Fundamental Analysis - Silver prices experienced slight increases amid high volatility, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut not leading to significant gains in silver prices. The dollar index rose approximately 0.65%, reaching a near two-week high, making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, thus suppressing demand [1] - The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note also increased, enhancing the attractiveness of the dollar. Additionally, geopolitical developments, including Trump's peace proposal for Gaza and discussions between U.S. and Russian foreign ministers regarding the Ukraine crisis, have reduced market risk aversion [1] Federal Reserve Policy Signals - The cautious tone from the Federal Reserve, particularly from Chairman Powell, has heightened market caution. Powell emphasized the need to balance persistent inflation risks with a slowing job market, without providing new clues on future interest rate directions, interpreted as a conservative stance on further easing [3] - Market expectations indicate a 94% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October and a 77% chance in December. However, there are notable internal divisions among Federal Reserve officials regarding aggressive rate cuts, with some warning against premature easing based on temporary inflation assumptions [3] Upcoming Economic Data and Market Expectations - The market is focused on two key U.S. economic data releases that will provide further insights into the Federal Reserve's policy direction and directly impact gold prices. The weekly initial jobless claims data is expected to reveal the latest employment market dynamics, with strong data potentially reinforcing a hawkish Fed stance [4] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, will be released on Friday. Higher-than-expected PCE data could validate Powell's cautious approach, while lower inflation could enhance gold's appeal as an inflation hedge [4] Market Trends and Strategies - Current silver market conditions indicate a price consolidation trend, suggesting strategies for support and resistance trading. The dollar index is showing a fluctuating downward trend [7] - Technical indicators for silver suggest that prices are near the lower boundary of the trading range, with support at 43.53. Caution is advised in trading due to reduced market activity [7] Global Financial Market Dynamics - The precious metals market continues to present investment opportunities, with investors encouraged to utilize trading platforms for real-time market updates and to seize profit opportunities [8]

FICC日报 | 2025-09-25 "924"一周年A股飘红，矿难冲击推升铜价 市场分析 国内政策预期升温。国内8月经济压力边际增加，一是中国8月经济数据有所转弱，显现"工业缓、投资弱、消费淡" 等特征；另一方面是外部关税压力有所增加，墨西哥拟对贸易伙伴加征关税，据英国《金融时报》和路透社披露， 特朗普鼓动欧盟对中国和印度加征"二级关税"；为了应对边际增加的外部压力，国内近期频提稳增长政策。9月10 日，财政部长明确表示，"持续发力、适时加力实施更加积极有为的宏观政策"；发改委也表示"不断释放内需潜力""推 进重点行业产能治理"。关注后续更具体的政策内容。中美双方在西班牙马德里举行经贸会谈，就以合作方式妥善 解决TikTok问题、减少投资障碍、促进有关经贸合作等达成了基本框架共识。9月19日晚，中美元首通电话，就当 前中美关系和共同关心的问题坦诚深入交换意见，就下阶段中美关系稳定发展作出战略指引。国务院召开新闻发 布会，介绍"十四五"时期金融业的发展情况，此次会议不涉及短期政策调整，关于"十五五"以及下一步金融改革内 容，将在中央统一部署后做进一步沟通。商务部会同中央网信办、财政部等8部门印发了《关于促进 ...

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened up 0.07%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.13%. Chery Automobile saw a first-day increase of over 11%, Zijin Mining rose nearly 4%, and JD Group increased by nearly 2% [1] - Huatai Securities reported that the recent rebound in Hong Kong tech stocks is driven by accelerated domestic AI developments, with the Hang Seng Tech Index and Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Tech Index rising nearly 20% since July [1] - CITIC Securities indicated that Hong Kong stocks are expected to see a bottoming out of earnings in the first half of 2025, with revenue and profit growth rates recorded at 1.9% and 4.6% respectively as of September 15 [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities forecasts a turning point in earnings growth for Hong Kong stocks in the second half of 2025, with high growth expected in materials, healthcare, and technology sectors, while sectors like energy and consumer staples may see a turnaround [2] - CITIC Jiantou noted that the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will directly benefit Hong Kong stocks, with ample liquidity and continued inflow of southbound funds [2] Group 3 - Guotai Junan's report emphasized that dividend assets are characterized by stable performance and sustainable cash flows, providing investors with stable high dividend returns, with Hong Kong stocks offering better value compared to A-shares [3] - The average cash dividend ratio for all Hong Kong stocks from 2017 to 2024 is 44%, higher than A-shares at 36%, and the dividend yield for the Hang Seng Composite Index is 2.9%, compared to 1.9% for the Wind All A Index [3] - Hong Kong's high dividend assets have a lower valuation level, with the Hang Seng High Dividend Yield Index PE and PB at 7.2 times and 0.6 times respectively, lower than the CSI Dividend Total Return Index at 7.9 times and 0.8 times [3]

