今日早参 2025 年 9 月 02 日 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：人民币加速升值，流动性保持宽松 偏低基数和极端天气扰动退坡下，8 月经济高频指标同比稳健；地产成交边 际企稳，部分可能受北京上海地产政策优化和潜在的财富效应提振；居民暑 期出行景气度较高，但以旧换新补贴对汽车消费的支撑边际退坡；外需方 面，8 月港口高频指标显示出口同比或较 7 月放缓。出行及消费方面，7 月 1 日-8 月 23 日全国铁路累计发送旅客数同比+6.4%，8 月国内/国际航班数同比 走高 0.9%/5.3%；8 月 1-24 日，乘用车日均零售销量同比较 7 月的 7%放缓 至 3%。出口方面，高频指标显示 8 月出口同比增速或较 7 月有所放缓。制 造业开工维持韧性：8 月焦化/高炉开工率高于去年同期 3/4.6 个百分点，水 泥开工率同比回落 7.3 个百分点，建筑钢材成交量亦低于去年同期 10.8%。 地产方面，8 月 1-30 日，44 城新房/22 城二手房成交面积同比增速较 7 月的 -19.8%/-6.1 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Yunda Holdings has experienced fluctuations in its stock price and financial performance, with a notable decline in net profit despite revenue growth [1][2]. - As of September 2, Yunda's stock price was 7.63 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 22.121 billion yuan, and a year-to-date stock price increase of 4.22% [1]. - The company reported a revenue of 24.833 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.80%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 49.19% to 529 million yuan [2]. Group 2 - Yunda's main business revenue composition includes 65.81% from delivery fees, 29.82% from transfer fees, and 2.93% from waybill sales [1]. - The company has distributed a total of 3.385 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 1.221 billion yuan distributed in the last three years [3]. - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased to 85,900, with an average of 32,788 circulating shares per person, a slight decrease of 0.19% [2].

Core Insights - The China Logistics and Purchasing Federation reported that the logistics industry prosperity index rose by 0.4 percentage points to 50.9 in August, with the total business volume index and new order index remaining in the expansion zone for six and seven consecutive months respectively [2] Company Performance - SF Holding's express logistics business volume reached 7.85 billion parcels in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 25.7%, surpassing the industry average growth rate of 19.3% [2] - The company reported a revenue of 146.858 billion yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 9.26% year-on-year, with a net profit of 5.738 billion yuan, up 19.37% year-on-year, and earnings per share of 1.16 yuan, an increase of 16% [2] - SF Holding plans to distribute a mid-term cash dividend of 4.6 yuan per 10 shares, totaling approximately 2.32 billion yuan, which accounts for 40% of the net profit attributable to shareholders in the first half of the year, an increase from the previous year [2] Business Segments - All six business segments of SF Holding saw revenue growth, with traditional express delivery maintaining stable growth and new business developments progressing well [3] - The express delivery business benefited from domestic policies promoting consumption upgrades, with the express business revenue reaching 19.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.5% [4] - The same-city instant delivery service emerged as the fastest-growing segment, generating 5.49 billion yuan in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 38.9%, with net profit doubling to 140 million yuan, up 120.43% [4] International and Supply Chain Business - SF Holding's international and supply chain business ranked second in revenue, with 59 domestic and 19 international routes opened by June, and over 2.5 million square meters of overseas warehouse space [6] - The international air freight operations exceeded 6,800 flights in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 84%, although the supply chain and international division reported a net loss of approximately 300 million yuan [6] - Excluding certain factors, the net profit for the supply chain and international division grew by 178% year-on-year [6] Industry Trends - The express delivery market is transitioning from explosive growth to normalized growth, leading to intensified competition in the existing market [7] - The average price per parcel for major companies, including SF Holding, has decreased, with a year-on-year drop of 12.2% for SF Holding [8] - The industry is responding to price pressures by raising parcel prices and focusing on technology development, service upgrades, and brand building [8] Future Outlook - SF Holding aims to stabilize the competitive environment through measures against low-price competition and improved worker protections [9] - The company plans to continue proactive investment strategies to expand business and resources, expecting these investments to yield stable performance in the coming year [9]

