强弱分析：中性偏强 国内库存小幅累库 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 日期：2026年01月11日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 锌：强宏观定价，价格易涨难跌 锌产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属组 季先飞 （首席分析师/联席行政负责人） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 镀锌开工回升 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 第 2 页 资料来源：SMM、钢联、同花顺、Bloomberg、国泰君安期货研究所 ◆ 供应侧扰动增加。周中澳大利亚Mount Isa矿传出暴雨导致铁路运输线暂停消息，引 发市场对海外锌矿供应收紧担忧，若铁路维修过慢，或影响锌矿供给；当下国产矿加 工费集中在800-1500/金属吨，下方调整空间相对有限。同时进口窗口已打开，进口 锌精矿报盘30-50美元/干吨，锌矿原料库存预计回升。 ◆ 需求侧季节性淡季。镀锌、氧化锌、压铸锌合金节后订单 ...

新能源及有色金属月报 | 2026-01-04 核心观点 锌精矿 12月份国产锌矿TC下滑550元/吨至1500元/吨；进口锌矿加工费指数从61.25美元/吨降至43.75美元/吨。虽然随着海 外锌锭集中交仓内外比价收敛，使得锌矿进口窗口打开，但冶炼厂存在冬储需求，采购需求不减，锌矿TC仍然不 改下跌趋势，目前对1月份的价格谈判仍在进行中，预计仍有小幅下滑的可能。 TC不改下滑趋势锌价估值偏低 策略摘要 成本方面，国产矿进入季节性停产周期，虽然随着海外集中交仓内外比价的回归，使得矿端进口窗口打开，但整 体依旧不改矿端TC下滑的趋势，冶炼厂在经历冬储采购后，原料库存储备有所提高，但可用天数并不高，采购积 极性依旧不减，短期难以看到TC上涨趋势，预计仍有小幅下降空间。冶炼利润方面，虽然锌价、硫酸及白银价格 持续走强，但受限于TC持续回落，综合冶炼依旧面临亏损。供给端，12月供给同比增速已经下滑至5%，1月份产 量仍存在不及预期的可能性，供给端压力缓解，当前市场已经出现火烧云产品，后期供应端主要关注火烧云投产 速度。消费方面，消费淡季表现出韧性，高频数据并未出现下滑，出口窗口关闭之后社会库存重心依旧在回落， 出口依 ...

宏观层面，周四圣诞假期致使市场活跃度降低，美元指数下跌、股市集体收涨与油价下跌等多空因素并 存，市场风险偏好氛围飘忽不定。同时，市场对美联储领导层更迭保持谨慎。特朗普计划于2026年初宣 布下任美联储主席提名人选，以接替即将卸任的鲍威尔，期望新主席能推动更多降息。尽管降息利好风 险资产，但过程充满不确定性，资金因此选择谨慎操作，且受假期影响，资金倾向于高位获利了结，锌 价承压下行。 基本面，进口锌精矿加工费持续下跌，国内锌精矿加工费也快速下行、区域价差拉大，多数地区供应紧 张，矿山复产进度迟缓，国内冬储货源短缺。锌矿加工费快速下滑增加了冶炼厂生产压力，凸显当前供 应收缩预期较强。不过，年末市场对后续走向存忧、现货市场年底关账商家增多，贸易商以出货为主， 主力月升水小幅下调，下游采购意愿弱致现货成交差。 综合分析，宏观氛围平淡且美元走弱限制了锌价跌幅，但国内年末效应凸显，下游备货意愿一般，镀锌 消费疲软、合金消费尚有韧性，原料采购谨慎，短期基本面驱动力不足，且海外处于圣诞休市期，预计 锌价将延续区间震荡态势，今日现锌价格或下跌。 （长江有色金属网cjys.cn研发团队 0592-5668838） 新浪合作大平台 ...

