[Table_Reporto] 2025 年 11 月 02 日 证券研究报告•固定收益定期报告 债券市场跟踪周报（10.27-10.31） 公开市场国债买卖的 2.0 时代 核心观点 西南证券研究院 [Table_Author] 分析师：杨杰峰 执业证号：S1250523060001 电话：18190773632 邮箱：yangjf@swsc.com.cn 分析师：叶昱宏 执业证号：S1250525070010 电话：18223492691 邮箱：yeyuh@swsc.com.cn 相关研究 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 S 本次重启国债买卖或主要为丰富流动性投放结构，而非进一步宽松"信号"。 上周重启国债买卖催化债市多头情绪高涨，货币宽松预期再度升温，但从央行 宣布恢复公开市场国债买卖操作的时间节点和前期暂停目的来看，我们认为本 次操作或主要为增强市场信心、丰富流动性投放结构，而非进一步宽松"信号"。 首先，国债买卖或更类似于"定向降准"，有利于规避银行体系内的结构性矛 盾。当前"大行缺负债、中小行缺资产"的格局依然突出，若使用总量宽松工 具提供长期流动性则可能加剧中小行缺资产现状，从而进一步加深债券市 ...

2025年上半年在经历"政策发力"与"抢出口"之后，经济整体运行稳中向好，但结构性矛盾依然突 出，投资、消费、出口三驾马车动力尚未同步；下半年，我国经济在巩固上半年成绩的基础上，着力 应对新的挑战。如何通过深化改革激发市场活力？如何平衡稳定增长与结构优化、短期压力与长期增 长之间的关系？如何激发民营经济活力、重塑产业链优势、推动科技创新、拒绝"内卷式竞争"，改 善预期与信心，是2026年经济聚焦的核心。 即日起，由联办集团、和讯网联合主办，财经中国会承办的第23届财经风云榜 正式启动线上评选通 道。本次评选覆盖上市公司、银行、保险、金融及综合领域共计五大榜单内容，采用 "网络大众投票 +专家专业评审" 的双轨制评价体系， 遴 选出 促进 2025年中国经济发展的 排头兵 。 如今， 财经风云榜 已连续成功举办二十二届 ， 累计吸引超过千家企业参与评选 ， 是 中国财经领 域极具公信力的评选之一 。 依托和讯网二十余年财经媒体积淀的行业公信力 ， 该榜单 被业界誉 为"中国下一年财经动态的风向标" 。 第23届财经风云榜获奖名单将于财经中国2025年会现场正式公布， 往届获奖者均在评奖周期内实 现品牌声量与业务 ...

大股东全额无条件担保 关于发债，10月24日，横琴人寿就已发布关于与珠海华发集团有限公司签署担保协议的重大关联交易信息披露公告。公告显示，横琴人寿拟发行不超过11 亿元资本补充债券，华发集团提供全额无条件不可撤销连带责任保证担保，被担保的债券合计最高债权额为11亿元。 本次拟在全国银行间市场公开发行不超过11亿元的资本补充债券，期限为10年(在第5年末附有条件的发行人赎回权)。对于这次债券募集资金的用途，横 琴人寿表示是用于补充公司资本，提高公司偿付能力水平，为业务良性发展创造条件，支持公司持续稳健发展。 在此之前，横琴人寿经过了两轮增资，且均是由"华发系"的珠海铧创投资管理有限公司（简称"珠海铧创"）单独增资。 作为横琴粤澳深度合作区的首家全国性寿险法人机构，横琴人寿踩着国家打造大湾区的节奏宣告成立，并因在行业内"特立独行"而被贴上"创新"的标签。 这家致力于打造中国寿险业"专精特新"小巨人的险企，在发展的道路上波折不断。 规模扩张、利润萎缩，偿付能力也需再提升。好在经过"华发系"的两次增资，横琴人寿暂时缓解了资金上的压力，正因股东格局变化，引发了一系列的连 锁变化。从长远看，处在快速发展轨道上的横琴人寿， ...

Group 1: Economic and Financial Strategy - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session approved the "Suggestions on Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development," outlining systematic planning and strategic deployment for economic and social development during the 15th Five-Year period [1] - The article emphasizes the integration of technological and industrial innovation, enhancing the inclusiveness and adaptability of capital market systems, and expanding high-level opening-up [1][2] Group 2: Financial System Improvement - The article by Wang Jiang highlights seven key tasks for building a strong financial nation, including improving the central bank system and promoting healthy capital market development [2][3] - It stresses the need for financial institutions to focus on their main businesses and enhance governance, while also supporting state-owned financial institutions in serving the real economy [3][4] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Macro-Prudential Management - The People's Bank of China aims to construct a scientific and robust monetary policy system and a comprehensive macro-prudential management framework to support high-quality financial development [6][7] - The article outlines the importance of adjusting monetary policy to match economic growth and price stability, emphasizing the need for a balanced approach to short-term and long-term economic goals [7][8] Group 4: International Financial Center Development - The article discusses the continuous development of various financial markets in Shanghai to enhance its global competitiveness and influence [4][5] - It calls for strengthening the cross-border payment and clearing system for the Renminbi and expanding institutional openness in the financial sector [4] Group 5: Trade and Investment Expansion - The article by Wang Wentao emphasizes the significance of expanding high-level opening-up, including promoting trade innovation and enhancing the quality of foreign trade [10][11] - It outlines tasks such as increasing market access in service sectors and optimizing the free trade zone strategy to boost innovation and development [11][12] Group 6: Real Estate Market Development - The article by Ni Hong focuses on promoting sustainable and healthy development in the real estate market through reforms in development, financing, and sales systems [14][15] - It highlights the need for a multi-level housing security system and emphasizes the importance of local governments in adjusting real estate policies based on specific city conditions [15][16]

