Group 1: Report Summary - The report provides daily data briefings on non - ferrous metals and precious metals on August 12, 2025, including gold, silver, copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, and tin [1] Group 2: Gold (AU) - The closing price of SHFE gold主力 contract was 776.04 yuan/gram on July 15, 2025, with a change of - 3.44 yuan compared to the previous day, - 3.44 yuan compared to the day before, and - 4.36 yuan compared to last week [1] - The closing price of COMEX gold主力 contract was 3393.70 dollars/ounce, down 34.90 dollars from the previous day, 64.50 dollars from the day before, and up 63.20 dollars from last week [1] - The London gold spot price was 3395.63 dollars/ounce, unchanged from the previous day and up 26.08 dollars from last week [1] Group 3: Silver (AG) - The closing price of SHFE silver主力 contract was 9187 yuan/kilogram on August 12, 2025, down 23 yuan from the previous day, up 112 yuan from last month, and down 38 yuan from the day before [1] - The closing price of COMEX silver主力 contract was 37.65 dollars/ounce, down 0.19 dollars from last week, down 0.86 dollars from last month, and down 0.34 dollars from the previous day [1] - The London silver spot price was 38.29 dollars/ounce, unchanged from the previous day, down 0.71 dollars from last week, and up 1.14 dollars from last month [1] Group 4: Copper (CU, BC) - The closing price of SHFE copper (CU)主力 contract was 79020 yuan/ton on August 12, 2025, up 930 yuan from last week, up 440 yuan from last month, and unchanged from the previous day [1] - LME copper 3M closing price (15:00) was 9770.50 dollars/ton, up 4.50 dollars from the previous day, up 46.00 dollars from last week, and up 124.50 dollars from last month [1] - LME copper仓单 inventory was 155700 tons, down 150 tons from the previous day, up 16125 tons from last week, and up 46075 tons from last month [1] Group 5: Aluminum and Alumina (AL, AO) - The closing price of SHFE aluminum (AL)主力 contract was 20735 yuan/ton on August 12, 2025, up 35 yuan from the previous day, up 175 yuan from last week, and up 305 yuan from last month [1] - The closing price of alumina (AO)主力 contract was 81 yuan/ton, down 143 yuan from last week and down 3308 yuan from last month [1] - LME aluminum 3M closing price (15:00) was 2605.00 dollars/ton, down 12.00 dollars from the previous day, up 12.50 dollars from last week, and up 31.00 dollars from last month [1] Group 6: Zinc (ZN) - The closing price of SHFE zinc (ZN)主力 contract was 22630 yuan/ton on August 12, 2025, up 250 yuan from last week, up 545 yuan from last month, and up 40 yuan from the previous day [1] - LME zinc 3M closing price (15:00) was 2829 dollars/ton, up 57 dollars from last week, up 118 dollars from last month, and down 11 dollars from the previous day [1] - LME zinc仓单 inventory was 79550 tons, down 875 tons from the previous day, down 9675 tons from last week, and down 41800 tons from last month [1] Group 7: Lead (PB) - The closing price of SHFE lead (PB)主力 contract was 16915 yuan/ton on August 12, 2025, up 30 yuan from last week, up 140 yuan from last month, and down 15 yuan from the previous day [1] - LME lead 3M closing price (15:00) was 2005.00 dollars/ton, down 5.00 dollars from the previous day, up 37.00 dollars from last week, and up 16.50 dollars from last month [1] - LME lead仓单 inventory was 262250 tons, down 3550 tons from the previous day, down 6350 tons from last week, and down 6975 tons from last month [1] Group 8: Nickel and Stainless Steel (NI, SS) - The closing price of SHFE nickel (NI)主力 contract was 122440 yuan/ton on August 12, 2025, up 1530 yuan from the previous day, up 3060 yuan from last week, and up 310 yuan from last month [1] - The closing price of stainless steel (SS)主力 contract was 13200 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan from the previous day, up 240 yuan from last week, and up 505 yuan from last month [1] - LME nickel 3M closing price (15:00) was 15295 dollars/ton, up 40 dollars from the previous day, up 285 dollars from last week, and up 180 dollars from last month [1] Group 9: Tin (SN) - The closing price of SHFE tin (SN)主力 contract was 270200 yuan/ton on August 12, 2025, up 2710 yuan from the previous day, up 6960 yuan from last week, and up 1820 yuan from last month [1] - LME tin 3M closing price (15:00) was 33790 dollars/ton, up 50 dollars from the previous day, up 440 dollars from last week, and up 480 dollars from last month [1] - LME tin仓单 inventory was - 125 tons, down 230 tons from the previous day, up 1750 tons from last week, and up 40 tons from last month [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Dachen Nonferrous ETF (159980.SZ) is experiencing upward momentum, supported by positive trends in the underlying nonferrous metal index and significant capital inflows, indicating a bullish outlook for the sector [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of August 12, 11:15, the Dachen Nonferrous ETF (159980.SZ) increased by 0.18% [1]. - The underlying index, the Nonferrous Metal Index (IMCI.SHF), has established a bullish trend on both daily and weekly levels [1]. - The ETF's latest scale reached 1.207 billion yuan, marking a three-month high [1]. Group 2: Capital Inflows - As of August 11, the Dachen Nonferrous ETF (159980.SZ) saw