风险提示 需求不及预期；行业竞争加剧；稀土价格下行。 金力永磁 300748.SZ | | 买入 （维持） | | --- | --- | | 股价（2025年08月25日） | 36.36 元 | | 目标价格 | 38.54 元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 36.36/9.87 元 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（万股） | 137,213/136,198 | | A 股市值（百万元） | 49,891 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 有色金属 | | 报告发布日期 | 2025 年 08 月 26 日 | 技术创新提毛利，产业布局展鸿图 ——金力永磁半年报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们根据当前行业情况调整吨毛利，预计 2025-2027 年每股收益分别为 0.59、 0.82、1.02 元（原预测 0.52、0.82、1.00 元），根据可比公司 2026 年市盈率估值 情况，给予公司 2026 年 47 倍市盈率，对应目标价 38.54 元，维持买入评级。 | | 1 周 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 12 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company reported a significant performance increase in H1 2025, achieving revenue of 19.178 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.75%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 972 million yuan, a decrease of 4.37% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 923 million yuan, an increase of 7.53% year-on-year [2][4]. - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 10.802 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 28.95% and a year-on-year increase of 21.48%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 581 million yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 48.65% but a year-on-year decrease of 1.41% [2][4]. - The profit structure for H1 2025 showed that tungsten-molybdenum, new energy materials, and rare earths accounted for 74.98%, 20.06%, and 7.38% of total profits, respectively. The growth in Q2 was primarily driven by contributions from tungsten-molybdenum and new energy sectors [2][4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Tungsten-Molybdenum - The tungsten-molybdenum segment achieved a total profit of 1.268 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 10.94%. In Q2 2025, the profit totaled 739 million yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 40% [9]. - The increase in tungsten prices significantly contributed to the performance, with the company having a production capacity of 12,000 tons of tungsten concentrate. The domestic tungsten concentrate price began to rise sharply in Q2 2025, enhancing performance elasticity [9]. - The deep processing sector showed strong profitability, with cutting tools achieving a gross margin of over 40%. The company adjusted product prices to enhance market penetration and explore new applications for tungsten wire products [9]. New Energy Materials - The new energy materials segment reported a total profit of 339 million yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 35.47%. In Q2 2025, the profit was 215 million yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 73% [9]. - The demand for lithium cobalt oxide was strong, driven by favorable policies and consumer electronics demand. The company sold 28,800 tons of lithium cobalt oxide in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 57% [9]. Rare Earth Magnetic Materials - The rare earth magnetic materials segment achieved a total profit of 125 million yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.71%. In Q2 2025, the profit was 59 million yuan, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 11% [9]. - The company expanded its production capacity in the rare earth sector, with new projects expected to contribute to performance in the coming years [9].

核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 有色、钢铁行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 出口高增单价高企，稀土磁材板块有望持 续向上 ——稀土磁材行业动态跟踪 稀土磁材行业出口政策变化、下游需求不及预期、假设条件变化影响测算结果 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色、钢铁行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 08 月 24 日 看好（维持） 刘洋 021-63325888*6084 liuyang3@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860520010002 香港证监会牌照：BTB487 | | | | 战略金属板块的行情还能延续吗：——有 | 2025-07-27 | | --- | --- | | 色钢铁行业周思考（2025 年第 29 周） | | | 从政治政策风险溢价的角度看有色钢铁： | 2025-07-13 | | ——有色钢铁行业周思考（2025 年第 28 | | | 周） | | | 从战略与策略角度看稀土板块的配置价 | 2025-06-23 | | 值：——有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 年第 | | | 25 周） | | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明 ...

