1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - After the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, the market quickly digested the expectation and turned to shock. With the approaching holiday, the activity of the capital market decreased, and short - term style switching and partial withdrawal would occur [2]. - Without incremental negative news, the 1.8 - 1.83% range may be the high - level range for the 10 - year Treasury bond yield, but in the absence of strong positive factors, the short - term decline in interest rates is also limited [2]. - As the end of the quarter approaches, the liquidity of derivative contracts for gold tightens, and the risk of volatility is relatively large. The silver price is driven by both financial and industrial attributes, with high upward elasticity [2]. - The shipping index on the EC (European line) is rising on the disk, and the steel exports support the black valuation, with steel prices continuing to fluctuate [2]. - The geopolitical risk premium drives the oil price up, but the expected recovery of supply in the Kurdish region limits the rebound height, with short - term shock as the main trend [2]. - The supply of urea remains loose in the short term, and the demand side lacks strong drivers, so the market is weak [2]. - For agricultural products, the supply prospects of overseas sugar are broad, and new cotton is gradually coming onto the market, increasing supply pressure [2]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Financial Stock Index - TMT continues to lead the market, and most stock indices close higher. It is recommended to sell put options on the MO2511 contract with an execution price near 6600 when the index pulls back to collect premiums [2]. Treasury Bond - The MLF is renewed with an increased amount, and the overall trend of Treasury bond futures is volatile. It is recommended to operate within the range for the unilateral strategy and pay attention to quick entry and exit. For the basis spread strategy, the basis of the TL contract fluctuates at a high level, and one can appropriately participate in the basis narrowing strategy [2]. Precious Metals - For gold, maintain the idea of buying on dips or buying out - of - the - money call options. For silver, keep a low - buying strategy as its price fluctuates above $43 [2]. Black Steel - Steel exports support the black valuation, and steel prices continue to fluctuate. Try short - buying on pullbacks and narrow the spread between the January contract of hot - rolled coil and rebar [2]. Iron Ore - The decline in shipments, the increase in molten iron, and the replenishment demand support the high - level shock of iron ore prices. The 2601 contract of iron ore is regarded as volatile, with a reference range of 780 - 850 [2]. Coal - The coal prices in coal - producing areas are stable with a slight upward trend. It is recommended to short the coking coal 2601 contract at high prices, with a reference range of 1150 - 1250, and short the coke 2601 contract at high prices, with a reference range of 1650 - 1800 [2]. Energy and Chemical Crude Oil - The geopolitical risk premium drives the oil price up, but the expected recovery of supply in the Kurdish region limits the rebound height. It is recommended to adopt a unilateral band - trading strategy, with the WTI operating range at [60, 66], Brent at [64, 69], and SC at [471, 502] [2]. Other Chemicals - For various chemicals such as urea, PX, PTA, etc., different trading strategies are proposed according to their supply - demand situations, such as short - selling urea on rallies, and paying attention to the pressure levels for PX and PTA long positions [2]. Agricultural Products - For different agricultural products like soybeans, pigs, corn, etc., different trends and trading suggestions are given. For example, for sugar, conduct short - selling on rebounds; for cotton, short in the short term [2]. Special Commodities - For glass, due to news - driven factors, the glass futures market has risen sharply, and it is recommended to watch cautiously. For rubber, the impact of the typhoon is limited, and the rubber price has fallen slightly, so it is recommended to watch [2]. New Energy - For polysilicon, the market sentiment is repaired, and the futures market rebounds, so it is recommended to watch temporarily. For lithium carbonate, driven by the sector sentiment, the futures market strengthens slightly, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan [2].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the transition of China's economic model from an "investment-export" driven approach to a focus on domestic consumption, driven by the vast potential of its 1.4 billion population [1][4][6]. Group 1: Economic Transition - The shift in China's economic development goals is moving from GDP accumulation to enhancing quality of life, happiness, and security [4]. - The "new consumption" model encompasses various forms of consumption, including physical, service, digital, and emotional consumption, becoming a cornerstone for stable economic growth [3][4]. Group 2: Technological and Policy Drivers - The integration of new infrastructure such as mobile internet and logistics networks is bridging the consumption gap between urban and rural areas, promoting "consumption equality" [5]. - The government aims to establish a dual circulation economic model, enhancing domestic consumption as a key driver while facilitating urban-rural connectivity [7]. Group 3: Emerging Consumer Demographics - New consumer groups in rural areas, including "small-town youth," "silver-haired population," and "new farmers," are reshaping the consumption landscape [8]. Group 4: Emotional Capital in Consumption - Emotional capital, defined as identifiable and measurable cultural and social values, is crucial for enhancing county-level consumption [9]. - Emotional consumption can transform counties from value output points to value retention and creation hubs, fostering local economic growth [10]. Group 5: Consumption Types and Trends - Green and health-oriented consumption reflects a shift towards high-quality living, driven by consumer demand for safety and sustainability [13]. - Cultural and tourism experiences are becoming significant economic drivers, transforming local heritage into economic value through immersive experiences [14]. - The aging population is creating a demand for health and wellness services, establishing a new industry focused on elder care and social connection [15]. - Digital services are emerging as a new market, enhancing local living standards and providing access to urban resources [16]. Group 6: Strategic Framework for Development - A shift in development philosophy is necessary, prioritizing emotional consumption and creating a clear "emotional consumption map" for counties [18]. - Upgrading supply chains to foster emotional consumption market entities and creating distinctive emotional experiences are essential for enhancing local economic appeal [20]. - Improving infrastructure and regulatory environments will support the growth of emotional consumption, ensuring a safe and attractive market for residents and visitors [21]. - Innovative governance models are needed to foster a collaborative ecosystem for emotional consumption, encouraging community involvement and market innovation [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The recent market trading logic mainly focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies, with a short - term strengthening of the upward macro - drive. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies. For assets, the stock index is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; treasury bonds are expected to be volatile in the short - term, and cautious observation is advised; among commodity sectors, black commodities are expected to be volatile in the short - term, with cautious observation; non - ferrous metals are expected to rise significantly in the short - term, with cautious long positions; energy and chemical products are expected to rebound in a volatile manner, with cautious long positions; precious metals are expected to be strong and volatile at high levels, with cautious long positions [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - Overseas: The US Q2 GDP was significantly revised upwards, the initial jobless claims for the week ending September 20, 2025, were at a new low since the week of July 19, 2025, the US dollar index strengthened significantly, and global risk appetite continued to decline. - Domestic: China's August consumption, January - August investment, and industrial added - value growth were all lower than previous values and market expectations, and domestic demand continued to slow down. Policy support has been strengthened, and domestic risk appetite has increased significantly. The stock index is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, and cautious long positions are recommended; treasury bonds are expected to be volatile, and cautious observation is advised [2]. 3.2 Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot and futures markets of domestic steel continued a small - scale rebound on Thursday. The real - world demand continued to weaken, but there were differences among varieties. The supply remained at a high level, and the logic of squeezing steel mill profits may continue. The steel market is likely to fluctuate within a range in the short - term [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore continued to be strong on Thursday. The demand remained strong, and the supply was generally at a high level. The iron ore price should be treated with a range - bound thinking, but there is a risk of negative feedback after November [4][5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese declined slightly on Thursday, while the futures prices rebounded slightly. The downstream demand is expected to improve. The futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [6]. - **Soda Ash**: The main contract of soda ash fluctuated on Thursday. The price was affected by the downstream glass sector. In the short - term, there will be an increase in both supply and demand, but in the long - term, the supply contradiction will suppress the price [7]. - **Glass**: The main contract of glass fluctuated on Thursday. The supply remained stable, the demand improved marginally, and with positive policy sentiment, it is expected to be strong in the short - term [7]. 3.3 Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The LME copper price rose and then fell overnight. Although the production of the Grasberg copper mine was affected, the复产 schedule reduced market speculation expectations [8]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price rose on Thursday and then fluctuated. It is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short - term to wait for new drivers. The social inventory decreased significantly due to pre - holiday restocking by downstream enterprises [8]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. The short - term price is expected to be slightly stronger in a volatile manner, but the upside space is limited [9]. - **Tin**: The supply is tightened in the short - term, and the demand is weak. The inventory decreased significantly. The price is expected to be volatile in the short - term, with support from maintenance and peak - season expectations, but the upside space is under pressure [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract of lithium carbonate rose on Thursday. The supply and demand both increased, and the fundamentals improved marginally. The price is expected to fluctuate, and the upper - pressure range should be monitored [10]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon rose on Thursday. There is no obvious driving force, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [10]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon rose on Thursday. The spot prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, and battery cells increased. The policy expectation is still strong, and it is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short - term [11]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Tensions between Russia and NATO have intensified, and the supply risk has increased. Although the resumption of exports from the Kurdish region in northern Iraq provides some support, the long - term bearish expectation remains unchanged [12][13]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price rebounded following the crude oil price. The peak - season demand is over, and the surplus pressure remains. Attention should be paid to the extent of following the crude oil price increase [13]. - **PX**: The main contract fluctuated. The supply is still tight, but the polyester sector has declined recently, and it is expected to be weakly volatile with some support below [13]. - **PTA**: The market has expectations of joint production cuts by leading enterprises, but the basis strengthening is limited, and the demand in the peak season has fallen short. There is long - term downward pressure on the disk [14]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price remained low and volatile. The port inventory changed little, and the downstream demand was weak. There is no obvious driving force for the price to rise [14]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber price decreased slightly. The terminal orders increased seasonally but with limited amplitude. The subsequent upside space may be limited [14]. - **Methanol**: The domestic methanol market fluctuated narrowly. The supply is in surplus in the short - term, but there may be a turning point in supply and demand in October [15]. - **PP**: The market price recovered slightly. The supply is still loose, and it is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term, and the improvement of peak - season demand should be monitored [15][16]. - **LLDPE**: The LLDPE market price increased slightly. The supply increased, and the peak - season demand fell short of expectations. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [16]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea market was stable. The supply is sufficient, the demand support is weak, and the inventory is accumulating, so there is significant short - term pressure [17]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The CBOT soybean price rose overnight. The resumption of export tax in Argentina and the possible downgrade of US soybean crop ratings provided some support, but the high yield and weak export sales restricted the rebound [18]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The short - term supply - demand surplus situation in the domestic market remains unchanged. The low - valued cost of imported soybeans provides support [18]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil futures rose for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The supply - demand situation is stable. In the future, attention should be paid to the low inventory in the production area, the price - support sentiment dominated by policies, and the impact of US soybean oil - related biodiesel policies on the market [19]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The soybean oil market continues to have a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The rapeseed oil supply may shrink significantly in the short - term, and the high inventory will continue to decline, so the price is likely to rise [20].

