Group 1: Spot Market Data - Newman powder's latest price is 778, with a daily change of 13 and a weekly change of -15, and its import profit is -21.92 [1] - PB powder's latest price is 781, with a daily change of 11 and a weekly change of -17, and its import profit is -2.23 [1] - Mac powder's latest price is 767, with a daily change of 11 and a weekly change of -11, and its import profit is 3.20 [1] - Jimbobara's latest price is 754, with a daily change of 10 and a weekly change of -14, and its import profit is 7.77 [1] - Mainstream mixed powder's latest price is 710, with a daily change of 8 and a weekly change of -18, and its import profit is 2.75 [1] - Super special powder's latest price is 657, with a daily change of 10 and a weekly change of -16, and its import profit is -5.92 [1] - Carajás powder's latest price is 883, with a daily change of 17 and a weekly change of -15, and its import profit is -15.22 [1] - Brazilian blended ore's latest price is 803, with a daily change of 11 and a weekly change of -26, and its import profit is -11.45 [1] - Brazilian coarse IOC6's latest price is 771, with a daily change of 11 and a weekly change of -17 [1] - Brazilian coarse SSFG's latest price is 776, with a daily change of 11 and a weekly change of -17 [1] - Ukrainian fine powder's latest price is 867, with a daily change of 9 and a weekly change of -18 [1] - 61% Indian powder's latest price is 743, with a daily change of 10 and a weekly change of -14 [1] - Karara fine powder's latest price is 865, with a daily change of 10 and a weekly change of -20 [1] - Roy Hill powder's latest price is 751, with a daily change of 11 and a weekly change of -17, and its import profit is 2.66 [1] - KUMBA powder's latest price is 841, with a daily change of 11 and a weekly change of -17 [1] - 57% Indian powder's latest price is 602, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of -26 [1] - Atlas powder's latest price is 705, with a daily change of 8 and a weekly change of -18 [1] - Tangshan iron concentrate powder's latest price is 929, with a daily change of 6 and a weekly change of -3 [1] Group 2: Futures Market Data - i2601's latest price is 770.5, with a daily change of 13.5 and a weekly change of -23.0, and its monthly spread is 27.5 [1] - i2605's latest price is 749.0, with a daily change of 11.0 and a weekly change of -21.5, and its monthly spread is 21.5 [1] - i2509's latest price is 798.0, with a daily change of 12.0 and a weekly change of -25.0, and its monthly spread is -49.0 [1] - FE01's latest price is 99.22, with a daily change of -2.31 and a weekly change of -2.43, and its monthly spread is 1.57 [1] - FE05's latest price is 97.04, with a daily change of -2.15 and a weekly change of -2.43, and its monthly spread is 2.18 [1] - FE09's latest price is 100.79, with a daily change of -2.50 and a weekly change of -2.77, and its monthly spread is -3.75 [1]

Report Information - Report Title: Iron Ore Daily Report - Report Date: July 29, 2025 - Report Author: Commodity Research Institute, Black Research and Development Report [1][2] Core Data Futures Prices - DCE01: 770.5, up 13.5 from yesterday; DCE05: 749.0, up 11.0; DCE09: 798.0, up 12.0 [3] - I01 - I05: 21.5, up 2.5; I05 - I09: -49.0, down 1.0; I09 - I01: 27.5, down 1.5 [3] Spot Prices - PB powder: 770, down 12 from the day before yesterday; Newman powder: 766, down 11; Mac powder: 756, down 10 [3] - The optimal deliverable is PB powder, with a standard - converted price of 811, 01 - factory - warehouse basis of 46, 05 - factory - warehouse basis of 65, and 09 - factory - warehouse basis of 17 [3] Price Spreads - Spot variety spreads: e.g., Carajás fines - PB powder: 99, down 1; Newman powder - Jinbuba powder: 23, down 1 [3] - Import profits: e.g., Carajás fines: -4, up 4; Newman powder: 10, up 9 [3] Indexes - Platts 62% iron ore price: 100.1, down 2.5; Platts 65% iron ore price: 114.6, down 2.2; Platts 58% iron ore price: 87.4, down 2.1 [3] - Inner - outer market US - dollar spreads: e.g., SGX main - DCE01: 8.8, down 0.6; SGX main - DCE05: 11.2, down 0.8; SGX main - DCE09: 5.2, down 0.4 [3] Charts - The report includes multiple charts showing data such as the basis of the optimal deliverable against different contracts, cross - period arbitrage spreads, import profits of different iron ore varieties, price spreads between different iron ore products, and inner - outer market US - dollar spreads [8][9][10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View The report focuses on the production and sales of the world's four major iron ore mines in the second quarter of 2025, presenting historical production and sales data of VALE, Rio Tinto, BHP, and FMG through multiple charts. 3. Summary by Company VALE - Charts show production and sales statistics, including overall production and sales, sales of different products (powder and pellets), production of the S11D mining area, and regional production proportion [6][11][12]. Rio Tinto - Charts display production and sales data, production and sales of PB powder, and production and sales proportions of different products [15][16][18]. BHP - Charts present production and sales data and production proportions of different mining areas [21][22]. FMG - Charts show production and sales data and the production of the Iron Bridge project [25][29].