工业转型规模化：2025 年高排放行业与净零转型进展 ——报告点评 2026 年 1 月 28 日 ESG 点评报告 核心观点 ：17394948526 ：fangjiacheng_yj@chinastock.com.cn 相关研究 1.【银河 ESG】国有机构投资者是否更关注 ESG？ 分析师 马宗明 ：18600816533 ：mazongming_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524070001 研究助理 方嘉成 2. 【银河 ESG】董事会是否会因为企业非财务表现受 损而罢免 CEO？ 3. 【银河 ESG】聚焦 ESG 分歧的指数增强策略能否 带来超额收益？ 4. 【银河 ESG】兼顾环境的投资组合能否提高投资业 绩？ 5. 【银河 ESG】动态投资风险比较：清洁能源与污染 能源 6. 【银河 ESG】伊斯兰投资能否促进投资组合多元化 7. 【银河 ESG】绿色金融与技术创新是低碳发展的核 心动力 8. 【银河 ESG】地缘政治、清洁能源发展与未来能源 安全 9.【银河 ESG】合力奋进，共御气候变化——碳定 价、政策联动与全球减排之路 10. 【银河 ESG】 ...

工业转型规模化：2025 年高排放行业与净零转型进展 ——报告点评 2026 年 1 月 28 日 ESG 点评报告 ：18600816533 ：mazongming_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524070001 研究助理 方嘉成 ：17394948526 ：fangjiacheng_yj@chinastock.com.cn 相关研究 核心观点 分析师 马宗明 10. 【银河 ESG】全球可持续发展脉搏——应对气候 变化中企业与投资的关键审视 4. 【银河 ESG】兼顾环境的投资组合能否提高投资业 绩？ 6. 【银河 ESG】伊斯兰投资能否促进投资组合多元化 5. 【银河 ESG】动态投资风险比较：清洁能源与污染 能源 7. 【银河 ESG】绿色金融与技术创新是低碳发展的核 心动力 1.【银河 ESG】国有机构投资者是否更关注 ESG？ 8. 【银河 ESG】地缘政治、清洁能源发展与未来能源 安全 2. 【银河 ESG】董事会是否会因为企业非财务表现受 损而罢免 CEO？ 9.【银河 ESG】合力奋进，共御气候变化——碳定 价、政策联动与全球减排之路 3. 【银河 E ...

高盛预计，在企业并购和股票发行活动回暖、零售和企业买盘恢复的背景下，标普500指数在2026年仍 有望触及7800点。 尽管2026年仅过去15个交易日，但市场已经历了一系列密集的政策冲击和地缘政治事件，令投资者感觉 时间远不止如此。高盛首席交易员John Flood指出，从美国对委军事行动到关税威胁，从监管政策转向 到日本国债剧烈波动，市场在短时间内消化的信息量异常庞大。 然而，在这些动荡之下，标普500指数年初至今仍上涨1.02%，市场广度指标大幅改善。能源、材料和 消费必需品板块领涨，而科技股则下跌1.34%。罗素2000指数连续14个交易日跑赢标普500，创下1996 年以来最长纪录。 高盛指出，2025年全年机构投资者仓位一直是美国股市价格走势的顺风因素，因为机构投资者在特朗普 公布对等关税后犹豫增加多头头寸。资产管理公司、主权财富基金和对冲基金基本上在等待明显的回调 作为买入机会，但这种明显的回调从未出现。 然而，去年12月这些机构投入了大量资金，尤其是在医疗保健和金融板块。机构投资者仓位在2026年不 再构成顺风因素。资产管理公司现金水平目前处于历史低位。 高盛主经纪商账簿（系统性和基本面策略合 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that U.S. transportation stocks reached a historical high driven by strong economic growth expectations for the year [1][2] - The Dow Jones Transportation Average Index rose by 1.7%, closing at 18,033.58 points, surpassing its previous historical high set in November 2024 [1] - The index tracks 20 U.S. transportation stocks across various sectors including airlines, trucking, shipping, and logistics, serving as an economic barometer [1] Group 2 - Transportation stocks faced several headwinds over the past 12 months, including trade wars, tariffs, and government shutdowns, which made investors cautious [2] - The sector continued to rise after a 1.2% increase on Monday, with gains attributed to expectations of lower fuel prices due to potential U.S. intervention in Venezuela [2] - As transportation stocks reached new highs, the overall U.S. stock market also strengthened, with major indices like the S&P 500 and Dow Jones hitting record levels [2]

