瑞达期货（002961）：燃料油盘面反弹空间受限制 预计美联储将于下周降息，提振经济和需求预期，叠加地缘局势不稳定，国际油价上涨，对化工品成本 构成支撑。供应方面，主营炼厂因检修开工率承压，地炼则因元旦备货高峰提前提负，供应格局呈现区 域分化。库存方面，山东地区油浆及渣油库存下降，蜡油库存则继续上涨。需求端除河北地炼采购积极 外，其他地区出货承压，全国成交量和船燃采购量均有所减少。总体而言，短期基本面略有好转，而低 硫因科威特短期供应相对紧张有所支撑跌幅较小。综上，高低硫燃料油自身供需面有压力，盘面反弹空 间受限制；技术上，燃料油延续震荡筑底态势，其中fu主力合约夜盘涨9收于2470元/吨，LU主力合约夜 盘涨36收于3048元/吨，整体跟随原油震荡运行为主。观望。 12月8日盘中，燃料油期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至2515.00元。截止发稿，燃料油主力 合约报2511.00元，涨幅2.03%。 瑞达期货 燃料油盘面反弹空间受限制 燃料油期货主力涨超2%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 国投安信期货：燃料油整体呈现震荡走势 机构 核心观点 近期燃料油市场整体呈现弱势震荡格局，高低硫裂解价差 ...

今年以来，克拉玛依石化公司以科技创新为引领，持续深化"减油增特"和"双碳三新"发展战略，推动产 业链向高端化、差异化、多元化迈进。1至11月，该公司自主研发的11个新产品累计增效超1亿元，在新 能源新材料领域实现多点突破。 聚焦新兴赛道 液冷技术引领绿色散热革命 近年来，受原油含钙量升高及市场环境变化影响，克石化石油焦产品一度面临质量下滑、效益走低的困 境。克石化依托20多年的技术积累，通过优化脱钙剂配方、调整工艺参数，严格控制灰分、硫含量等关 键指标，有效提升了石油焦质量。 克石化并未止步于此，而是持续投入研发资源，不断开拓高端负极焦市场，成功研发出锂离子电池负极 专用石油焦，质量满足客户需求，并实现工业化生产。 深化产学研用 高端白油构建多元应用版图 今年以来，克石化持续加大研发投入，成功开发5种高端白油产品，研发产品质量达到进口产品标准， 成为克石化新的效益增长点。 11月25日，克石化生产的首批EV140充电桩冷却液产品发运。该产品是克石化针对新能源汽车大功率充 电设施领域自主研发的新产品。 2019年，克石化组建了研发团队攻关油基浸没式液冷技术，经过上百次配方调整、千余次性能测试，产 品可在-40℃ ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur crack in Singapore fluctuated, the monthly spread ran at a historical low, strengthened slightly on Friday, the basis weakened and then strengthened slightly on Friday. The European HSFO crack fluctuated weakly and the EW spread fluctuated. The 0.5% crack in Singapore weakened, the monthly spread and basis fluctuated at a low level. In terms of inventory, Singapore residue oil had a slight inventory build - up, high - sulfur floating storage had a slight inventory draw - down, ARA residue oil had a slight inventory build - up, Fujairah residue oil had a significant inventory build - up, high - sulfur floating storage had an inventory draw - down, and EIA residue oil had a slight inventory build - up. With the increasing expectation of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, the crack spreads of gasoline and diesel in the external market continued to fall this week, and the price difference between low - sulfur fuel oil and diesel continued to rebound. After the Al Zour refinery shut - down due to a fire on October 21st, the external low - sulfur fuel oil was supported, but the short - term upside space was limited. The global heavy - oil market entered the off - season with inventory build - up, the external crack spreads were affected by crude oil price fluctuations, and there was no improvement in the spot market. FU01 should be treated bearishly. The valuation of low - sulfur fuel oil was low, but there was no driving force [5][6]. Group 3: Data Summary Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2025/12/01 | 2025/12/02 | 2025/12/03 | 2025/12/04 | 2025/12/05 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 | 352.55 | 348.23 | 348.42 | 347.85 | 348.81 | 0.96 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 | 394.14 | 390.52 | 390.01 | 388.30 | 391.67 | 3.37 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | - 7.12 | - 7.51 | - 7.90 | - 8.06 | - 8.45 | - 0.39 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 | 645.54 | 645.64 | 632.71 | 632.46 | 648.64 | 16.18 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 251.40 | - 255.12 | - 242.70 | - 244.16 | - 256.97 | - 12.81 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 25.52 | 26.31 | 24.34 | 23.85 | 25.44 | 1.59 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 41.59 | 42.29 | 41.59 | 40.45 | 42.86 | 2.41 | [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2025/12/01 | 2025/12/02 | 2025/12/03 | 2025/12/04 | 2025/12/05 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 350.01 | 349.17 | 345.72 | 343.12 | 349.04 | 5.92 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 358.26 | 356.17 | 350.42 | 350.87 | 355.79 | 4.92 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 425.66 | 424.47 | 419.63 | 418.98 | 421.83 | 2.85 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 85.73 | 84.91 | 83.93 | 83.91 | 84.31 | 0.40 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | - 7.95 | - 7.76 | - 7.87 | - 8.37 | - 7.76 | 0.61 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 208.74 | - 203.86 | - 201.45 | - 201.95 | - 202.06 | - 0.11 | [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Type | 2025/12/01 | 2025/12/02 | 2025/12/03 | 2025/12/04 | 2025/12/05 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 338.62 | 337.62 | 334.01 | 334.75 | - | - | | FOB VLSFO | 425.18 | 423.98 | 418.67 | 418.44 | - | - | | 380 basis | - 7.00 | - 8.10 | - 7.15 | - 5.70 | - | - | | High - sulfur domestic - foreign price difference | 6.1 | - 1.2 | - 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | - 0.3 | | Low - sulfur domestic - foreign price difference | 1.2 | 1.0 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 5.1 | 2.3 | [4] Domestic FU Data | Type | 2025/12/01 | 2025/12/02 | 2025/12/03 | 2025/12/04 | 2025/12/05 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2495 | 2469 | 2437 | 2442 | 2455 | 13 | | FU 05 | 2552 | 2532 | 