Group 1 - The World Gold Council reported that global gold ETF holdings have increased at the fastest pace in three years, reaching a total of 3,779.4 tons, the highest since August 2022 [1] - In the first and second quarters of this year, net inflows into gold ETFs were 226.6 tons and 170.5 tons respectively, significantly surpassing the same periods last year, contributing to the rise in gold prices [1] - The leading gold ETF in terms of inflow this year is the SPDR Gold Shares in the U.S., with a demand increase of 122.1 tons and a total holding of approximately 994.4 tons [1] Group 2 - The Huazhong Yifu Gold ETF from China also saw significant inflows, with a demand increase of 28.2 tons and a total holding of about 74.7 tons [1] - Short-term outlook suggests that after potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, gold prices may face technical corrections and profit-taking pressures, with key trading ranges identified between $3,750 and $3,850 [1] - Long-term trends indicate that central banks globally are continuing to increase their gold holdings, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and inflation concerns, which are expected to support strong gold prices [1] Group 3 - Funi Futures believes that gold prices will remain strong and volatile, driven by both the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts and ongoing risk events that sustain safe-haven demand [3] - Recent comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell have opened up further possibilities for interest rate cuts, contributing to the prevailing strong sentiment towards gold [3] - The combination of increasing internal divisions within the Federal Reserve and persistent geopolitical conflicts is likely to keep safe-haven demand for gold elevated [3]

Supply Side - The recent reduction in production at recycling lead smelters due to weak downstream demand and tight raw material supply has led to a significant contraction in lead ingot supply, while demand continues to grow [1] - Overseas supply may see a slight increase with the Endeavor mine ramping up shipments, the end of maintenance at Vedanta-Zinc India, and the resumption of operations at the Aripuan? mine [1] - Domestic raw material inventory at smelting plants has significantly declined, and processing fees continue to decrease, indicating that smelting plants are beginning to stockpile for winter [1] Demand Side - Increased demand for lead-acid batteries from electric bicycle manufacturers has led to a rise in operating rates for lead-acid battery companies, which in turn boosts lead ingot demand [2] - However, the automotive sector is experiencing a slowdown in electric vehicle sales growth and limited replacement demand for automotive batteries, negatively impacting lead ingot demand [2] - The trend of declining exports of lead-acid batteries is expected to become more pronounced in the fourth quarter, further constraining demand [2] Macro Perspective - The short-term path for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts is relatively clear, but the market has already priced in these cuts, suggesting limited future impact [3] - Lead ingot supply and demand are expected to maintain a tight balance until October, providing strong support for lead prices [3] - As recycling lead enterprises gradually resume production and demand lacks further growth potential, the lead ingot supply-demand balance may shift towards surplus, posing a risk of price correction [3]

此外，全球央行购金潮延续强劲势头，成为支撑金价的重要基石。9月7日，中国人民银行公布的数据显 示，截至8月末，我国黄金储备为7402万盎司，较7月末的7396万盎司增加6万盎司，为连续第10个月增 持黄金。 世界黄金协会数据显示，今年以来截至9月19日，全球央行购金的前三大买家为美国、英国、瑞士。 本报记者 毛艺融 随着美联储降息"靴子"落地，国际金价连日来延续涨势。Wind资讯数据显示，截至北京时间9月24日记 者发稿，美国纽约商品交易所（COMEX）黄金盘中一度涨超3812.6美元/盎司，伦敦金现（现货黄金） 也以3779.41美元/盎司的价格继续维持高位，上海期货交易所上市的黄金期货主力合约一度涨至856.80 元/克。 全球投资者疯狂"扫货"黄金ETF。根据世界黄金协会的数据，截至9月19日，全球黄金ETF持仓量出现了 三年来最快速度的增长，黄金ETF的总持金量为3779.4吨，创2022年8月份以来最高。今年第一季度、 第二季度的净流入量分别为226.6吨、170.5吨，远超去年同期，为金价上涨注入了新动力。 截至9月19日，全球年内流入量第一的黄金ETF为美国的SPDRGoldShares，年内黄 ...

美联储降息引发全球资金大迁徙，黄金意外成为最大赢家。 近日，黄金涨势如虹，在一众投资品中格外吸睛，频频刷新历史新高。北京时间9月23日，现货黄金最 高涨至3791美元/盎司，黄金期货更是最高突破3800美元/盎司，双双续写最佳成绩。 美联储降息背后，往往是经济增长放缓、通胀回落甚至出现衰退风险的信号。这一动作所带来的利率和 汇率的变动，将会同时影响全球资金流动状况，自然也会引发各类资产价格的重新评估。 对于黄金而言，理论上，降息利好兑现后，金价容易震荡承压，然而市场表现却颠覆了这一预期。 黄金持续走高的同时，也刷新了大众对于黄金投资的认知。以往买金，是为了避险，也就是对冲风险； 而如今更多国家加入购金，则为对冲全球信用体系本身的波动。 受贸易摩擦加剧、美国政策反复、地缘政治热点事件层出不穷的影响，各国央行，尤其是新兴市场国家 的储备战略开启"去美元化"，倾向于通过增持黄金来对冲美元体系可能出现的结构性风险。 全球央行过去连续三年净买入黄金超千吨，这是许久未有的强度，且2025年这一趋势仍在延续。 各国央行持续购金之下，黄金在国际储备资产中的占比持续攀升，并已超过欧元，跃升为仅次于美元的 第二大国际储备资产。 ...

