首先，春季行情换挡，关注业绩的改善和成长。 上周市场表现出明显的分化特征，大盘蓝筹股走势承压，中小盘股表现活跃；大金融行业出现调 整，周期类行业涨幅领先。这种板块分化和轮动以及市场风格的切换是春季行情进入换挡期的典型特征，即当前市场不再是一个齐涨共跌、加速上行的格 局，而是一个震荡分化、来回拉锯的市场。此外，目前仍在上市公司年报业绩的预披露期间，投资者对业绩超预期和行业景气度高的领域仍会重点关注， 这往往也是春季行情的主要战场，即具备业绩成长性的投资逻辑。 上周市场震荡分化，量能下降。 沪指上周小幅反弹，盘中波动率明显下降，周三之后重新回到五天均线上方。深圳成指表现强于沪市，收盘价正在 接近前周的高点。量能方面，上周两市日均量能约 27000 亿元，较前周明显下降。上周市场热点主要集中在周期性行业。 中证2000 与沪深 300 的比值（归一化处理后）为1.51，较前周继续上升，创出新高 。全周中小盘和科创板涨幅领先，大盘蓝筹股表 现落后。 当前阶段的主要市场特征是板块分化、市场总体波动率下降，同时伴随成交量的萎缩。短期需要关注各分类指数5天均线的支撑力度。 风险提示： 国际地缘、贸易冲突超出预期；全球金融市 ...

从板块来看，看好军工板块的投资者比例大幅提高，环比提升6个百分点。 对下周上证指数怎么看? 4% ■ 震荡走高,突破4200点 43% ■ 晨荡走低,跌破4000点 ■ 横盘震荡 46% ■ 无法判断 7% A股持续震荡走高，投资者信心回升，但目前上证指数处于近十年高位，同样有部分投资者对市场上涨 势头有所迟疑。数据显示，43%的投资者认为下周市场将"震荡走高，突破4200点"；46%的投资者认为 市场将"横盘震荡"；仅有7%的投资者明确看空市场，表示下周市场将"震荡走低，跌破4000点"。 | 军工板块看好比例大幅提高 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 行业 12月27日调管 | | 1月3日调查 | 1月10日调查 | | 大金融 | 6% | 5% | 4% | | 大消费 | 8% | 6% | 4% | | 医药 | 4% | 3% | 5% | | 科技 | 47% | 58% | 56% | | 年1 | 7% | 7% | 13% | | 有色金属 | 16% | 11% | 9% | | 新能源 | 8% | 4% | 2% | | 次新股 | - | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the potential for value re-evaluation in Chinese equity assets, particularly in the context of structural opportunities arising from macroeconomic shifts and technological advancements such as AI and lithium battery industries [2][6][12]. Group 1: Market Outlook - The Chinese equity market is at a critical juncture of transitioning from old to new growth drivers, with significant structural opportunities emerging from sectors like AI, high-end manufacturing, and new energy [2][6]. - Morgan Asset Management's China equity team focuses on long-term investment value through in-depth industry research, aiming to provide sustainable alpha for investors [2][6]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investment Director Du Meng believes that the future of Chinese equity assets is likely to see a value re-evaluation, driven by international investors reassessing the allocation value of Chinese assets [6][12]. - The investment strategy includes a focus on AI as a major industry trend, with a dynamic approach to participation and adjustment based on ongoing developments [6][12]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The lithium battery industry is viewed positively for 2026 due to a balanced supply-demand state, new demand from energy storage, and attractive valuations as profit margins are currently low [8][12]. - The AI industry is recognized as a significant trend, with expectations of sustained capital expenditure growth and a focus on companies with strong technological barriers and high order visibility [12][16]. Group 4: Consumer and Financial Sectors - The consumer sector is expected to show structural opportunities, particularly driven by younger generations' spending habits, which differ significantly from previous generations [12][35]. - The financial sector is anticipated to benefit from favorable policies aimed at building a strong financial system, with specific attention to the potential of brokerage and insurance companies [33][35]. Group 5: ETF and Index Investment - The global trend towards index investing continues to grow, with significant inflows into ETFs, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, where China's ETF market is rapidly expanding [39][40]. - Morgan Asset Management's strategy in the ETF space focuses on providing differentiated solutions and enhancing investor experience through a "boutique" approach [40].

