南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者吴斌 上海报道 对于人工智能泡沫的担忧一度引发市场大跌，人们在忐忑中迈向未来。 澳洲会计师公会华东和华中区委员会会长、澳洲资深注册会计师金科近日在接受21世纪经济报道记者专 访时表示，人工智能产业目前确实存在局部过热迹象，但是否会演变成类似2000年互联网泡沫的系统性 风险，还需观察几个关键信号，如CAPEX增速拐点、债务融资占比、盈利兑现率、政策监管动向等。 综合考虑人工智能产业目前的发展状况以及与实体经济的融合度，金科认为，重现互联网泡沫时期的剧 烈破裂风险可能性较小，AI与互联网泡沫存在本质差异。 人工智能已经迈向现实，在千行百业生根发芽。澳洲会计师公会近日发布的《2025年商业科技应用调 查》（以下简称《调查》）显示，过去12个月，中国内地企业的人工智能应用率与应用成熟度实现同步 提升。65%的中国内地受访者预计，其所在企业未来12个月将进一步增加对AI技术的应用，较上一次调 查跃升17个百分点。 展望未来，金科预计，人工智能会更广泛地在不同行业加快垂直化深度发展，更紧密地与行业特性和企 业自身的商业模式结合。随着"十五五"规划的开展，"人工智能+"驱动的新质生产力发展会 ...

雪上加霜的是，日本首相高市早苗在国会发表的错误恶劣言论引发中日关系紧张，中方发布的旅游警示 与留学预警使得日本旅游业遭遇寒流。日本野村综合研究所有研究员估算，此举可能导致日本损失115 亿美元至140亿美元旅游收入，拖累GDP增速0.29个至0.36个百分点。日本股市的百货、运输板块股票大 幅下跌，中日民间交流活动延期或取消，进一步压缩了日本经济的回旋空间。 上周，日本经济拉响警报，再度出现负增长。数据下滑的直接原因是美国关税政策对日本汽车等支柱产 业出口造成打击。同时，日本经济长期积累的结构性矛盾与短期政治风险交织，使得高市早苗政府试图 通过大规模财政刺激"破局"的举措显得力不从心。 11月17日，日本内阁府公布的初步统计数据显示，今年三季度，日本实际国内生产总值（GDP）按年率 计算下降1.8%，自2024年一季度以来再次出现负增长，直接诱因是外需急剧收缩。数据显示，外需对 三季度日本经济增长的贡献为－0.2个百分点。 今年以来，美国对日本输美商品加征关税，尤其是将汽车关税从2.5%提升至15%，令日本相关产业遭遇 重创，特别是汽车产业链上下游的订单萎缩和经济衰退形成恶性循环。 内需不振也是日本经济长期低 ...

大家早上壕！ 先看海外要闻： 英伟达业绩利好昙花一现，三大美股指盘中大跳水，标普500指数一度较日高跌超3%、上演4月关税风暴以来最大盘中逆转，纳指收跌超2%，和 标普均创两个月新低。收盘标普500跌1.56%，道指跌0.84%，纳指跌2.16%。 英伟达盘中涨超5%后收跌超3%，领跌科技七巨头，AMD收跌近8%，甲骨文跌超6%；绩优沃尔玛逆市大涨近6.5%。闪迪收跌20%，创4月份以 来最大单日跌幅。 英伟达与富士康合作研发的人形机器人将于11月21日鸿海科技日正式亮相。 国内重大事件汇总： 1、中国LPR连续六个月维持不变：11月5年期以上LPR为3.5%，1年期LPR为3%。 2、商务部部长王文涛会见美国驻华大使庞德伟。双方就中美经贸关系等问题深入交换意见。 中概指数跌超3%，拼多多和百度跌超4%。阿特斯收跌约19%，大全新能源跌超8%，晶科能源跌超6%。 美国非农就业数据后，美债价格反弹、收益率掉头下行，美股转跌后，收益率加速下行。美元指数盘中创两周新高，美国业数据后转跌；日元四 连跌、创十个月新低；加密货币持续大跌，比特币一度跌超7%、七个月来首次跌破8.7万美元。 特朗普据称下周一签署AI新政"创 ...

广东省数字经济创新发展试验区建设方案出炉。 11月20日，广东省人民政府正式印发《广东省国家数字经济创新发展试验区建设方案（2025—2027 年）》（下称《方案》）。 加快关键核心技术突破，打造国际一流数字产业集群。围绕"引领数字技术新突破""布局数据产业新赛 道""加强算力产业新供给""构建算法产业新生态""拓展终端产业新场景""锻造产业链韧性新体系"等六方 面提出工作任务，强调以数字技术突破带动数字产业"数据—算力—算法—终端"全链条创新发展，培育 具有国际竞争力的数字产业集群。 全面推进数字化转型，深化人工智能赋能千行百业。围绕"加速传统企业数智升级""深化重点产业智改 数转""推进数字城乡融合共进"等三方面提出工作任务，强调全面推进企业、产业、城乡三类主体的数 字化转型，并突出人工智能在转型中的赋能作用。 深化数字经济协同发展，构建高水平开放合作新格局。围绕"协同推动'数字湾区'建设""深化省际数字经 济交流合作""拓展国际数字经济开放空间"三个方面提出工作任务，强调通过粤港澳大湾区合作、省际 合作、国际合作三个层次，全面提升全省数字经济协同发展、对外开放水平。 158项改革举措 《方案》明确提出到 ...

