证券研究报告 | 2025年7月13日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 ➢ 根据马拉松资本《资本回报：穿越资本周期的投资》的观点，资本周期方法的关键是要理解一个行业内配置的资本数 量的变动将如何影响未来回报，换句话说，也就是观察供给方面的变化如何影响公司的竞争态势。传统价值/成长的二 分法存在问题。表现超过市场预期的公司有理由获得更高的估值。相比于分析供给，大部分投资者在分析需求上花更 多时间，但预测需求比预测供给更难。供给变动驱动行业盈利性，股价常常未能预见供给侧的变动。 ➢ 在企业生命周期的不同状态下，行业集中度呈现倒U型分布，先经历了供给侧的优化和高度竞争后的出清，随后集中度 走高形成垄断寡头格局，盈利也经历了类似的对称性分布。分红方面，随着企业从复苏期-增长期-竞争期-成熟期的演 化，股息率中枢不断走高。 ➢ 按照相对回报和绝对回报在历史 8 个阶段回报定位，根据一季报数据筛选得出的优势阶段行业和重点观察行业，按照 开支-盈利水平按照三季报的指引来定位，则可以发现行业集中度呈现 U 型分布。当前处于推荐阶段的二级行业有养殖 业、动物保健Ⅱ、元件、消费电子、通信服务、广告营销、电视广播Ⅱ、 ...

周五，能源业ETF收涨0.45%，可选消费ETF收涨0.03%。全球航空业ETF收跌2.26%。生物科技指数ETF 收跌1.54%，区域银行ETF收跌1.07%，金融业ETF、银行业ETF收跌1.04%。 | 能源业ETF - ... | 89.13 | +0.40 (+0.45%) | 1508.41万股 | 223.20亿 | +5.72% | 그 … | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | us XLE | 89.29 | +0.16 (+0.18%) 盘后 | | | | | | 可选消费ET ... | 221.43 | +0.06 (+0.03%) | 334.52万股 | 278.12亿 | -0.82% | = == | | us XLY | 221.02 | -0.41 (-0.19%) 盘后 | | | | | | 半导体ETF - ... | 287.49 | -0.03 (-0.01%) | 567.59万股 | 33.98亿 +18.71% | | = == | | us SMH | 287.26 | -0.23 (-0.08% ...

Market Overview - Major industry ETFs in the US stock market experienced an overall increase, with the biotechnology index ETF rising over 2%, and the semiconductor ETF increasing by more than 1% [1] Biotechnology Sector - The biotechnology index ETF is priced at 132.10, reflecting an increase of 2.77 (+2.14%) with a trading volume of 63,515 shares and a total market value of 10.489 billion [2] Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor ETF is currently priced at 286.79, showing an increase of 3.31 (+1.17%) with a trading volume of 314,300 shares and a total market value of 33.90 billion, which is up 18.42% year-to-date [2] Global Technology Sector - The global technology stock index ETF is priced at 93.68, with an increase of 0.76 (+0.82%) and a trading volume of 5,242 shares, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 10.75% with a total market value of 1.312 billion [2] Airline Industry - The global airline industry ETF is priced at 24.13, with an increase of 0.19 (+0.79%) and a trading volume of 19,832 shares, but it has a total market value of 76.095 million, down 4.81% year-to-date [2] Healthcare Sector - The healthcare ETF is priced at 135.87, showing an increase of 0.90 (+0.67%) with a trading volume of 447,400 shares and a total market value of 26.001 billion, down 0.38% year-to-date [2] Technology Industry - The technology sector ETF is priced at 257.92, with an increase of 1.63 (+0.64%) and a trading volume of 158,900 shares, reflecting a total market value of 82.034 billion, up 11.30% year-to-date [2] Regional Banks - The regional bank ETF is priced at 63.48, showing an increase of 0.33 (+0.53%) with a trading volume of 353,000 shares and a total market value of 5.298 billion, up 6.62% year-to-date [2] Banking Sector - The banking ETF is priced at 58.74, with an increase of 0.28 (+0.48%) and a trading volume of 31,939 shares, reflecting a total market value of 4.547 billion, up 7.38% year-to-date [2] Consumer Discretionary - The consumer discretionary ETF is priced at 218.65, showing an increase of 0.99 (+0.45%) with a trading volume of 61,987 shares and a total market value of 27.463 billion, down 2.06% year-to-date [2] Financial Sector - The financial sector ETF is priced at 52.38, with an increase of 0.17 (+0.33%) and a trading volume of 1.314 million shares, reflecting a total market value of 58.301 billion, up 9.15% year-to-date [2] Utility Sector - The utility ETF is priced at 81.24, showing an increase of 0.10 (+0.12%) with a trading volume of 557,800 shares and a total market value of 11.794 billion, up 8.85% year-to-date [2] Energy Sector - The energy ETF is priced at 88.25, with a decrease of 0.26 (-0.29%) and a trading volume of 815,100 shares, reflecting a total market value of 22.100 billion, up 4.67% year-to-date [2]

