Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The strategy is based on the research reports "Strategy Portfolio Report under Industry Rotation: Quantitative Analysis from the Perspective of Industry Style Continuity and Switching" (20241007) and "Research on the Overview and Allocation Methods of the Stock - type ETF Market: Taking the ETF Portfolio Based on the Industry Rotation Strategy as an Example" (20241013) to construct a strategy portfolio of industry and theme ETFs [2] - In the week of 20250811, the model recommends allocating sectors such as joint - stock banks, games, and semiconductors. In the next week, the strategy will newly hold products like Game ETF, Science and Technology Innovation Chip Design ETF, and Satellite ETF, and continue to hold products like Bank ETF, Financial Real Estate ETF, and Gold Stock ETF [2] - As of last weekend, some ETFs and the trading timing signals of the underlying indexes gave daily or weekly risk warnings [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Performance Tracking - During the period from 20250804 to 20250808, the cumulative net return of the strategy was about 2.62%, and the excess return relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about 1.41% [3] - From October 14, 2024, to the present, the cumulative out - of - sample return of the strategy was about 7.08%, and the cumulative excess relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about - 0.79% [3] Future 1 - Week Recommended ETFs (20250811 - 20250815) | Fund Code | ETF Name | Holding Status | ETF Market Value (billion yuan) | Heavy - Positioned Shenwan II Industry and Weight | Weekly Timing Signal | Daily Timing Signal | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 512800 | Bank ETF | Continue to hold | 151.38 | Joint - stock banks (44.73%) | 1 | - 1 | | 159869 | Game ETF | Transfer in | 73.17 | Games (81.29%) | 1 | 1 | | 588780 | Science and Technology Innovation Chip Design ETF | Transfer in | 2.77 | Semiconductors (95.73%) | 1 | 1 | | 159940 | Financial Real Estate ETF | Continue to hold | 7.99 | Securities (29.12%) | 1 | - 1 | | 517520 | Gold Stock ETF | Continue to hold | 46.34 | Precious metals (41.51%) | 1 | 1 | | 510000 | Central Enterprise ETF | Continue to hold | 1.21 | State - owned large - scale banks (18.11%) | 1 | 1 | | 512690 | Wine ETF | Continue to hold | 152.39 | Baijiu (85.37%) | - 1 | - 1 | | 159206 | ZETF | Transfer in | 1.33 | Military electronics II (34.22%) | 1 | 1 | | 159786 | VRETF | Transfer in | 1.32 | Optoelectronics (26.64%) | 1 | 1 | | 159652 | Non - ferrous 50 ETF | Transfer in | 5.21 | Industrial metals (49.34%) | 1 | 1 | [9] Near 1 - Week ETF Holdings and Performance (20250804 - 20250808) | Fund Code | Current Holding Status | ETF Name | ETF Market Value (billion yuan) | Near 1 - Week Increase/Decrease (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 562550 | - | Green Power ETF | 1.21 | 1.50 | | 512800 | Continue to hold | Bank ETF | 151.38 | 1.99 | | 512690 | Continue to hold | Wine ETF | 152.39 | 1.06 | | 159768 | - | Real Estate ETF | 6.13 | 2.14 | | 159940 | Continue to hold | Financial Real Estate ETF | 7.99 | 1.41 | | 515220 | Transfer out | Coal ETF | 80.20 | 3.78 | | 159996 | Transfer out | Home Appliance ETF | 12.72 | 2.55 | | 510060 | Continue to hold | Central Enterprise ETF | 1.21 | 1.42 | | 516550 | Transfer out | Agricultural ETF | 1.87 | 1.76 | | 517520 | Continue to hold | Gold Stock ETF | 46.34 | 8.91 | | - | ETF Portfolio Average Return | - | - | 2.62 | | 510300 | - | CSI 300 ETF | 3819.72 | 1.21 | | - | ETF Portfolio Excess Return | - | - | 1.41 | [10]