Industry Overview - The rare earth magnetic materials industry saw a weekly increase of 1.86%, underperforming the benchmark by 0.51 percentage points, with a current valuation (TTM P/E) of 92.2x, which is at 96.2% of its historical percentile [3] - Significant price increases were observed in rare earth concentrates, with prices for mixed rare earth carbonate, fluorocarbon cerium ore in Sichuan, and fluorocarbon cerium ore in Shandong rising by 9.09%, 10.34%, and 12.5% respectively [3] - The prices of praseodymium and neodymium have surged, with praseodymium oxide and praseodymium metal prices increasing by 7.01% and 6.03% respectively, driven by strong downstream demand [3][5] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply tightness persists in the rare earth sector, with high raw material prices leading to reduced operations in some separation enterprises, while short-term increases in praseodymium and neodymium production are limited [6] - Downstream demand remains optimistic, particularly from major neodymium-iron-boron manufacturers, with good order intake in August, although overall inventory levels are low [6] - The magnetic materials segment is experiencing a mixed demand outlook, with new energy vehicle production and sales growth slowing, while wind power installations are expected to release some demand [6] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains an "overweight" rating for the industry, suggesting a focus on upstream rare earth resource companies that may benefit from tightening supply and potential demand increases due to relaxed export controls [7] - Long-term prospects for downstream magnetic material companies are expected to improve as rare earth prices stabilize, with a recommendation to monitor companies with strong customer structures and new growth opportunities, such as Jinli Permanent Magnet [7] Food and Beverage Sector - The food and beverage industry saw a modest increase of 0.48% from August 11 to August 15, underperforming the broader market indices [9] - Kweichow Moutai's performance met expectations, with a revenue of 91.094 billion yuan and a net profit of 45.403 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 9.16% and 8.89% respectively [10] - Moutai has introduced a new 500ml four-bottle packaging to cater to diverse consumer needs, aiming to enhance market reach and optimize supply-demand matching [11] Investment Strategy in Food and Beverage - The report suggests focusing on high-quality stocks with stable demand and strong risk resilience, as well as companies actively innovating in new products and channels [12] - Recommended stocks include Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Qingdao Beer, with a maintained "buy" rating for the food and beverage sector [12]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.70% to close at 3696.77 points, while the CSI 300 Index rose by 2.37% to 4202.35 points. The SW Nonferrous Metals Industry Index saw a gain of 3.62%, closing at 5905.88 points as of August 15 [2][4]. Sub-industry Performance - Among the five sub-industries in the nonferrous metals sector, the changes compared to the previous week were as follows: Industrial metals +5.31%, Precious metals -3.45%, Minor metals +1.73%, Energy metals +2.79%, and New metal materials +7.67% [2][4]. Key Metal Prices - Key metal prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were as follows: Copper at 79,060 CNY/ton (+0.79%), Aluminum at 20,770 CNY/ton (+0.48%), Zinc at 22,505 CNY/ton (0.00%), Lead at 16,850 CNY/ton (-0.09%), Nickel at 120,600 CNY/ton (-0.46%), and Tin at 266,820 CNY/ton (-0.49%) [3]. - On the London Metal Exchange, prices were: Copper at 9,760 USD/ton (-0.02%), Aluminum at 2,603 USD/ton (-0.23%), Zinc at 2,797 USD/ton (-1.08%), Lead at 1,981 USD/ton (-1.32%), Nickel at 15,195 USD/ton (+0.26%), and Tin at 33,610 USD/ton (-0.04%) [3]. Lithium and Cobalt Prices - Battery-grade lithium carbonate and industrial-grade lithium carbonate prices increased significantly, with battery-grade lithium carbonate at 84,000 CNY/ton (+23.08%) and industrial-grade at 83,000 CNY/ton (+23.42%). Battery-grade lithium hydroxide rose by 14.19% to 77,875 CNY/ton, while Australian lithium concentrate increased by 33.33% to 864 USD/ton [3]. - Domestic cobalt prices showed mixed results, with electrolytic cobalt at 258,500 CNY/ton (-1.71%) and other cobalt products experiencing slight increases [3]. Investment Recommendations - The global copper supply is facing disruptions, particularly from the El Teniente copper mine in Chile, which has led to a downward revision of copper production forecasts for the year to 5.58 million tons, a 1.5% increase year-on-year [4][5]. - Despite being in a seasonal demand lull, strong demand from the power grid and new energy sectors is expected to support copper prices. The current low inventory levels in China are also contributing to a favorable price environment [5]. - Companies to watch include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Western Mining, and Jinchuan Group, as they are well-positioned to benefit from these trends [5]. - The rare earth sector is also expected to see price increases due to stricter export controls and strong domestic demand, with key companies like Northern Rare Earth, Zhuhai Yinlong, and others being highlighted for potential growth [5].

