编者按7月30日召开的中共中央政治局会议研判了当前经济形势，部署了下半年经济工作。上半年中国经济顶住压力，实现了5.3%的平稳增长。面对外部 环境复杂多变、内部风险挑战增多的局面，下半年经济形势和政策走向备受瞩目。对此，围绕财政收入、固定资产投资、产业经济、对外开放、创新动 能、地区经济六个维度，中国经济时报邀请国家高端智库等权威机构专家，研判上半年经济形势，展望下半年政策走向。 智观年中经济形势 核心观点： 下一步，要进一步做好"两重"建设和"两新"工作，用好新型政策性金融工具，更好发挥政府投资带动作用，加快推进传统产业改造升级，加 快培育和壮大新质生产力，聚焦提高投资效益精准发力，多方面拓展有效投资空间，充分激发民间投资活力，持续发挥投资对优化供给结构的关键作用。 ■杨萍 杜月 今年以来，各地区各部门深入贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署，统筹用好中央预算内投资、超长期特别国债、地方政府专项债等政策工具，加快推 进"两重"建设和"两新"工作，聚焦关键领域和薄弱环节积极扩大有效投资，推动固定资产投资平稳增长。从全年看，外部环境仍然复杂严峻、具有不确定 性。下一步，要深入贯彻落实4月25日中共中央政治局会议精神， ...

国家统计局数据显示，7月份，受制造业进入传统生产淡季，部分地区高温、暴雨洪涝灾害等因素影 响，PMI降至49.3%，制造业景气水平较上月回落。从重点行业看，装备制造业和高技术制造业PMI分 别为50.3%和50.6%，均持续高于临界点，高端装备制造业保持扩张；消费品行业PMI为49.5%，比上月 下降0.9个百分点；高耗能行业PMI为48.0%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，景气度有所改善。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The industrial and information technology sectors in China are experiencing steady growth and transformation, with a focus on high-quality development, innovation, and green transformation, supported by various government policies and initiatives [1][2][3]. Group 1: Industrial Economic Performance - In the first half of the year, the industrial economy showed resilience, with the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increasing by 6.4% year-on-year, and manufacturing investment growing by 7.5% [2][3]. - The contribution of key industries such as electrical machinery, automobiles, electronics, and chemicals to industrial growth has increased, with all 31 provinces reporting year-on-year growth in industrial added value [2][3]. - High-tech manufacturing added value grew by 9.5%, contributing 23.3% to the overall industrial growth, while digital product manufacturing increased by 9.9%, outperforming the overall industrial average [7][8]. Group 2: Policy Support and Future Initiatives - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) plans to implement new growth stabilization plans for key industries such as steel, non-ferrous metals, and petrochemicals, focusing on structural adjustments and eliminating outdated production capacity [4][5]. - The MIIT aims to enhance development quality and foster new growth drivers through technological innovation and the integration of industry and technology [4][5]. - The government is promoting green transformation in traditional industries, emphasizing the need for deep green transitions in sectors like steel and chemicals [6][8]. Group 3: High-End Equipment Manufacturing - The equipment manufacturing sector saw a 10.2% increase in added value, significantly contributing to overall industrial growth [9][10]. - Key products such as railway vehicles, packaging equipment, and charging piles experienced rapid growth, with fixed asset investment in manufacturing achieving double-digit growth [10][11]. - The automotive industry maintained strong growth, with production and sales of new energy vehicles increasing by 41.4% and 40.3% year-on-year, respectively [10][11].

