国联期货研究所 能源化工研究团队 交易咨询业务资格编号 能源化工|季度报告 贾万敬 从业资格号：F03086791 投资咨询号：Z0016549 聚酯产业链 2026 年一季度报告 2026 年 1 月 9 日 需求季节性回落，价格仍将偏强运行 2025.12.12 OPEC 暂停增产 一季度国际油价预期较好 证监许可[2011]1773 号 分析师： 2025 年，在 OPEC+不断增产原油的政策影响下，WTI 原油价格累计下跌 18.7%。2026 年一季度，OPEC 暂停增产，且处于原油需求传统旺季阶段，预计 国际油价将修复性反弹。若 3 月 OPEC+会议确定于二季度恢复增产原油，那么 国际油价将再次承压。 PTA 开工率偏低 存在提升空间 相关研究报告： 《聚酯产业链月报：油价波 动放缓，产业需求将逐步回 根据卓创资讯的统计，2025 年 PTA 平均开工率为 78.1%，较上一年度下降 4.3 个百分点，12 月下旬 PTA 开工率一度下降至 73.3%，比 2025 年开工率均值 低 4.8 个百分点。PTA 开工率偏低，而需求相对稳定，11 月下旬之后，PTA 社 会库存持续下降，引发 PX ...

Core Viewpoint - The chemical sector is showing relative strength, with the leading chemical ETF (516220) rising by 1.79% on December 30, driven by price increases in PX and downstream products [1]. Group 1: PX and Downstream Products - PX prices are increasing due to tight supply driven by higher demand for upstream toluene/xylene from overseas refining, leading to a sustained rise in PX prices [2]. - The polyester filament industry has announced self-discipline production cuts to maintain prices, which began on December 24 and will continue to expand leading up to the Spring Festival, with weekly supervision checks in place [2]. Group 2: BOPET and PTA - BOPET prices are stabilizing and rising steadily since December 22, supported by sufficient existing orders and rising raw material costs [3]. - A 3.6 million ton PTA facility in East China reduced its operating load on December 25 due to issues, with the recovery timeline still pending, while other facilities are also undergoing maintenance [3]. Group 3: Polyester Industry Chain Potential - According to analysis from Kaiyuan Securities, the polyester industry chain has strong potential for anti-involution, characterized by nearing the end of capacity expansion, continuous demand growth, high market share among leading companies, and a predominance of private enterprises focused on profit-driven development [3]. - The chemical sector is complex with many sub-sectors and fast rotation, making the leading chemical ETF (516220) a viable option for investors looking to capitalize on opportunities in the chemical sector [3].

永胜西路22 号新凯广场2 座39 楼 http://www.fsjkqh.com/ 2026 年度展望—聚酯产业 人员：梁嘉欣 佛山金控期货 期货从业资格号：F3062049 投资咨询资格证号：Z0016966 联系方式：0757-86296271 佛山金控期货 PTA：展望 2026 年，在宏观环境趋稳、内需稳步修复的背景下， 我国聚酯行业产能将继续有序扩张，对上游原料形成支撑。PTA 全年 暂无新增产能，供需结构预计偏紧。伴随上游 PX 供应增加，利润有 望向中游让渡，PTA 加工费存在修复空间。分季度看，一季度在库存 积累压力下价格或承压；二季度起，随着上游检修集中、聚酯新产能 投放及传统需求旺季到来，供需有望逐步改善，价格重心存在上移预 期。下半年重点关注"金九银十"旺季表现，在全年无新产能投放的 背景下，PTA 或延续去库态势。全年可关注阶段性逢低布局机会。 研究部 交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2013】193 号 乙二醇：展望 2026 年，纺织终端外需增长空间有限，内需有望 维持温和修复。乙二醇供应端在上半年受新增产能投放及累库效应影 响面临压力，下半年随着投产放缓、尤其三季度暂无新投产能， ...