net capital inflows in 4 out of the last 5 trading days, totaling 79.6212 million yuan [1]. Group 3: Economic Context - Citic Construction Investment Securities noted that poor economic and employment data from the U.S., along with the nomination of a new Federal Reserve governor by Trump, has strengthened market expectations for a rate cut in September [1]. - The ongoing domestic "anti-involution" policy aims to optimize production factors, enhancing profitability across various sectors and improving market expectations, which is favorable for the transmission of rising metal prices to downstream industries [1]. - The valuation of the industrial metals sector is currently low, suggesting potential for upward correction [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bias towards a certain direction but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Aluminum: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer multi/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Alumina: ★★★ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★★★ [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆ (White star, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term multi/short trend and poor operability on the trading floor, for observation only) [1] - Lead: ☆☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★★☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The market shows different trends and investment opportunities for various non - ferrous metals. For each metal, factors such as macro - economy, supply - demand relationship, and inventory levels are considered to make investment suggestions [1][2][3] Summary by Metals Copper - Friday saw Shanghai copper continue to show a fluctuating positive line. The current copper price is 78,530 yuan, with a premium of 120 yuan in Shanghai and a discount of 40 yuan in Guangdong. The copper market trading is dull, and it has basically been operating near the MA60 moving average this week. The market is not strongly affected by the new round of US tariffs and mainly tracks macro - economic indicators. The number of initial jobless claims in the US soared last week. Hold previous short positions [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum fluctuates in a narrow range, and the spot discount in East China remains at 50 yuan. Consumption is in the off - season recently, but the output of aluminum rods has increased month - on - month. The peak of aluminum ingot social inventory may appear in August. Shanghai aluminum will mainly fluctuate in the short term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuations of Shanghai aluminum, and the Baotai spot quotation remains flat at 19,800 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the profit of the aluminum alloy industry is poor, but it has certain toughness relative to the aluminum price. Pay attention to the possible narrowing of the spread between the spot and AL. The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, the total industry inventory has increased, and the balance is in a surplus state. The price of bauxite in Guinea is firm during the rainy season, corresponding to a cost of 3000 - 3100 yuan in Shanxi and Henan in China. Alumina is under pressure to fluctuate, but the downward space is also relatively limited [2] Zinc - The expiration date of the main contract falls in the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The expectations of domestic fiscal policy and the Fed's interest rate cut are relatively positive, and there is insufficient resonance between the macro - situation and the fundamental situation of increasing supply and weak demand. The weighted position of Shanghai zinc has dropped to 209,000 lots, and the capital congestion has significantly declined. Fundamentally, it is strong overseas and weak at home. The rebound of LME zinc drives the domestic market, but the downstream's willingness to take delivery at high prices is insufficient. The zinc price rebound is regarded as under pressure. Wait for the opportunity to short - allocate above 23,500 yuan/ton [3] Lead - The lead price fluctuates at a low level, and the capital trading is relatively light. It is difficult to purchase waste batteries at low prices, and the recycled lead producers are reluctant to sell due to losses. The refined - scrap price difference is 25 yuan/ton. The downstream's willingness to take delivery is poor, and the rigid demand tends to purchase primary lead with higher cost - effectiveness. There are limited short - term contradictions in the lead market. The overall supply of lead ingots in August is expected to increase month - on - month. Some primary lead smelters have regular maintenance plans from the end of August to the beginning of September. The peak - season consumption still needs to be verified by social inventory. Wait for the evolution of contradictions. Shanghai lead is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,600 - 17,500 yuan/ton [5] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounds, and the market trading is active. As the domestic anti - involution theme comes to an end, nickel with relatively poor fundamentals will accelerate its return to fundamentals. The premium of Jinchuan nickel is 2350 yuan, the premium of