年度报告—锌 渊龙寻底，待势而升 | [T走ab势le_评R级ank：] | | 锌：看涨 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 | 年 | 12 | 月 | 24 | 日 | [★Ta矿bl冶e_平Su衡mmary] 26 年全球锌矿产量增速下滑，增量主要集中在国内，海外增量主 要在于非标矿，进口矿增量集中在俄罗斯、南非和伊朗等地区， 而内弱外强格局维持，锌矿进口或将受到比价压制。海外炼厂存 在复产预期，但矿增量难以满足国内外冶炼产能的共同释放，即 矿端最宽松的阶段或已过去。26 年矿冶平衡将有所收紧，相较于 25 年，TC 运行中枢或更低，锌价运行中枢或将更高。 ★锌锭平衡 有 色 金 属 26 年国内炼厂有望继续释放产能，海外炼厂复产空间将受到低价 长单和原料供应充裕程度的限制。内需方面，预计基建领域能够 继续托底需求，主要是十五五首年的政策托底预期和 2H25 固定 资产投资的低基数表现；耐消需求将整体承压，主要是受到需求 前置释放和政策效应边际递减的影响，内需增速较 25 年有一定 下滑。新兴市场提供 ...

长江锌业网（pb.ccmn.cn）今日现货锌价行情预估：国际油价跌幅扩大与全球股市低迷共振施压，隔夜 伦锌三连跌1.94%，收报3035美元/吨； 宏观层面，周二美国劳工部公布的数据显示，11月美国非农就业增长强于预期，但失业率上升至 4.6%，且新增岗位主要集中在医疗保健等非周期性行业。行业分析师认为，报告数据内部分化，暗示 经济周期性动能依然有限，市场预计美联储短期内对进一步降息将持谨慎态度。隔夜美国股市全线下挫 打压市场风险偏好，锌价承压下调。 基本面方面，国内11月锌精矿产量为31.14万吨，较10月减少1.94万吨。北方部分矿山已进入冬季减产阶 段，国产矿供应持续收紧。同时，内外比价不佳导致锌矿进口亏损较大，进口量缩减。11月后，冶炼厂 有原料备货需求，对国产矿抢购情绪高涨，推动锌矿加工费快速下调。截至上周，国产锌矿加工费降至 1600元/金属吨，进口矿加工费也有所回落，降至50.56美元/干吨。考虑到国产矿处于季节性淡季，预计 明年一季度前矿端整体供应将偏紧。截至11月底，冶炼厂原料库存降至37.7万金属吨，库存可用天数为 20.8天，较前几个月明显下滑。此外，国内锌锭库存持续下降，上期所数据显示 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-19 国内库存去库趋势不改 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-21.57美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化110元/吨至23130元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水110元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日90元/吨至23020元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-15元/吨； 天津锌现货价较前一交易日90元/吨至23030元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水10元/吨。 期货方面：2025-12-18沪锌主力合约开于23000元/吨，收于23030元/吨，较前一交易日120元/吨，全天交易日成交 92275手，全天交易日持仓52902手，日内价格最高点达到23105元/吨，最低点达到22965元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-12-18，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为12.22万吨，较上期变化-0.35万吨。截止2025-12-18，LME 锌库存为99400吨，较上一交易日变化1700吨。 市场分析 下游刚需采购，现货升贴水继续修复，国内消费存在韧性，社会库存重心持续下滑。海外库存激增升水转为贴水， 中国锌锭出口窗口关闭，但集中交货预计难以持续，库存绝对值依旧偏低。矿端TC持续 ...