2499 | 2505 | 2525 | 20 | | FU 09 | 2527 | 2504 | 2468 | 2476 | 2490 | 14 | | FU 01 - 05 | - 57 | - 63 | - 62 | - 63 | - 70 | - 7 | | FU 05 - 09 | 25 | 28 | 31 | 29 | 35 | 6 | | FU 09 - 01 | 32 | 35 | 31 | 34 | 35 | 1 | [4] Domestic LU Data | Type | 2025/12/01 | 2025/12/02 | 2025/12/03 | 2025/12/04 | 2025/12/05 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3049 | 3030 | 3010 | 3009 | 3018 | 9 | | LU 05 | 3068 | 3053 | 3021 | 3029 | 3037 | 8 | | LU 09 | 3095 | 3086 | 3060 | 3062 | 3062 | 0 | | LU 01 - 05 | - 19 | - 23 | - 11 | - 20 | - 19 | 1 | | LU 05 - 09 | - 27 | - 33 | - 39 | - 33 | - 25 | 8 | | LU 09 - 01 | 46 | 56 | 50 | 53 | 44 | - 9 | [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the oil processing industry, consistent with the previous rating [1]. Core Insights - International oil prices experienced slight fluctuations due to geopolitical factors, with Brent and WTI prices reaching $63.75 and $60.08 per barrel, respectively, as of December 5, 2025 [2][9]. - The report highlights an increase in U.S. crude oil production to 13.815 million barrels per day, with active drilling rigs rising to 413 [40]. - The refining capacity utilization in the U.S. increased to 94.10%, indicating strong demand for crude oil processing [51]. - The report identifies key companies in the sector, including China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) [3]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - As of December 5, 2025, Brent crude futures settled at $63.75 per barrel, up $1.37 (+2.20%) from the previous week, while WTI crude futures rose to $60.08 per barrel, an increase of $1.53 (+2.61%) [26]. Offshore Drilling Services - The number of global offshore self-elevating drilling platforms increased to 368, with a net addition of 2 platforms, while floating drilling platforms rose to 130 [29]. Crude Oil Supply - U.S. crude oil production reached 13.815 million barrels per day, with a slight increase of 0.1 million barrels per day from the previous week [40]. Crude Oil Demand - U.S. refinery crude oil processing volume increased to 16.876 million barrels per day, with a utilization rate of 94.10% [51]. Crude Oil Inventory - As of November 28, 2025, total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 839 million barrels, reflecting a weekly increase of 824,000 barrels (+0.10%) [60]. Refined Oil Prices - In the North American market, as of December 5, 2025, average prices for diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel were $97.93, $77.61, and $87.74 per barrel, respectively [82].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Views of the Report - The mid - term weakness of crude oil may not support large - scale winter storage of asphalt. Refinery profits offer limited room for price cuts, suppressing the enthusiasm for winter storage, which may face a "lack of volume" problem. The winter storage policy in Shandong is expected to be announced next week, with prices likely around 2750 - 2830 yuan/ton [2]. - This week, the overall asphalt supply slightly decreased due to adjustments in North China refineries. The demand improved as prices dropped, mainly consuming social inventories. The peak season in the south did not exceed expectations. Factory inventories slightly increased, while social inventories decreased. Crude oil prices were weakly volatile, and the spot basis continued to weaken. In the long - term, northern demand will end with falling temperatures, while southern demand may increase after rainfall decreases [3]. - The asphalt market is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to winter storage and whether refineries will adjust prices to stimulate purchases. The long - term market will be affected by macro factors, policies, winter storage, and geopolitical situations [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The mid - term weakness of crude oil and limited refinery profit margins may lead to insufficient winter storage volume. The winter storage price in Shandong is expected to be around 2750 - 2830 yuan/ton. After the policy is announced, it may be the valuation anchor for BU01. Options sellers can be used for two - way strategies, or opportunities for long - position in BU03 basis can be considered [2]. - Other factors remain unchanged. Supply decreased slightly this week, demand improved as prices dropped, and the market is in a weakly volatile state. Attention should be paid to winter storage and price adjustments by refineries [3]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - The market is expected to be weakly volatile. Technical analysis suggests paying attention to the pressure level of 3050 and support level of 2950 for BU2601. The basis is expected to be bearish, the monthly spread may weaken seasonally, and there is no obvious driver for the crack spread between asphalt and crude oil, so it is recommended to wait and see [12]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - For inventory management, when product inventories are high, short - selling asphalt futures