Core Insights - The national general public budget revenue for the first eight months of this year reached 14.82 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.3%, with the growth rate improving by 0.2 percentage points compared to the first seven months [1] - Tax revenue for the same period amounted to 12.11 trillion yuan, a slight increase of 0.02% year-on-year, marking the first positive cumulative growth [1][2] Tax Revenue Growth - Major tax categories maintained positive growth, with domestic value-added tax at 47,389 billion yuan (up 3.2%), domestic consumption tax at 11,523 billion yuan (up 2%), corporate income tax at 31,477 billion yuan (up 0.3%), and personal income tax at 10,547 billion yuan (up 8.9%) [2] - Manufacturing and financial sectors showed rapid tax revenue growth, with manufacturing accounting for over 30% of total tax revenue and experiencing growth rates exceeding 5% [2] - High-end manufacturing sectors, such as railway, shipbuilding, aerospace, and other transportation equipment manufacturing, saw tax revenue growth exceeding 30% [2] Economic Factors Supporting Tax Revenue - The increase in tax revenue is attributed to a series of effective policies and a stable economic environment, leading to high-quality development [4] - The capital market's active trading in July and August contributed significantly, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3,800 points and A-share total market value exceeding 100 trillion yuan [4] - Tax revenue from the securities industry grew over 70%, while insurance industry tax revenue increased by over 10% during the same period [4] Compliance and Taxpayer Awareness - Enhanced awareness of lawful and honest tax payment among taxpayers has been noted, supported by tax authorities' efforts in promoting compliance and fair taxation [5] - The increase in tax revenue is also influenced by a lower base from the previous year, which may lead to a potential decline in growth rates in the fourth quarter due to a higher base effect [5] Fiscal Expenditure and Policy Outlook - National general public budget expenditure has been growing, with social security and employment spending increasing by 10% and education spending by 5.6% in the first eight months [8] - The overall fiscal situation is improving, with expectations for continued positive trends in revenue and expenditure in the latter half of the year [8] - Future tax administration will focus on legal fairness and compliance management to foster a favorable business environment for high-quality economic development [8]

来源：人民日报海外版 作者：汪文正 财政部近日发布的数据显示，今年前8个月，全国一般公共预算收入14.82万亿元，同比增长0.3%，增幅 比前7个月提高0.2个百分点；全国税收收入12.11万亿元，比去年同期多26亿元，微增0.02%，累计增幅 首次转正。专家分析，今年以来一系列增量和存量政策持续显效，经济运行稳中有进，高质量发展取得 新成效，为税收收入增长奠定基础。 主体税种保持正增长 国家税务总局发布的数据显示，今年前8个月，税务部门征收税收收入(未扣除出口退税)同比增长2%， 其中7、8月份税收收入明显回升，增幅均超过5%，累计增幅逐月提高。 分税种看，前8个月，国内增值税、国内消费税、企业所得税和个人所得税四大主体税种均保持正增 长。其中，国内增值税47389亿元，同比增长3.2%；国内消费税11523亿元，同比增长2%；企业所得税 31477亿元，同比增长0.3%，累计增幅实现转正；个人所得税10547亿元，同比增长8.9%。 经济运行稳中向好是重要原因。"经济决定税收。今年以来，一系列增量和存量政策持续显效，经济运 行稳中有进，高质量发展取得新成效，为税收收入增长奠定了基础。"国家税务总局税收科学 ...

