工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 6 月 24 日） 一、研究观点 点评 23 日多晶硅震荡偏弱，主力 2508 收于 30615 元/吨，日内跌幅 3.3%，持 仓增仓 52026 手至 78183 手；SMM 多晶硅 N 型硅料价格跌至 35500 元/ 吨，最低交割品 N 型硅料价格跌至 34500 元/吨，现货对主力升水扩至 3885 元/吨。工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2509 收于 7420 元/吨，日内跌幅 0.2%，持仓减仓 2437 手至 30.3 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 8636 元/ 吨，较上一交易日持稳。最低交割品#553 价格降至 7600 元/吨，现货升 水扩至 170 元/吨。西南复产增速进入瓶颈期，下游稍有排产放量，需求 短期回暖，硅厂重拾封盘不报策略，工业硅止跌但反弹难及前高位置，以 区间高抛低吸为主。6 月多晶硅北减南增，西南复产增量更为明确，终端 需求大幅转弱，自下而上压价态延续，多晶硅仍以偏空思路对待。月内双 硅边际或有短暂分歧，持续关注双硅复产动向和比价关系，PS-SI 价差收 敛机会。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES ...

| VA 2 SDICFULURES | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年06月23日 | | 铜 | ★☆☆ | 肖静 首席分析师 | | | | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 铝 | ★☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 氧化铝 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 铸造铝合金 文文文 | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | ★☆☆ | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 铝 | な女女 | | | 镇及不锈钢 ★☆☆ | | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | | | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 锡 | 女女女 | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 碳酸锂 | 女女女 | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 工业培 | ななな | | | 多晶硅 | なな女 | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 周一沪铜震荡收阴,晚间关注伦铜MA20日均线表现。今日现铜78325元,平水铜升水收窄到70元。周末SWM社库 减少1.63万吨 ...

Report Summary 1. Market Analysis - On June 18, 2025, the main lithium carbonate contract 2509 opened at 60,000 yuan/ton and closed at 59,880 yuan/ton, a 0.02% decrease from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 181,046 lots, and the open interest was 306,885 lots, a decrease of 450 lots from the previous day. The total open interest of all contracts was 604,974 lots, a decrease of 7,855 lots from the previous day. The total trading volume of the contracts decreased by 12,486 lots from the previous day, and the overall speculation degree was 0.43. The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 29,967 lots, a decrease of 1,746 lots from the previous day [1]. - According to SMM data, on June 18, 2025, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 59,900 - 61,000 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 58,350 - 59,350 yuan/ton, both remaining stable from the previous day. The lithium carbonate market still shows a pattern of oversupply, with the supply side having relatively sufficient available quantities and the demand side being relatively weak. Downstream material enterprises have low procurement willingness and mainly replenish inventory on a just - in - time basis [1]. 2. Inventory - According to the latest SMM statistics, the spot inventory is 133,500 tons, including 57,700 tons in smelters, 40,700 tons in downstream enterprises, and 35,200 tons in other inventories [2]. 3. Strategy - Overall, the fundamentals are weak, but there are still many positions in the near - month contracts, and many warehouse receipts have been cancelled, resulting in certain market games. Attention should be paid to the risks caused by position reduction and delivery games. If there is a significant rebound, short - selling hedging can be considered at an appropriate time. - For single - side trading, sell on rallies for hedging; for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading, no strategies are proposed [3].

周三沪铜阳线上涨，现铜78830元，上海铜升水180元。隔夜美国5月零售销售录得年初以来最大降幅，市场关注 联储仪息会议。技术上,伦铜依托MA20日均线稳固震荡。空头持有。 (铝&氧化铝) 今日沪铝延续偏强，华东现货升水收窄20元至190元。近期低库存状态造成Back结构加深短期有利于多头、指数 持仓激增至60万手以上警惕资金转向。下游开工持续走弱,现货价格向上空间有限，关注负反馈能否在库存上 兑现以及月差收窄后的盘面沾空机会。铸造铝合金跟随铝价上行，保太ADC12报价再涨100元至19700元。铝和铸 造铝合金现货价差扩大至千元具备较好的做缩价差机会,但盘面上AL2511与AD2511价差仅在400-500元波动,如 有扩大考虑多AD空AL个入。近期氧化铝现货成交稀少，各地指数价格连续回落至3200元，几内亚矿石在75美元 趋稳对应山西成本在3000元附近。行业利润修复后国内运行产能连续四周回升至9200万吨以上，过剩压力下期 货贴水如继续修复考虑反弹沽空参与。 【锌】 沪锌06合约实际交割8675吨，07合约持仓偏高，低库存支撑下,SMMO#锌均价报22010元/吨，对07合约实时升水 180元/吨,下游 ...

