从文旅细分领域看，该省购物、出行、吃住、游娱等服务业用电量占比分别为41.52%、36.35%、 17.63%、4.51%，日均用电量同比分别增长60.16%、46.08%、67.78%、69.56%。 中新网杭州10月11日电(鲍梦妮 张悦 王姝晏)据国网浙江省电力有限公司10月11日消息，国庆中秋假期 期间(10月1日至10月8日)，浙江省文旅市场用电量达15.71亿千瓦时，日均用电量比2024年同期增长 56.32%，高于全省全社会日均用电量增速22.86个百分点，呈现出吃住游娱齐升温的繁荣景象。 "双节"浙江文旅日均用电量同比增长56.32% 其中，购物领域堪称"增量王"，其总用电量6.52亿千瓦时，日均同比增长60.16%，对文旅用电增长的贡 献率高达43.28%，拉动文旅用电增长24.38个百分点。这一数据得益于"旅游+购物"融合模式在浙江的深 度落地——商圈的节日促销、特色商业街区的沉浸式体验、地方特产的线下展销，让游客在游玩之余忍 不住"买买买"，线下零售用电需求被持续激活。 晴热天气则为"吃住游娱"用电添了一把火。"双节"期间浙江全省平均最高气温达33.35℃，较去年同期升 高11.2℃，助 ...

如何看待当前经济形势？推进"三北"工程建设，要抓好哪些重点工作？围绕经济热点问题，国家发展改 革委29日举行新闻发布会，国家发展改革委政策研究室副主任、新闻发言人李超进行深入分析和解读。 李超表示，下一步，国家发展改革委将会同有关部门，建立持续稳定的工程投入机制，加大资金支持力 度，建立健全生态产品价值实现机制，完善生态保护补偿制度，鼓励企业、公益组织等各类主体参与工 程建设和管护，加强工程质量和资金监管，一以贯之、持之以恒推进工程建设。 从3方面推动新一代智能终端、智能体加快应用普及 "从全局全貌看，尽管面临外部压力，但在宏观政策持续发力等因素带动下，我国经济运行总体平稳， 高质量发展扎实推进。"李超表示。 从供给侧看，生产平稳增长，制造业、服务业的重点领域增势良好。8月份，规模以上装备制造业、高 技术制造业增加值同比分别增长8.1%、9.3%；服务业生产指数同比增长5.6%，住宿餐饮业生产指数增 速比上月加快。工业企业利润明显改善，1至8月，规模以上工业企业利润增速从1至7月的同比下降 1.7%转为增长0.9%。 从需求侧看，政策效能持续显现，展现出较强的韧性和抗压能力。前8个月，全国乘用车新能源市场零 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent implementation of personal consumption loan interest subsidy policies by the central government aims to stimulate consumption and enhance domestic demand through financial collaboration, reducing credit costs for residents and businesses [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Overview - The new subsidy policies provide a 1% interest subsidy for one year, with potential extensions or expansions in support scope [1]. - As of August, the government allocated approximately 420 billion yuan in subsidies, leading to over 2.9 trillion yuan in goods sales [2]. - The policies are designed to enhance consumer willingness and capacity, benefiting upstream and downstream industries [2]. Group 2: Economic Context - China's consumption sector has significant growth potential, transitioning from goods to service consumption, with areas like elderly care and high-quality services presenting market opportunities [3]. - In August, the retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.4% year-on-year, indicating a slight decline in growth momentum [3]. - The balance of consumer loans, excluding personal housing loans, stood at 21.04 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.34%, which is relatively low compared to previous years [3]. Group 3: Implementation and Coordination - Stakeholders are encouraged to ensure the effective implementation of the subsidy policies, focusing on simplifying processes and enhancing efficiency [4]. - Banks are advised to manage credit funds responsibly, ensuring they are used for genuine consumption or business activities [4]. - A coordinated approach among fiscal, financial, industrial, and investment policies is essential to support consumption and improve living standards [5].

Economic Overview - The overall economic operation in China is stable despite external pressures, supported by macro policies and high-quality development efforts [2] - Key sectors such as manufacturing and services are showing positive growth, with significant increases in high-tech manufacturing and service production indices [2] - In August, the value added of major equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing grew by 8.1% and 9.3% year-on-year, respectively, outpacing overall industrial growth [2] Demand Side Analysis - Consumption remains resilient, with retail sales of new energy vehicles increasing over 20% year-on-year in the first eight months [3] - Manufacturing investment grew by 5.1% in the same period, with notable increases in information services and aerospace sectors [3] - Foreign trade showed a 3.5% year-on-year increase in August, with exports to Belt and Road countries rising by 12.8% [3] Artificial Intelligence Initiatives - The government aims for over 70% application penetration of new intelligent terminals and agents by 2027 as part of the "Artificial Intelligence+" initiative [4] - The initiative emphasizes the role of private enterprises in AI development, with significant growth in new AI software companies established [4] - Measures to support private enterprises include promoting innovative operational models for computing power and providing financial incentives for AI research and development [4] "Three North" Project Development - The "Three North" project is the largest ecological restoration initiative globally, with a construction period exceeding 70 years [6] - The new overall plan for the project includes a comprehensive revision based on past experiences and current socio-economic conditions [6] - The project will focus on enhancing ecological quality and developing sustainable industries such as photovoltaic sand control and ecological tourism [6]

