证券研究报告 | 行业专题 | 食品饮料 把握新品新渠道中的结构性成长机会 ——大众品 25Q3 业绩前瞻 ❑ 投资要点 食品饮料 报告日期：2025 年 10 月 12 日 行业评级: 看好(维持) 分析师：孙天一 执业证书号：S1230521070002 suntianyi@stocke.com.cn 分析师：杜宛泽 执业证书号：S1230521070001 17621373969 duwanze@stocke.com.cn 分析师：张家祯 执业证书号：S1230523080001 zhangjiazhen@stocke.com.cn 分析师：满静雅 执业证书号：S1230524100004 manjingya@stocke.com.cn 相关报告 1 《白酒关注绩优和改革，大众 品首推青岛啤酒》 2025.03.29 2 《春糖反馈平稳，港股业绩 密集发布》 2025.03.22 3 《大众品 2025 年十大预 测》 2025.03.20 ❑ 风险提示 原材料价格大幅上涨、终端需求疲软或需求修复不及预期、行业数据存在主观分 类和筛选，存在实际情况与数据结论不符的风险。 行业专题 http://www. ...

Summary of Baijiu Co. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Baijiu Co. (百润股份) - **Market Capitalization**: Approximately 25 billion RMB, considered relatively reasonable for investment [9] Industry Insights - **Whiskey Market Potential**: The domestic whiskey market is in its early stages, with an estimated size of 5 to 6 billion RMB, compared to 600 billion RMB for baijiu and 300 billion RMB for beer [15] - **Production Capacity**: Planned production capacity for domestic whiskey is around 250,000 kiloliters, corresponding to a market space of approximately 17 billion RMB [23] - **Market Growth**: If consumer habits for whiskey in dining settings are successfully cultivated, the market capacity could reach between 10 billion to 18 billion RMB [23] Key Business Developments - **Whiskey Project Investment**: Baijiu Co. has invested about 4 billion RMB in its whiskey project, holding 80% of the domestic whiskey industry's oak barrel reserves [2][5] - **Product Launches**: The company has introduced new products such as "Drunken Jelly Wine" and a 12-degree light fragrance whiskey, with expectations for good performance in 2026 [2][4] - **Marketing Strategies**: The company is actively promoting its whiskey products through exhibitions, tasting events, and collaborations with restaurants to create a whiskey dining atmosphere [10] Financial Performance - **2025 Outlook**: The overall performance for 2025 is expected to be stable, with potential growth in the second half of the year as the pre-mixed liquor business is anticipated to recover [4][24] - **Sales Trends**: The main product line has shown resilience, with orders stabilizing after a decline in the first half of the year [4] Technical and Talent Development - **Technical Capabilities**: The company possesses advanced distillation technology, including pot stills and column stills, and has trained several distillers in Scotland, enhancing its soft power in the whiskey sector [5][7] - **Product Diversity**: Baijiu Co. has developed various whiskey styles and barrel types, including unique Chinese characteristics, to cater to diverse consumer preferences [8] Market Positioning - **Consumer Demographics**: The target demographic for whiskey consumers aligns closely with that of pre-mixed liquor, primarily young individuals, facilitating cross-promotion [14] - **Future Growth Potential**: The company is well-positioned for future growth, with expectations for significant market expansion starting in 2026 [24] Conclusion - **Investment Timing**: Current market conditions present a favorable opportunity for investment in Baijiu Co., with anticipated growth driven by new product launches and a recovering market [9][24]

Summary of Baijiu Co. Conference Call Company Overview - Baijiu Co. is the absolute leader in China's pre-mixed liquor market with a market share of 72%, significantly surpassing competitors, forming an oligopoly structure [2][4][9] - The company has established a comprehensive product matrix covering price ranges from 5 to 15 RMB and alcohol content from 3% to 12% [2][9] Industry Insights - The penetration rate and average price of China's pre-mixed liquor market are lower than the global average, indicating substantial growth potential [2][6][7] - The current market size of China's pre-mixed liquor is approximately 20 billion USD, while the global market is around 510 billion USD [6][7] - China's pre-mixed liquor consumption accounts for only 2% of beer consumption, compared to 7% globally, suggesting significant room for growth [6][7] Market