保持乐观，持股过节 ——主动量化周报 核心观点 全球风险偏好的共振下行或已近尾声，节前有望迎来最佳布局窗口期，重点关注小微 盘。 ❑ 全球资产的共振调整走到什么阶段了？ 黄金隐含波动率大幅回落，对全球风险偏好的外溢冲击有望逐步下降。过去一段 时间，全球权益资产及大宗商品共振调整，虽然市场总结出诸多利空因素，如鹰 派联储主席引发流动性收缩担忧，谷歌、亚马逊的超预期资本开支引发盈利能力 下滑担忧等，但这些可能都并非市场波动的底层逻辑，例如我们看到美债市场并 未因鹰派主席提名而大幅波动，英伟达等逻辑上受益于资本开支增加的股票也同 步调整。本质上，我们认为这轮调整主要是由贵金属交易过热后的大幅下挫所引 发的全球共振去杠杆，因此何时调整结束，也应主要观察贵金属何时能够企稳。 目前来看，黄金在经历前期巨幅波动后，在 2 月 5 日开启的第二轮回落中并未继 续创新低，黄金隐含波动率也已经从 1 月 29 日的 46%大幅回落至 2 月 6 日的 34%，这可能表明市场对黄金后续走势的预期开始趋于平稳。因此，我们倾向于 认为，市场风险偏好下行最快的阶段已经过去，全球资产的共振调整已近尾声。 ❑ 节前最后一周，进攻还是防守？ ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the significant rebound in global markets, particularly in precious metals like gold and silver, and cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, following a liquidity shock caused by the announcement of the new Federal Reserve chairperson [5][14]. - Silver has shown extreme volatility, with two instances of over 20% single-day declines in the past six trading days, followed by a rebound of over 21% from its low point [5][10]. - The article emphasizes the importance of long-term value in asset allocation, particularly highlighting gold as a stable investment choice for ordinary investors due to its clearer underlying logic and lower volatility [10][12]. Group 2 - The article notes a significant rebound in U.S. and Chinese stocks, with major indices like the Nasdaq and S&P 500 rising around 2%, and the Dow Jones reaching a historical high [15][16]. - Concerns remain regarding the capital expenditures of major tech companies, which have been a source of market anxiety, particularly in relation to their ability to generate sufficient returns [21][29]. - The article highlights the competitive landscape among internet giants in Hong Kong, with Alibaba and Tencent engaging in aggressive promotional activities, raising concerns about their spending and market positioning [25][26]. Group 3 - The article suggests that the upcoming Chinese New Year may lead to a surge in tourism, indicating potential investment opportunities in the service consumption sector [39][46]. - It mentions the increasing popularity of certain travel destinations during the holiday season, emphasizing the need for investors to focus on structural opportunities within the consumption sector [46][47]. - The article advises investors to monitor the recovery of consumer spending relative to pre-pandemic levels, particularly in terms of average transaction values [46].

