□张膺浩 《沈阳市促进数字经济产业高质量发展政策》（以下简称《政策》）近日出台，将于2月7日起施行，以 算力券、数据券、标注券为核心的六条举措，跳出了"长篇大论"的窠臼，用直达痛点的"干货"为区域数 字经济高质量发展注入强劲动能。在各地数字经济政策存在同质化、倡导性条款偏多的背景下，这份精 炼的新政彰显了老工业基地以精准治理激发创新活力的破局智慧。 新政的亮眼之处，在于构建了覆盖数字经济全链条的支撑体系。算力券破解"用不起"的成本困境，数据 券则直击"不愿放"的数据流通难题，以实际交易额10%的奖励撬动市场主体开放数据的积极性，让"沉 睡的数据"转化为生产要素。而标注券对优秀企业及技术突破平台的分级奖励，更补齐了AI产业发展的 基础短板——高质量数据标注是大模型训练的"粮食"，政策倾斜能加速培育专业标注生态，为数字产业 向上突破筑牢根基。三类券种各司其职又相互衔接，形成"算力支撑—数据流通—基础夯实"的闭环赋能 格局。 （来源：沈阳日报） 政策的务实性，更体现在与区域产业生态的深度契合。去年10月启用的沈阳人工智能中心拥有1012P算 力规模，相当于约50万台高性能计算机的总和，位居辽宁首位，为AI产业发展夯 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming 20th Private Equity Fund Development Forum, focusing on the theme of "Walking Towards the Light, Stars and Rivers for Miles," which aims to explore new paths for high-quality development in China's private equity fund industry through discussions on AI empowerment, investment opportunities in equity markets, and the value of CTA strategy allocation [2]. Group 1: Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - From a cyclical perspective, the market is expected to be in an upward phase from early 2024 to 2025, with overall valuations still in a bull market mid-stage, indicating no extreme bubbles yet [4]. - AI is identified as a key investment theme for 2026, with a potential shift in focus from hardware to software as commercialization progresses, correcting the current imbalance in AI hardware investment [5]. - The market confidence has been restored due to supportive policies, declining risk-free rates, and improved profit expectations, leading to a cautious optimism for 2026 [5][6]. Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights - The AI industry is seen as having significant growth potential, comparable to the early stages of the internet and new energy revolutions, with a low penetration rate and vast development space [6]. - The investment focus should be on AI applications and innovative pharmaceuticals, with expectations that China could capture 20%-30% of the global innovative drug market share in the next decade [9]. - The consumer sector is expected to require a clear economic recovery and income growth for substantial gains, while the pharmaceutical sector remains promising due to aging trends [11]. Group 3: Macro-Economic Factors - The current market is characterized by a new Kondratiev wave driven by AI, alongside a transition in the global monetary system, with liquidity easing being a primary driver of market growth since September 2024 [14]. - Investment in large projects is highlighted as a significant variable for 2026, particularly in cyclical industries, while the RMB exchange rate is expected to remain stable until October 2026 [15].

格隆汇12月22日｜Wedbush指出，2026年很可能成为AI产业从前期布局迈向关键建设阶段的转折点，并 列出科技产业的十大投资预测： 1. 随着AI浪潮进入更深层阶段，第二、第三乃至第四波衍生应用正逐步在软件、芯片与基础设施等领 域落地，这将成为新一轮增长动能，带动科技股在2026年整体涨幅有望超过20%。 7. 特朗普政府已开始对量子相关企业进行股权投资，其中IonQ与Rigetti Computing被视为最具代表性的 受惠标的。 8. 随着愈来愈多企业透过Azure和Redmond加速导入AI应用，微软将在2026年进入关键收获期。 9. 英伟达依旧稳坐全球AI芯片产业龙头地位。在乐观情境下，英伟达2026年股价上看275美元。 10. Wedbush看好Palantir的长期潜力，未来两至三年内估值上看1万亿美元。 4. 在AI基础建设领域中，Nebius是最具吸引力的并购标的之一，潜在买家包括微软、Alphabet以及亚马 逊。 5. 网络安全被视为目前科技产业中表现最突出的次产业之一。Wedbush点名Crowdstrike与Palo Alto Networks为其最看好的网络安全企业。 6. ...

