登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 分析师：张刚 资料来源：Wind,中原证券 -8% -1% 6% 14% 21% 28% 35% 42% 2025.02 2025.06 2025.10 2026.02 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | 上证指数 | | 4,102.20 | 0.85 | | 深证成指 | | 14,156.27 | 0.21 | | 创业板指 | | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 | 300 | 4,698.68 | 0.83 | | 上证 | 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 | 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 | 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 | 100 | 4,591.65 | 0.86 | | 中证 | 500 | 8,299.06 | 0.15 | | 中证 | 1000 | 6 ...

Market Strategy - The market continues to show a shrinking rebound trend, with a strong performance in dividend styles [5][7] - The overall A-share market saw a 0.45% increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.85% to 4102.20 points, while the STAR 50 Index fell by 1.20% [7][8] - The coal, construction materials, and real estate sectors performed well, while the computer, communication, and media sectors lagged behind [8] Company Updates - Qixiang Tengda (002408.SZ) has successfully launched its 8000 tons/year high-performance catalytic new materials project, enhancing its self-supply capability in high-end catalytic materials [30] - Jinshiyuan (603369.SH) anticipates short-term pressure with a focus on stabilizing prices and market share, while optimizing expense efficiency [32] - Sanquan Foods (002216.SZ) reported significant improvement in operations with rapid revenue growth from new products and reduced losses in direct sales channels [34] - Babi Foods (605338.SH) achieved a revenue of 1.859 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11.22%, with a non-net profit growth of 16.49% [36] Industry Dynamics - The Central Document No. 1 for 2026 emphasizes the modernization of agriculture and rural areas, aiming to enhance grain production and quality [25][26] - The CR450 high-speed train has completed 300,000 kilometers of testing and is expected to undergo further operational assessments in 2026 [27][28]

Core Viewpoint - The city of Zigong is committed to achieving high-quality economic development by focusing on industrial strength, cultural tourism, and urban-rural integration, aiming for a GDP of 200.37 billion yuan in 2025, representing a growth of 6.9% [1] Economic Growth - The GDP is projected to reach 200.37 billion yuan in 2025, with an industrial added value growth of 14.6% and a service sector growth of 7.9% [1] - The total foreign trade import and export volume is expected to be 6.822 billion yuan, an increase of 5.2%, ranking fifth in the province [1] Industrial Development - Modern industrial clusters are rapidly forming, focusing on sectors such as energy-saving and environmental protection equipment manufacturing, new energy, new materials, and drones [1] - The establishment of the Sichuan Low-altitude Economic Industry Chain and the launch of key projects in the aviation industry park are significant developments [1] Innovation and Technology - Zigong has created the first provincial-level digital transformation promotion center and is developing data annotation bases [1] - Traditional industries are undergoing intelligent transformation, with multiple projects recognized as national demonstration cases [1] Cultural and Tourism Integration - The city is enhancing its cultural tourism sector, with initiatives like "Chinese Lanterns Light Up the World" and "Sichuan Cuisine Internationalization" included in the 2025 cultural trade action plan [1] - The city aims to build itself into an international tourism city, with significant cultural export projects and recognition of its cultural heritage sites [1] Urban-Rural Integration - Rural residents' disposable income is expected to grow by 5.7%, with a focus on developing rural tourism and agricultural strong towns [1] - The city has established 120 rural tourism points and has been recognized for its innovative "rural environmental protection tea house" model [1]