12月16日，国内期市有色金属板块大面积飘绿。其中，沪锌期货主力合约开盘报23310.00元/吨，今日 盘中低位震荡运行；截至发稿，沪锌主力最高触及23345.00元，下方探低22935.00元，跌幅达1.82%附 近。 五矿期货指出，锌矿显性库存去库，锌精矿TC延续下行。国内锌锭社会库存去库，LME锌锭库存缓慢 累库，沪伦比值小幅上行。当前沪伦比值水平下国内仍有元素缺口，叠加锌冶炼企业出现减产，国内现 货端边际收紧。11日凌晨联储议息会议超预期鸽派并重启扩表，推动贵金属及有色金属加速上行。但点 阵图仅定价明年存在1次25bps的降息，在明年3月18日前美联储货币政策刺激力度相对有限。有色金属 情绪退潮后，沪锌或将回吐部分涨幅。 目前来看，沪锌行情呈现震荡下行走势，盘面表现偏弱。对于沪锌后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 中财期货分析称，宏观方面，美联储如期降息且会后发言以及点阵图对外释放鸽派信号，预计26年仍处 宽松周期内。产业来看，锌矿紧缺背景下，国内锌精矿加工费跌势持续。海外进口锌精矿短期报盘纷 乱，但整体报价重心持续下滑。12月原料紧缺问题再度放大，企业主动减产控产增多，预计精炼锌产量 环比 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report In October, zinc prices declined and then rebounded. The industry's focus was on the short squeeze of LME zinc and domestic zinc smelting production cuts. The registered warehouse receipts of LME zinc ingots reached a new low in recent years, and the high LME zinc spread opened the domestic zinc ingot export window. With the decrease in imported zinc ore and the increase in domestic zinc smelting winter stockpiling demand, the zinc ore TC declined, and the zinc smelting profit decreased, leading to a slowdown in zinc ingot supply growth. The downstream demand remained generally stable, and the total domestic zinc ingot inventory gradually increased. The major short positions in the previous main contract of SHFE zinc significantly reduced, and some turned into net long positions. The registered warehouse receipts of LME zinc slightly increased, alleviating the overseas structural risk. Considering the recent macro - events and the positive sentiment in the commodity market, SHFE zinc is expected to be strong in the short term, but the upside space for zinc prices is limited during the surplus cycle [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment - **Price Review**: In October, zinc prices declined and then rebounded. The LME zinc registered warehouse receipts hit a new low of 22,900 tons in recent years, and the high LME zinc spread opened the domestic zinc ingot export window. As of November 6, the SHFE zinc index rose 0.10% to 22,691 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 225,700 lots. The LME zinc 3S fell 16 to $3,054.5/ton, with a total position of 228,600 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingot was 22,500 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: The domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 158,700 tons, and the SHFE zinc futures inventory was 68,000 tons. The basis in Shanghai was - 55 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 45 yuan/ton. The LME zinc inventory was 34,000 tons, and the cancelled warehouse receipts were 4,300 tons. The basis of the cash - 3S contract was $98.23/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was $53.2/ton. The ex - exchange rate SHFE - LME ratio was 1.046, and the zinc ingot import loss was 4,211.76 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industry Data**: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 2,850 yuan/metal ton, and the imported TC index was 103 dollars/dry ton. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 248,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory was 616,000 physical tons. The weekly operating rates of galvanized structural parts, die - cast zinc alloys, and zinc oxide were 57.54%, 52.50%, and 58.19% respectively [11]. - **Outlook**: The domestic zinc ore inventory continued to decline, the zinc concentrate processing fee dropped again, and the domestic zinc smelting profit decreased, resulting in a decline in monthly zinc ingot production. With downstream demand remaining stable, the total domestic zinc ingot inventory slowly increased. SHFE zinc is expected to be strong in the short term, but the upside space is limited [11]. 3.2 Macro Analysis The report presents multiple charts related to the US fiscal and debt situation, the Fed's balance sheet, dollar liquidity, manufacturing PMIs of China and the US, and manufacturing new and unfinished orders in the US, but no specific analysis conclusions are provided [14][16][19][20]. 3.3 Supply Analysis - **Zinc Ore Supply**: In September 2025, the domestic zinc ore production was 314,500 metal tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.8%. From January to September, the cumulative zinc ore production was 2,739,800 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 3.5%. The net import of zinc ore in September was 505,400 dry tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.2% and a month - on - month increase of 8.6%. From January to September, the cumulative net import of zinc ore was 4,000,600 dry tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 41.0%. The total domestic zinc ore supply in September was 541,900 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.2%. From January to September, the cumulative domestic zinc ore supply was 4,540,100 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.3% [25][27]. - **Zinc Ingot Supply**: In October 2025, the zinc ingot production was 617,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.4% and a month - on - month increase of 2.8%. From January to October, the cumulative zinc ingot production was 5,686,300 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.1%. The net import of zinc ingot in September was 23,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 58.