Overall Inventory Cycle - In April, the total inventory in the U.S. increased by 3.37% year-on-year, compared to a previous value of 3.43%[1] - The total sales in April rose by 3.74% year-on-year, down from 4.04% previously[1] - The data indicates a preliminary shift towards active destocking in the U.S. inventory cycle[1] Industry Inventory Cycle - Among 14 major industries in April, 10 were in passive restocking, including construction materials, metals, and consumer goods[12] - The historical percentile for overall inventory in April was 39.2%, with chemical products at 85.7% and construction materials at 83.2%[12] - Oil and chemical sectors are likely transitioning to active destocking, while construction and metal inventories remain high[12] Future Outlook - Despite uncertainties regarding tariffs, the U.S. inventory cycle is expected to lean towards active destocking in Q2 due to previous overstocking[1] - The "panic import" demand has extended the passive restocking cycle for downstream industries[14] - Active destocking is anticipated for automotive and automotive parts as of December 2024, with a continued trend into April 2025[14]

Economic Indicators - In June, the official manufacturing PMI recorded 49.7%, a slight increase from 49.5% in May, but still below the expansion threshold[2] - The non-manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5% from 50.3%, indicating continued expansion in the service sector[2] - The composite PMI output index increased to 50.7%, reflecting overall economic recovery[2] Manufacturing Sector Insights - The production index continued to expand, with new orders rising above the threshold, indicating improved demand[3] - New export orders showed a minor recovery, with domestic orders performing better than foreign ones[3] - The purchasing volume surged into the expansion zone, reflecting a positive shift in corporate procurement attitudes[3] Price and Inventory Dynamics - Both factory prices and major raw material purchase prices increased, indicating a balance between downstream demand recovery and upstream commodity price fluctuations[3] - Finished goods inventory rose significantly, while raw material inventory continued to recover, suggesting a cautious approach to inventory management[3] Sectoral Performance - The equipment manufacturing PMI increased by 0.2 percentage points to 51.4%, while the consumer goods sector PMI rose to 50.4%, marking six consecutive months of growth[4] - Large enterprises maintained strong PMI performance, while small enterprises saw a decline of 2 percentage points, highlighting resource imbalances within the industry[4] Future Outlook - The EPMI index fell to 47.9%, down 2.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a divergence from the PMI due to ongoing trade tensions and tariff issues[10] - Economic recovery remains uncertain, with the real estate sector still in a downturn and consumer prices under pressure, suggesting reliance on fiscal stimulus for demand recovery[13] - The bond market is expected to remain stable, supported by the current economic data and policy expectations, despite external uncertainties[16]

Group 1: PMI Data Overview - The manufacturing PMI for June is 49.7%, up from 49.5% in May[2] - The production index is at 51.0%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous value of 50.7%[2] - The new orders index stands at 50.2%, rising from 49.8%[2] Group 2: Sector Performance - The equipment manufacturing PMI is the highest at 51.4%, up 1.8 percentage points from April's 49.6%[4] - The construction industry business activity index is at 52.8%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points from the previous month[14] - The service industry business activity index is slightly down at 50.1%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points[14] Group 3: Price and Inventory Trends - The PMI factory price index is at 46.2%, remaining below the neutral line for 13 consecutive months[4] - The inventory index has improved, with the purchasing index at 50.2%, up from 47.6%[3] - The comprehensive PMI output index is at 50.7%, reflecting a 0.3 percentage point increase from the previous month[15] Group 4: External Trade and Expectations - New export orders index is at 47.7%, a slight increase from 47.5%[3] - The manufacturing production expectation index is at 52.0%, down from 52.5%[14] - The construction industry business activity expectation index is at 53.9%, up from 52.4%[14]

FICC日报 | 2025-07-01 制造业PMI回升，指数上涨 市场分析 制造业PMI回升。国内方面，国家统计局公布，6月份，我国制造业、非制造业和综合PMI分别为49.7%、50.5%和 50.7%，比上月上升0.2、0.2和0.3个百分点，三大指数均有所回升。装备制造业、高技术制造业和消费品行业PMI 均连续两个月位于扩张区间。海外方面，美联储博斯蒂克重申，他仍预计美联储今年会下调一次利率，同时指出 美联储在决定采取行动之前还有时间考虑最新的数据，同时他预计美联储明年将降息三次。 指数上涨。现货市场，A股三大指数震荡回升，上证指数涨0.59%收于3444.43点，创业板指涨1.35%。行业方面， 板块指数涨多跌少，国防军工、传媒、通信、电子行业涨幅居前，仅银行、非银金融、交通运输行业收跌。当日 沪深两市成交金额小幅回落至1.5万亿元。海外市场，加拿大宣布撤回数字服务税，以推动与美国的贸易谈判重回 正轨。美国总统特朗普与加拿大总理卡尼已同意两国将重启谈判，并力争在7月21日前达成协议。美国三大股指全 线收涨，道指涨0.63%报44094.77点。 期指减仓。期货市场，基差走势分化，IC、IM近月合约贴水 ...