Core Insights - The A-share market has shown positive performance in 2025, with new productivity sectors leading the gains, driven by macroeconomic conditions, industry trends, and capital preferences [1] - The investment strategy emphasizes selecting quality assets for medium to long-term gains, focusing on fundamental performance, valuation, governance structure, business models, and competitive landscape [1] - For 2026, the market is expected to transition from extreme conditions to a more balanced state, with technology and innovative pharmaceuticals remaining key investment themes despite potential volatility [1][2] Investment Focus - The focus for 2026 will be on technology, resource products, export chains, and certain cyclical sectors, particularly in the TMT field, which includes AI-related areas such as overseas computing power and domestic controllable technology [1] - Resource products are anticipated to experience price stability due to global liquidity easing and domestic "anti-involution" policies, with current stock valuations being relatively low [1] Risks and Uncertainties - Key risks for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks in 2026 include the pace of valuation recovery and confirmation of profit turning points, alongside geopolitical uncertainties and the effectiveness of domestic policies [2] - Despite these risks, the focus remains on identifying cost-effective and relatively certain assets for investment [2]

Core Viewpoint - The long-term outlook for copper demand is optimistic, driven by sectors such as electric vehicles, AI, and power grids, with expectations of a balanced supply-demand situation from 2025 to 2027, leading to an upward trend in copper prices [2][4][67]. Group 1: Copper Demand Drivers - Electric vehicles (EVs) are expected to significantly increase copper consumption, with a projected CAGR of 14% from 2025 to 2030, resulting in an annual increase of 21 million tons [11][13][67]. - The AI sector is driving demand for data centers, with an anticipated additional copper requirement of 206 million tons from 2025 to 2030, averaging 34 million tons annually [16][67]. - The power infrastructure cycle, including the upgrade of aging power grid systems and AI-driven resource construction, is expected to stabilize copper demand over the long term [20][68]. Group 2: Regional Insights - In China, stable domestic demand and the development of new productive forces are expected to boost copper demand, particularly through new infrastructure projects [20][69]. - In the United States, the need for power grid updates and expansions is anticipated to support a rebound in copper demand, driven by manufacturing return and energy transition [27][30][69]. - The European Union's focus on renewable energy sources and post-war reconstruction efforts is projected to enhance copper demand [42][69]. - Other regions, such as India and Southeast Asia, are expected to see increased copper demand due to infrastructure investments and manufacturing shifts [45][50][70]. Group 3: Short-term Factors and Market Dynamics - Recent tariff impacts are expected to ease after May 2025, contributing to a more stable outlook for copper demand [4][71]. - The copper market is characterized by regional supply and demand dynamics, with geopolitical factors affecting the flow of copper and creating potential supply risks [62][71]. - The transition from aluminum to copper in certain applications is limited by technical and market challenges, which may not significantly impact overall copper demand in the short term [64][71].

