专题：专题｜深交所2025全球投资者大会：投资中国就是投资未来 具体来看： 创业板汇聚了中国经济转型升级的核心领域，电力设备及新能源、医药、电子、计算机等多个高科技行 业占比逐年提升。宁德时代、迈瑞医疗等龙头企业已形成全球竞争力。 其次从制度创新的角度来看，创业板作为中国资本市场近年来改革的试验田，推出了多项创新举措。其 中，2020年推行注册制改革后，创业板审核周期大幅缩短，发行市盈率市场化定价，为创新企业提供高 效融资通道。从制度层面也进一步提升了创业板的市场活力与规范性。 从估值和盈利角度看，当前创业板的投资价值也非常凸显。以创业板代表性指数创业板指和创业板50指 数为例，截至2025/5/16，指数的市盈率分别为31、30倍，分别处于近5年24%、27%分位。比历史70% 以上的时间便宜。同时，根据Wind一致预测，创业板指和创业板50未来两年净利润复合增长率都超过 了29%。可谓是估值和盈利均合意的投资标的。 最后，从投资便利度上看，国际投资者当前除了可以通过陆股通、QFII等渠道投资创业板，还可以通过 ETF互通项目参与创业板投资。截至2025/5/16，共有11只创业板ETF（创业板指、创业50 ...

2025 年 05 月 18 日 主力资金有效性持续修复，景气预期超额收益开 始抬头 —行业和风格因子跟踪报告 投资要点 ▌ 行业因子最新变动情况 上周 3400 得而复失，回调后仍站上 3350。我们最新推荐 的非银行业收益亮眼。因子角度来看近期市场热点受事件 驱动影响较大，分析师短期预期表现更好，也能抓住非银 的反弹行情。此外市场资金驱动特征明显，主力资金因子 多头的非银、汽车领涨市场。动量反转层面处于反转因子 和短端动量的交接时刻，可以提前关注短期动量有效性的 回升。财报质量因子继续偏向成长口径，景气投资思路有 效性开始小幅回升。 整体看行业轮动因子指向内需成长板块：大盘成交金额持 续在 1.1 万亿以上，主题投资和景气投资均有反弹，主力 资金因子反弹延续，本期主力资金因子行业选择电子、电 力设备及新能源、医药、机械、有色金属、非银行金融。 长期分析师预期非银行金融、建材、交通运输、电力及公 用事业、有色金属，空头无意义。短期分析师预期指向农 林牧渔、消费者服务、非银行金融、机械、有色金属。本 期选择行业继续偏向内需中的成长，继续关注低位消费短 期反弹机会。 ▌ 定量行业推荐 基于权重分配，我们推荐内资 ...

投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 宏 观 金 融 周 报 2025年5月12日 [Table_Title] 央行超预期降准和降息，提振国内市场情绪 ——股指期货周报 [table_main] 投资要点： 行情走势：上周沪深 300 指数收于 3846.16 点，较前值上升 2.00%；累计成交 10176 亿元，日均成交 2035 亿元，较前值下降 141 亿元。两市融资融券余额 为 17919 亿元。表现较好的前五名行业分别是国防军工(6.44%)、通信(5.43%)、 银行(3.98%)、机械(3.82%)、电力设备及新能源(3.80%)；表现较差的前五名行 业分别是医药(0.98%)、农林牧渔(0.84%)、电子元器件(0.72%)、房地产(0.65%)、 消费者服务(0.30%)。 期现基差行情：IF、IH、IC、IM 当月合约基差分别为-5.96 点、-0.41 点、 -19.32 点、-25.88 点。前一周同期值分别为-18.57 点、-5.96 点、-41.62 点、-44.72 点。 跨期价差行情：IF 合约次月-当月、当季-次季、次季-当季价差分别为-31.60 点、-6 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock performance that will exceed the market by more than 20% within the next six months [11]. Core Insights - The company reported strong performance in Q1 2025, achieving revenue of 84.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.96 billion yuan, up 32.9% year-on-year [3][6]. - The company is expanding its global market presence, particularly in Europe, where its market share in the power battery sector has increased from 17% in 2021 to 38% in 2024 [6]. - The company is actively developing new business models, including battery swapping and ultra-fast charging technologies, which are expected to drive future growth [7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 84.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.2% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 17.7% due to seasonal factors [3][6]. - The net profit for the same period was 13.96 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 32.9% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 5.3% [3][6]. - The operating cash flow remained strong at 32.9 billion yuan, with cash and cash equivalents exceeding 320 billion yuan at the end of the quarter [3]. Market Expansion - The company has seen significant growth in its battery sales, exceeding 120 GWh in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of over 30% [6]. - The company is focusing on emerging markets such as the Middle East and Australia, where demand for energy storage is rapidly increasing [6]. Future Projections - The company forecasts a net profit of 66.26 billion yuan for 2025, with expected growth rates of 30.3% and 19.9% for 2026 and 2027, respectively [5][9]. - The projected revenue for 2025 is 460.7 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 24.3% [5][9]. Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to build 1,000 battery swapping stations by 2025 and has signed strategic agreements with major partners to enhance its battery swapping network [7]. - The company is also investing in ultra-fast charging technology, aiming to lead in this segment with its new battery products [7].