最近两个交易日，聚酯品种表现较强。本周五，PX和PTA期货主力合约开盘后增仓上行，双双创下近3个月以来的新高。 库存方面，12月PTA维持去库态势，1至2月聚酯开工负荷大概率季节性下降，有小幅累库预期，但整体累库压力明显偏低，短期基本面的稳健表现为行情 提供了有力支撑。 PTA2605 ▲ TA2605 期货 主力 夜盛 2.03% 74.24万 4992 振幅 高 메레 4980 4822 117.3万 4894 持仓 俱 昨结 158 3.28% 4896 +87088 开 今结 日增 l 相关ETF 2 能源化工 ETF 1.215 0.75% > 日K 周K 月K 五日 分时 更多。 0 均线 ▼ 日线 MA5:4792 10:4745 20:4754 30:4749 筹码 5028 4992-> 4873 4718 4563 L7 -4444 2025/10/20 2025/11/20 2025/12/22 其中，PX期货价格创下自3月以来的阶段高点，PTA期货价格成功突破年内高点4900元/吨。在当前原油和化工品市场整体表现偏弱的背景下，PX和PTA的 价格表现引发市场关注。 强预期成为行情"发动 ...

能源化工|年度报告 聚酯产业链年度报告 2025 年 12 月 12 日 供需形势将逐步好转，低价格低利润有望修复 国联期货研究所 能源化工研究团队 交易咨询业务资格编号 贾万敬 从业资格号：F03086791 投资咨询号：Z0016549 2025.06.27 《聚酯产业链月报：油价波 动放缓，产业需求将逐步回 升》2025.07.31 慢》2025.08.29 成本和需求季节性波动，价 格或前低后高》2025.09.29 2025.10.30 将好转》2025.11.27 展望 《聚酯产业链月报：反内卷 叙事提振，价格开始回暖》 《聚酯产业链专题报告：产 OPEC+不断增产，使国际油价在2025年承压下行。尽管2026年一季度OPEC 暂停增产，后期或将重启增产政策，国际油价重新面临下行压力。2025 年国际 油价累计跌幅 19%左右，预计 2026 年跌幅将有所收窄，不过需要关注过剩预期 的兑现情况。 能扩张高峰已过，供需关系 聚酯产业链方面，PX、PTA 和乙二醇的产能和产量增速放缓，而需求将延 续小幅增长趋势，供需关系将出现好转。在产能扩张放缓，需求逐步增长的情 况下，行业低价格、低利润运行的状况将 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Overall, the domestic demand for ethylene glycol in the demand side has declined at a moderate pace. After the liberalization of BIS, the export orders for filament have increased significantly. The polyester demand is expected to remain above 91% in November, and the average monthly load in December is expected to be adjusted from 90% to slightly below 91%. Recently, there have been many unexpected incidents in the supply - side devices, and the subsequent inventory accumulation slope has eased. However, the coking coal trading in the cost side has weakened, indicating a reduced concern about the cost side, and the price has continued to break through and decline. In the long - term, the slowdown and delay of inventory accumulation are just rhythm issues, and the pattern of valuation pressure under the expectation of oversupply in supply - demand cannot be reversed. The current expectation of near - end explicit inventory accumulation has been partially fulfilled, and the anti - risk ability against supply - side accidents has also increased. Therefore, the idea of shorting on rallies remains unchanged. In terms of the downward space, the cash flow of the current coal - based marginal ethylene glycol devices has been compressed below the cost line. Considering the start - up situation of coal - based devices, if the valuation continues to be compressed, it is expected to receive strong support from the supply side around 3700. Specifically, for the 01 contract, short positions or selling call options can be considered above 3900 [5]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Polyester Price Range Forecast | Product | Price Range Forecast (Monthly) | Current Volatility (20 - day Rolling) | Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 years) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Ethylene Glycol | 3650 - 4100 | 16.39% | 34.0% | | PX | 6300 - 7100 | 14.77% | 37.9% | | PTA | 4300 - 4900 | 11.91% | 15.7% | | Bottle Chips | 5400 - 6000 | 9.91% | 13.7% | [4] Polyester Hedging Strategy Table - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory is high and there is a concern about the decline in ethylene glycol price, for long - position spot exposure, shorting ethylene glycol futures (EG2601) with a 25% hedging ratio in the range of 3880 - 3980 can lock in profits and make up for production costs. Buying put options (EG2601P3750) and selling call options (EG2601C3900) with a 50% hedging ratio can prevent price drops and reduce capital costs [4]. - **Procurement Management**: When the procurement of regular inventory is low and procurement is to be made according to orders, for short - position spot exposure, buying ethylene glycol futures (EG2601) with a 50% hedging ratio in the range of 3700 - 3750 can lock in procurement costs. Selling put options (EG2601P3750) with a 75% hedging ratio can collect premiums to reduce procurement costs and lock in the purchase price of spot ethylene glycol if the price drops [4]. Polyester Daily Table 01 - **Price**: It shows the prices of various polyester - related products on 2025 - 11 - 27, 2025 - 11 - 26, and 2025 - 11 - 20, including Brent crude oil, naphtha, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, polyester fibers, etc., as well as their daily and weekly changes [8]. - **Spread**: It includes the basis differences of TA, EG, PF, and the month - to - month spreads of PX, TA, EG, etc., and their daily and weekly changes [8][9]. - **Processing Fee**: It shows the processing fees and profits of various products such as gasoline reforming spread, aromatics reforming spread, naphtha cracking spread, etc., and their daily and weekly changes. It also includes the production and sales rates of polyester products [9]. Core Contradictions - Demand for polyester remains relatively high, with an expected load of over 91% in November and an adjusted average monthly load of slightly below 91% in December. Supply - side device accidents have led to a slowdown in inventory accumulation, but the weakening of coking coal trading in the cost side has reduced cost concerns, and the price has continued to decline. In the long - term, the oversupply situation persists, and the valuation pressure pattern cannot be reversed. The expectation of near - end inventory accumulation has been partially fulfilled, and the anti - risk ability has increased. The idea of shorting on rallies remains unchanged. The ethylene glycol price is expected to receive support around 3700 [5]. 