Group 1 - The Dow Jones Transportation Average Index reached a historical high of 18,033.58 points, driven by strong expectations for U.S. economic growth [1][3] - The index, which tracks 20 U.S. transportation stocks across various sectors including airlines, trucking, shipping, and logistics, is considered a barometer for the economy due to its insights into supply and demand across industries [3] - The rebound in transportation stocks follows a challenging year marked by trade wars, tariffs, and a prolonged government shutdown that negatively impacted the sector [3] Group 2 - Transportation stocks continued to rise after a 1.2% increase on the previous day, with airlines and logistics stocks benefiting from expectations of lower fuel prices due to potential U.S. intervention in Venezuela [3] - The overall U.S. stock market also performed well, with all three major indices closing higher, including the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones, which surpassed 49,000 points for the first time [3] - Market strategist Michael O'Rourke noted that transportation stocks are catching up to the overall market performance after facing several headwinds over the past year [3]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has upgraded the outlook for the freight transportation industry in 2026 to "attractive," citing the best risk-reward profile since 2020, despite unclear industry prospects [1] Trucking Industry - In a bearish scenario, the trucking industry in 2026 is expected to be similar to 2025, but in a bullish scenario, stock prices could see over a 50% upside [1] - 2026 is anticipated to be a decisive year for autonomous trucks, as companies will seek to expand pilot fleets in preparation for commercial launches in 2027 [1] Rail Industry - The focus for the rail industry in 2026 will be on the merger developments between Union Pacific (UNP.US) and Norfolk Southern (NSC.US), among others [1] - If the fundamentals do not keep pace with the trucking industry during the upcycle, merger enthusiasm may decline; low single-digit percentage growth in volume and rates is expected [1] - Preference continues for Canadian rail companies over U.S. rail companies [1] Logistics/Third-Party Logistics Industry - 2026 may be a transformative year for brokers, as some stocks begin to reflect the "AI concept halo" [1] - The effectiveness and sustainability of technology enhancements will be evaluated, along with how AI-enabled brokers respond to the upcycle and maintain market share against asset-based carriers [1] Package Delivery Industry - 2026 is expected to be a critical year for package delivery companies as major cost/restructuring plans reach completion, providing clearer insights into normalized EPS levels [1] - Structural changes in the e-commerce market may continue, with rural delivery and returns becoming new competitive fronts [1] Stock Recommendations - Morgan Stanley has upgraded the ratings for Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP.US) and Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL.US) from "market perform" to "overweight" [1] - Knight-Swift Transportation (KNX.US) remains the top-ranked stock in the freight transportation industry for 2026, followed by GXO Logistics (GXO.US) and Ryder (R.US) [1] - Canadian National Railway (CNI.US) and Canadian Pacific Kansas City have entered the top five rankings [1]

Group 1 - Investors are shifting away from technology giants and moving towards underperforming small-cap stocks and traditional economic sectors like transportation, as evidenced by the Russell 2000 index rising 9.4% since November 20, compared to a 5.1% increase in the S&P 500 index [1] - The market is questioning the sustainability of the "AI boom" that has previously driven tech stocks, with major players like Nvidia and Microsoft seeing stagnation in their stock performance [1] - There is growing optimism about a U.S. economic recovery in the first half of 2026, prompting investors to favor value stocks over growth stocks [1] Group 2 - Strategas Asset Management recommends overweighting an equal-weighted S&P 500 index over a traditional market-cap weighted version, anticipating that upcoming tax reforms and events like the World Cup will boost economic growth [4] - Bank of America suggests that sectors closely tied to the economic cycle, such as residential construction, retail, and transportation, will see the best relative returns [4] - Oppenheimer Asset Management predicts an 18% increase in the S&P 500 index to around 8100 points in 2026, based on expectations of steady economic growth and loose monetary policy [4] Group 3 - In November, the equal-weighted S&P 500 index rose 1.7%, while the traditional market-cap weighted version only increased by 0.3%, indicating a shift in market leadership [5] - The healthcare sector led the market in November with a 9.1% increase, while the information technology sector fell by 4.4%, highlighting a reversal in the performance of value versus growth stocks [5] - Momentum stocks have significantly underperformed the market, suggesting a transition in market leadership from previously dominant sectors to those that had lagged [5] Group 4 - The rotation within the market continues, with the Russell 2000 index outperforming both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices [6] - Concerns over AI spending data following tech earnings reports have triggered this rotation, allowing previously underperforming sectors to catch up [6] - Despite a recent pullback, the technology sector has still shown substantial gains over the year, with over two-thirds of its components trading above their 200-day moving average [6]

