以下文章来源于妙投APP ，作者Eastland 2025年12月1日，吉利汽车（ HK：00175 ）披露了"十一月销量"——前11个月累计售出278.8万辆、 同比增长42%；其中新能源车153.4万辆、同比增长97.4%。 根据各车企公布的2025年1~11月销量数据，销量排名前五的是：比亚迪（ 418.2万 ）、上汽集团（ 410.8万 ）、吉利汽车、长安汽车（ 265.8万 ）、奇瑞汽车（ 240万 ）。 本文分析吉利汽车销量的增长潜力。 总销量涨势喜人 1）即将突破300万大关 妙投APP . 虎嗅旗下二级市场投研服务品牌，为您提供精选上市公司价值拆解，热门赛道产业链梳理 作者｜Eastland 头图｜视觉中国 2017年，吉利汽车销量首次突破100万辆——全年销128万辆、同比增长41.6%，超额完成销量目标 （ 110万辆 ）。 2018年~2022年，吉利汽车连续五年没有完成年初公布的销量目标。其中2019年、2020年销量连续 负增长。 2023年，吉利汽车终于完成年初公布的销量目标。 2024年H1，吉利汽车累积销量达95.6万辆，超过全年目标的50%。由于下半年销量通常大于上半 年，吉 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market for range-extended electric vehicles (EREVs) is experiencing slower growth compared to pure electric vehicles (BEVs), with an increasing number of manufacturers entering the EREV segment, yet the sales growth of EREVs is lagging behind that of BEVs and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) [1][3][12]. Market Overview - The new Arcfox Alpha T5, a mid-size SUV featuring a range-extended power system, was launched on October 28, marking the brand's first model with this technology [1]. - Xiaopeng Motors is set to unveil the Xiaopeng X9 super range extender in November, while GAC Aion's i60 will also debut in the same month, both being the brands' first forays into range-extended vehicles [3]. - By 2025, over 20 range-extended models are expected to be released or planned, indicating a growing interest in this segment [3]. Sales Data - In September, the wholesale sales of pure electric vehicles reached 947,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 32.4% and a month-on-month increase of 16.2%. In contrast, EREV sales were 129,000 units, with a year-on-year growth of 8.7% and a month-on-month increase of 24.1% [3][4]. - The market share of pure electric vehicles was 63% in September, while EREVs accounted for 9%, showing a decline in market share for EREVs compared to previous periods [5]. Competitive Landscape - EREV manufacturers are shifting their strategies to enhance battery capacity and electric range, moving from a "small battery + large range extender" model to a "large battery + small range extender" approach [7][10]. - Recent models like the ZunJie S800 and Xiaopeng X9 feature significantly larger battery capacities compared to earlier EREV models, which may enhance their competitiveness against BEVs [9]. Future Trends - There is a consensus that EREVs will continue to have a role in the market, particularly for consumers in areas with limited charging infrastructure [11][12]. - The automotive industry is expected to see a shift towards pure electric vehicles, with projections indicating that by 2040, 80% of new energy vehicles will be pure electric [13].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of new models with range-extended power systems indicates a growing interest in this segment, but the market for range-extended vehicles is showing signs of stagnation in sales growth compared to pure electric vehicles [1][3][4]. Industry Overview - The new Arcfox Alpha T5, a mid-size SUV, is the first model from the brand to feature a range-extended power system, highlighting a trend among manufacturers to explore this technology [1]. - Other brands like XPeng and GAC Aion are also set to introduce their first range-extended models in November, indicating a competitive push in this segment [3]. Sales Data - In September, wholesale sales of pure electric vehicles reached 947,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 32.4% and a month-on-month increase of 16.2%. In contrast, range-extended vehicle sales were 129,000 units, with a year-on-year growth of only 8.7% [4][5]. - The market share of pure electric vehicles was 63% in September, while range-extended vehicles accounted for only 9%, reflecting a decline in their market presence [7]. Market Trends - The number of announced or planned range-extended models is expected to exceed 20 by 2025, indicating a crowded market [3]. - Despite the influx of new models, the growth rate of range-extended vehicles is lagging behind that of pure electric vehicles, which are benefiting from lower battery costs and technological advancements [7][8]. Technological Developments - Manufacturers are shifting towards larger battery capacities in range-extended vehicles, moving from "small battery + large range extender" to "large battery + small range extender" configurations [9][10]. - The introduction of 800V or 900V architectures in lower-priced models is expected to enhance charging speeds, addressing consumer concerns about charging infrastructure [8]. Future Outlook - There is a consensus that range-extended vehicles will continue to have a place in the market, particularly for consumers in areas with limited charging infrastructure [12][13]. - Projections suggest that by 2040, pure electric vehicles will dominate the market, with an expected penetration rate of 85%, of which 80% will be pure electric models [13].