美联储降息背后，往往是经济增长放缓、通胀回落甚至出现衰退风险的信号。这一动作所带来的利率和 汇率的变动，将会同时影响全球资金流动状况，自然也会引发各类资产价格的重新评估。 对于黄金而言，理论上，降息利好兑现后，金价容易震荡承压，然而市场表现却颠覆了这一预期。 在降息前，黄金已开启了一波连续上涨势头，现货黄金从8月26日的3338美元/盎司涨至9月17日的3700 美元/盎司，不断刷新历史高位。 降息后短短几天，金价不仅未回调，反而持续冲高。拉长时间来看，现货黄金在2023年和2024年已连续 上涨，累计涨幅达44.1%。在此基础之上，今年以来的涨势进一步加速，不仅30余次刷新历史新高，累 计涨幅也已超过43%。 黄金持续走高的同时，也刷新了大众对于黄金投资的认知。以往买金，是为了避险，也就是对冲风险； 而如今更多国家加入购金，则为对冲全球信用体系本身的波动。 受贸易摩擦加剧、美国政策反复、地缘政治热点事件层出不穷的影响，各国央行，尤其是新兴市场国家 的储备战略开启"去美元化"，倾向于通过增持黄金来对冲美元体系可能出现的结构性风险。 美联储降息引发全球资金大迁徙，黄金意外成为最大赢家。 近日，黄金涨势如虹，在一 ...

受贸易摩擦加剧、美国政策反复、地缘政治热点事件层出不穷的影响，各国央行，尤其是新兴市场国家 的储备战略开启"去美元化"，倾向于通过增持黄金来对冲美元体系可能出现的结构性风险。 近日，黄金涨势如虹，在一众投资品中格外吸睛，频频刷新历史新高。北京时间9月23日，现货黄金最 高涨至3791美元/盎司，黄金期货更是最高突破3800美元/盎司，双双续写最佳成绩。 美联储降息背后，往往是经济增长放缓、通胀回落甚至出现衰退风险的信号。这一动作所带来的利率和 汇率的变动，将会同时影响全球资金流动状况，自然也会引发各类资产价格的重新评估。 对于黄金而言，理论上，降息利好兑现后，金价容易震荡承压，然而市场表现却颠覆了这一预期。 在降息前，黄金已开启了一波连续上涨势头，现货黄金从8月26日的3338美元/盎司涨至9月17日的3700 美元/盎司，不断刷新历史高位。 降息后短短几天，金价不仅未回调，反而持续冲高。拉长时间来看，现货黄金在2023年和2024年已连续 上涨，累计涨幅达44.1%。在此基础之上，今年以来的涨势进一步加速，不仅30余次刷新历史新高，累 计涨幅也已超过43%。 黄金持续走高的同时，也刷新了大众对于黄金投资的认 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut has triggered a global capital migration, with gold emerging as the biggest winner, reaching historical highs in recent weeks [1]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - Gold prices have surged significantly, with spot gold reaching a high of $3,791 per ounce and gold futures surpassing $3,800 per ounce [1]. - Prior to the interest rate cut, spot gold rose from $3,338 per ounce on August 26 to $3,700 per ounce by September 17, marking a continuous upward trend [2]. - Following the rate cut, gold prices continued to rise rather than decline, with a cumulative increase of 44.1% in 2023 and 2024 [2]. Group 2: Changing Perception of Gold Investment - The perception of gold as an investment has shifted from merely a safe haven to a strategic asset for countries aiming to hedge against fluctuations in the global credit system [2]. - Central banks, particularly in emerging markets, are increasingly adopting a "de-dollarization" strategy by accumulating gold to mitigate structural risks associated with the dollar [2]. Group 3: Central Bank Gold Purchases - Global central banks have net purchased over 1,000 tons of gold for three consecutive years, a level of intensity not seen in a long time, with this trend expected to continue into 2025 [3]. - The share of gold in international reserves has surpassed that of the euro, making it the second-largest reserve asset after the dollar [3]. - Gold is becoming a new anchor in the global monetary trust system, challenging the foundational role of U.S. Treasury bonds in the modern financial system [3].