Market Performance - The A-share major indices opened lower but closed higher, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains, closing up 1.65% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.28% to 3352 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.93% [1] - Total trading volume for the day was 1.32 trillion yuan, a decrease of 183.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 3800 stocks rising [1] ETF Insights - Several ETFs tracking the ChiNext Index, including Huaxia and GF, saw gains of over 2%, leading the broad-based ETFs [1] - The E Fund ChiNext ETF has the largest scale among over 40 ETFs tracking the ChiNext Index, with a total size of 86.729 billion yuan [2] Sector Analysis - The ChiNext Index exhibits high volatility and elasticity, with most constituent stocks having a market capitalization between 10 billion to 30 billion yuan [2] - The highest sector weight in the index is in power equipment and new energy, accounting for approximately 30%, followed by pharmaceuticals, electronics, computers, and non-bank financials, indicating a growth-oriented bias [2] - Ningde Times is the largest weighted stock in the index, with a weight close to 20% [2] Historical Performance - Historical data shows that during the interest rate cuts in 2015 and 2019, the ChiNext Index recorded cumulative gains of 84.4% and 43.8%, significantly outperforming broader indices like the CSI 300 [2] Regulatory Developments - The Chairman of the CSRC, Wu Qing, announced support for the Central Huijin Investment Company to play a stabilizing role and indicated further reforms for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and ChiNext [2] - New revised regulations for major asset restructuring management for listed companies will be released to enhance the role of capital markets in mergers and acquisitions [2] Future Index Adjustments - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange announced revisions to the ChiNext Index compilation scheme, set to take effect on June 16, 2025, including an ESG negative exclusion mechanism and a weight cap for individual stocks [3][4] - These adjustments aim to optimize the index compilation method and enhance its investability, responding to market feedback and incorporating innovative ideas from recent broad-based index compilations [4]

市场短期补涨后或有回档 证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 05 04 年 月 日 量化周报 市场短期补涨后或有回档。节前（4.28-4.30），大盘震荡下行，上证指数 全周收跌 0.49%。在此背景下，大部分指数迎来了一波 30 分钟级别回调。 节日期间，海外及港股市场均出现了不同程度的上涨，我们认为受此影响， A 股市场短期或将出现补涨，当下我们认为，经历了贸易战的冲击后，市 场的底部区间已然探明，市场补涨完成后将会选择方向，我们仍倾向于市 场再次回档，具体原因如下：1、本轮回调从高点到低点指数调整幅度均已 超过 10%，有些指数甚至超过 20%，调整幅度基本充分；2、大部分规模 指数的日线级别下跌只走了 1 浪结构，时间和结构不够充分；3、28 个中 信一级行业中，仍有 8 个行业处于日线级别上涨中，而处于日线下跌的 20 个行业中，9 个行业日线下跌只走了 1 浪结构，结构不够充分。中期来看， 上证指数、上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、深证成指、创业板指、科创 50 纷纷确认周线级别上涨，而且在日线上只走出了 1 浪结构，中期牛市刚刚 开始；此外，已有 21 个行业 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The report suggests that gold prices have experienced a significant adjustment since April 22, 2025, with a cumulative decline of 5.35% by May 2, 2025, following a substantial increase of over 200% since early 2024 [1][9] - The U.S. economy's growth rate has turned negative in Q1 2025, with a seasonally adjusted annual rate of -0.3%, which is below market expectations and marks the first negative growth since Q1 2022 [12][19] - The report indicates that the U.S. employment market is showing signs of mild cooling, with April 2025 non-farm payrolls increasing by 177,000, down from 185,000 in March [20][24] - U.S. fiscal spending has slowed down, primarily due to a reduction in defense spending, with government consumption and investment growth at 0.8% in Q1 2025 [25][26] - The technical analysis of gold suggests that the price has reached its target levels, and further upward movement will require either a new accumulation phase or significant new capital inflows [31][36] Group 2: Macro Asset Quantitative Insights - The report highlights a recovery in the earnings outlook for equities in Q1 2025, with a stable credit environment and government bonds continuing to dominate [2][8] - It predicts a potential decline of 9 basis points in the 10-year government bond yield to 1.53% in May 2025, driven by falling economic growth and inflation factors [2][15] - The real estate sector is experiencing a rebound in industry pressure, with an index reading of 0.500, indicating a slight improvement in market conditions [2][20] Group 3: Style and Sector Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high win-rate and high-odds sectors such as electric equipment and new energy, computing, non-ferrous metals, machinery, electronics, and steel, which have shown an absolute return of 12.05% since 2024 [4][29] - It also suggests a "clearing reversal strategy" for sectors that are at the end of a clearing phase, with rising demand and improved competitive dynamics, specifically recommending non-ferrous metals [4][31]