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX 黄金期货涨 0.33%报 3780.5 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货涨 2.89%报 45.47 美元/盎司。 2. 国际油价窄幅震荡，美油主力合约收涨 0.35%，报 65.22 美元/桶；布伦特原 油主力合约涨 0.5%，报 68.8 美元/桶。 3. 伦敦基本金属涨跌参半，LME 期镍跌 1.15%报 15240 美元/吨，LME 期铜跌 0.59%报 10275.50 美元/吨，LME 期锌跌 0.53%报 2922.5 美元/吨，LME 期铅涨 0.48%报 2009 美元/吨，LME 期铝涨 0.47%报 2664 美元/吨，LME 期锡涨 0.20%报 34390 美元/吨。 4. 截至 2:20 收盘，美大豆涨 0.30%，美玉米涨 0.12%，美豆油涨 0.72%，美豆 粕跌 1.01%，美小 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rapid development and high-quality growth of Pingdu City, showcasing its effective project implementation, innovative industrial activities, and improvements in people's livelihoods. Group 1: Project Implementation - The Huinuo Changyuan high-end equipment production project in Pingdu has officially commenced operations, with a total investment of 1.2 billion yuan and an expected annual output value of 600 million yuan once fully operational [1] - Pingdu has optimized its business environment, leading to a 37.2% year-on-year increase in newly registered fixed asset investment projects, totaling 343 projects from January to August [2] - The city has streamlined project approval processes, reducing average verification time by 17 days, with some industrial projects completing joint acceptance in as little as 3 days [2] Group 2: Industrial Innovation - Pingdu hosted the 4th China (International) Eyelash Industry Expo, generating over 1.5 billion yuan in trade orders and attracting around 10,000 participants [3] - The city organized a supply-demand matching conference for the new energy vehicle parts industry, resulting in cooperation intentions from over 30 enterprises [3] - Pingdu has established a clear industrial planning strategy, focusing on emerging industries such as low-altitude economy and new energy materials, while enhancing traditional sectors like intelligent manufacturing [4][5] Group 3: Livelihood Improvements - The city has invested 16.7 billion yuan in 25 housing projects, benefiting approximately 5,000 households and transforming "relocation" into "settlement" [6] - In education, Pingdu is adding 2,700 new quality school places and has renovated facilities in 77 schools to meet community demands [7] - The healthcare system is being enhanced through the integration of resources, aiming to create a comprehensive medical service network across the region [8]

Core Insights - The 2025 BRICS Special Economic Zone Dialogue held in Hangzhou aims to enhance cooperation among BRICS nations in digital trade and industrial collaboration [1][2] - Two key reports were released: the "2025 BRICS Electronic Bill of Lading Report" and the "2025 BRICS Special Economic Zone Economic and Trade Cooperation Development Report," which outline a roadmap for cooperation [1][2] Group 1: Reports and Findings - The "2025 BRICS Special Economic Zone Economic and Trade Cooperation Development Report" defines the core concepts of BRICS Special Economic Zones, including specific regional scope, policy arrangements, and development goals [1] - The report systematically reviews the types and policy trends of special economic zones across BRICS countries, highlighting measures such as relaxed foreign investment access and tax incentives [1] - It emphasizes the importance of digital transformation in manufacturing and green low-carbon development as key industrial directions [1] Group 2: Focus Areas and Cooperation Models - The report focuses on three key areas: artificial intelligence, green low-carbon initiatives, and agriculture, proposing collaborative models based on policy synergy, technology implementation, and industry-academia-research interaction [2] - It identifies four replicable cooperation models: park co-construction, industrial collaboration, joint innovation, and capacity building [2] - The report presents a "China solution" centered on cross-border e-commerce, overseas economic and trade cooperation zones, integrated logistics, cross-border finance, and standardized interoperability [2] Group 3: Implementation and Future Actions - Following the report's release, multiple cooperation initiatives were launched, including the signing of four BRICS cooperation projects in education, industrial funds, production line financing, and digital economy alliances [2] - Initiatives such as the "Artificial Intelligence Industry Cooperation and Development Hangzhou Initiative" and the "International Cooperation Service Alliance for Artificial Intelligence" were also introduced, involving over ten companies including Alibaba Cloud [2] - The dialogue covered 13 BRICS countries, with participation from over 70 foreign dignitaries and more than 120 business representatives, indicating a strong commitment to collaborative development [2]

