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建信期货镍日报-20250801
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 03:05
Report Information - Report Title: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: August 1, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Core Viewpoint - On the 31st, black - series commodities tumbled, and Shanghai nickel showed weakness, closing below the 120,000 mark again. The main contract 2509 closed down 1.79% at 119,830, with the total open interest of the index increasing by 11,234 to 190,329 lots. The nickel surplus pattern remains unchanged, and prices declined again after the cooling of macro - sentiment. The overall surplus pattern of nickel is still significant, and the nickel price is temporarily regarded as weak [8]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - **Market Performance**: On the 31st, black - series commodities fell generally, and Shanghai nickel was weak. The main 2509 contract closed down 1.79% at 119,830, and the total open interest of the index increased by 11,234 to 190,329 lots [8]. - **Supply - side Situation**: There are expectations of loose supply from the mining ends in the Philippines and Indonesia, and the probability of subsequent decline in ore prices is high. Under the pressure of losses, some production lines in Indonesia have switched to producing high - grade nickel matte, driving a slight recovery in the low - level nickel - iron price. On the 31st, the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel iron was reported at 912.5 yuan per nickel point, but the acceptance of high - price nickel ore remains low [8]. - **Demand - side Situation**: The stainless - steel market is still weak, in the traditional off - season of consumption with high inventory. As the nickel - iron price rises, some downstream enterprises prefer to purchase scrap stainless steel for production, and the acceptance of high - nickel pig iron prices is also poor. The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate remained flat at 27,370 yuan per ton on the 31st, and it stopped falling and rebounded in the short term supported by the rigid replenishment demand of precursors and the low inventory of nickel salt plants [8]. 2. Industry News - **Indonesian Investment**: Indonesia's national investment management agency Danantara is exploring investment opportunities in the nickel downstream industry. It is considering acquiring the PT Gunbuster Nickel Industry (GNI) smelter. Danantara expects to prepare an investment plan of over $20 billion and provide about $60 million in medium - term financing through a syndicated loan [9][10]. - **Battery Energy Storage**: Bulgaria officially launched the largest - scale operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 megawatts/496.2 megawatt - hours. Renewable energy storage company Apatura has obtained planning permission for a 100 - megawatt battery energy storage system (BESS) project in Scotland, and its approved total energy storage capacity has exceeded 1.6 gigawatts [10]. - **Solar Cell Innovation**: A research team in Turkey developed a TOPCon solar cell using nickel (Ni) contacts with almost no silver (Ag), achieving nearly the same efficiency while significantly reducing silver usage, which is expected to reduce production costs and improve sustainability and scalability [10].
PT Vale印尼公司二季度高冰镍产量同比增加12%
Wen Hua Cai Jing· 2025-07-31 10:31
Group 1 - PT Vale Indonesia reported a high nickel production of 18,557 tons in Q2, representing a 12% year-over-year increase [1] - The company maintains an optimistic outlook for sustaining current nickel production levels [1] - The high nickel production target for the year is set at 71,234 tons [1]
镍:矿端配额上调&精炼镍库存高企 期价弱势难改
Wen Hua Cai Jing· 2025-07-31 08:24
Macro Perspective - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates during the July meeting, which had a limited impact on nickel prices [2] - Indonesia's government raised nickel ore production quotas from 298.5 million wet tons to 364 million tons, but actual production was only 120 million tons, significantly below the quota [2] - Nickel ore imports in June were 4.35 million tons, down 9% year-on-year, but up 11% month-on-month, leading to an increase in nickel concentrate port inventory to 9.3146 million wet tons, returning to the median level of the past five years [2] Stainless Steel Industry - Both Indonesia and China's stainless steel industries are in a consumption lull, with profits for 200 and 400 series hot-rolled and cold-rolled stainless steel remaining negative, while only the 300 series maintained positive margins [3] - In June, production of hot-rolled stainless steel decreased by 5.5% month-on-month, and cold-rolled stainless steel production fell by 2% [3] - Nickel pig iron (NPI) production profits in China have declined, leading to the lowest operating rates and production levels in nearly four years, with imports of NPI rising by 50% year-on-year in June [3] Battery and Alloy Demand - Domestic sales of new energy vehicles increased by 35% year-on-year in the first half of the year, significantly boosting nickel demand for batteries [4] - Nickel demand for alloys also rose, with refined nickel production reaching 210,000 tons in the first half of the year, a 41% increase year-on-year, marking a four-year high [4] - Nickel inventory levels are at their highest in four years, with LME nickel inventory at 208,000 tons, a 98% year-on-year increase [4] Nickel Price Trends - Nickel prices have been fluctuating within a range since June, with a peak of 125,370 yuan/ton in July due to stimulus measures in key industries [5] - The outlook suggests that nickel prices will continue to fluctuate, especially if Indonesia increases its nickel concentrate production in response to raised quotas [6] - The overall supply-demand balance for refined nickel remains loose, with high inventory levels at LME and SHFE, indicating limited upward price momentum in the short term [6]
Greenbushes 锂矿 2025Q2 产销量分别同比增长 2%、减少 22%至 34 万吨/41.2 万吨, 2025Q2 单位现金生产成本同比增长 8%至 366 澳元吨
HUAXI Securities· 2025-07-31 06:22
Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's performance relative to the benchmark index [5]. Core Insights - The lithium business, particularly the Greenbushes lithium mine, showed a production volume of 340,000 tons in Q2 2025, reflecting a 2% year-on-year increase, while sales volume decreased by 22% to 412,000 tons [1][3]. - The average realized price for lithium concentrate was $725 per ton, down 8% from the previous quarter [1]. - The Kwinana lithium hydroxide plant produced 2,126 tons in Q2 2025, a 36% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 60% increase year-on-year, although sales volume decreased by 25% [4][6]. - The nickel business at the Nova project reported a production of 5,107 tons in Q2 2025, a 22% increase quarter-on-quarter, but a 20% decrease year-on-year [8]. Summary by Sections Lithium Business - Greenbushes lithium mine produced 340,000 tons in Q2 2025, with a cash production cost of A$366 per ton, up 8% year-on-year [1][3]. - Kwinana hydroxide plant's production was 2,126 tons, with a conversion cost of A$17,215 per ton, down 20% from the previous quarter [4][7]. Nickel Business - Nova project achieved a nickel production of 5,107 tons in Q2 2025, with a cash cost of A$3.97 per pound, down 23% quarter-on-quarter [8]. - The average realized price for nickel decreased to A$23,261 per ton, a 7% decline from the previous quarter [8]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue for Q2 2025 was A$126.9 million, a 15% increase quarter-on-quarter but a 46% decrease year-on-year [10]. - The underlying EBITDA for Q2 2025 was A$62.3 million, compared to A$34 million in the same quarter last year [11]. Production Guidance - For FY25, the Greenbushes lithium production guidance is set at 1,350,000 to 1,550,000 tons, with a cash cost guidance of A$320 to A$380 per ton [19]. - The Kwinana refinery's production guidance for FY25 is 7,000 to 8,000 tons of lithium hydroxide [19].
