如今，AI正处在与物理世界深度融合的关键拐点。为了便于把握产业趋势、厘清泡沫与现实的边界，2025年7月和8月间，最新发布的三份权威报告为我 们提供了不同视角的真相。 三大权威报告在AIoT的未来上达成了哪些共识？又在哪些关键的问题上存在观点分歧？本文将系统梳理这些前沿洞见，提炼出AIoT创新的最新路径与产 业启示，助力行业穿越泡沫，抓住智能经济的下一个增长窗口。 这三份报告分别是： 1.《2025年技术趋势展望》（Technology Trends Outlook 2025）——麦肯锡全球研究院（MGI） 该报告系统梳理了2025年影响企业和产业格局的十三大前沿技术趋势，涵盖AI革命、算力与连接、工程创新三大板块。报告特别强调AI已成为一切基础 设施和应用场景的放大器，AI与物理世界、物联网、边缘计算、机器人等的融合，正重构全球价值创造与产业竞争格局。 2.《2025年人工智能现状》（The State of AI 2025）——Bessemer Venture Partners（BVP） BVP以全球知名风险投资机构的视角，深入分析了AI原生企业的增长模式、AI基础设施的演进，以及AI如何重塑企业级软件和 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights significant advancements in China's digital sector, particularly in artificial intelligence and integrated circuits, showcasing a comprehensive leap in capabilities [1] - China's digital infrastructure has seen substantial growth, with a notable increase in 5G base stations and gigabit broadband users [1] - The data industry in China is rapidly expanding, with projections indicating a significant rise in the number of data enterprises and industry scale by 2024 [1] Group 1: Technological Advancements - China has achieved a comprehensive and systematic leap in artificial intelligence, with AI patents accounting for 60% of the global total [1] - Breakthroughs have been made in humanoid robots and smart terminals, indicating progress in key technology areas [1] - The integrated circuit sector is accelerating its layout, forming a complete industrial chain covering design, manufacturing, packaging, testing, materials, and equipment [1] Group 2: Digital Infrastructure Development - As of June 30, the total number of 5G base stations reached 4.55 million, and gigabit broadband users reached 226 million [1] - The total computing power scale ranks second globally, reflecting China's growing digital capabilities [1] Group 3: Data Industry Growth - By 2024, the number of data enterprises in China is expected to exceed 400,000, with the data industry scale reaching 5.86 trillion yuan, a 117% increase compared to the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [1] - The industry is characterized by deep data mining, integrated applications, algorithmic computing power, and high-level data integration [1] - Average R&D investment of listed data enterprises is projected to increase by 79% compared to the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of developing "new quality productivity" as a means to drive high-quality economic growth and modernization in China, particularly in the context of the fourth industrial revolution characterized by intelligent technology [3][9]. Group 1: Definition and Characteristics of New Quality Productivity - New quality productivity is defined as an advanced form of productivity that emerges from revolutionary technological breakthroughs, characterized by high technology, high efficiency, and high quality [4][5]. - The evolution of productivity can be summarized as a transition through "five powers": human power, horse power, electric power, network power, and computing power, with the current focus on computing power as a key driver of new industries [4][5]. Group 2: Misconceptions to Address - There is a misconception that "new quality" lacks clear definitions and boundaries, which can lead to vague goals and ineffective practices [3][5]. - Another misconception is that the effectiveness of new quality productivity cannot be accurately measured; however, total factor productivity (TFP) can be used as a key indicator, reflecting improvements from technology, institutional reforms, and management enhancements [5][6]. - It is also mistakenly believed that discussions on new quality productivity should only focus on future technologies and industries, while in reality, it encompasses market and institutional innovations that enhance efficiency in traditional industries [6][7]. Group 3: Broader Implications and Applications - The development of new quality productivity is not limited to economic sectors; it also involves education, culture, and green development, highlighting the need for a holistic approach [7][8]. - The article points out that even less developed regions can leverage new technologies to achieve significant advancements, drawing parallels with historical examples of regions that successfully "leapfrogged" in development [8][9]. Group 4: Strategic Considerations - The article stresses the need to pay attention to the context in which new quality productivity was first articulated, particularly in relation to the revitalization of Northeast China, which faces unique economic challenges [9][10]. - It also warns against potential issues such as overcapacity, the emergence of new economic bubbles, and the misapplication of policies that do not consider local conditions [10].