宏观 证券研究报告 |点评报告 2025/6/30 6月PMI数据点评—— 需求重回扩张区间 徐超 S1190521050001 证券分析师： 分析师登记编号： 万琦 S1190524070001 证券分析师： 分析师登记编号： 目录 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 守正 出奇 宁静 致远 1、制造业PMI持续边际改善 2、建筑业带动非制造业加快扩张 ➢ 中国6月官方制造业PMI49.7，预期49.7，前值49.5。 ➢ 中国6月非制造业PMI50.5，预期50.3，前值50.3。 图表1：PMI数据主要分项 ➢制造业PMI边际持续修复。6月制造业采购经理指数为49.7%，比上月继续上升0.2个百分点，符合市 场预期。数据连续2个月上升，表明国内经济保持修复态势，这得益于内部稳增长政策的落地显效， 也与中美关税暂时性缓和、外部干扰因素影响减弱有关。 ➢指数呈广谱性回暖。基于边际变化的角度，本月多个分项指数同步释放积极信号。除从业人员指数 和生产经营活动预期指数较前值下降，其余11个分项指数均边际上行，上升幅度在0.2到2.6个百分 点之间。 | 项 目 | 较前值 | 2025/6 | 2025/5 | 2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent joint issuance of the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for Boosting and Expanding Consumption" by six Chinese government departments signals a strong commitment to expanding domestic demand, stimulating consumption, and promoting high-quality development [1][4] Group 1: Policy Measures - The "Opinions" propose 19 key measures across six areas, providing a clear direction for financial support of consumption and a roadmap for consumption upgrades [1] - Specific measures include innovative financing models, extending loan terms, and developing intellectual property pledge financing to address challenges in service consumption [2][3] Group 2: Consumption Trends - China's retail sales of consumer goods reached 41.326 trillion yuan in May 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 6.4%, indicating strong resilience and potential in the consumption market [1] - The focus on improving service consumption, particularly in sectors like cultural tourism, sports entertainment, and education, highlights the importance of these areas for driving consumer spending [2] Group 3: Financial Support Mechanisms - The need for systemic reforms to establish a long-term financial support mechanism for consumption is emphasized, aiming to enhance residents' consumption capacity and willingness [1][3] - The integration of data credit, consumer finance, and supply chain finance is proposed to improve financial understanding of emerging consumption industries [3] Group 4: Implementation and Collaboration - The "Opinions" call for a collaborative approach among various departments to ensure effective implementation, including data sharing and resource integration [3] - Establishing a classification assessment mechanism and incentive system for financial institutions is suggested to enhance their role in supporting consumption [3]

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the Shaanxi Product Digital Operation Center aims to enhance consumer demand and promote high-quality development of the consumer goods industry in Shaanxi province [1][2] Group 1: Digital Operation Center Overview - The Shaanxi Product Digital Operation Center officially commenced operations on June 26 in Xi'an, focusing on integrating digital platforms and supply chains to promote Shaanxi products nationally and globally [1] - The center employs a "supply chain + base + operation" model to provide online marketing, brand promotion, and supply chain collaboration services for upstream and downstream enterprises [1] Group 2: Product and Market Development - The center has partnered with numerous quality brands to establish permanent display centers for Shaanxi premium products in locations such as Xi'an Aerospace Base and Xi'an Xianyang International Airport, showcasing over 1,000 unique consumer goods [1] - The showcased products include categories like liquor, refined tea, dairy products, selenium-rich products, and traditional crafts, and the center utilizes an "online + offline" integration model to provide direct supply services to consumers in Hainan Free Trade Zone and the Yangtze River Delta [1] Group 3: Future Plans and Goals - The center has launched over 4,000 quality specialty products and promoted more than 500 quality enterprises across 12 key industry sectors [2] - Future efforts will focus on activating consumer market potential, enhancing consumer experiences, and driving economic high-quality development through a more trustworthy and impactful display and sales center for Shaanxi premium products [2]

