2020-2025年1-11月中国精炼铜(电解铜)产量统计图 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 上市企业：江西铜业（600362）,云南铜业（000878）,紫金矿业（601899）,铜陵有色（000630）,西部矿 业（601168）,白银有色（601212）,楚江新材（002171）,海亮股份（002203）,鑫科材料（600255）,锡 业股份（000960） 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国电解铜箔行业市场现状分析及投资前景评估报告》 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年11月中国精炼铜(电解铜)产量为124万吨，同比增长11.9%；2025年1- 11月中国精炼铜(电解铜)累计产量为1332.3万吨，累计增长9.8%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zijin Mining's subsidiary, Fujian Zijin Copper Foil Technology Co., Ltd., has received approval for an environmental assessment of its high-end oxygen-free copper rod expansion project, with a total investment of 22 million yuan [1]. Group 1: Company Information - Zijin Mining (601899) has an indirect controlling stake in Fujian Zijin Copper Foil Technology Co., Ltd. [1]. - The environmental assessment approval for the copper rod project was disclosed by regulatory authorities on December 26, 2025 [1]. Group 2: Industry Context - The "A-share Green Report" project, launched by Daily Economic News in collaboration with the public environmental research center (IPE), aims to enhance transparency in environmental information for listed companies [1]. - The project monitors environmental performance based on authoritative regulatory data from 31 provinces and 337 cities, providing professional data analysis and insights [1]. - The latest A-share Green Weekly Report indicated that four listed companies recently exposed environmental risks [1].

Group 1 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has approved Yunnan Copper Co., Ltd. to add the "Tiefeng" brand silver ingot as a registered delivery location [1] - The approved silver ingots can now be used for the delivery of silver futures contracts starting from the date of the announcement [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that copper futures in Shanghai experienced significant strength, rising by 3.08% to reach 103,370.00 yuan/ton as of January 12 [1] - The average price of electrolytic copper in Shanghai increased by 2,895 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, with a range of 102,850-103,600 yuan/ton [2] - Major copper smelting companies in China decided not to set a unified processing/refining fee (TC/RC) guidance price for imported copper concentrate for the first quarter of 2026 [2] Group 2 - A report from Yide Futures highlights global copper supply tightness and insufficient elasticity, with new consumption from green energy and computing driving copper prices upward [4] - Dongwu Futures notes that the recent ADP employment data from the U.S. fell short of market expectations, indicating a still-weak labor market, while the initial jobless claims showed some resilience [4] - The high copper prices are suppressing domestic demand, leading to low spot transaction volumes and a continued accumulation of inventory, with the pace of accumulation faster than in previous years [4]

沪铜或维持高位震荡趋势 | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格： | | | | | | 证监许可【2012】1087 号 | | | | | | 有色板块研究员：刘江 | | | | | | 期货从业资格证号：F0305841 | | | | | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0016251 | | | | | | 电话：0931-8894545 | | | | | | 邮箱：451591573@qq.com | | | | | | 报告日期：2026 年 | 1 | 月 | 12 | 日星期一 | 研究报告 铜周报 摘要： 【宏观面、基本面分析】 报告日期：2026 年 1 月 12 日星期一 美联储理事米兰表示，预计在 2026 年降息约 150 个基点。此 举有望创造约一百万个就业岗位，同时不会引发通货膨胀。米兰 表示，很难说政策是中性的，他认为美国仍然实质性超出中性的 水平。据 CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储 1 月降息 25 个基 点的概率为 11.6%，维持利率不变的概率为 88.4%。到 3 月累计降 息 ...