"促进制造业数智化转型""推进服务业数智化""推进传统基础设施更新和数智化改造""推动文化建设数智化赋能""推进全民健康数智化建设"，细读"十 五五"规划建议，前后多次提到"数智化"。 在第四届全球数字贸易博览会数智未来主题展区的杭州六小龙专区，宇树科技的人形机器人在进行格斗擂台赛。新华社记者 徐昱摄 从"数字化"到"数智化"，一字之变，深意何在？ 数字化转型，是指运用数字技术对实体经济产业链供应链各环节进行改造升级和价值重塑的过程。 数智化，则是数字化和智能化的融合体。数智化转型，是指在数字化转型的基础上，引入智能化技术，如自主学习、决策优化、预测分析等，从而提 高生产效率、优化资源配置、提升管理水平、强化创新能力。 以一家大型连锁超市为例—— "数字化"，要做到采购、入库、销售等数据实时采集、随时可查，事后可以此为基础进行数据分析，制定营销决策。 "数智化"，则要开发一套智能系统，系统可根据库存水平、商品保质期等因素自动调整价格、制定销售策略，还要能根据气温变化、节假日等因素， 有效预测产品需求量，并自动生成采购订单。此外，系统还可根据消费者的历史订单，进行个性化商品推荐。 赋能应用，加快"产业智能化"； ...

Group 1: Strategic Importance of New Quality Productivity - Technological innovation is the main battlefield for global competition, with a focus on developing new quality productivity tailored to local conditions[2] - The goal is to leverage breakthroughs in cutting-edge technologies like AI and quantum science to elevate China's modern industrial system towards high-end, intelligent, and green development[2] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is seen as a critical period for transitioning new quality productivity from cultivation to growth, driven by AI and quantum technologies[3] Group 2: Transformation and Upgrading of Traditional Industries - The integration of industrial AI and data elements is expected to enhance the deep fusion of manufacturing capabilities and data management ecosystems[2] - By 2024, the digital R&D design tool penetration rate among key industrial enterprises in China reached 82%, with over 340 influential industrial internet platforms established[14] - A case study of Tianjin TBEA shows a 25% increase in production efficiency and a 16% reduction in unit costs through digital factory modeling[15] Group 3: Growth of Emerging Industries - The AI computing center market in China reached 87.9 billion yuan in 2023, with a projected growth to approximately 101.4 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate exceeding 90%[16] - The AI chip market is expected to grow from 1.41 trillion yuan in 2024 to 1.53 trillion yuan in 2025, indicating strong growth potential[16] - Quantum computing is anticipated to achieve key breakthroughs during the "15th Five-Year Plan," with a global total of 329 quantum computing companies as of July 2024[18] Group 4: Challenges and Countermeasures - China's basic research funding accounted for only 6.91% of total R&D expenditure in 2024, significantly lower than the 12%-23% range in developed countries[21] - The disconnect between technological innovation and the real needs of the economy is a critical challenge, with strategic emerging industries contributing only about 13% to GDP[23] - Ethical and security risks associated with emerging technologies, such as AI and quantum computing, pose significant challenges to national security and social stability[25]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of leveraging vast data and diverse application scenarios to promote the deep integration of digital technology with the real economy, enabling the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries [1] - The recent implementation opinion from the State Council outlines the acceleration of cultivating 22 types of application scenarios, including digital economy and artificial intelligence, which are crucial for addressing the challenges of technology transfer and fostering new productive forces [1][4] Group 1: Innovation Paradigms - The article introduces a "scenario-driven" innovation paradigm that reshapes the path of technology transfer, moving away from the traditional linear model of research followed by application, which often leads to a disconnect between R&D and practical use [2] - It highlights the creation of "comprehensive testbeds" that serve as platforms for validating technologies, nurturing markets, and improving standards, essential for transitioning innovations from research to market products [2] Group 2: Ecosystem Development - The opinion acts as a "aggregator" and "guiding instrument," promoting the aggregation of high-end innovation elements such as talent, capital, and data towards strategic emerging industries, thereby accelerating the formation of new productive forces [3] - It emphasizes the importance of fostering an open innovation ecosystem that encourages cross-regional, cross-sector, and cross-entity collaboration, leveraging China's large-scale market advantages [3] Group 3: Strategic Industry Layout - The opinion outlines the need to focus on strategic emerging industries such as digital economy, artificial intelligence, and clean energy, creating application scenarios that align with national development strategies [4] - It stresses the significance of technology universality and integration, which can lead to transformative innovations across various sectors, exemplified by the impact of artificial intelligence on manufacturing and services [5] Group 4: Implementation Strategies - The article discusses the necessity of a systematic approach to cultivating and opening application scenarios, proposing specific measures across four dimensions: scenario openness, resource allocation, element reform, and institutional experimentation [7] - It suggests the establishment of a complete closed-loop from scenario cultivation to industrial application, emphasizing the role of government and state-owned enterprises in leading major scenario projects [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Mentougou District is focusing on ecological, cultural, and technological development strategies during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, aiming to transform into a desirable destination for residents and visitors alike [1] Group 1: Ecological Development - The district has made significant progress in environmental protection, with PM2.5 average concentration reduced to 23.6 micrograms per cubic meter, a 26.3% decrease from 2020 [2] - Successful completion of comprehensive governance and ecological restoration of the Yongding River, with groundwater levels rising for seven consecutive years, reaching a maximum of nearly 25 meters [2] - The forest coverage rate has reached 48.6%, and the grassland coverage rate is at 93.9%, with ongoing projects for afforestation and ecological restoration [2] Group 2: Cultural Development - Mentougou is developing into a national all-region tourism demonstration area, with tourism revenue reaching 4.13 billion yuan in the previous year [3] - The district is leveraging its rich cultural resources, including historical sites and traditional culture, to promote integrated development of culture, tourism, agriculture, and commerce [3] - Notable cultural projects include the inclusion of the Yongding River ancient irrigation project in the World Irrigation Heritage List and the establishment of multiple non-heritage protection bases [3] Group 3: Technological Development - The district is actively participating in the construction of an international technology innovation center, focusing on artificial intelligence, ultra-high-definition digital audio-visual technology, and cardiovascular medical devices [5] - The number of specialized and innovative enterprises has increased 24 times, reaching 225, while high-tech enterprises have grown by 15.8%, totaling 550 [5] - The annual revenue of the industrial park has surpassed 100 billion yuan, with a per square kilometer output rate of 23.6 billion yuan [5] Group 4: Future Development Plans - Looking ahead to the 15th Five-Year Plan, Mentougou aims to leverage its unique advantages to pursue green and high-quality transformation, enhancing its image as "the blessed land of Beijing's western region" [6]

