重点关注 股指期货全景日报 2025/11/20 | 数据指标 | 项目类别 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF主力合约（2512） 4539.2 | | | -31.6↓ IF次主力合约（2511） | 4558.0 | -28.8↓ | | IH主力合约（2512） 3002.6 | | | -14.8↓ IH次主力合约（2511） | 3008.6 | -14.8↓ | | IC主力合约（2512） 7000.0 | | | -59.6↓ IC次主力合约（2511） | 7063.4 | -63.0↓ | | IM主力合约（2512） 7263.6 | | | -35.2↓ IM次主力合约（2511） | 7347.6 | -41.6↓ | | IF-IH当月合约价差 1549.4 | 期货盘面 | | -16.0↓ IC-IF当月合约价差 | 2505.4 | -27.8↓ | | IM-IC当月合约价差 284.2 | | | +10.4↑ IC-IH当月合约价差 | 4054.8 | -43.8 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 13, 2025, the central bank announced the financial statistics for October 2025. M2 increased by 8.2% year - on - year, M1 increased by 6.2% year - on - year. The stock of social financing scale at the end of October 2025 increased by 8.5% year - on - year, and the cumulative increase in social financing scale in the first ten months of 2025 was 30.9 trillion yuan, 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1][12]. - The year - on - year growth rate of social financing in October was 8.50%, with the growth rate falling for three consecutive months. New social financing was 81.5 billion yuan, 58.08 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Government bond financing slowed down, and credit demand was weak [2][13]. - M1 declined, and the gap between M1 and M2 widened slightly. However, the M1 - M2 gap has been narrowing overall this year, which is an important signal of capital activation and can boost the sentiment of the equity market in the short term [3][25]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Social Financing Data Validates Bond Market Space - **Social Financing Growth Rate and Composition**: The year - on - year growth rate of social financing in October was 8.50%, with the growth rate falling for three consecutive months. New social financing was 81.5 billion yuan, 58.08 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Government bond net financing was 48.93 billion yuan, 56.02 billion yuan less than the same period last year. New RMB loans decreased by 2.01 billion yuan, 31.66 billion yuan more than the same period last year. In direct financing, corporate bond net financing was 24.69 billion yuan, 14.82 billion yuan more than the same period last year, and non - financial enterprise domestic stock financing was 6.96 billion yuan, 4.12 billion yuan more than the same period last year. The new non - standard financing decreased by 10.85 billion yuan, 3.58 billion yuan less than the same period last year [2][13]. - **Credit Demand**: New RMB loans by financial institutions in October were 22 billion yuan, 28 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Corporate loans increased by 35 billion yuan, 22 billion yuan more than the same period last year, with obvious bill impulse, and corporate medium - and long - term loans increased by 3 billion yuan, 14 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Resident loans decreased by 36.04 billion yuan, 52.04 billion yuan more than the same period last year, indicating weak demand in the real estate market [2][14]. 3.2 M1 - M2 Spread and Capital Activation - **M1 and M2 Trends**: In October, M2 increased by 8.20% year - on - year, down 0.2 percentage points, and M1 increased by 6.20% year - on - year, with the growth rate down 1.0 percentage point compared with the previous value. The absolute value of the M1 - M2 gap widened slightly to 2.00pct, but it has been narrowing overall this year, which is a signal of capital activation and can boost the equity market sentiment in the short term. The growth rate difference between social financing and M2 in October was 0.30pct [3][25]. - **Deposit Changes**: In October, household deposits decreased by 134 billion yuan, 77 billion yuan more than the same period last year; non - financial enterprise deposits decreased by 108.53 billion yuan, 35.53 billion yuan more than the same period last year; fiscal deposits increased by 72 billion yuan, 12.48 billion yuan more than the same period last year; non - banking financial institution deposits increased by 185 billion yuan, 77 billion yuan more than the same period last year, which may promote further capital activation [3][25]. 3.3 Investment Advice - **Equity Market**: The recent narrowing of the M1 - M2 gap is an important signal of capital activation, which can boost the equity market sentiment in the short term, but the sustainability of the rebound depends on fundamental improvement and policy coordination [4][35]. - **Bond Market**: The social financing data in October shows that the growth rate of social financing has declined. The data verifies the uncertainty of the economic recovery. The bond yield has declined recently, and there is still some room for further decline. In 2026, the central bank's monetary policy will continue the "moderately loose" tone. For the bond market, investors are advised to mainly conduct band operations on interest - rate bonds, pay attention to the structural opportunities of green bonds and technology bonds in credit bonds, dynamically adjust the stock - bond ratio, and pay attention to elastic assets such as pro - cyclical convertible bonds [4][38].

