港股市场回购统计周报 2025.11.17-2025.11.23 | 分析师： | 蒋开来 | | --- | --- | | 中央编号： | BWL381 | | 联系电话： | 852-6430 1060 | | 邮箱： | jiangkl@cnzsqh.hk | 1 目录 2 港股市场回购周统计数据 上市公司回购的意义与作用 港股市场回购周统计数据 3 港股市场回购周统计数据（2025.11.17-2025.11.23） 周回购数据总汇 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 期间回购金额 | 期间回购数量 | 回购数量占 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (万港元) | (万股) | 总股本比例 | | 0700. HK | 腾讯控股 | 254. 295. 68 | 409.90 | 0. 04% | | 1810. HK | 小米集团-W | 81, 110. 90 | 2, 150. 00 | 0. 08% | | 9987. HK | 百胜中国 | 23. 392. 72 | 62.95 | 0. 17% | | 1919. HK | 中远海控 | 20, ...

Group 1: Overseas Fundamental Contradictions: Investment vs. Consumption, Power vs. Computing Power - Current concerns in overseas markets focus on two main aspects: doubts about the value of AI investments and the disparity between AI-related investments and actual returns [3][4][22] - The recent divergence between U.S. consumer stocks and the S&P 500 reflects market fears of an economic recession, indicating a K-shaped recovery where low-end consumption is weakening [4][24] - The AI industry is driving investment resilience in the U.S., with AI-related investments contributing approximately 1.4 percentage points to GDP growth, surpassing the contribution from private consumption [4][24][29] Group 2: Domestic Demand: A Stabilizing Factor in the Portfolio - Domestic economic data shows weak total consumption, but structural improvements are emerging, particularly in "non-subsidized" sectors, which are showing marginal improvements [5][42] - Two potential scenarios for future domestic demand: one where exporters convert foreign exchange earnings into RMB assets, supporting domestic consumption; the other where financial capital returns in response to global economic risks, enhancing domestic demand resilience [5][47][48] - Key sectors benefiting from domestic demand recovery include food and beverage, textiles, and jewelry, which are showing signs of improvement [5][45][46] Group 3: Style Rebalancing in the Context of U.S.-China Mirror Period - The U.S. economy is transitioning to a "strong investment, weak consumption" model, similar to China's experience from 2022 to 2024, highlighting the importance of power-related assets as a key investment theme [6][56] - Recommendations include focusing on undervalued cyclical assets in the consumer sector, particularly textiles and apparel, which are experiencing improved demand dynamics [6][58] - The ongoing recovery in domestic consumption and the potential return of capital flows are expected to provide continued investment value in domestic assets [6][59]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a downward trend from November 10 to November 14, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3990.49 points, a slight decline of 0.18% for the week [2] - Growth sectors faced significant pullbacks, with the ChiNext and STAR Market indices dropping over 5%, indicating pressure on high-valuation sectors [2] - Structural differentiation continued, with the CSI Dividend Index rising 0.25%, showcasing the resilience of value styles, while the Wind Micro-Cap Index surged 4.11%, becoming one of the few market highlights [2] Industry Performance - The average performance of Wind's primary industry indices increased by 0.48%, with over half of the sectors achieving positive returns [9] - The healthcare sector rose by 3.27%, consumer staples by 2.72%, and real estate by 2.62%, marking the strongest performances [9] - Conversely, the information technology sector fell by 4.27%, industrials by 1.28%, and telecommunications services by 1.09%, indicating significant pressure on technology and manufacturing sectors [9] Fund Issuance - A total of 24 funds were issued last week, including 14 equity funds, 4 mixed funds, 2 bond funds, and 4 fund of funds (FOFs), with a total issuance of 14.173 billion units [13] Fund Performance - The Wind All-Fund Index decreased by 0.37% last week, with the ordinary equity fund index down by 0.40% and the mixed equity fund index down by 0.71% [3] - The bond fund index saw a slight increase of 0.06%, indicating a mixed performance across different fund types [3] Global Market Context - Global equity markets showed a mixed performance, with the US market stable and the Dow Jones rising by 0.34%, while European markets performed strongly, with France's CAC40 up by 2.77% and Germany's DAX up by 1.30% [4] - In the commodity market, natural gas rose by 4.47%, silver by 4.69%, and gold by 1.86%, while coking coal plummeted by 6.77% [4] - The US dollar index