证券研究报告 中科三环 (000970 CH) 4 月 4 日，商务部、海关总署发布公告，对中重稀土相关物项实施出口管制。 此次出口管制中，除了军用钐钴永磁材料以外，主要针对含镝/铽的钕铁硼 永磁材料。受此影响，公司磁材产品海外区域营收有所下降，25H1 磁材产 品国内、国外营收分别 yoy+5.62%、-28.85%，毛利率分别为 7.24%、 11.55%，分别 yoy+0.82pct、-0.27pct。合并口径看，公司磁材产品 25H1 营收 yoy-14.93%，毛利率为 9.39%，yoy-0.25pct，经营数据受政策一定影 响。但公司经营业绩同比扭亏并增长明显，主要因 1）受汇率波动影响，汇 兑收益同比增长；2）原材料价格相对稳定，资产减值损失同比大幅减少。 我们预期 25H2 公司磁材产品出口将有所恢复 展望下半年，财联社记者从业内获悉，截至 5 月 18 号，已经有至少 6 家企 业拿到了商务部发放的稀土两用物质出口许可证件，其中包括中科三环。随 着稀土出口流程逐步捋顺，我们预期 25H2 公司磁材产品出口将有所恢复。 中期来看，我们预期 25-26 年全球氧化镨钕需求约为 11.97 和 ...

Industry Overview - The rare earth magnetic materials industry experienced a 6.96% increase last week, outperforming the benchmark (CSI 300) by 5.73 percentage points [4] - The industry valuation (TTM P/E ratio) rose to 90.57x, currently at 95.7% of its historical percentile [4] Price Trends - Last week, rare earth concentrate prices generally declined, with praseodymium-neodymium prices dropping and dysprosium and terbium oxide averages being adjusted downwards [5] - Domestic mixed rare earth carbonate, Sichuan fluorocarbon cerium ore, and Shandong fluorocarbon cerium ore prices fell by 2.94%, 3.33%, and 4% respectively [5] - The average price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide decreased by 1.88%, while the metal price fell by 0.47% [5] - Dysprosium oxide prices decreased by 1.52%, and terbium oxide prices fell by 1.26% [5] - The price of sintered neodymium-iron-boron (N35) dropped by 0.77%, and H35 decreased by 0.51% due to insufficient cost support [5] Investment Insights - In the rare earth sector, praseodymium-neodymium product supply remains tight in the short term, with a decrease in imported ore quantities and a decline in production in July [7] - Demand for neodymium-iron-boron from major manufacturers remains stable, with new orders being acceptable and inventory levels low [7] - Despite a short-term decline in raw material prices, the market sentiment is not overly pessimistic, indicating limited downside potential for prices [7] - The demand from the downstream electric vehicle sector is expected to slow, while the wind power installation shows potential for release [7] - The overall industry capacity is excessive, with low operating rates, leading to a favorable position for leading companies [7] Valuation and Performance - Recent rapid price increases in the industry have pushed valuations to high levels, with the need for sustained performance improvements to support these valuations [7] - The upward trend in rare earth magnetic material prices and industry profitability is highly dependent on supply-demand improvements and policy expectations [7] Recommendations - Maintain an "overweight" rating for the industry, focusing on upstream rare earth resource companies that may benefit from tightening supply expectations and potential demand increases due to relaxed export controls [8] - From a medium to long-term perspective, as rare earth prices gradually recover, downstream magnetic material companies are expected to see continued profit recovery [8] - Attention is recommended for companies with strong customer structures, full capacity utilization, and new growth opportunities, such as Jinli Permanent Magnet [8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3][10] Core Views - The rare earth magnetic materials industry has shown strong performance this week, with a price increase of 6.96%, outperforming the benchmark (CSI 300) by 5.73 percentage points [5][12] - The industry valuation (TTM P/E) has increased to 90.57x, which is at 95.7% of its historical percentile [5][12] - Despite a general price decline in rare earth concentrates, the supply of praseodymium and neodymium products remains tight in the short term, with a decrease in import quantities [10][42] - The demand side shows a favorable outlook for the third quarter, with expectations of increased orders for praseodymium and neodymium [10][42] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The rare earth magnetic materials industry has outperformed the CSI 300 index over the past month, three months, and twelve months, with relative returns of 30%, 39%, and 94% respectively [4] - Absolute returns for the same periods are 32%, 45%, and 117% [4] Price Trends - This week, the prices of rare earth concentrates have generally