Core Insights - The overall public budget revenue in China for the first eight months of the year reached 14.82 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.3%, with tax revenue slightly increasing by 0.02% to 12.11 trillion yuan, marking the first positive cumulative growth [2][3] Tax Revenue Growth - Major tax categories, including domestic value-added tax, domestic consumption tax, corporate income tax, and personal income tax, all maintained positive growth in the first eight months [3] - Domestic value-added tax amounted to 47,389 billion yuan, up 3.2% year-on-year; domestic consumption tax reached 11,523 billion yuan, increasing by 2%; corporate income tax was 31,477 billion yuan, with a growth of 0.3%; personal income tax totaled 10,547 billion yuan, rising by 8.9% [3] - The manufacturing and financial sectors exhibited rapid tax revenue growth, with manufacturing accounting for over 30% of total tax revenue and showing an increase of over 5% [3] Economic Factors Supporting Tax Revenue - The increase in tax revenue is attributed to a series of effective policies and a stable economic environment, leading to high-quality development [5][6] - The capital market's activity significantly contributed to tax revenue, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3,800 points in August, and daily stock trading volume averaging 2.3 trillion yuan [6] - Enhanced compliance and tax awareness among taxpayers, driven by tax authorities' efforts, have also supported tax revenue growth [6][7] Fiscal Expenditure and Policy Outlook - National public budget expenditure has been on the rise, with social security and employment spending increasing by 10% and education spending by 5.6% in the first eight months [8] - The overall fiscal situation is improving, with expectations for continued positive trends in revenue and expenditure in the latter half of the year [8]

分税种看，前8个月，国内增值税、国内消费税、企业所得税和个人所得税四大主体税种均保持正增 长。其中，国内增值税47389亿元，同比增长3.2%；国内消费税11523亿元，同比增长2%；企业所得税 31477亿元，同比增长0.3%，累计增幅实现转正；个人所得税10547亿元，同比增长8.9%。 分行业看，制造业、金融业税收保持较快增长，其中，制造业占全部税收的比重超过30%且税收增幅在 5%以上，"压舱石"作用明显。特别是部分高端制造业税收增长较快，如铁路、船舶、航空航天和其他 运输设备制造业税收增幅在30%以上。资本市场服务业和相关的保险业等税收增幅均在两位数以上，租 赁和商务服务业等现代服务业税收也增势良好。 分地区看，东部地区税收增速明显高于全国平均水平，特别是上海、江苏、广东、浙江等经济大省增速 较高。 中国社会科学院财经战略研究院研究员何代欣分析，企业所得税实现正增长，关键领域、重点行业和重 点企业的增长发挥了重要带动作用；文化体育娱乐业等方面的税收增速加快，受益于提振消费政策的作 用和服务业的增长。 多因素支撑税收收入增长 财政部近日发布的数据显示，今年前8个月，全国一般公共预算收入14.82万亿元 ...

Group 1 - National general public budget revenue for the first seven months reached 1,358.39 billion yuan, marking a 0.1% increase, the first positive growth this year [1] - The increase in fiscal revenue is supported by stable economic performance, with a recovery from a 1.6% decline at the beginning of the year [1] - Policies aimed at boosting consumption and investment have shown effectiveness, with notable growth in cultural, sports, and entertainment sectors [1] Group 2 - Positive interaction between fiscal revenue and macroeconomic policies is evident, particularly in sectors like equipment manufacturing and modern services [2] - Tax revenue from industries such as aerospace, shipbuilding, and cultural services has maintained a high growth rate, supported by fiscal spending on "two new" policies [2] - The reliance on non-tax revenue is decreasing, indicating an improvement in the structure of fiscal revenue [2] Group 3 - Continued efforts are needed to maintain a positive cycle between fiscal policy and economic growth, with a focus on consumer spending and technological innovation [3] - The "three guarantees" (basic livelihood, wages, and operational stability) must be prioritized to ensure social stability and economic order [3] - Central government has increased transfer payments to local governments to support fiscal capacity, emphasizing the importance of monitoring and addressing fiscal risks [3] Group 4 - To sustain the recovery of fiscal revenue, it is essential to stabilize employment, businesses, and market expectations, while implementing proactive fiscal policies [4]