Group 1 - Pan-Pacific Copper (PPC) proposed a record-high copper premium of $330 per ton for domestic customers in Japan for 2026, more than three times the $88 premium in 2025, reflecting supply-demand fundamentals [2] - The current price increase is attributed to a significant decline in processing and refining fees (TC/RC), which has raised raw material procurement costs, prompting PPC to pass these costs onto customers [2] - Concerns about potential U.S. tariffs on copper ingots later this year have tightened Asian supply, impacting the market dynamics [2] Group 2 - China's copper industry faces three major challenges: increasing reliance on foreign upstream resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and suppressed downstream demand due to high copper prices [3] - Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network (SMM) collaborated with copper industry enterprises to compile a bilingual distribution map of the Chinese copper industry chain for 2026 [3]

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2026-01-09 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2026-01-09 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 白银高位回落，提示短期价格压力 观点分享： 我们观察近日白银有几个变化：1、由于此前国内投机情绪集中涌入、以及下游备货等行 为，国内现货升水高企，但近期有所缓和；海外白银租赁利率明显回落，1M 从 8%以上回落 至 4.46%，且结构从 back 转为 contango。2、价差方面，尽管伦纽维持升水，但内外价差 有所收敛，国内溢价持续挤出。3、资金层面，交易所对白银风控加码，限制最大开仓数量， 打压多头热情。此外，1 月 8 日 BCOM 权重调整即便市场规模有限，但在多空均有犹豫的高 位下对多空博弈的砝码影响可能高于理性判断，且美国最高法院周五将对特朗普关税是否合 法做出裁决，可能成为大逻辑上判断白银现货矛盾关键的证伪因素。 种种迹象表明，多头持续拉升价格的压力逐渐加大，现货紧俏短期在元旦后达到小高 峰，资金面基本面均出现泄力迹象，继续突破上行的条件越来越苛刻。故我们判断，从策略 维度上看，白银趋势做多策略具备离场的价值。 我们讨论是否代表了白银趋 ...

Core Insights - The copper smelting industry in China is experiencing a significant trade deficit, with imports far exceeding exports, leading to an increasing trend in trade deficit from 2019 to 2024 [1][2]. Trade Deficit - In 2024, the total import and export value of copper smelting-related products in China reached 811.86 billion yuan, with a trade deficit expanding by 114.51 billion yuan [1]. - For the first seven months of 2025, the trade deficit was recorded at 195.81 billion yuan, indicating a continued trend of high import reliance [2]. Import Volume and Value - The import volume of copper smelting-related products in China reached 33.02 million tons in 2024, marking a 2.34% increase from 2023, with an import value of 807.29 billion yuan, which is a 14.48% increase compared to 2020 [3]. - In the first seven months of 2025, the import volume was 20.00 million tons, with an import value of 507.56 billion yuan [3]. Import Price Trends - The average import price of copper smelting-related products has shown an upward trend from 2019 to July 2025, with significant increases noted during the 2020-2021 period due to supply chain disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic [5]. Export Volume and Value - The export volume of copper smelting-related products in China was 456,400 tons in 2024, with an export value of 31.60 billion yuan, reaching a peak during the observed period [7]. - For the first seven months of 2025, the export volume was 421,600 tons, with an export value of 28.92 billion yuan [7]. Export Price Trends - The average export price of copper smelting-related products has generally increased from 2019 to July 2025, although some products exhibited significant price volatility due to smaller export volumes [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply disruption concerns continue, and base metals remain strong. In the short - to - medium term, the logic of weak US dollar expectations and supply disruption concerns remains unchanged. The impact of weak real - time demand is limited, and supply disruption concerns continue to drive up base metals. Long - term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and the supply disruption issues of copper, aluminum, and tin still exist, with expectations of tightening supply - demand [1]. - Copper: Supply disruptions in copper mines are frequent, and copper prices continue to run strongly [2][7]. - Alumina: The market sentiment is high, and alumina prices have rebounded strongly [2][7]. - Aluminum: The capital sentiment is optimistic, and aluminum prices continue to show a strong upward trend [2][9]. - Aluminum alloy: Cost support is strong, and the market continues to show a strong upward trend [2][11]. - Zinc: The short - term supply recovery is slow, and zinc prices fluctuate with non - ferrous metals [2][12]. - Lead: The absolute level of social inventory is low, and lead prices continue to rebound [2][16]. - Nickel: Supported by Indonesian policy expectations, nickel prices have soared [2][17]. - Stainless steel: Driven by the rise in nickel prices, the stainless - steel market has soared [2][21]. - Tin: Supply disruptions have emerged again, and tin prices are fluctuating upwards [2][24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - Information analysis: In 2026, the copper concentrate long - term processing fee benchmark is set at $0/ton and $0/pound. In December 2025, China's electrolytic copper production increased month - on - month and year - on - year. On January 7, 2026, the spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount to the futures contract. There were strikes at the Mantoverde copper mine in Chile and a delay in the second - phase project of the Mirador copper mine in Ecuador [7]. - Main logic: The Fed's interest - rate cuts and balance - sheet expansion support copper prices. Copper mine supply disruptions are increasing, and the supply is tightening. Refined copper supply is expected to shrink, and although the current demand is weak, the long - term supply - demand is expected to be tight [7]. - Outlook: Copper prices are expected to be volatile and strong due to supply constraints and disruptions [7]. 