2025 年 04 月 29 日 耐用消费产业行业研究 买入（维持评级） 行业周报 证券研究报告 国金证券研究所 分析师：赵中平（执业 S1130524050003） zhaozhongping＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：杨欣（执业 S1130522080010） yangxin1＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：王刚（执业 S1130524080001） wang_g＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：叶思嘉（执业 S1130523080001） yesijia＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：张杨桓（执业 S1130522090001） zhangyanghuan＠gjzq.com.cn 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 ◼ 内需：3 月政策加力逐步释放，2 月全国新房/二手房价格环比微跌接近持平。一线城市表现优于全国整体，新房 表现整体优于二手房，新房企稳迹象更明显，一线城市新房已连续 4 个月转正。一线新房价格环比+0.1%，一线 二手房价格环比+0.2%。 ◼ 出口：受关税影响，3 月各类别（除家电、纺织）出口额累计同比不及往年同期，家电、纺织逆势增长，家电连 续 6 个月累计同比增长。各类别（除箱 ...

4月28日沪指下跌0.20%，市场两融余额为18038.08亿元，较前一交易日增加11.80亿元。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，截至4月28日，沪市两融余额9183.23亿元，较前一交易日增加6.66亿元；深 市两融余额8802.70亿元，较前一交易日增加5.56亿元；北交所两融余额52.16亿元，较前一交易日减少 0.42亿元；深沪北两融余额合计18038.08亿元，较前一交易日增加11.80亿元。 分行业看，申万所属行业中，融资余额增加的行业有17个，增加金额最多的行业是汽车，融资余额增加 5.71亿元；其次是通信、传媒行业，融资余额分别增加3.64亿元、1.58亿元。 具体到个股来看，融资余额出现增长的股票有1733只，占比46.95%，其中，234股融资余额增幅超过5% 。融资余额增幅最大的是拾比佰，该股最新融资余额313.51万元，较前一交易日增幅达82.55%；股价表 现上，该股当日下跌10.55%，表现弱于沪指；融资余额增幅较多的还有博创科技、方大新材，融资余 额增幅分别为71.67%、66.16%。 融资余额增幅前20只个股中，从市场表现来看，平均下跌4.94%，涨幅居前的有淳中科技、博创科技、 ...

| 代码 | 简称 | 收盘价（元） | 换手率（%） | 涨停板封单（万股） | 封单资金（万元） | 行业 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600744 | 华银电力 | 4.66 | 0.85 | 10695.19 | 49839.58 | 公用事业 | | 601956 | 东贝集团 | 7.48 | 1.03 | 4848.48 | 36266.67 | 家用电器 | | 002229 | 鸿博股份 | 13.13 | 1.78 | 1776.18 | 23321.22 | 轻工制造 | | 002530 | 金财互联 | 10.05 | 5.45 | 1136.14 | 11418.21 | 机械设备 | | 600589 | 大位科技 | 7.00 | 12.15 | 1468.06 | 10276.42 | 计算机 | | 002564 | 天沃科技 | 5.83 | 12.08 | 1755.84 | 10236.57 | 建筑装饰 | | 002354 | 天娱数科 | 6.56 | 20.42 | 1447.45 | 949 ...

| 属 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 通信 | 23.27 | -10.64 | 1.33 | -0.75 | -10.19 | | 国防军 | 13.44 | -14.05 | 1.25 | -1.06 | -10.38 | | 工 | | | | | | | 食品饮 | 20.45 | -4.78 | 2.28 | -0.38 | -10.45 | | 料 | | | | | | | 房地产 | 51.63 | -18.02 | 2.37 | -3.66 | -15.54 | | 公用事 | 70.72 | 13.03 | 1.79 | 0.39 | -18.36 | | 业 | | | | | | | 电力设 | 47.36 | 5.45 | 1.93 | -0.59 | -18.40 | | 备 | | | | | | | 计算机 | 56.99 | -0.84 | 3.22 | -0.54 | -20.01 | | 非银金 | 33.17 | -11.39 | 0.79 | -0.67 | -21.94 | | 融 | | | ...

2025 年 4 月 28 日 总量研究 市场波动温和提升，杠铃组合或占优 ——金融工程市场跟踪周报 20250428 要点 上周市场核心观点： 上周（2025.04.21-2025.04.25，下同）A 股窄幅震荡，市场整体表现不佳。主 要宽基指数量能维持近期低位，量能择时指标仍维持谨慎信号。资金面方面，ETF 资金周度净流出，大盘宽基 ETF 为净流出主要方向。市场波动方面，主要宽基 指数截面波动率、时序波动率环比上周皆有上升。 从市场大类因子表现来看，上周市场动量因子占优。结合上证 50 指数层面表现 的相对低迷来看，后市流动性延续宽松背景下，小市值或持续占优。确定性方面， 红利优势仍将维持。"红利+小盘"杠铃组合或为市场探寻方向背景下获取相对 收益的最优选择。 上周市场各指数涨跌不一，上证综指上涨 0.56%，上证 50 下跌 0.33%，沪深 300 上涨 0.38%，中证 500 上涨 1.20%，中证 1000 上涨 1.85%，创业板指上 涨 1.74%，北证 50 指数下跌 2.16%。 截至 2025 年 4 月 25 日，宽基指数来看，上证指数、上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、中 ...