Group 1: Express Delivery Volume Rankings - Guangzhou ranks first in express delivery processing volume with 1.303 billion pieces from January to July 2025, followed by Jinhua with 1.198 billion pieces and Shenzhen with 720 million pieces [1][4][5] - The new metric of express delivery processing volume includes both express business volume and delivery volume, providing a more comprehensive view of a city's express delivery activity [2] Group 2: Express Delivery Revenue Rankings - Shanghai leads the country in express delivery revenue with 151.02 billion yuan, followed by Guangzhou at 54.36 billion yuan and Shenzhen at 36.17 billion yuan [8][11] - The top ten cities in express delivery revenue include four from Guangdong: Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Dongguan, and Jieyang [10] Group 3: Factors Contributing to Rankings - Jinhua and Jieyang, despite being smaller cities, excel in express delivery due to their developed e-commerce sectors and efficient logistics networks [7] - Guangzhou's success in express delivery volume is attributed to its vast supply chain, numerous online stores, and strong logistics infrastructure, making it a critical hub for express delivery [16][17][18]

Group 1: Overall Industry Insights - The transportation sector's revenue and profit showed year-on-year growth in H1 2025, with total revenue reaching 17,351 billion yuan, up 1.8%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 949 billion yuan, up 4.3% [2] - In Q2 2025, the transportation sector maintained stable revenue at 8,981 billion yuan, with a net profit of 477 billion yuan, reflecting a 6.3% increase year-on-year [2] Group 2: Express Delivery Sector - The express delivery business volume in H1 2025 reached 957 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 19.3%, while the average price per piece was 7.5 yuan, down 8% [2] - In Q2 2025, the express delivery volume was 505.9 billion pieces, up 17% year-on-year, with an average price of 7.39 yuan, down 7% [2] - The express delivery segment's revenue grew by 10% year-on-year in H1 2025, but net profit remained flat; in Q2 2025, revenue increased by 11%, while net profit declined by 1% due to performance drops in franchise express companies [2] Group 3: Aviation Sector - The aviation sector turned profitable in Q2 2025, with a revenue increase driven by passenger volume growth; H1 2025 saw a 7% revenue increase and a 71% rise in net profit attributable to shareholders [3] - National civil aviation passenger volume reached 3.7 billion in H1 2025, up 6% year-on-year, with international passenger volume increasing by 25% [3] - The airport segment also experienced revenue growth of 6% in H1 2025, with net profit increasing by 26% [3] Group 4: Shipping Sector - The shipping sector maintained a stable outlook, with H1 2025 revenue up 2.8% but net profit down 2.8% [4] - The container shipping index (CCFI) averaged 1,252.63 points, down 8.2% year-on-year, while the PDCI index increased by 10.6% [4] Group 5: Port Sector - National port cargo throughput reached 5.7 billion tons in H1 2025, up 2.5% year-on-year, with revenue growth of 5% and net profit growth of 10% [5] - Container port throughput increased by 6.9% year-on-year, with notable performances from major ports like Ningbo and Qingdao [5] Group 6: Road and Rail Sectors - The road sector saw a 3.03% decline in revenue in H1 2025, but net profit increased by 3.4% [5] - The railway sector's revenue was 778 billion yuan, up 0.4%, while net profit decreased by 11.2% [6]

