全球铜市场正经历供应链有史以来最紧张的时期，矿商与冶炼厂的激烈博弈、美国关税预期引发的供应 错配以及创纪录的金属溢价，共同推动铜价突破新高。 美东时间28日周五美股早盘时段，伦敦金属交易所（LME）的期铜交易价涨至11210美元/吨附近，创盘 中历史新高，日内涨幅扩大到2.5%。若收盘涨幅保持在2.2%左右，有望刷新一个月前所创的收盘最高 纪录。这是继10月29日创下收盘纪录后，铜价再度突破关键阻力位。 伦铜创新高正逢铜供应极度吃紧。据周五稍早媒体报道，本周在上海举行的行业会议上，矿商与冶炼厂 围绕加工费展开激烈谈判，矿商施压要求冶炼厂接受创纪录低位的加工费基准，而运往中国的精炼铜年 度溢价则跳升至历史新高。 Mercuria Energy Group金属研究负责人Nicholas Snowdon在会议期间表示，"这是铜供应链历史性的紧张 时刻"。供需失衡、特朗普贸易政策的不确定性等因素，共同推动了这场市场动荡。 报道称，价格谈判的激烈程度异乎寻常。德国铜冶炼商Aurubis AG的高管表示准备拒绝过低的年度加工 费基准，并对"负加工费"——即冶炼厂实际上要向矿商付费处理原材料——表达不满。中国主要金属行 业 ...

对于铜价，新湖期货表示，本周降息预期升温，宏观情绪好转，叠加铜供需偏紧的基本面，铜价偏强运 行。近期铜价回落提振国内消费，国内库存小幅去化；LME库存虽有所累库，但库存绝对量偏低，全 球非美市场铜库存整体亦处于低位，低库存给予铜价向上弹性。 现货市场采销氛围一般。市场上货源相对有限，升水继续支撑上行，铜价走势震荡偏强，下游消费亦无 亮点，周末前按需补库。今日好铜稀少升水坚挺，平水铜部分品牌维持较大价差，鲁方祥光等部分报价 最高接近百元水平，中条山ISA报价站稳平水上方小幅升水，湿法铜报价稀少，非注册听闻在贴180上 下。 （文华综合 编辑：孙榕） 沪铜早间小幅低开，随后持续走强，收盘上涨0.41%。最近美联储降息预期较强，宏观氛围偏暖，铜市 供应端存在支撑，国内社库也有回落，铜价继续偏强震荡。 日本矿业协会（JMIA）负责人周四表示，日本铜冶炼厂正在和全球矿产商就2026年加工精炼费(TC/RC) 进行谈判，寻求达成与中国设定的基准不同的协议。临近年底，各国冶炼商和矿商对于明年长单加工费 的谈判正在进行当中，当前的现货加工费极低，部分冶炼厂认为当前加工费已触及自身承受的底线水 平，继续下探的空间不大。 铜价高 ...

证券代码：000878 证券简称：云南铜业 云南铜业股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2025-19 2025 年至今，公司发行了四期科技创新债券，这是深入贯彻落实国家加 快实施创新驱动发展战略部署的具体表现，也是作为国家企业技术中心，强化 科技布局、推进战略新兴产业技术研发、提升科技竞争力的具体举措，亦是基 于自身优化债务结构、支持创新发展的综合考量。科技创新债券的发行，是公 司适应市场变化、拓宽融资渠道的新尝试，不仅对优化资本结构、降低融资成 本形成支撑，还为云南铜业持续高质量发展提供有力保障。 5. 公司目前的硫酸生产和销售情况如何？ 硫酸是公司铜冶炼生产环节的副产品，受区域因素影响价格有所不同。今 年以来，主要地区硫酸均价同比有较大幅度上涨，公司积极抢抓市场机遇，实 现了对业绩的积极贡献。 6. 大股东旗下秘鲁铜业今年的生产情况如何，是否存在注入上市公司的 可能性？ 据了解，大股东旗下的秘鲁铜业生产情况正常。2023 年 6 月，中国铜业 | 特定对象调研 | □分析师会议 | ☑ | 投资者关 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