imported nickel is 350 yuan, and the premium of electrowon nickel is 50 yuan. The price of high - nickel iron is quoted at 915.6 yuan per nickel point, and the upstream price support has significantly weakened recently. In terms of inventory, the nickel - iron inventory remains basically flat at 33,000 tons, the pure nickel inventory has decreased by 1000 tons to 39,000 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory has decreased by 1000 tons to 966,000 tons, but the overall level is still high. Pay attention to the signs of the end of de - stocking. Shanghai nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of the rebound, and actively intervene in short positions [6] Tin - Shanghai tin fluctuates and closes with a negative line at 268,000 yuan, and the current tin price is reported at 268,000 yuan, with a real - time premium of 170 yuan over the delivery month. The overseas tin price is supported by low visible inventory and the decline in Indonesia's production in the first half of the year. In China, pay attention to the changes in high social inventory under the game between the major smelters' maintenance plans and weak consumption. Observe or choose the opportunity for short - term long positions [7] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate rebounds with increasing volume, and the market trading is active. The price structure shows weakness in the near - term contracts, and the spot price is quoted at 72,000 yuan. The downstream's inquiry behavior is active, and the spot market trading has improved. The total market inventory has slightly decreased to 142,000 tons, the smelter inventory has decreased by 3000 tons to 52,000 tons, the downstream inventory has increased by 3000 tons to 46,000 tons, and the trader inventory has decreased by 1000 tons to 44,000 tons. The transfer of cargo rights is obvious, and the downstream has increased the intensity of replenishment during the price correction. The latest quotation of Australian ore is 745 US dollars, which has significantly followed the decline of the lithium carbonate price. The smelting output has decreased by 8% week - on - week. After the significant rebound of the lithium carbonate futures price, the game value has decreased. Look for high - level short - selling positions [8] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon closes slightly higher, and the spot - end manufacturers' quotations remain stable. Currently, the market supply pressure is still significant. It is expected that the output in August will increase by 21,700 - 31,700 tons month - on - month. Among them, the operating rates in Sichuan and Yunnan are continuously increasing, and large - scale factories in Xinjiang also have复产 arrangements. Although both polysilicon and organic silicon downstream have production - increasing expectations, the expected increment is still less than that of industrial silicon. There are still policy expectations, and combined with the large decline in the previous disk, it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures touched above 49,000 yuan/ton during the day and then rebounded, closing in the positive territory at the end of the session. In the spot market, the average price of polysilicon multi - product feedstock remains stable at 47,000 yuan/ton (SMM). The upward pressure is large, the downstream component price has decreased, and the terminal still resists high prices. Overall, there are still policy expectations, the spot price increase has slowed down, and the trend may maintain range - bound fluctuations [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper rose and then fell, down 0.04% to $9,670.5/ton; SHFE copper fell 0.03% to CNY 78,360/ton. The domestic spot import remained in a loss, but the loss narrowed. With weak overseas economic data and concerns about overseas demand, copper prices were generally weak. However, the expectation of the peak season in September would limit the decline [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina,沪铝, and aluminum alloy all trended weakly. The relaxation of Guinea's aluminum ore export policy and the return of mining rights increased supply expectations. With the new production of alumina in Hebei and Guangxi and the impact of Indonesian imports, the pressure of alumina surplus increased. The production of electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan continued to rise, and inventory accumulation might continue, putting downward pressure on aluminum prices [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight LME nickel fell 0.1% to $15,115/ton, and SHFE nickel fell 0.14% to CNY 121,180/ton. In the short term, nickel and stainless - steel prices were affected by market sentiment and weakened. Fundamentally, there were support from ferronickel and intermediate product prices below and demand suppression above, showing a volatile trend [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: The market focused on tariff negotiations between the US and other economies. There were concerns about US debt. Domestically, policies and anti - involution expectations were important trading considerations. LME copper inventory decreased by 125 tons, Comex copper increased by 174 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 201 tons. During the off - season, terminal orders were insufficient, and processing plants' procurement was just for刚需 [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina futures AO2509 closed at CNY 3,170/ton, down 2.28%, with an increase in positions.