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Rebar**: The main contract price rebounded from the bottom, with a daily increase of 1.98%. Although the steel market sentiment improved due to production - restriction disturbances, the fundamentals of rebar did not improve substantially under the situation of both supply and demand increasing. The upward driving force is questionable, but the low - inventory situation means the current contradictions are not significant. It is expected that the rebar price will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to domestic and foreign macro - policies [4]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price strengthened again, with a daily increase of 2.01%. The supply and demand of hot - rolled coils both weakened, the fundamentals deteriorated slightly, and the inventory increased slightly. However, the overall contradictions are not large, and the cost has increased significantly. It is expected that the hot - rolled coil price will maintain a high - level oscillating operation. Attention should be paid to overseas risks [4]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price oscillated upward, with a daily increase of 0.63%. The demand for iron ore has good resilience, which supports the ore price. However, the supply is expected to increase, the fundamentals of the iron ore market will change, and the market sentiment is weakening. It is expected that the iron ore price will continue to adjust in a high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **CMI Index**: In July 2025, the CMI index was 100.73, a year - on - year increase of 5.54% and a month - on - month decrease of 4.20%. The domestic construction machinery market continued to improve year - on - year, but the sales in the terminal market in July were slightly weaker than in June. The construction situation improved, and the regional markets were further differentiated [6]. - **Three Major White Goods Production Scheduling**: In August 2025, the total production scheduling of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines was 26.97 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 4.9%. Among them, the production scheduling of household air conditioners decreased by 2.8%, refrigerators by 9.5%, and washing machines by 3.0% compared with the actual production in the same period last year [7]. - **Brazilian Investment in Iron Ore Project**: Brazil's J&F Group plans to invest more than $700 million in its iron ore subsidiary LHG Mining to expand production capacity, improve the logistics system, and promote a greener supply layout of steel raw materials. The annual production capacity of the Urucum mine is planned to increase from 12 million tons to 25 million tons [8]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Steel Products**: The spot prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and Tangshan billet are provided, along with price changes. For example, the national average price of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) is 3,437 yuan, with a change of 16 yuan; the national average price of hot - rolled coil (Shanghai, 4.75mm) is 3,504 yuan, with a change of 24 yuan [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The prices of 61.5% PB powder, Tangshan iron concentrate, and relevant indices such as the SGX swap and the Platts index are presented, along with their price changes. For instance, the price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports is 780 yuan, with a change of 10 yuan [9]. 3.3 Futures Market - **Rebar**: The closing price of the rebar active contract is 3,347 yuan, with a daily increase of 1.98%. The trading volume is 2,711,612 lots, a decrease of 703,101 lots, and the open interest is 2,175,237 lots, an increase of 239,356 lots [13]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil active contract is 3,503 yuan, with a daily increase of 2.01%. The trading volume is 1,006,596 lots, a decrease of 249,080 lots, and the open interest is 1,612,699 lots, an increase of 131,532 lots [13]. - **Iron Ore**: The closing price of the iron ore active contract is 798.0 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.63%. The trading volume is 330,523 lots, a decrease of 200,933 lots, and the open interest is 482,200 lots, a decrease of 7,237 lots [13]. 3.4 Related Charts - **Steel Inventory**: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mills + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil, providing historical data from 2021 - 2025 [16][18][22][23]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: Charts display the inventory of 45 ports in China, 247 steel mills, and domestic mine iron concentrate, including inventory changes and seasonal data [21][25][26][28]. - **Steel Mill Production**: Charts present the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, and the profit and loss situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills [29][31][32][34]. 3.5后市研判 - **Rebar**: The supply of rebar has increased slightly, and the demand has improved. However, the fundamentals have not improved substantially, and the upward driving force is questionable. It is expected to continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to macro - policies [37]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: The supply and demand of hot - rolled coil have both weakened. The fundamentals have deteriorated slightly, and the inventory has increased slightly. It is expected to maintain a high - level oscillating operation, and attention should be paid to overseas risks [38]. - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore has good resilience, but the supply is expected to increase. The fundamentals of the iron ore market will change, and it is expected to continue to adjust in a high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [39].