Group 1: USD Outlook - The USD's performance is influenced by the Federal Reserve's data-dependent stance and recent strong economic data, alongside looming trade tariff risks [1][2] - The upcoming employment and inflation data are crucial for the USD, especially after recent JOLTS and ISM manufacturing index data indicated labor market resilience and potential inflation pressure [2][4] - The Senate's approval of a debt bill is expected to increase significant debt, but the bond market's muted reaction suggests that expectations for early Fed easing are cushioning its impact [2] Group 2: Euro Outlook - The European Central Bank (ECB) officials are maintaining a wait-and-see approach, aligning with their hawkish shift in June, as they await further data [7] - The euro's strength has become a focal point, with comments from ECB Vice President Guindos indicating a tolerance limit for the euro/USD at 1.20, but the euro's movement is primarily driven by the USD [8] - If US non-farm data significantly underperforms expectations, the euro/USD may quickly test the 1.20 level [8] Group 3: GBP Outlook - Political uncertainty in the UK is highlighted by the government's cancellation of welfare cuts, which may increase the likelihood of tax hikes in the fall, posing potential challenges to the economic outlook [9] - The UK bond market has reacted calmly, partly due to the Bank of England's Governor Bailey hinting at a potential slowdown in quantitative tightening, providing some support for the GBP [9] - The lack of significant UK data releases in the short term means that market focus will be on upcoming data performance to assess whether the euro/GBP can sustain a breakthrough above the 0.8600 level [10]

Market Overview - The financial markets experienced significant volatility in the first half of the year due to rapidly changing trade dynamics under President Trump, concerns over a potential economic recession, and worries about the expanding deficit threatening the U.S. safe-haven status [1] Currency Market - The U.S. dollar recorded its longest monthly decline since 2017 in June, with a year-to-date drop of approximately 10.8%, marking the worst first half since 1973 [3] - The euro appreciated by about 3.8% in June, with a cumulative increase of 13.8% in the first half, driven by concerns over tariffs impacting the economy and a weaker dollar [6] - The British pound saw a nearly 10% increase against the dollar in the first half, supported by a pause in interest rate cuts by the Bank of England and improving economic outlook [6] Gold Market - Gold prices rose by 25.8% in the first half of the year, with gold ETFs increasing by 25.9%, driven by geopolitical tensions and trade disputes boosting safe-haven demand [7] - Silver prices also surged, with a 24.9% increase in the first half, supported by both safe-haven and industrial demand [7] Oil Market - Crude oil prices experienced significant fluctuations, with an overall decline of about 9.6% in the first half, impacted by trade tensions and oversupply concerns from OPEC+ [9] - In June, oil prices briefly spiked to $80 due to tensions in the Middle East but quickly retreated as the situation stabilized [9] Equity Market - By the end of June, U.S. stock markets reached historical highs, driven by expectations of a trade agreement and renewed interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [11] - The S&P 500 index surpassed the 6200-point mark, reflecting a 25% increase from its April low, primarily fueled by strong performance in technology stocks [11] Market Resilience - Despite geopolitical shocks and trade uncertainties, the market demonstrated remarkable adaptability and resilience, attributed to stable economic and profit conditions [13] - Investors are advised to maintain diversified portfolios to navigate the high uncertainty period ahead of the upcoming earnings season [13]