斯托克欧洲600指数收盘几无变动，此前一度上涨0.7%。化工股录得近四年来最好一天，市场看好该地 区放宽减排规则，这助推了向增长前景势将改善的公司轮动的势头。电信和必需消费品等防御性板块也 上涨。 斯托克欧洲600指数收盘几无变动，此前一度上涨0.7%。化工股录得近四年来最好一天，市场看好该地 区放宽减排规则，这助推了向增长前景势将改善的公司轮动的势头。电信和必需消费品等防御性板块也 上涨。 欧洲股市表现平淡，汽车和化工等周期性板块的上涨抵消了科技股的下跌。诺和诺德在发布令人大跌眼 镜的销售预测之后股价暴跌17%。 相比之下，科技股延续跌势，前日软件股因市场对人工智能颠覆性影响的担忧而下跌。Cellnex Telecom SA因周二晚些时候宣布新的高层管理架构而上涨，提振了所在板块。由于金属反弹势头在尾盘消退， 矿业股回吐涨幅，最终收跌。 个股方面，葛兰素史克上涨6.9%，受HIV药物和一种现已获批用于治疗肺部疾病的哮喘药物提振，该公 司报道的第四季度业绩强于预期。诺和诺德跌幅为7月以来最大，市值蒸发超过400亿美元，给医疗保健 板块带来了压力。 桑坦德走低3.5%，此前这家西班牙的银行宣布以120亿美元收购 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing a decline in stock price and facing questions regarding its financial performance and operational strategies, particularly in relation to its profit forecasts and resource management [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - As of February 4, 2026, the company's stock closed at 19.54 yuan, down 2.25%, with a turnover rate of 5.18%, trading volume of 235,200 shares, and a transaction amount of 460 million yuan [1]. - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of 443 million to 503 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 59.03% to 80.57% [2]. Operational Insights - The company has a sulfur iron ore annual mining capacity of 3 million tons and is evaluating resource expansion based on market conditions [2]. - The company confirmed it has a complete sulfuric acid production line [2]. Market Dynamics - On February 4, there was a net outflow of 42.31 million yuan from major funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 46.28 million yuan [5]. - The company stated that fluctuations in silver prices do not affect its processing technology profits, although they do impact capital usage [3].

证券研究报告 | 策略定期报告 2026 年 02 月 04 日 1 月制造业 PMI 环比下降，煤炭价格上涨 ——行业景气观察（0204） 本周景气度改善的方向主要在消费服务和信息技术领域。上游资源品中，煤炭、 石油价格上涨；中游制造领域，新能源产业链价格多数下跌，1 月重卡销量三个 月滚动同比增幅收窄。信息技术中，DDR4 价格边际下行，12 月北美 PCB 订单 量三个月滚动同比增幅扩大。消费服务领域，鸡肉价格、飞天茅台批价上行。春 节临近生产季节性放缓，年末冲刺透支部分需求，拖累 1 月制造业 PMI 环比下 行。推荐景气较高或有改善的煤炭、石油石化、中药、白酒、电力、半导体等。 ❑【本周关注】春节临近生产季节性放缓，去年年末冲刺透支了部分需求，拖累 1 月 制造业 PMI 环比下行，寒潮拖累施工进度，建筑业景气明显下滑，服务业也有放 缓。结构上特征主要有：1）春节临近生产季节性放缓，叠加原材料价格上涨，采 购量明显下滑，或因去年年末冲刺影响，需求偏弱，生产经营预期下行，库存升至 同期较高水平；2）地缘政治风险推升油价和贵金属价格，抬高成本，叠加反内卷 背景下部分行业供给受限，购进价格和出厂价格指数均 ...

资产配置 | 动态跟踪 风险偏好主导资产表现，权益关注风格切 换 ——资产配置月报 202602 研究结论 风险提示 报告发布日期 2026 年 02 月 04 日 | 郑月灵 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120003 | | --- | --- | | | zhengyueling@orientsec.com.cn | | 021-63326320 | | | 周仕盈 | 执业证书编号：S0860125060012 | | | zhoushiying@orientsec.com.cn | | 021-63326320 | | | 提 名 沃 什 不 改 美 元 信 用 弱 化 格 局 ： | 2026-02-03 | | --- | --- | | 20260202 多资产配置周报 | | | 预期的变化利好中盘蓝筹：20260126A 股 | 2026-01-28 | | 风格及行业配置周报 | | | 以对冲配置思路应对美股/黄金"畏高" | 2026-01-19 | | 配置关注权益商品，行业聚焦中盘蓝筹： | 2026-01-04 | | ——资产配置月报 202601 | | 有关分析师的申 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the continuation of technology and resource prosperity, indicating a potential turning point for domestic demand, driven by AI infrastructure investment and signs of recovery in consumer spending [2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - Global technology hardware demand remains strong, with a temporary slowdown in storage chip price increases, yet prices remain high [2]. - Resource prices are experiencing localized increases, particularly in chemical products with significant supply constraints, while non-ferrous metal supply remains tight [2]. - Consumer recovery shows some positive signs, with high-end liquor prices stabilizing and progress in real estate policies, suggesting a potential stabilization in domestic demand [2]. Group 2: Downstream Consumption - High-end liquor prices, such as Moutai, have increased by 3.9% for original and 3.0% for bulk, likely due to pre-Spring Festival gifting demand [3]. - Real estate transactions in 30 major cities decreased by 23.1% year-on-year, with first-tier cities seeing a drop of 41.6% [3]. - Retail sales of passenger cars fell by 22.0% year-on-year, indicating ongoing pressure in the durable goods sector [3]. Group 3: Technology & Manufacturing - Storage price increases have slowed, with DRAM prices showing mixed trends; DDR4 prices decreased by 1.3% while DDR5 prices increased by 1.4% [4]. - Chemical product prices remain strong, with PX and PTA prices increasing by 5.2% and decreasing by 0.4%, respectively [4]. - Coal prices rose by 1.0% due to a brief cold snap, while industrial metal prices experienced significant volatility influenced by changes in Federal Reserve leadership [4]. Group 4: Logistics and Transportation - Passenger transport demand remained stable before the holiday, with a slight decrease of 0.2% in major cities [5]. - Freight logistics demand increased, with highway truck traffic and railway freight volume rising by 4.8% and 2.3% year-on-year, respectively [5]. - Port throughput showed a rebound, indicating a potential recovery in export activity [5].

