来源：宏观对冲陈凯丰Kevin 在大宗商品方面，高盛商品指数和彭博商品指数均处于年度再平衡的初期阶段。鉴于自去年1月以来金 属（白银、黄金、铜）价格飙升，在其他条件不变的情况下，未来一周可能会出现一些自然的抛售压 力，但会被能源产品（石油、天然气）的买盘所抵消。 受地缘政治担忧影响，美国国债上涨。一些报道将此归因于ADP就业数据略显疲软，但考虑到JOLTS数 据更为积极，我们对此持保留意见。所有人的目光都集中在周五更全面的就业报告上。 欧洲和日本的利率市场也因地缘政治担忧而出现类似走势。多个国家（欧元区、澳大利亚、台湾）的通 胀数据均符合预期，没有出现重大意外。彭博社报道称，全球最大的债券市场——日本债券市场——即 将迎来又一个充满挑战的一年，政府债券净发行量将创下十多年来的最大增幅。 外汇和大宗商品 据《巴伦周刊》报道，黄金正在与美国国债竞争，力争成为各国政府最大的储备资产，这进一步提升了 黄金的吸引力。 股票 美国股市下跌，午后交易疲软。下跌的股票数量几乎是上涨股票数量的四倍，11个板块中有8个收跌。 公用事业板块跌幅最大，为2025年4月解放日以来的最大跌幅。 欧洲股市从历史高位回落，能源股拖累大盘。瑞 ...

2025年贵金属市场迎来"超级牛市"，现货白银和现货黄金年度涨幅分别高达148%和65%，创下1979年以来最佳年度表现，远超英伟达、微软等科技巨头 股价涨幅。本周四（1月8日），白银和黄金即将迎来新年的"第一道坎"：彭博商品指数重新加权所带来的抛售压力。 除指数调仓外，1月9日公布的美国12月新增非农就业人数及失业率数据，将成为影响黄金价格的另一关键变量。宏源期货研究所分析师王文虎指出，短期 需重点关注这两大事件，伦敦金价当前需警惕4150-4250美元/盎司支撑位，同时关注4450-4550美元/盎司区间压力。 黄金白银将迎新年"第一劫" 作为全球大宗商品核心基准，管理规模约1090亿美元的彭博商品指数（BCOM）将于1月8日至14日启动年度权重再平衡。这一例行调整因2025年贵金属的 爆发式上涨而备受关注，被动型基金为贴合新权重将被迫进行大额抛售。 当前白银在该指数中占比达9%，而2026年目标权重将降至4%以下，仅此一项调整就可能引发近50亿美元的白银持仓抛售。机构对抛售规模的预期存在差 异：摩根大通分析师格雷戈里·谢勒预警，此次再平衡可能导致38亿美元白银和47亿美元黄金抛售；道明证券高级商品策略师 ...

在经历了去年一年创纪录的上涨之后，本周四（1月8日），白银和黄金即将迎来新年的"第一道坎"：彭博商品指数重新加权所带来的抛售 压力。 此外，目前，白银在该指数中的占比为9%，而其2026年的目标权重略低于4%。以此计算，在1月8日至14日期间，预计有近50亿美元的 白银持仓被抛售。 黄金白银将迎新年"第一劫" 去年，贵金属价格大幅上涨，现货白银和现货黄金分别上涨了约148%和约65%，创下了自1979年以来的最大年度涨幅，甚至超过了像英 伟达、微软和苹果这样的科技巨头的股价涨幅。 然而，摩根大通警告称，彭博商品指数的年度权重再平衡即将到来，这可能会抑制贵金属近期的波动。 彭博商品指数作为一篮子大宗商品的基准指数，约1090亿美元的资金追踪该指数。从1月8日至1月14日期间，该指数将进行权重再平衡。 摩根大通分析师格雷戈里·谢勒（Gregory Shearer）此前已经警告称，这可能会导致约38亿美元白银和47亿美元黄金的抛售。 其他分析师预计的抛售规模更大。道明证券高级商品策略师丹尼尔·加利（Daniel Ghali）预计，从1月8日开始的再平衡期间，可能会有约 60亿美元的黄金期货被抛售。 准确 快速 权威 ...

