Report Title - The report is titled "Futures Research Report - Non-ferrous Metals" [1][2] Report Date - The report is dated November 20, 2025 [5] Core Views Copper - Today, Shanghai copper prices rose first and then fell, with little change in open interest. The short - term market has released the hawkish sentiment towards the Fed, but the US dollar index remains strong above 100, which is negative for non - ferrous metals. Overseas inventories are rising, pressuring copper prices. Attention should be paid to the US non - farm payrolls data tonight. Technically, focus on the support at the 86,000 level [7] Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum prices also rose first and then fell, with open interest continuously declining. The overseas US dollar index is strong, and the domestic atmosphere is weakening. As aluminum prices fall, downstream transactions are warming up, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has slightly decreased. On the 20th, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 613,000 tons, a decrease of 24,000 tons from Monday. Technically, focus on the support of the 20 - day moving average [8] Nickel - Shanghai nickel prices decreased with increasing positions, erasing the overnight gains. The domestic market weakened, and non - ferrous metals generally declined. Nickel prices decreased with increasing positions, showing strong downward momentum. As nickel prices fall, the spot premium is gradually strengthening, indicating stronger support at the spot end. Technically, focus on the support at the 115,000 level [9] Industry Dynamics Copper - On November 20, according to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, in October 2025, China's imports of copper scrap and waste reached 196,600 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.81% and a year - on - year increase of 7.35%. The cumulative imports from January to October were 1.8956 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.97% [11] Aluminum - On November 20, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 613,000 tons, a decrease of 24,000 tons from Monday [11] Nickel - On November 20, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 116,000 - 120,400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 118,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 600 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 4,000 - 4,200 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 4,100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowinning nickel was 0 - 500 yuan/ton [12] Related Charts Copper - The report includes charts on copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper inventory and cancellation warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [13][14][15] Aluminum - There are charts on aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, SHFE - LME ratio, and aluminum bar inventory [26][28][30][32] Nickel - Charts cover nickel basis, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [37][40][43][47]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content was found in the provided text. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated weakly, with domestic refined copper spot imports remaining at a loss. The market has reduced its bets on a December interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Fundamentally, downstream acceptance of high copper prices has increased, and demand is slowly recovering. However, the instability of domestic and international stock markets has dampened confidence in a significant rise in copper prices. The overall global visible inventory is still in a state of accumulation, approaching recent high levels, and the high copper prices have shown a suppressive effect on terminal copper use. Without unexpected events, copper prices are expected to show a high - level oscillating trend, with volatility likely to remain at a low level [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, alumina and Shanghai aluminum fluctuated weakly, while aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly. The alumina futures market has shown a narrow - range correction. With the improvement of the macro - sentiment, the market has been driven by long - position funds. However, due to fundamental support and environmental protection restrictions in the north, high prices have a significant suppressive effect on demand. Aluminum ingot destocking has been continuously hindered, and the proportion of molten aluminum has continued to decline. Aluminum prices continue to be strong but face resistance when rising. Aluminum alloy has more upward momentum, and the price difference between refined and scrap aluminum is expected to narrow [2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel fell slightly, while Shanghai nickel rose. In terms of inventory, both LME and SHFE inventories decreased. The nickel - iron to stainless - steel industrial chain is showing a weakening trend, with the stainless - steel market being sluggish. In the new energy industrial chain, the raw material supply is tight, but the production of ternary precursors in November decreased month - on - month. The inventory pressure of primary nickel is becoming apparent, and nickel prices are still running weakly, but attention should be paid to macro - disturbances and overseas industrial policy adjustments [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - **Copper**: The US Department of Labor will not release the October non - farm payroll report, and the November report will be postponed. The Fed is divided on a December interest rate cut but almost unanimously agrees to end balance - sheet reduction. Copper demand is slowly recovering, but inventory accumulation and high prices may restrict future price increases. Without unexpected events, copper prices will oscillate at a high level with low volatility [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy have different trends. The alumina futures market has a narrow - range correction. The macro - sentiment is warming, but high prices suppress demand. Aluminum ingot destocking is difficult, and the proportion of molten aluminum is decreasing. Aluminum alloy has more upward momentum [2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel fell slightly, and Shanghai nickel rose. Inventory decreased, the nickel - iron to stainless - steel industrial chain is weak, and the new energy industrial chain has raw material supply tightness. Primary nickel inventory pressure is high, and nickel prices are weak [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On November 19, 2025, the price of flat - water copper increased by 115 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2522 tons, and social inventory increased by 0.3 million tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: On November 19, 2025, the Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum prices increased. SHFE total inventory increased by 1564 tons, and electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 2.5 million tons [4]. - **Nickel**: On November 19, 2025, the price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 750 yuan/ton. SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 793 tons, and social nickel inventory increased by 3981 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: On November 19, 2025, the main settlement price increased by 0.3%. LME inventory remained unchanged, and social inventory increased by 0.13 million tons [6]. - **Tin**: On November 19, 2025, the main settlement price increased by 0.8%. SHFE inventory increased by 266 tons [6]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium and Discount**: There are charts showing the spot premium and discount trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][10][11]. - **SHFE Near - and Far - Month Spread**: There are charts showing the near - and far - month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][18][22]. - **LME Inventory**: There are charts showing the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [24][26][28]. - **SHFE Inventory**: There are charts showing the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [30][32][34]. - **Social Inventory**: There are charts showing the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series steel from 2019 - 2025 [36][38][40]. - **Smelting Profit**: There are charts showing the trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [43][45][47]. 4. Introduction of the Non - Ferrous Metals Team - Zhan Dapeng: A master of science, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher of precious metals, a junior investment analyst of gold, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. He has over a decade of commodity research experience [50]. - Wang Heng: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [50]. - Zhu Xi: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel [51].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Likely to be strong [2] - Zinc: Likely to fluctuate within a range [2] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper: Night trading saw a rise in copper prices. Concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss, but smelting output continues to grow rapidly. Grid investment maintains positive growth, power source investment slows down, automobile production and sales show positive growth, home appliance production scheduling shows negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. An Indonesian mine accident is likely to lead to a global copper supply - demand gap, providing long - term support for copper prices. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2] - Zinc: Night trading saw a decline in zinc prices. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, and concentrate supply is temporarily tight, but smelting output continues to grow. Galvanized sheet inventories are generally at a high level. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is slowing down, automobile production and sales show positive growth, home appliance production shows negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious, and it is likely to fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Copper - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 86,080 yuan/ton; domestic basis: 50 yuan/ton; previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price: 10,803 dollars/ton; LME spot premium/discount: - 33.13 dollars/ton; LME inventory: 140,500 tons; LME inventory daily change: 4,450 tons [2] Aluminum - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 21,525 yuan/ton; domestic basis: - 20 yuan/ton; previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price: 2,815 dollars/ton; LME spot premium/discount: - 32.88 dollars/ton; LME inventory: 548,075 tons; LME inventory daily change: - 2,125 tons [2] Zinc - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 22,420 yuan/ton; domestic basis: 75 yuan/ton; previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price: 2,990 dollars/ton; LME spot premium/discount: 152.14 dollars/ton; LME inventory: 43,525 tons; LME inventory daily change: 3,550 tons [2] Nickel - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 115,650 yuan/ton; domestic basis: - 3,120 yuan/ton; previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price: 14,640 dollars/ton; LME spot premium/discount: - 197.66 dollars/ton; LME inventory: 257,832 tons; LME inventory daily change: 138 tons [2] Lead - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 17,230 yuan/ton; domestic basis: - 140 yuan/ton; previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price: 2,015 dollars/ton; LME spot premium/discount: - 27.39 dollars/ton; LME inventory: 264,800 tons; LME inventory daily change: - 1,325 tons [2] Tin - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 293,370 yuan/ton; domestic basis: - 1,950 yuan/ton; previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price: 36,945 dollars/ton; LME spot premium/discount: 100.00 dollars/ton; LME inventory: 3,055 tons; LME inventory daily change: 0 tons [2]