Group 1 - The global financial market is currently focused on the expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, particularly the anticipated interest rate cuts [1][2] - The futures market has fully priced in a rate cut in September and a significant probability for a cut in July, indicating strong belief that the Fed will soon shift to a more accommodative stance [1][2] - The aggressive rate cut expectations have led to a weakening of the US dollar, as its value is closely tied to US interest rates and economic outlook [1][3] Group 2 - The disconnect between market pricing and the Fed's official stance is a major source of uncertainty, with upcoming US economic data being crucial for market direction [2][7] - The market anticipates a Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) figure of 113k, with a potential for weaker-than-expected data, which could reinforce the view that the Fed needs to cut rates soon [3][7] - The euro/dollar exchange rate reflects the current market dynamics, with its rise being a direct result of the dollar's weakness rather than a strong recovery in the Eurozone [3][4] Group 3 - In contrast to the forex market's "rate cut frenzy," the oil market is experiencing significant declines due to increased supply and weak demand [5][6] - Oil prices are under pressure from rumors of OPEC+ potentially increasing production again, raising concerns about oversupply in a slow-demand environment [6][7] - The market's aggressive pricing of Fed rate cuts is challenging the dollar's position and influencing capital flows, while the oil market struggles with macroeconomic uncertainties [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility of the New Taiwan Dollar (NTD) poses challenges to regulatory tolerance, with significant fluctuations impacting local businesses and the financial market [1][4][5]. Group 1: NTD Volatility - The NTD experienced a significant increase of 2.5% against the USD, marking the largest single-day gain since early May, bringing its year-to-date appreciation to 12%, the strongest among Asian currencies [1][4]. - The previous trading day saw the NTD plummet by 2.5%, the largest single-day drop since 2001, indicating a pattern of extreme volatility [4][5]. - Analysts suggest that the fluctuations reflect a delicate balance for regulators between maintaining exchange rate stability and responding to the weakening USD [4][5]. Group 2: Impact on Local Businesses - The recent volatility coincides with local companies preparing to release their semi-annual reports, which could directly affect the financial performance of firms, including life insurance companies and exporters [4][5]. - The surge in the NTD was driven by significant dollar sales from local exporters and foreign capital inflows, prompting public banks to intervene by purchasing USD to stabilize liquidity [5][6]. Group 3: Regulatory Response - Regulatory authorities are increasingly concerned about the NTD's appreciation, which poses risks to Taiwan's export-dependent economy and pressures life insurance companies holding USD-denominated assets [6][7]. - The Financial Supervisory Commission (FSC) has implemented measures allowing life insurance companies to increase foreign exchange reserves to offset potential losses from NTD appreciation [7][8]. - The central bank has also intensified warnings regarding currency purchases by local trading companies and has taken steps to limit foreign capital speculation on the NTD, demonstrating a commitment to stabilizing the exchange rate [8].

近期全球外汇市场呈现显著变化，美元指数持续走弱至多年低位。日本央行货币政策立场的微妙转变，叠加美日贸易关系的复杂演进，正在重塑两国货币的 相对价值。市场参与者密切关注这一趋势的发展轨迹，美元兑日元汇率面临多重压力因素的交织影响。 日本央行政策预期推动日元走强 美日贸易关系的复杂性为汇率走势增添了变数。贸易政策的不确定性对两国经济前景产生了不同程度的影响。日本作为出口导向型经济体，对贸易环境变化 较为敏感，这种敏感性在汇率市场得到了充分体现。 美国关税政策的潜在调整成为影响汇率预期的关键因素。市场担忧新的贸易壁垒可能对日本出口企业造成冲击，进而影响日本经济增长前景。这种担忧在一 定程度上限制了日元的上涨空间，但同时也为美元带来了下行压力。 贸易谈判的进展情况直接影响着市场情绪。谈判过程中的任何积极或消极信号都会在外汇市场引发即时反应。投资者对谈判结果的不同预期，导致美元兑日 元汇率出现较大幅度的波动。 来源：金融界 日本通胀数据持续超出央行目标水平，为货币政策调整提供了基础条件。东京地区消费者价格指数虽有所回落，但仍维持在3.1%的相对高位，明显高于日 本央行设定的2%通胀目标。核心通胀指标的韧性表现，增强了市 ...

