中金点睛"本周精选"栏目将带您回顾本周深受读者欢迎的研究报告。 01 宏观 Macroeconomy 特朗普的两个目标均难实现 >>点击图片查看全文<< 特朗普政府试图通过加征关税促使美国贸易逆差收窄，制造业回流，我们认为这两个目标难以通过关税实现。首先，关税难以使得美国贸易逆差收 窄。从理论来看，提升关税并不一定能够缩减逆差（扩大顺差）。根据勒纳对称定理，对进口征税等同于对本国的出口征税。关税难以促使制造业回 流美国。全球供应链对中国的依赖度比较高，而且无论是从劳动者数量、质量，还是就业意愿来看，美国制造业回流都将面临着劳动力短缺的问题。 美国制造业成本高，也是其制造业回流的挑战。特朗普关税或对美国产生滞胀式影响，美国衰退风险加大。除了"滞胀"风险，特朗普的减税、削减支 出和关税组合或将损害美国大多数家庭，对低收入人群损害更大，加剧美国内部不平衡。实际上，从经济视角来看，美国没有非常突出的外部失衡问 题，但内部分配问题很严重。 资料来源：US Census Bureau，中金公司研究部 >>点击图片跳转报告原文<< 2025.04.23 | 张文朗 黄亚东等 02 宏观 Macroeconomy 从汇率、利 ...

敬请投资者注意，受复活节假期影响，港股、欧洲股市和澳大利亚股市本周一休市。 特朗普列举8项非关税"作弊"手段，点名日本和欧盟，手段包括1.汇率操纵，2.增值税作为关税和出口补 贴，3.低于成本倾销，4.出口补贴和其他政府补贴，5.农业保护性标准（如欧盟禁止转基因玉米），6.防 护技术标准（如日本保龄球试验），7.假冒、盗版和知识产权盗窃（年损失超过1万亿美元），8.转运避 税。 中航信托宣布由建信信托、国投泰康信托来进行日常托管。虽然还没有正式官宣暴雷，但这个上百亿规 模的央企信托已经实质上雷了，之前多款面向社会投资者的信托产品已经停止兑付。中航信托之所以暴 雷，是因为之前重仓投资了房地产，恒大、融创、红星美凯龙的坑他们都踩了。另外有媒体报道，他们 在暴雷前曾经给内部员工进行提前兑付。目前，中航信托还有超过500亿的产品没有兑付。 A股方面，沪指上周累计涨1.19%、深成指跌0.54%、创业板指跌0.64%。市场持续缩量，周五创去 年"924"行情爆发以来新低。银行、房地产、综合、煤炭等板块逆市上涨，国防军工、农林牧渔、计算 机等板块跌幅居前。 港股方面，恒指上周累计涨2.3%，国指涨1.23%，恒生科技指数 ...

多家基金公司接连发布自购公告 近日A股市场巨震下，基金公司纷纷拿出真金白银自购。上周以来已有国金、中信建投、博时、鹏扬、 招商、兴证全球等基金公司接连出手。年内公告自购的基金公司已达到10多家。另据数据统计，加上发 起式基金认购，年内基金公司自购总额已超12亿元。（中国基金报） 最高降幅80% 多地机票迎来大跳水 近日，有网友在社交平台发帖称，刚去购票网站上打算预订机票，结果发现机票悄悄降价了。记者查询 发现，随着清明节后旅游淡季的到来，不少航线机票价格低至一到两折，部分甚至远低于同期高铁票 价。据某购票平台显示，清明假期后，深圳飞往林芝、大理、丽江等城市的机票价格均有所下降，其中 深圳飞林芝的机票降幅达到了75%。国内多个城市机票价格均有所下降。其中，常州直飞大连的机票降 至239元，降幅达到80%。（深圳新闻网） 网传哪吒汽车经销商代表齐聚桐乡工厂维权 保险资金长期股票投资试点规模超1600亿 试点加快落地 第二批保险资金开展长期股票投资试点正加快落地，同时还有更多险资筹划申请试点。作为险资入市方 式的创新探索，今年保险资金长期股票投资试点的规模已从500亿元增至1620亿元，参与试点的保险公 司也从2家 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the divergence in the trends of oil prices and US Treasury yields, indicating that the recent drop in oil prices, with Brent crude at $64.76 per barrel (down 13% from early April), typically signals expectations of economic recession. However, the 10Y US Treasury yield rose significantly by 47 basis points to 4.48%, marking the highest level since mid-February and the largest single-week sell-off in the US bond market since September 2019. This divergence suggests a weakening of the traditional safe-haven status of US Treasuries, while increasing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset remains intact [8][9][10]. Group 2 - In the domestic equity market, as of April 11, 2025, the average daily trading volume was 15,751 billion yuan, up from 11,173 billion yuan previously. The report notes that the consumer sector outperformed, followed by finance, while cyclical and growth sectors lagged. Among the 31 sectors tracked, only 4 sectors saw gains, with agriculture, retail, and defense industries leading the way, while power equipment, telecommunications, and machinery sectors faced significant declines [18][19]. Group 3 - The report discusses the strengthening of domestic consumption and technology sectors, with expectations for continued growth in GDP and key economic indicators such as industrial output and retail sales. The anticipated release of trade data is expected to provide further insights into the impact of trade tensions and credit conditions on domestic consumption policies. The report suggests that while there may be short-term risks related to raw material price declines and export impacts, the long-term outlook remains positive for leading industry players and new technological applications [10][11][12].

