基本面方面，国内春节临近，终端普遍放假，锌下游企业开工率明显下滑。上周镀锌企业周度开工环比 降7.49个百分点至38.6%；压铸锌合金企业周度开工环比降3.94个百分点至42.4%；氧化锌企业周度开工 环比降8.16个百分点至50.37%。当前市场现货交投清淡，消费情绪低迷，对锌价形成明显制约。不过， 受其他有色金属走强带动，且炼厂春节期间或有检修，预计春节期间锌锭累库幅度约2万吨。 对于锌价走势，前期价格涨速过快、幅度较大，沪锌盘面开启降波调整，但结构性矛盾依旧存在，沪伦 比走弱，不排除出口窗口再度打开，外盘偏强对内盘形成有力支撑，预计今日现锌涨跌幅度有限。 【ccmn.cn摘要】多空博弈但美指弱势支撑锌价，隔夜伦锌微跌0.03%；国内下游企业开工率明显下降， 现货交投萎靡，对锌价构成明显掣肘，但有色走强带动，今现锌或涨跌有限。 【ccmn.cn锌期货市场】隔夜伦锌偏弱震荡，尾盘跌幅震荡收窄，开盘报3371美元/吨，高点报3387美 元，低点报3326.5美元，尾盘收于3382美元，跌1美元，跌幅0.03%；成交量7361手减少1925手，持仓量 229354手减少711手。晚间沪锌开盘跳水，盘面维持偏弱运 ...

文字早评 2026/02/10 星期二 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、美股纳指收涨近 1%，贵金属连续两日反弹，稀土主流产品价格整体上行； 2、赛博无人驾驶电动车 Tesla Cybercab 将在得州超级工厂开启量产并投入运营；小马智行联合丰田， 首台量产铂智 4X Robotaxi 下线； 3、智光电气签订 10.04 亿元储能系统买卖合同，源杰科技拟 12.51 亿元投建光电通讯半导体芯片和器 件研发生产项目； 4、字节 AI 视频生成模型发布，阿里、百度、快手、百度已发布 AI 应用产品，后续还有 DS V4、Qwen3.5、 豆包 2.0 等。 基差年化比率： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-4.54%/-0.48%/3.40%/4.07%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-7.08%/-0.04%/6.66%/6.11%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-16.33%/0.15%/11.94%/9.80%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-3.57%/-0.76%/0.52%/2.56%。 【策略观点】 贵金属 近日美国货币政策预期分歧加剧，压制资本市场风险偏好，美股、贵金属波动加剧；国内临 ...

Group 1: Copper Market - LME copper price decreased by 1.65% to $12,855.0 per ton, while Shanghai copper fell by 3.45% to ¥100,100 per ton [2] - Import copper concentrate processing fee index dropped to -$52.37 per ton; national copper inventory increased by 4.03% week-on-week and by 62,700 tons year-on-year [2] - The operating rate of waste anode plate enterprises is at 66.88%, down by 8.19 percentage points; expected to decline further to 38.36% next week [2] Group 2: Aluminum Market - LME aluminum price fell by 3.49% to $3,026.00 per ton, and Shanghai aluminum decreased by 5.07% to ¥23,300 per ton [3] - Domestic aluminum rod inventory increased by 15,000 tons to 258,500 tons; metallurgical-grade alumina total production capacity is 110.32 million tons/year [3] - Aluminum processing comprehensive operating rate recorded at 57.9%, down by 1.5 percentage points week-on-week [3] Group 3: Gold Market - COMEX gold price increased by 6.57% to $4,988.6 per ounce; SPDR gold holdings decreased by 10.87 tons to 1,076.23 tons [4] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield curve reached its steepest level in nearly four years, influenced by rising rate cut expectations and concerns over inflation [4] - Geopolitical risks have led to a strong fluctuation in the gold market [4] Group 4: Rare Earth and Tungsten Markets - Praseodymium and neodymium oxide prices increased by 1.20% this week; December rare earth permanent magnet exports reached a historical high [5] - Tungsten prices rose by 11.98% due to tight supply and increased support for pricing [5] - Tin prices decreased by 15.81%, but the upward trend is expected to continue despite recent volatility [5] Group 5: Lithium and Cobalt Markets - Lithium carbonate average price decreased by 13.3% to ¥148,000 per ton; lithium hydroxide average price fell by 11.6% to ¥150,000 per ton [6] - Cobalt prices decreased by 5.6% to ¥420,000 per ton; cobalt intermediate prices remained stable [6] - Nickel prices fell by 1.8% to $17,200 per ton on LME [6] Group 6: Nickel Inventory - Port nickel ore inventory decreased by 638,100 tons to 11.08 million tons [7]

沪深股通今日合计成交2730.05亿，其中贵州茅台和中际旭创分居沪股通和深股通个股成交额首位。板块主力资金方面，电子板块主力 资金净流入居首。 ETF成交方面，多只有色金属相关ETF份额大幅减少，其中有色金属ETF（512400）上周份额大减25.11亿份。龙虎榜方面，AI应用概 念股捷成股份今日2 0cm涨停，获三家一线游资（国泰海通证券三亚迎宾路、国泰海通证券上海江苏路、国盛证券宁波桑田路）合计买 入3.4 1亿。 一、沪深股通前十大成交 今日沪股通总成交金额为1257. 68亿，深股通总成交金额为1472 .37亿。 | | 沪股運（ | 2月9日 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 排名 | 股票代码 | 股票名称 | 成交金额(亿元) | | 1 | 600519 | 贵州茅台 | 21.12 | | 2 | 603986 | 兆易创新 | 18.64 | | 3 | 601899 | 蒸等电,亚 | 17.62 | | 4 | 688256 | 寒武纪 | 16.76 | | 5 | 601318 | 中国平安 | 14.75 | | 6 | 600522 | 中天科技 ...