Group 1 - Di'er Laser achieved a net profit of 327 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 38.37% [1] - The company reported a revenue of 1.17 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 29.20% [1] - Basic earnings per share were 1.20 yuan, up 37.93% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - Hubei Yihua's subsidiary has successfully completed and put into operation a project with an annual production capacity of 400,000 tons of ammonium phosphate and 200,000 tons of sulfur-based compound fertilizer [2] - The project includes various production facilities, such as a 800,000 tons/year sulfuric acid plant and a 350,000 tons/year wet-process phosphoric acid plant [2] Group 3 - Luxshare Technology is planning to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [4] - The company is currently in discussions with relevant intermediaries to advance this plan [4] Group 4 - Yingli Co., Ltd. plans to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary in Singapore with an investment of 2 million USD [5] - The subsidiary will serve as an overseas investment platform to support the company's international business development [5] Group 5 - New World reported a proposed cash dividend of 0.04 yuan per share, totaling 25.875 million yuan [47] - The record date for the dividend is set for August 14, 2025 [47] Group 6 - Industrial Fulian reported a net profit of 1.211 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 38.61% [41] - The company achieved a revenue of 36.076 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 35.58% year-on-year [41] Group 7 - Yanjing Beer reported a net profit of 1.103 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 45.45% [45] - The company's revenue reached 8.558 billion yuan, growing by 6.37% compared to the previous year [45] Group 8 - New Strong Union reported a net profit of 3.996 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a significant year-on-year increase of 496.60% [23] - The company achieved a revenue of 22.096 billion yuan, representing a growth of 108.98% year-on-year [23] Group 9 - China Nuclear Power announced the successful pouring of the first concrete for the nuclear island of the No. 1 unit at the Zhejiang Jin Qimen Nuclear Power Station, marking the start of the main construction phase [56] - The unit utilizes China's independently developed "Hualong One" nuclear technology, with a rated capacity of 1.215 million kilowatts [56]

有色金属行业周报（2025.08.04-2025.08.10） 核心结论 本周核心关注一：美联储部分官员释放鸽派信号，特朗普提名新理事 8 月 6 日，美国明尼阿波利斯联储主席、2026 年 FOMC 票委卡什卡利媒体 采访时表示，"经济正在放缓"，因此"在短期内开始调整联邦基金利率可 能变得合适"。他重申，他个人仍预计到今年年底会有两次降息。此外旧金 山联储主席戴利也发出了类似鸽派呼声，称美联储可能需要在未来几个月降 低利率。8 月 8 日清晨，特朗普在 Truth Social 社交平台上宣布，提名现任 白宫经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）出任美联储理事。 本周核心关注二：中国收紧锂矿审查，加速供应重构，宁德时代枧下窝矿区 确认(8 月 9 日)24 时停产，短期无复产计划 行业周报 | 有色金属 宁德时代枧下窝矿区确认停产，或引发碳酸锂价格上涨 据期货日报，据市场多方交叉证实，宁德时代旗下机下窝矿区采矿端将于 (8 月 9 日)24 时正式停产。自 8 月 10 日起，该矿区采矿作业全面暂停，且短 期内无复产安排。后续影响仍待观察。 本周核心关注三：美国 7 月服务业 PMI ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 5.78%, ranking second among all primary industries, with precious metals leading at 8.04% [14][1] - The report highlights the impact of U.S. interest rate cut expectations on industrial metal prices, leading to a broad price increase across the sector [29][28] - The ongoing purchase of gold by the People's Bank of China for nine consecutive months is noted as a significant factor supporting gold prices [49][52] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.11%, with the non-ferrous metals sector outperforming by 3.67 percentage points [14] - All sub-sectors within non-ferrous metals experienced gains, with precious metals, new materials, industrial metals, small metals, and energy metals increasing by 8.04%, 6.84%, 5.79%, 5.35%, and 3.94% respectively [14] Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Prices are under short-term pressure due to increased inventories domestically and internationally, with LME copper at $9,768/ton and SHFE copper at ¥78,490/ton [33][2] - **Aluminum**: Prices are influenced by macroeconomic sentiment, with LME aluminum at $2,615/ton and SHFE aluminum at ¥20,680/ton, expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [37][3] - **Zinc**: Prices increased with LME zinc at $2,834/ton and SHFE zinc at ¥22,515/ton, despite mixed inventory changes [43][4] - **Tin**: Prices rose to $33,605/ton for LME tin and ¥267,780/ton for SHFE tin, supported by tight supply conditions [47][5] Precious Metals - **Gold**: The report notes a closing price of $3,458.20/oz for COMEX gold and ¥787.80/g for SHFE gold, with a bullish outlook due to ongoing central bank purchases and expectations of interest rate cuts [49][52]

