天风证券表示，今年夏季我国大部地区气温较常年同期要偏高，多地体感温度冲上40℃，有望带动啤酒消费。我们认为，中长期看，随着后续促消费政策落 地以及禁酒令的纠偏，进而带动啤酒&饮料销量、升级修复。 规模方面，主要消费ETF近1周规模增长112.25万元，实现显著增长，新增规模位居可比基金2/5。 截至7月10日，主要消费ETF近1年净值上涨5.19%。从收益能力看，截至2025年7月10日，主要消费ETF自成立以来，最高单月回报为24.35%，最长连涨月数 为4个月，最长连涨涨幅为5.70%，上涨月份平均收益率为4.87%。截至2025年7月10日，主要消费ETF近3个月超越基准年化收益为4.95%。 回撤方面，截至2025年7月10日，主要消费ETF今年以来最大回撤6.82%，相对基准回撤0.34%。 费率方面，主要消费ETF管理费率为0.50%，托管费率为0.10%，费率在可比基金中最低。 从估值层面来看，主要消费ETF跟踪的中证主要消费指数最新市盈率（PE-TTM）仅18.86倍，处于近1年7.51%的分位，即估值低于近1年92.49%以上的时 间，处于历史低位。 主要消费ETF紧密跟踪中证主要消费指数， ...

Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for June 2025 is 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[4] - In June, 11 out of 21 surveyed industries are in the expansion zone, an increase of 4 industries compared to last month[6] - Large enterprises' PMI is 51.2%, up 0.5 percentage points, while small enterprises' PMI is 47.3%, down 2.0 percentage points[11] Supply and Demand - The production index and new orders index are at 51.0% and 50.2%, respectively, both showing increases of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points[15] - The supply and demand index has rebounded, aligning with seasonal trends, with certain industries like food and beverage showing expansion[15] - Non-metal mineral products and black metal smelting industries continue to contract due to insufficient end demand from the real estate sector[15] Price Index and Procurement - The main raw material purchase price index and factory price index are at 48.4% and 46.2%, both rising by 1.5 percentage points[20] - The procurement index has increased to 50.2%, up 2.6 percentage points, indicating a rise in enterprise procurement activity[21] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The service sector's business activity index is at 50.1%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points, indicating stability[24] - The construction sector's business activity index is 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points, showing a seasonal rebound but with notable sub-sector differentiation[26] Risks - External disturbances and changes in real estate demand pose risks to the overall economic outlook[30]

供需整体回升，行业分化。 6 月供需指数回升，符合季节性规律。从行业看，食品及酒饮料精制茶、专用 设备等行业的供需指数位于扩张区间。究其原因，一方面，关税摩擦缓和后，出口链在供需端逐步恢复。 另一方面，积极财政发力，设备更新政策效果持续释放。相比之下，非金属矿物制品、黑色金属冶炼及压 延加工等行业的供需指数继续收缩。主因或在于，房地产压力之下，终端需求不足。这一点价格指数也有 所体现。 6 月制造业价格指数回升，主要受中东局势紧张，油价飙升的推动。而黑色冶炼行业的价格指数 持续回落。 非制造业景气度：服务平稳，建筑分化。 服务业的商务活动指数略降，基本保持平稳。从行业看，邮政、 电信广播电视及卫星传输服务、互联网软件及信息技术服务等生产性行业的商务活动指数位于较高景气区 间；但是五一假期效应消退后，零售、道路运输、航空运输、住宿、餐饮、房地产等行业商务活动指数均 低于临界点。此外，建筑业景气度超季节性回升，子行业的分化值得关注。一方面，土木工程建筑业商务 活动连续三个月处于较高景气区间。另一方面，商品房需求在二季度较为疲软，可能对整体建筑业景气度 有所拖累。 政策或不断积极。 在关税摩擦缓和后，内部解决好低通 ...

Core Insights - The manufacturing PMI for June is at 49.7%, indicating a slight expansion in the manufacturing sector, with 11 out of 21 surveyed industries in the expansion zone, an increase of 4 from the previous month [2][3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.5%, showing continued expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [4][6] - The comprehensive PMI output index is at 50.7%, reflecting an overall acceleration in production and business activities [6] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI increased to 49.7%, with production and new orders indices at 51.0% and 50.2%, respectively, indicating improved production activities and market demand [2][3] - The purchasing volume index rose to 50.2%, up by 2.6 percentage points, suggesting enhanced procurement willingness among enterprises [2] - Price indices for major raw materials and factory prices improved, with indices at 48.4% and 46.2%, respectively, influenced by rising international oil prices [2] Key Industries - Key industries such as equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods continue to expand, with PMIs at 51.4%, 50.9%, and 50.4%, respectively [3] - The construction sector shows a significant recovery, with the business activity index at 52.8%, indicating robust infrastructure project progress [4][5] Market Expectations - The service sector's business activity expectation index is at 56.0%, indicating optimism among service enterprises regarding future development [5] - The construction industry's business activity expectation index rose to 53.9%, reflecting increased confidence among construction firms [5] Overall Economic Outlook - The overall economic activity is expected to improve as policy effects continue to manifest, with investment and consumption-related demands likely to be released [7]