Core Viewpoint - The Supreme People's Court has issued guidelines to implement the "Promotion Law of Private Economy," emphasizing the protection of emerging industries and the judicial protection of data rights [1] Group 1: Emerging Industries - The guidelines aim to ensure the healthy and orderly development of emerging industries [1] - There is a focus on the judicial protection of data rights to address disputes related to data ownership [1] Group 2: Data Rights and AI - The guidelines include the drafting of judicial protection opinions for data rights, promoting efficient circulation and trading of data elements [1] - The court will legally adjudicate cases related to artificial intelligence, supporting its lawful application and guiding the healthy development of the AI industry [1]

Group 1: AI Impact on Labor Market - AI is predicted to take over creative tasks, not just repetitive jobs, with experts suggesting that roles such as financial analysts and scriptwriters may be at risk [7][9] - Those who do not understand or utilize AI are likely to be the first to be eliminated from the workforce [7] Group 2: Integration of AI with Navigation Systems - The integration of AI with China's BeiDou navigation system is expected to create a trillion-dollar industry, enhancing capabilities beyond navigation to include disaster response and urban planning [10] Group 3: World Models as a Key to Physical Interaction - The concept of world models is introduced as the next generation of AI, enabling machines to understand spatial relationships and perform complex tasks in physical environments [13] Group 4: Revolution in Content Creation - AI-generated content (AIGC) is set to revolutionize the content industry, with AI tools allowing creators to produce high-quality content significantly faster than traditional methods [15] Group 5: Ethical Governance of AI - The ultimate challenge for AI development is governance, focusing on ensuring AI does not become a tool for domination, with a call for global participation in AI governance [18]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Municipal Government has set ambitious goals for the development of the embodied intelligence industry, aiming for a core industry scale exceeding 50 billion yuan by 2027, with significant support for key technological advancements and financial tools [1][3]. Group 1: Development Goals - By 2027, Shanghai aims to achieve breakthroughs in at least 20 core algorithms and technologies related to embodied models and embodied data [3]. - The plan includes the establishment of at least four high-quality incubators for embodied intelligence, fostering the gathering of key industry players and promoting innovative application scenarios [3]. Group 2: Financial Support - The government will provide up to 30% support for approved projects, capped at 50 million yuan, to encourage technological advancements in perception decision-making, motion control, embodied data, and operating systems [2][3]. - For companies purchasing data services, there will be a support of up to 500,000 yuan per year in data vouchers [3]. Group 3: Infrastructure Development - The implementation plan emphasizes the creation of five major platforms: computing power, training, pilot testing, investment, and leasing, to solidify the foundation for the development of the embodied intelligence industry [5]. - The plan also aims to enhance the role of Shanghai's artificial intelligence fund in supporting quality enterprises and establishing venture capital funds [5]. Group 4: Application Scenarios - The plan encourages the exploration of new business models in various sectors such as logistics, industrial manufacturing, retail, healthcare, and home services, with financial support for innovative application projects [7]. - Specific support is outlined for the integration of embodied intelligence in healthcare, focusing on the development of multi-modal perception and adaptive decision-making capabilities in medical and nursing robots [7]. Group 5: Component Development - The plan highlights the importance of developing core components such as specialized chips and mainboards for embodied intelligence, leveraging Shanghai's advantages in autonomous intelligent chips and robotics [8]. - It aims to establish production bases for high-value components like joint modules, intelligent sensors, and visual cameras in Shanghai [8]. Group 6: Incentives for Enterprises - The plan includes incentives for attracting and nurturing quality enterprises, offering rewards of up to 5% of contract amounts, capped at 500,000 yuan, for companies selling or leasing embodied intelligence robots [9].