公开资料，本公司对这些信息的推确性和完整性不作任何保证。这不保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生在何预必。我们已力求报告内容的客观、公 正. 但文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议、救资者依据本报告提供的信息进行对授数资所造成的一切后果,本公司拥有负责 。本报告版权仅仅为本公司所有，未经书面许可，在何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、度制和发布、如引用、刊发，凝准明出处为宏源期货。且不 得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。数据来源:SHM和WIND。风险提示:期市有风险,按资深谨慎! 王文虎(F03087656,Z0019472),联系电话:010-82293558 | | 变重名称 | 2025-11-27 | 2025-11-26 | 2025-11-19 较昨日变动 | | 近期定势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铜朗货活跃合约 | 收盘价 | 86990 | 86590 | 86080 | 400. 00 | | | | 成交量(手) | 95318 | 107213 | 71012 | -11,895.00 | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - China's industrial profit data shows that in October, the profit of large - scale industrial enterprises decreased by 5.5% year - on - year, but the profit in the first 10 months increased by 1.9% year - on - year. Among the three major sectors, the mining industry decreased by 27.8%, the manufacturing industry increased by 7.7%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas and water increased by 9.5% in the first 10 months [7]. - The long - term supply of copper is tight, and the consumption is expected to pick up. In 2026, the copper market will be in a state of supply shortage, with a high premium for refined copper. The long - term trading strategy for copper is mainly long - position [8][9]. - Cotton futures are expected to fluctuate due to the dual effects of short - term high - yield pressure and high basis support [10]. - After the listing of platinum and palladium futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, there are still risk - free arbitrage opportunities in the cross - market structure, and the prices of platinum and palladium are expected to rise in the short - term due to the easing of the Russia - Ukraine war situation [11][12]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Metal Products 3.1.1 Gold and Silver - Gold: The expectation of interest rate cuts has rebounded. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [15][19]. - Silver: It is in a state of shock adjustment. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [15][19]. 3.1.2 Copper - The long - term supply of copper is tight, and the long - term consumption is expected to pick up. In 2026, the global copper market will have a supply shortage of 150,000 tons. The long - term trading strategy is mainly long - position. The trend strength is 1, indicating a relatively strong view [8][9][25]. 3.1.3 Zinc - Zinc is in a state of weak shock. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [15][26]. 3.1.4 Lead - The inventory of lead has decreased, which supports the price. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [15][30]. 3.1.5 Tin - The supply of tin has been disturbed again. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [15][32]. 3.1.6 Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum is in a state of range - bound shock; alumina rebounds from a low level; cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum. The trend strength of all three is 0, indicating a neutral view [15][36]. 3.1.7 Nickel and Stainless Steel - The inventory accumulation rhythm of nickel has slowed down, and it is affected by macro and news in the short - term. Stainless steel prices are under pressure and fluctuate at a low level, but the downward space is limited. The trend strength of both is 0, indicating a neutral view [15][39]. 3.1.8 Carbonate Lithium - With the gradual resumption of production by large manufacturers and the less - than - expected inventory reduction, the price of carbonate lithium is under pressure. The trend strength is - 2, indicating a very bearish view [15][44]. 3.1.9 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon mainly fluctuates within a range. Polysilicon requires attention to the position of the 2512 contract. The trend strength of industrial silicon is 0 (neutral), and that of polysilicon is - 1 (weakly bearish) [15][47][48]. 3.1.10 Iron Ore - The downstream demand space for iron ore is limited, and the valuation is high. The trend strength is - 1, indicating a weakly bearish view [15][51]. 3.1.11 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Both rebar and hot - rolled coil are in a state of wide - range shock. The trend strength of both is 0, indicating a neutral view [15][53][54]. 3.1.12 Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Ferrosilicon fluctuates widely due to market sentiment disturbances, and silicomanganese fluctuates widely due to the firm price of ore. The trend strength of both is 0, indicating a neutral view [15][58]. 3.1.13 Coke and Coking Coal - Both coke and coking coal are in a state of wide - range shock. The trend strength of both is 0, indicating a neutral view [15][62]. 3.2 Agricultural Products 3.2.1 Cotton - Cotton futures are expected to fluctuate due to the dual effects of short - term high - yield pressure and high basis support. Attention should be paid to the change of the basis of spot cotton [10][15][18]. 3.2.2 Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Other Oils - Palm oil has a technical rebound due to the weakening of high - yield marginal trading. Soybean oil mainly fluctuates within a range [18]. 3.2.3 Corn - Corn is in a state of shock and upward trend [18]. 3.2.4 Sugar - Sugar is in a state of range consolidation [18]. 3.2.5 Eggs - The increase in the number of culled hens provides expected support for egg prices [18]. 3.2.6 Live Pigs - The limit on positions drives the divergence between the near - term futures and spot prices of live pigs [18]. 3.2.7 Peanuts - Attention should be paid to the spot price of peanuts [18]. 3.3 Others 3.3.1 Logs - Logs are in a state of weak shock [18][64].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract shows a volatile trend, with increasing open interest, spot premium, and strengthening basis. The copper concentrate spot TC index remains at a low negative level, indicating a tight raw material supply. The supply of refined copper may be restricted due to the tight copper ore supply and concentrated maintenance of some smelters. Downstream demand is still cautious due to high copper prices, mainly for rigid demand restocking. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of converging supply and temporarily weak demand. In the options market, the sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades on dips with a light position, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 86,990 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 10,931 dollars/ton, down 22 dollars. The main contract's open interest is 210,684 lots, up 5,956 lots. The LME copper inventory is 156,500 tons, down 75 tons; the SHFE cathode copper inventory is 110,603 tons, up 1,196 tons [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 87,085 yuan/ton, up 430 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 87,165 yuan/ton, up 420 yuan. The CU main contract basis is 95 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) is 30.83 dollars/ton, up 21.31 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 245.15 million tons, down 13.56 million tons. The copper concentrate prices in Jiangxi and Yunnan are 76,990 yuan/metal ton and 77,690 yuan/metal ton respectively, both up 140 yuan. The TC of domestic copper smelters is - 42.32 dollars/thousand tons, down 0.11 dollars [2]. 3.4产业情况 - The output of refined copper is 120.40 million tons, down 6.20 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000 tons, down 50,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons [2]. 3.5下游及应用 - The output of copper products is 200.40 million tons, down 22.80 million tons. The cumulative grid infrastructure investment is 4,824 billion yuan, up 445.93 billion yuan. The cumulative real estate development investment is 73,562.70 billion yuan, up 5,856.99 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,177,000 thousand pieces, down 194,236.10 thousand pieces [2]. 3.6期权情况 - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 11.20%, down 0.16%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 19.39%, up 0.01%. The current month's at - the - money IV implied volatility is 12.13%, up 0.0044%. The at - the - money option call - put ratio is 1.23, up 0.059 [2]. 3.7行业消息 - The Fed's Beige Book shows that economic activity is basically flat, with some areas facing a risk of slowdown. Six departments jointly issued a plan to promote consumer goods consumption. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased to a new low. More car companies are entering the humanoid robot field. The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association opposes zero or negative processing fees in the copper smelting industry and is taking measures to manage copper smelting capacity [2].