路巧玲曾任河北省石油化工供销总公司总会计师，国家化学工业部审计局行业指导处副处长、办公室副 主任，国务院稽察特派员总署稽察特派员助理，中央企业工委国有大中型企业专职监事，宝钢集团有限 公司审计部副部长、部长，宝山钢铁股份有限公司审计部部长，宝钢工程技术集团有限公司副总经理、 首席财务官，宝钢集团财务有限责任公司董事，宝武集团中南钢铁集团有限公司董事，华宝信托有限公 司董事，新余钢铁集团有限公司监事，中国宝武钢铁集团有限公司审计部部长、财务部总经理、产业金 融业发展中心总经理、资本运营部总经理等。 路巧玲拥有硕士学位，正高级会计师、注册会计师、审计师职称。 （中国太保） 路巧玲简历 路巧玲，1966年3月出生，现任中国太保非执行董事，华宝（上海）股权投资基金管理有限公司董事。 10月30日，中国太保发布公告称，该公司董事会审议并通过了《关于选举中国太平洋保险（集团）股份 有限公司第十届董事会副董事长的议案》，同意选举路巧玲为公司第十届董事会副董事长，任期为公司 2025年第一次临时股东大会审议通过的《公司章程》获监管机构核准生效日起，至本届董事会届满。 ...

Group 1: Gold Price Forecast - Wells Fargo raised its gold price forecast for the end of 2026 from a previous range of $3,900 to $4,100 per ounce to a new range of $4,500 to $4,700 per ounce [1] - Despite recent price corrections, UOB analysts maintain a positive long-term outlook for gold, citing ongoing central bank purchases and diversification needs amid de-dollarization narratives [7] Group 2: Copper Price Outlook - Goldman Sachs indicated that copper prices may struggle to maintain levels above $10,000 per ton unless there is a significant reduction in inventory, as recent price increases were driven by global supply concerns [2] - The firm does not foresee a genuine supply shortage in the next six months, predicting a slight surplus in the copper market by 2026 [2] Group 3: Interest Rate Predictions - Morgan Stanley's CIO suggested that a slowdown in the labor market could justify a rate cut in December, although uncertainty remains regarding future rate trajectories [3] - MUFG analysts believe that the recent rebound in the dollar is unlikely to last, with expectations for a Fed rate cut in December still on the table, contingent on labor market data [4] - Société Générale's strategist noted that market expectations for Fed rate cuts may be overly optimistic, as the economy remains relatively strong with persistent inflation concerns [5] - BNY Mellon highlighted potential volatility in market expectations for the Fed's December rate decision due to a lack of data [6] Group 4: European Central Bank Outlook - Deutsche Bank analysts noted that ECB President Lagarde signaled that interest rates are likely to remain unchanged for the foreseeable future, reinforcing the current policy stance [3] - The resilience of the Eurozone economy is suppressing dovish tendencies within the ECB, allowing for a pause in current monetary policy [8] Group 5: Capital Market Trends - CITIC Securities reported that the U.S. stock market is driven by corporate fundamentals, with a favorable environment for technology and manufacturing sectors amid improved U.S.-China relations [4] - The report also indicated that while bank stocks have experienced increased volatility, the fundamental landscape remains stable, suggesting potential for absolute return opportunities [5] - China Merchants Securities noted that the capital market's various business lines are expected to improve due to strong investor confidence and sufficient funds [6]

