Group 1: Market Overview - The commodity market shows signs of cooling after a period of rapid growth, with significant fluctuations in stock indices and bond market stabilization [1][2] - Domestic commodity markets have experienced a decline in consistent bullish sentiment, leading to increased divergence among sectors and products [2][3] - The current market is characterized by a shift from excessive trading expectations to a more rational approach, indicating potential profit-taking and risk management [2][3] Group 2: Commodity Price Dynamics - Futures prices for certain commodities have significantly outpaced spot prices, indicating strong bullish expectations but also accumulating risks of price corrections [3] - The price differentials between near and far-month contracts suggest a softening of optimistic sentiment regarding future price increases [3][4] - Regulatory bodies have issued risk warnings for popular commodities to guide market participants towards more rational trading behaviors [4] Group 3: Stock Market Trends - The stock market is experiencing a rotation of funds from high-performing sectors to lower-performing ones, with technology and consumer sectors gaining attention [10][11] - The infrastructure sector is facing increased pressure, with a notable decline in related indices as market sentiment shifts [9][11] - The performance of the Hong Kong stock market has been strong, driven by large internet companies and positive fund flows [10] Group 4: Bond Market Insights - The bond market is entering a potential recovery phase, with investors considering long-duration assets amid recent adjustments [8] - The yield on government bonds has seen slight increases, reflecting changes in market risk preferences [6][8] - The overall bond market sentiment remains cautious, with investors closely monitoring commodity price movements and their implications for interest rates [7][8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal futures market is expected to maintain a strong trend in the medium - term and show a slightly strong intraday performance. The main reasons are the increasing expectation of a good harvest of US soybeans under normal weather conditions in US soybean - producing areas, the slow forward buying of ships in China leading to an expected tightening of forward supply, and the continuous fermentation of market optimism [5]. - The palm oil futures market is expected to be slightly strong in the short - term and show a volatile trend in the medium - term. The palm oil leads the rise in the oil and fat sector. Driven by the expected good demand for biodiesel in Indonesia, the energy demand support for palm oil futures prices is strong, which restricts its downward space. In the short - term, it is affected by international oil price fluctuations and runs with a slightly strong trend [7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **View**: Intraday view is slightly strong, medium - term view is strong, and the reference view is slightly strong [5]. - **Core Logic**: With normal weather in US soybean - producing areas, the expectation of a good harvest of US soybeans is growing. The slow forward buying of ships in China leads to an expected tightening of forward supply, which boosts soybean futures prices. The market's optimistic sentiment is continuously fermenting, consolidating the recent strong pattern of soybean futures prices. The soybean meal futures are stronger than the spot, and the domestic market is stronger than the foreign market, and the rebound continues [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **View**: Short - term view is slightly strong, medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is slightly strong [7]. - **Core Logic**: Palm oil leads the rise in the oil and fat sector. The rebound of the oil and fat sector reflects the energy attribute of oils and fats. Supported by the expected good demand for biodiesel in Indonesia, the energy demand support for palm oil futures prices is still strong, restricting its downward space. In the short - term, it is affected by international oil price fluctuations and runs with a slightly strong trend [7].

Report Overview - The report focuses on the investment analysis of the rubber and synthetic rubber futures in the energy and chemical sector of commodity futures [1][5][7]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) futures are expected to operate in a relatively strong manner, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being oscillatory and relatively strong [1][5][7]. Summary by Variety Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Performance**: On the night session of Monday this week, the 2509 contract of Shanghai rubber futures slightly rose 0.81% to 15,020 yuan/ton [5]. - **Core Logic**: After the previous negative expectations were gradually digested, the price of Shanghai rubber futures entered an oscillatory recovery trend. The expected reduction in domestic natural rubber production areas due to the sixth typhoon this year has boosted the price, and it is expected to maintain an oscillatory and relatively strong trend on Tuesday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Performance**: On the night session of Monday this week, the 2509 contract of synthetic rubber futures slightly rose 1.01% to 12,015 yuan/ton [7]. - **Core Logic**: After the rubber price callback digested negative factors and the recent stabilization and rebound of domestic and international crude oil futures prices, the Shanghai rubber futures continued the upward trend. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and relatively strong trend on Tuesday [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Report's Core View - For soybean meal, the short - term, medium - term, and reference views are all positive. In the short - term, it's expected to be strong, in the medium - term, it's also strong, and the reference view is oscillating strongly. The core logic is that due to trade concerns, the forward purchase rhythm is slow, the supply pressure is not transmitted to the far - month, and the forward supply is tight. With high refinery operating rates, the refinery's soybean meal inventory has increased for 10 consecutive weeks, and the negative basis persists. Short - term soybean meal futures prices are dominated by supply expectations, with futures stronger than spot and stronger than US soybeans, and the rebound continues [5]. - For palm oil, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating weakly. The core logic is that the implementation of Indonesia's biodiesel policy boosts future biodiesel demand, which supports palm oil futures prices. Domestic palm oil follows the international market. With the return of funds due to energy demand, the price gets support. However, as international oil prices fall again, the palm oil price oscillates weakly in the short - term [8]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: strong; Medium - term: strong; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [5][7]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by trade concerns, the forward purchase rhythm is slow, so the supply pressure is not transmitted to the far - month, and the forward supply is tight. With high refinery operating rates, the refinery's soybean meal inventory has increased for 10 consecutive weeks, and the negative basis persists. Short - term soybean meal futures prices are dominated by supply expectations, with futures stronger than spot and stronger than US soybeans, and the rebound continues [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [7][8]. - **Core Logic**: The implementation of Indonesia's biodiesel policy boosts future biodiesel demand, which supports palm oil futures prices. Domestic palm oil follows the international market. With the return of funds due to energy demand, the price gets support. However, as international oil prices fall again, the palm oil price oscillates weakly in the short - term [8]. Other Considerations - For soybean meal 2509, factors include import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, refinery operating rhythm, and stocking demand [7]. - For soybean oil 2509, factors include US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and refinery inventory [7]. - For palm 2509, factors include biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals, inventory, and substitution demand [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The overall view of the report is that several key agricultural commodities in the futures market, including soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil, are showing a tendency of being "oscillating strongly" in the short - term or intraday, with different fundamental driving factors for each [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Short - term, Mid - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and mid - term views are "strong", and the intraday view is "oscillating strongly". The reference view is also "oscillating strongly" [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: Positive expectations for US soybean exports boost the rebound of US soybean futures prices, and strong US soybean crushing demand is an important support. The "ambiguous deadline" of the China - US trade agreement extends the South American supply window, and the traditional US soybean export peak season faces pressure from Brazilian soybean discounts. Domestic supply pressure is concentrated in the near - term, and forward purchases are low. In the short - term, supply expectations dominate the market again, with futures stronger than spot, and the internal - strong - external - weak pattern continues, keeping the futures price in an oscillating and strong pattern [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Short - term, Mid - term, and Intraday Views**: The intraday view is "oscillating strongly", the mid - term view is "oscillating", and the reference view is "oscillating strongly" [7]. - **Core Logic**: The increase in Malaysian palm oil production and the increase in export taxes may lead to a decline in palm oil exports, weakening the fundamental support of Malaysian palm oil. However, positive expectations for Indonesian biodiesel demand support palm oil prices. Driven by the energy attribute of palm oil, a small amount of capital flowing back boosts the futures price performance, making palm oil lead the rebound in the oil and fat sector again. In the short - term, the palm oil futures price should be treated with a rebound mindset [7]. Soybean Oil (Y) - **Short - term, Mid - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and mid - term views are "oscillating", the intraday view is "oscillating strongly", and the reference view is "oscillating strongly" [6]. - **Core Logic**: Influenced by US biofuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly in the short - term, with an intraday view of being strongly volatile and a medium - term view of being volatile [1][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: strongly volatile; Overall reference view: strongly running [1][5] - **Core Logic**: A new round of supply - side reform may boost domestic commodity futures. The supply side is in the peak tapping season with strong incremental expectations and large month - on - month output pressure. Downstream demand is weak, with slowing tire production and sales growth and a terminal demand off - season. Benefiting from better - than - expected domestic new car production and sales data in June, the 2509 contract of Shanghai rubber futures showed a strongly volatile trend in the overnight session on Monday, with the price slightly rising 0.87% to 14,430 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a volatile and stable trend on Tuesday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: strongly volatile; Overall reference view: strongly running [1][7] - **Core Logic**: A new round of supply - side reform may boost domestic commodity futures. The operating loads of some private butadiene rubber plants in East and South China have increased slightly, driving up production and capacity utilization. Downstream demand is weak, with slowing tire production and sales growth and a terminal demand off - season. Benefiting from better - than - expected domestic new car production and sales data in June, the 2509 contract of synthetic rubber futures showed a strongly volatile trend in the overnight session on Monday, with the price slightly rising 0.22% to 11,570 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a strongly volatile trend on Tuesday [7]

Core Viewpoint - The company has established a comprehensive set of guidelines for its hedging activities to mitigate market price volatility risks, ensuring that these activities align with its operational needs and comply with relevant regulations [1][2]. Group 1: Hedging Business Overview - The hedging business includes financial derivatives and commodity futures hedging to mitigate risks associated with exchange rates, interest rates, and commodity prices [1][2]. - The company must conduct hedging activities in a legal, prudent, safe, and effective manner, ensuring that these activities do not interfere with normal operations or involve speculative trading [2]. Group 2: Organizational Structure - The company's board of directors and shareholders' meeting serve as the decision-making bodies for hedging activities [3]. - A dedicated working group is established to manage hedging activities, comprising key executives such as the chairman, general manager, and financial officers [3][4]. Group 3: Approval Authority - The company must prepare a feasibility analysis report for hedging activities, which requires approval from the board of directors [5]. - Certain transactions, particularly those involving significant financial commitments, must also be submitted for shareholders' approval [5]. Group 4: Risk Management - The company is required to conduct thorough assessments of financial institutions before engaging in hedging activities [27]. - Regular audits and checks are mandated to ensure compliance with risk management policies and to identify any operational risks [28][30]. Group 5: Emergency Procedures - In the event of significant market changes or natural disasters, the company must promptly report and take necessary actions to mitigate risks, including closing or locking positions [37][39]. - Contingency plans are in place for operational disruptions, ensuring that trading can continue through alternative means [40][41]. Group 6: Documentation and Record Keeping - All documentation related to hedging activities, including applications, approvals, and transaction records, must be archived for a minimum of ten years [41]. - The company is responsible for maintaining confidentiality regarding its hedging strategies and financial information [25].