declined, with specific decreases of 2.94%, 3.33%, and 4% for various domestic rare earth minerals [9][14] - The average price of praseodymium and neodymium has decreased by 1.88% and 0.47% respectively [15][17] - The average price of dysprosium and terbium oxides has also seen a decline, with dysprosium down by 1.52% and terbium down by 1.26% [20][21] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on upstream rare earth resource companies due to expectations of supply tightening and potential demand increases from relaxed export controls [10][43] - It is recommended to pay attention to downstream magnetic material companies with strong customer structures and new growth opportunities, such as Jinli Permanent Magnet [10][44]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - **Express Delivery Industry** [4] - **Aviation Industry** [5] - **Chemical Industry** [7][9] - **Agricultural Chemicals** [8] - **Steel Industry** [3][11] - **Coal Industry** [15][17] Core Insights and Arguments Express Delivery Industry - Express delivery prices in Guangdong increased by 0.4 yuan on August 5, 2025, potentially leading to price hikes in other regions due to competitive pressures [4] - The increase in social security contributions starting September adds operational pressure on franchisees, further driving the need for price adjustments [4] - Historical data shows successful price increases in the past, indicating strong and reasonable demand for this round of price hikes, benefiting companies like Jitu, Shentong, Yunda, Yuantong, and Zhongtong [4] Aviation Industry - The aviation sector is currently implementing measures to counter competition, such as limiting low ticket prices and possibly introducing kilometer yield limits [5] - Despite weak demand during the summer travel season, the long-term supply-demand relationship in the aviation sector remains attractive, with companies like Huaxia Airlines and Spring Airlines being noteworthy [5] Chemical Industry - The chemical sector is in a seasonal lull, with supply and demand currently stagnant, awaiting recovery [7] - MDI prices were stable, while TDI prices saw a slight decline; polyester prices are expected to recover as the peak season approaches [7] - The chemical industry is anticipated to improve in the latter half of the year due to easing PPI deflation and supportive policies [9] Agricultural Chemicals - Chloride potassium prices rose slightly from 3,250 yuan to 3,285 yuan, with a decrease in inventory indicating a supply-demand imbalance [8] - Major global potassium fertilizer companies are optimistic about the second half of the year, with increased demand forecasts [8] - Glyphosate production rates have decreased, leading to a slight price increase, with expectations for further price rises due to low production rates and upcoming export seasons [8] Steel Industry - The steel sector is currently undervalued with low institutional holdings, making it susceptible to price increases [11] - Anticipated demand from the "Golden September and Silver October" season and production limits in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region could catalyze price increases [11] Coal Industry - Coal prices have significantly increased due to supply constraints and declining inventories, with expectations for further price rises [15][17] - Factors such as rainfall, production checks, and safety inspections are limiting supply, contributing to price increases [16] - The forecast for thermal coal prices could reach 710 yuan or higher, with companies like Shaanxi Coal benefiting from this trend [17] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The express delivery industry's price adjustments are seen as a necessary response to operational pressures and historical precedents [4] - The aviation sector's long-term attractiveness despite short-term challenges suggests potential investment opportunities [5] - The chemical industry's future outlook is supported by anticipated policy changes aimed at addressing overcapacity and improving supply-demand dynamics [9] - The agricultural chemicals market is experiencing a shift in demand, particularly for potassium fertilizers, which could benefit leading companies [8] - The steel industry's potential for recovery is linked to broader economic conditions and seasonal demand patterns [11] - The coal industry's price dynamics are influenced by both supply-side constraints and demand recovery, indicating a complex market environment [15][17]

