Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of clear insights in an era of information overload, highlighting the role of deep reading in understanding the changing times [2] - A collaborative initiative called "Million Fans Knowledge Blogger Annual Book List" was launched, involving over 30 knowledge creators to address contemporary issues and promote valuable reading [2][4] - The book list aims to provide a trustworthy guide for individuals seeking reading value, reflecting a year of deep dialogue and collective wisdom [4][43] Economic Insights - The book list focuses on resilience and high-quality growth in the context of China's economy, addressing challenges and providing key perspectives on macro policies, individual choices, and global trends [5] - Notable titles include "The Great Outbound: Challenges and Breakthroughs for Chinese Manufacturing" which analyzes real challenges faced by companies in global markets [7] - "Great Power Finance: China's Opportunities in Global Financial Changes" compares financial models between China and the US, emphasizing the need for a unique development path [9] Management Insights - The management book list highlights essential qualities for contemporary managers, including global vision and data insight, to navigate a complex business environment [12] - Titles like "Turning Passion into Business" explore how to bridge the gap between personal interests and market needs, while "Key Leap: The Underlying Logic for New Managers" provides frameworks for transitioning from professionals to leaders [14][16] Technology Insights - The technology section discusses how technology is redefining existence and reshaping civilization, with books that analyze the underlying logic of technological waves and individual survival strategies [25] - "Digital World Survival Guide" offers a framework for understanding digital identity and economic systems, while "AI Transformation: Survival Guide in the AI Era" explores the impact of AI on human existence [29][32] Personal Growth Insights - The personal growth section emphasizes the journey of self-exploration and restructuring one's inner order, guiding readers through various dimensions of personal development [39][40] - The book list serves as a compass for individuals seeking to navigate uncertainties and build resilience in their lives [43]

本次活动由成都、德阳、眉山、资阳四地商务部门联合主办，成都相关区（市）县人民政府、成都文旅集团、成都益民投资集团协办，并得 到甘孜州、凉山州、阿坝州商务部门大力支持。 展品覆盖四市三州 转自：成都日报锦观 成都都市圈及甘阿凉三州联动，产销精准对接 600余种"天府好礼"亮相上海商圈 上海市民穿梭在各个展位间，沉浸式感受巴蜀物产的独特魅力。 "天府好礼"集结、区域联动破圈、产销精准对接……12月20日至21日，成都都市圈"天府好礼"特色产品展示展销活动在上海万象城热力启幕。 这场聚焦"蓉品出川"的特色展销盛会，集结了成都、德阳、眉山、资阳四市与甘孜州、阿坝州、凉山州的好物精华，汇聚科技时尚、绿色美 味、好玩精美的600余种爆品，以"组团亮相+沉浸体验"的形式，为上海市民带来兼具川味风情与文化底蕴的消费体验，更搭建起四川特色产 品拓展长三角市场的重要桥梁。 消费体验更具趣味性参与感 川派元素点缀的展位错落有致，试吃、体验、采购对接的热潮此起彼伏……上海万象城东广场化身充满川西风情的"天府好物展销区"，琳琅满 目的特色商品与热烈的消费氛围交织，展会现场人头攒动、香气四溢，市民穿梭在各个展位间，沉浸式感受巴蜀物产的独 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts that the global stock market will continue its bull market into 2026, but the index returns will be lower than in 2025, with a broader diversification in the market as AI benefits spread from core tech giants to a wider range of industries [1][2] Economic Environment - The global economy is expected to maintain a comprehensive expansion in 2026, supported by further moderate easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, providing solid support for the stock market [2] Return Expectations - According to regional market capitalization weighting, the expected price return for the global stock market in 2026 is 13%, with a total return including dividends reaching 15%, primarily driven by earnings growth rather than valuation expansion [3][8] Market Cycle Stages - The stock market cycle is categorized into four stages: "Despair" (bear market), "Hope" (valuation-driven rebound), "Growth" (longest phase driven by earnings), and "Optimism" (increased investor confidence leading to valuation rises) [4] Market Trends - The report notes a significant broadening trend in the global stock market in 2025, which is expected to continue into 2026, breaking the previous highly concentrated market structure [9][10] Performance of Major Markets - In 2025, for the first time in nearly 15 years, U.S. stocks underperformed, with total returns in Europe, China, and Asia nearly double that of the U.S. market [10][11] Regional Performance Predictions - In 2026, U.S. stocks are expected to slightly underperform compared to global markets, with the MSCI Asia-Pacific (excluding Japan) and MSCI Emerging Markets indices projected to achieve total returns of 18%, surpassing the expected 15% for the S&P 500 [12] Investment Styles - The U.S. market remains dominated by growth stocks, while non-U.S. markets are seeing better performance from value stocks, indicating a shift from the past decade's growth stock dominance [13] Sector Performance - The trend of broadening returns is evident, with technology and finance leading in 2025, while real estate and healthcare lagged, reflecting the emergence of quality stocks within both growth and value sectors [14] Concentration of Earnings - The contribution of the top seven tech giants to the S&P 500's earnings is expected to decrease from 50% in 2025 to 46% in 2026, with the earnings growth of the remaining 493 companies increasing from 7% to 9%, indicating a further decline in industry concentration [15] AI Benefits Expansion - In 2026, the benefits of AI are expected to spread from core tech giants to a broader range of industries and companies, particularly those that can leverage AI and related technologies to enhance profitability and productivity [16][20] Market Dynamics - The current tech stock enthusiasm is not seen as a bubble, as today's tech giants possess stronger balance sheets and cash flows compared to the 2000 internet bubble [17] Investor Behavior - The correlation of stocks among the five major AI hyperscalers has dropped from 80% to 20%, indicating that investors are becoming more selective about which companies to invest in within the tech sector [18] Cross-Industry Growth - The spillover effects of tech capital expenditures are expected to drive growth in non-tech sectors such as industrials, materials, and finance, creating a cross-industry growth wave termed "AI + Industry" [21]