Core Viewpoint - The hedge fund Coatue asserts that betting on AI remains a sound investment choice, based on a comprehensive analysis of over 30 market bubbles over the past 400 years, highlighting fundamental differences between the current AI boom and historical bubbles [1][5]. Summary by Sections AI Boom Analysis - Coatue analyzed the current AI hype against historical bubbles, concluding that the speed of AI adoption significantly surpasses that of personal computers and the internet [4]. - The probability of an "AI boom" scenario, where AI enhances productivity and GDP while controlling inflation, is estimated at two-thirds [2]. Risk Assessment - The risk of an AI bubble bursting leading to a market crash and economic recession is assessed at one-third [3]. - Despite acknowledging some concerning traits of the current AI landscape, such as the large scale of leading companies and high capital expenditure levels, Coatue emphasizes that these similarities to past bubbles are less critical than the differences [7]. Financial Metrics - Current AI leaders' price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are not at the extreme highs seen during the internet bubble, indicating healthier valuation levels [6]. - The capital expenditures in AI are primarily funded by robust operating cash flows rather than excessive leverage, which is a positive indicator [6]. Long-term Growth Potential - Coatue believes that AI-driven profit growth will support substantial investments over the next 5 to 10 years, with significant impacts on various sectors beyond technology, including e-commerce and advertising [6]. - The fund cites examples from companies like Amazon and Shopify, which are experiencing notable growth due to AI advancements [6]. Investment Portfolio - Coatue's investment portfolio reflects a strong belief in AI, with major holdings in companies like CoreWeave, Meta Platforms, Amazon, GE Vernova, and Microsoft, alongside a 5% allocation to companies closely tied to the AI ecosystem, such as Constellation Energy, TSMC, and Nvidia [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent decline in U.S. stock indices due to concerns over regional bank loan issues and ongoing trade tensions, which have negatively impacted market sentiment [1][2]. Market Dynamics - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 301.07 points, a decrease of 0.65%, closing at 45,952.24 points; the Nasdaq dropped 107.54 points, down 0.47%, ending at 22,562.54 points; and the S&P 500 index decreased by 41.99 points, a decline of 0.63%, closing at 6,629.07 points [6]. - The S&P 500's 11 sectors experienced widespread declines, with the financial sector down 2.75% and the energy sector down 1.12%, while the information technology sector saw a slight increase of 0.13% [7]. Banking Sector Concerns - Zions Bank's stock plummeted by 13% after revealing unexpected loan losses in its California division, raising concerns about potential credit pressures in the banking system amid an uncertain economic outlook and high interest rates [1]. - Western Alliance's shares fell by 10.8% following the announcement of a fraud lawsuit against a borrower, contributing to heightened anxiety regarding commercial loan risks [1]. Investor Sentiment - The VIX index, known as the "Wall Street Fear Index," surged to 25.31, marking the highest closing level since April 24, indicating increased market volatility [3]. - Investors are particularly sensitive to any signs of credit-related losses, leading to declines in most small financial and bank stocks [2]. Trade and Economic Outlook - The uncertainty surrounding global trade is exacerbating market instability, with analysts noting that the potential impacts on the economy and markets are significant [3]. - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, further complicating the economic landscape [5]. Earnings Expectations - Analysts project that S&P 500 companies will see an overall earnings growth of 9.2% year-over-year for the third quarter, an increase from the previous forecast of 8.8% [4].

Core Viewpoint - Heavy-duty truck sales, a critical indicator of industrial health, have dropped to their lowest level in four years, signaling potential economic challenges ahead for the U.S. economy [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Trucking has historically been a leading indicator of economic health; increased truck purchases indicate business expansion, while decreased orders suggest anticipated economic downturns [2] - Economists note that heavy truck sales often decline before recessions, with past data showing noticeable drops leading up to economic crises, including the 2008 recession [3] Group 2: Current Challenges - Weak freight volumes are observed as consumers are spending more cautiously, resulting in fewer goods available for transport [4] - A cooldown in construction activity due to higher borrowing costs has delayed projects and reduced demand for heavy equipment transport [5] - Tariff pressures from import duties on steel, aluminum, and parts are increasing costs and squeezing margins for manufacturers and fleet operators [5] - Regulatory uncertainty, including the phase-out of clean-energy tax credits and unresolved emissions rules, is causing fleet managers to hesitate on large new orders [6] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The current pullback in truck sales may not lead to a severe recession, as the U.S. economy has evolved, with services and technology now comprising a larger share of GDP, helping maintain positive growth despite industrial weaknesses [7]