| | 操作评级 | 2026年01月09日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 肖静 首席分析师 | | 铜 | 女女女 | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 铝 | ななな | | | | | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 氧化铝 | 女女女 | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 铸造铝合金 文文文 | | | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | 锌 | ★☆☆ | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 能 | な女女 | | | | | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 镇及不锈钢 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 锡 | ☆☆☆ | | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 碳酸锂 | ななな | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 工业培 | ななな | | | 多晶硅 | 女女女 | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 沪铜减仓震荡、盘中收复跌势。市场关注美国高法对特朗普对等关税的裁决，不过涉铜多走行业关税，影响有 限。晚间关注 ...

| | 操作评级 | 2026年01月08日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | | 肖静 首席分析师 | | | ななな | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 铝 | な女女 | | | 氧化铝 | ななな | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | | | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 铸造铝合金 文文文 | | | | 锌 | ★☆☆ | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 铝 | ★☆☆ | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 镇及不锈钢 立☆☆ | | | | | | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 锡 | な☆☆ | | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 碳酸锂 | なな女 | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 工业硅 | ☆☆☆ | | | 多晶硅 | 女女女 | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 周四沪铜增仓、主力换月至2603合约。今日上海铜贴水扩至125元,SMM社库周内增加1.96万吨至27.38万吨。前 期260 ...

有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 期货研究报告 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 8 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 日内有色回落，午后跌势加剧 核心观点 沪铜 今日铜价震荡走弱，午后跳水，一度跌至 10 万元关口，随后触底 回升。短期内外盘分歧加剧，昨日宏观氛围开始冷却，资金获利了 结意愿上升，而产业弱现实也给予期价压力。今日铜价延续颓势， 短期关注 10 关口多空博弈。 沪铝 今日铝价减仓下行，主力期价跌破 2.4 万关口。短期宏观氛围冷 却，有色普跌。产业端处于弱现实阶段，也给予期价一定压力。技 术上，铝价在 2021 年高点面临压力， ...

氧化铝现货价格：2026-01-07SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2655元/吨，山东价格录得2585元/吨，河南价格录得 2680元/吨，广西价格录得2745元/吨，贵州价格录得2785元/吨，澳洲氧化铝FOB价格录得304美元/吨。 氧化铝期货方面：2026-01-07氧化铝主力合约开于2822元/吨，收于2938元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价变化139 元/吨，变化幅度4.97%，最高价达到2975元/吨，最低价为2822元/吨。全天交易日成交1854026手，全天交易 日持仓494082手。 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-08 价格短期快速上涨抑制消费 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价24140元/吨，较上一交易日变化230元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-200元/ 吨，较上一交易日变化20元/吨；中原A00铝价23930元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化40元/吨至-410元/吨； 佛山A00铝价录24130元/吨，较上一交易日变化270元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化65元/吨至-205元/ 吨。 铝期货方面：2026-01-07日沪铝主力合约开于24280元/吨，收于24360元 ...

20260107申万期货有色金属基差日报 | 品种 | 观点 | | --- | --- | | 铜 | 铜：夜盘铜价收低0.68%。精矿供应延续紧张状态，冶炼利润处于盈亏边缘，冶炼产量虽 环比回落，但总体延续高增长。国家统计局数据显示，电力投资稳定；汽车产销正增长； | | | 家电产量负增长；地产持续疲弱。矿供应扰动导致全球铜供求预期转向缺口，短期铜价更 | | | 多受市场情绪影响。关注美元、铜冶炼产量和下游需求等变化。 | | 锌 | 锌：夜盘锌价收涨0.37%。锌精矿加工费回落，精矿供应阶段性紧张，冶炼产量延续增长 | | | 。中钢协统计的镀锌板库存总体高位。基建投资累计增速趋缓，汽车产销正增长；家电产 | | | 量负增长；地产持续疲弱。锌供求总体差异不明显，但需要关注目前有色整体市场情绪。 | | | 建议关注美元、冶炼产量和下游需求等变化。 | | 品种 | 国内前日期货 收盘价 | 国内基差 （元/吨） | 前日LME3月 期收盘价 | LME现货升贴水 （CASH-3M） | LME库存 （吨） | LME库存日 度变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