对于普通人而言，封关带来的远不止免税购物，更是一场关于资产形态的深度变革。一个以现实世界资产数字化为核心的新生态正在这里悄然酝酿。 2025年12月18日，海南自由贸易港正式启动全岛封关运作，3万多平方公里的海南岛成为海关监管特殊区域。 这是我国扩大高水平对外开放的标志性举措，标志着海南自贸港建设开启新篇章。 RWA是指通过区块链技术，将现实世界中有价值的有形或无形资产，进行数字化映射，转化为可在区块链上发行、交易和管理的数字凭证的过程。 这种技术类似于在区块链上为实体资产创建数字"孪生体"，代表底层资产的所有权或收益权。RWA的核心价值在于解决传统资产"难以分割、交易繁琐、融 资缓慢"的痛点。 零关税政策、技术创新和独特的流通管控模式，正在让这座热带岛屿成为连接现实世界与数字资产的全球枢纽。 在航空维修等高端制造业，零关税政策已经为企业带来了实实在在的成本优势，降低了设备的初始投资和维修成本。这些设备资产未来也可以通过RWA实 现更灵活的融资和流转。 从本质上讲，RWA代币化使原本"躺在账本里"的静态资产，变成了可灵活拆分、高效流转的动态价值载体。 海南封关后实施"'一线'放开、'二线'管住、岛内自由"的政 ...