利多解读 (Likely to be "Positive Interpretations") - Recently, there have been many unexpected shutdowns of ethylene glycol devices in the Chinese mainland, involving a total capacity of 1 million tons. Some overseas shutdown devices' restart expectations have also been delayed [6]. 利空解读 (Likely to be "Negative Interpretations") - A new 830,000 - ton/year MEG device in South China is planned to start trial production with ethylene feedstock in early November, and it is expected to bring a small additional supply increment in December [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes the supply - demand development of the polyester industry, focusing on the capacity development of raw materials and downstream polyester products. It details the growth trends, production capacity distributions, and market characteristics of PX, PTA, MEG, and various polyester products, providing an in - depth understanding of the industry's current situation and future trends [1][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Raw Material - end Capacity Development 3.1.1 PX Capacity Development - From 2018 to 2023, domestic PX capacity increased from 1463000 tons to 43670000 tons. The average annual new production capacity from 2019 - 2023 was 4 - 8 million tons, with an average annual capacity growth rate of about 25%. There will be a new capacity launch window period from 2024 - 2025, but the capacity utilization rate has increased significantly [11][14][17]. - By enterprise nature, state - owned oil companies account for 38.2% of the total capacity, and private refining and chemical integration plants put into operation after 2019 account for 44.9% [17]. - Planned new capacity includes projects such as Shenghong Petrochemical (2 million tons in 2023), Zhongwei Guangdong Petrochemical (2.6 million tons in 2023), and Yulong Petrochemical (3 million tons in 2026) [16]. 3.1.2 PTA Capacity Development - Global PTA capacity is mainly concentrated in Asia, with China accounting for over 78% of Asia's capacity. From 2023 - 2025, 3 - 4 new domestic PTA plants will be put into operation annually, and in 2026, domestic production will slow down while India's new production capacity will increase [20][21]. - Domestically, PTA capacity is geographically concentrated, with over half in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, followed by coastal areas such as Liaoning, Fujian, Guangdong, and Hainan. The industry's CR2 is as high as 41%, and CR6 reaches 74% [23][24]. - The industry has good capacity matching, with an increasing proportion of large - scale and integrated plants [27]. - From 2016 - 2018, PTA profits were good due to limited new capacity growth. After 2019, with the release of private large - scale refining and chemical projects, PTA processing fees declined rapidly, and some high - cost small - scale plants were phased out [32]. 3.1.3 MEG Capacity Development - Domestic MEG capacity and production have been growing steadily, entering a new investment peak after 2018. In 2020, the capacity growth rate reached 47%. From 2021 - 2023, it continued to grow rapidly but at a declining rate. In 2024, the net investment growth rate dropped to 2.3%, and the capacity reached 3027500 tons [37][39]. - Ethylene - based MEG plants are mainly in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Liaoning, while coal - based plants are in Shaanxi, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, etc. Currently, ethylene - based capacity accounts for about 64%, and coal - based capacity accounts for 36% [41][42]. - MEG imports peaked in 2020 and have gradually declined. In 2024, the import dependence dropped to 25%. The main import sources are Saudi Arabia, Canada, and the United States. In 2025, the proportion from the United States decreased due to tariff issues [48]. - In September 2025, Yulong Petrochemical's launch marked a new expansion cycle for MEG, and the capacity growth rate will accelerate again in 2026 [50]. 3.2 Downstream Polyester Capacity Development 3.2.1 Overall Polyester Capacity - From 2019 - 2023, downstream weaving transferred and expanded, and the high pre - tax profits of polyester stimulated continuous investment planning, with an average annual investment of over 5 million tons of capacity [55]. - As of the end of 2024, the total polyester capacity was 8634000 tons, with filament accounting for about half and bottle chips accounting for nearly a quarter. The concentration of mainstream large - scale manufacturers has increased significantly, with CR3 reaching 38% and CR7 reaching 57%. Production areas are concentrated in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Fujian [58][59]. 