新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-25 海内外现货升水维持利多表现 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为135.09美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化-60元/吨至22380元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水30元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日-60元/吨至22320元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-35元/吨； 天津锌现货价较前一交易日-60元/吨至22340元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-10元/吨。 期货方面：2025-11-24沪锌主力合约开于22390元/吨，收于22390元/吨，较前一交易日-95元/吨，全天交易日成交 104516手，全天交易日持仓96310手，日内价格最高点达到22445元/吨，最低点达到22245元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-11-24，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为15.10万吨，较上期变化-0.17万吨。截止2025-11-24，LME 锌库存为47425吨，较上一交易日变化100吨。 市场分析 锌价回落现货市场存在补库行为，但社会库存增加，即将超过过去五年同期水平，现货流通性好转，仍以谨慎采 购为主。成本端，国产矿进口矿TC持续上涨，冶炼利润走高，冶炼积极性持续 ...

| 铝产业链期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年11月24日 | | | 周围观 | Z0015979 | | 价格及价差 现值 前值 涨跌 | | | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM A00铝 21380 | 21570 | -190.0 | -0.88% | 元/吨 | | SMM A00铝升贴水 0 | -10 | 10.0 | / | 元/肥 | | 长江 铝A00 21380 | 21570 | -190.0 | -0.88% | 元/吨 | | 长江 铝A00 升贴水 0 | -10 | 10.0 | / | 元/肥 | | 氧化铝(山东)-平均价 2770 | 2770 | 0.0 | 0.00% | 元/肥 | | 氧化铝(河南)-平均价 2860 | 2860 | 0.0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 氢化铝(山西)-平均价 2835 | 2840 | -5.0 | -0.18% | 元/肥 | | 氧化铝(广西)-平均价 2910 | 2910 | 0.0 | ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-21 国内社会库存重心持续下移 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为152.14美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化10元/吨至22430元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水30元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日10元/吨至22370元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-40元/吨； 天津锌现货价较前一交易日10元/吨至22390元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-10元/吨。 期货方面：2025-11-20沪锌主力合约开于22455元/吨，收于22380元/吨，较前一交易日-30元/吨，全天交易日成交54719 手，全天交易日持仓61797手，日内价格最高点达到22495元/吨，最低点达到22380元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-11-20，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为15.27万吨，较上期变化-0.39万吨。截止2025-11-20，LME 锌库存为46075吨，较上一交易日变化1000吨。 市场分析 基本面方面，11月国内矿TC进一步大幅度走低，海外矿TC进一步同步下调，冶炼厂积极采购内外矿，明年1季度 进口TC指导价格环比回落，短期TC仍不改回落趋势。冶炼端开始面临压力，随 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-20 国内现货贴水明显修复 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为129.76美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化100元/吨至22420元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水30元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日90元/吨至22360元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-45元/吨； 天津锌现货价较前一交易日110元/吨至22380元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-10元/吨。 期货方面：2025-11-19沪锌主力合约开于22360元/吨，收于22420元/吨，较前一交易日70元/吨，全天交易日成交91247 手，全天交易日持仓67487手，日内价格最高点达到22475元/吨，最低点达到22330元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-11-19，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为15.66万吨，较上期变化-0.13万吨。截止2025-11-19，LME 锌库存为45075吨，较上一交易日变化1550吨。 市场分析 海外库存增加，但现货升水依旧高位，国内现货贴水快速修复，社会库存重心有望持续下滑，锌绝对价格回落后， 下游对价格的接受度明显提升。基本面方面，11月国内矿TC进一步大幅度走低，海外 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-19 绝对价格回落后现货贴水明显修复 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为104.97美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化-80元/吨至22320元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水20元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日-90元/吨至22270元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-55元/吨； 天津锌现货价较前一交易日-90元/吨至22270元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-30元/吨。 期货方面：2025-11-18沪锌主力合约开于22460元/吨，收于22310元/吨，较前一交易日-130元/吨，全天交易日成交 93469手，全天交易日持仓82326手，日内价格最高点达到22465元/吨，最低点达到22265元/吨。 单边：谨慎偏多。 套利：中性。 风险 1、海外矿预期外扰动。2、国内消费不及预期。3、流动性变化超预期。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 库存方面：截至2025-11-18，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为15.66万吨，较上期变化-0.13万吨。截止2025-11-18，LME 锌库存为43525吨，较上一交易日变化3550吨 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The research report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals including copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, etc., and provides corresponding trading strategies based on macro - environment, supply - demand relationship, and cost - profit analysis [1][9][17] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai copper 2512 closed at 86,840 yuan/ton, up 0.16%. Spot trading improved slightly, with different premiums in different regions [1] - **Important Information**: Weak ADP employment data in the US, potential end of government shutdown, and production changes in some copper mines [1] - **Logic Analysis**: Loose macro - environment, tight supply in the short - term, and demand supported by power grid tenders [2][4] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for one - sided trading, long - term bullish; possible phased rebound in ratio for arbitrage; wait - and - see for options [5][6][7] Alumina - **Market Review**: The 2601 contract of alumina fell 5 yuan to 2,821 yuan/ton, and spot prices in different regions showed different trends [9] - **Related Information**: Procurement prices in different regions, government actions in Guinea, production capacity changes, and cost data [10][11][12] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply - demand surplus, expected reduction in production, but new investment pressure at the end of the year [14] - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term narrow - range rebound, beware of selling pressure; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [15][16] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The 2601 contract of Shanghai aluminum rose 190 yuan to 21,880 yuan/ton, and spot prices in different regions increased [18] - **Related Information**: US economic data, government shutdown news, inventory changes, and production capacity changes [18][19][21] - **Trading Logic**: Loose macro - environment, tight overseas supply, and domestic demand with certain resilience [22] - **Trading Strategy**: Maintain a volatile and strong trend for one - sided trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [23][24] Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The 