Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable credit risk outlook for the chemical industry, with a focus on structural transformation and recovery [5][54]. Core Insights - Since 2025, the chemical industry has experienced slight growth in production volume, but operational rates in certain sectors have declined, leading to structural oversupply and a decrease in product price indices [6][14]. - The industry is undergoing a transformation towards high-end manufacturing and new materials, driven by government policies aimed at reducing competition and promoting green development [6][9]. - The financial health of sample companies has improved, with operating profits turning positive and cash flow significantly improving, although leverage has increased to meet investment needs [6][32]. - The bond financing landscape for the chemical industry has shown net inflows and narrowing spreads, indicating a healthy financing environment [6][45]. - The industry is expected to continue facing pressure on total volume while experiencing structural differentiation, with a shift towards emerging industries as growth drivers [6][54]. Industry Fundamentals Macroeconomic Environment - In the first three quarters of 2025, macroeconomic policies have been coordinated to support economic recovery, although challenges such as weak domestic demand and complex external environments persist [7][8]. - The overall economic performance has shown structural differentiation, with supply outpacing demand and prices remaining weak [7]. Industry Policies and Regulatory Environment - Since 2025, regulatory measures have focused on raising price floors, controlling new capacity, optimizing existing capacity, and promoting industry self-discipline [9][10]. - Key policies include the implementation of the revised Anti-Unfair Competition Law and measures to eliminate low-cost competition [12][9]. Industry Operating Conditions - The chemical industry has faced structural contradictions, with production volume increasing slightly while price indices have continued to decline [14][15]. - In the first ten months of 2025, major sectors such as petroleum and chemical manufacturing saw revenue declines, while fixed asset investment in certain areas increased [15][16]. Industry Financial Status Growth and Profitability - From 2022 to 2024, the industry faced declining revenues and profits, but 2025 has shown signs of recovery with positive growth in operating profits [32][33]. - The average gross margin and return on equity have stabilized, indicating a gradual recovery in financial performance [35][36]. Leverage and Cash Flow - The chemical industry has seen improvements in cash flow, although leverage has increased to support investment needs [39][41]. - The overall debt levels have risen, but the industry maintains a healthy leverage ratio, with room for further leverage [41][43]. Debt Market Performance - The bond market for the chemical industry remains concentrated among high-credit-rated enterprises, with a significant portion of bond issuances coming from state-owned enterprises [45][46]. - The issuance of bonds has increased, with a notable reduction in spreads, indicating improved market confidence [46][51]. Outlook - The chemical industry is expected to continue its transformation towards high-quality development, with emerging sectors providing new growth opportunities despite challenges in traditional markets [54][53]. - Long-term prospects indicate a shift from scale expansion to quality-driven growth, with a stable credit risk outlook for the industry [54][55].

化工&新材料|2026年度策略报告 证券研究报告 2025/12/14 "反内卷"催化周期复苏，"新经济"拉动新材料成长 | 证券分析师: | 王亮 | | --- | --- | | 分析师登记编号: | S1190522120001 | | 证券分析师: | 王海涛 | | 分析师登记编号: | S1190523010001 | 目录 ➢ 电子化学品、新能源上游材料、机器人/低空经济材料、生物基能源及材料等 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明 2 一、 2025年化工行业回顾及2026年展望…………………………………………………4 二、"反内卷"催化周期复苏：关注供需格局的边际改善……………………………….…16 ➢ 石化炼化、农化板块、民爆、氟化工、地产链材料等 三、"新经济"拉动新材料成长：高性能材料国产替代正当时………………….............…32 四、重点公司推荐…………………………...…………………………………….…….……52 五、风险提示………………………………...………………………………….………….…60 化工&新材料产业链上下游概览 细分子行业 典型产品 主要下游 农业、粮食 纺 ...

[Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 12 月 5 日 [Table_ReportDate] 证券研究报告 行业研究 [Tabl 行业投资策略 e_ReportType] 化工行业 张燕生 化工行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500517050001 联系电话：+86 010-83326847 邮 箱：zhangyansheng@cindasc.com 化工 2026 年度策略报告：成长与分红并重，价值再发现 洪英东 化工行业分析师 执业编号：S1500520080002 联系电话：+86 010-83326848 邮 箱： hongyingdong@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅 大厦B座 邮编：100031 [化工Table_T 202i6tle年度] 策略报告：成长与分红并重，价值再发现 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 12 月 5 日 本期内容提要: [Table_Summary] 行业整体承压。 2022 年以来，中国化工品价格指数持续下行，2023- 2025 年 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 31.50 [1][5]. Core Views - The report indicates that the demand for oxalic acid is expected to improve due to growth in the rare earth and lithium battery sectors, with a competitive landscape that is favorable [1]. - The company has a production capacity of 700,000 tons per year for oxalic acid and 300,000 tons per year for caprolactam, positioning it to benefit from the anticipated recovery in market conditions [1]. - The report highlights that the domestic competition for oxalic acid is relatively good, with the company holding a significant market share [3]. Summary by Sections Oxalic Acid Market Outlook - The apparent consumption of oxalic acid in China is projected to reach approximately 417,000 tons in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 87%. The rare earth separation and new energy sectors contribute significantly to this demand [2]. - The oxalic acid precipitation method is a mature technology for rare earth separation, which is expected to support continued demand growth as the strategic importance of rare earth resources increases [2]. Competitive Landscape - As of November 2025, the domestic oxalic acid production capacity is about 1.19 million tons, with a concentrated market where the company holds a 59% share [3]. - The company utilizes a gasification platform to co-produce dimethyl carbonate and oxalic acid, which offers cost and environmental advantages over traditional methods [3]. Caprolactam Market Dynamics - The caprolactam industry is undergoing a "de-involution" process, with companies discussing measures to reduce production by 20% and increase prices by RMB 100 per ton [4]. - The report anticipates that the supply-demand balance will improve, aiding in price recovery for various chemical products [4]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of RMB 32 billion, RMB 45 billion, and RMB 54 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 1.50, RMB 2.10, and RMB 2.56 [5][9]. - The target price of RMB 31.50 reflects a 15x PE ratio for 2026, considering the company's scale advantages and growth potential from new projects [5].

Market Overview - The A-share market opened higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 4000 points, and the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index rising by 3.34% to reclaim 1400 points, while other indices also saw gains of over 1% [1][2] - The total trading volume increased to 2.08 trillion yuan, indicating a moderate expansion in market activity [1] Sector Performance - Key sectors that performed well include industrial metals, electrical machinery, agricultural chemicals, and semiconductors, while forestry, Hainan Free Trade Zone, broadcasting and television, and general retail sectors saw declines [2] - The electronic industry attracted over 20.3 billion yuan in net inflow from major funds, with significant inflows also seen in power equipment, non-ferrous metals, and automotive sectors [2] Investment Insights - According to Debon Securities, the market is entering a policy and performance vacuum period, which may lead to a combination of dividend, micro-market, and industrial trend styles [3] - The agricultural chemical sector experienced a notable surge, with the index rising nearly 4%, marking a three-year high [3][6] - The phosphorous chemical sector reported a net profit of 3.005 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 21.42%, with a significant 51.21% increase in the third quarter alone [9] Emerging Technologies - The human-shaped robot sector is gaining traction, with companies like UBTECH securing significant contracts, including a 1.59 billion yuan order for a data collection project [12] - The demand for human-shaped robots is driven by emerging needs in sectors such as new energy vehicles, robotics, wind power, and drones [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" [1][4] Core Views - The report indicates that the price increase of certain agricultural chemicals may lead to a recovery in industry conditions, with expectations of improved profitability in the future [1][3] - The company's Q3 revenue was 770 million RMB, a year-over-year decrease of 36% and a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 15%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 170 million RMB, showing a year-over-year increase of 5% [1][2] - The report anticipates that the agricultural chemical industry will see improved conditions due to better supply-demand dynamics and rising prices for certain products [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3, the company