Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures fluctuated weakly. The Fed maintained the interest rate but kept the possibility of a rate cut. The US and the UK reached a tariff agreement, and China and the US held talks. China introduced a package of financial policies, and exports in April showed strong resilience, improving market risk appetite [3][9]. - Fundamentally, mines are steadily ramping up production, and processing fees at home and abroad have increased month - on - month. However, as zinc prices have fallen, mines are less willing to offer concessions, and the increase in processing fees has slowed. In May, smelters are both reducing and resuming production, and the output of refined zinc is expected to remain flat month - on - month. The import window for zinc ingots has gradually opened since late April, and some imported goods have flowed in recently, keeping the supply pressure at a relatively high level [4][9]. - On the demand side, after the holiday, enterprises resumed work, and the operating rates of various primary sectors increased to varying degrees. High - voltage orders supported the tower orders, but galvanized pipe enterprises planned to cut production due to price competition. Electronic alloy orders were good, while traditional hardware accessory orders were poor, and some alloy terminal export orders decreased recently. Orders for rubber - grade and feed - grade zinc oxide decreased, while ceramic - grade orders were stable [4][9]. - Overall, the China - US trade negotiations and the release of domestic favorable policies have restored market sentiment, but there is still uncertainty in tariff negotiations. Fundamentally, there is an expectation of marginal weakening. The high output of refined zinc and the supplement of imported zinc ingots keep the supply pressure high. As the peak season is coming to an end, the enthusiasm for purchasing and restocking has weakened, and the support of the low - inventory logic has been weakened. It is expected that zinc prices will fluctuate weakly to find support [4][9] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Transaction Data - From April 30th to May 9th, the SHFE zinc price dropped from 22,440 yuan/ton to 22,175 yuan/ton, a decrease of 265 yuan/ton; the LME zinc price rose from 2,588 dollars/ton to 2,636 dollars/ton, an increase of 48 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.67 to 8.41, a decrease of 0.26; the SHFE inventory decreased from 48,477 tons to 47,102 tons, a decrease of 1,375 tons; the LME inventory decreased from 173,900 tons to 170,650 tons, a decrease of 3,250 tons; the social inventory increased from 7.7 million tons to 8.33 million tons, an increase of 0.63 million tons; the spot premium increased from 160 yuan/ton to 500 yuan/ton, an increase of 340 yuan/ton [5] 2. Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai zinc futures, ZN2506, continued to fluctuate weakly, closing at 22,190 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 1.11%. LME zinc fluctuated sideways, closing at 2,655.5 dollars/ton, a weekly increase of 1.55% [6]. - In the spot market, by May 9th, the mainstream transaction price of Shanghai 0 zinc was concentrated between 22,825 - 22,955 yuan/ton, with a premium of 580 - 590 yuan/ton over the 2506 contract. In the second half of the week, the inflow of imported zinc ingots improved market arrivals, but downstream purchases were average, and traders gradually lowered the premium quotes, resulting in weak spot trading [6]. - In terms of inventory, by May 9th, the LME zinc inventory was 170,325 tons, a weekly decrease of 3,250 tons; the SHFE inventory was 47,102 tons, a decrease of 1,375 tons from last week. By May 8th, the social inventory was 8.33 million tons, an increase of 0.63 million tons from April 30th and a decrease of 0.08 million tons from May 6th [7]. - Macroscopically, the Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.5%. The FOMC statement said that the uncertainty of the economic outlook has further increased. Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will hold talks with US Treasury Secretary Bezant during his visit to Switzerland. The US and the UK reached a tariff trade agreement. China's three departments issued a package of financial policies, including a 0.5 - percentage - point cut in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.1 - percentage - point cut in policy interest rates. China's inflation remained low in April, with CPI at - 0.1% year - on - year and PPI at - 2.7% year - on - year. Exports maintained resilience, with an 8.1% growth rate in April [7][8] 3. Industry News - As of the week of May 9th, the weekly processing fees for domestic and foreign zinc concentrates were reported at 3,500 yuan/metal ton and 40 dollars/dry ton respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 50 yuan/metal ton for domestic and no change for foreign [10]. - A galvanizing plant in the north recently put into operation a new 150,000 - ton galvanizing production line, with a total designed capacity of 500,000 tons, expected to be fully put into production in 2027 [10]. - Lundin Mining's Neves - Corvo mine produced about 27,700 tons of zinc concentrate and about 2,000 tons of lead concentrate in the first quarter, up 4.5% and 24% year - on - year respectively; Zinkgruvan produced about 21,300 tons of zinc concentrate and about 7,600 tons of lead concentrate, up 10.7% and 12.4% year - on - year respectively. These two mines were officially acquired by Swedish mining company Boliden on April 16th this year [10]. - Teck is considering shifting the products of its Red Dog zinc mine in Alaska from the Chinese market to other regions to avoid tariff risks. The mine's output accounts for about 5% of the global zinc supply and 2.5% of lead, and currently more than 20% of its zinc concentrate is sold to China [11]. - Glencore's self - owned zinc production in Q1 2025 was 213,600 tons, 4% higher than in Q1 2024, and its self - owned zinc production guidance for 2025 is 930,000 - 990,000 tons [11]. - Volcan's zinc concentrate metal output in Q1 2025 totaled 57,400 tons, a 10% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 14% increase year - on - year. Its zinc concentrate production guidance for 2025 is 250,000 - 255,000 tons [11] 4. Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including price trends of Shanghai and LME zinc, internal and external price ratios, spot premiums and discounts, inventory situations, zinc ore processing fees, zinc ore import profits and losses, domestic refined zinc production, smelter profits, refined zinc net imports, and downstream primary enterprise operating rates [13][16][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, copper prices fluctuated at a high level. The start of Sino-US economic and trade talks eased the tense situation, and the market adopted a wait-and-see attitude. The Fed's hawkish stance delayed interest rate cuts, slightly boosting the US dollar. The negative effects of tariff shocks on the global economy gradually emerged, hindering the upward movement of copper prices. However, the shortage of refined copper overseas provided strong fundamental support. Domestically, a package of financial incremental policies by the central bank boosted market confidence, and China's acceleration of the domestic economic cycle and the construction of a strategic cooperation system with "Belt and Road" countries will effectively offset the negative impact of US tariffs [2][8]. - Overall, the Sino-US economic and trade meeting achieved substantial progress and reached important consensus, and the two sides will issue a joint statement soon. The Fed maintains a hawkish stance and delays interest rate cuts, and the unexpected recovery of the eurozone economy will continue to be loose. Domestically, the central bank has launched a package of financial incremental policy combinations to stabilize market confidence. Fundamentally, the medium-term tightening pattern of concentrates remains unchanged, the supply of imported refined copper in China is tight, the premium of Yangshan warehouse