Global Macro - Goldman Sachs reports that the announced tariff rate has a weighted average of 18.3%, with an actual increase of 12.6 percentage points after specific exemptions are deducted, indicating that the overall tariff increase may exceed the previously expected 15 percentage points due to subsequent countermeasures [1] Focus on China - Morgan Stanley highlights that China is one of the countries most impacted by the tariff increases, with effective tariffs rising to 65% following a 34% increase in U.S. tariffs [3][5] - The impact of tariffs on China's economy is expected to be greater than in 2018-2019, with the difficulty of reaching an agreement to lower tariffs being significant [4][5] - The U.S. comprehensive tariffs will also negatively affect global trade, indirectly impacting China [4][5] Industry Impact - JPMorgan assesses that the direct impact of tariffs on Asian companies is relatively small, but certain industries may face indirect effects due to economic slowdown and currency fluctuations [8] - Approximately 14.4% of the Asian region is considered directly affected by U.S. tariffs, primarily driven by the industrial sector, especially export-oriented companies from Taiwan and South Korea [8] - The financial sector, which constitutes 39% of the investment-grade emerging market bond index in Asia, is expected to be less affected by tariffs, providing a buffer for the region [9] Individual Stock Impact - UBS indicates that the recent 34% tariffs on China will likely pressure stock prices until clear stimulus policies are announced, estimating a 3% revenue reduction for MSCI China constituents and a potential 1-2% profit decrease due to tariffs [11][15] - The sectors most at risk from potential profit impacts include machinery, petrochemicals, sportswear OEM, biotech, and tech hardware [15] - A list of companies with significant U.S. revenue exposure has been compiled, with many facing earnings impacts due to the tariffs [12][13]

