——全球股市立体投资策略周报 10 月第 3 期 本报告导读： 上周全球权益市场普涨，中国股市领涨。结构上科技板块反弹，能源/工业板块亦有 亮点。资金面上，联邦政府停摆或结束、通胀数据披露，市场加速押注联储 10 月降 息。基本面上，美国财报季科技盈利预期上修，主要市场景气预期均回升。 投资要点： 中美贸易缓和预期下中国股市领涨全球 券 研 究 报 告 策 略 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 海 外 策 略 研 究 证 策略研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.10.27 不确定性。 2025-10-28 [Table_Summary] 市场表现：上周全球权益市场普涨。股市方面，MSCI 全球+1.9%， 其中 MSCI 发达市场+1.9%、MSCI 新兴市场+2.2%。债市方面，法德 10Y 国债利率大幅上升。大宗方面，原油涨跌幅居前，银价涨跌幅 靠后。汇率方面，美元升，英镑贬，日元贬，人民币平。分板块看， 上周全球科技、能源、工业板块均有所表现。 交投情绪：上周全球成交普遍缩量，VIX 指数快速回落。从成交看， 上周上证、恒指、标普 500、欧洲 Stoxx50、韩国 Kospi200 成 ...

成份股方面，三家大型公司的股价悉数下跌，其中，PT Barito Renewables Energy Tbk（BREN）下跌14.99%，PT Bank Central Asia Tbk（BBCA）下跌 0.91%，PT Dian Swastatika Sentosa Tbk（DSSA）下跌12.12%。 据媒体报道，引发印尼股市周一暴跌的主要原因是明晟公司的咨询报告。该报告正在考虑调整如何计算MSCI印尼指数成份股的自由流通量。 周一（10月27日），印尼股市盘中创下6个多月来的最大跌幅。来自指数编制公司明晟（MSCI）的一份文件引发了对印尼股票权重可能调整的担忧。 周一开盘后，印尼综合指数持续下跌，最大跌幅3.8%；MSCI印尼指数下跌2.52%。 公开资料显示，明晟公司是一家提供全球指数及相关衍生金融产品标的的国际公司，其推出的MSCI指数广为投资人参考，全球的投资专业人士，包括投资组 合经理、经纪交易商、交易所、投资顾问、学者及金融媒体均会使用 MSCI指数。MSCI指数是全球投资组合经理中最多采用的投资标的。数据显示，截至 2024年12月31日，以MSCI指数为基准的资产管理规模约为16.9万亿美 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年10月26日 港股市场速览 优于大市 市场整体回升，互联网板块领先 股价表现：整体回升，科技涨幅领先 本周，恒生指数+3.6%，恒生综指+3.6%。风格方面，大盘（恒生大型股+4.0%） ＞中盘（恒生中型股+2.1%）＞小盘（恒生小型股+1.2%）。 主要概念指数分化较大，表现较优的是：恒生互联网（+5.9%）；表现较弱 的是：恒生生物科技（-0.9%）。 国信海外选股策略均有所上涨，涨幅较领先的是 ROE 策略全天候型（+6.2%）。 25 个行业上涨，5 个行业下跌。涨幅居前的行业有：石油石化（+7.3%）、 机械（+6.8%）、商贸零售（+6.6%）、纺织服装（+5.4%）、消费者服务（+5.3%）； 下跌的行业有：综合（-2.1%）、基础化工（-1.9%）、医药（-1.4%）、钢 铁（-1.2%）、轻工制造（-0.2%）。 估值水平：整体回升至较高水平 本周，恒生指数估值（动态预期 12 个月正数市盈率，后同）+3.4%至 12.1x； 恒生综指估值+2.8%至 12.1x。 主要概念指数中，估值上升幅度较大的是恒生互联网（+5.9%至 19.0x）；估 值下降幅度较大的是 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年10月25日 港股精选组合绩效回顾 本周，港股精选组合绝对收益 1.90%，相对恒生指数超额收益-1.71%。 本年，港股精选组合绝对收益 69.75%，相对恒生指数超额收益 39.34%。 港股市场创新高热点板块跟踪 我们根据分析师关注度、股价相对强弱、股价路径平稳性、创新高连续性等 角度在过去 20 个交易日创出过 250 日新高的股票池中筛选出平稳创新高股 票。 近期，中国人民保险集团等股票平稳创出新高。 **Acknowledgement** I am grateful to my supervisor, who has been a great advisor of my supervisor, who has been a great advisor of my supervisor. 核心观点 金融工程周报 按照板块来看，创新高股票数量最多的是周期板块，其次为科技、消费、大 金融、制造和医药板块，具体个股信息可参照正文。 港股市场一周回顾 宽基指数方面，本周恒生科技指数收益最高，累计收益 5.20%；恒生小型股 指数收益最低，累计收益 1.21%。 行业指数方面，本周 ...