receipts is high, and social inventories continue to decline. It is expected that copper prices will remain volatile at a high level, waiting for the details of the Sino-US trade negotiations to be disclosed [3][12]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - LME copper rose from $9,125.50/ton on April 30 to $9,439.00/ton on May 9, an increase of $313.50 or 3.44% [4]. - COMEX copper rose from 461 cents/pound on April 30 to 465.4 cents/pound on May 9, an increase of 4.4 cents or 0.95% [4]. - SHFE copper rose from 77,220 yuan/ton on April 30 to 77,450 yuan/ton on May 9, an increase of 230 yuan or 0.30% [4]. - International copper rose from 68,470 yuan/ton on April 30 to 68,750 yuan/ton on May 9, an increase of 280 yuan or 0.41% [4]. - The Shanghai-London ratio decreased from 8.46 to 8.21 [4]. - The LME spot premium changed from -$6.80/ton on April 30 to $49.19/ton on May 9, an increase of $55.99 or -823.38% [4]. - The Shanghai spot premium decreased from 230 yuan/ton on April 30 to 80 yuan/ton on May 9, a decrease of 150 yuan [4]. - LME inventory decreased from 200,150 tons on April 30 to 191,775 tons on May 9, a decrease of 8,375 tons or 4.18% [7]. - COMEX inventory increased from 144,023 short tons on April 30 to 160,250 short tons on May 9, an increase of 16,227 short tons or 11.27% [7]. - SHFE inventory decreased from 89,289 tons on April 30 to 80,687 tons on May 9, a decrease of 8,602 tons or 9.63% [7]. - Shanghai bonded area inventory decreased from 93,500 tons on April 30 to 90,500 tons on May 9, a decrease of 3,000 tons or 3.21% [7]. - Total inventory decreased from 526,962 tons on April 30 to 523,212 tons on May 9, a decrease of 3,750 tons or 0.71% [7]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - Copper prices fluctuated at a high level last week. The start of Sino-US economic and trade talks eased the tense situation, and the market adopted a wait-and-see attitude. The Fed's hawkish stance delayed interest rate cuts, slightly boosting the US dollar. The negative effects of tariff shocks on the global economy gradually emerged, hindering the upward movement of copper prices. However, the shortage of refined copper overseas provided strong fundamental support. Domestically, a package of financial incremental policies by the central bank boosted market confidence, and China's acceleration of the domestic economic cycle and the construction of a strategic cooperation system with "Belt and Road" countries will effectively offset the negative impact of US tariffs [2][8]. - As of May 9, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area decreased to 523,000 tons, and the global inventory decreased slightly. Among them, LME copper inventory decreased by 10,000 tons, and the LME 0 - 3 shifted to a B structure, with the proportion of cancelled warrants continuing to rise to 43.1%. SHFE inventory decreased slightly by 8,000 tons, showing obvious characteristics of the consumption peak season. Bonded area inventory decreased by 3,000 tons. Last week, the Yangshan copper bill of lading premium rose to $110, reaching a two-year high. The COMEX US copper premium narrowed to $600 - 800/ton, but overseas deliverable supplies continued to flow into North America, causing the COMEX visible inventory to rise to 160,000 tons at a high level. The Shanghai-London ratio decreased to 8.21 mainly due to the recent significant appreciation of the RMB [8]. - Sino-US economic and trade high-level meetings are imminent. The global trade situation is gradually easing and moving in a favorable direction. The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25% - 4.5% in its May meeting, and Powell said that there is no need to rush to cut interest rates. Domestically, the central bank cut the 7-day reverse repurchase rate by 0.1% to 1.4% in early May, cut the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5%, and is expected to release about 1 trillion yuan of medium- and long-term liquidity into the market. The central bank also announced a series of other financial policies to boost the confidence of