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore price is expected to continue the high - level oscillatory adjustment, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [2] - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term trend is weakly oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory, and the intraday is strongly oscillatory. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA5 line [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term view is weakly oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory, and the intraday is strongly oscillatory. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, with the core logic being that the demand has good resilience and the ore price oscillates at a high level [1] Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand of iron ore have changed. During the off - season, steel mill production is stable, and the terminal consumption of ore has slightly declined from a high level. Steel mills' profitability is good, and the demand for ore has resilience, supporting the ore price. The arrival at domestic ports has been decreasing, but the reduction space is limited. Overseas miners' shipments are increasing, and they are more active in shipping at high prices. Coupled with the recovery of domestic ore production, the supply of ore is expected to increase. The demand resilience can support the ore price, but the expected increase in supply, the changing fundamentals of the ore market, and the weakening market sentiment will lead to the high - level oscillatory adjustment of the ore price [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has cooled significantly, and the prices of finished products have started to correct. The cost side has collapsed notably. Export volume has dropped significantly this week due to the recent rapid price increase [2]. - The fundamentals of rebar and hot - rolled coils are weak. Rebar has seen increased speculative demand and inventory reduction, while hot - rolled coils have experienced a slight decline in demand and inventory accumulation. Their inventories are at a five - year low. The market may return to real - world trading, and future market trends depend on policy signals, terminal demand recovery, and cost support [2]. - For iron ore, short - term prices may adjust. The market should focus on the inflection point of sentiment and pay attention to the policies of the important meeting in July [5]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, short - term price fluctuations are large, and speculative positions are advised to wait and see. In the long - term, they face the risk of weakening demand. Enterprises are advised to seize hedging opportunities while controlling margin safety [8][9]. - For industrial silicon, prices are expected to enter a high - volatility and wide - range oscillation phase, and it is recommended to wait and see. The industry still faces over - supply and insufficient demand [11]. - For glass and soda ash, prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term. In the long - term, glass prices depend on real estate policies and supply - side adjustments, while soda ash has fundamental supply - demand contradictions, and short - term waiting and long - term short - selling opportunities are recommended [14][15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Rebar**: The closing price of the main rebar contract was 3248 yuan/ton, down 108 yuan/ton (-3.21%) from the previous trading day. Registered warehouse receipts decreased by 3587 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 62,771 lots. In the spot market, prices in Tianjin and Shanghai decreased [1]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The closing price of the main hot - rolled coil contract was 3397 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton (-3.13%). Registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the main contract positions decreased by 73,396 lots. In the spot market, prices in Lecong and Shanghai decreased [1]. Iron Ore - The main iron ore contract (I2509) closed at 786.00 yuan/ton, with a change of -2.06% (-16.50), and positions decreased by 39,554 lots to 489,400 lots. The weighted position was 979,700 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 770 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 32.02 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.91% [4]. - Overseas iron ore shipments continued to rise, with an increase in Australian shipments led by FMG, a slight decline in Brazilian shipments, and non - mainstream shipments at a low level. Daily molten iron production was 242.23 tons, slightly down. Port and steel mill inventories increased slightly [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - On July 28, the main manganese silicon contract (SM509) closed down 6.02% at 6028 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Tianjin was 5950 yuan/ton, with a discount to the futures price. The main ferrosilicon contract (SF509) closed down 5.29% at 5840 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Tianjin was 5850 yuan/ton, with a premium to the futures price [7][8]. - In the short - term, the "anti - involution" and supply - side reform expectations drove up prices, but after the sharp rise of coking coal, prices may have reached an inflection point. In the long - term, they face weakening demand [8][9]. Industrial Silicon - On July 28, the main industrial silicon contract (SI2509) closed down 8.33% at 8915 yuan/ton. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China decreased, with the 553 having a premium and the 421 having a discount to the futures price [11]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price in Shahe decreased by 9 yuan, and in Central China increased by 40 yuan. The total inventory of national float glass enterprises decreased by 4.69% month - on - month. The market may oscillate in the short - term and follow macro - sentiment in the long - term [14]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price decreased by 120 yuan. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers decreased by 4.34%. Supply decreased due to increased maintenance, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term with fundamental contradictions in the long - term [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - After the concentrated release of positive sentiment last week, the market cooled down this week. Attention should be paid to tariff disturbances around August 1st and the messages released by the Politburo meeting. The five major steel products had a slight reduction in inventory. Rebar had both increased production and demand, and the apparent demand had a significant increase supported by the recovery of speculative demand, leading to a reduction in total inventory again. The decline in the apparent demand of hot-rolled coils was greater than the reduction in production, and the total inventory increased slightly, but the overall inventory accumulation was limited. Currently, the inventory contradiction of finished products was not prominent, and the core of off-season trading remained focused on macro - policy expectations. After the previous concentrated release of benefits, steel prices faced pressure at high levels, and with the pressure decline of coking coal at the raw material end, the cost decreased, and the black series was under pressure, showing a short - term weak and volatile operation [3]. - For iron ore, the supply from Australia and Brazil had a phased recovery, and the arrival volume was still in a downward process. The daily output of hot metal decreased slightly but was still at a high level year - on - year, and the port clearance volume decreased slightly. The port inventory was stable without obvious inventory accumulation pressure. In the medium term, there was still an expectation of an increase in overseas shipments of iron ore in the second half of the year. After the digestion of the macro - positive sentiment last week, iron ore faced pressure at high levels and the pressure of a decline this week [4]. - For coking coal and coke, the domestic mine production was stable. With the acceleration of market transactions, the inventory pressure was relieved. Coking enterprises were in a loss state due to cost pressure, and some low - inventory coking enterprises limited production to support prices. The increase in coke prices had been launched for four rounds. After multiple limit - up of coking coal, the Dalian Commodity Exchange adjusted the trading limit of coking coal futures, and short - term prices faced the pressure of a decline [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - Macro - sentiment recovery and rising raw material costs led to steel prices reaching new highs. The prices of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coking coal, and coke all increased. The positions of the top 20 long and short holders in futures contracts decreased. The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils showed different changes, and the price differences also changed. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils increased slightly. The market trading core was concentrated on macro - policy expectations and raw material price fluctuations [9]. 3.2 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Production**: National rebar weekly output was 211.96 tons (up 1.39% month - on - month, down 2.18% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil weekly output was 317.49 tons (down 1.14% month - on - month, down 3.27% year - on - year). Rebar blast furnace output increased, and electric furnace output decreased [15][17]. - **Operating Rate**: The national blast furnace operating rate was 83.46% (unchanged month - on - month, up 1.00% year - on - year), and the electric furnace operating rate was 72.02% (up 10.66% month - on - month, up 10.36% year - on - year) [27]. - **Profit**: Rebar profit was + 282 yuan/ton (up 64.91% week - on - week, up 362 yuan/ton year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil profit was + 146 yuan/ton (up 78.77% week - on - week, up 307 yuan/ton year - on - year) [31]. - **Demand**: Rebar apparent consumption was 216.58 tons (up 5.05% month - on - month, up 0.45% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption was 315.24 tons (down 2.64% month - on - month, down 1.86% year - on - year) [35][37]. - **Inventory**: Rebar total inventory was 538.64 tons (down 0.85% month - on - month, down 29.15% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil total inventory was 345.16 tons (up 0.66% month - on - month, down 19.76% year - on - year) [41][46]. - **Downstream**: In the real estate sector, the weekly commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 4.24% month - on - month and decreased by 16.60% year - on - year. The weekly land transaction area in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 14.31% month - on - month and decreased by 45.13% year - on - year. In the automotive sector, in June 2025, automobile production and sales were 2.794 million and 2.904 million respectively, up 5.5% and 8.1% month - on - month, and up 11.4% and 13.8% year - on - year [49][52]. 