Group 1 - The A-share market is expected to continue its spring rally in 2026, driven by policy guidance and industry trends, with a focus on technology and resource sectors [1][3] - The market sentiment is currently strong, with limited adjustment pressure, and the potential for a rebound in market indices post-Spring Festival [2][3] - The AI sector is highlighted as a key investment opportunity, with expectations for significant advancements and commercialization in 2026 [3][4] Group 2 - Resource sectors, including chemicals and precious metals, are gaining attention from institutions, particularly due to rising international prices for gold and oil [4][5] - The geopolitical situation may provide a short-term boost to oil prices, while precious metals are seen as a safe haven for investors [5][6] - The upcoming peak season for industrial production and construction in March and April is expected to validate price increases and influence market trends [6]

根据花旗集团(Citigroup Inc.)和法国兴业银行(Societe Generale SA)等机构的欧洲市场策略师们最新观点，由于中美贸易紧张、发 达国家债务愈发膨胀以及特朗普摇摆不定的关税政策等风险抑制市场情绪，2024年以来表现强劲的欧洲股市今年将难以取得更大 规模实质性涨幅，并且预判欧洲股市近年来的"最佳时期"已经过去，至少到明年年初将陷入横盘震荡。 今年大部分时间里，欧洲股市被美国关税政策带来的紧张局势以及法国长期的政治危机所限制在窄幅区间。由于对人工智能的敞 口相对较小，欧洲也在今年多数时间段跑输由AI投资狂潮所推动的全球股票市场涨势。斯托克600本月终于创下新的创纪录高 位，但即使按汇率强于美元的本币计价，仅仅勉强跟上标普500指数步伐。 与此同时，华盛顿与北京再度卷入贸易争端，重燃市场对宏观经济放缓的担忧。欧洲市场与全球经济健康状况的关联尤为紧密， 因为其半导体设备供应、矿业设备和汽车制造等行业是全球供应链的重要部分。机构所跟踪的欧洲市场策略师们预计，斯托克 600指数成份股2025年的整体盈利将小幅下滑，随后在下一年增长11%。 尽管如此，短期内仍有理由对欧洲股市涨势保持乐观。随着法国 ...

Core Insights - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies, the situation in the Middle East, and climate-related issues remains high [1] - If oil prices remain stable, it is expected that the inflation rate in July may slow down [1] Economic Factors - U.S. tariff policies are contributing to economic uncertainty [1] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is also a significant factor affecting economic stability [1] - Climate-related uncertainties are impacting economic forecasts [1] Inflation Outlook - A stable oil price environment could lead to a deceleration in inflation growth rates in July [1]

分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《中共中央政治局会议精神学习》 - 2025.04.28 宏观研究 证券研究报告：宏观报告 研究所 | | | 投资要点 （1）五一假期居民出行需求旺盛，消费亮点纷呈 第一，居民出行需求延续高热度，自驾游仍是主要出行方式。交 通运输部消息，今年五一假期前四天（5 月 1 日至 4 日），预计全社会 跨区域人员流动量 11.85 亿人次，日均 2.96 亿人次，较 2024 年同期 增长 6.24%，较 2019 年同期增长 34.92%。第二，旅游保持高热度， 跨境游和票根经济成为消费新增长点。从省域来看，四川、山东、浙 江、上海、重庆等省市旅游保持高热度，旅游数据再创新高；在入境 政策持续优化、度假旅游需求旺盛、国际航班运力增加等多重利好因 素叠加下，跨境游成为新的增长点；票根经济已成为"五一"假期新 的消费亮点。第三，假期消费持续升温。"五一"假期全国重点零售和 ...