weakened amid strong expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, which diminished the dollar's attractiveness [4]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a phase of oscillation and upward trend, with a shift towards dividend stocks and sectors with strong price increase certainty, such as non-ferrous metals, supported by recent US-China trade negotiations [2] Industry Performance Summary 1) Energy and Basic Materials - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut has led to a continued rise in gold and industrial metal prices, with coal prices rebounding due to increased demand for the heating season and production cuts. In October, prices for thermal coal, coking coal, coking, and iron ore rose by 10%, 14%, 10%, and 3% respectively [3][10] - Coal production has seen a year-on-year decline of 3.2% in September, maintaining negative growth for three consecutive months, while coal inventory remains historically high at 710 million tons [10] 2) Industrial Products - The energy transition is supporting demand for electrical equipment, with steady growth in the photovoltaic industry. In September, excavator domestic sales grew by 22% year-on-year, and new energy vehicle sales increased by 25% [4] - The price increase pace in the photovoltaic supply chain has slowed, with polysilicon and solar cell prices decreasing by 0.6% and 3% month-on-month [4] 3) Consumer Goods - Domestic demand for home appliances continues to slow, with September sales for washing machines, refrigerators, and air conditioners down by 16%, 26%, and 21% year-on-year respectively. The liquor industry is in a supply clearing phase, with the wholesale price of Feitian Moutai down by 6% year-on-year [5] - The food sector shows mixed performance, with prices for pork, chicken, and eggs declining, while vegetable prices have risen [5] 4) Technology - The AI industry chain is experiencing high prosperity, with strong overseas demand for AI computing driving sales of Chinese communication equipment. The net profit growth rates for software and services, computer equipment, communication equipment, and semiconductors reached 161%, 45%, 25%, and 33% respectively [6] - The gaming sector remains robust, with 166 game licenses issued in October, maintaining a high level [6] 5) Financials - The banking sector's high dividend attributes are attracting medium to long-term capital allocation, with insurance premiums growing by 9% year-on-year in September. The average daily trading volume of A-shares has slightly decreased to 2.2 trillion yuan [6] - The stock market sentiment remains high, with a significant increase in margin trading balances reaching a historical high of approximately 2.5 trillion yuan [6] 6) Real Estate - The real estate market is still in a bottoming phase, with October sales area in 30 major cities down by 27% year-on-year. The price index for new and second-hand residential properties has decreased by 2.7% and 5.2% respectively [7] - The industry is under pressure, with a focus on policy support and demand improvement [7] Investment Recommendations - Focus on sectors such as AI computing, communication equipment, semiconductors, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which are expected to remain attractive until a significant change in industry prosperity occurs [7] - Non-ferrous metals are likely to benefit from the global monetary order reconstruction, while export growth remains strong, enhancing profit margins for companies in engineering machinery, electrical equipment, and white goods [7]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market in October showed a mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.85%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 1.1% and 1.56% respectively. Brokerages suggest a balanced allocation strategy to navigate short-term volatility [1] Group 1: Stock Recommendations - Multiple brokerages have released their investment portfolios for November, covering sectors such as materials, information technology, and consumer goods [1] - Notable stocks recommended by various brokerages include Huadian Technology, Industrial Fulian, Yun Aluminum, and others, with some stocks receiving multiple recommendations [2][4] - Among the stocks, Zhongji Xuchuang had the highest increase in October, rising over 17%, while Top Group experienced the largest decline, dropping over 8.9% [4] Group 2: Industry Preferences - Brokerages recommend focusing on sectors such as non-ferrous metals, brokerage firms, and pharmaceuticals, anticipating increased market volatility [6] - Suggestions include prioritizing low-volatility assets and considering investments in sectors like coal, telecommunications, and electricity, which are seen as having dividend attributes [6] - East China Securities highlights three main investment lines: technology, strategic emerging industries, and opportunities arising from increased investment expectations in the fourth quarter [7]