China's capital market [10]. - This week, the spot TC widened to -$43/ton. The global mine end's medium-term tightening pattern remains unchanged. In terms of refined copper, China's refined copper output in April was 1.126 million tons, continuing to rise month-on-month, but the imported supplies were scarce in early May. From the demand side, power grid investment projects have started one after another, and the operating rate of cable enterprises in April rebounded to 81.3%. The new energy vehicle production and sales growth rate exceeded 40%, and the traditional industry showed peak season characteristics. The domestic social inventory continued to decline significantly to around 12 tons, and the near-month contract on the disk maintained a large B structure [11]. 3.3 Industry News - First Quantum's copper production in the first quarter of 2025 was 99,700 tons, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 10.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%. Its 2025 copper guidance production is 380,000 - 440,000 tons (excluding the resumption of production of the Panama copper mine). The Kansanshi copper mine in Zambia had a copper production of 46,500 tons in the first quarter, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3%. The Kansanshi smelter plans to carry out a six-week maintenance shutdown in the second quarter of 2025. The SENTINEL copper mine in Zambia had a copper production of 46,400 tons in the first quarter, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 18%. The mine plans to carry out a four-day comprehensive maintenance shutdown in the second quarter of 2025 [13]. - Teck Resources' copper production in the first quarter of 2025 was 106,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.2% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 13.1%. The Highland Valley project in Canada had a copper production of 29,500 tons in the first quarter of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 16.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.4%. The QBII project in Chile had a copper production of 42,000 tons in the first quarter of this year, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 27.1%. The production in this quarter was affected by an 18-day shutdown in January and a power outage in late February [14]. - According to Mysteel research data, last week, the processing fee of 8mm T1 cable wire rods in East China rose to 500 - 650 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 50 yuan/ton from the previous week. After the holiday, the downstream replenishment willingness slowed down after the high-level fluctuation of copper prices, and the terminal orders were mainly for rigid demand procurement. It is expected that the operation of China's refined copper rod enterprises will continue to recover in mid-May [15]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report provides 18 charts, including the price trends of SHFE copper and LME copper, LME copper inventory, global visible inventory, SHFE and bonded area inventory, LME inventory and cancelled warrants, COMEX inventory and cancelled warrants, SHFE copper basis trend, etc. These charts are sourced from iFinD and Tongguan Jinyuan Futures [17][19][20].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The textile and apparel industry is experiencing a divergence in export performance between China and Vietnam, with China’s textile and apparel exports in April amounting to $24.2 billion, reflecting a growth of 1.5%, but a significant month-over-month decline of 11.4 percentage points [1] - In contrast, Vietnam's textile exports reached $3.07 billion, showing a robust growth of 17.7%, while footwear exports were $2.23 billion, up 20.5%, indicating a strong acceleration compared to the previous month [1] Key Insights - The upcoming US-China trade talks are viewed as a positive signal for the industry, with expectations of a rebound in high-quality manufacturing [1] - In Q1 2025, major brands in the apparel sector such as Anta, FILA, and 361 Degrees reported significant