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 11 月 19 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色反弹 核心观点 沪铜 今日沪铜偏强震荡，持仓量小幅上升，主力期价站上 8.6 万关 口。宏观层面，盘面有所回暖，贵金属反弹明显，有色也呈现反弹 态势。短期市场对美联储鹰派的情绪有所释放，市场或迎来情绪上 的修复。技术上，关注 8.6 万关口支撑。 沪铝 今日沪铝减仓反弹。宏观层面，盘面有所回暖，贵金属反弹明 显，有色也呈现反弹态势。短期市场对美联储鹰派的情绪有所释放， 市场或迎来情绪上的修复。产业层面，随着铝价下跌，成 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices may be on the stronger side. The copper concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss. However, smelting output continues to grow at a high rate. The Indonesian mine accident is likely to lead to a global copper supply - demand gap, providing long - term support for copper prices [2]. - Zinc prices may fluctuate within a range. The zinc concentrate processing fee has declined, and the concentrate supply is temporarily tight, but the smelting output continues to increase. The overall supply - demand difference of zinc is not obvious [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Copper - **Market Situation**: Night - session copper prices closed lower. The concentrate supply is tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point, yet smelting output keeps growing. Grid investment has positive growth, power source investment slows down, automobile production and sales have positive growth, home appliance production scheduling has negative growth, and the real estate market is weak [2]. - **Outlook**: The Indonesian mine accident is likely to turn the global copper supply - demand into a gap, supporting copper prices in the long run. It is necessary to pay attention to the changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand. The strategy direction is that copper may be on the stronger side [2]. 3.2 Zinc - **Market Situation**: Night - session zinc prices closed lower. The zinc concentrate processing fee has dropped, and the concentrate supply is temporarily tight, but the smelting output continues to rise. The galvanized sheet inventory is generally high. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is slowing down, automobile production and sales have positive growth, home appliance production has negative growth, and the real estate market is weak [2]. - **Outlook**: The overall supply - demand difference of zinc is not obvious, and it may fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to pay attention to the changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. 3.3 Market Data | Variety | Domestic Previous - day Futures Closing Price (Yuan/ton) | Domestic Basis (Yuan/ton) | Previous - day LME 3 - month Futures Closing Price (US dollars/ton) | LME Spot Premium/Discount (US dollars/ton) | LME Inventory (tons) | LME Inventory Daily Change (tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 86,330 | 20 | 10,767 | - 32.62 | 135,725 | - 450 | | Aluminum | 21,585 | - 20 | 2,806 | - 38.42 | 552,375 | - 825 | | Zinc | 22,455 | 25 | 2,990 | 104.97 | 38,975 | 1,175 | | Nickel | 116,650 | - 3,200 | 14,675 | - 203.57 | 252,090 | 120 | | Lead | 17,270 | - 190 | 2,039 | - 16.88 | 222,475 | - 1,500 | | Tin | 290,300 | 2,640 | 36,900 | - 75.00 | 3,065 | 10 | [2]

| | 操作评级 | 2025年11月17日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | な女女 | 肖静 首席分析师 | | 铝 | ななな | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 氧化铝 | なな女 | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 铸造铝合金 文文文 | | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 锌 | ☆☆☆ | 吴江 高级分析师 | | 铝 | な女女 | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 镇及不锈钢 立☆☆ | | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 锡 | ★☆☆ | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 碳酸锂 | ★☆☆ | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 工业硅 | ななな | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 多晶硅 | 女女女 | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 周四沪铜震荡回7.7万，今日现铜76440元，平水铜咯微贴水85元。SMM社库增加200吨至21.96万吨。隔夜美联储 褐皮书显示通胀持续放缓,强化联储下次25个基点降息的预期,多地联储表示制造业活动下降。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆, indicating a slight bullish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Aluminum: ★★★, representing a clear bullish trend with appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term balance between long and short trends and poor operability, advising to wait and see [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆, with a slight bearish bias and limited operability [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★, showing a clear bullish trend with appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term balance and poor operability [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★, representing a clear bullish trend with appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Tin: ★☆☆, with a slight bearish bias and limited operability [1] Core Views - The market is affected by various factors such as government policies, economic data, and supply - demand relationships. Different metals show different trends and investment opportunities [1][2][3][4][5] Summary by Metal Copper - The Shanghai copper market rebounded this week, but both domestic and foreign copper prices faced resistance at 88,000 yuan and $11,000. The US government ended the shutdown, and the market focused on economic growth. Short - term short positions can be traded against 88,000 yuan, and the copper price is in a volatile state [1] Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum price fell from a high. The short - term fundamentals are stable, and the inventory and spot performance are neutral. The downstream procurement weakened, and the fundamentals deteriorated. The