2601 contract of casting aluminum alloy rose 175 yuan to 21,245 yuan/ton, and spot prices showed different trends [26] - **Related Information**: US economic data, cost - profit data, and changes in warehouse receipts [26][27] - **Trading Logic**: Loose macro - environment, tight waste aluminum supply, and cost support [30] - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum alloy prices are strong along with aluminum prices; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [31] Zinc - **Market Review**: The 2512 contract of Shanghai zinc fell 0.18% to 22,680 yuan/ton, and spot trading was cold [33] - **Related Information**: Processing fee guidance price, inventory changes, and production reduction expectations in mines and smelters [34][35] - **Logic Analysis**: Tight supply at the mine end, reduced smelter profits, and limited upward space [35] - **Trading Strategy**: Range - bound for one - sided trading; hold SHFE - LME arbitrage; wait - and - see for options [37] Lead - **Market Review**: The 2512 contract of Shanghai lead rose 0.97% to 17,660 yuan/ton, and spot trading was okay [39] - **Related Information**: Inventory changes, profit conditions of recycling enterprises, and supply of recycled lead [40] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is recovering, demand is weakening, and prices are under pressure [41] - **Trading Strategy**: Short at high levels for one - sided trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options [42] Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel NI2512 fell 740 to 118,710 yuan/ton, and spot premiums changed [44][45] - **Important Information**: Indonesia's policy on nickel smelters [47] - **Logic Analysis**: Loose supply - demand, limited rebound, and expected weakening in the off - season [47] - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds for one - sided trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options [48][49][50] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract of stainless steel SS2512 fell 95 to 12,425 yuan/ton, and spot prices were in a certain range [52] - **Important Information**: Decline in high - nickel pig iron prices and export price cuts by Indonesian enterprises [53] - **Logic Analysis**: Weak trading atmosphere, abundant cold - rolled supply, and downward - trending costs [53][55] - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds for one - sided trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage [56][57] Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2512 closed at 292,440 yuan/ton, up 1.75%, and spot prices rose [59] - **Related Information**: US economic data and decline in Indonesian tin exports [60] - **Logic Analysis**: Potential end of US government shutdown, tight supply at the mine end, and slow demand recovery [61] - **Trading Strategy**: Tin prices may test previous highs; wait - and - see for options [62][63] Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: Policies on new energy consumption and regulation [65] - **Logic Analysis**: Reduced demand for polysilicon, increased power prices in some areas, and limited upward space [66] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Range - bound operation for one - sided trading; long Si2512 and short Si2601 for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money put options to take profit [67][68] Polysilicon - **Important Information**: News about the potential establishment of a storage platform [70] - **Logic Analysis**: Reduced supply and demand, marginal improvement in supply - demand, and short - term range - bound [70] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Range - bound operation and buy at low levels for one - sided trading; long PS2512 and short PS2601 for arbitrage; no suggestion for options [72][73][74] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The 2601 contract of lithium carbonate fell 180 to 86,580 yuan/ton, and spot prices rose [76] - **Important Information**: Policies on new energy, progress of a lithium salt project, and growth in global energy storage cell shipments [77] - **Logic Analysis**: Increased demand and supply - side disturbances support high - level prices [78] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level operation in the short - term; wait - and - see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the money put options [79][80][82]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View - The smelters' strong demand for zinc ore may lead to a further decline in TC. Although the import loss of imported ore is still significant, the imported ore TC has started to fall. The domestic supply pressure remains, but if the TC continues to decline, the supply - side pressure is expected to ease. The export window is fully open, but the uncertainty of LME far - month contract delivery restrains export enthusiasm, and the overseas inventory is difficult to show a trend increase. Micro - data is turning from bearish to bullish, and the macro environment remains positive, but the sustainability of zinc consumption needs to be tested [4]. 3. Summary by Category Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $132.96/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,250 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 40 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,260 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 90 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,230 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 60 yuan/ton [1]. - **Futures**: On October 30, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,490 yuan/ton, closed at 22,365 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 111,090 lots, and the open interest was 119,758 lots. The highest price was 22,540 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,325 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory**: As of October 30, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 161,500 tons, down 2,000 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 34,900 tons, down 300 tons from the previous trading day [3].