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is undergoing a significant shift towards "anti-involution" policies, leading to price increases and a potential recovery in profitability for companies [3][4][10]. Group 1: Price Adjustments and Market Dynamics - Several express companies in key e-commerce regions like Guangdong and Zhejiang have raised delivery fees, with expectations of similar actions in other provinces [3][5]. - The price adjustments range from 0.3 to 0.7 yuan per ticket in Guangdong, with a new minimum price set at 1.4 yuan [5]. - The average profit margin for express delivery points has drastically decreased from 10% to 2-4% since 2015, indicating a severe impact from previous price wars [6][12]. Group 2: Impact on Profitability and Service Quality - The recent price hikes are expected to alleviate cost pressures on logistics providers, with some benefiting from the new pricing mechanism [6][13]. - The average ticket price increase is anticipated to improve company profits and stabilize courier incomes, moving the industry from volume-based competition to value-based competition [4][13]. - The express delivery sector has faced a decline in average ticket prices, with a 17.84% year-on-year drop in early 2025, despite a 21.6% increase in business volume [12]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment and Industry Response - The "anti-involution" measures are a response to previous irrational price wars that destabilized the market and harmed courier rights [11][12]. - The National Postal Administration has implemented strict measures against below-cost pricing, aiming to restore healthy competition in the industry [5][13]. - The introduction of new regulations, including the draft amendment to the Price Law, aims to combat harmful competitive practices [12]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Strategic Adjustments - Experts predict that the express delivery industry may gradually escape the cycle of price wars over the next 2-3 years, thanks to ongoing regulatory efforts and company transformations [15]. - Companies are encouraged to enhance service quality and explore collaborative models with e-commerce businesses to improve operational efficiency [14][15]. - The focus on high-quality service and technological advancements is seen as essential for maintaining competitiveness in the evolving market landscape [14].

Group 1 - As of August 31, 2025, a total of 5,432 listed companies in China disclosed their semi-annual reports, showing a continuous optimization of industrial structure and steady strengthening of internal driving forces [1] - In the first half of 2025, the total operating revenue of listed companies reached 35.01 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.16%, while net profit was 3 trillion yuan, up 2.54%, with an acceleration of 4.76 percentage points compared to the previous year [1] - Nearly 60% of companies reported positive revenue growth, and over three-quarters achieved profitability, with 2,475 companies showing positive net profit growth and 1,943 companies experiencing both revenue and net profit growth [1] Group 2 - Leading industries are showing significant profitability advantages, with accelerated industry concentration driven by policies and funding, particularly in AI, chips, and optical modules [3] - The growth performance of small and medium-sized enterprises is notable, with the ChiNext, STAR Market, and Beijing Stock Exchange companies showing revenue growth rates of 9.03%, 4.90%, and 6.08% respectively, surpassing the overall market level [3] Group 3 - The Beijing Stock Exchange serves as a primary platform for innovative small and medium-sized enterprises, showing comprehensive recovery growth compared to the same period last year, particularly in high-end equipment manufacturing, new energy, and new materials [5] - The advanced manufacturing sector is leading in performance, with significant recovery in industrial manufacturing, sustained market consumption potential, and stable growth in overseas business [6] Group 4 - Key advanced manufacturing sectors such as military, new energy, and medical devices are showing strong performance, with net profit growth exceeding 30% in the new energy vehicle sector [6] - The cultural consumption sector is also experiencing growth, with gaming and film industries seeing revenue increases and net profit growth rates exceeding 70% [6] Group 5 - Despite facing tariff pressures from the U.S., listed companies demonstrated resilience, achieving overseas revenue of 4.90 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.50%, with a continuous rise in overseas revenue share for three consecutive years [8] - The shipbuilding industry is leading globally, with export delivery value increasing by 38.6%, and listed companies in this sector reporting revenue growth of 23.42% and net profit growth of 135.33% [8] - Emerging markets are becoming core growth drivers, with domestic internet giants accelerating overseas warehouse layouts, leading to significant investment growth in cross-border e-commerce exceeding 15% [8]

证券时报记者从浙江地区的部分快递网点与电商商家处了解到，7月底、8月初以来，电商快递价格确实 有不同程度的上调。快递费用调涨，对特价快递与小件产生的影响较为明显，不过目前各大快递网点的 业务量总体平稳。 业内分析人士在接受证券时报记者采访时表示，此次国家"反内卷"政策力度空前，短期看，单票均价将 回升，推动企业利润修复，末端派费的增加，将改善快递员收入，提高稳定性；长期看，有望打破"以 价换量"的循环，引导快递行业从规模竞争转向价值竞争。 核心区域开始涨价 为避免"价格战"给企业发展带来恶性循环，国家邮政局近期采取多项举措，严厉打击"低于成本价"的行 为，快递行业亦纷纷响应，多地陆续上调单票价格，保证企业利润。 （原标题：这一行业，"反内卷"力度超预期！） 快递行业"反内卷"步伐加快。近期，在电商重镇广东、浙江两地，多家快递公司对电商客户上调快递费 用。除浙江义乌、广东外，业内对福建、安徽、 江苏、山东等地也有涨价预期。 其中，广东地区调价力度尤为显著，调价幅度为每票0.3元至0.7元，且设定1.4元/票的底线价。而在广 东调价之前，另一快递重镇浙江义乌已于7月下旬启动涨价机制，快递底价从1.1元涨至1.2元 ...