全球金融市场被一条消息震动：中国再次减持118亿美元美国国债，而特朗普政府正施压日本等盟友接盘。 特斯拉CEO马斯克更直言"美国基本没救了"。 这 不仅仅是数字游戏，而是美元霸权遭遇的一次公开质疑。 当世界最大的债主开始收手，美国靠借债度日的模式正在露出破绽。 特朗普公开要求美联储大幅降息，理由是刺激就业和稳定经济。 但华尔街的交易员们私下议论，这其实是为了减轻政府的利息负担。 美国国债已经超过34 万亿美元，高利率下，每天支付的利息就像一台烧钱的机器。 美联储主席的职位还没换人，市场已经提前行动。 债券价格开始波动，美元汇率上下起伏，股市也跟着摇摆。 投资者担心，政治压力会让美联储失去独立 性，未来通胀可能再次飙升。 美国财政部数据显示，中国持仓降到多年来的低点。 这种减持不是突然清仓，而像慢慢拧紧水龙头，减少对美元资产的依赖。 加拿大、卢森堡这些金融中心也在减持美债，加拿大减仓的比例相当高，几乎是在重新安排自己的家底。 海外资金对美债的态度变了，以前觉得最安全， 现在开始担心风险。 马斯克在社交媒体上发言，批评美国财政路线。 他说，光靠人工智能和科技梦想，填不平债务的大坑。 这话从一位科技巨头嘴里说出来， ...

Market Performance - The Dow Jones increased by 0.38%, the Nasdaq rose by 1.31%, and the S&P 500 gained 0.88% at the close, indicating a stabilization after previous declines [1] - Bank stocks showed signs of recovery, with Morgan Stanley up by 2.32% and other major banks like Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan Chase all rising over 1% [3] - Technology stocks continued their strong performance, highlighted by a 6.15% increase in AMD, a 3.93% rise in Nvidia, and a 1.55% gain in Google, while Tesla and META experienced slight declines [3] Chinese Stocks - Chinese stocks experienced a pullback after an initial rise, with the China Golden Dragon Index up by 0.86% at the close. Notable performers included XPeng Motors, which surged by 6.77%, and Li Auto, which rose by 5.07% [3] Gold Market - COMEX gold prices saw a recovery, closing up by 0.1% at $4368.7 per ounce, after hitting a low of $4336.3 and a high of $4389 during the trading session [3]

记者丨 郭聪聪 编辑丨杨希 视频丨曾婷芳 见习编辑陈泽锴 12月19日，中国人民银行会同国家发展改革委、金融监管总局联合发布《人民币现金收付及服 务规定》（以下简称《规定》），明确 自2026年2月1日起，行政机关、事业单位、公共服务 机构及各类经营主体，不得随意拒收人民币现金，不得对现金支付采取歧视性措施 。 该规定的出台是为了为切实维护人民币法定货币地位，防范和整治拒收人民币现金行为，满足 社会公众多样化支付服务需求，构建多元支付方式共同发展下的现金便利流通环境。 《规定》共十九条，聚焦现金收付服务中的突出问题，作出了一系列针对性规范。 | | 中国人民银行 国家发展改革委 金融监管总局公告〔2025〕第29号 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 字号 | | 2025-12-19 17:00:00 | | | | 打印本页 关闭窗口 | 其中，支付选择权保障成为核心亮点，明确除法定特殊情形外，所有提供面对面服务、人工收 款或线上预约线下交付的经营主体，必须支持现金支付，不得要求或诱导他人拒收现金 。这 意味着超市、餐饮、景区、学校等高频消费场景，不能再以"只支持扫码支付"为由拒绝接收纸 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs expects the global stock market to continue its bull market into 2026, with a market capitalization-weighted total return rate of 15%, primarily driven by earnings growth rather than valuation expansion [4][5][10]. Economic Environment - The global economy is projected to maintain a comprehensive expansion in 2026, supported by further moderate easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, providing solid support for the stock market [5][6]. - The current market is defined as being in the "optimistic" phase of the cycle, characterized by increased investor confidence and potential upward pressure on valuations [5][6]. Market Trends - The report indicates a significant broadening trend in the global stock market, with non-U.S. markets expected to outperform U.S. stocks, breaking the previous concentration pattern [4][10]. - In 2025, it was noted that for the first time in nearly 15 years, U.S. stocks underperformed compared to other major markets, with total returns in Europe, China, and Asia nearly double that of the U.S. [10][11]. Earnings Growth - Goldman Sachs forecasts that all regions will achieve sustained positive earnings growth in 2026, with the S&P 500 expected to see a 12% growth, STOXX 600 at 5%, Japan's TOPIX at 9%, and Asia-Pacific (excluding Japan) at 16% [8][10]. - The contribution of the top seven tech giants to S&P 500 earnings is expected to decrease from 50% in 2025 to 46% in 2026, indicating a further decline in industry concentration [11]. AI Dividend - The AI dividend is anticipated to further expand in 2026, benefiting a broader range of industries and companies beyond core tech giants, particularly those that can leverage AI to enhance profitability and productivity [4][12][16]. - The spillover effects of tech capital expenditures are expected to drive growth in industrial, materials, and financial sectors, creating a cross-industry growth wave termed "AI + industry" [16]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights a shift in focus among investors towards AI beneficiaries outside the tech sector, as competition intensifies and cost structures evolve within the AI landscape [14][15]. - Historical data suggests that in the absence of a recession, even with high valuations, the stock market is unlikely to experience significant pullbacks or bear markets [6].