Dynamics - The pre-mixed liquor market in China is characterized by a concentrated oligopoly, with the top three companies holding over 90% market share [5] - Offline sales account for about 90% of Baijiu Co.'s revenue, with major sales channels including hypermarkets, supermarkets, and e-commerce platforms [5][9] Growth Projections - The pre-mixed liquor market is expected to see a volume growth of 4.4% and a sales revenue growth of 6.6% in 2024 [2][4] - Baijiu Co. is well-positioned for stable growth due to its established market presence and ongoing product innovations [3][16] Whisky Business Development - Baijiu Co. is actively expanding its whisky business, having established four production bases and aiming for a coordinated scale of 1 million barrels [2][12][13] - The Chinese whisky market is in its infancy but shows great potential, particularly among consumers aged 18 to 30 who prefer high-priced products [10][11] Recent Product Launches - In March 2023, Baijiu Co. launched the Bailede blended whisky targeting the mid-low end market, followed by the high-end single malt whisky brand Laizhou in June 2023 [14] - The market response to the Laizhou brand, priced between 239 to 499 RMB, has been positive [14] Brand Building Efforts - The company is enhancing brand recognition by participating in international awards, which has yielded some success [15] Conclusion - Baijiu Co. is positioned for continued growth in both the pre-mixed liquor and whisky markets, supported by a strong product matrix, effective sales channels, and strategic brand initiatives [2][16]

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment rating for the low-alcohol and beverage sectors, recommending specific companies based on their performance and market positioning [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the structural recovery in the consumer goods sector, highlighting the importance of channel dynamics and product innovation in driving growth [2][25]. - It identifies key players in the beer segment, such as Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer, which are expected to outperform due to their strong regional presence and operational efficiency [2][11]. - The report also notes the challenges faced by the seasoning and food supply sectors, particularly due to weak downstream demand, but suggests potential for recovery as the restaurant industry stabilizes [2][26]. Summary by Sections Beer Sector - The beer sector experienced a revenue of 41.73 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 2.8% [7]. - Major companies like Qingdao Beer and China Resources Beer showed mixed performance, with Qingdao Beer achieving a revenue increase of 1.9% [11][12]. - The report highlights the impact of channel structure on revenue performance, with companies like Yanjing and Zhujiang benefiting from a higher proportion of non-immediate sales channels [11][12]. Yellow Wine Sector - The yellow wine sector reported a revenue of 1.93 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.4% [26]. - Kuaijishan, a leading player, achieved a double-digit growth rate of 11% in the same period, driven by its high-end and youth-oriented strategies [26][27]. - The report indicates a trend of market share concentration among leading companies, with Kuaijishan and Guyue Longshan capturing a larger portion of the market [31]. Seasoning and Food Supply Sector - The seasoning and food supply sector faced revenue pressure due to weak restaurant demand, but companies that successfully launched new products or expanded channels showed resilience [2][26]. - The report suggests that a recovery in restaurant demand could lead to increased supply chain needs, benefiting leading companies in the sector [2][26]. Beverage Sector - The beverage sector is highlighted for its high growth potential, particularly for companies like Dongpeng Beverage, which is expanding its national presence [2]. - The report recommends focusing on companies that are effectively navigating the competitive landscape and capitalizing on emerging consumer trends [2][26].