Core Viewpoint - The financial data for October indicates a continued decline in credit growth, while social financing and M2 growth remain relatively high, reflecting strong financial support for the real economy [2][3]. Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In October, new RMB loans amounted to 220 billion, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.07 trillion and a year-on-year decrease of 280 billion, leading to a loan growth rate of 6.5%, the lowest on record [6][7]. - The total social financing scale at the end of October was 437.72 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 8.5% [8]. - M2 growth was 8.2% year-on-year, slightly down by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, while M1 grew by 6.2% year-on-year [3][4]. Group 2: Loan and Financing Structure - The M1-M2 spread was 2%, indicating a solid trend of funds being converted into demand deposits, reflecting good activity in corporate operations and personal consumption [4][5]. - The structure of financing is shifting, with non-loan financing methods now accounting for over half of the total social financing increment, indicating a diversification in corporate financing channels [9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - There may be a new round of reserve requirement ratio cuts and potential interest rate reductions by the central bank before the end of the year, aimed at directing financial resources towards key sectors such as technology innovation and small enterprises [10].

Industry Overview Upstream - Prices of aluminum and copper in the non - ferrous metals sector have rebounded; international oil prices and liquefied natural gas prices are fluctuating [2] Midstream - In the chemical industry, PX prices are rising, while the operating rates of PTA and polyester are low; power plant coal consumption has decreased [3] Downstream - In the real estate sector, the sales of commercial housing in second - and third - tier cities have seasonally increased slightly; in the service industry, the film box office is in the off - season, and the number of domestic flights has seasonally increased slightly [3] Macroeconomic Events Production Industry - China is designing a new rare - earth export licensing system, and the Ministry of Commerce will carry out export control work on rare - earth related items in accordance with laws and regulations [1] Service Industry - In the first ten months of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 30.9 trillion yuan, 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year; RMB loans increased by 14.97 trillion yuan. At the end of October, M2 balance was 335.13 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%; M1 balance was 112 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.2%; M0 balance was 13.55 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 10.6%. The narrowing gap between M1 and M2 indicates positive signals such as increased business activity and improved consumer demand [1] Key Industry Price Indicators | Industry | Indicator | Price | YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price of corn | 2161.4 yuan/ton | 0.40% | | | Spot price of eggs | 6.5 yuan/kg | 1.25% | | | Spot price of palm oil | 8710.0 yuan/ton | 0.11% | | | Spot price of cotton | 14819.5 yuan/ton | - 0.29% | | | Average wholesale price of pork | 18.1 yuan/kg | - 0.60% | | Non - ferrous metals | Spot price of copper | 87301.7 yuan/ton | 1.59% | | | Spot price of zinc | 22618.0 yuan/ton | 0.63% | | | Spot price of aluminum | 21933.3 yuan/ton | 2.60% | | | Spot price of nickel | 121150.0 yuan/ton | - 0.03% | | | Spot price of aluminum | 17606.3 yuan/ton | 1.51% | | Ferrous metals | Spot price of rebar | 3133.0 yuan/ton | 0.00% | | | Spot price of iron ore | 794.7 yuan/ton | - 0.08% | | | Spot price of wire rod | 3302.5 yuan/ton | - 0.08% | | | Spot price of glass | 14.0 yuan/square meter | - 1.06% | | Non - metals | Spot price of natural rubber | 14883.3 yuan/ton | 1.82% | | | China Plastics City Price Index | 772.0 | - 0.58% | | Energy | Spot price of WTI crude oil | 58.5 dollars/barrel | - 1.86% | | | Spot price of Brent crude oil | 62.7 dollars/barrel | - 1.28% | | | Spot price of liquefied natural gas | 4206.0 yuan/ton | - 1.91% | | | Coal price | 834.0 yuan/ton | 1.21% | | Chemical | Spot price of PTA | 4591.6 yuan/ton | 0.67% | | | Spot price of polyethylene | 6988.3 yuan/ton | 0.02% | | | Spot price of urea | 1630.0 yuan/ton | 2.03% | | | Spot price of soda ash | 1214.3 yuan/ton | 0.89% | | Real estate | Cement price index | 136.4 | - 0.16% | | | Building materials composite index | 112.3 points | 0.42% | | | Concrete price index | 90.8 points | - 0.14% | [38]

中国人民银行11月13日发布的10月金融数据显示，广义货币（M2）和社会融资规模同比增速均保 持在较高水平，持续为经济回升向好创造适宜的货币金融环境；贷款规模保持合理增长，信贷结构持续 优化。 专家表示，未来央行将继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策，把握好力度和节奏，保持对实体经济较强 支持力度。 政府债券带动社融增长 社融方面，10月末社会融资规模存量为437.72万亿元，同比增长8.5%；前10个月社会融资规模增量 累计为30.9万亿元，比上年同期多3.83万亿元。 "国债和特殊再融资债券等政府债券发行进度较快、企业债券发行热度较高，均对社会融资规模增 长形成重要支撑。"专家分析称。 据市场人士测算，今年1-10月，政府债券累计发行规模约22万亿元，比去年同期多近4万亿元，企 业发债融资也高于去年同期。"2025年超长期特别国债发行规模从去年的1万亿元扩大至1.3万亿元，首 发时间比去年提前约一个月，发行完毕时间也相应提前，体现出财政对经济增长及需求拉动的支持，也 带动了社会融资规模增长。"上述人士说。 数据显示，10月末，M2余额335.13万亿元，同比增长8.2%；狭义货币（M1）余额112万亿元，同 比增 ...