沪铝 AL2509 closed at CNY 20,670/ton, down 0.46%, with a decrease in positions. The spot price of alumina fell, and the spot discount of aluminum ingots widened. The processing fees of some aluminum products changed [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel inventory decreased by 240 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 102 tons. The price of ferronickel increased, and the social inventory of stainless steel decreased for four consecutive weeks, but the de - stocking speed slowed down. The domestic inventory of primary nickel decreased slightly, and the output in August was expected to increase by 2% to 33,000 tons [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On August 7, 2025, the price of flat - copper rose by CNY 155 to CNY 78,470/ton, and the premium rose by CNY 15. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong rose by CNY 100 to CNY 73,100/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 125 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 201 tons [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River increased by CNY 10 to CNY 16,850/ton. LME lead inventory increased by 800 tons, and the weekly inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 29 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The Wuxi and Nanhai quotes increased. The spot premium decreased by CNY 10 to - CNY 50/ton. LME aluminum inventory increased by 1,575 tons, and the weekly inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 1,737 tons. The alumina inventory increased by 39,000 tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by CNY 50 to CNY 123,250/ton. LME nickel inventory decreased by 240 tons, and SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 102 tons. The weekly nickel inventory increased by 299 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The main contract settlement price rose by 0.9% to CNY 22,530/ton. The weekly inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 793 tons, and LME zinc inventory decreased by 4,275 tons. The social inventory increased by 0.41 million tons [5]. - **Tin**: The main contract settlement price rose by 0.3% to CNY 267,530/ton. LME tin inventory increased by 15 tons, and the weekly inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 254 tons [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][12]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][17][19]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin on the LME from 2019 - 2025 [21][23][25]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin on the SHFE from 2019 - 2025 [28][30][32]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts illustrate the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [34][36][38]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts display the trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, ferronickel smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [41][43][45]. 3.4 Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher in precious metals, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily & Securities Times. He has over a decade of commodity research experience [48]. - **Wang Heng**: A finance master from the University of Adelaide, Australia, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [48]. - **Zhu Xi**: A science master from the University of Warwick, UK, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel [49].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Analyze the lead - zinc market from a global macro perspective, exploring the relationship between macro factors and lead - zinc, and the impact of "anti - involution" and fiscal policies on lead - zinc prices [1][6] - There are signs of endogenous kinetic energy repair, including the possible start of an active inventory replenishment cycle and improvement in PMI [36][39] - The central price of lead - zinc is related to GDP growth and industrial added - value [42][44] 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Macro and Lead - Zinc Relationship - In terms of macro - attributes, the order is gold > copper > aluminum > zinc > lead, and lead has a very weak macro - attribute [4] - Analyze the relationship between lead - zinc and coal, copper, and use coal to understand "anti - involution" and copper to understand global fiscal policies [6] 3.2 "Anti - Involution" and Lead - Zinc Price Performance - Historically, during "supply - side reforms", lead - zinc often rose together with stocks and commodities. It is necessary to analyze the intensity of the current "anti - involution" [9] - From 2010 to 2025, lead and zinc prices showed different percentage changes during different "anti - involution" periods. For example, from 2016 - 2017, lead rose 141.6% and zinc rose 212.9%, while since July 2025, lead decreased 3.1% and zinc increased 2.2% [11] 3.3 Reasons for "Anti - Involution" - "Involution" refers to a vicious competition where economic entities invest a lot of resources without overall revenue growth, and