来源：智通财经网 最新的"小非农"数据显示，美国私营企业们1月新增就业岗位远远低于经济学家们普遍预期，表明年初美国劳动力市场继续放 缓。根据ADP研究机构(ADP Research)周三发布的美国私营部门就业数据(该项数据号称"小非农")，在对前一个月数据向下进行 小幅修正后，1月份的美国私营部门就业人数仅仅增加了2.2万人，远远低于4.8万人这一经济学家们多次下调后的预测中值，并 且低于机构调查所覆盖的经济学家们给出的最低增长预期。"小非农"公布之后，"CME美联储观察工具"显示6月与12月降息概率 均有所扩张。 另一方面，对于上周五创下40年来最猛烈跌幅且波动率罕见超越比特币的全球传统避险资产——黄金而言，大幅低于预期的美 国就业数据可谓利多金价。就业市场意外走弱，进而意味着市场更愿意押注降息/更鸽牌的美联储货币政策路径，也即意味着名 义/实际利率下行趋势以及美元走弱趋势，进而推动持有无息资产黄金的机会成本下降，从而利多金价;这一机制在黄金牛市主题 交易中经常出现，即弱就业数据带动降息押注、压低收益率从而推升金价。 由于之前部分联邦政府机构停摆，美国劳工统计局(简称BLS)编制的美国官方非农就业数据被推迟 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the increasing presence of foreign individuals in Yichang, particularly during the Chinese New Year celebrations, showcasing the city's cultural integration and appeal to expatriates [1][3][5] - Thomas Ramsey, an American teacher in Yichang, shares his experiences of celebrating the Spring Festival, emphasizing the growing number of foreign residents and the welcoming environment of the city [5][6] - The article mentions the statistics of foreign teachers in Yichang, indicating that over 50 foreign educators were working in the city by the end of 2025, reflecting the city's attractiveness for international talent [6] Group 2 - The article features Chen Rong'en, a South Korean social media influencer, who has embraced life in Yichang and is actively participating in local traditions, including preparing red envelopes for the New Year [9][10] - Chen's brother, visiting from Korea, expresses surprise at the affordability of goods in Yichang, highlighting the economic differences between China and Korea [11] - The article discusses the plans for cross-border tourism between Korea and Yichang, indicating a growing interest in cultural exchange and tourism opportunities [12][13] Group 3 - The article introduces Sean, a Bangladeshi employee in Yichang, who has integrated well into the local culture and is experiencing his second Spring Festival with his employer's family, showcasing the welcoming nature of Chinese society [14][16][20] - Sean's journey from studying in China to becoming the first foreign employee at his company illustrates the opportunities available for international professionals in Yichang [18][19] - The article emphasizes the positive experiences of foreign employees in Yichang, with many expressing a desire to settle down and contribute to the local community [20] Group 4 - The article features Madelief, a Dutch teacher who has lived in Yichang for ten years, highlighting her deep connection to the city and its culture [21][23] - Madelief's experiences in Yichang, including her family life and professional contributions, reflect the city's ability to attract and retain foreign talent [24][26] - The article notes the increasing number of international employees in Yichang, with companies like Angel Yeast expanding their global presence and hiring foreign staff [27][29]