Group 1 - The core idea of the article is to promote a festive atmosphere in Tanzhou Town through various cultural and industrial-themed activities, including the Xianshui Song Exchange Performance, Guava Festival, and Puffer Fish Festival, aiming for community-wide participation during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival celebrations [1][3][5] Group 2 - The Tanzhou Town government is organizing a series of events for the 2025 "Chinese Farmers' Harvest Festival" and the "Beautiful Anfu Stream • Prosperous Guava" event, highlighting local agricultural products [3] - A meeting was held to coordinate the preparations for the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival activities, attended by key officials from the Tanzhou Town government [7] - Safety measures are emphasized, including strict adherence to reporting procedures for events, controlling firework displays, and ensuring food safety by prohibiting the sale of expired or spoiled products [9][12] - Health departments are implementing a "3+1" disinfection mechanism to maintain public health safety in crowded areas [10] - There is a focus on promoting local特色资源, such as drones, puffer fish, and guava, to create a brand image of "safe eating, safe purchasing, and safe traveling" [11] - Collaboration among various industry departments is essential for effective event execution, with an emphasis on emergency response and safety checks [12] - Fire safety drills are to be conducted regularly to ensure readiness and effective response in case of emergencies [13]

Economic Growth Outlook - Chilean banks have a conservative outlook for economic growth in 2026, predicting GDP growth rates between 2% and 2.5% [1] - The main challenge for 2026 is the recovery of employment, with high informal employment rates and significant disparities in participation among specific groups [1] Industrial Performance - The president of the Chilean Manufacturing Association (SOFOFA) believes industrial performance in 2026 may be uneven due to a lack of clear rules, legal certainty, and investment incentives [1] - The construction industry is expected to recover, but the real estate sector lags behind infrastructure projects driven by large private mining and energy initiatives [1] Employment and Unemployment - The president of the Chilean Banking and Financial Institutions Association (ABIF) forecasts an unemployment rate of 8.7% for 2026, with bank performance similar to 2025 [1] - Total bank loans are expected to grow only by 2%-3%, constrained by low investment and a weak labor market affecting consumer loans [1] Retail and Wholesale Trade - The president of the National Chamber of Commerce, Services, and Tourism (CNC) anticipates retail sales growth of 4.5% to 5.5% in 2025, with limited expansion in 2026 [1] - Wholesale trade may benefit from investment dynamics and inventory replenishment, while retail growth could slow down [1] Mining Sector - The president of the National Mining Association (SONAMI) expects copper production to stagnate at around 5.4 million tons per year, with economic contributions from operational continuity rather than physical expansion [1] - Challenges include declining ore grades, increased mining depth, capacity limitations, and regulatory delays [1] Agricultural Sector - The president of the National Agricultural Association (SNA) notes that agricultural growth has been 3.5 times that of the overall economy in the past two years [1] - Cherry production will remain crucial for the 2025-2026 season, with challenges in optimizing irrigation infrastructure and improving rural security [1]

Core Points - The government of the Udmurt Republic in Russia is keen to deepen cooperation with China across various sectors, including trade and culture [1] - The Udmurt Republic has developed industries such as machinery, metallurgy, chemical, and oil, which are competitive in the market [1] - Agriculture is also a significant pillar of the Udmurt Republic's economy, and there is a desire to enhance economic and investment collaboration with Chinese partners [1] - Cultural exchanges between the Udmurt Republic and China are frequent, and the local government is implementing measures to attract more Chinese tourists [1]

Group 1 - The company, Zhongxing Junye, announced on September 25 that its fifth board meeting was held via communication, where it reviewed the proposal for the 2025 stock option incentive plan [1] - The A-share market reached a total market value of over 116 trillion yuan on the anniversary of the "9.24" event, indicating significant changes in the Chinese capital market [1]