| 有色及贵金属日度数据简报 | 2025/6/18 | 莫骁雄 | 李先飞 | 王荣 | Z0012691 | Z0019413 | Z0002529 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国泰君安期货研究所有 | jixianfei@gtht.com | moxiaoxiong@gtht.com | wangrong2@gtht.com | 色及贵金属组 | 王宗源(联系人) | 张再宇 | 刘雨萱 | Z0021479 | F03142619 | Z0020476 | | | | | | | zhangzaiyu@gtht.com | liuyuxuan@gtht.com | wangzongyuan@gtht.com | 黄金 (AU) | 今天 | 上月 | 上周 | 前一交易日 | | | | | | | | | | 指标名称 | 2025/5/20 | 2025/6/17 | 2025/6/11 | ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 6 月 18 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 LME 铜震荡偏弱，下跌 0.26%至 9670 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力上涨 0.04%至 78560 | | | | | | | 元/吨；国内现货进口维系较大亏损。宏观方面，美国 5 月工业整体产出意外环比下 | | | | | | | 降了 0.2%，低于市场预期的持平，4 月小幅上修为上升 0.1%；美国 5 月零售销售环比 | | | | | | | -0.9%，低于预期-0.6%和前值-0.1%。中东局势成为短期的焦点，有媒体称特朗普表 | | | | | | | 示已完全控制伊朗上空，美方的耐心在耗尽，并在权衡美国是否应进一步介入以伊冲 | | | | | | | 突，考虑包括打击伊朗在内的一系列选项；特朗普越来越有意动用美国军事资产空袭 | | | | | | | 伊朗核设施，但若伊朗作出重大让步，他仍对外交解决持开放态度。结合此前各国撤 | | | | | | 铜 | 侨行为，事态进展 ...

跨期套利跟踪 2025/06/18 铜 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -330 -510 -780 -950 理论价差 496 889 1292 1694 锌 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -425 -560 -655 -725 理论价差 214 333 453 572 铝 次月-现货月 三月-现货月四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -425 -545 -645 -725 理论价差 215 330 446 561 铅 次月-现货月 三月-现货 月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -50 -55 -55 -55 理论价差 210 315 421 527 镍 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货 月 五月-现货月 价差 -660 -470 -330 -170 锡 5-1 价差 -780 理论价差 5460 期现套利跟踪 2025/06/18 铜 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 25 -305 理论价差 475 862 锌 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 60 -365 理论价差 132 260 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于 ...

