证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 10 08 年 月 日 量化周报 科技板块出现分化 科技板块出现分化。节前（9.29-9.30），大盘震荡上行，上证指数全周收 涨 1.43%。在此背景下，科技板块出现分化，电子、计算机表现相对强势， 而通信、传媒则表现相对弱势。市场的本轮上涨自 4 月 7 日以来，日线级 别反弹已经持续了 5 个多月，反弹幅度也基本在 30%左右，各大指数和 板块的上涨基本都轮动了一遍，超 2/3 的行业日线级别上涨处于超涨状 态，几乎所有的规模指数及一半以上的行业更是走出了复杂的 9-15 浪的 上涨结构，而银行、非银也已经率先形成了日线级别下跌，军工、钢铁、 建筑、交运、医药离确认日线级别下跌的日子也不远了。因此我们认为本 轮日线级别上涨大概率已临近尾声。短期，市场的波动进一步加大后，投 资者后续可积极关注市场未来是否出现放量滞涨、放量大跌及缩量反弹迹 象。中期来看，上证指数、上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、深证成指、创 业板指、科创 50 纷纷确认周线级别上涨，而且在日线上只走出了 3 浪结 构，中期牛市刚刚开始；此外，已有 26 个行业处于周线 ...

Group 1 - On September 2, among the 31 first-level industries tracked by Shenwan, 14 industries experienced net financing inflows, with the non-bank financial sector leading at a net inflow of 1.468 billion yuan [1] - Other industries with significant net financing inflows included pharmaceuticals and biotechnology, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and oil and petrochemicals, each exceeding 100 million yuan in net inflow [1] Group 2 - A total of 1,658 individual stocks received net financing inflows on September 2, with 96 stocks having net inflows exceeding 50 million yuan [1] - Among these, 37 stocks had net financing inflows exceeding 100 million yuan, with Shenghong Technology leading at a net inflow of 1.367 billion yuan [1] - Other notable stocks with significant net inflows included Dongfang Wealth, Top Group, BeiGene, Data Port, Pacific, Sanhua Intelligent Control, Kunlun Wanwei, and Huahong Semiconductor, each with net inflows exceeding 200 million yuan [1]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - Fixed asset investment data in July showed weakness, indicating a need for structural adjustment in the economy[2] - China's GDP growth in the first half of the year was 5.3%, with a target of 5% for the full year, suggesting a manageable outlook for the second half[2] - Historical data indicates that a significant reduction in industrial long-term loans in 2016 was a key factor in the economic recovery, despite weak financial data[12] Group 2: Market Strategy and Trends - Current market conditions show no significant overheating, with market capitalization expanding faster than trading volume[4] - A-share valuations remain reasonable, with expectations of performance recovery driven by inflation[17] - The average return of equity mixed funds was 2.82%, while stock ETFs averaged 2.85% this week, indicating positive fund performance[36] Group 3: Fixed Income and Bond Market - The 10-year government bond yield is seen as having value around 1.8%, with limited upward movement expected in the near term[23] - The bond market is currently not favorable for trading, suggesting a wait-and-see approach for better opportunities[24] - Recent bond issuance has seen yields priced between 3% and 6%, reflecting the impact of new tax policies[22] Group 4: U.S. Inflation Risks - U.S. core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation is expected to rise, potentially exceeding 3% in the second half of the year[28] - Household consumption capacity remains strong, indicating low recession risks despite rising inflation[26] - The employment market shows signs of recovery, which could further support consumer spending and economic stability[27]

Market Overview - The A-share market has shown a strong upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index rising by 11.23%, 13.64%, and 21.69% respectively since the beginning of the year [1] - There is significant internal structural differentiation in the market, with 28 out of 31 Shenwan first-level industries experiencing overall increases, particularly in telecommunications and non-ferrous metals, which have both exceeded 30% growth [1][2] Industry Performance - The top five performing industries include telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, pharmaceutical biology, machinery equipment, and comprehensive industries, all with annual growth rates exceeding 20% [1] - Conversely, industries such as coal, food and beverage, and oil and petrochemicals have seen overall declines this year [1] - Among thematic industries, biotechnology, precious metals, pharmaceuticals, and software have all recorded growth rates above 30%, while sectors like highways, oil and gas, and coal remain in a downward trend [1] Individual Stock Performance - Out of 5,424 A-shares, 4,514 stocks have risen this year, representing 83% of the total [2] - 360 stocks have doubled in value, accounting for 6.6% of the total, with only 6 of these having a market capitalization above 100 billion yuan, indicating a strong performance from smaller companies [2] - Among the 160 stocks with a market capitalization over 100 billion yuan, 49 have declined, showing that smaller market cap companies are outperforming larger ones [2] Market Drivers - The current market uptrend is primarily driven by liquidity, with quantitative products, small active equity products, and retail investors contributing significantly to the influx of funds into small-cap stocks [3][4] - The financing heat in smaller sectors is rising faster than in larger weight sectors, indicating a preference for small-cap investments [3] Valuation and Future Outlook - Despite some industries experiencing significant growth, the overall valuation of the A-share market remains within a reasonable range, with the CSI 300's dynamic price-to-earnings ratio around 12.2 times, which is approximately at the 69th percentile historically since 2010 [5] - The total market capitalization of A-shares is around 100 trillion yuan, with the ratio to GDP remaining relatively low compared to major global markets, suggesting potential for further growth [5][6] Liquidity and Capital Flow - The market liquidity is improving, with the average monthly trading