3.3 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The iron ore price index was 104 (up 4.16% month - on - month, up 1.75% year - on - year). The shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 2677.8 tons (up 8.02% month - on - month, up 7.65% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2240.5 tons (down 5.51% month - on - month, up 22.97% year - on - year) [59]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal was 242.33 tons (down 0.21 tons month - on - month, up 2.62 tons year - on - year), the port clearance volume at 45 ports was 315.15 tons (down 2.35% month - on - month, up 0.45% year - on - year), and the inventory - to - sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises was 29.51 days (up 0.75% month - on - month, down 5.84% year - on - year) [64]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports was 13790.38 tons (up 0.04% month - on - month, down 8.61% year - on - year), the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8885.22 tons (up 0.71% month - on - month, down 3.47% year - on - year), and the average available days of iron ore for 114 steel enterprises was 23.51 days (up 2.48% month - on - month, up 13.36% year - on - year) [70]. 3.4 Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of coking coal mines was 86.9% (up 0.96% month - on - month, down 4.37% year - on - year), the operating rate of coal washing plants was 62.31% (down 0.86% month - on - month, down 9.14% year - on - year), and the daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 154400 tons (up 21.57% month - on - month, down 2.72% year - on - year) [76]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was - 54 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan/ton month - on - month, down 97 yuan/ton year - on - year), the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 73.45% (up 0.60% month - on - month, down 0.90% year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate of steel mill coke was 86.97% [84]. - **Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises was 841.27 tons (up 6.46% month - on - month, up 11.57% year - on - year), the steel mill coking coal inventory was 799.34 tons (up 1.06% month - on - month, up 7.10% year - on - year), and the coking coal port inventory was 292.34 tons (down 9.07% month - on - month, up 5.73% year - on - year). The coke inventory of independent coking enterprises was 50.12 tons (down 9.78% month - on - month, up 42.35% year - on - year), the steel mill coke inventory was 639.98 tons (up 0.15% month - on - month, up 17.86% year - on - year), and the coke port inventory was 198.13 tons (down 0.49% month - on - month, up 0.20% year - on - year) [90][96]. - **Spot Price**: Coke started the fourth round of price increases [97]. 3.5 Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils both contracted, and the 10 - 01 spread of rebar and hot - rolled coils fluctuated narrowly. The 9 - 1 spread of iron ore and the coil - to - rebar spread both decreased slightly [104][110].

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Views - **Rebar**: The main contract price of rebar declined weakly with a daily drop of 2.05%, with increasing volume and decreasing positions. In the current situation of both supply and demand increasing, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved substantially. Under the dominance of industrial logic, steel prices are still prone to pressure. The relatively positive factor is that the real - world contradictions are not significant under the low - inventory situation. It is expected that the rebar price will shift to a volatile downward trend, and domestic policies should be monitored [4]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The main contract price of hot - rolled coil weakened and declined, recording a daily drop of 2.30%, with increasing volume and decreasing positions. Currently, both supply and demand of hot - rolled coils have weakened, the fundamentals have deteriorated slightly, inventory has increased slightly, but overall contradictions are not significant, and costs have risen significantly. It is expected that the hot - rolled coil price will maintain a high - level volatile operation, and overseas risks should be monitored [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract price of iron ore continued to decline, with a daily drop of 1.75%, and both volume and positions decreased. Currently, the optimistic sentiment has weakened, and the over - valued ore price is oscillating downward. The relatively positive factor is that the fundamentals of iron ore are still acceptable under the current situation of weak supply and strong demand, and the downward space is limited. Under the dominance of industrial logic, it is expected that the ore price will continue the high - level adjustment trend, and the performance of finished products should be monitored [4]. 3) Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - **Industrial Profits**: In June, the year - on - year decline in the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size narrowed compared with May. The new kinetic energy industries represented by the equipment industry had relatively fast profit growth. The operating income continued to grow, and the decline in enterprise profits narrowed. In June, the operating income of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 1.0% year - on - year, with the same growth rate as in May. The total profit reached 715.58 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 4.3%, and the decline narrowed by 4.8 percentage points compared with May. From January to June, the operating income increased by 2.5%, and the profit decreased by 1.8% [6]. - **Transportation Investment**: In the first half of this year, China completed transportation fixed - asset investment of 1.6474 trillion yuan. Investment in railways, highways, waterways, and civil aviation was 355.9 billion yuan, 1.1291 trillion yuan, 109.3 billion yuan, and 53.1 billion yuan respectively [7]. - **Anglo American's Iron Ore Production and Sales**: In the second quarter of 2025, Anglo American's iron ore production was 15.94 million tons, a 3% increase from the previous quarter and a 2% increase year - on - year. The production in the first half of the year was 31.38 million tons, a 2% year - on - year increase. The sales volume in the second quarter was 16.41 million tons, a 13% increase from the previous quarter and a 1% decrease year - on - year. The sales volume in the first half of the year was 30.97 million tons, a 5% year - on - year increase. The annual production target remains at 57 - 61 million tons, and the company has completed 55% of the lower - limit target in the first half of the year. The annual unit cash cost target remains at $36 per ton [8]. Spot Market - **Steel Products**: The spot prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and Tangshan billet all decreased. The national average price of rebar dropped by 41 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coil dropped by 34 yuan/ton [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports decreased by 14 yuan/ton, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate decreased by 5 yuan/ton [9]. Futures Market - **Rebar**: The closing price of the main rebar contract was 3,248 yuan/ton, a 2.05% decline, with a trading volume of 3,414,713 lots and a decrease in positions of 62,771 lots [11]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The closing price of the main hot - rolled coil contract was 3,397 yuan/ton, a 2.30% decline, with a trading volume of 1,255,676 lots and a decrease in positions of 73,396 lots [11]. - **Iron Ore**: The closing price of the main iron ore contract was 786.0 yuan/ton, a 1.75% decline, with a trading volume of 531,456 lots and a decrease in positions of 39,554 lots [11]. Related Charts - **Steel Inventory**: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil, as well as the inventory of iron ore in 45 ports, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines [13][18]. - **Steel Mill Production**: Charts present the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, profitability of 247 sample steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit and loss situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills [27][29][32]. 后市研判 - **Rebar**: Supply has increased slightly, and demand has improved, but both are still at low levels in recent years. The fundamentals have not improved substantially, and it is expected that the price will shift to a volatile downward trend [35]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both supply and demand have weakened, the fundamentals have deteriorated slightly, inventory has increased slightly, and it is expected that the price will maintain a high - level volatile operation [36]. - **Iron Ore**: The demand is still resilient, but the supply pattern is changing. The over - valued ore price is oscillating downward, and it is expected to continue the high - level adjustment trend [37].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global iron ore supply is expected to expand with the upcoming production of Simandou Iron Ore in Africa, while emerging economies such as India will drive demand growth. The iron ore price is projected to fluctuate within a reasonable range of $80 - $100 per ton in the next 3 - 5 years under normal circumstances [66]. Summary by Related Catalogs I. Iron Ore Production 1.1 Global Iron Ore Production - Since 2000, global iron ore production increased significantly before 2014 and has remained stable at around 2 billion tons per year since 2015. In 2024, global iron ore production was 2.33 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%. The compound annual growth rate from 2000 to 2024 was 3.6% [11]. 