免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但公司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 发生任何变化。且全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，客户应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担期货交 锌 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 -10 -180 理论价差 223 281 铅 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 210 280 理论价差 211 323 跨品种套利跟踪 2025/06/17 铜/锌 铜/铝 铜/铅 铝/锌 铝/铅 铅/锌 沪（三连） 3.63 3.87 4.58 0.94 1.19 0.79 伦（三连） 3.65 3.86 4.83 0.95 1.25 0.76 易后果，凡据此入市者，我公司不承担任何责任。未经公司授权，不得随意转载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全 部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Not specified clearly in a standard way, marked as "な女女" [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ and "な女女" [1] - Alumina: Not specified clearly in a standard way, marked as "ななな" [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not specified clearly in a standard way, marked as "文文文" [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Tin: Not specified clearly in a standard way, marked as "なな☆" [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Not specified clearly in a standard way, marked as "な女女" [1] - Industrial Silicon: Not specified clearly in a standard way, marked as "ななな" [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of non - ferrous metals shows different trends in various sub - industries. Some are affected by supply - demand relationships, inventory changes, and cost factors, with corresponding investment suggestions for each metal [2][3][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - Shanghai copper fluctuated on Tuesday. After delivery, the spot copper was reported at 78,715 yuan. After the month - change, the premium in Shanghai was 240 yuan, lower than the same period last month. The London copper oscillated steadily relying on the MA20 moving average. The visible inventories in the US and London markets showed a strong seesaw effect. The total inventory of the two markets was about 300,000 tons, a decrease of about 40,000 - 50,000 tons compared with the beginning of the year. Short - sellers should consider changing positions to the 2508 contract and stop losses above 79,500 [2] Aluminum & Alumina - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly. After delivery and month - change, the spot premium in East China was 210 yuan. On Monday, the social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 200 tons, while that of aluminum rods increased by 400 tons, showing signs of a slowdown in destocking. The current strong reality and weak expectation deepened the Back structure, which was beneficial to long - positions in the short term. After the index position soared to 600,000 lots, beware of the change in capital direction. After Shanghai aluminum filled the previous gap, there was no strong upward driving force technically. Cast aluminum alloy maintained a shock. The spot price difference between aluminum and cast aluminum alloy widened to 1,000 yuan, providing a good opportunity to narrow the price difference. The price difference between AL2511 and AD2511 on the disk fluctuated between 400 - 500 yuan. Recently, the spot transaction price of alumina dropped to 3,100 - 3,200 yuan. After the industry profit was repaired, the supply elasticity was large. The domestic operating capacity had increased for four consecutive weeks to over 9.2 million tons. Under the pressure of over - supply, the futures continued to be weak [2] Zinc - The capital congestion of Shanghai zinc was still high. Some short - sellers took profits, driving the disk to rebound. The weighted position of Shanghai zinc decreased by 13,600 lots to 280,500 lots, and the capital outflow was 245 million yuan. Consumption was advanced, and there was a downward pressure on demand in June compared with the previous month. The previously overhauled smelters resumed production one after another, and new production capacity was put into operation. Against the background of increasing supply and weak demand, zinc should be mainly short - sold on rebounds [3] Aluminum - Due to weak demand and the expectation of some secondary aluminum smelters to resume production, long - sellers reduced their positions on Tuesday. Shanghai aluminum failed to effectively break through the key pressure level of 17,000 yuan. The SMM1 aluminum was at a discount of 150 yuan/ton to the near - month disk, and the refined - scrap price difference was 25 yuan/ton. The downstream showed good enthusiasm for inquiring at low prices. The spot import window was still closed. The tight supply of aluminum concentrate and waste batteries provided strong cost support. Shanghai aluminum was expected to oscillate in the range of 16,500 - 17,000 yuan/ton [5] Nickel & Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel declined steadily, and the market trading was active. In the spot market, the premium of Jinchuan nickel was 2,500 yuan, the premium of imported nickel was 300 yuan, and the premium of electrowon nickel was 250 yuan. The price of high - nickel ferro - nickel was reported at 933 yuan per nickel point. Recently, the upstream price support weakened significantly. In terms of inventory, the inventory of nickel ferro - nickel increased by 3,000 tons to 34,600 tons, the pure nickel inventory remained flat at 39,000 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory increased by 25,000 tons to 999,000 tons. Shanghai nickel was in a short - selling trend, and short - sellers should mainly hold their positions [6] Tin - Shanghai tin oscillated and closed down. The spot tin was reported at 264,000 yuan. Both domestic and foreign tin prices were blocked at the MA60 moving average. Indonesia's tin exports continued to increase in May, and the production capacity affected by the natural gas supply interruption in Malaysia in April restarted, depressing the tin price. Overall, although the technical pattern of the tin market was stable, the trend direction was not significant between the supply - demand reality and expectations. Some short - sellers reduced their positions and held them in the far - month contracts [7] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium price fluctuated at a low level. The market trading was dull. The downstream material manufacturers had weak purchasing enthusiasm and no further intention to stock up, waiting for the price to decline further. The price game between the upstream and downstream led to a continuous low trading activity in the market, and the psychological price gap between buyers and sellers was obvious. The total market inventory increased by 1,000 tons to 133,500 tons, the downstream inventory decreased by 400 tons to 41,000 tons, the smelter inventory increased by 500 tons to 58,000 tons, and the intermediate link increased inventory by 1,000 tons. The short - selling core driving force was stagnant, and it was regarded as a short - term shock [8] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures rose with a reduction in positions, closing at 7,360 yuan/ton. Currently, the quotations of silicon enterprises remained stable. The disk price was inverted below the industry's lowest cost line and lower than the manufacturers' quotations. Last week, the shipment situation of the delivery warehouse improved, and the downstream had certain replenishment behavior. Some short - sellers on the disk closed their positions to boost the rebound, and some long - sellers took profits and left the market. The current market sentiment was cautious, and the upward and downward spaces were limited. In terms of supply and demand, the resumption of production of large factories at the beginning of the month advanced, and there might be further production increases in Xinjiang in the future. Although the downstream demand improved marginally, the increase was difficult to offset the increase in supply. The main trend was still bearish, and it was advisable to hold a wait - and - see attitude in the short term [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures oscillated and closed down, and the market trading atmosphere was dull. The SMM re -投料 spot quotation was 35,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The sentiment in the downstream silicon wafer market was relatively low, and the production schedule in June was expected to be reduced by about 2GW. In contrast, the production schedule of polysilicon in June increased by 4,800 tons month - on - month to about 100,000 tons. If the production continued to increase, it would further increase the inventory pressure. Silicon wafer enterprises generally suffered losses, and their acceptance of high - price polysilicon raw materials decreased. It was expected that the polysilicon spot price would face pressure, and the disk trend would remain oscillating weakly [10]

免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但公司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 发生任何变化。且全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，客户应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担期货交 锌 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 110 -235 理论价差 43 169 铅 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 120 190 理论价差 101 213 跨品种套利跟踪 2025/06/13 铜/锌 铜/铝 铜/铅 铝/锌 铝/铅 铅/锌 沪（三连） 3.59 3.87 4.64 0.93 1.20 0.77 伦（三连） 3.67 3.85 4.86 0.95 1.26 0.76 易后果，凡据此入市者，我公司不承担任何责任。未经公司授权，不得随意转载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全 部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误导 ...