volume as a percentage of the A-share market capitalization reaching the 74.80th percentile since 2015 [7] - The margin financing balance has surpassed 2 trillion yuan, approaching historical peaks, indicating a healthy liquidity environment [7]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed strong performance with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a nearly 10-year high, closing at 3728.03, up by 0.85% [1][5] - The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index also saw significant gains, closing at 11835.57 (up 1.73%) and 2606.20 (up 2.84%) respectively [1][5] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.76 trillion yuan, marking a significant increase of 519.6 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [5] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Communication (up 4.46%), Comprehensive (up 3.43%), and Computer (up 3.33%) [2] - Conversely, the sectors that underperformed were Real Estate (down 0.46%), Oil and Petrochemicals (down 0.10%), and Non-ferrous Metals (down 0.14%) [2] - Concept indices such as Liquid Cooling Servers and Huawei HiSilicon stocks showed strong performance, while Gold Concept and Phosphate Chemical sectors lagged [3] Policy and Economic Signals - The Ministry of Finance announced measures to support the liquidity of the national debt market, aiming to enhance the national debt yield curve [4] - The People's Bank of China released a report indicating a commitment to a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on maintaining liquidity and aligning monetary supply with economic growth [4] Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the core logic supporting the upward trend in A-shares remains unchanged, driven by multiple positive factors [5] - Recommended sectors for investment include large financials, machinery equipment, TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), and consumer goods [5]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.79% with a trading volume of 1,452.28 million shares and a transaction value of 22,808.57 billion yuan, representing a 27.04% increase compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - The top-performing sectors included: - **Telecommunications**: Increased by 4.15% with a transaction value of 1,274.25 billion yuan, up 48.60% from the previous day, led by DeKeLi with a 20.00% rise [1] - **Computers**: Rose by 3.80% with a transaction value of 2,593.83 billion yuan, up 37.01%, led by ShuGuang ShuChuang with a 27.93% increase [1] - **Comprehensive**: Gained 3.70% with a transaction value of 49.43 billion yuan, up 93.18%, led by YaTai Group with a 10.20% rise [1] - The sectors with the largest declines included: - **Petroleum and Petrochemicals**: Decreased by 0.29% with a transaction value of 97.07 billion yuan, up 23.46%, led by HaiYou Engineering with a 2.60% drop [2] - **Real Estate**: Fell by 0.09% with a transaction value of 270.64 billion yuan, up 19.52%, led by WanTong Development with a 9.96% decline [2] Notable Stocks - **Leading Gainers**: - DeKeLi in telecommunications with a 20.00% increase [1] - ShuGuang ShuChuang in computers with a 27.93% increase [1] - JingSai Technology in electronics with a 29.98% increase [1] - **Notable Decliners**: - WanTong Development in real estate with a 9.96% decrease [2] - HaiYou Engineering in petroleum and petrochemicals with a 2.60% drop [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the Shanghai Composite Index, highlighting the importance of a strategic approach to trading in a volatile market, emphasizing the need for a combination of holding core assets and opportunistic trading strategies [5][6]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index recently broke through the previous high of 3674 points and reached 3700 points for the first time in 44 months, indicating a dynamic market with daily shifts in sector performance [5]. - The market has seen a rotation in stock performance, with approximately 2000 stocks rising one day, followed by a more balanced performance the next day, and only about 700 stocks rising on the latest day [5]. Investment Strategy - The article suggests a dual approach to investment: maintaining a "core position" in long-term assets and engaging in "hunting" for short-term opportunities. The core position should consist of assets with high win rates, while the hunting strategy focuses on assets with greater volatility [6]. - It is advised to avoid chasing high prices and to adopt a mindset of "holding" or "buying on dips" to navigate the current market conditions effectively [5][6]. Institutional Investment Insights - Data from the second quarter indicates that northbound investments in banks increased by 29.596 billion, the highest among all sectors, suggesting institutional interest in stable, dividend-paying assets [7]. - The article notes that while the dividend yield for banks has temporarily fallen below 4%, it is expected to recover as dividend payouts accumulate [7]. Financing and Market Dynamics - The article analyzes the concentration of financing in various indices and sectors, revealing that the highest financing balance to market value ratio is in the CSI 1000 index, followed by the CSI 500, while the CSI 300 has a relatively low ratio [11]. - Sectors such as technology, materials, media, and military have high financing ratios, indicating a preference for high-volatility investments, whereas traditional sectors like banking and energy show minimal financing activity [11]. Volatility and Market Trends - The article discusses the recent volatility in the options market, noting that while the Shanghai Composite Index has seen some upward movement, it has not yet triggered significant volatility spikes that would indicate a broader market trend [12].