price is under pressure near 17,800 yuan/ton. The consumption expectation may improve in the short term, but the support for high prices is insufficient. Alumina is in a state of oversupply and is weakly operating [2][3] Zinc - The Fed officials' hawkish remarks led to a decline in the zinc price. The LME zinc inventory increased slightly, and the SMM zinc social inventory decreased. The domestic smelter profit is under pressure, and some smelters have cut production. The support for the decline of Shanghai zinc is seen at the 20 - day moving average [2] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The decline of Shanghai nickel accelerated. The nickel industry chain is in an overall over - supply situation. The mainstream stainless steel mills cancelled the price limit and lowered the price. The market is sluggish, and the nickel price is weakly operating [4] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate price is in a high - level shock. The downstream battery orders increased, and the total inventory decreased. The ore price strengthened again. It is expected to be in a slightly strong shock in the short term [5] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures weakened slightly. The supply decreased during the dry season in the southwest, but the demand was dragged down. The short - term market is under pressure at a high level and continues to fluctuate [5] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures rose slightly, and the trading volume decreased. The photovoltaic terminal demand is weak, and the supply - demand improvement is limited. The market is driven by policy expectations and continues to fluctuate in the short term [5] Tin - The Shanghai tin price gave back yesterday's gains. The market follows the sector sentiment, and the mid - long - term short positions can be held against 295,000 yuan [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Aluminum: ★★★, suggesting a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Alumina: ★★★, showing a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★★★, representing a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆, meaning a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Tin: ★★★, suggesting a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★, showing a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★, representing a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Report's Core Views - The overall sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market is affected by factors such as the US government's end of the shutdown, expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut, and industry - specific supply - demand and policy situations. Different metals show various price trends and investment opportunities [2][3][5] Summary by Metal Copper - On Thursday, the non - ferrous metals sector showed a rising trend with increased positions. The short - term prices of Shanghai copper and LME copper tested RMB 88,000 and $11,000 respectively. The SMM social inventory increased by 5,200 tons to 201,100 tons this week, and the spot copper price rose to RMB 87,210. The Shanghai copper still had a premium of RMB 50. Short - term attention should be paid to the performance at the upper integer levels [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum continued to rise with increased positions. The spot premiums and discounts in East, Central, and South China showed little change. The macro environment is positive, and the long - term supply - demand situation in the aluminum market is promising, but the short - term fundamentals are stable. The high point of Shanghai aluminum refreshed a three - year high, and the index increased positions by 30,000 lots to 820,000 lots. The price of Baotai ADC12 spot increased by RMB 100 to RMB 21,100. Alumina has an oversupply situation, and its price is expected to be weak with limited rebound space [2] Zinc - The external market remained strong, and the export window for zinc ingots opened. The domestic smelters' production cuts are gradually being implemented, and the spot in East China is tight. The SMM zinc social inventory decreased by 800 tons to 157,900 tons. The price difference between the internal and external markets has limited room for further expansion. The short - term rebound of Shanghai zinc is expected to reach RMB 23,200/ton [3] Aluminum - The new national standard for electric two - wheeled vehicles will be fully implemented on December 1st, which is expected to improve the consumption of lead - acid batteries. The domestic aluminum spot is tight, and there may be hoarding by traders. The SMM aluminum social inventory continued to rise to 34,900 tons, and the futures - spot price difference widened. The price of Shanghai aluminum may face pressure at RMB 17,800/ton, but it is expected to break through the upper space, with the fourth - quarter high expected to reach RMB 18,200 - 18,500/ton [5] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel declined slightly, and the trading was active with increasing positions. The nickel industry chain was affected by overall overcapacity and showed a dull performance. The mainstream stainless - steel mills cancelled price limits and then lowered the stainless - steel prices. The market was sluggish, and the trading volume was low. The pure nickel inventory increased by 1,000 tons to 49,100 tons, the nickel - iron inventory increased by 500 tons to 29,600 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased by 1,300 tons to 946,000 tons. The nickel price is expected to be weak [6] Tin - The weighted price of Shanghai tin touched the RMB 600,000 integer level, and the trading was active. The spot tin price rose to RMB 296,000, and the real - time discount to the delivery month widened to RMB 1,250. The short - term price may test the integer level again. From a fundamental