【液化石油气（LPG）投资周报】 烯烃链条需求一般， PG走势震荡转弱 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-12-29 国贸期货研究院：叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 国贸期货研究院：施宇龙 从业资格证号：F03137502 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 本周能化大宗产品收盘价格监控 | 品 种 | 单 位 | 值 现 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | 月涨跌幅 | 年涨跌幅 | 周价格走势 | 品 种 | 单 位 | 值 现 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | 月涨跌幅 | 年涨跌幅 周价格走势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美元兑人民币汇率 | 元 | 7 0358 . | -0 05% . | -0 27% . | -0 61% . | -2 13% . | | 天然橡胶 | 元/吨 | 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The wholesale prices of gasoline and diesel in China have decreased as of December 26, with average prices reported at 7457 yuan per ton for 92 gasoline and 6434 yuan per ton for diesel, reflecting a decline of 9 yuan and 7 yuan per ton respectively [1] Market Overview - The international crude oil futures market was closed on December 25 due to holidays, leading to a relatively calm news environment. Domestic terminal demand has been average, with cautious large-scale procurement and limited market transactions [1] Regional Price Changes - Gasoline wholesale prices increased in regions such as Shaanxi, Zhejiang, Jiangxi, and Shanxi, while prices decreased in Liaoning, Xinjiang, Anhui, Fujian, Hebei, and Hubei [1] - Diesel wholesale prices saw an increase in Jilin, but decreased in Gansu, Xinjiang, Shandong, Anhui, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Fujian, Hebei, Henan, and Hubei [1] - In Shandong's independent refineries, gasoline prices slightly decreased while diesel prices also fell [1] Data Source - The wholesale price data is published by the Energy Big Data Laboratory of the China Economic Information Agency and the Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Exchange Center, based on data collection from major operating units and social operating units (excluding refineries) across the country, serving as an authoritative reflection of the overall situation in China's gasoline and diesel wholesale market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the stability of international oil prices and suggests focusing on undervalued leading companies in the chemical industry, the impact of "anti-involution" on supply, and the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials and certain new energy materials amid price increases [1][7]. Industry Dynamics - During the week of December 22-28, 34 out of 100 tracked chemical products saw price increases, while 32 experienced declines, and 34 remained stable. 55% of products had month-over-month price increases, 35% saw decreases, and 10% remained unchanged [2]. - The average price of WTI crude oil was $56.74 per barrel with a weekly increase of 0.14%, while Brent crude oil was $60.64 per barrel with a 0.28% increase. Geopolitical tensions in Ukraine have affected energy infrastructure [3]. - The average price of pure MDI decreased by 4.23% to 18,100 CNY/ton, while the average price of polymer MDI fell by 2.39% to 14,300 CNY/ton. The demand from downstream industries remains weak [4]. - Acetic acid prices increased by 2.93% to 2,496 CNY/ton, with a production increase of 2.71% to approximately 238,900 tons. The overall operating rate for acetic acid was 72.15% [5][6]. Investment Recommendations - As of December 27, the SW basic chemical sector's P/E ratio is 25.60, and the P/B ratio is 2.33. The SW oil and petrochemical sector's P/E ratio is 13.17, and the P/B ratio is 1.28. The report suggests focusing on undervalued leading companies, the impact of "anti-involution," and the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials and new energy materials [7]. - Long-term investment themes include potential demand recovery supported by policies, continuous supply-side optimization, and growth in emerging sectors such as semiconductor materials and new energy materials [7]. - Recommended stocks include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and others, with a focus on companies in sectors like fluorochemicals, agriculture, refining, and textiles [7][8].

Group 1: Macro Insights - The US real estate market is currently in a "weak supply and demand" state, with expectations of a weak recovery by 2026 due to challenges in policy transmission and external risks [2] - Industrial profits in November continued to decline year-on-year, with only the midstream equipment sector showing stable growth, while upstream and downstream sectors weakened [3] - The A-share market has not shown clear signs of a bull market peak, indicating continued potential for market performance [4] Group 2: Market Strategies - The A-share market is expected to experience a spring rally supported by ongoing policy efforts and capital inflows, with a focus on growth and consumer sectors [5] - The REITs market has shown signs of price recovery after five weeks of decline, with notable returns compared to other asset classes [6] - Credit bond issuance increased by 15.42% week-on-week, indicating a positive trend in the credit market [7] Group 3: Industry Research - The green methanol sector is rapidly growing under the "carbon neutrality" initiative, with a focus on companies that have established a complete supply chain [10] - The engineering machinery industry is witnessing a recovery in domestic demand and accelerated overseas growth, with several key manufacturers recommended for investment [11] - Strategic metals are expected to see investment opportunities due to favorable supply-demand dynamics and resource nationalism [12] Group 4: Company Research - Sinopec Engineering's acquisition of the East China Pipeline Design Institute is expected to enhance its competitive edge in pipeline transportation [19] - China Oil Engineering has signed a $424 million EPC contract for a pipeline project in Kazakhstan, indicating its proactive expansion into overseas markets [20] - Jinhui Liquor is positioned to benefit from regional brand advantages and market expansion, with strong revenue and profit growth projections [21]

