沥青日报：高开后震荡运行 发布日期：2026年1月14日 【行情分析】 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回落2.0个百分点至25.4%，较去年同期高了1.3个百分点，处于近 年同期偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据，2026年1月份国内沥青预计排产200万吨，环比减少15.8万吨，减 幅为7.3%，同比减少27.6万吨，减幅为12.1%。上周，沥青下游各行业开工率多数下跌，其中道路沥 青开工环比下跌3个百分点至17%，受到资金和天气制约。上周，华东地区主力炼厂间歇停产，其出 货量减少较多，全国出货量环比减少20.05%至21.03万吨，处于中性偏低水平。沥青炼厂库存率环比 上升，仍处于近年来同期的最低位附近。美国突袭委内瑞拉并逮捕马杜罗引发地缘政治局势动荡， 与影响国内原油不同，委内瑞拉重油是国内地炼重要的低价原料，而此次美国军事袭击之下，委内 瑞拉稀释沥青贴水幅度预计缩小，委内瑞拉重质原油流向国内地炼严重受限，特朗普称委内瑞拉将 向美国移交3000万至5000万桶石油，美国能源部长赖特宣称，美国将"无限期"地控制委内瑞拉石 油销售，这将影响国内沥青的生产和成本，目前美国政府倾向与维多和托克等全球大宗商品贸易商 合作，更快地 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 沥青日报：低开后震荡运行 发布日期：2026年1月13日 【行情分析】 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回落2.0个百分点至25.4%，较去年同期高了1.3个百分点，处于近 年同期偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据，2026年1月份国内沥青预计排产200万吨，环比减少15.8万吨，减 幅为7.3%，同比减少27.6万吨，减幅为12.1%。上周，沥青下游各行业开工率多数下跌，其中道路沥 青开工环比下跌3个百分点至17%，受到资金和天气制约。上周，华东地区主力炼厂间歇停产，其出 货量减少较多，全国出货量环比减少20.05%至21.03万吨，处于中性偏低水平。沥青炼厂库存率环比 上升，仍处于近年来同期的最低位附近。美国突袭委内瑞拉并逮捕马杜罗引发地缘政治局势动荡， 与影响国内原油不同，委内瑞拉重油是国内地炼重要的低价原料，而此次美国军事袭击之下，委内 瑞拉稀释沥青贴水幅度预计缩小，委内瑞拉重质原油流向国内地炼严重受限，特朗普称委内瑞拉将 向美国移交3000万至5000万桶石油，美国能源部长赖特宣称，美国将"无限期"地控制委内瑞拉石 油销售，这将影响国内沥青的生产和成本，目前美国政府倾向与维多和托克等全球大宗商 ...

摘要：【图】2025年1-8月四川省液化石油气产量数据分析 2025年8月液化石油气产量统计： 液化石油气产量：1.8 万吨 同比增长：16.4% 图1：四川省液化石油气产量分月（当月值）统计图 增速较上一年同期变化：高17.7个百分点 据统计，2025年8月四川省规模以上工业企业液化石油气产量与上年同期相比增长了16.4%，达1.8万 吨，增速较上一年同期高17.7个百分点，增速较同期全国高17.3个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业 液化石油气产量449.5万吨的比重为0.4%。 详见下图： 2025年1-8月液化石油气产量统计： 液化石油气产量：15.4 万吨 同比增长：3.0% 图2：四川省液化石油气产量分月（累计值）统计图 注：主要能源产品产量月度统计范围为规模以上工业法人单位，即年主营业务收入2000万元及以上的工 业企业。 产业调研网为您提供更多 增速较上一年同期变化：低31.0个百分点 据统计，2025年1－8月，四川省规模以上工业企业液化石油气产量与上年同期相比增长了3.0%，达15.4 万吨，增速较上一年同期低31.0个百分点，增速放缓，增速较同期全国高5.1个百分点，约占同期全国规 模以上 ...

