证券研究报告 | 2026年01月20日 2026年01月21日 创新实业（02788.HK） 优于大市 蒙东低成本绿电铝，海外项目助力产能高增长 公司是一家氧化铝和电解铝生产企业，电解铝营收占比90%。公司成立于2012 年，十几年间在蒙东霍林河建成 6*330MW 燃煤自备电机组和 78.8 万吨电解 铝产能，在山东滨州建成 300 万吨氧化铝产能，于 2025 年 11 月在港交所上 市。 产能地理位置优越，盈利能力行业领先。公司氧化铝产能靠近滨州港和黄骅 港，进口铝土矿内陆运费低廉，相比河南和山西等内陆产能，运费带来的氧 化铝成本优势在 200 元/吨以上。公司电解铝产能位于蒙东霍林河地区，使 用蒙东低热值褐煤发电炼铝，褐煤热值低、销售半径小，绝对价格和波动幅 度小于市场煤，公司近期自发电成本仅 0.3 元/度含税。相比新疆电解铝产 能聚集区，公司更靠近氧化铝产区和电解铝消费地，氧化铝运费和铝产品外 运费都低于新疆电解铝。公司净利率一直处于行业领先地位。 蒙东 1750MW 绿电并网后，煤电成本优势转变为绿电成本优势，同时实现低 碳和降本两个目标。公司 1750MW 风电光伏项目预计 2026 年全部 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals Market Performance - Gold and silver prices reached historic highs on January 20, with gold surpassing $4700 per ounce and silver peaking at $95.457 per ounce, marking year-to-date increases of over 9% and 33% respectively [1][2] - Domestic futures markets also showed strong performance, with Shanghai gold futures rising by 1.99% to 1060.16 yuan per gram and Shanghai silver futures increasing by 3.62% to 23062 yuan per kilogram [1] Group 2: Industrial and Minor Metals Performance - Industrial metals and minor metals have also shown strength, with lithium carbonate futures up 33.04% year-to-date, and tin futures increasing by 23.56% [2] - The rise in metal prices is attributed to deteriorating external and trade environments, with increased demand for safe-haven assets and the impact of tariffs on global market sentiment [2] Group 3: Company Earnings and Performance - As of January 20, 16 non-ferrous metal companies reported earnings for 2025, with 12 expecting year-on-year profit growth, and notable increases in profits for companies in the rare earth sector [4] - North Rare Earth announced an expected net profit of 2.176 to 2.356 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 116.67% to 134.6% [4] Group 4: Institutional Interest and Company Strategies - 17 non-ferrous metal stocks have attracted institutional attention in 2026, with companies like Shengda Resources and Yunnan Zinc Industry receiving significant research interest [5] - Companies are focusing on resource acquisition and project development, with Shengda Resources planning capital expenditures on new projects and Yunnan Copper emphasizing resource integration [5] Group 5: Market Analysis and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the surge in gold prices signals a restructuring of the global monetary credit system, highlighting the enduring value of precious metals as hard currency [6] - The explosive growth in emerging industries such as electric vehicles and computing is expected to optimize the supply-demand dynamics for strategic metals like rare earths, lithium, and copper, indicating sustained high growth for related companies [6]

Core Viewpoint - The release of a significant policy in Shanghai has led to a strong rally in the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876), which saw a price increase of over 2.1% during the day and is approaching its previous listing high [1][11]. Fund Performance - As of the latest update, the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876) has received a net subscription of 21.6 million units, accumulating a total of 635 million yuan over the past 10 days [1][11]. - The latest scale of the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF reached 1.665 billion yuan, setting a new historical high, making it the largest ETF tracking the CSI Non-Ferrous Metals Index in the market [6][13]. Stock Performance - Key stocks in the sector, including Baiyin Nonferrous, Hunan Nonferrous, and Shengxin Lithium Energy, have hit the daily limit, with Baiyin Nonferrous rising by 10.01% and Hunan Nonferrous by 10% [3][14]. - Other notable performers include Guocheng Mining, which increased by over 8%, and Zhongkuang Resources, which rose by more than 7% [3][14]. Market Dynamics - The Shanghai government has issued a plan to enhance the competitiveness of non-ferrous metal commodities, aiming to improve resource allocation and global pricing influence [4][12]. - A favorable supply-demand balance, characterized by limited supply growth and improving demand, is expected to support the long-term strength of the non-ferrous sector [5][13]. Investment Outlook - The Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF covers a wide range of metals, including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, allowing investors to capture various market cycles [8][16]. - Analysts suggest that geopolitical tensions may reshape global metal supply chains, potentially increasing the demand and value of strategic metals such as copper, tungsten, molybdenum, cobalt, and rare earth materials [5][13].