production factor prices deviate from value [15] - The purpose of "anti - involution" is to reverse the situation of "quantity increase and price decrease". In June 2025, CPI increased 0.1% year - on - year, PPI decreased 3.6% year - on - year, and the PPI - CPI gap continued to widen [18] 3.4 Fiscal Policies and Lead - Zinc Market - Fiscal policies are crucial as high resident and enterprise leverage ratios make fiscal policies determine the economic performance differences among countries. For example, China's exports are related to fiscal policies [30] - China's fiscal policy is continuously strengthening, and the US is also implementing fiscal expansion. Global major countries are all conducting fiscal expansion [33][34] 3.5 Endogenous Kinetic Energy Repair - There are signs of an active inventory replenishment cycle (profit increase and inventory increase), and PPI and industrial enterprise profits have basically bottomed out [38] - From the perspective of the difference between enterprise and resident deposits, PMI is expected to improve after the third quarter [41] 3.6 Determinants of Lead - Zinc Central Price - The IMF has raised this year's GDP growth forecast to 3% and predicts a slight recovery of global economic growth in 2025, which is related to the central price of lead - zinc [42] - Industrial added - value provides a more accurate perspective for determining the central price of lead - zinc [44]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Today, Shanghai copper maintained a volatile trend with a slight decline in open interest. The continuous decline of the US dollar index and a positive domestic atmosphere are favorable for copper prices. On the industrial side, on August 7th, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory was 133,300 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons from last week. With the domestic market warming up again, copper prices may continue to rise [5]. - **Aluminum**: Last night, aluminum prices opened higher and maintained a strong and volatile consolidation during the day, with open interest continuously increasing. The domestic atmosphere has warmed up, and since aluminum has a strong domestic pricing power, its price has risen significantly. However, it is the off - season for downstream demand, aluminum rods are in a state of inventory accumulation, and electrolytic aluminum has also seen inventory build - up. Despite the bearish industrial situation, the positive macro environment is expected to drive the futures price to run strongly. Attention should be paid to the resistance at the July high [6]. - **Nickel**: Today, nickel prices rose with a reduction in positions, and the main contract price of Shanghai nickel approached the 122,000 yuan mark. The positive domestic atmosphere recently has led to a strengthening of nickel prices, and there is a strong willingness among previous short - sellers to close their positions. The downstream stainless - steel industry is operating strongly. Technically, attention should be paid to the resistance at the 122,000 yuan mark [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Dynamics - **Copper**: On August 7th, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper in the domestic market was 133,300 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons from the 31st and a decrease of 1,000 tons from the 4th [9]. - **Aluminum**: On August 7th, the spot inventory of electrolytic aluminum in the domestic market was 549,000 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons from the 31st and an increase of 2,000 tons from the 4th [10]. - **Nickel**: On August 7th, the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2509 contract. The mainstream premium for Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,250 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,170 yuan/ton; for Russian nickel, it was +500 yuan/ton, with a price of 121,420 yuan/ton; for Norwegian nickel, it was +3,300 yuan/ton, with a price of 124,220 yuan/ton; and for nickel beans, it was +2,550 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,470 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Relevant Charts 3.2.1 Copper - Charts include copper basis, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, copper month - spread, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][14][15]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum month - spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, alumina trend, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), and alumina inventory [26][31][27]. 3.2.3 Nickel - Charts include nickel basis, LME nickel cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, nickel month - spread, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [38][41][42].