三大重点行业继续扩张。装备制造业、高技术制造业和消费品行业PMI分别为51.4%、50.9%和50.4%， 均连续两个月位于扩张区间。其中，装备制造业生产指数和新订单指数均高于53.0%，相关行业产需两 端较为活跃。高耗能行业PMI为47.8%，比上月上升0.8个百分点，景气水平有所改善。 产需指数均位于扩张区间。生产指数和新订单指数分别为51.0%和50.2%，比上月上升0.3和0.4个百分 点，制造业生产活动加快，市场需求有所改善。从行业看，食品及酒饮料精制茶、专用设备等行业生产 指数和新订单指数连续两个月位于扩张区间，相关行业产需释放较快；非金属矿物制品、黑色金属冶炼 及压延加工等行业两个指数继续低于临界点，市场活跃度仍显不足。在产需回升的带动下，企业采购意 愿增强，采购量指数为50.2%，比上月上升2.6个百分点。 价格指数回升。主要原材料购进价格指数和出厂价格指数分别为48.4%和46.2%，均比上月上升1.5个百 分点，制造业市场价格总体水平有所改善。从行业看，受近期国际原油价格上涨等因素影响，石油煤炭 及其他燃料加工业主要原材料购进价格指数和出厂价格指数明显回升；此外，由于铁矿石等原材料价格 继 ...

6 月份制造业采购经理指数继续回升 非制造业商务活动指数扩张有所加快 6 月份，制造业 PMI 升至 49.7% ，在调查的 21 个行业中有 11 个位于扩张区间，比 上月增加 4 个，制造业景气面有所扩大。 （一）产需指数均位于扩张区间。生产指数和新订单指数分别为 51.0% 和 50.2% ，比 上月上升 0.3 和 0.4 个百分点，制造业生产活动加快，市场需求有所改善。从行业看，食品 及酒饮料精制茶、专用设备等行业生产指数和新订单指数连续两个月位于扩张区间，相关行 业产需释放较快；非金属矿物制品、黑色金属冶炼及压延加工等行业两个指数继续低于临界 点，市场活跃度仍显不足。在产需回升的带动下，企业采购意愿增强，采购量指数为 50.2% ，比上月上升 2.6 个百分点。 （二）价格指数回升。主要原材料购进价格指数和出厂价格指数分别为 48.4% 和 46.2% ，均比上月上升 1.5 个百分点，制造业市场价格总体水平有所改善。从行业看，受近 期国际原油价格上涨等因素影响，石油煤炭及其他燃料加工业主要原材料购进价格指数和出 厂价格指数明显回升；此外，由于铁矿石等原材料价格继续下行及终端需求不足，黑色金属 冶 ...

6 月份， 制造业采购经理指数（ PMI ）为 49.7% ，比上月上升 0.2 个百分点，制造业景气 水平继续改善。 从企业规模看，大型企业 PMI 为 51.2% ，比上月上升 0.5 个百分点，高于临界点；中型企 业 PMI 为 48.6% ，比上月上升 1.1 个百分点，低于临界点；小型企业 PMI 为 47.3% ，比 上月下降 2.0 个百分点，低于临界点。 从分类指数看，在构成制造业 PMI 的 5 个分类指数中，生产指数、新订单指数和供应商配送 时间指数均高于临界点，原材料库存指数和从业人员指数低于临界点。 来源：统计微讯 【数据发布】2025年6月中国采购经理指数运行情况 国家统计局服务业调查中心 中国物流与采购联合会 一、中国制造业采购经理指数运行情况 生产指数为 51.0% ，比上月上升 0.3 个百分点，表明制造业企业生产活动加快。 新订单指数为 50.2% ，比上月上升 0.4 个百分点，表明制造业市场需求有所改善。 原材料库存指数为 48.0% ，比上月上升 0.6 个百分点，低于临界点，表明制造业主要原材 料库存量降幅继续收窄。 从业人员指数为 47.9% ，比上月下降 0.2 ...