美股盘初，主要行业ETF多数下跌，可选消费ETF跌超1%，半导体ETF跌近1%，生物科技指数ETF跌 0.7%。 | 日选股票 | 自选基金 自选组合 | | | | | 0 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 行业类 V | 当前价 ◆ | 涨跌幅 * | 成交量 ÷ | 总市值 = 年初至今 = | | 0 | | 可选消费ET ... | 218.19 | 1 -3.02 (-1.37%) | 11.50万股 | 274.05亿 | -2.27% | " " | | US XLY | | | | | | | | 半导体ETF --- | 281.22 | ↑ -2.40 (-0.85%) | 22.99万股 | 33.24亿 +16.13% | | == | | us SMH | | | | | | | | 生物科技指 ... | 129.11 | -0.89 (-0.68%) | 22713股 | 102.51亿 | -2.26% | = == | | us IBB | | | | | | | | 能源业ETF - ... | 86.56 | ...

中证转债日K线图 中证转债指数创十年新高 机构提示关注半年报绩优标的 ◎记者 孙忠 今年以来可转债市场表现稳健。数据显示，中证转债指数今年以来已取得7.94%的涨幅，表现优于主要 宽基指数。上周市场热度较高，明星品种较多。其中，惠城转债大涨21%，成为市场中价格突破2000元 的龙头品种。 可转债作为"下有保底，上不封顶"的优质资产，为投资者贡献了稳定的回报。随着A股震荡走强，可转 债转股价格下修和提前赎回的条款博弈也让市场更具看点。市场人士认为，今年以来，A股市场整体活 跃，银行和其他主题板块亮点纷呈，同时并购重组活跃也推动了可转债市场稳步上行。展望未来，需要 关注优质半年度绩优标的。 指数创下10年新高 今年以来中证转债指数虽有震荡但整体稳健，近期连续多日刷新了2015年后的市场高点。 截至7月4日，中证转债指数收报447.46点，盘中最高至449.36点，年涨幅高达7.94%，跑赢市场主要宽 基指数。 年初可转债市场曾处于调整状态，但很快步入上行通道；3月中旬后，市场再度深幅调整，并跌至年初 低点。此后中证转债指数单边走强。 "本质上是资产的优势。"迎水投资合伙人陈远芳认为，作为攻守兼备的投资品种，可转 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 出品：新浪财经上市公司研究院 作者：喜乐 2025年上半年，港股IPO市场以"冰火两重天"的极端分化态势迎来近四年最强复苏：42家企业登陆港交所，合计募资1067亿港元，较2024年上半年同比增长 688%，且已超过2022-2024年分别的全年水平；平均每单项目募资额约25.4亿港元，也超过了2022-2024年的平均募资水平。这场复苏的核心驱动力来自两大 极端：A to H大盘股以770亿港元募资撑起总量72%，成为"定海神针"；可选消费与创新药则在散户打新狂欢中上演"千百倍认购神话"；然而繁华背后，工 业、金融等传统板块募资遇冷，折射出市场对"新经济"的狂热追捧与"旧经济"的谨慎观望。 | 序号 | 名称 | 上市日期 | 行业 | 337 | 画年空合规律 | 友行价 | НКРО | 机构 | 省纪念日报 | 至今张跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | (亿港元) | 施元/設) | 认购倍数 | ...

美股盘初，主要行业ETF普涨，区域银行业ETF涨1.59%，全球航空业ETF涨1.51%，银行业ETF涨 1.27%。 | 前代時 | 自选基金 自选组合 | | | | | 10 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 行业类 V | 当前价 ◆ | 涨跌幅 ◆ | 成交量 ÷ | 总市值 ; 年初至今 ; | | 0 | | 区域银行ET ... | 63.51 | +0.99 (+1.59%) | 388.36万股 | 53.00亿 | +6.66% | = " | | us KRE | | | | | | | | 全球航空业E ... | 24.15 | +0.36 (+1.51%) | 29.62万股 | 7607.25万 | -4.73% | n ... | | US JETS | | | | | | | | 银行业ETF - ... | 59.00 | +0.74 (+1.27%) | 18.86万股 | 45.67 亿 | +7.86% | ( ) ... | | us KBE | | | | | | | | 科技行业ET ... | 2 ...

01 大盘 昨夜美股三大股指分化。道指跌 0.02%，纳指涨 0.94%，标普涨 0.47%。恐慌指数VIX跌1.13%至 16.64。美元指数昨日涨 0.14%，报96.78。美国十年国债收益率涨0.848%，收报4.281%，相较两年期国 债收益率差49.4个基点。现货黄金昨日涨0.54%，报3356.93美元/盎司。布伦特原油收涨2.83%至69.12。 02 行业&个股 行业板块方面，除医疗、公用事业和通讯分别收跌0.99%、0.87%和0.29%外，标普其他7大板块悉数收 涨：半导体、能源、原料、科技、日常消费、房地产和工业分别收涨1.9%、1.72%、1.5%、1.06%、 0.29%、0.19%和0.1%。 7.2 美国总统特朗普和美国富豪马斯克关系再度恶化之际，马斯克周三(7月2日)在社交平台X上发帖文， 称赞特朗普在解决地区冲突中发挥的作用。 特朗普稍早在社交平台上表示，美国和以色列就加沙局势进行长时间会谈，以色列已同意与哈马斯达成 60日停火协议的必要条件，呼吁哈马斯也接受协议。 马斯克其后在X平台上分享特朗普这一帖文截图并配文称，"该称赞的还是要称赞"，特朗普成功解决了 全球多宗重大冲突 ...