Group 1: Precious Metals Market Performance - The global precious metals market continues to show strength, with gold and silver prices reaching historical highs, with gold hitting $4,730.09 per ounce and silver reaching $95.457 per ounce, marking increases of over 9% and 33% respectively since the beginning of the year [1][2] - Domestic futures market also performed strongly, with Shanghai gold futures rising by 1.99% to 1,060.16 yuan per gram and Shanghai silver futures increasing by 3.62% to 23,062 yuan per kilogram [2] - The rise in precious metal prices is attributed to external market influences, including U.S. threats of tariffs on European countries, which have heightened investor demand for safe-haven assets [2] Group 2: Performance of Non-Ferrous Metals - Various non-ferrous metals have also seen significant price increases, with lithium carbonate futures reaching a limit-up close and a cumulative increase of 33.04% since the beginning of the year [2] - Other metals such as tin and nickel have recorded increases of 23.56% and 6.41% respectively [2] Group 3: Company Earnings Forecasts - As of January 20, 2025, 16 non-ferrous metal companies have reported earnings forecasts, with 12 companies expecting year-on-year profit growth, and 8 companies showing a profit increase of over 100% [3][4] - Northern Rare Earth, a leading company in the rare earth sector, anticipates a net profit of 2.176 billion to 2.356 billion yuan, representing a growth of 116.67% to 134.6% [3] Group 4: Institutional Interest and Research - 17 non-ferrous metal stocks have attracted institutional attention, with 8 stocks receiving over 10 institutional research visits [5] - Companies like Shengda Resources and Yunnan Geology have outlined future resource acquisition plans during investor meetings, indicating a focus on capital expenditure for mining projects [6] - The total net buy amount from financing for these 17 stocks has reached 1.238 billion yuan, with significant contributions from companies like Zhongjin Lingnan and Yunnan Geology [6]

Core Viewpoint - As of January 19, the disclosure rate of annual performance forecasts for A-shares is 7.98%, with a peak expected in late January, where the final disclosure rate may reach around 55% [2][5]. Group 1: Performance Forecasts - The performance forecasts indicate that companies with significant net profit growth are primarily in sectors such as computing power, new energy, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, and computers [6][10]. - By January 19, 447 A-share companies have released annual performance forecasts, with 144 companies expecting net profit growth exceeding 50%, mainly in computing power (semiconductors, communication equipment), new energy (batteries, photovoltaics), and chemicals [6][10]. Group 2: Market Reactions - As the performance forecasts enter their peak disclosure period, the correlation between stock prices and performance is expected to increase significantly in the latter half of January, with market sentiment returning to rationality [5]. - The market is likely to undergo a structural adjustment based on fundamentals, with previous hot sectors facing performance validation, while some low-performing but high-quality sectors may attract new capital inflows [5]. Group 3: Industry Insights - The sectors with upward revisions in profit forecasts since November include technology (especially in upstream computing hardware and downstream applications like consumer electronics and software), advanced manufacturing (new energy, military, automotive), and cyclical industries (building materials, non-ferrous metals, coal, steel) [12][13]. - The industries with lower performance growth since the last market rally include AI computing power, new energy, pharmaceuticals, and cyclical sectors like steel and glass fiber [14].