Core Viewpoint - The high dividend sectors in the Hong Kong stock market have long-term investment value under the current liquidity easing environment, driven by stable earnings in banks and improved supply-demand dynamics in midstream material industries [1] Group 1: High Dividend Sectors - High dividend stocks continue to attract low-cost capital inflows due to declining non-standard investment returns [1] - The banking sector maintains stable profitability and dividend levels, contributing to the attractiveness of high dividend stocks [1] - The PPI stabilization expectations enhance the profitability recovery of companies in the midstream materials sector, such as coke and rebar [1] Group 2: Insurance Sector - The insurance sector shows a strong trend towards concentration among leading companies, with improved performance certainty driven by long-cycle assessments and interest rate cuts [1] Group 3: Investment Products - The Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend ETF (159331) tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Index (930914), which selects 30 liquid stocks with high dividend yields [1] - The index primarily covers traditional high dividend sectors such as banking, ports, and highways, while also including industrial metals and telecom operators [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Cathay CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Investment ETF linked A (022274) and C (022275) [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The current period is seen as an investment opportunity for the gold sector, driven by expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [8][12][13] - Economic indicators suggest that maintaining high growth is challenging, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts [14] - The impact of tariffs is becoming evident, with expectations of rising inflation due to the depletion of low-cost inventories [15] Summary by Sections Gold Sector - The gold sector is viewed as a timely investment opportunity, with recent employment data indicating a shift towards lower growth expectations, enhancing the likelihood of interest rate cuts [13][14] - The average tariff rate in the U.S. has reached 20.1%, which is expected to further influence inflation in the coming quarters [15] Steel Sector - The steel industry is experiencing short-term profit fluctuations but is expected to stabilize and recover in the medium term due to the "anti-involution" policy [16] - Steel consumption has increased by 3.63% week-on-week, while production has shown a mixed trend with a notable rise in rebar production [21][18] - Overall steel inventory has risen, but structural improvements in demand are anticipated [23] - The cost of steel production is expected to stabilize, with short-term cost reduction potential diminishing [27] - Steel prices are projected to continue rising, supported by the "anti-involution" policy [36] New Energy Metals - The production of lithium carbonate in June 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 20.95%, indicating strong supply dynamics [41] - The demand for new energy vehicles remains robust, with production and sales showing substantial growth [45] - Prices for lithium, cobalt, and nickel have generally increased, reflecting strong market conditions [50]

(2)"反内卷"及供应约束驱动有色的商品属性。国内反内卷虽少正面涉及工业金属，但反内卷旨在优化 产业结构，激活生产要素，改善市场预期，当中下游各个环节的盈利改善，上游金属的涨价向下游的传 导将更为顺畅。但是，有色金属供应端的约束普遍存在：新发现铜矿数量有限，资本性开支不足，导致 全球能源革命对铜需求强劲的阶段，精炼铜供应增速受限；国内电解铝产能接近"天花板"，海外电解铝 投资进度受基建、配套能源制约，全球电解铝供应增速低于3%；钼、锑、铀、铼等小金属则面临投资 不足和资源衰竭的影响，不能满足日益高涨的高端产品需求。供应受限、需求韧性、下游可顺价将推动 有色的价格稳步上行。 智通财经APP获悉，中信建投发布研报称，美国经济及就业数据表现不佳，叠加特朗普提名经济顾问委 员会主席斯蒂芬.米兰担美联储理事，强化市场对美联储于9月降息的预期，有色板块普涨。除却美联储 处于降息通道带来的货币宽松外，国内正在推行的"反内卷"优化生产要素，提升各环节盈利能力和改善 市场预期，有利于金属价格上涨向下游的传导。此外，工业金属板块的估值处于偏低的水平，亦有向上 修复的空间。EPS与PE双击的有色牛市正在启动。 中信建投主要观点如下 ...