3.2.2 Growth of Each Polyester Product - Since 2023, the capacity of bottle chips has increased rapidly, followed by filament and staple fiber. In 2024, the growth rate of bottle chips was still significant at 23%, while the growth rates of filament and staple fiber slowed down significantly [62]. 3.2.3 Staple Fiber Capacity - The investment growth rate of staple fiber has been relatively stable. In recent years, the years with higher growth rates were 2018, 2019, and 2021, with a capacity growth rate of over 7.5%. After a 4.8% increase in 2023, the investment growth rate slowed down significantly in 2024 and 2025. However, the capacity utilization rate was high in the past two years, resulting in production growth rates of 12.4% and 5.2% in 2023 and 2024 respectively [66]. - Staple fiber is mainly distributed in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Fujian, accounting for 85% in total, with Jiangsu accounting for nearly half. As the capacity expands, the downstream consumption structure has changed, and the proportion of differentiated staple fiber has increased significantly [72]. - China's staple fiber is mainly for export. After 2020, the export proportion has gradually increased, and the export destinations are relatively scattered [79]. 3.2.4 Bottle Chip Capacity - The expansion cycle of domestic polyester bottle chip capacity has two stages: 2011 - 2014 and 2018 to the present. The average annual investment growth rate in recent years has been nearly 13%, and the investment pace has accelerated since 2022 [82]. - As of November 2025, the cumulative capacity of polyester bottle chips was 2153000 tons. Four companies, Yisheng, Sanfangxiang, Huarun, and Wankai, accounted for about 78% of the capacity, with most having an integrated layout [88]. - From 2023 - 2024, many polyester bottle chip projects were launched. Newly launched single - set devices are larger in scale, reducing costs. Future launches will still be concentrated in China, mainly by large manufacturers, but some projects may be postponed due to profit issues [89]. - In 2024, China's total consumption of polyester bottle chips was about 9.8 million tons, accounting for about 1/4 of the global total. The main downstream consumption areas are soft drinks, exports, sheets and others, and oil bottles, accounting for 39%, 42.4%, 15.8%, and 2.9% respectively [92]. - The soft drink industry has a relatively large demand for bottle chips, with obvious seasonality. China is the world's largest net exporter of polyester bottle chips. Although there are trade frictions, the export market still has an optimistic outlook [95].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The demand side of ethylene glycol (EG) has changed little. Polyester demand is expected to remain around 91% in November and weaken seasonally from December. Recently, there have been many unexpected incidents in the supply - side devices, and the subsequent inventory accumulation slope has eased. Against the background of the strong trend of thermal coal, the cost - side support has strengthened, making it difficult for the price to break below 3900. However, in the long run, the slowdown and delay of inventory accumulation are just rhythm issues, and the pattern of valuation pressure under the expectation of supply - demand surplus is difficult to reverse. The operation idea of shorting on rallies remains unchanged. If the valuation continues to compress, there will be strong supply - side support around 3700. For the 01 contract, below 3900, short positions can be closed and call options can be sold instead [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents Polyester Price and Volatility - The monthly price range of ethylene glycol is predicted to be 3750 - 4200, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.19% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 26.4%. For PX, it is 6300 - 7100, 14.65%, and 37.0% respectively; for PTA, 4300 - 4900, 13.86%, and 23.8%; for bottle chips, 5400 - 6000, 10.84%, and 27.6% [2]. Polyester Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory is high and there is concern about the decline of ethylene glycol prices, for the long - position spot exposure, one can short EG2601 futures to lock in profits (25% hedging ratio, entry range 4000 - 4100). One can also buy EG2601P3800 put options to prevent price drops and sell EG2601C4050 call options to reduce capital costs (50% hedging ratio, entry range 40 - 80) [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the procurement of regular inventory is low and one hopes to purchase according to order situations, for the short - position spot exposure, one can buy EG2601 futures to lock in procurement costs (50% hedging ratio, entry range 3800 - 3900). One can also sell EG2601P3800 put options to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the price drops (75% hedging ratio, entry range 40 - 80) [2]. Core Contradiction Analysis - The demand for polyester is expected to remain stable in November and weaken seasonally from December. The supply - side device incidents have eased the inventory accumulation slope, and the cost - side support has strengthened. But in the long run, the supply - demand surplus situation remains, and the operation strategy is to short on rallies. The price is expected to get strong support around 3700. For the 01 contract, short positions can be closed and call options can be sold below 3900 [3]. 