中国物流与采购联合会特约分析师张立群认为，9月份制造业PMI指数继续小幅回升，表明稳增长多项 政策的综合效果进一步显现。生产指数明显回升，采购量指数、生产经营活动预期指数回升，显示企业 生产经营活动有恢复迹象。同时要注意价格类指数均有不同程度回落，表明市场供大于求的情况仍然比 较突出；订单类指数均处荣枯线之下，需求不足问题仍需高度重视。 随着高温多雨极端天气影响消退，叠加扩内需促增长政策继续发力，制造业PMI出现回升，但仍位于荣 枯线之下。 国家统计局9月30日发布的数据显示，9月份中国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.8%，较上月上升0.4 个百分点，连续2个月上升。非制造业商务活动指数为50.0%，比上月下降0.3个百分点。 张立群表示，综合看，当前政策推动的经济回升因素与市场引导的经济收缩力量仍处激烈角力之中。要 以力度足够的政府投资有效激活企业投资需求和居民消费需求，使超大规模内需市场尽快摆脱市场引导 的收缩态势，尽快转入持续活跃扩张轨道。 制造业供需改善 9月份制造业部分行业迎来产销旺季，带动制造业整体生产活动加快扩张。生产指数为51.9%，较上月 上升1.1个百分点，连续2个月上升，连续5个月运 ...

围绕经济热点问题，国家发展改革委9月29日举行新闻发布会，国家发展改革委政策研究室副主任、新 闻发言人李超进行深入分析和解读。 我国经济运行总体平稳 "从全局全貌看，尽管面临外部压力，但在宏观政策持续发力等因素带动下，我国经济运行总体平稳， 高质量发展扎实推进。"李超表示。 从供给侧看，生产平稳增长，制造业、服务业的重点领域增势良好。8月份，规模以上装备制造业、高 技术制造业增加值同比分别增长8.1%、9.3%；服务业生产指数同比增长5.6%，住宿餐饮业生产指数增 速比上月加快。工业企业利润明显改善，1至8月，规模以上工业企业利润增速从1至7月的同比下降 1.7%转为增长0.9%。 从需求侧看，政策效能持续显现，展现出较强的韧性和抗压能力。前8个月，全国乘用车新能源市场零 售量同比增长超过20%，服务零售额增长5.1%；制造业投资增长5.1%。8月份，货物进出口总额同比增 长3.5%，出口和进口连续3个月实现双增长，对共建"一带一路"国家出口增长12.8%。 李超表示，将持续发力、适时加力实施宏观政策。同时，持续加强经济监测预测预警，做好政策预研储 备，根据形势变化及时推出。随着各项政策效应充分释放，我们有信 ...

2025年9月26日 [Table_Title] 宏观研究报告 周 浩 黄凯鸿 +852 2509 7582 +852 2509 7214 hao.zhou@gtjas.com.hk kaihong.huang@gtjas.com.hk [Table_Summary] 越南 8 月经济："对等关税"后进出口放缓 -3,000 -2,000 -1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 2021-08 2021-11 2022-02 2022-05 2022-08 2022-11 2023-02 2023-05 2023-08 2023-11 2024-02 2024-05 2024-08 2024-11 2025-02 2025-05 2025-08 贸易余额（右轴） 出口同比增速 进口同比增速 （%） （百万美元） 资料来源： Bloomberg ，国泰君安国际。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 Page 1 of 6 证 券 研 究 报 告 宏 观 越南进出口放缓，贸易顺差加大 越南 8 月工业总产量同比增长 8.9%，高于 7 ...

比如，央行设立两个结构性货币政策工具。5月9日，中国人民银行印发《关于设立服务消费与养老再贷 款有关事宜的通知》，专门设立5000亿元服务消费与养老再贷款，引导金融机构加大对住宿餐饮、文体 娱乐、教育、居民服务、旅游等服务消费重点领域和养老产业的信贷投放。目前，金融机构申报服务消 费与养老再贷款近600亿元，涉及经营主体近4000家，贷款5700多笔。 近日，商务部、中国人民银行等部门印发《关于扩大服务消费的若干政策措施》(以下简称《政策措 施》)，提出发挥金融、财政等政策合力，从供需两端激发服务消费新增量，促进服务消费高质量发 展。 政策合力效应显现 服务消费是经济增长的重要驱动力，在外部环境不确定性加大、国内经济转型调整的宏观背景下，提振 服务消费的必要性不断凸显。 政策引领加快服务消费提质发展。"去年以来，按照党中央、国务院关于大力提振消费、全方位扩大国 内需求的决策部署，中国人民银行出台了一系列金融支持政策，有效带动扩大服务消费供给，支持更好 满足居民服务消费需求。"中国人民银行信贷市场司负责人杨虹表示。 此外，《政策措施》提出，综合运用货币信贷等政策工具，支持金融机构扩大服务消费领域信贷投放， 加大 ...