12月29日重点关注的财经要闻与资本市场大事： 1、中国贸促会将召开12月例行新闻发布会 12月29日下午2时30分，中国贸促会将召开12月例行新闻发布会，介绍第四届链博会筹备进展、组织中国企业家代表团访美成果、APEC"中国年"工商界相关 活动筹备情况、推动共建"一带一路"工作举措、全球知识产权保护指数报告等，并回答记者提问。 今日看点 12月29日，1家公司共发布1个股票回购相关进展。其中，1家公司回购方案已实施完毕。从已完成回购来看，安琪酵母已完成回购金额最高，回购118.88万 元。 4、5股今日股权登记 根据上市公司权益分配方案梳理统计，5只A股今日股权登记。其中，3股拟派息。分红派息方面，3只个股分红派息的股权登记日为12月29日。三元生物、 和顺石油、西南证券分红力度最大，每10股分别派息5.00元、1.00元、0.10元。 5、美国当周EIA原油库存、美国11月成屋签约销售指数等数据将公布。 （数据来源Wind，内容不构成任何投资建议） 经济观察网 编辑 王俊勇 整理 2、152.23亿元市值限售股今日解禁 12月29日，共有10家公司限售股解禁，合计解禁量为9.32亿股，按最新收盘价计算，合 ...

摘要：【图】2025年9月广西壮族自治区柴油产量数据 图表：广西壮族自治区柴油产量分月（累计值）统计 2025年9月柴油产量分析： 单独看2025年9月份，广西壮族自治区规模以上工业企业柴油产量达到了46.8万吨，与2024年同期的数 据相比，9月份的产量下降了4.3%，增速较2024年同期低8.3个百分点，增速较同期全国低7.4个百分 点，约占同期全国规模以上企业柴油产量1741.8万吨的比重为2.7%。 2025年1-9月柴油产量分析： 据国家统计局数据，在2025年的前9个月，广西壮族自治区规模以上工业企业柴油产量累计达到了327.1 万吨，与2024年同期的数据相比，下降了12.6%，增速较2024年同期高1.0个百分点，增速较同期全国低 10.1个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业柴油产量14691万吨的比重为2.2%。 图表：广西壮族自治区柴油产量分月（当月值）统计 石油化工行业最新动态 石油发展前景趋势分析 化工的现状和发展趋势 日化行业现状与发展趋势润滑油市场现状及前景分析汽油市场调研与发展前景 柴油发展现状及前景预测橡胶市场调研及发展趋势 塑料行业监测及发展趋势 化妆品未来发展趋势预测清洁护肤 ...

Group 1: Market Strategy - The market is expected to experience a "spring rally" supported by continuous policy efforts and increased capital inflows, with historical trends indicating such rallies occur almost every year in the A-share market [5] - Economic growth is anticipated to remain within a reasonable range, further solidifying the foundation for the capital market's prosperity [5] - Focus on growth and consumer sectors for industry allocation, with a specific emphasis on the commercial aerospace concept during market dips [5] Group 2: Lithium Industry - Major lithium producers have announced production cuts, which are expected to support lithium prices and improve the supply-demand balance, with carbon lithium inventory decreasing for 19 consecutive weeks [6] - The demand for energy storage is projected to boost expectations for the industry, leading to a favorable supply-demand outlook for 2026 [6] Group 3: Copper Industry - The National Development and Reform Commission has emphasized the need for enhanced management and optimization of the copper smelting industry, which is expected to support copper prices despite a decrease in cable enterprise operating rates [7] - The supply-demand situation for copper remains tight, leading to a positive outlook for copper prices [7] Group 4: Oil and Petrochemical Industry - The oil and petrochemical index saw a 15.1% increase in 2025, with strong stock performance expected from major oil companies and related engineering firms [8] - The coal chemical industry is anticipated to improve profitability due to declining coal prices and accelerated industrial upgrades [8] Group 5: Basic Chemical Industry - The basic chemical industry recorded a 41.4% increase in 2025, ranking fifth among all industries, with expectations for supply-demand optimization and recovery in profitability in 2026 [9] - Strong growth momentum is anticipated in new chemical materials driven by demand from AI, OLED, and robotics [9] Group 6: New Energy and Environmental Protection - Key areas for investment during the current spring rally include AIDC power storage, lithium batteries, and hydrogen ammonia, with significant potential for overseas orders in AIDC power [9] - The supply-side changes in lithium carbonate and the anticipated domestic energy storage tenders in 2026 are expected to enhance price support [9]

Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical industry faced significant challenges in 2025, with the China Petroleum and Petrochemical Index rising only 15.1%, underperforming compared to the CSI 300 and Wind All A indices, which reflects the impact of fluctuating oil prices and market expectations [4]. Group 1: Oil and Gas Sector Performance - The "Big Three" oil companies (China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC) demonstrated resilience amid declining oil prices and narrowing refining margins, achieving stable performance and cash flow in the first three quarters of 2025 [5]. - In the second half of 2025, the negative impact of falling oil prices diminished, leading to a recovery in stock prices for the "Big Three," with respective A-share price changes of +16.3%, -9.8%, and +0.7% [5]. - Looking ahead to 2026, the "Big Three" are expected to maintain high capital expenditures and enhance natural gas market development, aiming for long-term growth despite oil price cycles [5]. Group 2: Refining and Chemical Sector - Leading refining and chemical stocks, such as Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical, showed strong price performance, with annual increases of 43.6% and 22.9%, respectively [6]. - The petrochemical industry is currently experiencing low price differentials for key products, indicating potential for recovery as the industry undergoes high-quality development driven by capacity expansion and structural optimization [6]. Group 3: Coal Chemical Sector - Coal chemical companies like Hualu Hengsheng and Baofeng Energy saw stock price increases of 46.2% and 16.9%, respectively, amid a gradual easing of coal supply and demand since 2024 [7]. - As of December 26, 2025, the average prices for domestic coking coal, thermal coal, and anthracite were 1700 RMB/ton, 677 RMB/ton, and 931 RMB/ton, reflecting changes of +11.1%, -11.3%, and -10.5% respectively since the beginning of the year [8]. - The modern coal chemical sector is expected to develop positively in the context of energy transition, with traditional coal enterprises focusing on green transformation and deep clean utilization of coal [8].

目前沥青主力合约已经切换至2602合约，配合前期主力01合约综合来看，近期两周的沥青盘面表现为跌 后弱势震荡格局，震荡区间在2900-3000元/吨之间。现货端来看，同样是跌后弱势震荡，只是震荡区间 更窄，运行在2620-2650之间。可见这段胶着等待冬储的时间内现货市场心态明显企稳。 截至目前冬储的重头戏已经拉开帷幕，现实上周鑫海试探性放价3000元/吨，竟然也有少量接货，再者 就是12月15日山东地方炼厂京博释放的2900-2920元/吨，据反馈市场接货贸易商报盘意愿非常积极。该 冬储的释放成为今年正式冬储的风向标，将可预见的冬储成本框定在了2850-2920元/吨，后续要关注全 部炼厂冬储释放完成后看看总的冬储存量多少，也就能大概率锚定一季度的现货供需环境。 从基差结构上来看，2900元/吨的冬储现货成本对标12月15日BU2604合约的收盘价2995元/吨，最大基差 也就只有-95元/吨。分析后面的基差走势就尤为重要，而基差走势的波动主要看期货端，一般而言冬储 释放后现货价格会呈现阶段支撑，一直到冬储合同提货阶段（1-3月底），这段时间内是缺少现货环境 的，市场交易主要是围绕价格预期展开合同交易，而价 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the petrochemical sector [4] Core Viewpoints - The 2025 CITIC Petrochemical Index recorded an annual increase of 15.1%, underperforming compared to the CSI 300 and Wind All A indices, with an excess return rate of -6.8% [8][11] - The "Big Three" oil companies demonstrated resilience during periods of oil price fluctuations, with their stock prices recovering in the second half of 2025 [13][21] - The refining and chemical fiber sector showed strong stock performance, with key companies benefiting from a recovery in demand and policy support [18][22] - The coal chemical industry is expected to improve profitability due to a downward trend in coal prices and accelerated industrial upgrades [23] Summary by Sections Petrochemical Sector - The CITIC Petrochemical Index's performance was significantly impacted by oil price expectations, with a notable decline in the first half of 2025 due to OPEC+ production increases [8][11] - The "Big Three" oil companies (China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC) achieved stable performance and cash flow despite challenges, with stock price changes of +16.3%, -9.8%, and +0.7% respectively [13][21] - The refining and chemical fiber sector saw strong stock price increases, with Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Dongfang Shenghong rising by 43.6%, 22.9%, and 30.6% respectively [18][19] Coal Chemical Sector - The coal market has seen a gradual easing of supply and demand, with average prices for coking coal, thermal coal, and anthracite at 1700 RMB/ton, 677 RMB/ton, and 931 RMB/ton respectively, reflecting changes of +11.1%, -11.3%, and -10.5% year-to-date [23] - The modern coal chemical industry is expected to develop positively, driven by the need for green transformation and deep clean utilization of coal resources [23] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the "Big Three" oil companies and their subsidiaries in the oil service sector, as well as leading companies in the refining-chemical fiber and coal chemical industries [3][21]