revenue growth, with increases ranging from 65% to 70% for high-end products [2] - The home textile sector, particularly brands like Luolai, showed better-than-expected profit recovery, while brands like Fuanna and Mercury experienced declines [2] - The performance of men's and women's clothing is mixed, with brands like HLA and Geli Si seeing strong profit recovery in youth apparel, while the children's clothing segment remains weak [2] Additional Important Points - A meeting was held in Shenzhen with various listed companies, including Anta, Li Ning, and 361 Degrees, to discuss current operations and future outlooks [3] - The management of a medical supply company emphasized their commitment to product innovation and comprehensive solutions in the medical field, focusing on smart manufacturing [3] - Investment analysis suggests a focus on domestic demand recovery in 2025, highlighting key areas such as sports and outdoor brands, discount retail, and policy-driven companies [3] - The global textile supply chain is evolving, with a clear direction towards the recovery of Nike's supply chain and the expansion of textile manufacturing overseas [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil and petrochemical industry [5] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risks remain high, with recent conflicts between India and Pakistan highlighting global uncertainties, leading to a rebound in oil prices. As of May 9, Brent and WTI crude oil prices increased by 4.0% and 4.6%, respectively, closing at $63.88 and $61.06 per barrel [1][2] - China's dependence on oil imports is projected to be 72% and natural gas imports at 43% in 2024, indicating significant external challenges to energy security amid geopolitical tensions and tariff conflicts. The "Big Three" oil companies in China are responding to national calls for increased reserves and production, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.6% in upstream capital expenditure from 2018 to 2024 [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring OPEC+ production decisions and the outcomes of U.S.-Iran negotiations, as these factors could significantly impact the oil supply outlook. The potential easing of sanctions on Iranian oil exports could disrupt oil prices [3] Summary by Sections Oil Supply and Demand Outlook - The report highlights multiple disturbances in the oil supply and demand landscape, including trade agreements and geopolitical negotiations that could affect oil prices and supply stability [3] - The report suggests that the long-term oil supply-demand structure remains favorable, supporting a positive outlook for the "Big Three" oil companies and oil service sectors [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the following companies: China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), Sinopec, CNOOC, and their respective oil service subsidiaries. It also suggests monitoring leading companies in the refining and chemical sectors, as well as coal chemical leaders and ethylene producers [4]

老铁们，我是帮主郑重。今天咱们来唠唠隔夜全球市场的跌宕起伏。美股这边刚收盘，道指跌了119点，纳指倒是微涨，但整体市场情绪就像热锅上的蚂蚁 ——中美经贸会谈周末就要开锣，特朗普那边又喊着要加80%关税，这戏码演得投资者心里直打鼓。 先说美股表现，道指这周累计跌了0.16%，纳指和标普也没好到哪儿去，全周都是绿盘报收。彭博社有个指标显示，标普500的回报前景已经跌到历史最差 阶段，说白了就是企业盈利预期被贸易摩擦这团乌云压得喘不过气。 特朗普这老爷子又出来刷存在感了，在Truth Social上喊话要对外国商品收80%关税，还甩锅给财长贝森特定夺。不过市场一听就懂——这哪是谈判前的示 好？分明是给谈判桌添堵。欧盟那边也不示弱，直接甩出950亿欧元的反制清单，烈酒、汽车零件全在清单上，这哪是关税战，简直是精准打击美国消费命 门。 科技股七巨头里，特斯拉成了夜空中最亮的星，周五涨了4.7%，英国市场被中国车企抢了风头，但资本更看重它未来的储能故事。反观谷歌、Meta这些老 面孔，本周累计跌了6%以上，AI概念退潮的迹象越来越明显。中概股这边冰火两重天，极氪暴涨7.79%，但网易、拼多多集体哑火，港股科技板块的寒气还 ...

*纳斯达克中国金龙指数小幅下跌。 周五美股窄幅波动，投资者等待周末重磅贸易谈判的结果。截至收盘，道指跌119.07点，跌幅0.29%， 报41249.38点，纳指微涨不到0.01%，报17928.92点，标普500指数跌0.07%，报5659.91点。道指周跌 0.16%，纳指周跌0.27%，标普500指数周跌0.47%。 市场概述 周四，市场对英国和美国之间达成的贸易协议表示欢迎，这是自美国总统特朗普宣布暂停关税90天以来 的首份协议。 据媒体援引消息人士的话称，印度已提出将与美国的关税差距从现在的近13%削减到不到4%，以换取 特朗普的关税豁免。 需求预期升温，国际油价反弹超1.5%。 *三大股指窄幅震荡，纳指平盘； *美联储巴尔：贸易关税可能推高通胀和失业率； 美联储理事巴尔表示，在预期的经济放缓中，美国政府的贸易关税可能会提高通货膨胀率和失业率。 中长期美债收益率窄幅波动，与利率预期关联密切的2年期美债跌1.2个基点至4.88%，基准10年期美债 平盘。市场定价显示，美联储有望在7月重启降息。 个股方面，特斯拉收涨4.7%，报道称，4月特斯拉在英国的销量被多家中国汽车制造商超越。 明星科技股涨跌互现， ...