Core Viewpoint - The financial regulatory authority emphasizes the implementation of the new development concept, focusing on optimizing financial resource allocation and enhancing service quality in key areas and weak links, summarized as "one increase, one optimization, and one supplementation" [1] Group 1: Increase Supply - The focus is on increasing supply to support economic and social development goals, with significant financing for major projects such as the Yangtze River High-Speed Railway and the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, providing ample funding for 102 major projects during the 14th Five-Year Plan [2] - Infrastructure loan balance reached 54.5 trillion yuan, a 62% increase compared to the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [2] - The use of over 700 billion yuan in policy-based development financial tools has leveraged over 9 trillion yuan in investments [2] - Loans to the wholesale, retail, accommodation, and catering sectors increased by 80% [2] - Export credit insurance has provided risk coverage of 4.4 trillion USD, a 52% increase from the 13th Five-Year Plan period [2] Group 2: Optimize Structure - The focus is on optimizing the structure by directing resources towards new productive forces, with loans to high-tech enterprises reaching nearly 19 trillion yuan, growing at an annual rate of over 20% [3] - Insurance funds invested in stocks and equity funds exceeded 5.4 trillion yuan, an 85% increase from the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [3] - Cumulative risk coverage for technology insurance surpassed 10 trillion yuan, supporting 3,600 innovative application projects [3] - Financial regulatory authority has initiated four pilot projects in the technology sector, resulting in over 1 trillion yuan in new investments [3] Group 3: Supplement Weak Links - The authority aims to strengthen financial support for weak links, enhancing financing accessibility for small and micro enterprises, with 17 trillion yuan in loans deferred during the pandemic, benefiting over 10 million businesses [4] - A total of 22 trillion yuan in loans has been issued to support small and micro enterprises since last year [4] - Loans to poverty-stricken areas reached 31.5 trillion yuan, with nearly 400 billion yuan in small loans for impoverished populations [4] - The average annual growth rate of inclusive agricultural loans is 14.6% [4] - Insurance coverage for major grain costs and planting income has increased by 72% during the 14th Five-Year Plan [4] - Health insurance services have provided economic compensation of 1.8 trillion yuan for patients over the past five years [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent joint issuance of the "Several Policy Measures to Expand Service Consumption" by nine government departments aims to address the bottlenecks in service consumption through a coordinated multi-departmental approach, emphasizing the importance of financial support and collaboration among various sectors [1] Group 1: Policy Measures Overview - The policy measures include nineteen specific tasks across five areas: cultivating service consumption promotion platforms, enriching high-quality service supply, stimulating new service consumption growth, enhancing financial support, and improving statistical monitoring systems [1] - The financial sector is highlighted as a key participant in resolving service consumption bottlenecks, with a call for proactive engagement and integration of monetary, credit, and capital market policies [1] Group 2: Financial Sector Initiatives - Financial institutions are encouraged to expand high-quality financial service offerings to meet the unmet financial demands of the service consumption sector and residents, particularly in areas like elderly care, childcare, and cultural tourism [2] - The central bank's establishment of a 500 billion yuan service consumption and elderly re-loan fund is emphasized as a tool to incentivize financial institutions to increase support for sectors such as accommodation and entertainment [2] Group 3: Consumer Credit Support - There is a push to enhance support for consumer credit to stimulate resident consumption potential, with initiatives like tax refunds and consumption vouchers being highlighted [3] - The number of tax refund stores is projected to reach 10,000 by mid-2025, tripling from the end of 2024, with a 98% increase in tax refund sales [3] Group 4: Financial Product Optimization - Financial institutions are urged to continuously optimize financial products and services to provide diverse, high-quality consumption options, focusing on key consumption areas such as food, housing, and entertainment [4] - There is a call for increased support for various types of loans, including first loans, renewal loans, and credit loans, to enhance the financial backing for the consumption sector [4] Group 5: Risk Management and Compliance - Financial institutions are advised to improve credit structure and risk management to ensure precise financial services, avoiding extremes in credit work that could overlook risks [4] - The importance of regulatory measures to enhance compliance and prevent financial bottlenecks in service consumption is emphasized, promoting a virtuous cycle of demand upgrading, supply optimization, and consumption expansion [4]