新华财经北京6月30日电欧洲交易时段，美元兑欧元、英镑、瑞郎等主要货币徘徊在多年低点附近。市 场对美国贸易协议的乐观情绪不断升温，美联储降息预期高涨，美元正面临多重压力，美元指数一度刷 新2022年3月以来低点至96.98。 美国商务部发布的5月经济数据为美联储的政策制定者敲响了警钟。数据显示，个人消费支出和收入均 呈现下滑趋势，这或许预示着经济增长的疲软态势。更为令人担忧的是，核心个人消费支出（PCE）物 价指数同比上升2.7%，较4月增速加快，且超出市场预期。尽管整体通胀率相对温和，仅为2.3%，但仍 高于美联储2%的目标。此外，4月数据被上修，进一步凸显通胀压力并未如预期般缓解。这些数据使得 美联储对通胀形势的判断变得更加复杂，政策制定者在是否降息的问题上陷入了两难境地。 美国国会预算办公室（CBO）表示，参议院对美国总统的巨额税收法案所做的修改，将使美国的债务 负担增加数万亿美元，同时导致医疗保险覆盖面的损失更大，这给试图推动该法案获得通过的共和党人 增加了挑战。 7月3日仍吸引大量期权需求和溢价，尤其是美元看跌期权。这表明在非农就业报告（NFP）发布后，美 元可能面临更大的波动潜力和贬值风险。 关税 ...

Group 1: Currency Market Overview - The Euro/USD continues to rise, supported by a weaker dollar, trading around 1.1720 [1] - The GBP/USD maintains its upward trend for the fourth consecutive trading day, trading above 1.3700 [1] - The AUD/USD rebounds after a previous decline, trading around 0.6540 following the release of economic data from Australia [1] - The NZD/USD is up near 0.6050 [1] - The USD/CAD is down, trading around 1.3670 [1] Group 2: Key Economic and Political Developments - Trump believes there is no need to extend the July 9 tariff deadline, while the Treasury Secretary admits that completing all negotiations may be difficult [2] - The U.S. Senate is set to vote on the "Big and Beautiful" bill on June 30 [2] - Trump suggests that the U.S. should keep interest rates at 1% or 2% [2] - A poll shows Trump's approval rating has dropped to a new low [2] - Fed's Kashkari expects two rate cuts starting in September, with tariff impacts potentially delaying cuts [2] - The International Bank for Settlements states that Trump's criticism of the Fed's rate decisions does not threaten its independence [2] - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the Senate version of Trump's tax cut plan will increase U.S. debt by $3.3 trillion over the next decade [2] Group 3: Non-USD Currency Developments - Canada cancels the digital services tax to advance broader trade negotiations with the U.S. [3] - A poll in Japan shows support for the Shinto Abe cabinet has remained below 30% for four consecutive months [3] - A trade agreement reducing tariffs on U.S. auto and aircraft parts from the UK has come into effect [3] Group 4: Technical Analysis - For Euro/USD, if it breaks below 1.1700, the first support level will be the June 26 low of 1.1653, followed by 1.1600 and the 50-day SMA at 1.1515 [4] - The upward trend for GBP/USD remains intact, but momentum appears to be waning after reaching a multi-year high near 1.3770 [4] - For AUD/USD, a breakout above the descending channel's upper boundary may signal the start of a strong upward trend [4] Group 5: Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data to watch includes Germany's June CPI at 20:00, U.S. June Chicago PMI at 21:45, and a speech by Fed's Bostic at 22:00 [5] - The Dallas Fed's June business activity index will be released at 22:30, followed by speeches from Fed's Goolsbee and ECB's Lagarde [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of the Renminbi (RMB) exchange rate shows resilience and low volatility, with both onshore and offshore rates demonstrating a consistent upward trend against the US dollar [1][2]. Group 1: Onshore and Offshore RMB Performance - On June 30, the onshore RMB closed at 7.1656 against the US dollar, marking a rise of 34 basis points from the previous trading day and reaching the highest level since November 8, 2024 [1]. - In June, the onshore RMB appreciated by 0.41%, while in the second quarter, it cumulatively appreciated by 1.2%, and for the first half of the year, the overall appreciation was 1.86% [1]. - The offshore RMB also showed positive trends, with the exchange rate surpassing 7.16 on June 26, peaking at 7.1524, the highest since mid-November of the previous year [1]. Group 2: External Factors Influencing RMB - The US dollar index experienced a pullback during this period, with a decline of nearly 0.7% on June 26, providing a favorable external environment for the RMB [1]. - Year-to-date, the RMB's midpoint against the US dollar has appreciated by 0.37%, while the onshore spot rate has appreciated by nearly 1.8% [1]. Group 3: Market Stability and Expectations - The RMB exchange rate has exhibited characteristics of "low volatility and resilience," with the onshore and offshore rate differentials narrowing, indicating a stable "three-price unity" [2]. - The stability of the RMB reflects a growing consensus among market participants regarding exchange rate expectations, supported by the stability of China's economic fundamentals [2]. - The recent changes in the exchange rate market occurred amidst increased volatility in global financial markets, influenced by shifts in US Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations [2].