Core Viewpoint - Zhang Kun, a prominent fund manager at E Fund, has disclosed the top ten holdings of four funds as of Q3 2025, indicating a strategic shift in investment focus towards consumer and technology sectors, while also reflecting on the long-term growth potential of China's consumption market [1][9]. Fund Holdings Summary - The combined top ten holdings of Zhang Kun's four funds include Tencent Holdings, Alibaba-W, Kweichow Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, Wuliangye, JD Health, Yum China, CNOOC, and Focus Media [1]. - The total market value of the top holdings is as follows: - Tencent Holdings: 56.18 billion - Alibaba-W: 56.16 billion - Kweichow Moutai: 51.36 billion - Luzhou Laojiao: 51.13 billion - Shanxi Fenjiu: 50.69 billion - Wuliangye: 50.64 billion - JD Health: 45.02 billion - Yum China: 28.69 billion - CNOOC: 27.60 billion - Focus Media: 26.44 billion [2]. Changes in Holdings - Compared to Q2 2025, the only change in the top ten holdings was the exit of SF Express, replaced by Focus Media [2]. - In Q3, Zhang Kun reduced his holdings in Tencent and Alibaba by 2.465 million shares and 17.392 million shares, respectively, likely due to price increases of 31% and 61% during the quarter [5]. - In the liquor sector, there was an increase in Kweichow Moutai by 48,100 shares, while reductions were made in Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye [6]. Sector Analysis - In the consumer sector, there were reductions in Luzhou Laojiao and Shanxi Fenjiu, but increases in Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, indicating a positive outlook on premium liquor [7]. - The new investments in Yum China and Focus Media reflect expectations of recovery in the restaurant and advertising sectors [7]. - In the technology sector, there were reductions in Tencent and Alibaba across all funds, while new positions were taken in Google-A and reductions in ASML and TSMC, indicating a shift towards more globally competitive tech giants [8]. Long-term Outlook - The team believes that China's consumption growth is likely to outpace GDP growth, supported by a low consumer spending ratio relative to GDP compared to other major economies [9]. - The potential for a unified market of 1.4 billion people offers significant scale advantages for product development and sales [9]. - The current low valuation levels provide a safety margin for investments in the domestic consumption market, which is expected to remain fertile ground for long-term investment [9].

Core Viewpoint - Zhang Kun, a prominent fund manager at E Fund, has demonstrated strong performance across his managed funds, focusing on domestic consumption and technology sectors while adjusting his portfolio in response to market conditions [1][2][14]. Fund Performance - As of September 30, 2025, all four funds managed by Zhang Kun outperformed their respective benchmarks, with a total managed scale of approximately 56.544 billion yuan [1]. - The E Fund Blue Chip Select Fund reported a net asset value of 36.413 billion yuan, with a net value growth rate of 16.37%, surpassing the benchmark return of 13.25% [3][8]. - The E Fund Quality Select Fund achieved a net value growth rate of 17.58%, outperforming its benchmark of 13.57% [8]. Portfolio Adjustments - In Q3 2025, Zhang Kun increased his focus on domestic consumption, adding positions in companies like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, while reducing holdings in JD Health and other stocks [4][5]. - The E Fund Blue Chip Select Fund saw a significant net redemption of 2.078 billion shares, marking the second-highest redemption record since its inception [3]. - The E Fund Quality Select Fund saw changes in its top ten holdings, with notable increases in Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, while JD Health and other stocks were reduced [7][9]. Sector Focus - Zhang Kun emphasized the potential of China's domestic consumption market, predicting that the growth rate of Chinese consumption will exceed both GDP growth and global GDP growth in the long term [2][14][15]. - The portfolio adjustments