湿法炼铜的盈利核心来自于低品位矿石的折价，毛利率水平较高 火法炼铜核心盈利模式为赚取铜精矿加工费，盈利空间狭窄且周期性波动剧烈，相比之下湿法炼铜创造 的价格差盈利空间更大。湿法炼铜的原材料可为低品位氧化矿、原生矿等，可使湿法冶炼厂在扩大原材 料选取范围、保障原材料供应充足的同时，在采购时获得较高的折扣计价系数，即更低的原材料价格。 这种"低进高出"的价格差，构成了湿法炼铜高毛利的核心，其毛利率的韧性往往强于火法炼铜。当铜精 矿供应紧张导致TC/RC下跌时，湿法冶炼厂仍可以收获一定的盈利空间。 湿法铜冶炼企业毛利率在30%左右，显著高于火法炼铜毛利率 氧化铜矿主要分布在刚果(金)、赞比亚、智利等地区，因此湿法炼铜也广泛分布在以上地区，但是中资 企业主要投资于刚果(金)、赞比亚地区，其中又可以分为两大类，一类是以自有铜矿为主配套冶炼设 施，例如紫金矿业、洛阳钼业等企业，另一类是以湿法冶炼厂为主的企业，例如盛屯矿业、腾远钴业 等，鉴于盈利模式的差异性是由于冶炼厂带来的，该行主要梳理第二类企业，其铜业务毛利率普遍在 30%左右，与火法冶炼厂10%以内毛利水平形成鲜明的对比，也从数据上证实了不能把湿法炼铜企业简 单看作 ...