or selling call options can be used to lock in profits and reduce costs. For procurement management, when inventory is low, buying asphalt futures or selling put options can be used to lock in purchase costs and reduce expenses [11]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Domestic Asphalt Market Review**: Prices in South China, Shandong, Northwest, Northeast, and North China decreased by 25 - 350 yuan/ton this week. Northern demand decreased, and some refineries in the Northwest offered low - price winter storage. In South China, supply increased, and prices decreased. The East China market had sufficient supply [18]. - **Spot Market Outlook**: Asphalt consumption is entering the off - season, demand is under pressure, Shandong refineries have复产 plans, and the geopolitical premium of crude oil may decline [18]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Geopolitical situation changes, including the shipping and arrival of Venezuelan crude oil, Russian crude oil exports, the possibility of the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and changes in floating storage inventories at sea. Also, pay attention to the asphalt winter storage policy [20]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend and Fund Movement**: This week, the asphalt price fluctuated, and market sentiment was cautious. The net short - position of key profitable seats decreased, indicating that some institutions are more optimistic about the future, and the market may continue to fluctuate in the short term [22]. - **Basis Structure**: The asphalt basis structure weakened significantly this week, with the spot price close to the futures price. This is because spot trading was dull, and low - price contract resources supported market activity [26]. - **Monthly Spread Structure**: The monthly spread structure of asphalt continued to weaken, which is in line with the characteristics of the off - season [37]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - In the coking material market, the price of Shandong coking material increased by 75 to 3500 yuan/ton as of December 4. The profit of coking units improved, but high - price resource transactions were limited. The mainstream transaction price of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt decreased by 25 to 2960 - 3450 yuan/ton. The demand decreased, supply increased, and the price may continue to fall. The price difference between asphalt and coking material widened, but most asphalt plants have no plans to switch to producing coking materials in the short term [41]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - **South Korea Market**: The CIF price of South Korean asphalt in East China is 400 - 410 US dollars/ton, and the RMB duty - paid price is 3300 - 3380 yuan/ton. Some high - speed projects in East China are driving the consumption of imported asphalt, while demand in the North has decreased significantly [51]. - **New - Malaysia - Thailand Market**: The CIF price of Singaporean asphalt in South China is 500 - 520 US dollars/ton, and the RMB duty - paid price is 4030 - 4190 yuan/ton. The CIF price of Thai asphalt in South China is 515 - 525 US dollars/ton, and the RMB duty - paid price is 4150 - 4230 yuan/ton. The overall demand is stable, but the consumption of imported asphalt is limited due to competition from domestic resources [51]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply Side and Deduction - From January to October 2025, China's asphalt production was 2361 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 267 million tons or 13%. From January to November, the expected production is about 2585 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 260 million tons or 11% [54]. 5.2 Demand Side and Deduction - Most modified asphalt plants in the North have stopped production, while demand in the South has increased due to construction rush, leading to an increase in the local modified asphalt operating rate [74]. 5.3 Inventory Side and Deduction - Some social warehouses in the Northeast and Northwest will gradually receive refinery resources, and inventory levels will slowly rise. In the South, stable project construction has led to a continuous decline in social inventory levels [88]. 5.4 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The asphalt monthly supply - demand balance sheet shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual demand, and inventory changes from January to October 2025 [111]. 5.5 Weather Outlook - In the next 10 days (December 6 - 15), many regions in China will have precipitation, with some areas having higher precipitation than the same period of the year, while some areas will have less precipitation [112].

根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年10月中国汽油产量为1346万吨，同比增长1.7%；2025年1-10月中国汽 油累计产量为12953.3万吨，累计下降4.5%。 2020-2025年1-10月中国汽油产量统计图 上市企业：宝利国际（300135）,恒基达鑫（002492），中国石化（600028） 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国乙醇汽油行业发展现状调查及市场分析预测报告》 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 ...