perspective, a short - long and long - short strategy or the allocation of out - of - the - money call options is recommended [7] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate fluctuated at a high level, and the trading was active. The downstream battery factory orders increased due to the progress of pure - electric heavy - truck projects, the peak sales season of traditional vehicles, and the high demand for energy - storage batteries. The market inventory decreased by 3,400 tons to 124,000 tons. The short - term trend is expected to be strong with a fluctuating pattern [8] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures declined in the late trading, giving back the intraday gains. The expected production cuts and price increases of silicone monomer enterprises may drag down the demand for industrial silicon. The monthly production of industrial silicon is restricted by the dry season, and the production of downstream polysilicon has also significantly decreased. The short - term price is expected to weaken [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures continued to rise, closing above RMB 54,000/ton. The disclosure of the significant achievements in the self - discipline of the photovoltaic industry by the National Energy Administration boosted market sentiment. The supply - demand situation has limited marginal improvement, but the industry has a strong willingness to support prices. The short - term spot price is expected to be stable, and the futures price will continue to fluctuate [10]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪铜**: Today, Shanghai copper first declined and then rose, recovering the overnight high at the end of the session, with an increase in open interest. At the macro - level, the market warmed up, and precious metals and non - ferrous metals strengthened collectively. At the industrial level, as copper prices rose, downstream wait - and - see sentiment resurfaced. Sustainable attention can be paid to the pressure at the 88,000 yuan mark [7]. - **沪铝**: Today, Shanghai aluminum maintained a strong upward trend, with continuous increase in open interest. The main contract price of Shanghai aluminum stood above the 22,000 yuan mark, breaking through the high in May 2024. At the macro - level, the market may be trading on demand recovery or inflation expectations, and non - ferrous metals and precious metals generally rose. At the industrial level, the spot discounts of both Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum continued to decline, indicating that although inventories are currently low, spot goods are not in short supply. In the short term, aluminum prices broke through the 2024 high, showing strong upward momentum [8]. - **沪镍**: Today, Shanghai nickel fluctuated, with little change in open interest. Recently, while the non - ferrous sector was running strongly, nickel prices weakened against the trend, largely reflecting the weakness of the fundamentals. At the industrial level, as nickel prices weakened, the spot premium strengthened, providing some support for the futures price. Technically, attention can be paid to the long - short game at the 119,000 yuan mark [9]. 3. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On November 13th, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory was 198,000 tons, a decrease of 300 tons from Monday. SMM reported that the weekly operating rate of the enameled wire industry's machines rebounded 0.87 percentage points to 77.2%. Benefiting from the decline of copper prices to around 85,000 yuan/ton last week, the increase in new orders drove up the operating rate [11]. - **Aluminum**: On November 13th, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 614,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from Monday [11]. - **Nickel**: On November 13th, the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2512 contract. The mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +3,800 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,620 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Russian nickel was +650 yuan/ton, with a price of 119,470 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Norwegian nickel was +2,450 yuan/ton, with a price of 121,270 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of nickel beans was +2,350 yuan/ton, with a price of 121,170 yuan/ton [12]. 4. Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts such as domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [13][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: The related charts involve aluminum basis, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, SHFE - LME ratio, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), and aluminum rod inventory [24][26][28]. - **Nickel**: The charts cover nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [36][37][39].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term bullish, short - term with limited driving force, long - term strategic allocation value remains unchanged, ★★ [1] - Silver: Bullish, strong support at 12000, long - term hold, ★★ [1] - Copper: Long - term hold, recommend buying on dips near the moving average, ★ [1] - Zinc: Rebound, short - term narrow - range oscillation, long - term supply increase and demand decrease, short on rebounds, ★ [1] - Lead: Rebound, short - term price rebound, ★ [1] - Tin: Bullish, short - term price spike, ★★ [1] - Aluminum: Bullish, short - term price spike, ★★ [1] - Nickel: Bearish, price relatively weak, ★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: Range - bound, ★ [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish, buy at the lower end of the range, ★ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: High - level operation, take profit near the previous high, wait for low - buying opportunities, ★ [1] Core Views - The end of the US