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant increase in fiscal policy, with the budget deficit rate surpassing 4%, reaching a deficit scale of 5.66 trillion, an increase of 1.6 trillion from the previous year, and total government debt reaching 11.86 trillion, up by 2.9 trillion from last year [7][19][20] - The central bank has been optimizing its monetary policy framework since mid-2024, emphasizing the 7-day OMO rate as the main policy rate, with limited rate cuts throughout the year, indicating a cautious approach to monetary easing [11][12] - The report indicates a shift towards a more proactive fiscal policy, with measures such as child subsidies and free preschool education being introduced, alongside a focus on infrastructure projects [19][39] Group 2 - The report discusses the relationship between fiscal and monetary policies, suggesting that if fiscal policy remains restrained, monetary easing may struggle to counteract structural economic pressures [8][19] - It notes that the bond market's long-term interest rates may face upward pressure due to increased government leverage and the need for the central bank to buy government bonds to support the market [13][19] - The report emphasizes that the current economic recovery is weak, with fiscal expansion and liquidity supporting the equity market, while the bond market remains under pressure from risk assets [39][41] Group 3 - The report outlines a clear divergence in performance between new and traditional economic sectors, with technology and advanced manufacturing driving equity market gains, while traditional sectors lag behind [41][33] - It highlights that the bond market's pricing mechanism is increasingly influenced by fiscal policy rather than traditional monetary indicators, indicating a shift in how asset prices are determined [36][46] - The report suggests that the bond market's ability to price economic fundamentals is limited, with institutional behaviors playing a crucial role in determining interest rates [49][53]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 23,831 points, down 145 points or 0.61% [1] - The US stock market also saw a drop, particularly in technology stocks, with the Nasdaq falling approximately 380 points [2] - The overall market turnover in Hong Kong decreased to 82.799 billion, while the southbound funds recorded a net inflow of 13.64 billion [1] Sector Performance - The metals sector continued to show strength, with China Nonferrous Mining rising by 7.4% and Zijin Mining increasing by 4.6% [1] - The software industry in China reported a revenue of 111,126 billion yuan in the first three quarters, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.0% [9] - The pharmaceutical sector has been underperforming, with the healthcare index dropping by 7.5% from August to October [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and industrial software for long-term growth opportunities [3] - It highlights the potential of state-owned enterprises with low valuations and high dividends, as well as upstream non-ferrous metals benefiting from anticipated interest rate cuts [3] - Companies like China Software International and Kingdee International are recommended for their stable growth in the software sector [9] Company Highlights - Tencent's cloud platform is set to charge for its "image understanding" plugin starting November 6 [12] - China National Offshore Oil Corporation reported a net profit of 101.971 billion yuan for the first nine months, a decrease of 12.59% [12] - Companies like Shandong Gold and Junsheng Electronics reported significant profit increases of 68.24% and 35.4% respectively in the third quarter [12]

时隔十年，人身险新标尺落地！ 10月29日，中国精算师协会发布《中国人身保险业经验生命表（2025）》（下称"第四套生命表"），自 2026年1月1日起正式实施。 同日，金融监管总局发布《关于做好<中国人身保险业经验生命表（2025）>发布使用有关事项的通 知》（下称《通知》），对人身保险业科学规范使用第四套生命表提出具体要求。 在分析人士看来，第四套生命表的发布是我国人身险行业迈向精细化、高质量发展的重要里程碑，将促 使保险公司之间的竞争，从单纯的价格战，转向数据积累、风险识别和精算能力的深度较量。从长期来 看，这将有利于提升整个行业的风险管理水平和经营稳健性，最终构建一个更加成熟、公平且可持续的 市场生态。 预期生命提升 生命表是保险产品定价、准备金评估和风险管理的重要基础工具，基于被保险人历史保单数据编制而 成，提供分业务、分年龄、分性别的死亡率数据，反映保险人群的生存和死亡概率分布规律。 回溯来看，1996年，我国第一套生命表发布。此后，为及时反映我国人口结构和死亡率变化趋势，人身 保险业每10年编制完善一次生命表，分别于2005年和2016年发布第二套和第三套生命表。 随着我国经济社会发展和医疗卫生 ...

当前金融高水平对外开放和服务实体经济高质量发展已成为时代命题，京港两地始终是推动企业出海，资本互联互通的核心力量。10月30日，在2025金融街 论坛年会"京港联动 共赢未来"平行论坛上，香港证监会主席黄天祐表示，目前，北京企业在港股市值与数量均占重要地位。香港交易所主席唐家成也在会 上指出，越来越多的科技企业准备来香港上市。在当日的圆桌交流环节，多方代表也就"企业上市破局与金融创新实践"的议题进行了分享，从市场机遇、企 业实践、金融服务等方面，探讨京港资本市场合作的新机遇和新愿景。 "A+H"两地上市潮涌 进一步推动京港两地协同 "未来，我们欢迎更多创新及传统产业的企业进一步利用香港国际融资平台，在获得资金的同时，透过股东结构更多元化来提升公司治理，进一步促进绩效 管理以释放价值，并推动核心价值的传承。"黄天祐在会上表示。 黄天祐进一步提到，香港证监会也积极支持设在北京的金融机构，如银行、券商、基金及保险公司，来港拓展业务、寻求发展机遇，促进金融人才双向流 动，以分享香港市场持续发展的红利。为进一步推动京港两地协同，北交所与港交所已通过签署备忘录探索跨境合作，支持符合条件的上市公司在对方市场 申请上市，并在 ...