Macro Information and Commentary - In the first seven months of this year, China's total import and export value of goods reached 25.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%. Exports amounted to 15.31 trillion yuan, growing by 7.3% [4] - The State Council announced a free preschool education policy, expected to benefit approximately 12 million children this fall semester, reducing family expenses by about 20 billion yuan [4] - Starting September 29, South Korea will implement a temporary visa waiver policy for Chinese group tourists, initially lasting until June next year [5] - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by only 73,000 in July, the lowest in nine months, raising concerns about a potential recession [5] Automotive Industry - Shanghai has issued the first batch of smart connected vehicle demonstration operation licenses, marking a new phase in the commercialization of autonomous driving [6][8] - The first licensed companies, including Pony.ai and Jinjiang Taxi, have launched autonomous taxi services, combining technology and traditional taxi operations [6][8] - The issuance of licenses signifies a significant breakthrough in Shanghai's smart transportation development, with plans to deploy 500 data-collecting ride-hailing vehicles [8] - Investment opportunities in the automotive sector are notable due to the acceleration of intelligent technology adoption and supportive policies for automotive consumption [9] Chemical Industry - Dongyue Group is a leading enterprise in the fluorosilicone industry, focusing on refrigerants and silicone materials [11] - The company holds a leading position in refrigerant quotas, expected to benefit from high demand and pricing in the refrigerant market [12][14] - Dongyue's fluoropolymer materials have a significant market share, with a production capacity of 55,000 tons of PTFE, leading the industry [13][14] - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.94 billion, 2.44 billion, and 2.99 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [16] Public Utilities - The public utilities sector has seen a decline of 1.84% this week, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [18][19] - The energy transition is accelerating, with renewable energy installations reaching 268 million kilowatts in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 99.3% [24] - Investment recommendations focus on hydropower assets, thermal power with favorable supply-demand dynamics, and green electricity projects [25] Real Estate - In July, the transaction volume of new and second-hand homes in major cities showed a seasonal decline, with new home sales down 19.2% year-on-year [27][28] - The sales volume of the top 100 real estate companies decreased by 22% in July, indicating a tightening market [29] - Investment suggestions include focusing on leading real estate companies with strong land acquisition capabilities and active second-hand housing agencies [31] Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor sector is experiencing a seasonal decline in housing transactions, impacting demand [33][34] - The top 100 real estate companies' sales figures reflect a challenging environment, with significant year-on-year decreases [35] New Materials - The rare earth magnetic materials industry has seen a decline of 6.63%, underperforming the benchmark index [39] - Prices for rare earth minerals continue to rise, with significant increases in the prices of praseodymium and neodymium [40][43] - Investment recommendations focus on upstream rare earth resource companies benefiting from tightening supply and increased demand [42] Medical Services - WuXi Biologics is a global leader in the biopharmaceutical CDMO sector, providing comprehensive services from drug discovery to commercialization [45] - The company is expected to achieve a revenue CAGR of 36.0% from 2019 to 2024, with significant growth in non-COVID related business [46] - Investment outlook remains positive, with projected revenues of 21.47 billion, 23.65 billion, and 25.91 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [49]