Group 1 - As of August 31, 2025, a total of 5,432 listed companies in A-shares disclosed their semi-annual reports, showing continuous optimization of industrial structure and steady strengthening of endogenous momentum [1] - In the first half of 2025, the total operating revenue of listed companies reached 35.01 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.16%, while net profit was 3 trillion yuan, up 2.54% year-on-year, with an acceleration of 4.76 percentage points compared to the previous year's full-year growth [1] - Nearly 60% of companies reported revenue growth, over three-quarters achieved profitability, with 2,475 companies showing positive net profit growth and 1,943 companies experiencing both revenue and net profit growth [1] Group 2 - Leading industries are showing significant profitability advantages, with accelerated industry concentration driven by policies and funding, particularly in AI, chips, and optical modules, which are driving growth across the entire industrial chain [3] - The performance of small and medium-sized enterprises is notable, with revenue growth in the ChiNext, Sci-Tech Innovation Board, and Beijing Stock Exchange reaching 9.03%, 4.90%, and 6.08% respectively, significantly surpassing the overall market level [3] Group 3 - The advanced manufacturing sector is leading in performance, with industries such as military, new energy, and medical devices showing strong results [7] - The "old-for-new" subsidy policy has led to sustained high growth in the production and sales of new energy vehicles, with related companies seeing net profit growth exceeding 30% [7] - The home appliance replacement trend has resulted in industry revenue and net profit growth exceeding 9% [7] Group 4 - Despite facing tariff pressures from the U.S., listed companies demonstrated resilience, achieving overseas revenue of 4.90 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.50%, with the proportion of overseas income rising for three consecutive years [9] - Shipbuilding has led globally, with export delivery value increasing by 38.6%, and listed companies in this sector reporting revenue growth of 23.42% and net profit growth of 135.33% [9] - Emerging markets have become a core growth driver, with domestic internet giants accelerating overseas warehouse layouts, leading to significant investment growth in cross-border e-commerce, exceeding 15% [9]

在全球电商的浪潮中，起家于东南亚的快递新贵极兔速递，正借着全球电商的红利持续扩张。上市近一 年，极兔速递环球有限公司（01519.HK）的"半年考"成绩单日前出炉。 财报数据显示，2025年上半年，极兔总收入达到55.0亿美元，同比增长13.1%；经调整净利润为1.6亿美 元，同比增长147.1% 。 这份看似亮眼的成绩单背后，却呈现出一幅"冰火两重天"的图景：东南亚"大本营"成为上半年业绩的一 抹亮色，市场份额与盈利能力双双提升；而作为其业务量最大单一市场的中国，则深陷行业价格战的泥 潭，正以利润为代价换取市场份额的稳固。 "我们在东南亚市场的市场领导地位进一步巩固，收入和盈利能力均实现高速增长，"极兔速递首席财务 官郑世强在业绩发布时表示，"在中国，尽管面对行业激烈的价格竞争，我们也保持了包裹量的稳健增 长和业务的利润韧性。" 东南亚"主场"：吃透电商红利，新市场迎盈利拐点 作为极兔速递的发源地和利润核心，东南亚市场展现了其"主场"的优势。报告期内，极兔在东南亚处理 的包裹量为32.3亿件，相较去年同期的20.4亿件，同比增长达到57.9% 。 包裹量的激增，是在区域竞争对手普遍承压的背景下实现的。根据弗 ...