食品丨市场观察 -"精酿+茶"如何搅动酒饮市场？ -中式养生水赛道拥挤，激战4.5亿市场； -中国预制菜行业竞争格局。 行业 环境 1.微醺经济新势力："精酿 + 茶"如何搅动酒饮市场？ 关键词 ： 微醺经济,精酿啤酒,新中式茶啤,酒饮赛道,消费场景 概要 ： "微醺经济"推动酒饮创新，新中式茶啤成精酿细分亮点，融合中国茶元素吸引消费者。 2011至2021年国内精酿市场从33亿增至428亿，预计2030年破2000亿。茶啤兼具性价比与场景 多样性，但面临标准缺失、同质化及侵权争议等问题，需强化品类认知与用户教育释放潜力。 本周看点： 2.中国牛奶巧克力市场消费分析及销售前景预测报告2025-2031年 关键词 ： 牛奶巧克力,市场分析,消费趋势,销售预测,全球供需 概要 ： 这份报告分析了2019-2031年全球及中国牛奶巧克力市场的现状与趋势，从产品类型 （坚果、经典等）、销售渠道（超市、线上等）、供需情况、竞争格局等方面展开。中国在全 球市场中地位重要，产能持续上升。报告还研究了北美、欧洲、亚太等地市场表现，并分析了 Mondelēz、Mars等主要厂商的市场份额与动态。行业受政策、需求和技术驱动，未来 ...

Industry Overview - The Chinese alcoholic beverage market is nearing 2 trillion yuan, with an expected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.1% from 2025 to 2030, reaching 1.86 trillion yuan [1][21][22] - Baijiu remains the core category, maintaining a market share of 65%-68%, with projected sales revenue of 950 billion yuan by 2025 [1][26] - The beer market is experiencing a trend towards premiumization and craft brewing, with a production volume of 35.687 million kiloliters in 2022, showing a 1.1% year-on-year increase [1][28] Market Segmentation - The production capacity and revenue of sauce-flavored baijiu are expected to reach 1.1 million kiloliters and 250 billion yuan, respectively [1] - The wine market is stabilizing after facing import pressures, with domestic wine quality improvements driving structural adjustments [1] - Emerging low-alcohol beverages, such as pre-mixed cocktails, are expected to grow at an average annual rate of 12.3% from 2025 to 2030, driven by female consumers and Generation Z [1] Consumer Characteristics - The primary consumer demographic consists of individuals born in the 1980s and 1990s, with a notable increase in demand for low-alcohol beverages among women [1][32] - Online sales channels, particularly live-streaming e-commerce, are experiencing rapid growth, with a 210% year-on-year increase in gross merchandise value (GMV) for alcoholic beverages in Q1 2025 [1] - Consumers are increasingly focused on quality, taste, and packaging, with a rising market share for low-sugar and low-alcohol products, projected to reach 22% by 2025 [1] Competitive Landscape - Leading companies like Moutai and Wuliangye dominate the high-end market through cultural marketing and product diversification [2] - Regional brands focus on local market penetration, while emerging brands leverage innovative products and online marketing to attract younger consumers [2] - The industry is shifting from price competition to brand and channel differentiation, with a focus on offline channel depth for leading companies and online and instant retail for new brands [2] Technological Innovations - Trends include intelligent brewing, green processes, and blockchain traceability, with Moutai achieving a 65% digitalization rate in its channels [2] - The penetration rate of online alcohol sales reached 32% in 2023, with live-streaming e-commerce sales increasing by 87% year-on-year [2] Policy Environment - Tax adjustments and environmental regulations are prompting companies to transition towards standardization and sustainability, with smaller enterprises facing cost pressures [2]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 05 11 年 月 日 食品饮料 周观点：统一 Q1 盈利亮眼，把握结构性α 投资建议：1、白酒：强化内功，蓄力改善，中长期配置价值凸显，建议关注"优 势龙头、红利延续、强势复苏"三条主线：1）优势龙头，头部酒企份额持续提升： 贵州茅台、五粮液、山西汾酒、古井贡酒；2）红利延续，高确定性区域酒：迎驾 贡酒（洞藏大单品红利）、今世缘（江苏格局红利）等；3）强势复苏，弹性标的： 泸州老窖、水井坊、舍得酒业、老白干酒、港股珍酒李渡、酒鬼酒等。2、大众品： 青啤收购即墨黄酒，统一 25Q1 业绩亮眼，端午魔芋粽上新，大众品结构性α显 著，建议寻找强复苏与高成长两条主线：1）政策受益或复苏改善：青岛啤酒、海 天味业、新乳业、伊利股份、重庆啤酒、安琪酵母、仙乐健康、安井食品、立高食 品等，港股 H&H 国际控股等；2）高景气度或成长逻辑：盐津铺子、东鹏饮料、 燕京啤酒、珠江啤酒、三只松鼠、百润股份、有友食品等，港股农夫山泉、华润饮 料、卫龙美味等。 白酒：强化内功，蓄力改善。白酒板块从业绩窗口期进入动销淡季，在行业整体环 比降速、逐步释压的背景下，各家酒企聚 ...