Group 1: Overall Market Analysis - The global macro - market last week was affected by multiple variables. The reconstruction of global liquidity expectations, policy and event disturbances in core economies, and the intensification of monetary policy differentiation were the core logics. Four major variables, including the Japanese election, weak US employment, China's pro - growth policies, and Australia's interest rate hike, dominated the market game, leading to high volatility in multiple sectors [2] - Short - term market trends will be verified by a series of events such as the Japanese election results, US key economic data, and China's inflation and consumption performance. The long - term trend is related to the US AI strategy, China's industrial and investment development, global key raw material strategic reserve logic, and the background of persistent differential inflation and monetary policies [2] Group 2: Financial Futures Macro - In the Japanese House of Representatives election on February 8, the ruling coalition composed of the Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party won a majority of seats. The Bank of Canada Governor said that if Canada loses preferential trade access to the US through the USMCA, its economy may fall into recession, but this is not the central bank's baseline scenario. The Japanese Finance Minister said it's not easy to use foreign exchange reserves for tax cuts and spending, and the Japanese Prime Minister will consider reducing the consumption tax [1] RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB appreciated against the US dollar in the previous trading day. The RMB's short - term movement against the US dollar is affected by seasonal settlement demand and the US dollar index. Exporters are advised to lock in forward settlement at around 7.01, and importers can adopt a rolling purchase strategy at around 6.93 [3][4] Stock Index - The stock index fluctuated and adjusted last trading day. Short - term (before the Spring Festival), it is expected to remain volatile, and large - cap stock indices may be relatively dominant. Attention should be paid to the release of US non - farm payroll data and domestic CPI data [5] Treasury Bonds - Last week, bond futures rose overall. Whether the bond market can continue to rise this week depends on whether trading sentiment can be maintained. It is recommended to shift mid - line long positions during intraday adjustments and take profits on the March contract at high prices [6] Group 3: Commodities New Energy Lithium Carbonate - Last week, lithium carbonate futures prices fell sharply. Before the Spring Festival, downstream replenishment is over, and it is recommended to hold a light or empty position during the holiday. High volatility in the lithium carbonate futures market presents an opportunity to sell volatility [9] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a situation of weak supply and demand. In February, production schedules will decline, and inventory reduction is the main task. Industrial silicon prices may continue to decline [11][12] Non - ferrous Metals Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum is expected to fluctuate and adjust, with a support level of 23000 - 23500. It is recommended to build long positions or sell options at the support level. Alumina is expected to be weak in the long - term, but there are short - term disturbances. Cast aluminum alloy has a strong follow - up to aluminum, and attention can be paid to its price difference with aluminum [15][16] Copper - Copper prices had high volatility last week. Before the Spring Festival, it is recommended to focus on short - term range operations and be cautious about chasing up or selling down [19] Zinc - Zinc prices fluctuated narrowly. Before the Spring Festival, supply and demand are both weak. It is recommended to pay attention to this week's employment data, as weak data may support prices [20] Nickel - Stainless Steel - Nickel - stainless steel had a deep correction this week, mainly affected by the overall market and macro - level sentiment. The supply and demand are both weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of the quota release rhythm and Indonesian downstream layout [20][21] Tin - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to this week's US employment and CPI data. Weak data may support non - ferrous metal prices [23] Lead - Lead prices are expected to be weakly volatile, with support at the bottom but lack of upward drive before the Spring Festival [23] Oils and Fats, and Feeds Oilseeds - The external market of soybeans is strong, while the domestic market is weak. It is recommended to lightly try long positions, but the upside is limited [24][25] Oils and Fats - Before the Spring Festival, funds flowed out of the oils and fats market, which is expected to be weakly volatile. It is not recommended to short, and selling put options can be considered [26] Energy and Oil and Gas Fuel Oil - Fuel oil is operating weakly. Although the supply shortage has been alleviated, the demand is still weak, and attention should be paid to geopolitical uncertainties [28] Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - Low - sulfur fuel oil has a low cracking spread. The supply is abundant, the demand is stable, and the inventory decline has a slight positive impact on the cracking spread [29][30] Asphalt - Asphalt's upward trend is weak. Before the Spring Festival, demand drops to zero. The future trend will follow the cost - end crude oil, and attention should be paid to geopolitical factors and inventory pressure after the Spring Festival [30][31] Precious Metals Platinum & Palladium - Platinum and palladium prices fluctuated sharply. In the long - term, the bull market foundation remains. High volatility requires attention to position control [33][35] Gold & Silver - Gold and silver prices fluctuated sharply last week. In the short - term, operation is difficult, but the long - term upward trend remains. It is recommended to buy on dips in installments and control positions. Before the Spring Festival, it is recommended to hold a light or empty position [36][39] Chemicals Pulp - Offset Paper - Pulp futures prices are expected to continue to decline. It is recommended to partially close short positions, conduct short - term range trading, or lightly try short - term long - buying strategies. Offset paper futures can return to range trading [41][42] LPG - LPG prices are affected by geopolitical factors. The supply is neutral, and the demand from PDH is low. Attention should be paid to the change of warehouse receipts [43][44] PTA - PX - PX - PTA's valuation is returning to the fundamentals. PX is in short supply in the second quarter. It is recommended to buy on dips. PTA's high processing fees are difficult to maintain, and it is recommended to shrink the processing fees on the disk [45][48] MEG - Bottle Chips - Ethylene glycol's demand weakens seasonally. The supply - demand balance improves in the first half of the year. It is expected to fluctuate widely with the macro - environment, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [49][50] Methanol - It is recommended to hold an empty position during the Spring Festival. Methanol prices follow geopolitical and non - ferrous metal trends, and the trading is difficult [51][53] Plastic PP - Polyolefin prices are affected by macro - sentiment and cost. PE shows a trend of decreasing supply and increasing demand, and PP shows a pattern of decreasing supply and demand. Short - term attention should be paid to macro - atmosphere changes and the Iran - US conflict [54][55] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene's supply increases and demand is flat. Styrene's supply will increase in February, and demand will decline during the Spring Festival. Short - term geopolitical factors and exports support prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [56][57] Urea - Urea is in a stage of over - supply. The 05 contract has an expected price increase, but the short - term price may correct. It is recommended to close long positions and hold an empty