数据来源：文华财经 （文华综合） | 電神名 | | 司司行它 | 四十六年 | 型米刷 | ■限定位网 | 四角大的 | 重多日 | #多分 | 100 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 关键词 | 678222 | 59.65% | 162622 | 751867 | 66.13% | 123106 | -13645 | 139516 | 0.9021 | | 坂灣 | 693473 | 52.76% | 122562 | 835375 | 63.56% | 111123 | -141902 | 133682 | 0.8301 | | 螺纹 1289306 59.40% | | | 17697 | 1264222 | 58.24% | 120112 | 25084 | 127809 | 1.0198 | | 细城 | 710993 | 51.80% | 129490 | 844169 | 61.51% | 12705 | -133176 | 126785 | 0.8422 | | 黑保 | 271905 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper price rose 1.28% overnight, hitting a new record high. The supply of concentrate remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss. Although smelting output has declined month - on - month, it continues to grow overall. The supply disruption of copper mines has led to a shift in the global copper supply - demand expectation to a deficit, and the short - term copper price is more affected by market sentiment [2]. - The zinc price rose overnight. The processing fee of zinc concentrate has declined, the supply of concentrate is in a stage of tightness, and smelting output continues to grow. The overall inventory of galvanized sheets is at a high level. The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious, but the overall market sentiment of non - ferrous metals needs to be concerned [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Copper - Price change: The copper price rose 1.28% overnight and hit a new record high [2]. - Supply situation: The supply of concentrate is tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss. Although smelting output has declined month - on - month, it continues to grow overall [2]. - Demand situation: Power investment is stable, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is negative, and the real estate market is weak [2]. - Market expectation: The supply disruption of copper mines has led to a shift in the global copper supply - demand expectation to a deficit, and the short - term copper price is more affected by market sentiment [2]. - Data: The previous domestic futures closing price was 101,190 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 45 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 13,088 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 41.98 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 145,325 tons, and the daily change was - 2,100 tons [2]. Zinc - Price change: The zinc price rose overnight [2]. - Supply situation: The processing fee of zinc concentrate has declined, the supply of concentrate is in a stage of tightness, and smelting output continues to grow [2]. - Demand situation: The overall inventory of galvanized sheets is at a high level. Infrastructure investment growth has slowed down, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is negative, and the real estate market is weak [2]. - Market expectation: The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious, but the overall market sentiment of non - ferrous metals needs to be concerned [2]. - Data: The previous domestic futures closing price was 23,800 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 165 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 3,208 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 36.30 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 106,325 tons, and the daily change was - 1,300 tons [2]. Other Metals - Aluminum: The previous domestic futures closing price was 23,610 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 230 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 3,090 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 27.69 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 509,250 tons, and the daily change was - 2,500 tons [2]. - Nickel: The previous domestic futures closing price was 133,750 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 5,920 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 17,290 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 151.78 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 255,282 tons, and the daily change was 120 tons [2]. - Lead: The previous domestic futures closing price was 17,375 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 75 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,030 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 45.52 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 239,325 tons, and the daily change was - 2,600 tons [2]. - Tin: The previous domestic futures closing price was 334,030 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 7,990 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 42,560 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 30.01 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 5,415 tons, and the daily change was - 5 tons [2].

中辉有色观点 | 中辉有色观点 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | | | | | 委内瑞拉事件影响深远，地缘溢价交易继续，COMEX | 此前交割逻辑再现，流动性风 | 黄金 | 长线持有 | 险偏好尚可。中长期来看，地缘秩序重塑，不确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金， | | | | | | ★★ | 长期战略配置价值不变。 | | | | | | | | | COMEX | 近月合约再现多头交割拿货、黄金情绪高涨，白银大涨，长期来看市场押注 | 白银 | 长期持有 | 降息持续、供需缺口连续 | 5 | 年持续，全球大财政均对白银长期有利，另外资源交易 | | | | ★★ | 也是 | 2026 | 年一大主题，长期做多逻辑不变。关注海外市场调仓风险 | | | | | | | 全球地缘剧变，南美铜资源或成为地缘博弈筹码，加剧全球铜供应扭曲和紊乱，铜 | 铜 | 长线持有 | 隔夜再创历史新高，建议前期多单继续持有，中长期对铜依旧看好。 | ...

期货研究报告 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 5 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 节后铜铝增仓上行 核心观点 沪铜 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 今日沪铜高开高走，持仓量持续上升。宏观层面，节后归来市场 氛围较好，有色普涨。产业层面，现货贴水转为升水，电解铜社库 持续上升。节后铜价再度站上 10 万关口，资金涌入明显，上行动能 较强，关注前期高点压力。 沪铝 今日铝价早盘高开高走，持仓量上升明显，日内涨超 3%。宏观层 面，节后归来市场氛围较好，有色普涨。产业层面，高铝价抑制下 游消费，产业被动跟随，电解铝社库上升明显。近期铝价表现强势 ...

期货研究报告 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 30 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色持续反弹，镍领涨 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 6 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 核心观点 沪铜 昨夜铜价维持颓势，沪铜主力期价跌至 9.6 万关口，今日持续回 升，主力期价尾盘收于 9.8 万关口。临近元旦假期，叠加铜价短期积 累较大涨幅，资金了结意愿较强导致铜价高位跳水。今日国内宏观 氛围回暖，下方承接力量较强，推动铜价持续反弹。产业层面，昨 夜铜价大幅下挫，今 ...