Group 1 - The A-share market opened slightly higher on August 14, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.06% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.05, while the ChiNext Index remained flat [1] - The market continued its upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3683.46 points, marking a new high since the "9.24" rally in 2024, and total trading volume reaching 2.18 trillion yuan, the highest since March of this year [1] - CICC expressed optimism that the current market rally is not over, suggesting that increased valuations and new capital inflows could lead to greater index volatility, but the combination of loose liquidity, profit recovery, and narrative shifts indicates that the rally since last year's "9.24" is still ongoing [1] Group 2 - The Free Cash Flow ETF (159201) focuses on industry leaders with abundant free cash flow, covering sectors such as home appliances, automobiles, non-ferrous metals, power equipment, and oil and petrochemicals, which helps to effectively mitigate risks associated with single industry fluctuations [1] - The fund management annual fee rate is 0.15%, and the custody annual fee rate is 0.05%, both of which are the lowest in the market [1]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.47% with a trading volume of 1,003.65 million shares and a transaction value of 14,700.36 billion yuan, representing a 5.07% increase compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - The top-performing industries included: - Computer: +2.03% with a transaction value of 1,271.43 billion yuan, down 4.58% from the previous day, led by Huijin Co. with a gain of 17.66% [1] - Electronics: +1.91% with a transaction value of 1,971.51 billion yuan, up 10.62%, led by Lier Technology with a gain of 20.01% [1] - Power Equipment: +1.88% with a transaction value of 1,313.58 billion yuan, up 22.11%, led by Oulu Tong with a gain of 20.00% [1] - The worst-performing industries included: - Oil and Petrochemicals: -0.99% with a transaction value of 81.50 billion yuan, up 6.51%, led by Renzhi Co. with a decline of 1.95% [2] - Banking: -0.63% with a transaction value of 221.23 billion yuan, up 14.02%, led by Zheshang Bank with a decline of 1.75% [2] - Public Utilities: -0.50% with a transaction value of 246.31 billion yuan, down 8.66%, led by Leshan Electric Power with a decline of 3.87% [2]

- The report monitors the current market status from three dimensions: past (funds), present (trading), and future (expectations) [1][11] - This week, the market's major broad-based indices showed a volatile upward trend, with the mid-cap style relatively strong. The CSI 500 index rose by 3.28%, while the SSE 50 index increased by 1.12% [2][12] - The average stock positions of equity public funds decreased week-on-week: this week, the stock positions of general equity funds and partial equity hybrid funds were 84.96% and 74.49%, respectively, down by 1.00% and 1.36% compared to last week [2][14] - The historical percentile of stock positions for general equity funds and partial equity hybrid funds decreased to 7.8% and 1.6% respectively [18][20] - The newly established equity public fund issuance scale increased significantly compared to last week: this week, the issuance scale of newly established equity funds was 166.9 billion yuan, and the issuance scale of hybrid funds was 27.8 billion yuan, totaling 194.7 billion yuan, an increase of 68.9 billion yuan compared to last week [21][23] - The financing balance increased by 392 billion yuan compared to last week, reaching 19,284 billion yuan; the securities lending balance was 136 billion yuan, an increase of 5 billion yuan compared to last week [22][24] - The net financing purchase amount for industries such as non-ferrous metals, machinery, and pharmaceuticals was relatively large, with amounts exceeding 40 billion yuan; the overall net sale amount for the petroleum and petrochemical industry exceeded 4 billion yuan [26][27] - The standard deviation of weekly turnover rates for various industries was 1.01%, up by 0.05% compared to last week [33][34] - The expected compound growth rate of net profit for major broad-based indices mostly increased week-on-week: the expected compound growth rate of the ChiNext index increased by 0.11%, while the CSI 1000 index decreased by 0.15% compared to last week [38][39] - The PE (TTM) percentile of the ChiNext index is relatively low, currently at the historical 44% percentile; the PE percentiles of the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 1000, and Wind All A indices are between the historical 75% and 90% percentiles; the PE percentile of the CSI 500 index is near the historical 95% percentile [40] - The expected compound growth rate of industries such as steel, computers, and electrical equipment and new energy is relatively high, while industries such as coal, real estate, banking, petroleum and petrochemicals, and construction are relatively low [41][43] - The PE (TTM) percentiles of industries such as light manufacturing, national defense and military industry, building materials, electrical equipment and new energy, and coal are relatively high, above the historical 98% percentile; the PE percentiles of industries such as real estate, steel, and food and beverages are relatively low, below the historical 12% percentile [42][44]