利多解读 (Positive Factors) - There have been many unexpected shutdowns of ethylene glycol devices at home and abroad recently. In China, Guangxi Huayi (200,000 tons), Hongsifang (300,000 tons), and Sinochem Quanzhou (500,000 tons, rumored) have shut down, with a total loss of 1 million tons of production capacity. Abroad, a 750,000 - ton/year MEG device in Malaysia has been shut down since late September and will continue until 2027, and a 900,000 - ton/year EG device in Singapore has postponed its restart [4][6]. 利空解读 (Negative Factors) - An 830,000 - ton/year MEG new device in South China plans to start trial production with ethylene feedstock in early November, and part of the production will be available in the market. The original planned production time was the first quarter of 2026, and now it is advanced, which will bring a small additional supply increment in December [7]. Market Data - **Price Data**: On November 19, 2025, the prices of various polyester - related products and their changes compared with the previous day and the previous week are provided, including Brent crude oil, PX, PTA, EG, etc. For example, the EG01 contract price was 3903 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan from the previous day and up 12 yuan from the previous week [8]. - **Spread Data**: The spreads between different contracts and the changes in basis, month - to - month spreads, and processing fees are also presented. For example, the TA1 - 5 month spread was - 62 yuan/ton, with a daily change of - 6 yuan and a weekly change of 0 yuan [8][9]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of warehouse receipts for PTA, MEG, and PX and their changes are given. For example, the number of PTA warehouse receipts was 111,696, unchanged from the previous day and up 13,246 from the previous week [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Global crude oil supply is expected to be loose with an increasing surplus, while demand will gradually recover from November to December. The Fed's interest rate cuts may boost demand [10][33][36]. - In the polyester industry chain, anti - involution may lead to an active contraction of the supply side. Although demand was better than expected in October, there is still a risk of a lagging decline. The low - profit situation of PTA and bottle chips may improve [10][112][113]. Summary by Directory 1. Polyester Industry Chain Market Review - **PX**: The 200 - million - ton/year PX plant of Zhejiang Petrochemical's maintenance plan was not fulfilled. The monthly average operating rate in October increased slightly, and the inventory increased slightly. The consumption was still good in October. The price was mainly affected by crude oil, first falling and then rebounding [17][19]. - **PTA**: In late October, Dushan Energy's 270 - million - ton/year new PTA plant was put into production. The monthly average operating rate increased slightly, and the social inventory continued to decline. The spot processing fee was very poor, falling below 100 yuan/ton [20][21]. - **MEG**: Shandong Yulong Petrochemical's 80 - million - ton/year ethylene glycol plant was put into production in October. The comprehensive operating rate reached a new high this year, and the port inventory increased. The price performance was relatively weak [24]. - **Short Fiber**: The operating rate decreased slightly in late October. The demand was expected to remain weak, and the spot processing fee was generally acceptable. The price first fell and then rebounded, with a slight cumulative decline [27][29]. - **Bottle Chips**: The operating rate rebounded from a low level and then stabilized in October. The domestic demand decreased month - on - month, and the export declined from August to September. The spot processing fee fluctuated little, and the price increased slightly cumulatively [31]. 2. OPEC+ Continues to Increase Crude Oil Production - **Supply Surplus Expectation Intensifies**: In October, eight OPEC member countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, with a cumulative increase of 2.74 million barrels per day. EIA continuously raised the global crude oil production forecast, and the supply surplus expectation intensified. Although the demand decreased seasonally, with the impact of the Fed's interest rate cut and other factors, the international crude oil price rebounded after a decline, with a small cumulative decline [33]. - **Demand Will Seasonally Recover**: The Fed's interest rate cuts may boost demand. The process of the seasonal decline in crude oil demand has basically been completed, and it will gradually recover from November to December [39][48]. 