3.1.2 Alumina - Information analysis: On January 7, 2026, the northern spot comprehensive price of alumina was flat, and the national weighted index decreased slightly. The alumina warehouse receipt was 154,828 tons, unchanged from the previous day [7]. - Main logic: The macro - sentiment amplifies market fluctuations. The supply is in a state of over - accumulation, and the cost support is average. The market is at the bottom and fluctuating, and more smelter production cuts or new ore - end disturbances are needed to boost prices [7]. - Outlook: The current supply - demand is in surplus, but the valuation is in the low - end range, and alumina is expected to remain volatile [7]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - Information analysis: On January 7, 2026, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum increased, and the inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods in the main consumption areas increased. The electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipt on the SHFE increased. Some air - conditioning companies launched the "aluminum replacing copper" standard implementation work, while Gree promised not to raise prices and had no such plan [9]. - Main logic: The macro - outlook is positive. The domestic production capacity and operating rate are high, and the overseas supply has constraints. The current high aluminum prices suppress demand, and inventory has accumulated. Overall, the short - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, and aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong [9]. - Outlook: In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong. In the medium term, the supply increment is limited, and the demand is resilient, so the price center is expected to rise [9][10]. 3.1.4 Aluminum alloy - Information analysis: On January 7, 2026, the price of Baotai ADC12 aluminum alloy increased [11]. - Main logic: The cost support is strong due to the tight supply of scrap aluminum. The weekly operating rate decreased due to raw material shortages and profit issues. The demand is currently based on rigid procurement, and the inventory has slightly decreased. Overall, the cost support and stable supply - demand are expected to keep prices volatile and strong [11]. - Outlook: In the short and medium terms, prices are expected to be volatile and strong due to cost support and potential supply policy disturbances [11]. 3.1.5 Zinc - Information analysis: On January 7, 2026, the spot price of zinc in different regions was at a premium to the futures contract. As of January 7, the SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory increased. The Mount Isa railway line in Australia was damaged, affecting zinc concentrate supply [12][14]. - Main logic: The macro - outlook is stable. The zinc ore supply is tight in the short term, and the smelter profit has declined. The domestic zinc ingot supply pressure is not large, and the demand is in the off - season. In the short term, zinc prices may remain high and volatile, and in the long term, there is a risk of price decline [14]. - Outlook: In January, zinc prices are expected to be volatile as the production increases slightly, the demand is in the off - season, and the non - ferrous metal sector is strong [14][15]. 3.1.6 Lead - Information analysis: On January 7, 2026, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries increased, and the price of lead ingots increased. The social inventory of lead ingots increased slightly, and the SHFE lead warehouse receipt decreased slightly. After the New Year's Day holiday, the lead industry chain gradually resumed normal trading [16]. - Main logic: The spot premium decreased, the supply was affected by environmental protection with a decline in production, and the demand was mixed. The electric bicycle orders were weak, while the automobile battery orders improved [16]. - Outlook: As smelters resume production, the lead ingot production may increase. The demand is weakening marginally, but the high cost of waste batteries supports prices, so lead prices are expected to be volatile [16][17]. 3.1.7 Nickel - Information analysis: On January 7, 2026, the SHFE nickel warehouse receipt decreased, and the LME nickel inventory increased. The January 2026 KSP price increased. Indonesia plans to regulate the 2026 nickel production quota through RKAB [17][18]. - Main logic: The supply pressure of nickel remains high, and the demand is in the traditional off - season. The policy of Indonesia on nickel production quota is uncertain. Overall, the current supply - demand is loose, and nickel prices are expected to be volatile [17][20]. - Outlook: In January, the supply - demand of nickel is expected to remain loose, and LME inventory is high, suppressing prices. However, if the actual Indonesian quota is low, the oversupply expectation will decline, and nickel prices are expected to be volatile [17][20]. 