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 16.2%. From January to September, the cumulative net import of zinc ingot was 267,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 21.1%. The total domestic zinc ingot supply in September was 623,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 4.7%. From January to September, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply was 5,336,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.8% [33][35]. 3.4 Demand Analysis - **Initial - stage Demand**: The weekly operating rates of galvanized structural parts, die - cast zinc alloys, and zinc oxide were 57.48%, 53.13%, and 56.36% respectively. The raw material inventories were 13,000 tons, 13,000 tons, and 3,000 tons respectively, and the finished product inventories were 370,000 tons, 10,000 tons, and 5,000 tons respectively [39]. - **Apparent Demand**: In September 2025, the domestic zinc ingot apparent demand was 622,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9% and a month - on - month increase of 3.9%. From January to September, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot apparent demand was 5,193,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.7% [41]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory - **Domestic Balance**: In September 2025, the domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 500 tons. From January to September, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 143,200 tons [52]. - **Overseas Balance**: In July 2025, the overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a surplus of 3,000 tons. From January to July, the cumulative overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a surplus of 28,200 tons [55]. 3.6 Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: The domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 161,500 tons. The SHFE zinc futures inventory was 67,800 tons. The basis in Shanghai was - 30 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 5 yuan/ton [60]. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc inventory was 34,900 tons, and the cancelled warehouse receipts were 6,100 tons. The basis of the cash - 3S contract was $96.02/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was $46.49/ton [63]. - **Cross - market Structure**: The ex - exchange rate SHFE - LME ratio was 1.04, and the zinc ingot import loss was 4,272.74 yuan/ton [64]. - **Position Analysis**: The net position of the top 20 holders of SHFE zinc turned net long, the net long position of LME zinc investment funds increased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises decreased, indicating a short - term bullish sentiment from the position perspective [67].

Core Viewpoint - Hunan Province's Huayuan County is transitioning from a "Manganese Triangle" to a "Green Triangle" through effective measures aimed at ecological transformation and sustainable development [2][3][4] Group 1: Government Initiatives - The Hunan Provincial Party Secretary and Governor have conducted multiple inspections in Huayuan County to guide environmental pollution control and ecological restoration efforts [2] - Local leaders are actively involved in on-site remediation efforts to ensure effective results in environmental governance [2] Group 2: Industrial Transformation - Huayuan County has consolidated four manganese mining companies into one and reduced five electrolytic manganese smelting companies to one, leading to the dismantling of 1,598 acres of abandoned structures [3] - The county has achieved significant land reclamation, with over 21,800 acres of land restored and 15.7 kilometers of roads greened [3] - The implementation of land use policies has generated 1.35 billion yuan in revenue from land indicator trading [3] Group 3: Ecological Restoration - The county is committed to a "waste-to-resource" approach, focusing on the technological remediation of tailings and mining waste [4] - Huayuan County has been recognized as a pilot county for green development in the mining sector and has successfully removed its designation as a key safety production county for non-coal mines [4] - The local tourism sector has seen a boost, with significant visitor numbers reported during the National Day holiday, indicating a positive impact from ecological improvements [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information regarding the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the context of the realized export increment, the supply - demand pattern has marginally improved. The focus of the fundamentals has shifted to the transmission of the tight - mine logic, which provides some support for zinc prices. However, the upside is constrained by weak consumption, leading to a weak rebound and repair of SHFE zinc at low levels [7][25]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1. Market Review - In Q1, the center of zinc prices declined and entered a wide - range oscillation range. In Q2, macro - risk events drove SHFE zinc futures prices to gap down and move lower. The shadow of tariff policies persisted, and the oversupply in the industrial supply - demand situation pressured zinc prices, which oscillated within a range. In Q3, the anti - involution trend in the domestic commodity market and the rising expectation of overseas interest rate cuts pushed the macro - environment to turn warmer. However, the continuous drag from the SHFE zinc fundamentals prevented resonance, resulting in a pattern of rising and then falling within a range. In July, tariff policies increased trade uncertainty, causing the market sentiment to turn cautious. The macro and fundamental aspects