截至4月25日，市场最新融资余额为17914.72亿元，较上个交易日环比减少54.02亿元，分行业统计，申 万所属一级行业有6个行业融资余额增加，汽车行业融资余额增加最多，较上一日增加3.84亿元；融资 余额增加居前的行业还有医药生物、房地产、轻工制造等，融资余额分别增加3.76亿元、2.50亿元、 5872.98万元；融资余额减少的行业有25个，电子、通信、电力设备等行业融资余额减少较多，分别减 少10.48亿元、6.02亿元、5.43亿元。 注：本文系新闻报道，不构成投资建议，股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 以幅度进行统计，房地产行业融资余额增幅最高，最新融资余额为299.84亿元，环比增长0.84%，其次 是轻工制造、汽车、医药生物行业，环比增幅分别为0.50%、0.45%、0.31%；融资余额环比降幅居前的 行业有美容护理、纺织服饰、钢铁等，最新融资余额分别有56.28亿元、66.72亿元、151.13亿元，分别 下降2.07%、1.66%、1.40%。（数据宝） （文章来源：证券时报网） | 有色金属 | 778.15 | -3.10 | -0.40 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Group 1 - The North Exchange 50 index decreased by 2.16%, with a trading volume of 1503.29 billion, reflecting an 8% decrease week-on-week [12][17][27] - The new code switching pilot for six stocks will be launched after May Day, aimed at enhancing the recognition of the North Exchange and distinguishing it from the New Third Board [12][13][54] - The report emphasizes a cautious approach before the holiday and a non-pessimistic outlook afterward, suggesting a focus on technology sectors that have undergone sufficient adjustments [13][17][49] Group 2 - No new stocks were listed on the North Exchange this week, with a total of 265 companies currently trading [3][31] - The New Third Board saw nine new listings and 18 delistings, with no new financing plans and a completed financing of 0.50 billion [4][55] - The report highlights the performance of specific companies, with notable gains for Fangda New Materials and Zhongyu Technology, while companies like Minshida and Kangbiter faced significant declines [39][40][42] Group 3 - The average PE (TTM) for the North Exchange is 78.81 times, with a median of 47.08 times, indicating a higher valuation compared to other exchanges [24][26] - The report notes that the financing balance for margin trading on the North Exchange increased to 53.14 billion, reflecting a slight rise from the previous week [30][27] - Key announcements include the issuance of guidelines for share changes and updates to the listing rules by the Beijing Stock Exchange [49][51]

受访者由看好消费板块转向人形机器人等板块。 本周（4月21日至4月25日），A股市场成交放量，连续5个交易日成交额维持在万亿元以上。本周，沪指累计上涨0.56%，深证成指上 涨1.38%，创业板指上涨1.74%，沪深300上涨0.38%。 | 名称 | 年初至今 | 本周涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | | (%) | (%) | | 中证1000 | -0.31 | 1.85 | | 创业板指 | -9.08 | 1.74 | | 深证成指 | -4.78 | 1.38 | | 中证500 | -1.72 | 1.20 | | 上证指数 > | =1.69 | 0.56 | | 沪深300 | -3.76 | 0.38 | | 科创50 | 1.58 | -0.40 | | 北证50 | 25.28 | -2.16 | 从盈亏情况来看，本周有42%的受访者"盈利10%以内"，较上一期29%的比例大幅增长13个百分点；"亏损10%以内"的受访者占比 34%，上一期占比42%；"亏损10%到20%"的受访者占比11%，较上期继续下降2个百分点。 35%受访者认为大盘将站上3300点 对目前 ...

- The diffusion index model triggered a right-side buy signal at the close of trading on Tuesday, April 25, 2025 [6][14][33] - The first threshold method triggered a full position signal at the close of trading on April 7, 2025 [36] - The delayed threshold method gave an open position signal at the close of trading on April 22, 2025 [40] - The dual moving average method gave a short position signal at the close of trading on March 12, 2025 [41] Model Testing Results - Diffusion index model, weekly return 2.52% [43] - First threshold method, signal value 0.0225 [36] - Delayed threshold method, signal value not specified [40] - Dual moving average method, signal value not specified [41] Quantitative Factors and Construction - Factor name: Momentum factor; Construction idea: Based on the stock's price momentum; Construction process: Calculated using the rank IC method, weekly rank IC value 0.221, historical average -0.003 [5][13][27] - Factor name: Logarithmic market capitalization factor; Construction idea: Based on the logarithm of the stock's market capitalization; Construction process: Calculated using the rank IC method, weekly rank IC value 0.196, historical average -0.032 [5][13][27] - Factor name: Non-linear market capitalization factor; Construction idea: Based on the non-linear transformation of the stock's market capitalization; Construction process: Calculated using the rank IC method, weekly rank IC value 0.196, historical average -0.032 [5][13][27] - Factor name: Single-quarter ROE factor; Construction idea: Based on the stock's return on equity for a single quarter; Construction process: Calculated using the rank IC method, weekly rank IC value 0.19, historical average 0.025 [5][13][27] - Factor name: PE TTM reciprocal factor; Construction idea: Based on the reciprocal of the stock's price-to-earnings ratio trailing twelve months; Construction process: Calculated using the rank IC method, weekly rank IC value 0.189, historical average 0.02 [5][13][27] Factor Testing Results - Momentum factor, weekly rank IC value 0.221, historical average -0.003 [5][13][27] - Logarithmic market capitalization factor, weekly rank IC value 0.196, historical average -0.032 [5][13][27] - Non-linear market capitalization factor, weekly rank IC value 0.196, historical average -0.032 [5][13][27] - Single-quarter ROE factor, weekly rank IC value 0.19, historical average 0.025 [5][13][27] - PE TTM reciprocal factor, weekly rank IC value 0.189, historical average 0.02 [5][13][27]