Core Viewpoint - The recent significant equity transaction involving Baijiu giant Bairun Co., Ltd. (百润股份) has attracted attention, with Wenzhou businessman Liu Jianguo acquiring a 6.01% stake for 1.47 billion yuan, indicating a strategic investment in the ready-to-drink cocktail sector amidst the company's fluctuating performance [1][7][10]. Company Overview - Bairun Co., Ltd. is a leading player in the ready-to-drink cocktail market, with its "RIO" brand holding the top market share in China [7]. - The company has faced challenges, with a revenue decline of 6.61% to 3.048 billion yuan and a net profit drop of 11.15% to 719 million yuan in 2024 [7][11]. - In the first half of the year, Bairun's revenue fell by 8.56% to 1.489 billion yuan, and net profit decreased by 3.32% to 389 million yuan, with both the ready-to-drink and flavoring segments experiencing declines [7][11]. Investment Rationale - Liu Jianguo's investment in Bairun is seen as a long-term financial commitment, aimed at enhancing the company's shareholder structure and bringing in resources for development, without seeking management involvement [8][10]. - The acquisition price of 23.337 yuan per share represents a significant discount from the peak price of 141.94 yuan per share in February 2021, reflecting an over 80% decline in share value [9]. Strategic Implications - Liu Jianguo's history of identifying undervalued consumer brands and his experience in capital operations may provide Bairun with strategic advantages, particularly in channel optimization and high-end market positioning [11]. - The potential synergy between Liu's experience in the golf industry and Bairun's beverage sector could lead to cross-industry opportunities, enhancing brand visibility and market reach [11]. Future Outlook - The transaction is viewed as a mutually beneficial arrangement for both Liu Jianguo and Bairun's current controlling shareholder, Liu Xiaodong, as it aligns with their respective strategic goals [10]. - Bairun's ongoing efforts to expand into the whiskey market may further enhance its growth narrative, positioning the company for future success in the evolving beverage landscape [11].

Summary of Baijiu Co. Conference Call Industry Overview - The pre-mixed alcoholic beverage market in China is expected to experience rapid expansion, driven by changes in consumer demographics, channel development, and consumption scenarios, similar to the Japanese market [2][5][6] - The current scale of the pre-mixed beverage market in China is approximately 70 billion yuan in production and 150 billion yuan in retail [6] - The whisky market in China has seen significant growth, with retail sales increasing from about 1 billion yuan in 2013 to an estimated 55-60 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of around 20% [17] Company Insights - Baijiu Co. is positioned as a leading player in the pre-mixed beverage market, holding over 60% market share [2][7] - The company has introduced innovative products such as jelly wine and the light enjoyment series, contributing to revenue growth [2][14] - Baijiu Co. has established a clear product matrix with three core offerings: 3-degree light, 5-degree refreshing, and 8-degree strong beverages [10] Key Points from the Conference Call - **Operational Turnaround**: The company anticipates a turning point in operations in Q3, with expected revenue growth driven by stable performance of the 358 series and new product contributions [2][4] - **Whisky Business Growth**: Baijiu Co. has become the largest whisky producer in China, with projected whisky revenue reaching 300 million yuan for the year [3][22] - **Marketing Strategy**: The company has refined its marketing approach since 2016, focusing on a combination of online and offline strategies to enhance cost efficiency and drive sales growth [9] - **Product Development**: The company has successfully launched new products targeting specific consumer segments, such as the micro-drunk series aimed at young women and the refreshing series for home dining [11][12] Competitive Landscape - The pre-mixed beverage market is expected to see a concentration of leading brands while smaller brands become more fragmented [8] - Baijiu Co.'s long-standing presence and continuous innovation provide it with a competitive edge in the market [7] Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about the growth potential of both its pre-mixed beverage and whisky segments, with expectations of improved revenue and profit margins in the coming quarters [15][22] - The introduction of new products is expected to complement existing offerings and fill gaps in the market, particularly in the mid-alcohol segment [14][15] Additional Insights - The whisky segment is primarily targeted at young male consumers aged 18-29, with a focus on home consumption and small gatherings [17] - Baijiu Co. has established a dual-brand strategy with Bailede and Laizhou, aiming to enhance market penetration and brand recognition [18][22]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The pre-mixed beverage business is under pressure, while the whiskey business has significant growth potential that needs to be demonstrated [5] - The company experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025, with revenue of 1.489 billion yuan, down 8.56% year-on-year, and a net profit of 389 million yuan, down 3.32% year-on-year [5][6] - The company is actively expanding its distributor network, which increased by 200 to a total of 2,328 distributors, and expects revenue growth from new products and improved sales in the second half of 2025 [6] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 70.33%, with a significant improvement in cash flow, turning from a negative 215 million yuan to a positive 273 million yuan [7] - The company