Economic Overview - The GDP of Zibo reached 256.89 billion yuan in the first half of the year, with a year-on-year growth of 5.6% and a nominal increase of 18.74 billion yuan, representing a nominal growth rate of 7.87%, which is higher than the provincial average [1] - The primary industry added value was 8.24 billion yuan, growing by 3.7%; the secondary industry added value was 118.49 billion yuan, growing by 5.1%; and the tertiary industry added value was 130.16 billion yuan, growing by 6.2% [1] Agricultural Sector - The total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery reached 14.93 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.1%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points compared to the first quarter [1] - The production of vegetables was 978,000 tons, growing by 3%, and the production of melons and fruits was 66,000 tons, growing by 3.3% [1] Industrial Sector - The added value of above-scale industries grew by 7.6% year-on-year, with 29 out of 38 major industries achieving positive growth, resulting in a growth coverage of 76.3% [2] - The top 10 industries by total added value saw "eight increases and two decreases," contributing a total of 6.2 percentage points to the city's growth [2] - High-tech manufacturing added value increased by 8.1%, and the "four strong" industries saw an added value growth of 8.5% [2] Service Sector - From January to May, the above-scale service industry achieved operating income of 23.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%, which is 0.3 percentage points higher than the first quarter [2] - Among the ten categories of industries, eight saw growth, with transportation, warehousing, and postal services, information transmission, software and information technology services, and leasing and business services growing by 10.9%, 6.4%, and 6.2% respectively [2] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in the first half of the year decreased by 1.3%, while industrial investment increased by 29.7%, with industrial technological transformation investment growing by 20.8% [2] - Private investment grew by 21.0%, accounting for 65.3% of total investment, an increase of 12 percentage points year-on-year [2] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 83.03 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.1% [3] - The retail sales of above-limit units reached 29.62 billion yuan, growing by 12.3%, with 15 out of 22 categories showing positive growth, and 9 categories achieving double-digit growth [3] - Notable growth in retail sales included grain and oil, food, tobacco and alcohol, sports and entertainment products, and communication equipment, with increases of 24.1%, 22.1%, 91.8%, and 50.2% respectively [3]

Core Insights - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's manufacturing industry is steadily developing, with accelerated high-end and intelligent transformation, leading to rapid growth in equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors [1][2] Group 1: Manufacturing Growth - The sales revenue of manufacturing enterprises accounts for approximately 29% of total enterprise revenue, providing a solid foundation for economic growth [2] - The average annual growth rates for equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sales revenue reached 9.6% and 10.4% respectively, with further growth in the first half of the year to 8.9% and 11.9% [2] - The industrial robot and service robot manufacturing sectors experienced remarkable annual growth rates of 23.2% and 17.2% [2] Group 2: Private Sector Dynamics - The private economy is vibrant, with its sales revenue accounting for 71.7% in the first half of the year, particularly in the industrial robot and new energy vehicle sectors, which achieved annual growth rates of 24.1% and 50.1% [2] Group 3: Regional Economic Coordination - Enhanced regional economic coordination has led to increased proportions of county economies and inter-provincial trade, paving the way for the scientific instrument market to expand into broader regions [3] Group 4: Innovation and High-Tech Manufacturing - From 2021 to 2024, the proportion of high-tech manufacturing in GDP is expected to rise from 15.3% to 16.9%, with R&D investment intensity reaching 2.68% [4] - The total amount of R&D expense deductions in 2024 is projected to reach 3.32 trillion yuan, benefiting over 615,000 enterprises, a 25.5% increase from 2021 [4] - Industries such as semiconductors, biomedicine, and "new three types" (new energy vehicles, photovoltaic equipment, lithium batteries) are expected to see annual growth rates of 37.6%, significantly increasing the demand for high-end instruments [4] Group 5: Intelligent Transformation - The robotics industry is growing at an annual rate exceeding 20%, indicating that intelligence is permeating production lines [5] - The annual growth rate of the core industries of the digital economy has reached 10.8%, leading to a new demand for "cloud-based instruments" [5] Group 6: Green Revolution and Market Demand - The annual growth rate of sales revenue from clean energy generation has reached 13.1%, with market share exceeding 33.8%, directly boosting the demand for photovoltaic material analysis instruments and wind power condition monitoring systems [6] Group 7: Market Expansion and Domestic Substitution - The sales revenue of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, and Pearl River Delta innovation hubs accounts for over 50%, serving as a springboard for Chinese manufacturing to reach global markets [7] - The share of county economies has risen to 24.3%, opening new market spaces for domestic instruments, especially in grassroots healthcare and food safety testing, where demand for cost-effective instruments continues to grow [7] - The scientific instrument industry is not only deepening its domestic market but also accelerating overseas expansion through the "Belt and Road" initiative, showcasing its potential as a core engine of "new productive forces" [7]