reflect a strategic shift towards sectors with sustained growth potential, particularly in consumer goods and technology [14][16]. Geographic Allocation - There has been an increase in holdings in Hong Kong, Taiwan, and the U.S., while exposure to South Korean stocks has significantly decreased [2][12]. - The E Fund Asia Select Fund, the smallest among Zhang Kun's managed funds, has seen a rise in its holdings in major markets, with Google entering its top ten holdings for the first time [12][13]. Investment Philosophy - Zhang Kun maintains a long-term investment philosophy, focusing on companies with strong business models and competitive advantages, despite short-term market volatility [14][15][16]. - He believes that the current low valuation levels in the market provide a significant margin of safety for long-term investments in quality companies [16].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a collective adjustment in the morning session, with the major indices showing declines. The CSI 500 Index fell by 0.7%, the CSI 300 Index also decreased by 0.7%, the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.9%, and the STAR Market 50 Index declined by 1.1% [1] - The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong showed weakness, with declines in the non-ferrous metals and consumer staples sectors, resulting in a 1.4% drop in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index [1] Index Performance - The CSI 300 Index, which consists of 300 large-cap stocks from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, had a rolling P/E ratio of 14.4 times and fell by 0.7% [3] - The CSI 500 Index, covering 500 stocks with good liquidity, had a rolling P/E ratio of 16.9 times and also decreased by 0.7% [3] - The ChiNext Index, which includes 100 large-cap stocks in the ChiNext market, had a rolling P/E ratio of 41.9 times and fell by 0.9% [3] - The STAR Market 50 Index, focusing on large-cap stocks in the STAR Market, had a rolling P/E ratio of 176.0 times and declined by 1.1% [4] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, which tracks 50 large-cap Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong, had a rolling P/E ratio of 10.8 times and decreased by 1.4% [4]

Core Points - The Jiangxi Provincial Federation of Trade Unions has allocated 50 million yuan to stimulate consumer spending among workers from late October to mid-December 2025 [2][4] - The initiative focuses on two main areas: daily consumer goods and cultural tourism, aiming to benefit workers and share development outcomes [2] Group 1: Funding Allocation - 30 million yuan is designated for promoting general consumer spending among workers, while 20 million yuan is specifically for cultural tourism consumption [2] - Of the 30 million yuan for general consumption, 29 million yuan will be distributed to various municipal trade unions to cover a wider range of consumption scenarios [2] - The remaining 1 million yuan will be used for issuing consumption vouchers through the "Jiangxi Workers' Benefits" platform [2] Group 2: Cultural Tourism Support - The program will subsidize 50,000 enterprise workers to participate in the "Jia You Gan" cultural tourism activities, with at least 80% of participants being frontline workers from non-public enterprises and new employment forms [2]

- The Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme Index is constructed using the Paasche weighted method and is calculated daily on a chained basis[3][11][39] - The index selects stocks from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange that meet specific criteria, such as being involved in consumer-related industries (e.g., apparel, jewelry, home appliances, food and beverages) and having mutual market access qualifications[43] - The index excludes stocks with abnormal price fluctuations, significant financial issues, or major operational problems in the past year[43] - The index selects the top 50 stocks based on the highest average daily market capitalization over the past year, after removing the bottom 10% in terms of average daily trading volume[43] - The Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme Index has a cumulative return of 24.22% since its base date (December 31, 2014) as of September 16, 2025, outperforming the Hang Seng Equal Weight Index (-7.82%) and the Hang Seng Index (12.00%)[71] - The index's PE (TTM) ratio is 19.30 as of September 16, 2025, which is lower than 80.88% of the time since its launch on April 11, 2022, indicating a relatively undervalued state[75][77]