resonated, and SHFE zinc dipped to 21,865 yuan/ton. In the second half of the month, the anti - involution sentiment swept through the commodity market, and SHFE zinc led the rally among non - ferrous metals. At the end of July, the lack of super - expected stimulus in the Politburo meeting, combined with the fundamental drag, pressured SHFE zinc again. In August, the core contradiction of abundant zinc concentrate and zinc ingots in the zinc market became more prominent during the off - season of demand. Supported by overseas interest - rate cut expectations and the low - inventory pattern on the LME, SHFE zinc was difficult to decline significantly, oscillating between 22,000 and 23,000 yuan/ton. In September, the strengthening overseas interest - rate cut expectation and the shift of the LME 0 - 3 structure to Back and its widening supported the zinc price from the external market. In China, the supply exceeded demand, and the inflection point of social inventory destocking was postponed. SHFE zinc lacked upward momentum and maintained an oscillating pattern. In late September, affected by the macro - environment, the strengthening US dollar led to long - position liquidation in LME zinc, dragging SHFE zinc below 22,000 yuan/ton. In October, with the opening of the export window, some zinc ingots were exported, and the supply - demand pattern improved marginally [9][10]. 3.1.2. Future Outlook - On the mine side, seasonal production cuts in northern domestic mines and some mines' active production control after completing their annual plans have led to a decline in domestic zinc - mine supply. The zinc - mine TC is still expected to weaken. In October, the imported zinc - mine processing fee also showed a peak - and - decline trend. Although the internal - external ratio has recovered from its low level, zinc - mine imports are still at a loss, highlighting the price advantage of domestic mines. With the support of smelters' winter - storage demand, the domestic TC is under more significant pressure. On the supply side, although smelters currently have relatively abundant raw - material inventories, the decline in domestic zinc - mine processing fees and the tightening of raw - material supply may restrict zinc - ingot production. On the demand side, the "Silver October" peak season ended, and the primary consumption sector performed mediocrely, with year - on - year performance worse than last year. Coupled with the weak prices of the black - metal sector, there were few bright spots overall. Affected by the closure of the import window, zinc - ingot imports significantly shrank. In mid - to late October, the export window to Southeast Asia opened, and the decline in the net - import level alleviated the domestic oversupply situation. The high - premium structure overseas stimulated the delivery of some invisible inventories, and the extreme value of 0 - 3 Back significantly declined. However, the LME zinc inventory remained below 40,000 tons. The tight - supply pattern and the generally optimistic macro - environment strongly supported LME zinc [7][25]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. Winter Storage Leads to Peaked - and - Declined Processing Fees, and Domestic Zinc - Mine Supply Weakens Month - on - Month - ILZSG indicates that due to planned and unexpected mine closures, zinc - mine production has decreased in the past three years, but it may increase by 4.3% to 1.243 billion tons in 2025. It is expected that due to the increase in concentrate supply, refined - zinc production will grow by 1.8% to 1.373 billion tons in 2025, and demand will grow by 1% to 1.364 billion tons, resulting in a global refined - zinc supply surplus of 93,000 metric tons. In 2025, factors such as the复产, new production, and adjustment of mining plans of overseas zinc concentrates will significantly improve the tight - supply pattern of zinc mines. The overseas market mainly focuses on the Russian Ozernoye and Congo (Kinshasa) Kipushi projects as growth points, and the Irish Tara mine plans to reach full production in 2025. In the fourth quarter, domestic smelters are actively producing due to winter - storage demand, and the demand for domestic zinc mines is strong. However, domestic mines are reducing production due to seasonality and some mines' production control after completing their annual plans, resulting in a month - on - month weakening of supply. The domestic zinc - mine processing fee significantly declined in October. If the domestic supply remains tight, the imported zinc - mine processing fee is expected to decline further. Imported zinc mines are in a long - term loss, and smelters' purchasing willingness is low. The increase in the imported zinc - mine TC previously may lead to the recovery of overseas smelters' production, which may affect future imported - mine inflows, and the imported processing fee is also under downward pressure [26][27][28]. 