Market Overview - US stock index futures and European stocks rose due to progress in multiple trade negotiations, while Asian markets remained flat [1] - The Japanese stock market increased by 0.8% as Japan's chief negotiator extended their stay in the US to seek an agreement [4] - Canadian withdrawal of the digital services tax for tech companies aims to restart negotiations with the US, strengthening the Canadian dollar and boosting US tech stock futures [1] Asset Performance - Major US stock index futures rose, with Nasdaq 100 and Dow futures up approximately 0.5%, and S&P 500 futures also increasing by about 0.5% [2] - European stocks saw slight gains, with the pan-European index, UK stocks, and French stocks rising over 0.1%, while German stocks increased by over 0.2% [3] - The Nikkei 225 index closed up 0.8% following the extension of negotiations in the US [4] Currency and Commodity Movements - The US dollar index fell by approximately 0.2%, while the Japanese yen rose over 0.5% [5] - The South Korean won rose over 1% to its highest level since October last year, currently up about 0.7% [6] - Spot gold and silver increased by about 0.6% [9] - Crude oil prices declined, with US oil down about 0.4% and Brent oil down about 0.2% [10] Geopolitical and Trade Developments - Easing geopolitical risks and expectations of imminent trade agreements have added momentum to risk assets [12] - Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and President Trump agreed to restart negotiations aiming for an agreement by July 21 [13] - French Finance Minister Eric Lombard indicated that the EU is likely to reach some form of trade agreement with the US before the July 9 deadline to avoid significant tariffs on EU products [13] - India's trade team has also extended their stay in Washington to resolve differences before the July 9 deadline [13]

Group 1: Currency Performance - The US dollar has experienced a decline of over 2% this week, reaching a low of 96.99, marking its worst first half performance since 1986 with five consecutive months of decline [1] - The euro has appreciated against the dollar, rising 0.05% to 1.1705, with a weekly increase of 1.57%, the best since May 19 [8] - The Canadian dollar weakened by 0.5% to 1.37 CAD against the US dollar amid trade tensions [3] Group 2: Trade Relations - President Trump abruptly halted trade talks with Canada, accusing it of imposing new taxes on US tech companies, which he termed a "blatant attack" [3] - Canada plans to impose a digital services tax on US tech companies starting June 30, prompting Trump's strong opposition and a potential increase in tariffs on Canadian goods [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy - Market expectations for multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have increased, with traders anticipating a reduction of 65 basis points by the end of the year, up from 46 basis points a week prior [6] - Fed Chairman Powell's recent testimony has been interpreted as dovish, suggesting potential rate cuts if inflation does not rise as expected [5][6] Group 4: Geopolitical Risks - Trump's strong stance against Iran, including the possibility of military action if uranium enrichment reaches concerning levels, has heightened geopolitical risks [4] Group 5: Economic Indicators - Recent US economic data shows a surprising decline in consumer spending and an increase in unemployment claims, indicating a weakening economy [5]