1.2 China's Iron Ore Production - From 2000 - 2013, China's iron ore production increased steadily due to the expansion of small and medium - sized mines. However, since 2014, production has declined due to environmental protection, safety inspections, and competition from imported ores. In 2024, China's iron ore concentrate production was 284 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.5%. The compound annual growth rate from 2000 to 2024 was 3%. The main production areas are North, Northeast, East, and Southwest China, with North China being the largest, accounting for 34.1% [12][15]. II. Iron Ore Trade 2.1 Global Iron Ore Trade - Before 2015, global iron ore trade volume increased rapidly, and has since remained stable at a high level. In 2023, global iron ore exports reached 1.711 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%. Australia and Brazil are the two major exporters, accounting for 76.3% of global exports. In the same year, global iron ore imports reached 1.638 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%, with China being the largest importer, accounting for 72% [17][22]. 2.2 China's Iron Ore Trade - Since the 21st century, China has become the world's largest iron ore importer, mainly importing from Australia and Brazil. In 2024, China's iron ore imports reached 1.237 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%. The compound annual growth rate from 2010 to 2024 was about 5% [26][27]. III. Iron Ore Consumption 3.1 Global Iron Ore Consumption - Global iron ore consumption has been growing steadily in the past 15 years. China, India, and Japan are the top three consumers, accounting for 58.9%, 10.3%, and 4.4% of global consumption in 2023 respectively. From 2010 to 2024, global iron ore apparent consumption increased from 1.958 billion tons to 2.437 billion tons, with a compound annual growth rate of 1.59% [31][33]. 3.2 China's Iron Ore Consumption - Affected by the domestic economic cycle, China's iron ore consumption increased before 2015 and has remained stable at a high level since then. In 2024, China's iron ore apparent consumption was 1.473 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.6%. The compound annual growth rate from 2010 to 2024 was 3.15%. China's iron ore demand is highly dependent on imports, with an import - to - consumption ratio of 86% in 2023. The most demanded iron ore type is sinter ore, followed by pellet ore and lump ore [37][38][43]. IV. China's Iron Ore Industry Competition - From 2003 - 2017, small and medium - sized iron ore producers expanded rapidly. After 2017, due to mine consolidation, many small mines exited the market, and the market share of large key enterprises increased from 18% in 2010 to 39% in 2023 [47]. V. Global Iron Ore Production Cost - Global iron ore production costs vary significantly among different mines. The top four global iron ore producers (Vale, BHP, Rio Tinto, and FMG) have low production costs and high iron grades. China's iron ore generally has low iron content and variable production costs ranging from 300 - 900 yuan per ton. Iron ore price fluctuations can adjust global supply. When the price is between $80 - $100 per ton, the global shipping volume is about 137 million tons [50][51]. VI. Steel Industry Overview 6.1 Steel Production - Since the 21st century, global pig iron and crude steel production have grown rapidly, with the growth rate slowing down after 2015. In 2024, global pig iron and crude steel production were 1.421 billion tons and 1.934 billion tons respectively. China is the world's largest steel producer, with pig iron and crude steel production of 893 million tons and 1.099 billion tons respectively in 2024, accounting for 62.9% and 56.8% of the global total. The main production areas in China are Hebei, Jiangsu, and Shandong provinces [53]. 6.2 Steel Consumption - In 2024, global crude steel consumption was 1.938 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. China's crude steel consumption was 989 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%, accounting for 51.03% of the global total. Consumption outside China was 947 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. Since the implementation of the "Three Red Lines" policy in the real estate sector in 2021, China's steel consumption structure has changed significantly, with a sharp decline in real - estate steel demand and an increase in export and manufacturing demand [61]. VII. Iron Ore Price Performance - Iron ore prices fluctuate with supply and demand. After the 2008 global financial crisis, prices rose rapidly due to strong demand from emerging economies and insufficient global supply. From 2011 - 2015, prices fell due to over - supply and weakening Chinese demand. After 2016, prices were volatile at a low level due to steel industry reforms. After the Vale dam collapse and post - COVID - 19 recovery, prices reached a record high. Since 2021, prices have been under pressure due to China's crude steel production cuts and real - estate policies. In 2025, the supply - demand situation is slightly loose, and the price is currently fluctuating around $100 per ton [65].

研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | I 主力合约收盘价（元/吨） | 786.00 | -16.50↓ I 主力合约持仓量(手) | 489,437 | -39554↓ | | | I 9-1合约价差（元/吨） | 29 | -1.00↓ I 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -25799 | -636↓ | | | I 大商所仓单（手） | 3,400.00 | 0.00 | | | | | 新加坡铁矿石主力合约截止15：00报价(美元/吨) | 100.85 | -2.44↓ | | | | 现货市场 | 青岛港61.5%PB粉矿 (元/干吨) | 843 | -4↓ 青岛港60.8%麦克粉矿 (元/干吨) | 826 | -5↓ | | | 京唐港56.5%超特粉矿 (元/干吨) | 718 | -4↓ I 主力合约基差 (麦克粉干吨-主力合约) | 40 | +11↑ ...