Group 1 - The 21st Guangxi-Taiwan Economic and Cultural Cooperation Forum opened in Nanning, Guangxi, focusing on "New Opportunities in the Shared AI Era and Promoting New Development in Guangxi-Taiwan Cooperation" [1][2] - Key leaders emphasized the importance of seizing historical trends and opportunities for industrial cooperation and integration, aiming to expand international markets and strengthen the economy of the Chinese nation [1][2] - Guangxi is positioned as a favorable location for collaboration, with multiple advantages in terms of location and policy, encouraging entrepreneurs from both sides to explore business opportunities [1][2] Group 2 - Guangxi is experiencing its best historical development period, with a call for collaboration in the AI sector and the establishment of an AI application cooperation center between China and ASEAN countries [2] - The forum aims to deepen industrial cooperation and promote the integration of supply chains between Guangxi and Taiwan, enhancing cultural, tourism, education, and youth exchanges [2] - The event included discussions on AI industry development, youth innovation and entrepreneurship, and cultural exchanges, with sub-forums focusing on AI industry innovation and biomedicine [3]

Core Insights - The 21st Guangxi-Taiwan Economic and Cultural Cooperation Forum was held in Nanning, Guangxi, focusing on the theme of "Sharing New Opportunities in the AI Era and Promoting New Development in Guangxi-Taiwan Cooperation" [1][2] - The forum aimed to deepen economic and cultural cooperation between the two sides, leveraging artificial intelligence as a new opportunity to expand into the ASEAN market [1][2] Group 1: Forum Objectives and Themes - The forum was co-hosted by the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council and the People's Government of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, with participation from political and business leaders, tech representatives, and youth entrepreneurs [1] - Discussions centered on the construction of a China-ASEAN AI application cooperation center and the integration of AI into various industry scenarios [1][2] Group 2: Regional Development and Collaboration - Guangxi is actively building a cross-border industrial ecosystem that integrates R&D from major cities with applications in ASEAN, aiming to establish itself as a hub for AI cooperation [1] - Taiwan's strengths in semiconductors, AI, and precision manufacturing were highlighted, with an emphasis on collaborative efforts to build a digital service platform and cultivate AI application service providers [1] Group 3: Perspectives on AI and Economic Integration - The forum emphasized the importance of AI in international technological competition and the need for both sides to seize opportunities in this field for regional prosperity and peace [2] - Keynote speeches addressed the innovation and cooperation prospects in the AI and biomedicine industries, fostering deeper exchanges between industries [2]