Market Overview - Major industry ETFs in the US experienced a decline, with the global airline industry ETF down by 0.9%, the healthcare ETF down by 0.72%, and the utilities ETF down by 0.67% [1] Industry Performance - The global airline industry ETF is priced at $23.22, reflecting a decrease of $0.21 or 0.90% with a trading volume of 43,489 shares and a total market value of $73.14 million, showing an 8.40% decline year-to-date [2] - The healthcare ETF is priced at $135.73, down by $0.98 or 0.72%, with a trading volume of 676,100 shares and a total market value of $259.74 billion, indicating a year-to-date decrease of 0.48% [2] - The utilities ETF is priced at $81.39, down by $0.55 or 0.67%, with a trading volume of 942,700 shares and a total market value of $11.81 billion, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 9.05% [2] - The financial sector ETF is priced at $52.48, down by $0.18 or 0.34%, with a trading volume of 2.23 million shares and a total market value of $584.13 billion, showing a year-to-date increase of 9.35% [2] - The technology sector ETF is priced at $250.50, down by $0.47 or 0.19%, with a trading volume of 254,600 shares and a total market value of $796.73 billion, indicating a year-to-date increase of 8.10% [2] - The energy sector ETF is priced at $85.78, up by $0.32 or 0.37%, with a trading volume of 1.09 million shares and a total market value of $21.48 billion, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 1.74% [2]

Market Overview - Major industry ETFs mostly declined, with the Consumer Discretionary ETF down approximately 1%, the Biotechnology Index ETF down 0.55%, and the Energy ETF down 0.5% [1] Industry Performance - Consumer Discretionary ETF (US XLY) current price: $215.37, down $1.96 (-0.90%), with a trading volume of 86,452 shares and a total market value of $27.051 billion, down 3.53% year-to-date [2] - Biotechnology Index ETF (US IBB) current price: $125.81, down $0.70 (-0.55%), with a trading volume of 54,019 shares and a total market value of $9.989 billion, down 4.76% year-to-date [2] - Energy ETF (US XLE) current price: $84.39, down $0.42 (-0.50%), with a trading volume of 1.0193 million shares and a total market value of $21.133 billion, up 0.09% year-to-date [2] - Semiconductor ETF (US SMH) current price: $277.65, down $1.23 (-0.44%), with a trading volume of 248,700 shares and a total market value of $3.282 billion, up 14.65% year-to-date [2] - Internet Index ETF (US FDN) current price: $268.48, down $0.85 (-0.31%), with a trading volume of 2,192 shares and a total market value of $17.827 billion, up 10.41% year-to-date [2] - Global Technology ETF (US IXN) current price: $92.09, down $0.25 (-0.27%), with a trading volume of 3,645 shares and a total market value of $1.289 billion, up 8.87% year-to-date [2] - Banking ETF (US KBE) current price: $55.67, down $0.09 (-0.16%), with a trading volume of 32,613 shares and a total market value of $4.309 billion, up 1.77% year-to-date [2] - Technology Sector ETF (US XLK) current price: $252.89, down $0.34 (-0.13%), with a trading volume of 158,800 shares and a total market value of $804.33 billion, up 9.13% year-to-date [2] - Healthcare ETF (US XLV) current price: $134.61, down $0.18 (-0.13%), with a trading volume of 326,900 shares and a total market value of $25.760 billion, down 1.30% year-to-date [2] - Financials ETF (US XLF) current price: $52.31, down $0.06 (-0.11%), with a trading volume of 890,000 shares and a total market value of $58.223 billion, up 9.00% year-to-date [2] - Global Airlines ETF (US JETS) current price: $22.95, down $0.02 (-0.09%), with a trading volume of 42,334 shares and a total market value of $72.293 million, down 9.47% year-to-date [2] - Utilities ETF (US XLU) current price: $81.60, down $0.06 (-0.07%), with a trading volume of 595,900 shares and a total market value of $11.846 billion, up 9.33% year-to-date [2] - Regional Banks ETF (US KRE) current price: $59.42, up $0.03 (+0.05%), with a trading volume of 263,600 shares and a total market value of $4.959 billion, down 0.20% year-to-date [2] - Consumer Staples ETF (US XLP) current price: $81.33, up $0.36 (+0.44%), with a trading volume of 459,700 shares and a total market value of $137.63 million [2]