Core Insights - The 2026 Winter Olympics in Milan and Cortina is showcasing an increasing presence of Chinese technology products, positioning it as a "golden window" for Chinese manufacturing to demonstrate its technological strength globally [1] - Chinese brands, including TCL, Alibaba, and Anta, are actively participating as sponsors, reflecting their competitive strength and aggressive marketing strategies in the global market [1] Group 1: Chinese Technology Empowerment - TCL has joined the ranks of global partners for the Winter Olympics, integrating its technology and products into the event's operations and user experience [3] - The "Snow Velvet Wonderland" exhibition by TCL at Milan's central train station features innovative products like TVs, air conditioners, and AR/AI glasses, showcasing future technology [3][4] - TCL's "Olympic Screen Universe" initiative includes providing hundreds of large-screen TVs and digital signage for broadcasting, enhancing the viewing experience for athletes and spectators [4] Group 2: AI and Smart Solutions - The Winter Olympics is noted as the "smartest" in history, with Alibaba's AI model enhancing operational efficiency for national Olympic committees across 11 countries [5] - AI technology is also being utilized for high-precision reconstruction of snowy scenes during broadcasts, improving the clarity of fast-paced sports action [5] Group 3: Sports Marketing and Brand Promotion - TCL has signed Chinese freestyle skier Gu Ailing as its global brand ambassador and is sponsoring top athletes, leveraging the Olympics to promote its brand [6] - Other Chinese brands, such as Changhong and Midea, are also increasing their presence in winter sports marketing, with Changhong partnering with the International Ski Federation [7] - Chinese apparel brands are gaining visibility, with teams from various countries wearing outfits from brands like Li Ning and Anta during the opening ceremony [8] Group 4: Athlete Endorsements - Sports stars are becoming popular choices for brand endorsements, with Gu Ailing securing numerous deals post-2022 Beijing Olympics, highlighting the effectiveness of athlete endorsements over entertainment figures [9] - The marketing strategies of Chinese brands are evolving, with a need for more creativity and storytelling in their campaigns to enhance global appeal [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that the copy functionality for the red envelope codes from Alibaba's Qianwen app and Tencent's Yuanbao is now available in WeChat, following a previous ban on these codes by WeChat [1] Group 1 - The red envelope codes from Alibaba's Qianwen app can now be copied within WeChat [1] - Tencent's Yuanbao red envelope codes are also now copyable in WeChat [1] - WeChat had previously restricted the sharing of Qianwen activity codes, preventing users from copying them [1]

▲ 美司法部公开的爱泼斯坦案文件照片显示，扎克伯格（左一）、马斯克（右三）等人共进晚 宴。图自美媒 以下文章来源于环球网 ，作者李梓瑜 环球网 . 世界很精彩！ 秘密照片曝光！美媒：爱泼斯坦曾与马斯克、扎克伯格等科技巨头"亲密"共进晚宴。 据美国《野兽日报》当地时间7日报道，在美国司法部公开的爱泼斯坦案相关文件中，一 张爱泼斯坦2 0 1 5年与美国企业家埃隆·马斯克、"元"公司首席执行官马克·扎克伯格等科技 巨头"亲密"共进晚宴的秘密照片被曝光。 报道介绍称，爱泼斯坦201 5年8月2日给好友发邮件，称当晚他将与马斯克、扎克伯格等 人共进晚宴。次日，他给自己发了一张照片，照片中马斯克、扎克伯格及其妻子普莉希拉 ·陈等人围坐在餐桌旁。 马斯克和扎克伯格方面暂未就这一消息作出回应。 报道提到，美国《名利场》杂志2 0 1 9年最早披露了这场晚宴相关消息。晚宴由职业社交 网站领英联合创始人里德·霍夫曼在美国加利福尼亚州帕洛阿尔托市为麻省理工学院神经 科学家爱德华·博伊登举办，据称马斯克在这次会面中将爱泼斯坦介绍给扎克伯格。 再未与爱泼斯坦有过联系。"本周早些时候，他们向《纽约邮报》重申了这一声明。 马斯克也否认与 ...

Group 1 - The core narrative is that the story of AI is shifting from "software eating the world" to "hardware being constrained by the world," highlighting a growing risk in the investment landscape due to political and physical limitations on data center expansion [1][4][15] - A rare bipartisan consensus has emerged between Senator Bernie Sanders and Governor Ron DeSantis regarding the need to halt the rapid increase of data centers, driven by public concerns over the negative impacts of AI [2][4] - The political landscape is changing, with states like New York, Arizona, Georgia, and Texas considering legislation to pause new data center projects or eliminate tax incentives, reflecting a growing backlash against the expansion of AI infrastructure [2][4] Group 2 - The anticipated capital expenditure of approximately $600 billion in 2026 faces skepticism regarding its feasibility, as major tech companies plan to spend $670 billion on AI infrastructure this year alone [4][6] - The energy demand from data centers is projected to double by 2035, raising concerns about the current U.S. electrical grid's ability to meet this demand, which could hinder the construction of new data centers [8][9] - The Texas power grid operator ERCOT is implementing a review process for power consumption projects, causing delays and uncertainty for tech companies, which could jeopardize their expansion plans and the associated capital expenditures [9][10] Group 3 - The financial markets are reacting to the risk of unspent capital, leading to significant sell-offs in tech stocks, as investors reassess the viability of AI-related investments in light of potential physical constraints [10][12] - The shift in market sentiment has resulted in a "de-leveraging" trend, with funds moving from high-beta tech stocks to more defensive sectors like chemicals and regional banks, indicating a growing fear of an AI valuation bubble bursting [12][13] - The market faces a dilemma: either trust that the electrical grid can expand to accommodate the projected $600 billion in capital expenditures or acknowledge that physical limitations have been reached, which would have severe implications for AI demand and investment [13][15]