Group 1 - The A-share market has entered a strong bullish phase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.92% and surpassing the 4100-point mark for the first time in 10 years, achieving a 16-day consecutive increase [1] - The market's trading volume has significantly increased, with the A-share market's turnover exceeding 3 trillion yuan for the first time in nearly four months, indicating a surge in investor sentiment [2] - Economic expert Pan Helin suggests that the current rise in A-shares is driven by the appreciation of the RMB, leading to a global capital inflow, and that this bullish trend is within a reasonable range [2] Group 2 - Pan Helin notes that while the bull market may experience fluctuations, the overall stock market will remain strong until the global economic boom cycle ends, indicating a structural bull market [3] - Certain popular sectors are expected to continue reaching new highs, while less favored sectors may need to wait for market rotation opportunities [3]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a strong rally on January 9, with all three major indices rising. The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.92%, surpassing the 4100-point mark for the first time in 10 years, marking a 16-day consecutive rise [1] - The ChiNext Index rose by 0.77%, driven by surges in AI application themes, particularly in the film, short drama, and gaming sectors. Other leading sectors included commercial aerospace, humanoid robots, and small metal concepts, while the photovoltaic and large financial sectors weakened [1] Trading Volume and Investor Sentiment - Since the beginning of 2026, the market has maintained a trading volume exceeding 2.5 trillion yuan for four consecutive trading days, with today's half-day volume surpassing 2 trillion yuan, indicating a rapid increase in investor sentiment [3] - Historical data shows that such high trading volumes are rare in A-share history, with only six instances of daily trading volumes exceeding 3 trillion yuan. The most recent occurrence was on October 8, 2024, with a volume of 34,835.43 billion yuan [3][4] Market Dynamics and Economic Analysis - Economist Pan Helin stated that the current performance of the A-share market indicates a transition into a full bull market phase, driven by the appreciation of the yuan and the return of global capital. He noted that the upward trend in A-shares is still within a reasonable range compared to global markets [9] - Pan further analyzed that once trading volumes exceed 3 trillion yuan, market sentiment will likely push the market higher. This phase of growth may be less correlated with earnings and value, representing a typical characteristic of a bull market [9] Structural Characteristics of the Bull Market - Despite the bullish trend, Pan cautioned that fluctuations may occur during the bull market, with potential for short-term adjustments. However, the overall market is expected to remain strong until the end of the global economic prosperity cycle [10] - The current bull market is characterized as structural, with certain popular sectors likely to continue reaching new highs, while less popular sectors may need to wait for market rotation opportunities [10]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced fluctuations with strong performance in sectors such as aerospace, shipbuilding, internet services, and power equipment, while energy metals, securities, insurance, and non-ferrous metals lagged behind [1] - Key factors supporting the market include increased attractiveness of RMB assets, expectations for early-year credit issuance, and positive changes in corporate profit structures driven by advanced manufacturing and overseas enterprises [1] - The domestic monetary policy is expected to maintain a stance of "moderate easing," with the market anticipating that the Federal Reserve will continue its rate-cutting cycle into 2026, leading to a more accommodative global liquidity environment [1] Group 2 - The A-share market continued to show a mixed trend, with large-cap stocks underperforming while small-cap stocks and thematic investments, particularly in commercial aerospace and brain-computer interface sectors, performed well [2] - The market is likely to experience structural fluctuations, with profit-taking from previous gains and a supportive environment for a "slow bull" market, suggesting a focus on mainline sectors and careful management of rotation rhythms [2] - The market remains in a healthy adjustment phase, with the CSI 1000 and Sci-Tech 50 indices outperforming others, and the overall trend for the Shanghai Composite Index remains strong as long as it does not fall back below historical trendline pressures [2]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a mixed performance on Thursday, with the Shanghai Composite Index experiencing a slight decline of 0.07% to close at 4082.98 points, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index fell by 0.51% and 0.82%, closing at 13959.48 points and 3302.31 points respectively [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 28.265 billion yuan, a decrease of 55.2 billion yuan compared to Wednesday [1] - Despite the overall decline, over 3700 stocks rose, with more than 110 stocks hitting the daily limit [1] Market Sentiment - The market is experiencing increased divergence, with the Shanghai Composite Index managing to maintain a "15 consecutive days of gains" despite fluctuations, leading to heightened discussions about the sustainability of this trend and potential short-term technical adjustments [1][2] - The combination of market divergence and shrinking trading volume has amplified cautious sentiment among investors [2] Economic Data Impact - January is traditionally a "data verification period" for the A-share market, with upcoming releases of key macroeconomic data such as PMI, social financing, and consumption expected to influence market volatility [2] - If the economic data underperforms, it may exacerbate short-term fluctuations and trigger technical adjustments; conversely, better-than-expected data could provide new momentum for the ongoing rally [2] Technical Analysis - The market is currently in a phase of adjustment, with all three major indices showing slight