government shutdown, weak employment data expectations, and a weaker US dollar lead to a rise in market risk appetite, with precious metals and the non - ferrous sector showing positive sentiment. However, different metals have different supply - demand situations and price trends [1][7][11] - Gold and silver are supported by factors such as potential interest rate cuts and central bank purchases, with long - term strategic investment value [1][4] - Copper is expected to have a long - term upward trend due to tight copper concentrate supply and growing green copper demand [1][6][7] - Zinc has short - term supply - demand weakness, with inventory accumulation both at home and abroad, and a long - term trend of supply increase and demand decrease [1][10][11] - Aluminum is affected by overseas production cuts and inventory changes, with short - term price increases [1][14][15] - Nickel has weak terminal demand, with inventory accumulation and a relatively weak price trend [1][18][19] - Lithium carbonate has a tight supply - demand situation, with continuous inventory reduction, but there are also factors that may limit price increases [1][22][23] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Weak US data intensifies December interest rate cut predictions, and the market amplifies unexpected data, leading to strong performance of precious metals [2] - **Basic Logic**: The 43 - day US government shutdown is approaching an end, which may reduce Q4 economic growth. There are signs of widespread inflation slowdown, and the housing rental market is weak. China's central bank has continuously increased its gold reserves. In the long term, gold may benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and geopolitical restructuring [3][4] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, domestic gold has support at 935, and silver has strong support at 12000. Long - term value - oriented positions should be held [4] Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper oscillates upward [5][6] - **Industrial Logic**: In Q3 2025, the output of major global copper mines decreased by nearly 5% year - on - year, and the decline is expected to continue in Q4. Refined copper supply has shrunk. Consumption has entered the off - season, and the downstream start - up rate is weak year - on - year. Copper has been included in the US key minerals list [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: With the end of the US government shutdown, the market risk appetite has increased. Copper is expected to be bullish in the long term. It is recommended to buy on dips near the moving average with light positions. Long - term strategic positions should be held. The short - term trading range for Shanghai copper is [85000, 88000] yuan/ton, and for London copper is [10500, 11000] US dollars/ton [7] Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc rebounds after testing the support at 22500 [9][10] - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas zinc mine production has declined recently, leading to a short - term tightening of zinc concentrate supply. The processing fee for domestic zinc concentrate has continued to decline. Consumption is entering the off - season, and the galvanizing start - up rate has decreased. The zinc ingot export window has opened, and inventories at home and abroad have accumulated [10] - **Strategy Recommendation**: With the end of the US government shutdown, the market risk appetite has recovered, but zinc demand is weak. It is recommended to take profit on long positions on rebounds. In the long term, short on rebounds. The trading range for Shanghai zinc is [22400, 22800] yuan/ton, and for London zinc is [3000, 3100] US dollars/ton [11] Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices rise and then fall, and alumina shows a relatively weak trend [12][13] - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas, the expectation of an end - of - year interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has weakened. There have been production cuts at overseas electrolytic aluminum plants, and it is expected that there will be further cuts in March next year. Domestic aluminum downstream processing start - up rates are decreasing. The alumina market is currently in an oversupply situation, but there may be some support from production cuts by high - cost enterprises [14] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profit on Shanghai aluminum positions on short - term rallies. Pay attention to the start - up changes of downstream processing enterprises. The main operating range is [21000 - 21900] yuan/ton [15] Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices continue to decline, and stainless steel shows a weak trend [16][17] - **Industrial Logic**: The expectation of an end - of - year interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has weakened overseas. The inventory of nickel mines at domestic ports has decreased, but global nickel inventory has continued to accumulate. The stainless steel market is approaching the end of the peak season, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel. Pay attention to downstream consumption and stainless steel inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [118500 - 121000] yuan/ton [19] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2601 opens slightly higher, rises and then falls, with wide - range oscillations throughout the day [20][21] - **Industrial Logic**: The supply - demand situation remains tight, with continuous inventory reduction for 12 weeks and an expanding reduction amplitude. Domestic production has reached new highs, and imports are expected to increase in November. The terminal market is strong, but there are factors that may limit price increases [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on long positions near the previous high [85000 - 86600] [23]