韩国政府正优先协商投资方案的平衡构成，可能涉及直接投资、贷款和担保的组合。 报道称，具润哲表示，是否需要货币互换以及互换规模，将完全取决于协议的最终架构。"可能完全不 需要，或者可以小规模安排，"他补充道。 分析人士认为，这一协议的最终结构将为其他经济体树立样板。继日韩之后，特朗普政府可能向欧洲和 中东盟友提出类似要求。但据华尔街日报评论文章称，这些"政府对政府"的投资承诺规模之大令其可 行性存疑，且绕过国会拨款程序，将数千亿美元交由总统自由支配，引发美国国内对权力制衡的质疑。 投资结构取代货币互换成核心议题 美韩两国正加速推进3500亿美元投资协议谈判，焦点已转向投资结构设计，而非韩国此前担忧的货币互 换问题。这一"政府对政府"的创纪录投资承诺，连同此前日本的5500亿美元协议，预计将在特朗普下周 出席亚太经合组织(APEC)峰会期间敲定。 10月22日，据彭博报道，韩国财政部长具润哲（Koo Yun Cheol）当天接受彭博电视采访时表示，美国 财政部长贝森特已充分理解韩国外汇市场面临的困难，正就如何应对这一局面进行内部讨论。华盛顿官 员现已认识到，首尔"预先"部署资金可能对韩国外汇市场造成冲击。 此番表 ...

Core Insights - The report by Grant Thornton (Hong Kong) indicates an improvement in ESG reporting among large listed companies in Hong Kong, particularly in climate-related disclosures and green finance, although many companies remain unprepared [1][2][3] ESG Reporting and Compliance - In 2024, 95% of large Hang Seng Index constituent companies disclosed climate-related risks, a 6% increase from 2023 [2] - Only 10% of companies are fully prepared to provide comprehensive disclosures with accurate quantitative data, adhering to recognized frameworks and third-party verification [1][2] - 41% of large companies are inadequately prepared for new ESG disclosure regulations, raising concerns about vague disclosures and insufficient information, especially in risk management and climate goals [1][2] Green Finance Developments - Ten large Hang Seng Index companies reported green financing exceeding HKD 50 billion in 2024, a 20% increase from the previous year, indicating rapid maturation in Hong Kong's sustainable finance sector [3] - 39% of large companies mentioned green finance tools in their ESG reports, a 3% increase year-on-year [3] - 78% of green finance issuance in 2024 exceeded HKD 10 billion, reflecting a growing market momentum and the importance of sustainable capital allocation in high-carbon, capital-intensive industries [4] Technology and Data Management - Over half (58%) of large Hang Seng Index companies reported deploying or planning to deploy AI technology to enhance the accuracy of ESG data collection and reporting [1][5] - 92% of companies emphasized cybersecurity in their ESG reports, a significant 10% increase from 2023 [5] - Only 69% of companies disclosed AI-related training or IT skill enhancement plans, highlighting a significant gap in aligning AI applications with emerging global standards [5][6] Future Outlook and Recommendations - Companies are urged to shift focus from the quantity of ESG reporting to the quality, including investing in robust data systems and independent verification [6] - The upcoming mandatory climate disclosure regulations necessitate that Hong Kong listed companies accelerate their ESG transformation efforts [6]

惩罚性关税重创印度贸易 美国实施的严厉关税措施已对印度出口造成了冲击。 根据研究机构GTRI发布的一份报告，自5月份以来，印度对美出口已连续四个月下滑。数据显示，今年 9月份，印度对美出口额降至55亿美元，环比暴跌20.3%。自5月的88亿美元峰值以来，月度贸易额已蒸 发超过33亿美元。 印度正与美国接近达成一项悬而未决的贸易协议，可能将印度出口关税从惩罚性的50%大幅降至15- 16%。 10月21日，据印媒mint援引知情人士透露，印度与美国接近敲定一项贸易协议。根据该协议，目前针对 印度出口商品高达50%的惩罚性关税，有望大幅削减至15%-16%。 作为谈判的关键筹码，能源与农业成为核心议题。mint报道指出，印度方面或同意逐步减少从俄罗斯进 口的石油，以换取美方的关税让步。 此前据印度时报报道，该贸易协议的第一阶段成果预计将于10月至11月间敲定。协议的目标是在2030年 前，将双边贸易额增加至5000亿美元。 今年9月印度对美出口已因高关税而急剧下滑。与此同时，特朗普总统再次对印度发出警告，将其能源 政策与贸易关税紧密挂钩，使得达成协议的需求对印度而言变得更为迫切。 对此，印度方面做出了强硬驳斥。印 ...