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300337 | 银邦股份 | 15.52 | -8.92% | 108.39万 | 17.41亿 | | 002171 | 楚江新材 | 13.99 | -4.24% | 96.56万 | 13.67亿 | | 002824 | 和胜股份 | 20.96 | -3.50% | 23.52万 | 26667 | | 300328 | 直安科技 | 17.40 | -2.85% | 40.07万 | 7.05亿 | | 603115 | 海星股份 | 23.56 | -2.81% | 17.96万 | 4.27亿 | | 002501 | 利源股份 | 2.51 | -2.71% | 104.22万 | 2.63亿 | | 002295 | 精艺股份 | 12.20 | -2.71% | 7.41万 | 9101.96万 | | 002988 | 蒙美新材 | 38.01 | -2.59% | 4.22万 | 1.61亿 | | 603876 | 鼎 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the resilience of the non-ferrous metal sector, as evidenced by the performance of the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876), which saw a price increase of 0.18% and a net subscription of 28.8 million units, reflecting strong investor confidence in the sector [1][3] - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a significant upward trend driven by multiple factors, including global capital expenditure cycles, manufacturing recovery, enhanced monetary attributes, and improved domestic macro expectations, with institutions generally agreeing on the bullish outlook for the sector [3][4] - The Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF has reached a record size of 1.626 billion yuan as of January 19, indicating strong market interest and positioning it as the largest ETF tracking the non-ferrous metal index [3][4] Group 2 - Key stocks in the non-ferrous metal sector have shown substantial gains, with Hunan Silver, Baiyin Nonferrous, and Mingtai Aluminum hitting the daily limit, while Nanshan Aluminum and Shanjin International also reported significant increases [4] - The Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF and its linked funds cover a wide range of industries, including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, allowing for better capture of the sector's beta performance across different economic cycles [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of the non-ferrous metal sector, particularly the Huabao ETF (159876), indicates strong investor confidence, with significant net subscriptions and price resilience, suggesting a bullish outlook for the sector [1][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 20, the Huabao ETF (159876) showed resilience with a price increase of 0.18%, and it received a net subscription of 28.8 million units, following a remarkable 644 million yuan in subscriptions over the previous ten days [1][9]. - The total market capitalization of the Huabao ETF reached 1.626 billion yuan, setting a new historical high as of January 19 [3][11]. Group 2: Stock Performance - Key stocks in the non-ferrous metal sector, such as Hunan Silver, Silver Industry, and Mingtai Aluminum, experienced significant price increases, with Hunan Silver and Silver Industry both hitting the daily limit of 10.03% [2][12]. - Other notable performers included Nanshan Aluminum with a 7.49% increase and Shanjin International with a 5.71% rise [2][12]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - Analysts believe that the non-ferrous metal sector is driven by multiple factors, including global capital expenditure cycles, manufacturing recovery, and improved domestic macroeconomic expectations, leading to a consensus that the sector will continue to perform well [3][11]. - Institutions like CICC and Zhongtai Securities predict a bull market for the non-ferrous industry by 2026, driven by a combination of monetary, demand, and supply factors [3][11]. Group 4: Gold Market Dynamics - The geopolitical risks and inflation pressures have led to a surge in gold prices, with the international COMEX gold reaching a historic high of $4,723 per ounce [2][10]. - Ever-increasing demand for gold as a traditional safe-haven asset is expected to make it an essential part of asset allocation strategies by 2026 [2][10]. Group 5: ETF Coverage - The Huabao ETF and its linked funds cover a wide range of sectors, including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, allowing investors to capture the beta performance across different economic cycles [6][14].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the active trading of the Huabao Nonferrous ETF (159876), which saw a price increase of over 1% at the opening but later experienced a decline of 0.98% as the market consolidated. The ETF has attracted a net subscription of 26.4 million units, following a significant inflow of 644 million yuan over the past ten days [1][10] - The Huabao Nonferrous ETF has reached a new historical high in size, amounting to 1.626 billion yuan, making it the largest ETF tracking the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index among three such ETFs in the market [5][13] - The ETF covers a wide range of sectors including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, allowing it to capture various market cycles such as precious metals (safe-haven), strategic metals (growth), and industrial metals (recovery) [7][16] Group 2 - Ming Tai Aluminum has seen a significant stock price increase of 9.99%, with a projected net profit for 2025 estimated between 1.95 billion to 2 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12% to 14%. The company attributes this growth to the low-carbon advantages of its recycled aluminum products [2][11] - Other notable stocks include Nanshan Aluminum and Hunan Silver, which have also experienced price increases of over 5%, while several other companies in the nonferrous sector have shown positive performance [4][14] - The macroeconomic context includes geopolitical tensions leading to potential tariffs on goods from Denmark, Norway, and Sweden, which may impact the nonferrous metals market. Additionally, gold prices have surged significantly, with expectations of further increases due to ongoing buying from central banks and insurance companies [3][12]

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown strong performance at the beginning of 2026, driven by a combination of market trends, seasonal factors, and recovery in overseas markets [1][2] - Recent market fluctuations are attributed to the implementation of counter-cyclical adjustment policies and profit-taking in popular sectors, which are considered healthy adjustments that do not alter the overall upward trend [1][2] - The macroeconomic environment is expected to support five key investment themes for the year: the artificial intelligence industry chain, high-dividend assets, anti-involution sectors, domestic demand expansion, and resource sectors [1][5] Group 2 - The spring market rally is historically supported by liquidity and valuation drivers, typically lasting around 57 days, with the current phase still in its early stages [2] - Positive performance in overseas markets, particularly in Japan and South Korea, has significantly boosted investor sentiment in the A-share market [2] - Recent adjustments in the A-share market, including changes in financing margin ratios, are aimed at curbing excessive leverage and maintaining a stable upward trend [2][3] Group 3 - Investment strategies must adapt to changing market conditions, emphasizing the importance of position management and avoiding excessive leverage [3][4] - Investors are encouraged to develop independent judgment capabilities to avoid speculative traps and focus on fundamental research [3][4] - The market is transitioning from a speculative phase to one driven by fundamentals, with a focus on true technological growth and value [3][4] Group 4 - Four strategic recommendations for the pre-Spring Festival period include maintaining moderate positions, adopting a barbell strategy for asset allocation, focusing on specific technology sectors, and enhancing individual stock fundamental research [4] - The artificial intelligence industry chain is expected to shift towards application opportunities in 2026, with a focus on sectors like media and computing [5] - High-dividend assets remain a stable investment choice, with sectors such as white goods, banking, and utilities providing low volatility and steady returns [5] Group 5 - The anti-involution sector is entering a phase driven by fundamentals, with industries like coal, steel, and lithium batteries expected to see improved performance due to industry consolidation [5] - The expansion of domestic demand should focus on new consumption areas such as health, sports, and travel, which are expected to benefit from policy support [5] - Resource sectors, particularly strategic and industrial metals, are anticipated to experience valuation recovery in 2026, presenting potential investment opportunities [5][6]