Core Insights - BYD launched the second generation of Qin PLUS with three new models, aiming to lower the entry barrier for A-class sedans with prices starting at 69,800 yuan [2] - The expansion of the pure electric vehicle market is accelerating, becoming a preferred choice for many young consumers, highlighting the need for competitively priced electric sedans [2] - The second generation Qin PLUS EV features impressive range capabilities, utilizing a "blade battery + eight-in-one electric drive system" to enhance winter performance [2] Product Features - The second generation Qin PLUS EV offers two models with ranges of 420 km and 510 km, addressing the demand for high-quality driving experiences [2] - The Qin PLUS DM-i model has been optimized for fuel efficiency, achieving a NEDC fuel consumption of 2.69 liters per 100 km, balancing cost-effectiveness and environmental considerations [2] - The new models include significant upgrades in driving assistance and smart cockpit features, enhancing user experience through over-the-air (OTA) updates [3] Market Positioning - BYD's introduction of the new models and continuous OTA upgrades aims to meet the core needs of family users, reinforcing its leading position in the segmented market [3] - The company emphasizes the combination of cost-effectiveness, practicality, and intelligence in its A-class sedan offerings, catering to the evolving preferences of consumers [3]

Core Viewpoint - NIO's stock rose over 7.7% to $7.67, driven by strong sales performance of its electric vehicles and robust orders for the L90 and ES8 models, leading to upward revisions in sales and gross margin forecasts for 2026 and 2027 [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - Citigroup's research report indicates that NIO's electric vehicle sales are performing excellently, prompting an increase in sales forecasts to 500,000 units for 2026 and 571,000 units for 2027 [1] - The strong order intake for the L90 and ES8 models is a significant factor contributing to the positive sales outlook [1] Group 2: Financial Projections - Gross margin forecasts have been adjusted upward to 16.8% for 2026 and 18.1% for 2027, reflecting improved profitability expectations [1] - The adjustments in both sales and gross margin forecasts are based on enhanced visibility for electric vehicles in the industry [1] Group 3: Target Price and Ratings - Citigroup raised the target price for NIO's ADR from $8.10 to $8.60, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - NIO has been included in the observation list for potential upward catalysts over the next 30 days [1]

Core Viewpoint - NIO's stock has seen a rise of over 3% following the announcement of new vehicle launches during NIO Day 2025, indicating positive market sentiment towards the company [1] Group 1: Vehicle Launches - NIO Day 2025 was held on September 20, where the company officially launched the new ES8, priced starting at 406,800 yuan, with a battery rental option starting at 298,800 yuan [1] - The new ES8 offers three variants: a 7-seat luxury version, a 6-seat luxury version, and a 6-seat signature version [1] - Additionally, the ET9 Horizon Special Edition was announced, with deliveries set to begin at the end of September 2025 [1] Group 2: Market Analysis and Forecasts - Morgan Stanley's report suggests that the successful launch of the L90 and ES8 models may change market perceptions of NIO's stock and support a projected sales growth of 25%-30% for 2026 [1] - Citigroup has raised its sales forecasts for NIO to 500,000 units for 2026 and 571,000 units for 2027, citing strong order volumes for the L90 and ES8 models [1] - Citigroup also adjusted its gross margin forecasts to 16.8% for 2026 and 18.1% for 2027, placing NIO on a watchlist for potential upward catalysts in the next 30 days [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that the rental costs for Tesla electric vehicles in the UK have dropped nearly by half compared to a year ago [1] - To boost sales, Tesla has reportedly offered discounts of up to 40% to car rental companies [1] - The discount strategy is attributed to a significant inventory backlog of vehicles in the UK [1] Group 2 - According to the latest data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), Tesla's sales in the UK plummeted by approximately 60% year-on-year in July, with only 987 units sold [1] - In the same period, the overall new car registrations in the UK decreased by about 5% year-on-year [1] - SMMT has slightly adjusted its forecast for the share of pure electric vehicles in new car registrations for 2025 to 23.8%, up from the previous estimate of 23.5% [1]

理想：二季度将是公司今年最困难季度 一个 OpenAI 核心团队的最后三个月 柳青升任滴滴永久合伙人 关注《晚点财经》并设为星标，第一时间获取每日商业精华。 理想：二季度将是公司今年最困难季度 按计划理想今年会销售包括 MEGA 在内的 4 款纯电车型。但在今年的逆风开场后，理想汽车 5 月 20 日 宣布年内不发布新的纯电车型。公司创始人兼 CEO 李想承认，"今年以来我们面临内部经营和外部环境 变化的多重挑战"。 理想管理层在业绩会上说，在增加基础设施和销售曝光以及降价之后，销售势头改善，公司对未来月度 销量增长持乐观态度，但同时预警 "第二季度将是公司今年最困难的季度"。盘前理想跌超 8%，开盘后 跌幅扩大至 15% 以上。 李想在回答有关后续定价策略时的提问时说，目前 L7、L8、L9 新增订单量每周增长，没有任何降价计 划，并提出作为一家健康的企业，销量和毛利率是两个最重要的营运指标。理想预期二季度收入在 299 亿元至 314 亿元，交付量在 10.5 万辆至 11 万辆之间。按照下限估算不含税的平均售价为 27 万元左右， 大约是 2022 年初的水平。 它们账面存货水平来到 121 亿元高位， ...