2025 年 5 月 7 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 宏观及公司点评 全球市场观察 宏观经济 ◼ 美国经济 - 关税短期升成本作用超过降需求效应 美国 4 月服务业 PMI 超预期回升，商业活动延续扩张，需求小幅改善，关税 冲击尚未带来需求紧缩效应，反而通过刺激抢购囤货而带动零售、物流、仓 储和贸易活动；物价指数大幅反弹，与关税推升消费者通胀预期相一致。制 造业 PMI 收缩幅度扩大，生产指数大幅降至 2020 年 5 月以来新低；关税扰 动供应链导致交付时间变长，价格指数创近 3 年新高，企业库存下降。 招银国际研究部 数据公布后，美国 10 年国债利率上升 4bp 至 4.36%，市场对全年降息幅度预 期下降 3bp 至 76bp。短期内，关税推升成本作用超过降低需求效应，通胀反 弹风险大于失业上升风险，美联储在 5、6 月份可能保持政策利率不变。下半 年，随着需求收缩效应超过成本上升作用，就业市场可能明显放缓，通胀可 能见顶回落，美联储可能在 7 月或 9 月降息一次，11 月或 12 月再降一次。 （链接） 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market showed a strong performance on May 6, with nearly 5000 stocks rising, and certain concepts such as controllable nuclear fusion and rare earth permanent magnets surging. The market's trading volume increased to 1.36 trillion yuan. The market sentiment was positive, but it still faced challenges from external factors such as the Fed's interest - rate decision and international trade policies [7]. - Different sectors of commodities presented various trends. For example, most chemical products' prices increased on May 7 compared to May 6, while some agricultural products had mixed price movements. Each commodity had its own supply - demand relationship and influencing factors [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro News - China and the US will conduct economic and trade talks. Vice - Premier He Lifeng will meet with US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen during his visit to Switzerland [7]. - The A - share market had a good start after the "May Day" holiday. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.13%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.84%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.97%, and the Northbound 50 Index rose 3.21%. The market trading volume reached 1.36 trillion yuan [7]. - China will adopt more proactive macro - policies and is confident in achieving the 5% growth target in 2025. It will continue to build a unified domestic market and expand high - level opening - up [7]. - Apple AI may launch some functions in the Chinese mainland in the iOS 18.6 system, with Baidu Wenxin Yiyan as the core cloud intelligent engine and Alibaba providing the review mechanism. Also, Apple may change the iPhone release pattern from 2026 [7]. - Xiaomi is accelerating the development of self - developed SoC chips, with a team of about 1000 employees operating independently. The new - generation chip's performance is comparable to Qualcomm Snapdragon 8 Gen2 [8]. - The Fed is facing a dilemma, and there are hints that it may postpone interest - rate cuts. The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in May, and is more concerned about Fed Chairman Powell's policy stance [8]. - The EU will formulate counter - measures against US tariffs on EU products, with an expected impact on 549 billion euros of EU exports to the US. If negotiations fail, the EU plans to impose tariffs on 100 billion euros of US goods [8]. - In the Japan - US tariff negotiations, the US refuses to cancel the 10% benchmark tariff and the additional 14% tariff on Japan, putting Japan in a difficult situation [8]. - The UK and India signed a free - trade agreement, which is expected to increase bilateral trade by 25.5 billion pounds annually in the long run [9]. 2. Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 2.1 Agricultural Products - **Peanuts**: The spot market is stable, with oil mills' demand providing some support. There is sufficient supply, and the market is in the stage of speculating on planting area, with few topics for speculation [13]. - **Oils and Fats**: According to MPOB monthly report forecasts, Malaysia's palm oil inventory, production, and exports in April 2025 are expected to increase. Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production forecast is raised. The domestic market is expected to follow the external market's trend after the holiday, but the upside is limited [13]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price is suppressed by Brazil's good start of the sugar - crushing season and India's strong production forecast, while the domestic market has a good de - stocking rhythm. Traders are advised to go long with a light position near 5860 yuan, and add positions if the price breaks through 5910 yuan [13]. - **Corn**: The market is in a tug - of - war. Port inventories are high, suppressing price increases, but state purchases and reduced imports are improving market expectations. Short - term trading is recommended in the 2340 - 2390 yuan range [13]. - **Hogs**: The national hog price is stable. Group farms are holding back supplies, and there is a game between supply and demand. The terminal consumption is weak, and the futures market's main contract has shifted. Short - term operations are recommended [13][15]. - **Eggs**: The spot price of eggs is weakening. The inventory in production areas is increasing, and the southern sales areas are facing pressure. There are opportunities for short - selling on the futures market [15]. 