Market Performance - The market showed a trend of increasing volume today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.54%, the CSI 300 by 0.81%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.6%, indicating strong performance in growth and financial sectors while consumer and stable sectors lagged [1] Economic Policy - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasized the importance of accelerating the construction of a new development pattern and promoting high-quality development, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply [3] AI Industry Development - The AI industry is experiencing continuous catalysis, with significant increases in upstream computing power, driven by expectations surrounding the release of OpenAI's GPT-5.2 and the global upgrade of optical modules to 800G/1.6T, highlighting supply shortages in key materials [4] Global Economic Factors - Expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have increased, contributing to a recovery in overseas markets, which positively impacts the A-share market [5] Independent Logic of Chinese Assets - The recent rise in Chinese assets is supported by independent factors such as enhanced national competitiveness, the release of new economic momentum, clear policy transformation, and stable economic fundamentals, which are expected to remain unaffected by external disturbances [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report During the 15th Five - Year Plan period, the development of non - ferrous related industries will prioritize high - quality development, resolve supply - side involution, reduce ineffective supply, and control smelting - end production capacity. Copper, aluminum and other non - ferrous metals and new energy materials will continue to benefit from the optimization and upgrading of traditional industries and the booming development of emerging and future industries. The industrial pattern of non - ferrous and new energy varieties will be further improved and optimized, and price trends will be more boosted by the supply and demand sides [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 "Importance of the 15th Five - Year Plan Period" The 15th Five - Year Plan period is crucial for basically realizing socialist modernization, serving as a connecting link between the past and the future. It is necessary to consolidate advantages, break through bottlenecks, and strengthen weak points. Adhering to high - quality development is particularly important for the non - ferrous metal industry pattern [6]. 3.2 "Main Goals and Industrial System Planning of the 15th Five - Year Plan" - **Main Goals**: The main goals include significant achievements in high - quality development, a substantial increase in the level of scientific and technological self - reliance, new breakthroughs in further comprehensive deep - seated reforms, a notable improvement in social civilization, continuous improvement in people's living standards, new major progress in building a beautiful China, and a more solid national security barrier. High - quality development is prioritized, and the non - ferrous metal industry will focus on high - quality development, addressing supply - side issues and strengthening effective demand. The goal of a substantial increase in scientific and technological self - reliance highlights the importance of science and technology, which will drive the high - quality development of the non - ferrous new energy industry [8][11][12]. - **Industrial System Planning Clues for Non - Ferrous Metals**: In the industrial system planning, traditional industries such as mining and metallurgy related to non - ferrous metals will continue supply - side reforms. Emerging and future industries, such as new energy and quantum technology, will drive the demand for non - ferrous and new energy materials. Non - ferrous metals and new energy materials will benefit from the development of both traditional and emerging/future industries [14][15][16]. 3.3 "Prospects for Non - Ferrous Metal Terminal Industries in the 15th Five - Year Plan" - **Wind Power, Photovoltaic and Grid Energy Storage**: The 15th Five - Year Plan aims to accelerate the construction of a new energy system. The scale of new energy installations is expected to reach a new high, and the demand for energy storage and grid investment will increase to support the consumption and stable operation of new energy [17][20]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: The 15th Five - Year Plan emphasizes green development. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China is expected to further increase. Although the growth rate may decline, new energy vehicles will remain an important driver of the domestic economy [21][23]. - **AI Industry**: The 15th Five - Year Plan has higher requirements for scientific and technological self - reliance. The development of the AI industry will drive the growth of semiconductor chips and increase the demand for energy storage in AI data centers, becoming a new growth engine for non - ferrous and new energy materials [24].

Economic Overview - The US economy is experiencing a slow downward trend, with overall inflation remaining stable and limited transmission effects from tariffs on inflation [1] - Recent data from Harvard's Pricing Lab indicates that the price increase of Chinese goods imported to the US has been limited, even after tariff hikes [1] - The US has recently reduced tariffs on Chinese imports by 10%, further diminishing the impact of tariffs on inflation [1] - There is a potential concern regarding rising electricity prices due to significant investments in the AI industry, which may affect the US CPI [1] Labor Market Insights - The US is currently in a government shutdown, leading to a lack of official economic data, with reliance on private statistics like the ADP report [2] - The latest ADP data shows a rebound in job creation to over 40,000 in October, but this is still below the previous average of over 100,000, indicating a weak labor market [2] - The