Investment Focus - The report emphasizes that both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are in an upward trend with a phase of consolidation, indicating a healthier market environment [1][35] - The first trading week of February showed signs of stabilization in A-shares with reduced turnover, while the Hang Seng TECH Index experienced a decline of approximately 6.5% [1][35] Market Outlook - The report is optimistic about a potential recovery in the Chinese equity market leading up to the Spring Festival, driven by proactive policy support and a stabilizing "policy put" below 4,100 points for the Shanghai Composite [2][36] - The overall short-selling turnover in Hong Kong is around 19%, with the Hang Seng TECH Index seeing a quick rebound in short-selling turnover to 21%, suggesting a potential for a near-term rebound [2][36] - Strategic investors, particularly insurers, are increasing their exposure to Chinese equities due to the low risk-free yield in China, making equities more attractive compared to bonds and real estate [2][36] Investment Strategy - The recommended strategy is to remain invested through the holiday, taking advantage of the Spring Festival "red-envelope" rally and using recent market pullbacks as an opportunity to increase exposure [2][37] - The report highlights the importance of focusing on structural investment opportunities within the Chinese equity market [2][37] Sector Focus - The report suggests a focus on technology sectors, particularly commercial aerospace, AI hardware, and sectors benefiting from the "anti-involution" and "going abroad" trends, which are expected to show performance recovery [3][4] - Consumer sectors such as automotive, tourism, and textiles are highlighted as key areas for investment during the Spring Festival [4] - The report also points to the potential for recovery in cyclical industries, including chemicals, engineering machinery, and real estate, as seasonal policies are expected to boost demand [4]

Core Viewpoint - The narrative around AI is shifting from "software eating the world" to "hardware being constrained by the world," highlighting the political and physical limitations facing the expansion of data centers in the U.S. [2] Group 1: Political Environment - New York has proposed a bill to pause the construction and operation of new data centers for at least three years, marking it as the sixth state to consider such a measure [3] - There is a rare bipartisan agreement between Senator Bernie Sanders and Governor Ron DeSantis on the need to slow down the rapid increase of data centers due to public concerns over their impact [3][4] - DeSantis has shifted his stance from supporting tax incentives for data centers to advocating for legislation that requires these centers to fully pay for their water and electricity costs [4] Group 2: Financial Implications - The anticipated capital expenditure of approximately $600 billion by 2026 is now under scrutiny due to political and physical constraints [6] - Major tech companies, including Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Google, plan to spend $670 billion on AI infrastructure this year, which is a significant investment [8] - Amazon alone is expected to increase its capital expenditure by nearly 60% to $200 billion this year [9] Group 3: Energy Demand and Infrastructure - Data centers' energy demand is projected to double by 2035, increasing from 34.7 GW in 2024 to 106 GW, equivalent to the electricity consumption of 80 million households [11] - In Texas, the ERCOT has proposed a review of approximately 8.2 GW of power consumption projects, which could significantly impact previously approved projects [12] - The uncertainty surrounding energy supply is jeopardizing the expansion plans of tech giants, as the inability to connect to the grid could prevent the realization of the $670 billion budget [12] Group 4: Market Reactions - The financial market has reacted sharply to the risk of capital expenditures not being realized, leading to significant sell-offs in tech stocks [13] - Independent power producers (IPPs) and nuclear power stocks have also seen declines, as the market realizes that without grid expansion, new power demands cannot be met [14] - There is a growing trend of funds moving from high-beta tech stocks to defensive sectors like chemicals and regional banks, indicating a shift in market sentiment [14][15]