declines, yet still maintaining a trading volume above 2.8 trillion yuan [3] - There is a notable divergence between large-cap and small-cap stocks, with significant activity in sectors like commercial aerospace, brain-computer interfaces, and AI applications, while large financials and materials sectors are facing corrections [3] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to manage their positions carefully and respond rationally to market conditions, rather than engaging in panic selling or chasing high-flying stocks [3] - A recommended strategy is to maintain a position size of around 50-60%, reducing leverage and exposure to high-volatility stocks to mitigate potential risks [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Composite Index opened higher and rose over 1%, reaching a ten-year high, while the CSI A500 Index increased by 1.24% [1] Market Performance - The A500 ETF tracking the CSI A500 Index rose by over 1% by the morning close, with 12 related ETFs having a trading volume exceeding 100 million yuan, and 2 surpassing 10.6 billion yuan [1] - Specific A500 ETFs such as Huatai-PB and A500 Fund had trading volumes of 11.05 billion yuan and 10.65 billion yuan respectively [1] Sector Analysis - The brain-computer interface concept continued to show strong performance, while the financial sector also strengthened, and the non-ferrous metals sector was active [1] - Conversely, the computing hardware concept experienced a decline [1] Economic Outlook - Analysts from brokerage firms suggest that the A-share bull market is expected to continue due to resilient overseas economic conditions, likely ongoing dollar liquidity easing, and domestic policies maintaining a "double easing" tone [1] - The ongoing "anti-involution" trend is expected to boost price expectations, with technology growth remaining the long-term market focus [1]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the aviation sector, particularly in the context of the appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) and its impact on various industries including airports and light industry paper manufacturing [1][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to enhance the financial performance of sectors like aviation and light industry paper due to improved cost and debt structures [1][3]. - Historical data indicates that different sectors lead the market during phases of rapid RMB appreciation, with core assets leading in 2017, new energy and military industries in 2020-2021, and economic recovery valuation logic in late 2022 to early 2023 [1][6]. - The current phase of RMB appreciation differs from previous ones, with reduced foreign capital influence and increased domestic pricing power, shifting market focus towards technological transformation rather than mere economic recovery [1][7]. - The aviation sector is highlighted as a key beneficiary, with significant cost components (over 60%) being dollar-denominated, meaning even slight RMB appreciation can lead to substantial profit increases [3][9]. Investment Opportunities - Short-term investment opportunities are identified in the aviation and light industry paper sectors, particularly as companies prepare to release annual reports [1][8]. - The second tier of investment opportunities includes foreign-invested blue-chip stocks such as electric equipment, electronics, and food and beverage sectors, which have shown resilience during past RMB appreciation phases [5]. - The third tier includes large financial and real estate sectors, which have a high proportion of RMB-denominated assets, benefiting from balance sheet improvements during RMB appreciation [5]. Additional Important Insights - The global aircraft manufacturing industry is facing supply chain bottlenecks due to de-globalization, affecting the availability of materials and components [11]. - The performance of Chinese airlines has significantly outpaced the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, driven by increased international route demand and favorable pricing dynamics [12]. - Airlines like China Southern, China Eastern, Air China, and budget carriers such as Spring Airlines are identified as high-elasticity investment opportunities due to their potential recovery from historical lows [3][12]. - The upcoming delivery of new aircraft orders (e.g., Spring Airlines and Juneyao Airlines) is expected to support fleet updates and future growth [10].

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that the equity market is showing signs of upward momentum, with the total A-share index rising by 0.60% and trading volume increasing by 467 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1][2] - The report highlights that the market is attempting to establish new narratives, which historically accompany successful breakthroughs of previous highs at year-end [1][2] - The report suggests that the index is approaching previous highs, with the total A-share index breaking through 6400 points, nearing the highs of October and November [2] Group 2 - The report identifies strong performance in specific sectors, particularly defense, military, and communication industries, which have successfully broken through previous high points, indicating a positive market sentiment towards these sectors [2] - The commercial aerospace sector has led the market with a cumulative increase of 31.12% since November 24, and its trading volume has reached a historical high of 6.05% of total A-share trading volume [3] - The bond market is experiencing a mixed performance, with short-term bonds showing a downward trend while long-term bonds are under pressure due to rising yields influenced by equity market movements [4][5] Group 3 - The report notes that the commodity market has shifted from a broad rally to a more differentiated performance, with precious metals experiencing a decline while industrial metals remain resilient [6] - The report emphasizes that the long-term bullish logic for precious metals remains intact, but short-term volatility may arise due to profit-taking after significant price increases [7] - The report discusses the dynamics in the polysilicon industry, where price increases are being driven by supply-side adjustments, despite ongoing supply-demand imbalances [7]