forecasts net profits of 765 million yuan, 931 million yuan, and 1.123 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.35%, 21.75%, and 20.56% [7][8] - The current price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is projected to be 39, 32, and 26 times for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [7][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Cautious Accumulate" [5][12] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.489 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 8.56%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 356 million yuan, down 9.04% year-on-year [5] - Revenue from the pre-mixed drinks and flavoring segments both declined year-on-year, with pre-mixed drinks generating 1.297 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.35%, and flavoring generating 169 million yuan, a decrease of 3.91% [5] - The decline in revenue was primarily driven by offline channels, while online revenue for pre-mixed drinks remained relatively stable, with a slight decrease of 0.57% [5][6] - The company has experienced five consecutive quarters of negative revenue growth, with significant declines in the North and West China markets, while the South China market showed growth [5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a gross margin of 70.33% in the first half of 2025, an increase of 0.25 percentage points year-on-year, mainly driven by the flavoring segment [5][6] - The sales expense ratio decreased significantly, primarily due to a reduction in advertising and storage costs, with the sales expense ratio down 4.18 percentage points to 20.21% [5] - The forecast for earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 0.74 yuan, 0.85 yuan, and 0.92 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 37.97, 32.87, and 30.29 [5][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The pre-mixed cocktail business remains under pressure, while the whiskey segment is expected to provide new growth momentum [4][9] - The company has launched new products in the pre-mixed cocktail category and is focusing on expanding its whiskey offerings [7][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 1.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 390 million yuan, down 3.3% year-on-year [4] - The sales volume of alcoholic products in the first half of 2025 was 15.03 million boxes, a decline of 12.68% year-on-year, attributed to weak demand for pre-mixed cocktails [5] Product and Channel Analysis - The company’s main business revenue from alcoholic products was 1.297 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, down 9.35% year-on-year [5] - The digital retail channel showed resilience, generating revenue of 155 million yuan, a slight decline of 0.57% year-on-year, while offline channels saw a revenue drop of 9.63% [5] Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 70.33%, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.26 percentage points [6] - The company reduced its sales expense ratio to 20.21% in the first half of 2025, down 4.18 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to optimized expense allocation [6] Future Outlook - The company is enhancing its product matrix for pre-mixed cocktails and has introduced new flavors to stabilize category growth [7] - The whiskey business is expected to drive revenue growth, with the company having launched new whiskey products and expanding its distribution channels [8][9] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 767 million, 909 million, and 1.055 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a downward revision of 5% for 2025 [9] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 38x for 2025, 32x for 2026, and 28x for 2027 [9]

Core Viewpoint - The report on Bairun Co., Ltd. indicates a continued adjustment in the ready-to-drink (RTD) liquor segment, while there are expectations for growth in the whisky category, leading to a "buy" rating for the company [1][4]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Bairun's revenue was 1.489 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.56%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 389 million yuan, down 3.32% year-on-year [2]. - In Q2 2025, revenue was 752 million yuan, a decline of 8.98% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 208 million yuan, down 10.85% year-on-year [2]. - The RTD liquor segment saw revenue of 1.297 billion yuan, down 9.35% year-on-year, while the food flavoring segment generated 169 million yuan, down 3.91% year-on-year [2]. Product and Channel Analysis - The RTD liquor segment continues to face challenges, but new products like "Mikushen" are expected to perform well, while whisky products are gradually contributing to revenue growth [2][4]. - Revenue from offline channels was 1.311 billion yuan, down 9.63% year-on-year, while digital retail channels generated 155 million yuan, a slight decrease of 0.57% [2]. Profitability and Cost Structure - The net profit margin after deducting non-recurring items in Q2 2025 decreased by 4.18 percentage points to 23.71%, primarily due to a decline in gross margin and an increase in expense ratios [3]. - The gross margin fell by 0.79 percentage points to 71.00%, influenced by reduced economies of scale and changes in product mix [3]. Future Outlook - The company is focusing on inventory reduction in the RTD liquor segment and expects new product launches to improve sales performance [4]. - The whisky segment is anticipated to have significant growth potential, with ongoing marketing investments needed to reach a sales turning point [4]. - Profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been updated to 786 million yuan, 902 million yuan, and 1.048 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 37, 33, and 28 times [4].