Core Insights - As of the end of Q4 2024, the allocation of actively managed public funds in the electronic sector is expected to reach 9.63% of the total market value of fund equity investments, indicating an overweight position [1] - The electronic industry index has risen further this year due to multiple factors, including the exploration of new paths for large model development by Deepseek, a meeting held by the central government with private entrepreneurs, and increased capital expenditures by leading domestic cloud companies [1] - The U.S. tariff policy is accelerating the "blockchain" of the global supply chain, which is expected to have a significant impact on global manufacturing [1] Industry Impact - Certain semiconductor products, such as logic chips and memory chips, are temporarily exempt from tariffs; however, the imposition of tariffs on supporting materials (like substrates and packaging adhesives) is raising overall manufacturing costs in the semiconductor industry [1] - The evolving landscape of the global semiconductor industry and the complex international trade environment may lead overseas companies to adopt a "Local for local" production strategy to mitigate tariff impacts when establishing operations in China [1] - The short-term impact of U.S. tariff policies on China's semiconductor industry is relatively limited, but companies reliant on the U.S. market may face pressure [1] - In the long term, the effects of tariffs could delay downstream demand recovery and lead to order cancellations, while domestic replacement and self-controlled enterprises are likely to benefit [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company indicates that the impact of the current U.S. tariff policy on its business is minimal due to the small proportion of revenue derived from direct exports to the U.S. [1] Group 1 - The company's revenue from direct exports to the U.S. constitutes a small portion of its overall revenue [1] - The company is currently operating normally and is closely monitoring economic conditions and policy changes [1] - The company aims to actively respond to market changes and continuously enhance its core competitiveness and risk resistance capabilities [1]

Core Viewpoint - The impact of the US tariff policy on the company is very limited and controllable, and the company will closely monitor related policy changes to develop timely response strategies [1] Group 1 - The company is progressing with various projects in an orderly manner despite the complex and changing external environment [1] - The company has established extensive cooperation with leading domestic chip manufacturers and has begun receiving orders for high-performance domestic computing chips [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company's operations remain unaffected by the U.S. tariff policies, and it will continue to monitor policy changes to ensure stable development [1] Business Impact - The U.S. tariff policies primarily target industries such as new energy, semiconductors, steel and aluminum products, machinery, and chemical plastics, which are not related to the company's core business of digital content [1] - The company is actively advancing its various business operations without disruption [1] Competitive Advantage - The company's core competitiveness lies in its vast collection of high-quality licensed digital content [1] - A multi-dimensional content platform matrix has been established by the company to enhance its service offerings [1]

Core Viewpoint - The AI server shipment growth rate for 2025 has been slightly revised down to 24.5% due to the impact of U.S. tariff policies and market uncertainties [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The U.S. value-related regulations may help mitigate some tariff impacts on AI servers [1] - Mexico is not subject to additional tariffs, allowing ODM system manufacturers to ship to U.S. clients through Mexico and benefit from tax exemptions under the USMCA agreement [1] Group 2: Future Projections - Market uncertainties may lead OEMs or CSPs to adopt a more conservative approach, delaying actual purchasing progress [1] - If further retaliatory tariffs lead to significant trade barriers, global inflation or decreased consumer spending could result in a further reduction of the AI server shipment growth rate to around 18% [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" for the non-banking financial sector, indicating a positive outlook for the next six months [1][33]. Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of mergers and acquisitions in the brokerage sector, driven by the merger of Xiangcai and Dazhihui, which is expected to enhance business synergy and customer acquisition [4][31]. - The insurance sector is seeing an expansion in the scope of equity investments by insurance funds, which is anticipated to benefit both the new productive forces and the returns on insurance capital [4][31]. - The report emphasizes the importance of regulatory support for the development of private enterprises and the capital market, which is expected to foster high-quality companies and promote continuous reform [4][31]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The non-banking financial index fell by 1.3% last week, with the brokerage index down 1.8% and the insurance index down 0.7%, while the multi-financial index increased by 0.3% [8][9]. - The average daily trading volume for stock funds was 13,897 billion, a decrease of 7% week-on-week [17]. Brokerage Sector - The brokerage index's decline was offset by Xiangcai's significant increase of 21.8% due to merger expectations, which is expected to enhance customer acquisition and digital transformation [4][31]. - New A-share accounts reached 3.07 million in March, a year-on-year increase of 27%, indicating sustained market enthusiasm despite potential impacts from U.S. tariff policies [4][31]. Insurance Sector - The regulatory authority has expanded the scope of equity investments for insurance funds to include technology and modern agriculture, aligning with national strategic industries [4][31]. - The report predicts that the expansion of equity investments will lead to stable investment returns for insurance funds, enhancing overall yield expectations [4][31]. Investment Recommendations - For brokerages, the report suggests focusing on mergers and acquisitions, high financial ratios, and improving return on equity (ROE) as key investment themes [4][31]. - In the insurance sector, attention is recommended for large comprehensive insurance companies with competitive advantages under the new regulatory framework [4][31].