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing significant volatility, with recent price fluctuations highlighting both short-term risks and long-term bullish fundamentals [1][3][4]. Short-term Risks - The first risk is tax-driven selling, as investors holding substantial unrealized gains may sell before December 31 to benefit from long-term capital gains tax rates, leading to selling pressure in late December [6]. - The second risk involves a potential strengthening of the US dollar, driven by strong GDP growth data, which typically exerts pressure on dollar-denominated commodities [7]. - The third risk is the increase in margin requirements announced by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, which could reduce leverage and speculative demand, although current margin levels are significantly higher than during the 2011 silver price crash [8][9][10]. - The fourth risk is technical selling due to silver being in an "overbought" condition, although this assessment is contested by some analysts who attribute price increases to structural demand rather than mere technical factors [11]. - The fifth risk is the threat of copper substitution in solar manufacturing, which could lead to technical selling despite the long lead time required for such a transition [13][14]. Market Dynamics - The Bloomberg Commodity Index is set for a significant rebalancing in January 2026, which may force passive funds to sell approximately 9% of their silver futures positions, exacerbating market volatility [15][16]. Long-term Fundamentals - Despite short-term risks, the long-term outlook for silver remains strong, supported by structural supply-demand imbalances. Current spot prices in various markets indicate significant premiums over futures prices, suggesting physical market tightness [17][18]. - Investment demand is not overly crowded, with speculative net long positions in silver at 19% of open interest compared to 31% in gold, indicating potential for further price increases [19]. - The solar industry is projected to significantly increase its silver demand, with expectations of 290 million ounces in 2025 and 450 million ounces by 2030, fundamentally altering the silver market landscape [21]. - The rising power demand from data centers and artificial intelligence further reinforces the silver market's dynamics, as solar energy, which requires silver, becomes increasingly critical [21].

智通财经记者 | 刘婷 此外，中金公司研究部大类资产配置研究员李昭表示，财政与货币因素持续叠加，让投资者对美元体系与美元资产的信 心下降，导致美元进入贬值周期，今年美元指数已经下跌10%左右。另外，近期委内瑞拉局势升级叠加俄乌冲突陷入谈 判僵局，全球地缘风险升级，也使得具有避险属性的黄金相对受益。 王文虎指出，本轮黄金牛市除了短期看涨情绪的释放外，也有中长期宏观经济周期的支撑。从经济学来看，当前全球经 济处于康波周期萧条阶段，在这个阶段，全球主要国家债务膨胀的预期增强，引导信用货币本位向金属货币本位回归。 "比如，从德国9000亿欧元投资计划到美国'大漂亮'法案将债务上限提高5万亿美元，从日本21.3万亿日元经济刺激方案 到英国扩大至220亿英镑的财政缓冲空间，中国等全球多个国家亦存在财政宽松预期，而这些都将以财政赤字货币化的 形式呈现，最终提升黄金等金属的金融属性。"王文虎表示。 周一伦敦现货黄金在创下历史新高后跳水，收盘报4331.96美元/盎司，较上日跌4.4%，较盘中最高4550.52美元/盎司跌 4.8%。分析师表示，短期金市可能仍会获利回吐，但支撑本轮黄金牛市的中长期因素仍在，预计2026年黄金价 ...