Group 1: Chemical Sector Performance - The chemical index outperformed the oil index last week, with all chemical indices rising. The chemical raw materials index increased by 5.14%, the chemical machinery index rose by 7.20%, the chemical pharmaceuticals index climbed by 7.33%, and the pesticide and fertilizer index went up by 5.10% [1] - In the oil sector, the oil processing index increased by 0.65%, while the oil extraction index fell by 3.82%, and the oil trading index rose by 4.88% [1] Group 2: Oil Price Movements - International crude oil prices showed mixed trends. As of January 9, the settlement price for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil was $59.12 per barrel, up 3.14% from January 2. The settlement price for Brent crude oil was $63.34 per barrel, up 4.26% from January 2 [1] Group 3: Petrochemical Product Price Changes - The top five petrochemical products with the highest price increases were battery-grade lithium carbonate (up 18.21%), butadiene (up 10.37%), isooctyl acrylate (up 8.23%), diethylene glycol (up 5.90%), and polybutadiene rubber (up 4.86%). The top five products with the largest price declines were liquid chlorine (down 31.25%), glycine (down 4.55%), vitamin D3 (down 4.00%), mancozeb (down 3.45%), and acrylonitrile (down 3.33%) [1] Group 4: Capital Market Performance of Listed Chemical Companies - The top five listed chemical companies with the highest stock price increases were Puli Tech (up 42.59%), Dawi Technology (up 35.34%), Sanfu Co. (up 32.29%), Guofeng Plastics (up 30.63%), and Tongcheng New Materials (up 30.54%). The bottom five companies with the largest stock price declines were Evergrande High-tech (down 13.05%), Jiabiyou (down 12.16%), Hangzhou High-tech (down 11.24%), Yahua Group (down 6.59%), and Fengshen Co. (down 5.48%) [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the growth in China's crude oil processing capacity, highlighting a year-on-year increase in production and providing insights into the oil industry outlook from 2026 to 2032 based on a report by Zhiyan Consulting [1]. Group 1: Industry Overview - In November 2025, China's crude oil processing volume reached 60.83 million tons, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.9% [1]. - From January to November 2025, the cumulative crude oil processing volume in China was 675.069 million tons, with a total growth of 4% compared to the previous year [1]. Group 2: Companies Mentioned - Listed companies in the article include Hengyi Petrochemical (000703), Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493), Sinopec (600028), PetroChina (601857), Shanghai Petrochemical (600688), Huajin Co. (000059), Taishan Petroleum (000554), Yueyang Xingchang (000819), ST Shihua (000637), and Shenyang Chemical (000698) [1]. Group 3: Research Report - Zhiyan Consulting has released a report titled "Analysis of Development Strategies and Investment Prospects in China's Oil Industry from 2026 to 2032," which provides in-depth industry research and insights [1].

沥青周报 研究员：童川 期货从业证号：F3071222 投资咨询证号：Z0017010 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析 | 4 | | 第三章 | 周度数据追踪 | 10 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 百川盈孚统计，本周四国内沥青厂装置开工率为29.06%，较本周一下降2.85%；沥青总库存水平为24.36%，较本周一下 降0.37%；社会库存率为24.19%，较上周日下跌0.15%。前期油价偏弱，市场对沥青原料供应矛盾有所消化，叠加需求淡 季且沥青盘面裂解高位，沥青维持高位震荡格局。隔夜油价大涨，沥青成本端支撑明显，短期盘面预计高位震荡。 【策略】 单边：高位震荡。 套利：观望。 期权：观望。 (观点仅供参考，不作为买卖依据 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Venezuela and Iran's geopolitical disturbances continue, causing short - term disruptions to oil exports and production due to US strategies, leading to increased volatility in fuel oil prices. Attention should be paid to geopolitical developments. The fundamental situation of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to remain weakly stable in Q1. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is expected to recover, and demand lacks specific driving factors [4]. - In terms of trading strategies, the short - term trend is expected to be oscillatingly strong. Geopolitical risks should be watched out for, and chasing up is not recommended. Opportunities for the FU59 positive spread should be noted, and options should be on the sidelines [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Comprehensive Analysis** - Geopolitical factors in Venezuela and Iran disrupt short - term oil exports and production. High - sulfur fuel oil fundamentals are weak in Q1. Russian exports are slightly affected, Mexican high - sulfur exports are rising, and low - sulfur supply is recovering [4]. - In terms of demand, the issuance of crude oil quotas in 2026 weakens the support for high - sulfur feedstock. Low - sulfur supply has increased recently [4]. - **Trading Strategies** - Unilateral trading: Short - term oscillation with an upward bias, beware of geopolitical risks, and avoid chasing up [5]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to FU59 positive spread opportunities [5]. - Options: Stay on the sidelines [5]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **Supply Side** - **Russia**: Energy facilities are under continuous attack, but overall exports are slightly affected. Refined oil exports are rising, and the overall refining capacity increased in December. High - sulfur fuel oil exports decreased in January [10]. - **Mexico**: High - sulfur exports are rising due to the increase in Pemex processing volume. However, medium - term exports are expected to decline [13]. - **Iran**: The internal situation is escalating. Oil exports and high - sulfur fuel oil exports decreased in December. Iraq plans to supply over 6 million tons of high - sulfur fuel oil from January to June 2026 [16]. - **Nigeria**: The Dangote refinery's gasoline unit is under maintenance, with stable low - sulfur supply. Low - sulfur tenders are continuously issued [25]. - **Middle East**: There is still a short - term supply gap for low - sulfur fuel oil. The Al - Zour refinery's CDU units have restarted, but secondary units have no restart updates [28]. - **Sudan**: Civil war disrupts oil supply and exports. The energy supply is expected to gradually recover, and new oil tenders have been issued [31]. - **Pan - Singapore Region**: The expected excess supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is gradually decreasing as RFCC unit operations increase [34]. - **Demand Side** - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil** - Feedstock demand: The issuance of crude oil quotas in 2026 weakens the support for high - sulfur feedstock, and Chinese imports decreased in December [19]. - Marine fuel demand: It is stably supported, and the marginal increase comes from the stable growth of the number of ships equipped with desulfurization towers [22]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil** - There is no specific driving factor. Marine fuel demand is stable, and the power - generation economy is inferior to that of natural gas [37]. - High - sulfur marine fuel demand accounts for an increasing proportion, mainly due to the Red Sea suspension and the growth in the number of ships with desulfurization towers [40]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **Price and Spread** - Fuel oil spot prices and various spreads (such as high - sulfur fuel oil cross - region and cross - period spreads, low - sulfur fuel oil cross - region and cross - variety spreads, etc.) are presented in graphical form, but specific numerical analyses are not provided in the text [44][47][50]. - **Inventory** - Inventory data for fuel oil in Singapore, ARA, the US, Fujeirah, and Japan are presented in graphical form, but no detailed text analysis is provided [70]. - Inventory data for gasoline, diesel, and refined oil in Northwest Europe and the US Gulf are also presented graphically [75][78].