3.2.2. Smelters' Raw - Material Inventories at a High Level, and the Price of By - Product Sulfuric Acid Rises - Due to the abundant supply at the raw - material end, smelters' raw - material inventories are at a high level. The rising by - product price further stimulates smelting enthusiasm, and domestic zinc - ingot production has increased significantly year - on - year in 2025. Since Q3, the internal - external ratio has decreased, and smelters have continuously snapped up domestic zinc mines due to the economic advantage of domestic mines. The domestic zinc - mine processing fee has peaked and declined, but the smelting - end raw - material inventory is abundant, and zinc - ingot production remained at a high level in September. According to SMM data, domestic zinc - ingot production in September was 600,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.19%. The total production from January to September was 5.0691 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 8.85%. Domestic smelters will start negotiating the zinc - mine processing fee for November with mines. Currently, domestic smelters' demand for raw materials is strong, and the zinc - mine processing fee will continue to decline in the context of a tight - mine pattern. At the beginning of November, the SMM imported zinc - concentrate index decreased by $8.5 per dry ton month - on - month to $110.25 per dry ton, and the average weekly SMM Zn50 domestic TC decreased by 150 yuan per metal ton month - on - month to 3,250 yuan per metal ton. The comprehensive zinc - concentrate processing fee (after a 2/8 split) is 4,700 yuan/ton. The decline in TC squeezes the smelting - end profit, but the price of by - product sulfuric acid continues to rise under cost support. In October, the increase in sulfuric - acid prices was less than that at the cost end, and there may be a possibility of production reduction, which drives the trading activity in the smelting - acid market, and the price rises accordingly. However, downstream resistance to high prices is prominent, and the domestic sulfuric - acid market may oscillate at a high level in November [35]. 3.2.3. The Export Window Opens, and Zinc - Ingot Exports Increase Month - on - Month in October - According to the latest customs data, 505,400 physical tons of imported zinc concentrates were imported in September 2025, a month - on - month increase of 8.15% and a year - on - year increase of 24.94%. The cumulative imported zinc - concentrate volume from January to September was 4.008 million physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 40.49%. Although the imported zinc - mine window remains closed, the previously locked - price and long - term contract zinc mines of smelters are arriving at ports successively, and the arrival volume of imported zinc mines remains stable. In the fourth quarter, mines are reducing production seasonally, and with the winter - storage demand and the high - level refined - zinc production, domestic smelters' demand for zinc mines is strong. However, the loss of imported zinc mines in October continued to expand compared with September, and domestic smelters are actively snapping up domestic zinc mines instead of importing, resulting in light spot - purchase transactions of imported zinc mines. It is difficult for the imported zinc - mine volume in October to increase further. In September, the imported refined - zinc volume was 22,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 57.03%. The cumulative imported refined - zinc volume from January to September was 258,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 19.27%. In September, 2,500 tons of refined zinc were exported. The LME 0 - 3 structure overseas once expanded to over $300 per ton, and the high - premium structure stimulated local - area deliveries. The Back structure weakened to below $100 per ton, but the LME zinc inventory remained below 40,000 tons, and the tight - supply pattern remained. Overall, the loss of zinc - ingot imports is over 4,000 yuan/ton, and the export window opens intermittently. It is expected that the zinc - ingot export volume of domestic smelters and traders will increase to about 10,000 tons [39][40]. 3.2.4. The "Silver October" Ends, and It's Difficult to Find Bright Spots in Demand in the Fourth Quarter - The galvanizing start - up rate was 55.82%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.23%. The galvanizing raw - material inventory was 12,660 tons, and the finished - product inventory was 367,000 tons. Overall, consumption in October was lower than expected, and black - metal prices were lackluster. Downstream pipe traders mainly made rigid purchases, and the sales of galvanized pipes were poor. Enterprises increased their finished - product inventory and reduced production to lower the start - up rate to prevent excessive inventory. The finished - product inventory increased slightly, and enterprises still plan to lower the start - up rate in the future to prevent inventory accumulation. In terms of die - cast zinc alloys, the start - up rate was 49.73%. The die - cast zinc raw - material inventory was 13,000 tons, and the finished - product inventory was 10,230 tons. Currently, the overall downstream demand is relatively weak. Traditional hardware orders such as luggage zippers, small ornaments, and medals are in weak demand, and the current overall demand for real - estate hardware orders is also weak. Recently, affected by aluminum and copper prices, alloy profit support is insufficient, and some enterprises have raised the alloy processing fee. Under this influence, downstream customers also have a certain wait - and - see attitude and mainly make rigid purchases. Looking forward to next week, some enterprises plan to take a holiday to digest in - plant inventory. The start - up rate of zinc - oxide enterprises was 58.45%, a month - on - month increase of 0.34%. The zinc - oxide raw - material inventory was 2,417 tons, and the finished - product inventory was 5,740 tons. In the rubber - grade zinc - oxide sector, orders from large - scale tire factories are relatively stable, but the demand from some small - and - medium - sized enterprises is weak. In the ceramic - grade zinc - oxide market, the demand in the coarse - ceramic market is still relatively average, and recently, some enterprises have reported that the demand in the high - end ceramic - grade zinc - oxide sector has also weakened. In addition, the demand for feed - grade and electronic - grade zinc oxide is relatively normal [51][52]. 