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on August 6, 2025 [1][4][5] Summary by Directory Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On August 6, 2025, the domestic spot price was 78,625, the LME spot price was 9,647, and the spot import equilibrium ratio was 8.17 with a profit of - 172.87. The domestic three - month price was 78,580, the LME three - month price was 9,715, and the ratio was 8.08 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22,310, the LME spot price was 2,759, and the spot import equilibrium ratio was 8.67 with a profit of - 1,611.98. The domestic three - month price was 22,390, the LME three - month price was 2,773, and the ratio was 6.01 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 20,520, the LME spot price was 2,574, and the spot import equilibrium ratio was 8.50 with a profit of - 1,350.12. The domestic and LME three - month prices were both 20,530 and 2,574 respectively, and the ratio was 7.97 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 120,000, the LME spot price was 14,909, and the spot import equilibrium ratio was 8.26 with a profit of - 2,154.23 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16,525, the LME spot price was 1,927, and the spot import equilibrium ratio was 8.87 with a profit of - 486.97. The domestic three - month price was 16,770, the LME three - month price was 1,969, and the ratio was 11.34 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On August 6, 2025, the spreads between the next month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot month were 230, 230, 210, and 160 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 494, 886, 1286, and 1687 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 120, 130, 125, and 110 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 214, 335, 455, and 575 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 15, - 45, - 85, and - 145 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 214, 329, 444, and 559 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 75, 70, 95, and 135 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 209, 313, 418, and 522 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were 420, 570, 740, and 980 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was - 810, and the theoretical spread was 5552 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were - 245 and - 15 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 172 and 641 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 50 and 70 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 119 and 249 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 175 and 250 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 135 and 245 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On August 6, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous) were 3.51, 3.83, 4.69, 0.92, 1.22, and 0.75 respectively, and for LME (three - continuous) were 3.49, 3.76, 4.88, 0.93, 1.30, and 0.72 respectively [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish/bearish trend with a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term equilibrium in the multi/short trend and poor operability on the trading floor, advising to wait and see [1] - Alumina: ★☆☆, with a slightly bullish/bearish trend and a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆, showing a slightly bullish/bearish trend with a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Lead: Not explicitly rated in the content [5] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Not explicitly rated in a standardized way but with analysis indicating market trends [6] - Tin: ★☆☆, having a slightly bullish/bearish trend with a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★, representing a clearer multi/short trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★, indicating a clearer multi/short trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Polysilicon: Not explicitly rated in a standardized way but with analysis on market trends [10] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals, including price trends, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on different metal characteristics [1][2][3] Summary by Metal Categories Copper - Shanghai copper closed slightly up on Tuesday. The spot copper was reported at 78,615 yuan, with a premium of 130 yuan in Shanghai and a discount of 55 yuan in Guangdong. LME copper inventories increased to over 150,000 tons. There is a risk of increased supply loss rate in the second half of the year. The resistance of the copper price at the MA40 moving average is strong, and LME copper may decline to $9,500. Hold short positions [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum rebounded slightly. The spot discount in East China was 40 yuan. Aluminum ingot social inventories increased by 20,000 tons. There has been continuous inventory accumulation for two weeks, and the apparent consumption decline in the off - season is significant. The short - term may be under pressure to fluctuate, with support around 20,200 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum. The scrap aluminum market has tight supply, and the profit of aluminum alloy is negative. In the short - term, the price fluctuates, and in the medium - term, it has certain resilience compared to the aluminum price. Recently, the operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, the total industry inventory has increased, and the market is in an oversupply state. In the short - term, alumina fluctuates weakly, but the decline space is relatively limited due to the firm price of bauxite in the overseas rainy season [2] Zinc - The zinc market returns to the fundamental logic of increasing supply and weak demand. Funds continue to reduce