11月26日（周三），日本三菱材料公司（Mitsubishi Materials）宣布，计划到2035财年将原生铜冶炼量 削减30%-40%，以转向二次冶炼提升盈利能力。 日本铜冶炼厂正面临加工精炼费（TC/RC）暴跌、冶炼利润率萎缩的困境，这源于精矿供应紧。 二次冶炼是指利用回收材料而非矿石生产铜。 Tetsuya Tanaka社长在新闻发布会上表示："当前低廉的加工精炼费预计将持续，转向盈利性电子废料处 理对我们的可持续发展至关重要。"电子废料指废弃电脑、智能手机及家电等电子垃圾。 他强调："我们将迅速实现从数量到质量的战略转型，将营收结构从铜精矿加工转向二次冶炼，并优化 生产体系与业务组合。" Tanaka表示，公司计划到2035年将二次冶炼产能翻番，但受初级冶炼缩减影响，精炼铜产量将从当前年 产约40万吨水平下降20%-30%。 （文华综合） 三菱材料10月宣布，其Onahama冶炼厂将在10月至次年3月期间将精炼铜产量同比削减四分之一。 该公司还计划将其铜精矿采购与铜产品销售业务整合至国内竞争对手泛太平洋铜业（Pan Pacific Copper）。 三菱材料在公布自4月起实施的新三年经营计划时表示 ...

Core Points - The Chinese Nonferrous Metals Industry Association has publicly opposed the phenomenon of zero or negative processing fees in the copper smelting industry, calling it a "structural contradiction" that is unsustainable for the global copper industry [1][2] - China is taking measures to manage copper smelting capacity by halting approximately 2 million tons of illegal capacity to curb overexpansion, drawing lessons from the aluminum industry [2] - The processing and refining fees (TC/RC) have dropped to historical lows due to a structural imbalance between raw material shortages and excess smelting capacity, with spot processing fees even reaching negative $60 per ton [2] Industry Response - The association's vice president, Chen Xuesen, emphasized the harmful effects of negative processing fees on the global copper smelting industry and urged cooperation among relevant countries and stakeholders [1][2] - The current market conditions have led to concerns about the sustainability of the industry, with major companies like JX Advanced Metals and Glencore facing operational challenges due to low processing fees [2] - The upcoming long-term contract negotiations for 2026 are expected to address the need for a more sustainable pricing mechanism, with a cautious outlook from analysts regarding the potential for significant changes in the short term [5]

智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利发布研报称，由于中国有色金属工业协会副会长陈学森表示，政府指示 限制过剩产能，并关闭非法建设的铜冶炼产能，该行相信一旦落实措施，将会利好铜价及主要铜企。因 此，该行相信紫金矿业(02899)股价有七成至八成机会，在未来15天内上升。 该信息由智通财经网提供 ...