Economic Policy and Market Sentiment - The Two Sessions continue the "seeking progress while maintaining stability" tone, with a focus on domestic demand to counter external uncertainties, positively impacting market sentiment[2] - The general public budget deficit is set at 5.66 trillion yuan, corresponding to a narrow deficit ratio of 4%, both historical highs[2] Market Trends and Liquidity - U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 151,000 in February, slightly below the expected 160,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%, slightly above the previous value of 4.0%[3] - Passive foreign capital inflow into Hong Kong stocks accelerated, with net inflows of 1.09 billion USD last week, while active foreign capital saw a net outflow of 250 million USD[4] Investment Strategy - The short-term outlook for Hong Kong stocks is not pessimistic, with a long-term positive view on the revaluation of Chinese assets, supported by stable domestic economic indicators and strong performance from leading tech companies[5] - Recommended investment strategy includes a "barbell" approach focusing on technology revaluation (internet/hardware), new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and high-dividend communication sectors[5] Risk Factors - Risks include geopolitical uncertainties, U.S. prioritization of investment policies, and overcrowding in the technology sector[6]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for various sectors, particularly in technology and construction, with a focus on government support and policy measures to stimulate growth [2][3][19]. Core Insights - The government has set a growth target of approximately 5% for 2025, with a CPI target of around 2%, reflecting a pragmatic approach to economic management [2]. - Fiscal policy is becoming more proactive, with an increase in the budget and local government special bonds, aimed at boosting domestic demand and stabilizing the real estate market [3][5]. - Emphasis on new productivity represented by AI and other emerging technologies, with a focus on modernizing the industrial system and promoting large-scale application demonstrations of new technologies [3][6][30]. - The resilience of Chinese exports is highlighted, with stable global market shares and an increase in the share of intermediate goods, indicating continued global reliance on China [7]. - Capital market reforms are deepening, with measures to attract long-term funds into the market, including increased allocations from insurance and public funds [10][19]. - The report outlines specific measures for the real estate sector, including demand stimulation and supply adjustments, to support market stabilization [23][21]. Summary by Sections Economic Goals and Policies - The government aims for a 5% growth target and a 2% CPI target, with fiscal policies becoming more aggressive, including a budget increase to 1.6 trillion yuan and an increase in local government special bonds to 4.4 trillion yuan [2][3]. Real Estate Market - The report emphasizes the need to stabilize the real estate market through various measures, including issuing special bonds to support local governments and expanding the use of special loans [5][21][23]. Emerging Industries - The focus is on AI, biomanufacturing, quantum technology, and 6G as key areas for future growth, with government support for large-scale applications of new technologies [6][30]. Export Resilience - Despite global supply chain disruptions, Chinese exports have shown resilience, maintaining stable market shares and increasing the share of intermediate goods [7]. Capital Market Reforms - The report discusses measures to deepen capital market reforms, including attracting long-term funds and optimizing stock issuance and merger regulations [10][19]. Construction and Building Materials - The government plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan in long-term special bonds and 4.4 trillion yuan in special bonds, which is expected to improve the order and payment situation for construction enterprises [15][16]. Technology and Innovation - The report highlights the importance of technological innovation, particularly in AI and related fields, and emphasizes the need for core technology self-reliance [30][32].

中金研究 2025年3月5日，李强总理向十四届全国人大三次会议作政府工作报告，全面部署2025年经济社会发展总体要求和政策取向，设定今年发展的主要预期 目标，安排今年部分重点工作[1]。2025年政府工作报告对经济和金融市场具体可能如何影响？请听中金公司总量以及行业为您联合解读。 宏观 积极回应多方面关切 2025 年 3 月 5 日，国务院总理李强代表国务院，向十四届全国人大三次会议作政府工作报告（以下简称《报告》），延续了 2024 年中央经济工作会议的基 调。《报告》将 GDP 目标被设定为 5% 左右，既考虑了短周期的稳增长需要，也 " 与中长期发展目标相衔接 " 。 CPI 通胀目标被设定为 2% 左右，在通胀偏弱 的情况下，这是一个更为务实的目标，但《报告》也指出 " 实现这些目标很不容易，必须付出艰苦努力 " 。 除了稳增长之外，《报告》也指出要大力发展 以大 AI 为代表的新质生产力，并积极防范金融领域风险， " 稳住楼市股市 " 。总体而言，《报告》对短期与长期、金融与实体等方面的问题都予以积极回 应，报告还指出 " 充实完善政策工具箱，根据形势变化动态调整政策 " ，后续我们将紧密关注各项 ...

奇瑞向港交所递表，计划 20 年的上市终于要实现了。 在奇瑞汽车 2004 年第一次公布上市计划的 20 年后，这家大型传统车企的上市终于有明确进度。它 也是中国整车制造企业中为数不多尚未上市的一家。今年 2 月，奇瑞汽车董事长尹同跃说，2025 年奇瑞高质量上市是首要任务 OpenAI 发布 GPT-4.5，更聪明但也更贵了。 北京时间今日凌晨，OpenAI 再次用小型直播的方式发布了新模型 GPT-4.5，它拥有 1 万亿激活参 数，训练数据量高达 120 万亿 tokens，知识库更广泛，支持搜索、分析图片与协作编程，能处理的 任务更多，但在特定任务上不如一些推理模型。新模型主要提高了 "情商"，降低了幻觉。但 GPT- 4.5 又涨价了，每百万 Tokens 价格为 75 美元，比 GPT-4o 贵了 30 倍，比 DeepSeek 淡季折扣价格 贵 1000 多倍。 CEO 奥尔特曼在医院照顾刚出生的孩子而没有出席发布会，他在晚些时候更新社媒，称 OpenAI 的 GPU 目前已经用完了，将在下周为 GPT-4.5 增加数万块 GPU。GPT 4.5 目前已对 Pro 用户开放，下 周开始下周将向 ...