positions, and short - selling sentiment is gradually released. Refineries have sufficient raw materials, and supply is expected to increase. The zinc concentrate TC still has room to rebound. The demand seasonality is obvious, and the support for prices is insufficient. However, as the 08 contract enters the delivery month and the 09 and 10 contracts expire during the "Golden September and Silver October" traditional peak season, policy changes need to be monitored. The support for Shanghai zinc is temporarily seen at the 22,000 - yuan integer mark. Wait and see for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [3] Lead - Short - selling sentiment was gradually released, and Shanghai lead rebounded. The SMM1 lead average price was reported at 16,600 yuan/ton. The discount to the 08 contract narrowed to 30 yuan/ton. Lead concentrate supply is in short supply, and some primary lead refineries have regular maintenance plans from late August to early September. Consumption is the key to the rebound of Shanghai lead. The refined lead price remains flat, and the price advantage of recycled lead is almost gone. Downstream buyers prefer to purchase low - priced primary lead. Lead ingot inventories are decreasing, which supports Shanghai lead. In August, the traditional peak season, monitor social inventories to verify the peak - season effect. It is expected that Shanghai lead will fluctuate in the range of 16,600 - 17,500 yuan/ton [5] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded, and market trading was active. The speculation on the anti - involution theme in the domestic market was severely hit, and the theme speculation cooled down rapidly. Nickel, with relatively poor fundamentals, returned to fundamentals more quickly. The inventory of nickel - iron remained basically unchanged at 33,000 tons, the pure nickel inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 39,000 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased by 100 tons to 966,000 tons, but the overall inventory level is still high. Shanghai nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of the rebound. Actively enter short positions [6] Tin - Shanghai tin rose during the session, and the current tin price was 267,000 yuan. The overseas tin market has low inventories, and is supported by the production decline of Indonesia's天马 in the first half of the year. Technically, both domestic and overseas tin prices should pay attention to the support of the MA60 moving average. Hold short positions at high levels [7] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price fluctuated weakly, and market trading contracted. After the price fluctuated repeatedly, the futures - spot lock was unlocked, and a large amount of circulating goods entered the market. Downstream inquiry activities were active, and spot market transactions improved. The total market inventory slightly decreased to 142,000 tons, the refinery inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 52,000 tons, the downstream inventory increased by 3,000 tons to 46,000 tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 44,000 tons. The downstream increased replenishment efforts during the price correction. The latest Australian ore quote was $745, which clearly followed the price decline. The weekly smelting output decreased by 8%. The lithium carbonate futures price has some support after the decline, and it is expected to fluctuate around 70,000 yuan [8] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon futures closed up with fluctuations, driven by the sentiment of relevant photovoltaic export policy expectations. In the spot market, the supply in major producing areas shows marginal increases, while the realization of the demand increase in polysilicon in August is still uncertain. The leading organic silicon monomer plants are still in the process of gradual resumption. The weekly inventory of industrial silicon shows a slight accumulation trend. Currently, the sentiment in the photovoltaic sector has not dissipated, and industrial silicon futures have corrected significantly. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate [9] Polysilicon - The main contract of polysilicon futures rose and then fell at the end of the session, closing above 50,000 yuan/ton, highlighting the divergence between long and short positions. The driving force for the long side comes from the expectation of the adjustment of the export tax rebate for photovoltaic modules. The downstream silicon wafer and battery cell enterprises are expected to slightly revise up their production schedules. The current market highly depends on the implementation rhythm of policies. Given the uncertainty of policy games, consider buying call options [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Copper**: The Shanghai copper futures showed an upward trend with a slight decline in open interest. The market sentiment improved due to the suspension of counter - measures against the US by Europe and the US, leading to an upward trend in the non - ferrous sector. On the industrial side, as copper prices rose, market consumption sentiment weakened, and with the addition of imports, the willingness of holders to sell increased. Technically, the main contract price had technical