Group 1: Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs predicts that the global stock market will continue its bull market into 2026, with a price return of 13% and a total return of 15% including dividends, driven primarily by earnings growth rather than valuation expansion [1][2] - The current market is defined as being in the "optimistic" phase of the cycle, characterized by increased investor confidence and potential upward risks to core expectations [2][3] - The report indicates that the trend of non-U.S. markets outperforming U.S. markets will continue, with European, Chinese, and Asian markets showing total returns nearly double that of the U.S. market [1][5] Group 2: Earnings Growth and Valuation - Goldman Sachs expects all regions to achieve positive earnings growth in 2026, with the S&P 500 projected to grow earnings by 12%, STOXX 600 by 5%, Japan's TOPIX by 9%, and Asia-Pacific (excluding Japan) by 16% [3] - The report highlights that the high valuations observed in the U.S. market, with a forward P/E ratio of 22.3, will lead to returns being more reliant on fundamental earnings growth rather than valuation expansion [3] Group 3: Sector and Market Diversification - The bull market is broadening, with a notable shift away from the dominance of U.S. tech stocks, as the contribution of the top seven tech giants to S&P 500 earnings is expected to decrease from 50% in 2025 to 46% in 2026 [6] - Traditional value sectors such as financials and materials are transitioning from "value traps" to "value creators," benefiting from increased tech capital expenditures [5][6] Group 4: AI Impact and Sector Expansion - The AI dividend is expected to expand beyond core tech giants to a wider range of industries and companies that can leverage AI to enhance profitability and productivity [1][7] - The report notes a significant reduction in stock correlation among the five major AI hyperscalers, indicating a shift towards selective investment in potential winners within the tech sector [8] - The spillover effects of tech capital spending are anticipated to drive growth in non-tech sectors, creating a cross-industry growth wave termed "AI+ industry" [9]

此外，广西持续加大金融惠企担保费用补贴力度，通过调整担保费用补贴适用对象相关要素，取消融资 担保补贴贷款利率参考限制，进一步扩大担保费用补贴覆盖面。 中新网南宁12月20日电 (陈沿佑 蒋思蓓)广西壮族自治区官方19日举行新闻发布会介绍，2025年7月3日 至12月18日，广西全区金融机构累计投放金融惠企贴息贷款1328.55亿元(人民币，下同)，惠及3.47万户 经营主体，直接降低相关经营主体融资成本14.16亿元。 "我们对金融惠企财政贴息重点领域产品和普惠性产品获得融资担保增信的经营主体，按其担保金额的 一定比例给予担保费用补贴。截至12月18日，广西全区累计投放并申报补贴融资担保业务34.99亿元， 惠及1429户经营主体，降低相关经营主体融资成本923.15万元。"杨瑞华说。 广西壮族自治区党委金融办副主任杨瑞华介绍，从投放量来看，下半年贴息贷款完成全年目标1500亿元 的88.57%，较2024年下半年贴息贷款投放金额增长近四成；从投放主体来看，投向民营、小微企业金 额占比分别为69.87%、65.6%，户数占比分别达97.54%、98.68%，普惠领域融资惠及面持续扩大；从投 放利率来看，贴息贷 ...