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment in the A-share market is primarily driven by internal factors, such as proactive cooling measures and a sell-off in broad-based ETFs, while external factors include political actions by Trump, the change in the Federal Reserve chair, geopolitical tensions in Iran, and a decline in global AI stock preferences. Despite these disturbances, the fundamental industry outlook in China remains intact, and the market sentiment has sufficiently released, suggesting a potential continuation of the spring rally after the Spring Festival [1][2][9]. Internal Factors - The proactive cooling measures by regulators have led to a sell-off in broad-based ETFs, resulting in a temporary decline in market risk appetite. Some thematic sectors have experienced speculative bubbles, prompting the China Securities Regulatory Commission to implement "counter-cyclical adjustments" [9][11]. - The adjustment is viewed as phase-specific, with the proactive cooling measures nearing completion and seasonal factors related to the Spring Festival and the Two Sessions expected to support market recovery [2][11]. External Factors - External disturbances, including Trump's political actions, the new Federal Reserve chair's policy expectations, and geopolitical tensions in Iran, have amplified the adjustment pressure. However, these factors are not expected to have a long-term impact on the A-share market due to its weak correlation with global markets [9][11][13]. - The current external disturbances do not possess the necessary conditions to transmit long-term impacts to the A-share market, as they primarily pertain to financial and political short-term disruptions rather than fundamental changes in supply chains or demand [13][15]. Market Sentiment and Liquidity - Market sentiment has sufficiently cooled, with a significant reduction in trading volume and a drop in the Shanghai Composite Index below its 20-day moving average. This indicates that the previously overheated market sentiment has been effectively resolved [18][20]. - The sell-off in broad-based ETFs has shown signs of easing since January 30, which is expected to improve the independent funding environment of the A-share market [15][18]. Industry Focus and Investment Opportunities - Key sectors to focus on include AI computing power, chemicals, electric equipment, and energy storage, with potential investment opportunities arising from upcoming policy signals from local Two Sessions and the national Two Sessions [20][28]. - The AI computing power sector is expected to see significant capital expenditure increases, with major companies like Meta, Google, Amazon, and Microsoft planning substantial investments in AI infrastructure [20][21]. - The chemical sector is experiencing a valuation recovery driven by price increases in various sub-sectors, with leading companies in PET, polyurethane, and other chemical products becoming focal points for investment [24][25]. - The energy storage industry is benefiting from both domestic and international demand, particularly from AI-driven data center projects in North America, highlighting its critical role in power solutions [28][29].

[Table_Page] 投资策略|专题报告 2026 年 2 月 8 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Summary [Table_Title] ] 春节前后，港股如何反应？ ——港股市场策略展望 报告摘要： （4）港股天量 IPO 对市场影响不大，影响主要在于 IPO 过后 6 个月 的解禁高峰。典型的例如 11 年年中、15 年下半年、19 年 3 月、21 年 二季度、22 年年中，解禁潮都与港股下跌出现在相似时间段。26 年 3 月主要是有色金属（紫金黄金国际、南山铝业国际）+茶饮（蜜雪冰城） 的解禁潮，中大型规模公司的解禁规模 872 亿港元，高于去年年末的 解禁小高峰。由于港股通账户并不能够参与打新，享受稀缺性公司的 上市红利，却需要承受限售股解禁带来的风险，这可能确实是南向资 金对于 2026 年港股的主要担忧之一。 | [分析师： Table_Author]刘晨明 | | | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号：S0260524020001 | | | SFC CE No. BVH021 | | | 010-59136616 | | | liuchenming@gf.com.cn ...