3. The Anti - Involution Narrative Resurfaces - **PTA New Plant Commissioning**: In October, Dushan Energy's 270 - million - ton/year new PTA plant was put into production. The PTA processing fee was extremely low, which attracted the attention of the competent department. Anti - involution may lead to an active contraction of the supply side [51][63]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply Tends to Be Loose**: The ethylene glycol operating rate remained at a high level in October, and the supply tended to be loose. The profit of coal - based ethylene glycol declined continuously from August to October [64][68]. 4. Demand Is Better Than Expected but Still at Risk of Decline - **Polyester Operating Rate Rises Steadily**: In October, the polyester and loom operating rates increased slightly, showing the characteristic of "no off - season in the off - season". From January to September, the growth of polyester production mainly came from bottle chips, which drove the increase in the consumption of PTA and ethylene glycol [71][75]. - **PTA De - stocks and Ethylene Glycol Accumulates Stocks**: PTA social inventory continued to decline in October, while ethylene glycol port inventory increased. There is a risk of inventory accumulation due to the expected decline in demand [76][80]. - **Polyester Profits Are Still Under Pressure**: In October, polyester profits first increased and then decreased. The spot processing fee of short fibers was at a relatively high level, and the profit of bottle chips was expected to improve [81][83]. - **Stable Export of Filament and Gradual Recovery of Bottle Chip Export**: From January to September, the exports of filament, bottle chips, and short fibers increased year - on - year. The export of bottle chips had the largest scale and increment, but there was a large pressure of year - on - year decline in single - month exports in the later stage [86][89]. - **Risk of Lagging Decline in Demand**: Although the demand in October was better than expected, there is still a risk of a lagging decline. The operating rates of pure polyester yarn and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms are expected to decline in the later stage [95][98]. 5. Domestic Demand for Textile and Apparel Improves Month - on - Month, but Exports Face Downward Pressure - **Domestic Demand for Textile and Apparel Improves Gradually**: In 2025, the growth rate of domestic consumption of textile and apparel was not high, but it improved month - on - month. The peak season is mainly in the second half of the year, and attention should be paid to the consumption situation in the fourth quarter [104][105]. - **Textile and Apparel Exports May Recover from a Low Level**: From January to September, the cumulative export of textile and apparel decreased year - on - year. In October, Sino - US trade relations are expected to ease, which is conducive to the recovery of textile and apparel exports [108][109]. 6. Summary and Outlook - **Summary**: In October, OPEC+ continued to increase production, and the international crude oil price first fell and then rebounded. The prices of polyester industry chain products also showed a similar trend, with better performance than crude oil. The supply and demand of the polyester industry chain increased in October, but the profits were still not ideal [110][112]. - **Outlook**: From November to December, the international crude oil market has both positive and negative factors. The supply of the polyester industry chain is expected to contract along with the decline in demand. The profits of upstream and mid - stream products such as PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol are expected to improve [113].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upstream US crude oil inventory has increased for three consecutive weeks, geopolitical conflicts have fluctuating impacts, and there is no definite upward driver for oil prices. The medium - to - long - term expectation of crude oil surplus is hard to be falsified, resulting in insufficient cost support for PX and PTA [7]. - For each product in the polyester industry chain, there are different supply - demand situations and profit trends. For example, PX has a high - level profit and high - level operation expected in the fourth quarter, while PTA has a risk of inventory accumulation, and MEG's supply - demand is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter [7]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **PX&PTA**: Upstream, oil price lacks upward drive, PX&PTA cost support is insufficient. PX has a back - structured spot floating price with changing