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly, with an intraday view of being strongly volatile and a medium - term view of being volatile [1][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Market Conditions**: On Wednesday night, the 2509 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures showed a volatile rebound, with the futures price rising 2.28% to 14325 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a strongly volatile trend on Thursday [5] - **Core Logic**: Recent high - level meetings may bring a new round of supply - side reform, boosting domestic commodity futures. However, the supply side is in the peak tapping season with strong incremental expectations, and downstream demand is weak, with slowing tire production and sales growth and a coming off - season for terminal demand [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Market Conditions**: On Wednesday night, the 2509 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures showed a volatile rebound, with the futures price rising 1.78% to 11445 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a strongly volatile trend on Thursday [7] - **Core Logic**: High - level meetings may bring a new round of supply - side reform, boosting domestic commodity futures. The load of some private butadiene rubber plants in East and South China has increased slightly, driving up production and capacity utilization. But downstream demand is weak, with slowing tire production and sales growth and a coming off - season for terminal demand [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry - wide investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term and medium - term trends of various agricultural commodity futures are mainly in a state of oscillation, with different degrees of strength or weakness in the short - term [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Soybean Meal (M) - **Viewpoints**: The intraday view is oscillating weakly, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating weakly [5]. - **Core Logic**: Good weather in US soybean - producing areas, rising trade concerns, a well - supplied domestic soybean market, 8 - week consecutive low - level increase in oil mill soybean meal inventory, high - level continuous soybean meal pick - up volume, and an un - reversed negative basis of soybean meal. The short - term soybean meal futures price is affected by import cost, supply pressure, and trade concerns and turns to oscillating [5]. 3.2. Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoints**: The intraday view is oscillating strongly, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating strongly [7]. - **Core Logic**: The recent oil market is affected by the volatility of international oil prices, and market funds' attention to palm oil has increased. The palm oil market focuses on whether the Malaysian palm oil inventory can decline as expected. The phased supply - demand of Malaysian palm oil has tightened, Indian demand for importing palm oil has increased, and with the attention of funds, palm oil performs relatively strongly in the oil sector [7]. 3.3. Other Related Information - **Time Cycle Definition**: Short - term is within one week, and medium - term is from two weeks to one month (based on the previous day's night - session closing price) [6]. - **Factors Affecting Different Varieties**: For soybean meal 2509, factors include import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil mill operation rhythm, and stocking demand; for soybean oil 2509, factors include US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory; for palm 2509, factors include biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [6].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Report's Core View - The short - term trend of soybean meal futures prices has turned to a volatile state under the influence of weakened support from US soybeans and domestic supply pressure [6]. - The short - term trend of palm oil futures prices is volatile and strong, and the sustainability needs to be monitored [9]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs For Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Trends**: Intraday view is volatile and weak, medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is volatile and weak [6]. - **Core Logic**: Good weather in US soybean production areas has strengthened the expectation of a bumper harvest, causing US soybean futures prices to run weakly. The domestic soybean market has abundant supply. Under the background of high operating rates of oil mills, the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills has rebounded for 8 consecutive weeks at a low level, and the提货 volume remains high [6]. For Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trends**: Intraday view is volatile and strong, medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is volatile and strong [9]. - **Core Logic**: The palm oil market is concerned about whether this week's Malaysian palm report can fulfill the bullish expectation of inventory decline. The short - term supply and demand of Malaysian palm is tightening, and the international soybean - palm spread has turned in favor of palm oil exports. Driven by multiple positive expectations, market funds have actively entered the market, pushing palm oil futures prices to lead the rise in the oil and fat sector [9]. For Other Related Information - **Time Cycle Definition**: Short - term refers to within one week, and medium - term refers to two weeks to one month (based on the previous day's night - session closing price) [8]. - **Variety Strategy Factors**: For soybean meal 2509, factors include import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil mill operating rhythm, and stocking demand; for soybean oil 2509, factors include US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory; for palm 2509, factors include biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [8].