Group 1: Fiscal Performance Overview - In July, the broad fiscal revenue increased by 3.6% year-on-year, compared to 2.8% in June[1] - Broad fiscal expenditure in July rose by 12.1% year-on-year, down from 17.6% in June[1] - The public fiscal revenue in July marked the highest monthly growth of the year, with tax revenue showing positive growth for four consecutive months[15] Group 2: Concerns about Fiscal Decline - "Fiscal decline" refers to a significant drop in expenditure growth in the second half of the year if no budget adjustments are made[2] - There is a risk of fiscal decline this year, with potential expenditure growth ranging from -0.4% to 2.1% in the second half, marking the lowest since 2022[9] - The gap between the first and second half of the fiscal expenditure growth could reach 6.8% to 9.3%, the largest since 2022[9] Group 3: Economic Impact and Adjusted Expenditure - Even without extraordinary fiscal policies, the adjusted fiscal expenditure growth in the second half is estimated to be between 4.1% and 6.7%, comparable to the first half's 4.5%[10] - The adjusted fiscal expenditure growth aligns with the economic growth target of approximately 4.7% to 4.8% for the second half[10] - The analysis suggests that the actual economic support from fiscal measures may not be significantly lower than in the first half[10] Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - Tax revenue from the manufacturing sector, including railways and aerospace, saw significant monthly growth rates of over 33%, 10%, and 8% respectively[18] - Social welfare expenditures contributed 3.5 percentage points to the expenditure growth in July, while infrastructure spending had a negative impact of 0.7 percentage points[33] - Government fund income growth slowed to 8.9% in July, primarily due to a decrease in land sale revenue growth to 7.2%[45]

Group 1 - In July, national general public budget revenue showed a significant recovery, with a year-on-year growth of 2.6%, marking the highest monthly growth rate of the year [1] - For the first seven months, the total general public budget revenue reached 135,839 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.1%, indicating a positive turnaround compared to the previous period [1] - Tax revenue in July increased by 5%, the highest growth rate of the year, contributing to a significant narrowing of the revenue decline in the first seven months [2] Group 2 - The corporate income tax decreased by 0.4% in the first seven months, but the decline was significantly narrowed by 1.5 percentage points compared to the first half of the year, which was a key factor in the growth of tax revenue in July [2] - The growth in tax revenue in July was supported by a narrowing decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI), highlighting the strong correlation between price factors and tax revenue [2] - The securities transaction stamp duty saw a remarkable year-on-year growth of 62.5% in the first seven months, reflecting a recovery in market confidence [2] Group 3 - The equipment manufacturing and modern service industries showed strong tax revenue performance, with specific sectors like railway, shipbuilding, and aerospace equipment seeing tax revenue growth of 33% [3] - General public budget expenditure for the first seven months reached 160,737 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, maintaining a focus on social welfare spending [3] - Expenditure in social security and employment grew by 9.8%, indicating a continued emphasis on improving public welfare [3] Group 4 - Local government special bonds and other financial instruments contributed to a government fund budget expenditure growth of 31.7% in the first seven months, amounting to 2.89 trillion yuan [4] - With the reduction of disruptions from extreme weather, infrastructure investment growth is expected to rebound in the second half of the year due to sufficient project and funding support [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance reported that from January to July, the national general public budget revenue reached 13.58 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, marking the first positive growth in revenue this year [1] Revenue Breakdown - Tax revenue for the same period was 11.09 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue was 2.49 trillion yuan, an increase of 2% [1] - The domestic value-added tax generated approximately 4.26 trillion yuan, up 3% year-on-year, indicating stable growth in industrial and service sectors [2] - Corporate income tax revenue was about 3.06 trillion yuan, down 0.4%, reflecting pressure on corporate profits [2] - Import goods value-added tax and consumption tax totaled 1.03 trillion yuan, down 6.1%, consistent with weak import trends [2] - Personal income tax revenue reached 927.9 billion yuan, up 8.8%, attributed to stable growth in resident income and improved tax administration [2] Monthly Trends - From April onwards, monthly tax revenue has shown continuous positive growth for four consecutive months, with July seeing a significant increase of 5% [4][6] - The cumulative decline in tax revenue narrowed significantly, with the year-on-year decline for the first seven months reducing from -1.2% in the first half to -0.3% [6] Sector Performance - Key sectors such as equipment manufacturing and modern services showed good tax revenue performance, with specific growth rates of 33% for railway, shipbuilding, and aerospace equipment, and 12.7% for scientific research and technical services [6] Government Expenditure - General public budget expenditure for the first seven months was 16.07 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, with significant growth in social security and employment spending by 9.8% [10] - The total government expenditure, including special bonds, showed a strong increase of 31.7% [10] - The broad fiscal expenditure, combining general public budget and government fund budget, grew by 8.9% compared to the same period last year, indicating robust fiscal support for economic growth [10]