Economic Overview - The city's GDP reached 732.93 billion yuan in the first half of the year, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% at constant prices [1] - The primary industry added value was 7.82 billion yuan, growing by 2.7%; the secondary industry added value was 271.02 billion yuan, growing by 5.6%; and the tertiary industry added value was 454.09 billion yuan, growing by 4.9% [1] Production and Supply - Industrial output above designated size increased by 8.5% year-on-year, with manufacturing output growing by 8.7%, contributing 88.5% to the industrial growth [1] - The scale of service industry revenue increased by 9.5% from January to May, with 90% of the 10 industry categories showing positive growth [1] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment grew by 4.3% year-on-year, accelerating by 0.6 percentage points compared to the first quarter [2] - Investment in industrial sectors surged by 31.5%, with manufacturing investment rising by 36.6% [2] - Private investment increased by 10%, outpacing the overall investment growth by 5.7 percentage points [2] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 333.74 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.6%, accelerating by 0.9 percentage points from the first quarter [3] - Retail sales of sports and entertainment products surged by 110% and 94.9%, respectively, significantly contributing to retail growth [3] - The "old-for-new" policy stimulated substantial growth in related consumer goods, with wearable smart devices and communication equipment seeing retail sales growth of 140% and 130%, respectively [3] Emerging Industries - High-tech industries showed robust growth, with value added in high-tech manufacturing and strategic emerging industries increasing by 10.3% and 10.2%, respectively [4] - Investment in computer and office equipment manufacturing surged by 163.3%, while aerospace and pharmaceutical manufacturing investments grew by 62.6% and 38.4%, respectively [4] - Online retail sales through public networks increased by 40.8%, indicating strong demand in e-commerce [4]

Core Insights - The rapid development of new industries, continuous emergence of new business formats, and strong investment momentum are contributing to the accumulation of new driving forces and the construction of new advantages in China's economy [1] Group 1: Express Delivery Industry Growth - China's express delivery volume surpassed 1 trillion pieces as of July 9, achieving this milestone 35 days earlier than in 2024, marking five consecutive years of exceeding 1 trillion pieces [1] - The express delivery sector has maintained high growth rates, transitioning from an average of 10 billion pieces per year to 10 billion pieces per month since reaching the 1 trillion mark in 2021 [1] Group 2: Consumer Market Dynamics - The 1 trillionth package was linked to a household appliance exchange program, highlighting the vibrant domestic demand market [2] - The sales generated from consumer goods exchange programs exceeded 2.9 trillion yuan, indicating a significant economic impact [2] - Online retail sales of physical goods reached 61.191 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 6%, accounting for 24.9% of total retail sales [2] Group 3: Regional Development and Coordination - The express delivery service has expanded into western regions, with the central and western areas' express delivery volume increasing by 1.4 percentage points compared to the previous year [3] - The overall market is characterized by enhanced connectivity and efficiency, with over 10,000 passenger trains operating daily and nearly 34 billion yuan in online transactions [3] Group 4: Innovation and Sustainability - New technologies such as "aircraft + cold chain" and "unmanned vehicles + drones" are transforming the express delivery industry, enhancing service quality and operational efficiency [4] - The digital industry saw a 9.3% increase in business revenue, while high-tech service investment grew by 8.6% in the first half of the year, indicating strong momentum for high-quality development [4] - The express delivery sector reflects both economic vitality and the continuous improvement of living standards, suggesting a robust path for China's economic high-quality development [4]

Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is characterized by significant tax reforms and development, with total tax revenue expected to exceed 155 trillion yuan, accounting for approximately 80% of total fiscal revenue [1] - Cumulative new tax reductions and exemptions are projected to reach 10.5 trillion yuan, with export tax refunds exceeding 9 trillion yuan, effectively promoting economic and social development [1] Tax Reduction and Economic Impact - During the "14th Five-Year Plan," a series of tax and fee reduction policies have been implemented, resulting in a cumulative reduction of 9.9 trillion yuan from 2021 to mid-2023, with an expected total of 10.5 trillion yuan by the end of the year [2] - Tax reductions focused on supporting technological innovation and advanced manufacturing, with 3.6 trillion yuan in reductions, accounting for 36.7% of the total [2] - The private economy benefited significantly, with 7.2 trillion yuan in tax reductions for private taxpayers, representing 72.9% of the total [2] Manufacturing and Innovation Growth - Manufacturing development has shown stable growth, with sales revenue from manufacturing enterprises maintaining a 29% share of total enterprise revenue from 2021 to 2024 [3] - High-end and intelligent manufacturing sectors have seen annual sales revenue growth of 9.6% and 10.4%, respectively, with significant year-on-year increases in 2023 [3] - R&D expense deductions have been optimized, with 3.32 trillion yuan in deductions expected for 2024, marking a 25.5% increase from 2021 [3] Green Taxation and Environmental Policies - The green tax system has been continuously improved, with environmental protection and resource taxes generating 2.5 trillion yuan in revenue from 2021 to mid-2023 [4] - Tax incentives for green development have resulted in 1.5 trillion yuan in reductions, reflecting a balanced approach to environmental taxation [4] Personal Income Tax Reforms - The personal income tax system has been refined to promote equitable distribution and improve living standards, with the top 10% income earners contributing approximately 90% of total personal income tax [5] - The number of individuals benefiting from special deductions has increased significantly, with over 1 billion people enjoying these deductions in the recent tax settlement [6] Smart Taxation Initiatives - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the construction of a smart taxation system to enhance the tax payment experience, reducing the need for physical visits and paperwork [7] - By mid-2023, over 61 million taxpayers had utilized digital invoices, accounting for over 90% of total invoice amounts, improving efficiency in financial transactions [8]