3.2.5. Real - Estate Sales Continue to Hit Bottom, and Investment Declines Expand - The market trading momentum continues to decline. From January to September 2025, the year - on - year decline in real - estate development investment expanded, and the year - on - year decline in commercial - housing sales volume also expanded. From January to September, the national newly built commercial - housing sales area was 658 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%, and the decline expanded by 0.8 percentage points. Real - estate development investment decreased by 13.9% year - on - year cumulatively, and the decline expanded by 1 percentage point. New construction decreased by 18.9% year - on - year, and the decline narrowed by 0.6 percentage points. The completed - area decreased by 15.3% year - on - year, and the decline narrowed by 1.7 percentage points. The confidence in real - estate development investment is still weak. According to China Index Academy data, in September, the planned construction area of residential - land transactions in 300 cities decreased by 0.5% year - on - year, and the land - transfer fee decreased by 7.0% year - on - year. The year - on - year decline narrowed by 24.2 and 23.9 percentage points respectively compared with August. The industry's available funds are still under pressure, and the pressure on real - estate enterprises' funds directly affects the new - development and completion scale of the market. Currently, in addition to maintaining a positive attitude towards the development and construction of some products, enterprises mainly focus on optimizing and revitalizing existing inventory. In the short term, the overall scale - contraction situation in the industry will not change. In core cities, the incremental construction scale is expected to stabilize with the support of the fundamentals [66]. 3.2.6. The Policy of Trading in Old Cars for New Ones in the Auto Market Continues to Show Results - July and August are the traditional off - seasons for auto consumption, and the sales rush at the end of June overdrafted subsequent demand to a certain extent. However, the overall auto - market heat remained at a relatively high level, and the auto market still took the "dual - new" policy of trading in old cars for new ones and scrapping and renewing as the core growth point. In reality, affected by seasonal factors in summer and the transitional adjustment of the policy of trading in old cars for new ones, the growth rate slowed down periodically. In August, subsidies for trading in old cars for new ones restarted in various places, and many provinces refined the subsidy - distribution mechanism. Coupled with the intensification of local stimulus policies, the auto market showed a gradual recovery trend. According to the analysis of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the policy of trading in old cars for new ones continues to show results. Some regions that suspended the implementation of the policy resumed subsidies, and policies such as consumer - loan support stabilized consumer confidence. Enterprises continued to launch new models, helping the passenger - car market to operate stably, and sales increased year - on - year. According to the CAAM, in September, the production and sales of passenger cars reached 2.9 million and 2.859 million respectively, a month - on - month increase of 16% and 12.5% respectively, and a year - on - year increase of 15.9% and 13.2% respectively. From January to September, the production and sales of passenger cars reached 21.241 million and 21.246 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 13.9% and 13.7% respectively. In September, auto exports were 652,000, a month - on - month increase of 6.7% and a year - on - year increase of 21%. From January to September, auto exports were 4.95 million, a year - on - year increase of 14.8%. Many places have made frequent dynamic adjustments to the policy of trading in old cars for new ones. Some regions such as Jiangsu, Guangxi, and Qinghai have announced the suspension of auto - replacement and renewal subsidies. On the one hand, to ensure the orderly use of the third - and fourth - batch funds by the end of the year, the fund - use plan is refined by field and time. On the other hand, the national subsidy in 2025 is a phased measure, and it is difficult to have the same - scale subsidy in 2026. The exemption amount for new - energy vehicle purchase tax will be halved, and the consumer - loan discount rate will be weakened [72][73]. 3.2.7. The Scheduled Production of White Goods for Both Domestic Sales and Exports Declines - According to the latest scheduled - production reports of the three major white goods released by Industry Online, the total scheduled production of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in November 2025 is 2.847 million units, a 17.7% year - on - year decrease from the actual production in the same period last year. The scheduled production of all three major white