中国人民银行11月13日发布的10月金融数据显示，广义货币(M2)和社会融资规模同比增速均保持在较 高水平，持续为经济回升向好创造适宜的货币金融环境；贷款规模保持合理增长，信贷结构持续优化。 专家表示，未来央行将继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策，把握好力度和节奏，保持对实体经济较强支持 力度。 政府债券带动社融增长 贷款结构持续优化 10月金融总量保持合理增长，为实体经济提供有力有效的金融支撑。从物价角度看，支持性货币政策促 进物价回升的效果将持续显现。 社融方面，10月末社会融资规模存量为437.72万亿元，同比增长8.5%；前10个月社会融资规模增量累计 为30.9万亿元，比上年同期多3.83万亿元。 "国债和特殊再融资债券等政府债券发行进度较快、企业债券发行热度较高，均对社会融资规模增长形 成重要支撑。"专家分析称。 据市场人士测算，今年1-10月，政府债券累计发行规模约22万亿元，比去年同期多近4万亿元，企业发 债融资也高于去年同期。"2025年超长期特别国债发行规模从去年的1万亿元扩大至1.3万亿元，首发时 间比去年提前约一个月，发行完毕时间也相应提前，体现出财政对经济增长及需求拉动的支持，也带动 了社 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China reported that in October, both the broad money supply (M2) and the social financing scale maintained a high year-on-year growth rate, creating a favorable monetary environment for economic recovery [1] Group 1: Social Financing - As of the end of October, the total social financing scale was 437.72 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.5%. The cumulative increase in the first ten months was 30.9 trillion yuan, which is 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [2] - The issuance of government bonds, including special refinancing bonds, has accelerated, significantly supporting the growth of social financing. In the first ten months of this year, the cumulative issuance of government bonds was approximately 22 trillion yuan, nearly 4 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [2] - The M2 balance at the end of October was 335.13 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.2%, while the narrow money supply (M1) was 112 trillion yuan, growing by 6.2% year-on-year [2] Group 2: Loan Structure - The balance of RMB loans at the end of October was 270.61 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.5%. In the first ten months, RMB loans increased by 14.97 trillion yuan [3] - The structure of loans is continuously optimizing, with inclusive small and micro loans at 35.77 trillion yuan, growing by 11.6% year-on-year, and medium to long-term loans for the manufacturing sector at 14.97 trillion yuan, growing by 7.9% [3] - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans was 3.1%, approximately 40 basis points lower than the same period last year, while the average interest rate for new personal housing loans was also 3.1%, about 8 basis points lower year-on-year [3] Group 3: Price Recovery - The financial total in October maintained reasonable growth, providing strong financial support for the real economy. Supportive monetary policy is expected to continue promoting price recovery [4] - The growth rates of social financing scale and M2 have consistently remained above 8%, exceeding the nominal GDP growth rate by about 4 percentage points [4] - The effects of previous monetary policy adjustments are expected to continue to manifest, with the need for ongoing implementation of moderately loose monetary policy to maintain strong support for the real economy [5]

据市场人士测算，今年1至10月，政府债券累计发行规模约22万亿元，比去年同期多近4万亿元，企业发 债融资也高于去年同期。 中新社北京11月13日电 (记者夏宾)中国央行13日公布10月金融统计数据，三个关键指标的同比数据均有 提升。 具体看，2025年10月末，M2(广义货币)余额335.13万亿元(人民币，下同)，同比增长8.2%，比上年同期 高0.8个百分点，在上年同期基数提高的背景下，仍保持较高增速；社会融资规模存量437.72万亿元，同 比增长8.5%，比上年同期高0.7个百分点；今年1至10月，社会融资规模增量为30.9万亿元，同比多增 3.83万亿元。 金融数据三个"高增长"，意味着什么？ 一是发债热助社融增长。10月末，社会融资规模存量同比增长8.5%，业内专家认为，国债和特殊再融 资债券等政府债券发行进度较快、企业债券发行热度较高，均对社会融资规模增长形成重要支撑。 市场人士指出，货币政策虽然还有一定空间，但边际效率已明显下降。过度放松货币金融条件可能产生 的一些负面效果也需要关注。如，资金空转、资本市场波动加大等。未来要继续实施好适度宽松的货币 政策，把握好力度和节奏，保持对实体经济的较强支 ...