monthly spreads, and its supply is abundant. PTA's social inventory has been rising, and there is a risk of further inventory accumulation. Trading strategies include going short at high prices, PTA15 reverse arbitrage, and option watching [7]. - **MEG**: After the holiday, port inventory increased significantly. Supply is expected to decrease in the second half of the month. Trading strategies are going short at high prices, watching for arbitrage, and selling call options [7]. - **PF**: Short - fiber factory inventory has no pressure, and processing fees are slightly stronger. However, future demand lacks effective support. Trading strategies are going short at high prices, going long on processing fees, and option watching [7]. - **PR**: Bottle - chip processing fees are slightly stronger, but downstream demand may weaken. Trading strategies are going short at high prices, watching for arbitrage, and option watching [7]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis 2.1 Polyester - After the holiday, polyester's operation is stable, raw material prices fall, and processing fees rise slightly. Downstream transactions are okay, and there is support for replenishment demand [10]. - The start - up rate of polyester downstream in Jiangsu and Zhejiang first decreased and then increased after the holiday. The comprehensive start - up rates of texturing, weaving, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are 80%, 69%, and 78% respectively, with the latter two remaining unchanged week - on - week [12]. - The sales of polyester filament after the holiday are weak, and inventory has increased. The average inventory days of polyester filament after the holiday are 24.3 days, an increase of 5.1 days compared to before the holiday [15]. - The low - price transactions of polyester bottle - chips after the holiday are okay, and processing fees are slightly stronger. However, downstream demand may shift from peak to off - peak [19]. - The supply of short - fiber has decreased and demand has increased, and factory inventory has no pressure. But future demand may lack support [22]. 2.2 PX - After the holiday, PX's spot floating price has a back structure, and the monthly spread first widened and then narrowed [23]. - The naphtha cracking spread has weakened, and the profit of long - process PX devices has strengthened. PX's operation rate has slightly decreased this week, and it is expected to first increase and then decrease in Asia this month. The operation rate will remain high in the fourth quarter [25][27]. 2.3 PTA - Since late September, PTA's social inventory has been rising, and the basis and monthly spread remain weak [29]. - This week, the operation rate of PTA has increased. New devices are planned to be put into operation, and some devices are planned for maintenance. PTA's processing fee is undervalued [33]. 2.4 Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - After the holiday, MEG's port inventory has increased significantly. Recently, the arrival of goods at the port has decreased, and the basis has strengthened in the second half of the week [34]. - The supply of MEG is expected to decrease in the second half of the month due to device maintenance [36]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking 3.1 PX - Price: The prices of PX and its related products in the industrial chain are presented, including PX, naphtha, etc. [47][48]. - Spreads and Profits: There are various spreads and profit data, such as PX - naphtha spreads, disproportionation - blending oil spreads and profits [50][54]. - Supply and Demand: The operating rates of PX in China and Asia are provided, along with the relationship between PX supply and demand [60][61]. 3.2 PTA - Price: The prices of PTA and PX, as well as PTA's processing fees and internal - external spreads are shown [69][70]. - Spreads: The basis and monthly spreads of PTA are presented [73]. - Profits: The profits of PTA in different cost - calculation methods are provided [75]. - Supply and Demand: The operating rates of PTA and polyester are given, along with PTA's inventory situation [79][81]. 3.3 MEG - Price: The prices of MEG and its related raw materials are presented [83]. - Spreads: There are various spreads of MEG, such as internal - external spreads, regional spreads [85][89]. - Profits: The profits of MEG in different production methods are provided [94]. - Supply and Demand: The operating rate of MEG and its port inventory are given [100][102]. 3.4 Polyester - Profits: The weighted profit of polyester, the average profit of filament, short - fiber profit, etc. are provided [105]. - Supply: The operating rates of polyester, bottle - chip, filament, and short - fiber are given [107]. - Inventory: The inventory days of filament, short - fiber, etc. are provided [109]. - Demand: The operating rates of dyeing, weaving, and texturing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, as well as export data and domestic consumption data are presented [112][120]