achieved a revenue of 770 million RMB, down 36% year-over-year and down 15% quarter-over-quarter, with a net profit of 170 million RMB, up 5% year-over-year [1][2] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a total revenue of 2.66 billion RMB, a decrease of 24% year-over-year, and a net profit of 520 million RMB, down 9% year-over-year [1] Price Trends - Prices for certain agricultural chemicals have recently increased, with the average market prices for key products such as glyphosate and dichlorophenyl being 27,000 RMB/ton and 35,000 RMB/ton respectively, showing year-over-year increases of 7% and 1% [2][3] - The report notes that the overall gross margin for the company improved to 32.6%, reflecting a quarter-over-quarter increase of 2.0 percentage points [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for the company have been adjusted downward for 2025, 2026, and 2027, with expected net profits of 740 million RMB, 860 million RMB, and 970 million RMB respectively, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 5% for 2025 [4] - The target price remains at 12.96 RMB, based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 16 times the expected earnings for 2025 [4]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Hubei Yihua with an "Accumulate" rating and a target price of 15.12 RMB, corresponding to a 14x PE for 2025 [1][7]. Core Views - The global fertilizer market is experiencing a recovery, driven by increasing planting areas and rising fertilizer consumption. The tight supply of phosphate resources is leading to higher overseas phosphate fertilizer prices, resulting in strong export profitability for the company [1][2]. - Domestic policies aimed at reducing competition are expected to improve profitability for products like urea, coal, and PVC, indicating a potential recovery in earnings [1][3]. - The company possesses a competitive advantage in phosphate fertilizer production and is expanding its upstream phosphate rock and coal resources to enhance its integrated supply chain [1][3][17]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - Global phosphate supply and demand are expected to remain favorable, with strong export profitability for phosphate diammonium due to tight supply [15]. - Domestic policies are likely to catalyze a recovery in profitability for urea, coal, and PVC products [16]. - The company is expanding its upstream phosphate and coal resources while venturing into the downstream renewable energy sector, which is expected to strengthen its integrated advantages [17]. Market Perspective - The report contrasts with market views that underestimate the overseas fertilizer market's recovery, particularly regarding phosphate prices. It anticipates sustained demand from regions like Brazil and India, with domestic supply constraints further supporting price stability [4][18]. Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.18 billion, 1.41 billion, and 1.69 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 81%, 20%, and 20% [5][11]. - The estimated EPS for the same years is 1.08, 1.29, and 1.55 RMB [5][11]. Company Overview - Hubei Yihua is a leading domestic enterprise engaged in the production of fertilizers (urea, phosphate diammonium) and chemical products (PVC, caustic soda) [19]. - The company has a history of optimizing its industrial layout through asset restructuring and has been expanding into new materials and renewable energy sectors [19][30].

Group 1: Limin Co., Ltd. - In the first half of 2025, Limin Co., Ltd. reported sales revenue of 2.452 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.69% [1] - The net profit reached 269 million yuan, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 747.13% [1] - The performance improvement is attributed to the increase in both volume and price of core products, cost reduction, overseas market expansion, and enhanced capacity utilization [1] - The company has a strong order book for Manganese Zinc orders and minimal inventory, with robust demand for Bacillus thuringiensis in Brazil [1] - The 'one certificate, one product' policy is favorable for the company, and there are plans for technological upgrades and brand building in the second half of the year [1] Group 2: Xinzhi Group - Xinzhi Group achieved revenue of 2.86 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a net profit of 50 million yuan [2] - The net profit margin for the second quarter improved to 2.7%, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 677% [2] - The gross profit margin for the first half was 10.84%, an increase of 0.64 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The drone business is experiencing rapid growth, primarily supplying DJI with motor products for various types of drones [2] - The company is focusing on enhancing product quality in traditional businesses and shortening development cycles in emerging sectors through collaborative R&D [2] Group 3: *ST Chengchang - The company has seen a significant increase in orders and projects due to recovering downstream user demand [3] - Some remote sensing satellite projects are expected to enter small batch production in 2024 and mass production in 2025, indicating substantial growth potential [3] - The company maintains a stable gross profit margin by improving R&D efficiency and optimizing production processes [3] - There is a technological advantage in the low Earth orbit satellite sector, which is anticipated to become a new growth point [3] - The company is actively expanding applications in low-altitude economies and addressing detection blind spots [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of RMB 41.47 [2][6]. Core Views - The company reported a slight decline in net profit for H1 2025, with revenue at RMB 25 billion, down 22% year-on-year, and net profit at RMB 2.76 billion, down 3% year-on-year. However, the phosphate industry remains robust, supported by the company's unique capacity advantages and high dividend yield [2][3]. - The gross margin for the phosphate segment improved due to raw material advantages and significant export price differences, with a gross margin of 39.2% for ammonium phosphate [3][4]. - The company is progressing well with its projects, and a high dividend payout ratio is expected to be maintained, with a commitment to a dividend payout ratio of no less than 45% for 2025-2026 [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of RMB 25 billion, a decrease of 22% year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 2.76 billion, down 3% year-on-year. Q2 revenue was RMB 12 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 34% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14% [2][3]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of RMB 2 per 10 shares for H1 2025 [2]. Phosphate Industry Outlook - The phosphate industry is expected to maintain its favorable conditions due to increased planting areas domestically and internationally, along with tight phosphate resources globally [4]. - As of August 19, prices for key products such as diammonium phosphate and urea have shown stability, with significant price increases observed in overseas markets [4]. Project Progress and Dividend Policy - The company is advancing its projects, including the rapid progress of the Zhenxiong phosphate mine and the trial operation of the Kunyang phosphate mine [5]. - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio, with a commitment to keep it above 45% for the next two years, supported by a decreasing debt ratio [5][6]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 is RMB 5.8 billion, RMB 6.2 billion, and RMB 6.5 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 3.19, RMB 3.39, and RMB 3.59 [6][11]. - The company is valued at a PE ratio of 13x for 2025, aligning with the average of comparable companies [6].

Core Viewpoint - The current fluctuations in the A-share market are seen as a natural adjustment within a bull market, rather than a sign of a market downturn [3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Historical data indicates that bull markets often experience significant pullbacks; for instance, the 2007 bull market saw four instances of over 5% declines, with the largest being over 20% [3]. - Recent trading volume has decreased by nearly 150 billion, indicating a temporary pause in the market after a sustained period of high trading activity [3]. - The financing balance has reached 1.97 trillion, a ten-year high, suggesting increased leverage in the market which can amplify volatility [3]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - There are three key areas where funds are being redirected: 1. Low valuation sectors, with 66.7% of industries still at historical midpoints, while high valuation sectors like military and real estate are in the minority [4]. 2. Companies with strong overseas performance, such as those in computer equipment and agricultural chemicals, which have over 40% of their revenue from international markets [4]. 3. Hong Kong stocks, particularly in technology, are undervalued compared to their A-share counterparts, with catalysts like AI applications and new energy driving potential growth [4]. Group 3: Long-term Investment Strategies - A shift towards long-term holding strategies is recommended, moving away from short-term trading which has been prevalent in recent years [5]. - Key investment themes include: 1. Hard technology breakthroughs, particularly in AI and related applications, with the ChiNext index showing a low valuation percentile of 12.79% [5]. 2. Companies in home goods and general equipment that are managing to increase profits despite trade tensions [5]. 3. Policy-driven opportunities in sectors like family planning and the aging economy, with recent successes in the film industry indicating potential for growth [5]. Group 4: Monitoring Market Indicators - Key indicators to watch include trading volume, valuation levels, and market sentiment: - A trading volume consistently above 1 trillion is seen as a positive sign for market health [6]. - Valuation levels should be assessed by sector, with banking showing a PE ratio at the 95th percentile, indicating caution, while agriculture is at 1.91%, suggesting potential for investment [6]. - Monitoring margin financing levels is crucial; as they approach 2 trillion, it may be wise to reduce exposure to speculative stocks and increase positions in undervalued leaders [6].