Core Insights - The manufacturing PMI for June is at 49.7%, indicating a slight expansion in the manufacturing sector, with 11 out of 21 surveyed industries in the expansion zone, an increase of 4 from the previous month [2][3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.5%, showing continued expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [4][6] - The comprehensive PMI output index is at 50.7%, reflecting an overall acceleration in production and business activities [6] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI increased to 49.7%, with production and new orders indices at 51.0% and 50.2%, respectively, indicating improved production activities and market demand [2][3] - The purchasing volume index rose to 50.2%, up by 2.6 percentage points, suggesting enhanced procurement willingness among enterprises [2] - Price indices for major raw materials and factory prices improved, with indices at 48.4% and 46.2%, respectively, influenced by rising international oil prices [2] Key Industries - Key industries such as equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods continue to expand, with PMIs at 51.4%, 50.9%, and 50.4%, respectively [3] - The construction sector shows a significant recovery, with the business activity index at 52.8%, indicating robust infrastructure project progress [4][5] Market Expectations - The service sector's business activity expectation index is at 56.0%, indicating optimism among service enterprises regarding future development [5] - The construction industry's business activity expectation index rose to 53.9%, reflecting increased confidence among construction firms [5] Overall Economic Outlook - The overall economic activity is expected to improve as policy effects continue to manifest, with investment and consumption-related demands likely to be released [7]

Economic Resilience - In the first half of the year, the Chinese economy demonstrated resilience amid complex domestic and international conditions, supported by a series of proactive policy measures [1] - The manufacturing PMI and composite PMI both showed a rebound for two consecutive months in June, indicating a gradual stabilization and improvement in the economy [1] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI in June was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, marking a continuous recovery in the economic climate [1] - Production activities in June accelerated despite it being a traditional off-peak season, showing a seasonal anomaly [1] - The purchasing volume index rose significantly by 2.6 percentage points to 50.2%, while raw material inventory increased by 0.6 percentage points to 48%, the highest level this year [1] - The new orders index rose by 0.4 percentage points to 50.2%, indicating an overall improvement in market demand [1] Key Industries - The three major industries—equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods—maintained good expansion momentum, with PMIs of 51.4%, 50.9%, and 50.4% respectively, all remaining in the expansion zone for two consecutive months [2] - Equipment manufacturing showed particularly active production and demand, driving collaborative development across related industries [2] - The high-tech manufacturing sector provided strong support for economic transformation and high-quality development [2] - The consumer goods sector's steady expansion reflected improving consumer confidence and recovering market demand [2] Construction Sector - The construction business activity index rose to 52.8%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a significant improvement in the sector's climate [2] - The positive trend was supported by government policies and funding guarantees, including the issuance of long-term special bonds and local government special bonds [2] Service Sector - The service sector maintained steady expansion, with a business activity index of 50.1%, despite a slight decline due to seasonal factors [3] - Certain service industries, such as telecommunications, financial services, and insurance, remained robust with business activity indices above 60% [3] - The service sector's business activity expectations index remained high, reflecting optimism about future market developments [3] Fiscal and Monetary Policies - The issuance of new special bonds accelerated significantly in June, focusing on key areas to support economic growth [4] - The first round of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions for the year has been fully implemented, alleviating pressure on the banking system and reducing financing costs [4] - The central bank and other departments are expected to introduce more incremental policies to further promote high-quality economic development [4] Real Estate Support - The central and local governments are increasing support for the real estate sector, with measures aimed at stabilizing the market and optimizing existing policies [5] - More special bond funds are expected to be allocated to areas such as shantytown renovation and old community upgrades to improve living conditions [5]

6月30日，国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布了中国采购经理指数。数据显示，6 月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）、非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数分别为49.7%、50.5% 和50.7%，比5月份上升0.2个百分点、0.2个百分点和0.3个百分点，三大指数均有所回升，我国经济景气 水平总体保持扩张。 与此同时，价格指数回升。主要原材料购进价格指数和出厂价格指数分别为48.4%和46.2%，均比5月上 升1.5个百分点，制造业市场价格总体水平有所改善。 "从两个价格指数的变化趋势来看，近期制造业上游原料端和下游产品端的价格走势协同性较好。5月 份、6月份，购进价格指数和出厂价格指数同向变化，变化幅度相当。"文韬说。 分行业看，三大重点行业继续扩张。装备制造业、高技术制造业和消费品行业PMI分别为51.4%、50.9% 和50.4%，均连续两个月位于扩张区间。其中，装备制造业生产指数和新订单指数均高于53.0%，相关 行业产需两端较为活跃。高耗能行业PMI为47.8%，比5月份上升0.8个百分点，景气水平有所改善。 文韬表示，下半年我国经济将重点推进"强内"和"稳外"工作。"强内"是继 ...