stable inflation and weakening labor market create conditions for potential monetary policy easing, with expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [2] China-US Trade Relations - Despite the recent reduction of tariffs on Chinese goods, China still faces significant tariff pressures, with its goods having the highest tariff rates among countries exporting to the US as of July [3] Domestic Economic Conditions - China's economy is showing a diverging trend compared to the US, with stable high growth in exports, social financing, and industrial value added, while retail sales and fixed asset investment face uncertainties [5] - The GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter is expected to decline further, potentially falling between 4.4% and 4.6% [5] - The impact of previous economic stimulus measures is leading to a decline in consumer purchasing power, with some sectors experiencing negative sales growth [5] Inflation and Price Trends - The fourth quarter is expected to see a "bottoming out and recovery" in inflation, influenced by base effects, with gold's rising weight in the CPI contributing to this trend [6] - Gold's weight in the CPI has increased to 4%, indicating its significant impact on overall inflation metrics [6] - Core CPI is projected to remain stable between 0.5% and 1.6% [6] Social Financing Trends - Social financing growth is expected to gradually decline towards the end of the year due to a lack of large-scale debt issuance compared to the previous year [7] - The recent discussions from the Fourth Plenary Session indicate a cautious approach to economic policy, with no expectation of large-scale stimulus measures [7] Fiscal and Monetary Policy Developments - There has been a noticeable decrease in fiscal bond issuance in October, with expectations for a potential rebound in November or December [8] - The government has implemented incremental policies to address the economic downturn, including the issuance of local government bonds [8] - Policy-oriented financial tools have been fully utilized to counter economic pressures, with a focus on supporting key sectors [9] Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to experience a narrow fluctuation pattern, with potential for policy-driven movements in early next year [10] - The ten-year government bond is highlighted as a stable investment option, suitable for both long-term allocation and short-term trading strategies [10]

Group 1 - The U.S. economy is at a critical juncture, transitioning from a "soft landing" to potential expansion, influenced by upcoming midterm elections and AI industry growth [4][6][34] - The Federal Reserve has shifted its focus from controlling inflation to preserving employment, with expectations of multiple interest rate cuts from December 2025 to December 2026 [6][8] - Fiscal policy is projected to boost GDP by 0.43% in Q4 2026, with potential for further increases if additional measures are implemented [10] Group 2 - AI investments are becoming a significant growth driver, contributing 1.4% to GDP in early 2025, surpassing private consumption [14][20] - Major tech companies are increasing capital expenditures on AI, supported by strong cash flows, indicating a more sustainable investment environment compared to the 1990s tech bubble [16][19] - The wealth effect from rising stock prices, driven by AI-related investments, is providing new support for consumer spending, despite concerns over income inequality [22][24] Group 3 - Inflation risks are a major concern, with predictions of a potential CPI increase to 3.4% by May 2026, influenced by loose fiscal and monetary policies [25][28] - The uncertainty surrounding AI growth and potential declines in tech companies' cash flows could negatively impact both the stock market and the economy [30] - The bond market is expected to experience fluctuations, with 10-year Treasury yields projected to range between 3.2%-4.5%, affecting corporate investment and the real estate market [31][32]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Chinese assets are expected to recover due to their adjusted cost-effectiveness amidst global market fluctuations and the release of overseas risks [1][5][8] - The recent dovish comments from the Federal Reserve Chairman have led to a significant increase in the market's expectations for a rate cut in December, rising from 30% to 71%, which is easing the pressure on global risk appetite [2][5] - The concerns regarding the "AI bubble" are likely to ease as liquidity expectations improve and major tech companies continue to invest in AI applications, which are translating into actual productivity [5][8] Group 2 - The current market conditions indicate that the Hong Kong stock market, which has experienced earlier and deeper declines, presents a favorable entry point due to its high short-selling ratio and the valuation of the Hang Seng Tech Index returning to levels seen during "equal tariffs" [1][6][8] - Historical data shows that when the entire A-share market falls below the 60-day moving average, the subsequent recovery is often limited, suggesting that the market is likely to rebound after a short-term digestion period [5][6] - The independent logic supporting the recovery of Chinese assets includes enhanced national competitiveness, the release of new economic drivers, clear policy direction, and stable economic fundamentals, which are not affected by external disturbances [8][9] Group 3 - The focus for the year-end market layout should be on sectors with high growth expectations for the next year, particularly those that have adjusted to cost-effectiveness due to overseas shocks [9][10] - Key sectors identified for potential growth include AI industry trends, advantageous manufacturing, "anti-involution" sectors, and structural recovery in domestic demand [9][10][11] - For technology growth sectors, opportunities are seen in narrative shifts and internal "high-cut-low" strategies, particularly in AI applications, innovative pharmaceuticals, and military industries [14][18]