2.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Urea**: The domestic urea market price is rising. The daily production is high, and the inventory of upstream enterprises is accumulating. With the approaching of summer fertilizer demand, the inventory pressure is expected to ease. The market is volatile and strengthening, and caution is advised for unilateral operations [15]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply of caustic soda is still in excess, although there are some new - capacity releases and demand changes. The price lacks upward momentum, and the 2509 contract may continue to trade at a low level [15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal market at ports is weakening after the holiday, and the second - round price increase of coke is on hold. The prices of coking coal and coke are under pressure, but may stabilize after the government's meeting [15]. 2.3 Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: The prices of copper and aluminum may continue to trade at a low level due to uncertainties in US tariff negotiations and the US economic downturn. Copper is relatively stronger due to support from the mining end [17]. - **Alumina**: The operating capacity of alumina is increasing. Although there are short - term production cuts, the supply is still excessive in the medium term. A bearish view is recommended for the medium - term [17]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils**: The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased during the holiday. The market may get a short - term boost from the government's financial policies, but overall, they will trade in a low - level range [17]. - **Silicon Ferroalloys**: The prices of silicon ferroalloys are falling. Steel mills are expected to start new rounds of procurement with a price - cutting attitude. The prices of silicon ferroalloys may trade at a low level in the short term [17][18]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate is falling, with a bearish supply - demand situation. The cost support is weakening, and short positions are recommended to be held, but beware of a rebound [18]. 2.4 Options and Finance - **Stock Indexes**: The A - share market had a good start on May 6. The market sentiment is positive, and there are opportunities for low - buying and combination arbitrage strategies [18][19]. - **Stock Index Options**: The A - share market rose on May 6, and the options market showed different trends in terms of volume, open interest, and implied volatility. Trend investors are advised to defend, and volatility investors can buy straddles after the volatility decline [19].

Core Viewpoint - Rubber futures prices are surging ahead of the upcoming China-US trade talks, with Thailand delaying rubber tapping, raising questions about the sustainability of this upward trend [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The anticipation of the China-US trade talks is influencing market sentiment, potentially driving rubber prices higher [1] - Thailand's decision to postpone rubber tapping could lead to reduced supply, further supporting price increases [1] Group 2: Price Trends - The current surge in rubber futures prices indicates a strong market reaction to geopolitical events and supply chain adjustments [1] - The ability of rubber futures to maintain their upward trajectory will depend on ongoing developments in trade negotiations and supply constraints [1]

美国财长贝森特、贸易代表格里尔周末将在瑞士与中国副总理何立峰等高层官员举行经贸会谈，这是特朗普全面加征关税以来中美双方首次证实的贸易谈 判。 隔夜要点 · 美国股市周二连续第二个交易日走低，因特朗普和财长贝森特的讲话几乎未提供达成任何贸易协议的明确时间表。美国公债价格上涨，收益率下跌，指标 10年期公债标售表现良好，暗示对美债的需求依然未变，给其他年期公债也带去提振。美元普遍下跌，因担心美国总统特朗普鼓吹的贸易协议尚未达成。油 价攀升约3%，因有迹象表明欧洲和中国的需求增加，美国产量下降，中东局势紧张，以及在油价跌至四年低点的第二天出现了买家。金价升至两周高点， 受中国假期后购买和对美国可能对进口药品征收关税的担忧支撑，同时投资者等待美联储政策会议的结果。 | 股市指数 | 收报 | | 日变动% 年初至今变动% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 纳斯达克指数 | 17689.66 | (0.87) | (8.39) | | 标普500指数 | 5606.91 | (0.77) | (4.67) | | 道琼斯工业均指 | 40829.00 | (0.95) | (4.03) | | ...