Core Viewpoint - The recent geopolitical events, particularly in Venezuela and Iran, have led to a rebound in international oil prices, with Brent and WTI crude oil prices increasing significantly over the past week [1][2]. Oil Price Review - As of January 9, 2026, Brent crude futures settled at $63.34 per barrel, up $2.59 per barrel (+4.26%) from the previous week; WTI crude futures settled at $59.12 per barrel, up $1.80 per barrel (+3.14%); Russian Urals crude spot price remained stable at $65.49 per barrel; Russian ESPO crude spot price increased by $1.07 per barrel (+2.19%) [2]. Geopolitical Influences - The reduction in oil production by Venezuela, influenced by U.S. military actions and potential investments in Venezuelan oil resources, has provided short-term support for oil prices. However, the U.S. continues to enforce sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports [1]. - The situation in Iran remains tense, with reports indicating that the U.S. is considering military options against Iran, contributing to the volatility in oil prices [1]. U.S. Oil Supply and Demand - As of January 2, 2026, U.S. crude oil production was 13.81 million barrels per day, a decrease of 16,000 barrels per day from the previous week. The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. was 409, down by 3 rigs [2]. - U.S. refinery crude processing averaged 16.91 million barrels per day, an increase of 62,000 barrels per day, with a refinery utilization rate of 94.70%, unchanged from the previous week [2]. U.S. Oil Inventory - As of January 2, 2026, total U.S. crude oil inventories were 833 million barrels, a decrease of 3.587 million barrels (-0.43%). Strategic oil inventories increased by 245,000 barrels (+0.06%), while commercial crude inventories decreased by 3.832 million barrels (-0.91%) [3]. Biofuel Prices - As of January 9, 2026, the FOB price for ester-based biodiesel was $1,150 per ton, down $15 from the previous week. The price for hydrocarbon-based biodiesel remained stable at $1,875 per ton [4]. Related Companies - Key companies in the sector include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) [5].

摘要：【图】2025年9月河北省柴油产量数据分析 2025年1-9月柴油产量分析： 据国家统计局数据，在2025年的前9个月，河北省规模以上工业企业柴油产量累计达到了733.6万吨，与 2024年同期的数据相比，增长了11.5%，增速较2024年同期高0.4个百分点，继续保持增长，增速较同期 全国高14.0个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业柴油产量14691万吨的比重为5.0%。 图表：河北省柴油产量分月（当月值）统计 注：主要能源产品产量月度统计范围为规模以上工业法人单位，即年主营业务收入2000万元及以上的工 业企业。 产业调研网为您提供更多 2025年9月柴油产量分析： 单独看2025年9月份，河北省规模以上工业企业柴油产量达到了72.7万吨，与2024年同期的数据相比，9 月份的产量增长了35.5%，增速较2024年同期高82.4个百分点，增速较同期全国高32.4个百分点，约占 同期全国规模以上企业柴油产量1741.8万吨的比重为4.2%。 图表：河北省柴油产量分月（累计值）统计 石油化工行业最新动态 石油发展现状及前景预测 化工市场调研及发展趋势 日化行业监测及发展趋势 润滑油未来发展趋势预测 汽油 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the oil refining industry Core Insights - The downstream demand for polyester filament is weak, leading to increased inventory levels and a heightened sentiment for clearing stock and receivables as the Chinese New Year approaches [2] - The price spread for domestic key refining projects is 2502.21 CNY/ton, with a slight increase of 0.76 CNY/ton (+0.03%) week-on-week, while the price spread for foreign key refining projects is 1152.16 CNY/ton, showing a decrease of 67.70 CNY/ton (-5.55%) [3] - Brent crude oil's average price for the week ending January 9, 2026, is 61.61 USD/barrel, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.27% [2] Summary by Sections Refining Sector - The international oil price has fluctuated due to geopolitical tensions, particularly concerning Venezuela and Iran, with Brent and WTI prices rising by 2.59 USD and 1.80 USD per barrel respectively from January 2 to January 9, 2026 [13] - Domestic refined oil prices have slightly decreased, with diesel, gasoline, and aviation kerosene averaging 6405.29 CNY/ton, 7551.57 CNY/ton, and 5258.57 CNY/ton respectively [13] Chemical Sector - Chemical product prices are experiencing fluctuations, with polyethylene prices showing stability while polypropylene prices are under pressure due to increased maintenance of production facilities [2] - The price of EVA has increased slightly, with a current average of 9600.00 CNY/ton, while the price of pure benzene remains stable at 5300.00 CNY/ton [49] Polyester & Nylon Sector - The polyester and nylon industry chain prices are stable, with PTA prices slightly decreasing and the demand for polyester filament continuing to decline [2] - The sentiment for clearing stock is growing stronger as textile market orders are limited, leading to increased inventory levels [2]