Report Date - The report is dated October 29, 2025 [1][5][8] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - The report provides trend forecasts for various commodities, including copper, zinc, lead, etc., with most commodities expected to show oscillatory trends [2] Summary by Commodity Metals - **Copper**: Awaiting the Fed's interest rate decision, prices are oscillating. The trend strength is 1 [2][5][7] - **Zinc**: Continuing to oscillate. The trend strength is 0 [2][8][10] - **Lead**: Overseas inventories are continuously decreasing, supporting prices. The trend strength is 0 [2][11] - **Aluminum**: Continuing to oscillate. Alumina is in short - term sideways movement, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend strength for all is 0 [2][13][14] - **Nickel**: There is a game between smelting inventory accumulation and nickel ore concerns, and nickel prices are oscillating in a narrow range. Stainless steel has limited downward potential and lacks upward drivers. The trend strength for both is 0 [2][15][17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot tender price is at a high level, showing a strong - side operation. The trend strength is 1 [2][18][21] - **Industrial Silicon**: Warehouse receipts are being cleared, and there is obvious bottom support. The trend strength is 1 [2][22][25] - **Polysilicon**: Market sentiment has cooled, and there is a risk of a decline. The trend strength is -1 [2][23][25] - **Iron Ore**: Oscillating repeatedly. The trend strength is 0 [2][26][27] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Driven by macro sentiment, steel prices are oscillating on the strong side. The trend strength for both is 0 [2][28][31] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide**: Oscillating in a wide range. The trend strength for both is 0 [2][33][35] - **Coke**: Oscillating on the strong side. The trend strength is 0 [2][36][38] - **Coking Coal**: Supported by fundamentals, oscillating on the strong side. The trend strength is 0 [2][37][38] Others - **Log**: Oscillating repeatedly. The trend strength is 0 [2][39][42] - **Para - Xylene**: In a high - level oscillatory market. The trend strength is 0 [2][43][48] - **PTA**: Oil prices have corrected, and valuations have declined. The trend strength is 0 [2][43][48] - **MEG**: In a short - term oscillatory market. The trend strength is 0 [2][43][48] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Butadiene is weak, and the price of cis - butadiene rubber is under pressure. The trend strength is -1 [2][50][52] - **LLDPE**: Mainly oscillating. No trend strength provided [2] - **PP**: Stopping falling in the short term and oscillating in the medium term. No trend strength provided [2] - **Caustic Soda**: The far - month valuation is suppressed. No trend strength provided [2] - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. No trend strength provided [2] - **Methanol**: Oscillating under pressure. No trend strength provided [2] - **Urea**: Spot trading has weakened, and pressure is gradually increasing. No trend strength provided [2] - **Styrene**: Mainly oscillating in the short term. No trend strength provided [2] - **Soda Ash**: There is little change in the spot market. No trend strength provided [2] - **LPG**: The upward driving force is limited, and attention should be paid to cost changes. No trend strength provided [2] - **Propylene**: Supply and demand are relatively loose, and it is oscillating weakly in the short term. No trend strength provided [2] - **PVC**: Oscillating at a low level. No trend strength provided [2] - **Fuel Oil**: Retreating in the short term, with continued increased volatility. No trend strength provided [2] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Temporarily stronger than high - sulfur fuel oil, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market is temporarily stable. No trend strength provided [2] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Oscillating and consolidating. No trend strength provided [2] - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: Rebounding in the short term due to positive demand feedback. No trend strength provided [4] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Oscillating at a low level. No trend strength provided [4] - **Pure Benzene**: Mainly oscillating in the short term. No trend strength provided [4] - **Palm Oil**: The de - stocking in the producing areas is slow, and attention should be paid to the lower support. No trend strength provided [4] - **Soybean Oil**: US soybeans have rebounded, and the oil - meal ratio has declined. No trend strength provided [4] - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans are strong, and Dalian soybean meal is rebounding and oscillating. No trend strength provided [4] - **Soybean No.1**: Oscillating on the strong side. No trend strength provided [4] - **Corn**: Oscillating weakly. No trend strength provided [4] - **Sugar**: Weak overseas and strong domestic. No trend strength provided [4] - **Cotton**: The cost of new cotton has increased, supporting the futures price of cotton. No trend strength provided [4] - **Egg**: Maintaining adjustment. No trend strength provided [4] - **Live Pig**: The sentiment in the spot market has declined, awaiting confirmation. No trend strength provided [4] - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the spot market. No trend strength provided [4]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily research report on non - ferrous metals, covering copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, cast aluminum alloy, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate [1] Group 2: Market Analysis of Each Metal Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Copper 2512 contract closed at 88,370 yuan/ton, up 1.73%, with an increase of 29,581 lots in the Shanghai Copper Index to 613,100 lots. The spot copper price soared, weakening downstream procurement sentiment, and the spot discount widened [1] - **Important Information**: The slowdown of the US core CPI in September increased the expectation of two interest rate cuts by the Fed this year. Indonesia may allow copper concentrate exports. SMM estimated that the electrolytic copper output in October would drop to 1.0825 million tons [1][3] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro sentiment improved, and the supply of copper ore was tight, while consumption was weak with some resilience. The market was expected to have an increase in supply and weak demand this week [1][3] - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a long - on - dips strategy for single - side trading, continue to hold cross - market positive spreads, and consider cross - period positive spreads after the domestic inventory starts to decline. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards options [4][5][6] Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2601 contract rose 11 yuan to 2,829 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 5,441 lots to 488,900 lots. The spot price showed a narrow decline [7] - **Related Information**: Xinjiang and Shandong had alumina spot transactions. The national alumina inventory increased by 44,000 tons to 4.061 million tons as of October 23. The Australian alumina price decreased [8] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand surplus of alumina increased after the downstream stocking was completed. The price was expected to bottom out in the short term, and a rebound might occur if production cuts expanded [11] - **Trading Strategy**: There is an expectation of further production cuts in November for single - side trading, with a short - term narrow rebound. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage and options [11][12] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2512 contract rose 130 yuan to 21,360 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 28,105 lots to 635,200 lots. The spot price increased [14] - **Related Information**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations reached a basic consensus. Some overseas aluminum smelters had production cuts. The electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased slightly [14][15] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro sentiment was positive. Overseas supply was tight, and domestic consumption had some resilience [18] - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly following the external market for single - side trading. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage and options [19] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The cast aluminum alloy 2512 contract rose 35 yuan to 20,715 yuan/ton. The spot price remained stable [21] - **Related Information**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations reached a basic consensus. The cast aluminum alloy warehouse receipts increased, and the import and export data showed certain changes [21][22][24] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro factors were positive. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and demand had some support [25] - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum alloy price is expected to fluctuate strongly following the aluminum price for single - side trading. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage and options [26][27] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Zinc 2512 rose 0.34% to 22,365 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 94 lots to 213,500 lots. The spot trading was not improved [29] - **Related Information**: The domestic zinc inventory increased slightly. Shengda Resources' subsidiary was approved to resume work [30] - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic supply was abundant, and the external market was strong. The export profit widened, and the Shanghai Zinc price was likely to rise [31][33] - **Trading Strategy**: Try to go long on dips for single - side trading. Consider a buy - SHFE and sell - LME strategy based on export conditions. Sell out - of - the - money put options [34] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Lead 2512 fell 0.06% to 17,520 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 6,702 lots to 129,200 lots. The spot price decreased, and the procurement enthusiasm declined [36] - **Related Information**: A large lead - battery enterprise in East China planned to cut production. The social inventory of lead ingots decreased [37] - **Logic Analysis**: The short - term lead price was driven up by funds, but the medium - long - term fundamentals were under pressure [38] - **Trading Strategy**: Go short on rallies for single - side trading. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage and options [39] Nickel - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Nickel main contract NI2512 rose 420 to 122,400 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 12,478 lots. The spot premium of Jinchuan nickel decreased [41] - **Important Information**: Indonesia promoted a cooperation project with Huayou Cobalt. A new nickel brand applied for LME certification. Norilsk Nickel maintained its 2025 production forecast [42] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro sentiment improved, but the LME nickel inventory limited the upward space of the nickel price. The price was expected to fluctuate within a range [42] - **Trading Strategy**: The nickel price is expected to fluctuate within a range for single - side trading. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage. Sell a wide - straddle combination of the 2512 contract for options [43][44][45] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The stainless - steel main contract SS2512 rose 10 to 12,815 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 27,223 lots. The spot price was stable [47] - **Important Information**: The export of Indonesian stainless steel to Taiwan increased, and a high - end stainless - steel project in Jiangsu was progressing [49] - **Logic Analysis**: Terminal demand was not optimistic at the end of the peak season, and the cost support was not strong. The price was boosted by the reduction of warehouse receipts and general commodity price increases [49] - **Trading Strategy**: The stainless - steel price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, with attention to the upper resistance. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage [50][51] Tin - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Tin 2512 contract closed at 286,720 yuan/ton, up 3,260 yuan/ton or 1.15%, and the position increased by 6,739 lots to 75,935 lots. The spot price increased slightly, and the trading was not active [53] - **Related Information**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations reached a basic consensus. The US CPI growth was lower than expected. The domestic mobile phone shipment data was released [54][56] - **Logic Analysis**: The Fed's interest rate cut expectation and domestic policies were positive for the tin price, but the terminal demand recovery was slow. The supply of tin ore was tight [57] - **Trading Strategy**: The tin price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to positive domestic macro expectations and the Fed's interest rate cut expectation. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards options [58][59] Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: The industrial silicon export volume in September was 70,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8% and a year - on - year increase of 8%. The import volume in January - September decreased by 64% year - on - year [61] - **Logic Analysis**: The production in the northwest was at a high level, and the southwest would reduce production in November. The demand was stable, and there was a possibility of inventory reduction. The short - term price was expected to fluctuate [62] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Go long on dips for single - side trading. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money put options [64][65][66] Polysilicon - **Important Information**: The domestic new photovoltaic installed capacity from January to September was 240.27GW, a year - on - year increase of 49% [68] - **Logic Analysis**: The polysilicon production in the southwest would decrease in November. The demand for silicon wafers was average, and there was a possibility of inventory accumulation. The price was expected to strengthen after capacity integration [69] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Hold long positions for single - side trading, conduct reverse spreads on far - month contracts for arbitrage, and hold long call options [70][71][72] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The lithium carbonate 2601 contract rose 2,020 to 81,900 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 50,361 lots. The spot price increased [74] - **Important Information**: The performance of Salt Lake Co., Ltd., EVE Energy, and Shengxin Lithium Energy was announced. Whengsheng Technology achieved large - scale supply of battery materials [75][77] - **Logic Analysis**: The demand was driven by the growth of power and energy storage, and the supply of lithium ore was tight. The inventory and warehouse receipts decreased. The market was bullish [77] - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on pullbacks for single - side trading. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money put options [78] Group 3: Data Tables and Graphs - The report also provides daily data tables for each metal, including price, spread, inventory, and other information, as well as graphs showing the trends of price, spread, inventory, etc. for each metal [80][91]