Group 1 - The global economy in 2025 is characterized by uncertainties, including trade wars, technological transitions, and geopolitical risks, making financial markets a key window for observing macro trends [1] - The recent roundtable discussion at Fudan University focused on the themes of economic and trade competition, technological transitions, and the current international financial situation, aiming to provide academic references for China's capital market in response to new international changes [1][2] - The chief economist from ICBC International highlighted that the global economic recovery cycle is confirmed for 2023-2024, but recent trade wars have caused fluctuations in expectations, with Hong Kong stocks rising nearly 30% in the past three months, outperforming global markets [2] Group 2 - The resilience of the Chinese economy is attributed to its large-scale market and complete industrial system, with a focus on the integration of digital and real economies [3] - The chief economist from Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation emphasized the need for China to manage its relationships with the US and neighboring countries carefully to avoid isolation, suggesting a focus on domestic demand and long-term strategies [3] - The Fudan University professor pointed out that the capital market is crucial for activating property income and addressing the decline in regular income, which is essential for the internationalization of the RMB [4] Group 3 - The discussion highlighted the importance of capital markets in supporting early-stage financing for technology companies and accelerating breakthroughs in advanced technology fields [5] - Experts agreed that the global economic recovery is subject to fluctuations, but China's manufacturing advantages and technological potential provide resilience against challenges [6] - The need for China to be cautious of deflation and geopolitical risks was emphasized, advocating for counter-cyclical policies and technological breakthroughs to achieve quality growth [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the Chinese government's commitment to advancing the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative and implementing personal consumption and service industry loan interest subsidy policies to stimulate economic growth and enhance market vitality [1][3][5]. Group 1: "Artificial Intelligence +" Initiative - The government aims to deeply implement the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative, promoting large-scale commercial applications of AI across various sectors, fostering a virtuous cycle of innovation and application [2][5]. - The initiative includes optimizing the AI innovation ecosystem by strengthening computing power, algorithms, and data supply, increasing policy support, and enhancing talent development [5]. - The AI industry in China is projected to exceed 700 billion yuan by 2024, maintaining a growth rate of over 20% for several consecutive years [6]. Group 2: Loan Interest Subsidy Policies - The implementation of personal consumption loan and service industry loan interest subsidy policies is expected to lower credit costs for residents and financing costs for service industry entities, thereby stimulating consumption potential and enhancing market vitality [3][9]. - The policies are designed to leverage fiscal and financial collaboration to improve the efficiency of fund utilization and ensure that financial resources are effectively allocated [9][12]. - The Ministry of Finance has indicated that these subsidy policies will have a leveraging effect on consumption, enhancing demand for end products and improving public service supply capabilities [12].

Core Insights - The focus of the recent inspection and research conducted by the Hangzhou delegation is on accelerating the construction of an artificial intelligence innovation hub and implementing five major projects [1][2] - The city aims to establish itself as a global leader in artificial intelligence innovation, emphasizing the importance of resource aggregation, platform project support, and scenario innovation [1] - Suggestions from representatives include reducing computing power energy consumption, fostering globally competitive industrial clusters, and enhancing the legal framework for artificial intelligence [1][2] Group 1 - The Hangzhou delegation conducted on-site visits to various institutions, including the West Electric Hangzhou Research Institute and the Kailida Welding Robot [1] - The city has made significant progress in building an AI innovation ecosystem, characterized by a unique Hangzhou identity [1] - The representatives proposed several initiatives, such as optimizing international talent recruitment and promoting the integration of high-tech industries with traditional sectors [1] Group 2 - The inspection was described as focused, organized, and practical, with representatives providing forward-looking and targeted suggestions [2] - Emphasis was placed on the importance of aligning with the directives of General Secretary Xi Jinping regarding technological innovation [2] - The city government is encouraged to actively incorporate the representatives' insights into development strategies and governance effectiveness [2]

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown good performance in 2023, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 6.88%, the ChiNext Index by 7.89%, and the CSI 300 by 4.7% from the beginning of the year to July 23 [1] - The market experienced significant fluctuations due to factors such as "reciprocal tariffs" and has gradually moved upward since mid-April, supported by proactive domestic policies and a temporary easing of Sino-U.S. trade tensions [1] - There is a clear divergence in sector performance, with non-ferrous metals, non-bank financials, and banks leading in gains, while coal, food and beverage, and real estate sectors remain in negative returns [1] Group 2 - The "anti-involution" policy aims to shift industry competition from low-level price wars to high-quality competition, which could improve the profitability of listed companies and enhance the long-term capacity for technological advancement [2] - Midstream manufacturing and upstream raw materials sectors, which are currently facing supply-demand imbalances, are expected to benefit significantly from the gradual implementation of the "anti-involution" policy [2] Group 3 - Domestic demand has shown resilience in the first half of the year, supported by policies such as "trade-in" for durable goods and equipment upgrades, which bolster manufacturing investment [3] - The stabilization of the real estate market is seen as a crucial factor for the recovery of domestic demand, with ongoing supportive policies expected to contribute to this trend [3] - New productive forces, particularly in artificial intelligence and innovative pharmaceuticals, are anticipated to represent significant investment opportunities in the future [3]