记者丨唐婧 编辑丨方海平 11月13日，中国人民银行发布《2025年10月金融统计数据报告》，政府债券快发多发对贷款 的替代效应继续显现。 具体来看，2025年10月末社会融资规模存量为437.72万亿元，同比增长8.5%。 其中，对实体 经济发放的人民币贷款余额为267.01万亿元，同比增长6.3%； 企业债券余额为33.68万亿 元，同比增长4.9%； 政府债券余额为93.03万亿元，同比增长19.2%。 从结构看， 10月末对实体经济发放的人民币贷款余额占同期社会融资规模存量的61%，同比 低1.3个百分点； 企业债券余额占比7.7%，同比低0.3个百分点； 政府债券余额占比21.3%， 同比高2个百分点。 从增量看，2025年前十个月社会融资规模增量累计为30.9万亿元，比上年同期多3.83万亿元。 其中， 对实体经济发放的人民币贷款增加14.52万亿元，同比少增1.16万亿元； 企业债券净融 资1.82万亿元，同比多1361亿元； 政府债券净融资11.95万亿元，同比多3.72万亿元。 分析人士指出，当前经济运行面临需求不足的挑战，通过加大政府债券发行规模，能够支持 重大项目和国家重大战略的实施，助 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent data from the central bank indicates a stable growth in monetary supply and social financing, reflecting a supportive monetary environment for economic recovery, while emphasizing the need for a diversified approach to support the real economy rather than solely focusing on credit quantity [1][6]. Monetary Supply and Financing Growth - As of the end of October, the broad money supply (M2) reached 335.13 trillion yuan, growing by 8.2% year-on-year, which is 0.8 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1]. - The total social financing stock was 437.72 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.5%, also 0.7 percentage points higher than the previous year [1]. - The incremental social financing from January to October was 30.9 trillion yuan, exceeding the previous year's figure by 3.83 trillion yuan [1]. Government Bond Issuance - The rapid issuance of government bonds, including treasury and special refinancing bonds, has significantly supported the growth of social financing [2]. - From January to October, the cumulative issuance of government bonds was approximately 22 trillion yuan, nearly 4 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [2]. - The issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds is expected to increase from 1 trillion yuan last year to 1.3 trillion yuan this year, indicating fiscal support for economic growth [2]. Credit Structure Optimization - In the first ten months, the increase in RMB loans to the real economy was 14.52 trillion yuan, which is a decrease of 1.16 trillion yuan year-on-year [3]. - The net financing from corporate bonds was 1.82 trillion yuan, an increase of 136.1 billion yuan year-on-year, while government bonds contributed 11.95 trillion yuan, up by 3.72 trillion yuan [3]. - The structure of credit is evolving, with a notable shift towards supporting major projects and strategic initiatives through government bond issuance [4]. Economic Transition and Financial Support - The growth of loans is transitioning from traditional sectors like infrastructure and real estate to emerging fields such as technological innovation and green development, reflecting the natural outcome of economic structural transformation [5]. - The leverage ratio of the government sector increased by 8.8 percentage points to 67.5% by the end of the third quarter, while the leverage ratios for non-financial enterprises and households saw slight changes [4]. Monetary Policy and Market Conditions - The narrow money supply (M1) reached 112 trillion yuan, growing by 6.2% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in business activity and consumer demand [6]. - The M1-M2 spread was -2%, showing a shift towards more funds being converted into demand deposits, which reflects positive signals in economic activity [6]. - While monetary policy remains supportive, experts caution that the marginal efficiency of such policies is declining, necessitating a balanced approach to maintain strong support for the real economy [6].