2020-2025年1-10月中国煤油产量统计图 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 上市企业：镇海股份（603637），中国石化（600028） 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国煤油行业市场运行格局及产业前景研判报告》 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年10月中国煤油产量为516万吨，同比增长14.7%；2025年1-10月中国煤 油累计产量为4978.6万吨，累计增长5%。 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 ...

缓慢寻底 沥青月报 2025/12/05 徐绍祖 （能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号：Z0022675 严梓桑 （联系人） 0755-23375123 yanzs@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03149203 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 05 需求端 02 期现市场 06 相关指标 03 供应端 07 产业链结构图 04 库存 01 月度评估及策略推荐 行情回顾 图1：沥青主力合约近月走势（￥/吨） 2,600.0 2,800.0 3,000.0 3,200.0 3,400.0 3,600.0 3,800.0 4,000.0 2025/1/1 2025/1/8 2025/1/15 2025/1/22 2025/1/29 2025/2/5 2025/2/12 2025/2/19 2025/2/26 2025/3/5 2025/3/12 2025/3/19 2025/3/26 2025/4/2 2025/4/9 2025/4/16 2025/4/23 2025/4/30 2025/5/7 2025/5/14 2025/5/21 2025/5/28 2025/6/4 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 沥青日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2025年12月05日 【行情分析】 供应端，本周沥青开工率环比回升0.1个百分点至27.9%，较去年同期低了1.0个百分点，仍处于 近年同期最低水平。据隆众资讯数据，12月份国内沥青预计排产215.8万吨，环比减少7.0万吨，减幅 为3.1%，同比减少34.4万吨，减幅为13.8%。本周，沥青下游各行业开工率涨跌互现，其中道路沥青 开工环比持平于29%，受到资金和天气制约。本周，全国出货量环比增加7.06%至28.06万吨，处于中 性水平。沥青炼厂库存存货比环比下降，仍处于近年来同期的最低位附近。俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克表 示，美国及西方最新实施的制裁并未对俄罗斯的石油产量造成影响，另外特朗普政府极力促成俄乌 停火，泽连斯基表明对和谈持开放态度，不过近期俄乌和谈达成可能性不大，原油价格低位震荡。 委内瑞拉Jose工业区发生火灾，20万桶/日的蒸馏装置停运，不过美方对委内瑞拉军事威胁之下，稀 释沥青贴水幅度扩大。下周齐鲁石化计划转产沥青，沥青开工率将略有上升。北方气温下降后，道 路施工逐渐收尾，后续需求将进一步转弱，南方项目增量有限，整体需求一般。近期山东地区沥青 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The asphalt supply is expected to slightly increase as some refineries resume production, while demand will weaken further due to the end of road construction in the north and limited project increments in the south. The asphalt futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Last week, the asphalt operating rate increased by 3.0 percentage points to 27.8% week-on-week, still at the lowest level in recent years. In December, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 215.8 million tons, a decrease of 7.0 million tons month-on-month and a decrease of 34.4 million tons year-on-year. The downstream operating rates of asphalt mostly declined last week. The national asphalt shipment volume increased by 6.74% to 26.21 million tons week-on-week, at a neutral level. The inventory-to-sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat week-on-week, near the lowest level in recent years. The crude oil price oscillated at a low level, and the discount of diluted asphalt widened. This week, the asphalt operating rate will slightly increase, but overall demand will be weak. The asphalt price in Shandong has been falling, and the basis is at a neutral level. The market is cautious about winter storage contracts, and the asphalt futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Today, the asphalt futures contract 2601 rose 1.06% to 2,952 yuan/ton, below the 5-day moving average. The lowest price was 2,941 yuan/ton, and the highest price was 2,972 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 8,340 to 104,372 lots [2] Basis - The mainstream market price of asphalt in Shandong continued to fall to 2,940 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract fell to -12 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, the asphalt operating rate increased by 3.0 percentage points to 27.8% week-on-week, still at the lowest level in recent years. The investment in national highway construction from January to October decreased by 6.0% year-on-year, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate was flat compared with that from January to September. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of the actual completed investment in fixed assets of the road transportation industry from January to October decreased by 4.3%, a slight decline from -2.7% from January to September. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of the completed fixed assets investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) from January to October decreased by 0.1%, a further decline from 1.1% from January to September. As of the week of November 28, the downstream operating rates of asphalt mostly declined, with the road asphalt operating rate decreasing by 5 percentage points to 29% week-on-week. From the perspective of social financing stock, the year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock from January to October was 8.5%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from that from January to September. The new social financing in October was lower than market expectations. In terms of inventory, as of the week of November 28, the inventory-to-sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat week-on-week at 14.5%, near the lowest level in recent years [4]