Core Insights - The Chinese government has implemented a series of tax reduction and fee reduction policies during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with a total expected reduction of 10.5 trillion yuan and export tax refunds exceeding 900 billion yuan, significantly promoting economic and social development [1][2] Tax Revenue and Structure - Tax revenue is expected to exceed 155 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan, accounting for approximately 80% of total fiscal revenue, with tax revenue (excluding export tax refunds) surpassing 85 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.3 trillion yuan compared to the 13th Five-Year Plan [1] - The tax revenue structure shows a steady growth in scale and continuous optimization, with manufacturing accounting for about 30% of total tax revenue, reflecting its stabilizing role in the economy [1][2] - Direct taxes have increased to over 40% of total tax revenue, up 1 percentage point from the previous five-year period, indicating enhanced redistributive functions of the tax system [2] Manufacturing Sector Performance - The manufacturing sector's sales revenue has remained around 29% of total enterprise sales from 2021 to 2024, providing significant support for economic growth [2] - High-end and intelligent manufacturing are progressing steadily, with sales revenue in equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing growing at annual rates of 9.6% and 10.4%, respectively [2] - New energy vehicles, photovoltaic equipment, and lithium batteries have seen annual sales revenue growth of 37.6%, while industrial and service robots have grown at rates of 23.2% and 17.2% [2] Innovation and R&D Support - The R&D expense deduction policy has been optimized, with 3.32 trillion yuan in deductions expected for 2024, benefiting 615,000 enterprises, representing increases of 25.5% and 16.7% from 2021 [2] Private Sector Growth - The share of private sector sales revenue in the national economy has increased from 68.9% in 2020 to 71.7% in the first half of this year, with private enterprises in industrial robotics and new energy vehicles showing annual sales growth of 24.1% and 50.1%, respectively [3] Tax Administration Improvements - The tax administration environment has improved, with measures implemented to simplify tax payment processes, reducing required documentation by 50% and paper submissions by over 25% [3] - The tax authority has strengthened its mechanisms for combating tax-related crimes, resulting in the investigation of 779 organized crime groups and the resolution of 21,800 cases of tax fraud during the 14th Five-Year Plan [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting highlighted that China's industrial economy has maintained stable operation in 2023, showcasing resilience and vitality, with continuous optimization of industrial structure and significant achievements in high-quality development [1] Group 1: Industrial Performance - In the first half of the year, the industrial added value of enterprises above designated size increased by 6.4% year-on-year, with manufacturing added value growing by 7% [2] - The added value of equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing increased by 10.2% and 9.5% respectively, while the total volume of telecommunications business grew by 9.3% and revenue from software and information technology services rose by 11.9% [2] - By the end of June, there were 4.55 million 5G base stations and 10.43 million operational computing standard racks [2] Group 2: Key Focus Areas for the Second Half - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) emphasized eight key areas for the second half of the year, including implementing strategies to expand domestic demand and promoting high-quality development of key industrial chains [2] - There will be a focus on enhancing technological innovation and the integration of industry and technology, as well as deepening the application of digital technology [2] - The MIIT plans to promote green development and improve industrial energy efficiency, while also enhancing the quality of the information and communication industry [2] Group 3: Industry Governance and Structural Adjustments - The MIIT will soon release a work plan for stabilizing growth in ten key industries, focusing on structural adjustments, supply optimization, and the elimination of outdated production capacity [3] - The ministry will initiate actions to cultivate new momentum in emerging industrial sectors, including humanoid robots and the Internet of Things [3] - Policies will be developed to support the digital transformation of industries and enhance the quality of industrial software [3] Group 4: Anti-Competition Measures - The MIIT confirmed its commitment to consolidating the results of "anti-involution" measures in the new energy vehicle sector and strengthening governance in key industries like photovoltaics [4] - The "anti-involution" policy has evolved into a coordinated policy system that benefits industries such as photovoltaics, automobiles, agriculture, and cyclical goods [5][6] - The ongoing strengthening of "anti-involution" policies is expected to become a sustained investment theme, although comprehensive implementation of related policies is still pending [7]