Group 1: Market Performance Review - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant decline due to renewed US-China trade tensions and profit-taking after previous gains, with the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Tech Index, and Hang Seng Composite Index dropping by -4.11%, -3.97%, and -7.98% respectively [3][10][13] - Defensive sectors such as utilities and telecommunications showed resilience, while previously high-performing sectors like technology and healthcare faced substantial corrections [3][10][13] Group 2: Market Valuation Levels - As of the end of the week, the 5-year PE (TTM) valuation percentile for the Hang Seng Composite Index stood at 81.45%, indicating that the valuation level is close to one standard deviation above the 5-year average [3] Group 3: Market Macro Environment - The macroeconomic environment shows weak inflation in September, with CPI down by 0.3% year-on-year, while PPI decreased by 2.3% [37][43] - The central bank's monetary policy remains supportive, with a focus on enhancing domestic demand and stabilizing growth through proactive measures [37][43] Group 4: Fund Flow Analysis - Southbound capital showed strong buying interest, with a net inflow of 45.089 billion HKD, marking a new high in five weeks and maintaining a streak of 22 consecutive weeks of net inflows [43] - The top net buying companies included Pop Mart, Xiaomi, and China Mobile, indicating a preference for consumer discretionary and technology sectors [32] Group 5: Sector Allocation Outlook - The report favors sectors that are relatively prosperous and benefit from policy support, such as automotive, new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and technology [3][43] - Low-valuation state-owned enterprises and local Hong Kong banks, telecommunications, and utility stocks are also highlighted as stable performers benefiting from the interest rate cut cycle [3][43]

Core Insights - The 2025 Sustainable Global Leaders Conference was held from October 16 to 18, focusing on "Facing Challenges Together: Global Action, Innovation, and Sustainable Growth" [2] - The conference gathered global leaders and experts to explore new paths for sustainable development and inject "Chinese momentum" into global governance [2] Group 1: International Cooperation and Global Prosperity - China has made significant achievements in energy transition over the past five years, with rapid expansion in wind and solar power capacity, reducing reliance on fossil fuels [3] - The global development and prosperity are seen as a shared future, necessitating solutions for the challenges faced by humanity [5] Group 2: Climate Change and ESG - The global ESG-related assets are projected to reach $40 trillion by 2030, yet there has been a regression in achieving sustainable development goals despite widespread commitments [7] - The current environmental, social, and governance (ESG) risks are increasingly recognized as financial risks, impacting supply chains and market volatility [95] Group 3: Energy Transition and Challenges - China's energy transition opportunities lie in the rapid development of renewable energy, with a target of 3600 GW installed capacity by 2035, doubling from the current 1700 GW [21] - The challenge remains in balancing the rapid growth of renewable energy with energy security and stability [19][23] Group 4: Industrial and Technological Innovations - The role of technology and innovation in addressing social and economic challenges is widely acknowledged, particularly in the context of sustainable development [9] - The manufacturing sector must achieve breakthroughs in green products to meet carbon peak and neutrality goals by 2030 and 2060, respectively [25] Group 5: Education and Talent Development - There is a pressing need for talent development in the ESG industry to support sustainable transformation [41] - Educational institutions are encouraged to integrate sustainability deeply into their curricula to cultivate interdisciplinary talents capable of addressing complex global challenges [84][90] Group 6: Global Collaboration and Trade - China is recognized as a key player in the global green transition, with significant efforts needed in the Asia-Pacific region to scale up initiatives and combat climate change [50][93] - The interconnectedness of climate change, AI governance, and international cooperation is emphasized as essential for addressing global challenges [48]

Core Insights - The Henan provincial state-owned enterprise (SOE) reform has achieved significant progress during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with Zhengzhou leading in implementation and results among provincial cities [1][2][3] Group 1: Economic Performance - As of the end of 2024, the total assets of provincial and municipal SOEs reached 7.3 trillion yuan, with net assets of 2.3 trillion yuan, marking increases of 84% and 104.8% respectively since the end of 2020 [2] - Provincial SOEs are projected to generate over 700 billion yuan in revenue and 23.6 billion yuan in profit in 2024, reflecting growth of 33.3% and 191.5% compared to 2020 [2] Group 2: Social Impact - Zhengzhou's SOE system has made notable advancements in public service, including the operation of a rail transit system ranking tenth nationally, construction of power plants benefiting over one million residents, and the establishment of 12 high schools adding over 20,000 student places [3][4] - The city has invested 826.33 billion yuan in 71 livelihood projects, including waste treatment facilities and water supply systems [3] Group 3: Regulatory Improvements - The province has enhanced regulatory efficiency by establishing specialized committees for decision-making, strategic investment, and risk control, and has implemented a smart regulatory framework for better oversight [4][6] - A new regulatory mechanism has been introduced to improve collaboration across departments, transforming the oversight model from fragmented to cohesive [4] Group 4: Industrial Development - The province is focusing on modernizing its industrial structure by concentrating state capital in key sectors, resulting in the strategic restructuring of 19 provincial SOEs and the establishment of specialized subsidiaries in emerging industries [5][6] - In 2024, revenue from new strategic industries is expected to reach 902 billion yuan, with a 5.7 percentage point increase compared to the end of 2023 [5] Group 5: Innovation and R&D - R&D investment by provincial SOEs has seen an annual growth rate of 19.3% from 2021 to 2024, with total R&D expenditure reaching 10.963 billion yuan, doubling since 2020 [8][9] - The province has established over 250 high-level innovation platforms and has been involved in significant technological projects, achieving numerous original research outcomes [9]