3.1.8 Stainless steel - Information analysis: The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipt decreased slightly. The price of high - nickel pig iron increased. Indonesia plans to regulate the 2026 nickel production quota through RKAB [21]. - Main logic: The cost of stainless steel is supported by the recovery of nickel - iron prices. The production in December decreased, and the production plan for January may increase slightly. The terminal demand is cautious, and the inventory may accumulate. Overall, stainless - steel prices are expected to be volatile [21][22]. - Outlook: In January, the production may increase slightly, but the demand is weak in the off - season. Considering the long - term suppressed industry profit and mine - end support, stainless - steel prices are expected to be volatile [21][23]. 3.1.9 Tin - Information analysis: On January 6, 2026, the LME tin warehouse receipt increased, the SHFE tin warehouse receipt decreased, and the SHFE tin position increased. The spot price of 1 tin ingot increased [24]. - Main logic: The supply of tin is a major concern. The resumption of production in the Wa State is affected by issues such as explosive approval, and the supply in Indonesia and Africa is also restricted. The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the production of refined tin is difficult to increase. The demand is expected to increase due to the global economic environment and the development of related industries [24]. - Outlook: Due to high supply risks and low inventory in the industry chain, tin prices are expected to be volatile and strong [24][25]. 3.2行情监测 3.2.1 Index data - Comprehensive index: The commodity index was 2405.76, up 0.78%; the commodity 20 index was 2745.33, up 0.55%; the industrial products index was 2344.88, up 1.20%; the PPI commodity index was 1467.90, up 0.62% [151]. - Non - ferrous metal index: On January 7, 2026, the non - ferrous metal index was 2846.27, up 0.27% on the day, up 6.38% in the past 5 days, up 10.47% in the past month, and up 5.97% since the beginning of the year [152].

Core Viewpoint - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, Jinchuan Group Copper Precious Metals Co., Ltd. aims to expand and refine its copper and precious metals industry through key projects, technological innovation, and a comprehensive industry chain layout, while also achieving a transformation towards high-end, intelligent, and green development [1]. Group 1: Project Development and Scale Growth - The company has successfully launched a modern refining plant in Yongchang County, significantly enhancing production efficiency and reducing labor intensity through automation and advanced monitoring systems [3]. - The project is recognized as a major construction initiative in Gansu Province during the "14th Five-Year Plan," achieving rapid construction speed and operational standards [3]. - In 2023, the company restructured to form Jinchuan Group Copper Precious Metals Co., Ltd., optimizing governance and operational mechanisms, and is set to officially unveil in June 2025 [3][4]. Group 2: Technological Innovation and Product Development - Jinchuan Copper Precious Metals has invested over 1 billion yuan in R&D, with an annual growth rate exceeding 18%, focusing on overcoming critical industry technologies [6]. - The company has achieved domestic production of ultra-thin lithium battery copper foil, with a thickness of only 4.5 microns, breaking foreign monopolies in this key material [8]. - The successful domestic production of stainless steel permanent cathode plates has significantly reduced costs and improved economic benefits for the company [9]. Group 3: Industry Chain Extension and Market Expansion - The company has developed a complete industry chain covering copper, precious metals, and deep processing, enhancing its foundation for high-quality development [4]. - Jinchuan Copper Precious Metals has transitioned from selling raw materials to creating brands and providing services, establishing a comprehensive product system in the copper industry [14]. - The company has expanded its product applications in high-end manufacturing sectors such as new energy and aerospace, establishing deep partnerships with leading enterprises [14]. Group 4: Talent Development and Productivity Improvement - The company has improved labor productivity in its gold and silver industries by 42% and 17%, respectively, fostering a new generation of skilled workers through practical training and mentorship [16]. - A unique "4+2" training system has been implemented to accelerate talent development, combining theoretical learning with project experience [16]. - The company has successfully completed its shareholding reform and is entering a new phase of market-oriented, professional, and international development [16].