Report Title - Nonferrous Metals Weekly - Zinc [1] Report Date - October 27, 2025 [2] Analyst Information - Analyst: Qi Yurong - Qualification Number: F03100031 - Investment Consultation Certificate Number: Z0021060 - Contact: 010 - 8229 5006 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - Macro sentiment has improved, and overseas inventories have continued to decline. The backwardation structure of LME zinc has deepened, driving SHFE zinc to oscillate upward. However, domestic demand remains weak, and although social inventory accumulation has temporarily stopped, it is still at a relatively high level. There is still pressure on the upside of zinc prices. It is expected that zinc prices will maintain a range - bound pattern in the short term, with the operating range referring to 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton. Continued attention should be paid to changes in macro sentiment and the opening of the ingot export window [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Price Movement**: SMM 1 zinc ingot average price rose 1.56% to 22,120 yuan/ton; SHFE zinc main contract closing price rose 2.48% to 22,355 yuan/ton; LME zinc closing price (electronic trading) rose 2.62% to 3,019.5 US dollars/ton [12] - **Basis and Spread**: Data on basis, LME zinc premium/discount (0 - 3), trading - to - holding ratio, and various spreads in different regions and contract months are presented, but no specific summary data is given [14][16] 2. Winter Stockpiling + High Refinery Operation, TC Decline 2.1 Zinc Concentrate - **Port Inventory**: As of October 24, the inventory of imported zinc concentrate at Lianyungang Port was 150,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons. The total inventory of 7 ports including Fangchenggang, Lianyungang, etc. was 391,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,800 tons [25] - **Profit**: As of October 23, the production profit of zinc concentrate enterprises was 4,224 yuan/metal ton. In September, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 505,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.15% and a year - on - year increase of 24.94%. From January to September, the cumulative import volume was 4,008,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 40.49% [32] - **TC**: The CZSPT group set the import processing fee for the fourth quarter at 120 - 140 US dollars/dry ton. Domestic TC has been declining, with the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee dropping from 3,650 yuan/metal ton in late September to 3,250 yuan/metal ton on October 24 [33][36] 2.2 Refined Zinc - **Production**: Zinc prices have rebounded, but TC has declined, and the production profit of refined zinc enterprises has continued to fall. As of October 23, the production profit of refined zinc enterprises was - 694 yuan/ton. In September, the domestic refined zinc output was about 600,000 tons, a slight month - on - month decline [44] - **Import**: The import profit window is closed. As of October 24, the import profit of refined zinc was - 5,426.56 yuan/ton. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 258,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 61,600 tons [47] 3. Demand Falling Short of Expectations, Slight Decline in Galvanizing Operation - **Operation Rate**: The operating rate of galvanizing enterprises decreased by 0.57 percentage points to 57.48%. Black prices were lackluster, and terminal procurement was less than expected. Galvanizing enterprises reduced their operation to prevent excessive inventory, and some enterprises may further cut production [54] - **Inventory**: Galvanizing enterprises' raw material inventory decreased due to high zinc prices and cautious procurement by downstream users. Finished product inventory increased due to poor demand [57] 4. Poor Demand, Accumulation of Die - Casting Zinc Alloy Finished Products - **Price**: The prices of Zamak3 and Zamak5 zinc alloys increased. Zamak3 zinc alloy average price rose 1.51% to 22,815 yuan/ton, and Zamak5 zinc alloy average price rose 1.48% to 23,365 yuan/ton [63] - **Operation Rate**: The operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 53.13%. Terminal demand weakened, leading to a decline in alloy operation. Some enterprises arranged holidays to consume finished product inventory, and the sector's operation may further decline [66] - **Inventory**: Raw material inventory increased as there were long - term order arrivals during the week despite high zinc prices and cautious procurement. Finished product inventory increased due to poor terminal demand and slow shipment [69] 5. Production and Sales in Balance, Slight Fluctuation in Zinc Oxide Finished Product Inventory - **Price**: The average price of zinc oxide ≥99.7% increased by 1.43% to 21,300 yuan/ton [77] - **Operation Rate**: The operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises decreased by 0.77 percentage points to 56.36%. Some enterprises were affected by recent meetings, and the operating rate declined. It is expected to return to normal this week, and the operation rate may rise with the resumption of some enterprises that had holidays during the National Day [80] - **Inventory**: Raw material inventory decreased due to high zinc prices and relatively high prices of some raw materials. Finished product inventory increased slightly as enterprises basically maintained a balance between production and sales [83] 6. High Social Inventory of Zinc Ingots - **SHFE and LME Inventory**: As of October 23, the SMM zinc ingot three - place inventory was 153,000 tons, with slight fluctuations. The inventory in Shanghai decreased due to fast downstream pick - up, while the inventory in Tianjin increased significantly due to more weekend arrivals, and the inventory in Guangdong reached a nearly three - year high. As of October 24, SHFE inventory was 109,200 tons, showing a decline. As of October 23, LME inventory was 37,600 tons, continuing to decline [92][95] - **Monthly Supply - Demand Balance**: The monthly supply - demand balance table shows the situation of production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance from January 2024 to August 2025 [101]