Core Viewpoint - The overall A-share market is expected to experience a decline in net profit for 2024, with a projected decrease of 3.0% for the entire market, 9.0% for the financial sector, and 14.2% for the non-financial sector, primarily due to significant impairment losses in the fourth quarter of 2024, particularly in the real estate and photovoltaic industries [1][2][3] Profit Growth - In 2024, the A-share market's net profit is forecasted to decline by 3.0%, with the financial sector showing a growth of 9.0% and the non-financial sector declining by 14.2%. The non-financial sector's revenue is expected to decrease slightly by 1%, with a significant drop in profit margins compared to 2023 [2][3] - The first quarter of 2025 shows a rebound in net profit for the A-share market, with a year-on-year growth of 3.5% for the entire market, 2.9% for the financial sector, and 4.2% for the non-financial sector, indicating a recovery in downstream industries [3][4] Profitability Analysis - The return on equity (ROE) for non-financial A-shares has remained stable, marking 15 consecutive quarters of decline since Q2 2021. The marginal improvement in net profit margins is offset by a significant decline in asset turnover rates [1][15] - Industries such as electronics, home appliances, non-bank financials, and agriculture have shown consecutive improvements in ROE over the past two quarters [15][23] Capital Expenditure and Cash Flow - Non-financial capital expenditure has been in negative growth for four consecutive quarters, but new economy sectors are seeing a rebound in capital expenditure growth. The total assets of non-financial enterprises have stabilized, with a notable increase in prepayments [2][16] - The free cash flow to equity ratio for non-financial companies has reached a historical high, supporting an increase in dividend payout ratios to 45% in 2024, with the dividend yield for the CSI 300 rising to 3.2% [2][18] Industry Performance - The first quarter of 2025 has highlighted strong performance in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, certain export chains, and TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), with significant year-on-year profit growth in these areas [3][4] - The agricultural sector has shown remarkable recovery, with a profit growth of 2541.6% due to low base effects, while non-bank financials have benefited from improved capital market conditions, achieving a profit growth of 48.7% [2][4] Market Outlook - The current economic environment suggests that the low point of the profit downturn cycle has been surpassed, but attention must be paid to the impact of tariff policies on corporate fundamentals in the second quarter of 2025 [2][38] - The market is advised to seek opportunities in sectors with recovering demand and low tariff impacts, particularly in AI-related industries and companies with strong cash flows that are less exposed to external demand [39][40]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][10]. Core Insights - The company has shown impressive performance in Q1 2025, with significant growth in overseas business [1][6]. - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 778.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.76%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 110.36 billion yuan, up 16.92% year-on-year [6]. - The company's R&D investment increased significantly, reaching 3.164 billion yuan in 2024, a growth of 29.26%, with R&D expenses accounting for approximately 4.06% of revenue [6][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 190.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.92%, and a net profit of 38.26 billion yuan, up 82.52% year-on-year [6]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 29.94%, an increase of 2.76 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin improved to 14.47%, up 1.17 percentage points [6]. Business Development - The company is focusing on strengthening its wind energy business, with significant advancements in wind power conversion technology [4][8]. - The global shipment of photovoltaic inverters reached 147 GW in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 13.1%, with revenue from power electronic conversion devices amounting to 291.27 billion yuan, up 5.33% year-on-year [6]. Market Expansion - The company has expanded its global presence, with products sold in over 180 countries and regions, and a growing number of service points worldwide [6]. - The energy storage system business saw a revenue increase of 40.21% year-on-year, reaching 249.59 billion yuan in 2024, with a gross margin of 36.69% [6]. Future Projections - The company expects EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 6.09 yuan, 6.96 yuan, and 7.80 yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of approximately 10, 9, and 8 [10].

本周是五一长假前的最后一个交易周，上市公司年报和一季报也将披露完毕，泓德基金表示，市场未来 三个月将进入业绩的真空期，外部环境的变化可能的对国内资本市场产生一定程度的扰动，但我们相 信，按照政治局会议的部署，统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，坚定不移办好自己的事，坚定不移扩 大高水平对外开放，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，以高质量发展的确定性应对外部环境急剧 变化的不确定性，中国经济这艘巨轮可以行稳致远。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 整体来看，泓德基金分析，当前政策仍处于以"筹备"和"积蓄弹性"为主的阶段，结构性调控和局部支持 依然是主旋律，这使得市场将更多将目光聚焦于中美谈判进展以及潜在的降关税交易预期上。 从债券市场看，泓德基金表示，上周利率债收益率普遍上行。信用债收益率也多数上行。MLF超额续 作短暂提振但未能扭转观望情绪，超长端波动收窄显示市场分歧仍在，市场仍在等待央行降准降息。 上周国内权益市场延续小幅反弹走势，日均成交量相较上上周变化不大，维持在1.1万亿元附近，万得 全A周涨幅为1.15%。具体来看，国内主要股指中，小型股股指涨幅较大，中证1000（+1.8%）和中证 2000（ ...