分析师点评 市场数据 2025 年 12 月 25 日 晨会速递 总量研究 【宏观】黄金权重下调，需要担忧么？——《光大投资时钟》第二十八篇 近期市场担忧明年 1 月彭博商品指数再平衡或带来黄金集中抛售，引发技术性调整。 但历史上看 2024 年和 2025 年也曾经出现类似情况，但对市场并未造成冲击。一方 面，指数调整涉及到的资金体量并不大，对市场流动性影响有限；另一方面，部分参 与者可能会提前预判甚至"抢跑"。考虑到明年 1 月金价上升势头或延续，市场成交 量或较为活跃，指数再平衡带来的技术性抛压影响相对有限。 【宏观】关税扰动边际消退，美国经济增速回升——2025 年三季度美国经济数据点 评 美国 2025 年三季度 GDP 环比增速回升，主要来自"抢进口"效应减弱、对美采购增 加下的净出口贡献，消费在关税扰动消退后也开始修复。其中，个人消费与净出口分 别拉动 GDP 增速 2.4 个、1.6 个百分点。从降息角度看，受政府停摆影响，四季度美 国 GDP 增速或再次承压，但基数效应下，明年一季度美国经济数据或显著上行，美 联储在 2026 年一季度暂缓降息的概率较大。 【债券】商业银行大幅增持利率债—— ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In H1 2025, the commodity market showed a narrow - range oscillation, with the CSI Commodity Futures Index rising slightly by 0.20%. Positive returns mainly came from gold, silver, and copper, while negative returns were mainly from rebar, rubber, and soda ash [2]. - The CSI Commodity Index's year - on - year sequence has bottomed out and rebounded, potentially indicating that the PPI sequence is in the process of bottoming out and rebounding. Microscopically, the sector index trends reflect certain operational pressures in the steel and chemical industries [2]. - Investors should gradually reduce their reliance on fixed - income assets and practice the methodology of stock - bond - commodity asset allocation, increasing the proportion of commodities in the portfolio [2]. - The CSI Commodity Index has shown a relatively independent and excellent performance compared to overseas indices, but the recent increase in correlation needs attention. Adding an appropriate amount of commodities to the traditional stock - commodity portfolio can significantly improve the return - risk ratio of the portfolio [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - In H1 2025, the commodity market presented a narrow - range oscillation. The CSI Commodity Index rose slightly by 0.20% annually, with an amplitude of only 10.27%. It was difficult to form a long - term trend, showing an inverted V - shaped oscillation after a strong start [9]. - Driven by frequent macro - events, the commodity market was repeatedly disturbed by policies and geopolitics. With the global economy still bottoming out, the demand side was weak, especially for industrial products. Three macro black - swan events occurred in H1 [12][14]. - There were two obvious characteristics in the commodity market: the significant differentiation between agricultural and industrial products, and the further differentiation within commodities due to different types of event shocks [15]. 3.2 Index Return Attribution 3.2.1 Roll Yield Contribution - The roll yield in H1 2025 was positive overall, at 1.07%, an improvement compared to 2024, possibly suggesting that the global economic growth is bottoming out. Most months had positive roll yields, except for March which had a large negative value [20]. 3.2.2 Sector Return Contribution - In H1 2025, the trends of industrial and agricultural products diverged. The agricultural product market had a small price increase and relatively low volatility, while the industrial product market had a large price decline and relatively large amplitude fluctuations. Agricultural products outperformed industrial products in most months [23]. 3.2.3 Variety Return Contribution - At the sector level, black and energy - chemical sectors mostly made negative return contributions, while precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products mostly made positive return contributions. At the variety level, gold, silver, and copper had large positive return contributions, while rebar, rubber, and soda ash had large negative return contributions [24]. 3.3 Macro - Micro Representativeness 3.3.1 Macro Level: The CSI Commodity Index Leads PPI by About 2 Months - The CSI Commodity Index's year - on - year sequence is highly correlated with the PPI year - on - year and can lead by about 2 months. Recently, the commodity index's year - on - year sequence has bottomed out and rebounded, perhaps indicating that the PPI sequence is bottoming out and rebounding [25]. 3.3.2 Micro Level: The Sector Index Moves in Sync with the Industry's Total Profits - The year - on - year sequence of the sub - sector index is highly correlated with the year - on - year sequence of the corresponding industry's total profits. The energy - chemical futures index is in the process of bottoming out, and the steel futures index is still finding its bottom [29]. 3.4 Comparison of Major Asset Classes - In the long - term, the commodity market has similar returns but lower risks compared to the equity market. In H1 2025, the commodity market's risk indicators were still better than those of the equity market [38][39]. - The current risk - free interest rate is quite low, and the investment cost - performance of bonds has declined significantly. Investors should gradually practice the methodology of major asset allocation and increase the proportion of commodities in the portfolio [40]. - Since 2024, the correlation between the commodity market and the equity market has been increasing. In H1 2025, the correlation remained relatively high, but it decreased rapidly at the end of June [43]. 3.5 Comparison with Overseas Indices - In the long - term, the CSI Commodity Index has obvious advantages in both returns and risks compared to overseas mainstream commodity indices. In H1 2025, it still had better performance in risk control [47][48]. - The correlation between the CSI Commodity Index and overseas mainstream commodity indices increased rapidly in early April and remained high in Q2, mainly due to the impact of the tariff shock [50]. 3.6 Application Cases - Adding an appropriate amount of commodities to the traditional stock - commodity portfolio can significantly improve the return - risk ratio of the portfolio. Replacing half of the stocks in the traditional 40 - 60 stock - bond portfolio with commodities can significantly reduce the portfolio's volatility and drawdown while keeping the returns similar [54][60].