Market Overview - From August 4-8, the equity market showed a significant rebound, with the Wande All A closing at 5667.68, up 1.94% from August 1, and the China Convertible Bond Index rising 2.31%[9] - Year-to-date, the Wande All A has increased by 12.86%, while the China Convertible Bond Index has risen by 12.84%[9] Market Characteristics - The current market rebound exhibits "tail" characteristics, similar to the period from late February to early March, characterized by rapid sector rotation and high volatility[1][12] - The market has experienced a "volume contraction followed by expansion" pattern, indicating a potential shift in trading dynamics[12] Investment Strategy - In a "tail" market, the difficulty of capturing profits increases, suggesting a need for cautious strategies such as reducing positions at highs and reallocating to more stable assets[2] - Signals indicating a nearing market peak include a shift of funds to lower-priced sectors and a decrease in trading volume[2] Convertible Bond Market Insights - The median price of convertible bonds has surpassed 130 yuan, driven by strong underlying stock performance and a persistent "yield scarcity" in pure debt instruments[3][57] - As of August 8, the valuation centers for convertible bonds at various price levels have increased, with the 130 yuan level rising to 13.97%[25] Risk Factors - The market faces risks from accelerated sector rotation and potential unexpected adjustments in convertible bond market rules[4] - Ongoing uncertainties in international relations, particularly between the U.S. and China, may exert additional pressure on market performance[20]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of U.S. economic data and policy changes on gold and industrial metal prices, highlighting the potential for price fluctuations due to inflation data and supply disturbances in the market [1][2][3]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Recent weak U.S. economic data has led to increased expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, contributing to a decline in the U.S. dollar index and a rise in gold prices [2]. - The White House's announcement to clarify misinformation regarding gold tariffs has put downward pressure on gold prices, despite initial gains [2]. - Upcoming U.S. inflation data (CPI and PPI) is critical, with market expectations for July CPI at 0.2% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year, which could further influence gold price volatility [2][3]. Group 2: Industrial Metals Analysis - The transition into a seasonal demand phase shows weak current demand but potential marginal improvements in demand expectations, supported by supply disturbances in certain industrial metals [3]. - Domestic policies aimed at expanding demand are showing effects, with July CPI remaining stable and PPI decreasing by 3.6% year-on-year, indicating a tightening competitive market [3]. - The nomination of Milan to the Federal Reserve may influence previous consensus on tariffs and inflation, potentially enhancing expectations for interest rate cuts, which could support industrial metal prices [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The report highlights that copper prices are experiencing fluctuations due to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with recent price changes of +1.13% for LME copper, +0.11% for SHFE copper, and +0.95% for COMEX copper. Inventory levels for copper have increased across major exchanges, indicating a potential short-term weakness in prices [6][28]. - Aluminum prices are expected to remain stable due to rising inventories, with current prices for alumina holding steady at 3,240 CNY/ton. The report anticipates aluminum prices to fluctuate between 20,000 and 21,000 CNY/ton in the short term [6][41]. - Lithium prices have surged significantly, with carbonate lithium prices rising by 0.77% to 71,900 CNY/ton, driven by supply disruptions. The report suggests that the upcoming peak demand season may support lithium prices [6][82]. - Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to a temporary export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which is likely to accelerate the depletion of raw material inventories [6][94]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals sector has outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 5.78% compared to a 2.11% rise in the index, ranking second among all sectors [12][13]. - The current PE_TTM for the non-ferrous sector is 21.72, while the PB_LF is 2.51, indicating a premium over the broader market [23][26]. 2. Industrial Metals Copper - LME copper prices increased by 1.13%, with inventories rising by 9.95%. The current copper smelting profit margin is negative at -2,223 CNY/ton [28]. Aluminum - LME aluminum prices rose by 2.51%, with inventories showing mixed trends. The profit margin for aluminum production has increased to 4,257 CNY/ton [41]. Lead and Zinc - Lead prices increased by 1.78%, while zinc prices rose by 3.61%. The profit margin for zinc mining has improved to 7,020 CNY/ton [54][66]. 3. Energy Metals Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices have increased by 0.77% to 71,900 CNY/ton, with lithium spodumene prices rising by 2.91% to 777 USD/ton. The report indicates a potential for profit margins to improve in the lithium sector [82]. Cobalt - Domestic cobalt prices have decreased by 3.62% to 266,000 CNY/ton, but the report anticipates upward pressure on prices due to supply constraints from the DRC [94].