position during the Spring Festival [58][59] Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash is oscillating weakly, and the supply is expected to remain high in the long - term. Glass has a weak supply - demand pattern and is at risk of high intermediate inventory [60][63] Propylene - Propylene prices are affected by cost, supply and demand, and market sentiment. The short - term fundamentals provide some support, but attention should be paid to risks [63][64] Black Metals Rebar & Hot - rolled Coil - Rebar's inventory is accumulating, and hot - rolled coil's inventory is changing from decreasing to increasing. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to whether they break through the lower limit of the oscillation range [65][67] Iron Ore - The supply and demand of iron ore are both weak. The port inventory is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously before the Spring Festival [68] Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal supply is seasonally shrinking, and coke's supply and demand are both recovering. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday resumption rhythm of mines and steel mills [69][70] Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are in an oscillating pattern between cost support and downstream inventory pressure. Ferrosilicon's fundamentals are slightly better [71] Agricultural and Soft Commodities Live Pigs - The live pig market is operating weakly. It is recommended to short the 03 contract and long the 05 contract in terms of the spread strategy [73][74] Cotton - Cotton prices are affected by macro - sentiment. The domestic cotton price is restricted by the internal - external price difference. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to downstream imports and new orders [75][76] Sugar - The domestic sugar demand is average, and the international raw sugar price is weak, dragging down the domestic sugar price. The upside space is limited [77][78] Eggs - The pre - holiday stocking demand for eggs has ended. It is recommended to sell the JD2603 - C - 3100 call option [79][80] Apples - Apple's pre - holiday stocking is coming to an end. The consumption peak logic is almost realized. The price is supported by delivery contradictions and is likely to rise rather than fall [81][82] Red Dates - Red dates' pre - holiday purchase and sales are slowing down. In the short - term, the price may remain low - oscillating, and in the long - term, the supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is under pressure [83]

20260209申万期货有色金属基差日报 | 品种 | 观点 | | --- | --- | | 铜 | 铜：夜盘铜价收涨1.39%。精矿供应延续紧张状态，冶炼利润处于盈亏边缘，冶炼产量虽 环比回落，但总体延续高增长。国家统计局数据显示，电力投资稳定；汽车产销正增长； 家电排产负增长；地产持续疲弱。铜价短期可能进入调整阶段。关注美元、铜冶炼产量和 | | | 下游需求等变化。 | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收涨0.59%。锌精矿加工费回落，精矿供应阶段性紧张，冶炼产量延续增长 。中钢协统计的镀锌板库存总体高位。基建投资累计增速趋缓，汽车产销正增长；家电排 | | 锌 | 产负增长；地产持续疲弱。锌价可能跟随有色整体走势。建议关注美元、冶炼产量和下游 | | | 需求等变化。 | | 品种 | 国内前日期货 收盘价 | 国内基差 （元/吨） | 前日LME3月 期收盘价 | LME现货升贴水 （CASH-3M） | LME库存 （吨） | LME库存日 度变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | （元/吨） | | (美元/吨） | （美元/吨） | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The price of finished products is expected to move downward with a weak trend and fluctuate and consolidate. The price of aluminum ingots is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, and resume production around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting 741,000 tons of construction steel output. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - Finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center continues to move down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [2] Aluminum Ingots - Last week, Shanghai aluminum pulled back from its high. The US threat to impose tariffs on countries involved in Iranian trade will disrupt global trade flows and suppress risk appetite. The central bank carried out reverse repurchases to supplement liquidity, alleviating the panic in the domestic commodity market [2] - Domestically, Shanxi's bauxite production has resumed actively, with sufficient supply and falling prices. For imported ore, the intended transaction price has decreased, and the market is quiet. Some alumina plants are cautious in purchasing [2] - In January, China's electrolytic aluminum output increased by 2.7% year - on - year and 0.5% month - on - month. Last week, the comprehensive aluminum processing operating rate was 57.9%, a 1.5 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week, with significant differentiation among sectors [2] - The operating rate of leading aluminum plate and strip enterprises rose to 66.0%, but will decline after the completion of pre - holiday stocking. The operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises rose to 71.4% and will maintain a high level. The operating rate of aluminum cables dropped to 58% and will further decline. The operating rate of aluminum profiles dropped to 36.0%, but the demand for photovoltaic profiles is strong [2] - As of February 9, the social inventory of aluminum ingots reached 857,000 tons, a 40,000 - ton increase from last Monday. As the price drops, attention should be paid to downstream feedback, but it is expected that there will be no obvious improvement before the Spring Festival [2] Market as a Whole - Short - term market sentiment has eased, the linkage between precious metals and non - ferrous metals is still strong, and market trading sentiment is cautious. Prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [3]

节前资金离场规避长假风险 研究员：陈婧 FRM 期货从业证号：F03107034 投资咨询资格证号：Z0018401 目录 第一章 需求分析 4 第二章 供应分析 8 第三章 供需平衡及库存 11 GALAXY FUTURES 1 碳酸锂后市行情展望 综合分析 行情展望及策略推荐： GALAXY FUTURES 3 1.1.1 新能源汽车——淡季来临但好于预期 单位：万辆 单位：万辆 左轴：万辆 右轴：% 单位：GWh 新能源汽车销量结构 中国动力电芯产量 0 50 100 150 200 2022 2023 2024 2025 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 0 50 100 150 200 Jan-21 May-21 Sep-21 Jan-22 May-22 Sep-22 Jan-23 May-23 Sep-23 Jan-24 May-24 Sep-24 Jan-25 May-25 Sep-25 纯电动 插混 纯电动占比 中国新能源汽车销量 中国新能源乘用车零售 0 50 100 150 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2022 20 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of ecological protection for sustainable economic development in Guangxi, showcasing a commitment to green development and environmental conservation [1][2][5] - The government report highlights impressive ecological achievements, including a 96.1% rate of good air quality days and a 99.1% proportion of good water quality in surface water assessments [1][6] - The integration of ecological protection with economic growth is evident, as seen in the success of the Rong'an kumquat industry, which has over 230,000 acres of cultivation and nearly 10 billion yuan in total industrial output value [3][5] Group 2 - The report outlines plans for a comprehensive green transformation of the economy and society, focusing on integrated protection of natural resources and the development of a green economy [6][7] - The introduction of innovative technologies in traditional industries, such as the zinc extraction process that significantly improves efficiency and resource recovery, demonstrates a shift towards sustainable industrial practices [3][5] - The emphasis on new energy systems and the promotion of clean energy applications indicate a strategic direction towards enhancing energy supply and sustainability in Guangxi [6]

Group 1 - The company has completed the sale of all shares under the 2021 employee stock ownership plan by February 6, 2026, ahead of the plan's expiration on February 10, 2026 [1][2] - The employee stock ownership plan was approved during board meetings on August 18, 2021, and September 8, 2021, and involved the purchase of 5.0761 million shares at an average price of 11.40 yuan per share, totaling approximately 57.84 million yuan, which represents 0.44% of the company's total share capital [2] - The company adhered to market trading rules and regulations during the implementation of the employee stock ownership plan, ensuring no insider trading occurred [2]