support at the July low [3]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum futures rebounded with an increase in open interest. The domestic market sentiment improved, and the non - ferrous sector generally rose. In the industrial aspect, it was the off - season for downstream industries, and both aluminum rods and electrolytic aluminum showed inventory accumulation. Technically, the main contract price had technical support at the 40 - day moving average [4]. - **Nickel**: The main contract price of nickel fluctuated narrowly below 121,000 yuan, and the open interest of Shanghai nickel continued to decline. The domestic market sentiment was good, and the non - ferrous sector generally rose. The industrial logic remained unchanged from the previous period, and the prices of ferronickel and nickel sulfate both increased. Technically, the main contract price had technical support at the 120,000 yuan mark [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On August 5, affected by the US tariff increase on copper semi - finished products, some domestic copper processing exports to the US were under pressure. A copper tube enterprise's goods arriving in the US on August 5 were additionally taxed 50%, and the comprehensive tariff for copper tube exports to the US reached 97%. As a result, the US customers' subsequent un - signed orders were suspended. On August 4, the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic copper was 134,300 tons, an increase of 9,300 tons compared to the 28th and 13,000 tons compared to the 31st [7]. - **Aluminum**: On August 5, the total inventory of aluminum rods in Guangdong and Wuxi was 92,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 500 tons. On August 4, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 547,000 tons, an increase of 33,000 tons compared to the 28th and 22,000 tons compared to the 31st [7]. - **Nickel**: On August 5, for the refined nickel Shanghai market's mainstream reference contract, the price of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was 123,290 yuan/ton with a premium of + 2250 yuan/ton; Russian nickel was 121,590 yuan/ton with a premium of + 550 yuan/ton; Norwegian nickel was 124,340 yuan/ton with a premium of + 3300 yuan/ton; and nickel beans were 123,590 yuan/ton with a premium of + 2550 yuan/ton [8]. 2. Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts such as copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [9][11][12] - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts such as aluminum basis, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, and overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum [22][24][26] - **Nickel**: The report includes charts such as nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, and SHFE inventory [35][38][39]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The report presents the average prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals and related products, including copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, nickel, silicon, and lithium carbonate, along with the corresponding升贴水 and their changes [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Copper - SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price is 78,615, with a price increase of 195; SMM flat - water copper升贴水 is 110, down 45 [1]. Aluminum - SMM A00 aluminum average price is 20,520, up 40; SMM A00 aluminum升贴水 is - 40, down 10. Alumina (Shanxi) average price is 3,240, unchanged; Australian alumina FOB average price is 375 dollars, down 2 dollars [1]. Lead - SMM 1 lead ingot average price is 16,600, down 100; SMM 1 lead ingot升贴水 to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 30, up 20. Recycled refined lead average price is 16,600, down 125; the refined - scrap price difference is 0, up 25 [1]. Zinc - SMM 0 zinc ingot average price is 22,300, up 130; SMM 0 zinc ingot升贴水 to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 35, up 20 [1]. Tin - SMM 1 tin average price is 267,000, up 1,200; SMM 1 tin升贴水 to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 550, down 80. 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) average price is 255,000, up 1,200; the ratio of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) to SMM 1 tin is 95.51% [1]. Nickel - 1 imported nickel average price is 121,100, up 600; 1 imported nickel升贴水 to the Shanghai nickel contract average price is 350, unchanged. 1 Jinchuan nickel average price is 123,000, up 500; 1 Jinchuan nickel升贴水 to the Shanghai nickel contract average price is 2,250, down 100 [1]. Silicon - Oxygen - passing 553 (Xinjiang) average price plus 800 is 9,550, down 250; 553 spot升贴水 to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 1,180, down 205. 421 silicon (Kunming) average price is 10,000, polysilicon dense material average price is 0, granular silicon average price is 0, and N - type polysilicon material average price is 47 [1]. Lithium Carbonate - Battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 71,200, down 150; battery - grade lithium carbonate升贴水 to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 1,560, down 350. Industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 69,100, the battery - industrial carbon price difference is 2,100, with no change [1].