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of public finance in the first half of 2025 is stable, with a slight decline in revenue growth, indicating the need for continued improvement in tax and government fund income through PPI and land market enhancements [5][23]. Group 1: Public Finance Revenue - In the first half of 2025, public finance revenue showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of 0.3%, slightly lower than the previous year's growth of 1.3% [1][6]. - Tax revenue decreased by 1.2% year-on-year, an improvement compared to last year's decline of 3.4%, while non-tax revenue growth significantly slowed from 25.4% last year to 3.7% this year [1][8]. - The decline in non-tax revenue is attributed to a high base last year and a reduced reliance on non-tax income by the government [1][6]. Group 2: Monthly Performance - In June, tax revenue increased by 1.0% year-on-year, slightly higher than the previous value, while non-tax revenue fell by 3.7%, indicating an expanded decline [2][9]. - Domestic value-added tax and corporate income tax recorded year-on-year increases of 5.0% and 2.7%, respectively, contributing positively to June's fiscal revenue growth [2][11]. - The equipment manufacturing industry, modern services, and cultural sports entertainment sectors showed strong tax performance, reflecting the economic recovery in these areas [2][11]. Group 3: Fiscal Expenditure - Narrow fiscal expenditure in June saw a year-on-year decline of 0.4%, down from 2.6% previously, influenced by a decrease in non-tax revenue and a lull in infrastructure funding [3][12]. - Technology spending led the expenditure categories with an 18.1% year-on-year increase, while infrastructure-related expenditures showed weak performance, particularly in transportation and agriculture [3][14]. - The overall expenditure progress for the first half of the year was at 47.6%, indicating a slower pace compared to previous years, with expectations for acceleration in the second half [3][13]. Group 4: Government Fund Income - Government fund income in the first half of 2025 decreased by 2.4% year-on-year, primarily due to continued weakness in the land market, with land transfer income down 6.5% [4][19]. - In June, government fund budget revenue surged by 20.8%, marking a significant increase, although July data showed a notable decline, raising questions about the sustainability of this recovery [4][19]. - Government fund budget expenditure rose sharply by 79.2% year-on-year, largely driven by the issuance of special bonds, indicating a significant increase in overall fiscal spending [4][20].

Group 1 - In the first half of the year, the securities transaction stamp duty increased by 54.1% year-on-year, while corporate income tax decreased by 1.9%, personal income tax increased by 8%, domestic consumption tax increased by 1.7%, vehicle purchase tax decreased by 19.1%, and tariffs decreased by 7.7% [2] - The national government fund budget revenue for the first half of the year was 1.9442 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.4%. The income from the transfer of state-owned land use rights was 1.4271 trillion yuan, down 6.5% year-on-year [2] - From April, monthly tax revenue has shown year-on-year growth, with April increasing by 1.9%, May by 0.6%, and June by 1% [2] Group 2 - Non-tax revenue growth has slowed, with declines of 2.2% and 3.7% in May and June respectively. Revenue from the paid use of state resources increased by 4.8%, while administrative fees grew by 1% [3] - The Ministry of Finance has implemented a more proactive fiscal policy, focusing on boosting consumption and stabilizing employment and the economy. In the first half of the year, central government transfers to local governments reached 9.29 trillion yuan, accounting for 89.8% of the annual budget [3] - A total of 2.6 trillion yuan in new local government bonds were issued in the first half of the year to support major projects [3] Group 3 - The Ministry of Finance has increased efforts to ensure basic livelihoods and introduced new measures to boost consumption, including childcare subsidies and gradually implementing free preschool education [4] - Two batches of long-term special bond funds totaling 162 billion yuan were allocated for the replacement of old consumer goods [4] - A pilot project for providing consumption subsidies to elderly individuals with moderate to severe disabilities has been initiated to alleviate their care costs [4]