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:绿色金融与新能源-20250731
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 01:27
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Nickel**: Macro - expectations determine the direction, while fundamentals limit the elasticity [2][4] - **Stainless Steel**: Macro - sentiment dominates the margin, and the real - world situation still needs to be repaired [2][4] - **Lithium Carbonate**: It experiences wide - range fluctuations, and the disturbances at the mine end have not materialized [2][9] - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment has weakened [2][12] - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes [2][12] 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,720 yuan, down 80 yuan from the previous day; the stainless - steel main contract was 12,920 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 153,323 lots, an increase of 33,388 lots from the previous day, and the stainless - steel main contract was 153,403 lots, an increase of 14,642 lots from the previous day [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: Events include Canada's Ontario province potentially halting nickel exports to the US, the trial production of an Indonesian nickel - iron project, environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park, changes in Indonesia's mining quota policy, and production suspensions in some Indonesian nickel - iron smelting parks [4][5][6] - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel trend intensity is 0, and stainless - steel trend intensity is 0 [8] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 70,600 yuan, down 240 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 792,909 lots, an increase of 48,749 lots from the previous day; the open interest was 272,753 lots, a decrease of 27,867 lots from the previous day [9] - **Macro and Industry News**: SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price decreased. Greenbushes and Pilbara released their production and sales data and 2026 fiscal - year plans [9][10][11] - **Trend Intensity**: Lithium carbonate trend intensity is - 1 [11] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2509 contract was 9,285 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 605,161 lots; the open interest was 242,677 lots, a decrease of 34,057 lots from the previous day. The closing price of the PS2509 contract was 54,705 yuan/ton, an increase of 3,900 yuan from the previous day [12] - **Macro and Industry News**: The US will partially cancel trade tariffs on certain small - scale solar equipment imported from China [13] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon and polysilicon is - 1 [14]
建信期货镍日报-20250730
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 01:47
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The nickel market remains in an oversupply situation, with the short - term market dominated by macro logic. The overall oversupply pattern is still significant, and the nickel price is expected to be weak. The upstream nickel ore supply is expected to be loose, the support from iron plants and stainless steel is limited, and the battery - grade nickel sulfate price has rebounded. [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - The main contract of Shanghai nickel, 2509, closed down 0.85% at 121,800, and the total open interest of the index decreased by 3,705 to 174,585 lots. [7] - The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines and Indonesia is expected to be loose, and the ore price is likely to fall. [7] - The support from nickel iron plants and the stainless - steel market is limited. The cost of nickel iron plants is high, and some Indonesian production lines have switched to producing high - grade nickel matte. The stainless - steel market is weak due to the traditional off - season and high inventory. [7] - The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate continued to rise, reaching 27,370 yuan/ton on the 29th, supported by the rigid replenishment demand of precursors and low inventory of nickel salt plants. [7] 3.2行业要闻 - Indonesia's Danantara is exploring investment opportunities in the nickel downstream industry, considering acquiring the GNI smelter. It plans to prepare an investment plan of over $20 billion and provide about $60 million in medium - term financing through a syndicated loan. [8][10] - Bulgaria has launched the largest operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 MW/496.2 MWh. [9] - A research team in Turkey has developed a TOPCon solar cell with nickel contact and low silver usage, which can significantly reduce production costs. [9] - Apatura has obtained planning permission for a 100 - MW battery energy storage system project in Scotland, with a total approved storage capacity of over 1.6 GW. [9]
国泰君安期货研究周报:绿色金融与新能源-20250727
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-27 12:52
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Nickel prices are expected to show a range - bound oscillation with long - short game. The macro - policy expectations and fundamental verification may fluctuate, and the short - term Indonesian policy news has limited impact on the market [4]. - Stainless steel prices are dominated by macro - sentiment at the margin, and the real - world fundamentals have poor elasticity. The market is expected to follow the macro - sentiment direction with a range - bound logic [5]. - For industrial silicon, pay attention to the resumption rhythm of upstream factories. The market sentiment is hyped, and the fundamentals have support, but the disk may correct next week [31]. - Polysilicon is in a policy - dominated market with a short - term callback drive. The market is trading on the policy expectations of "anti - involution" [32]. - For lithium carbonate, there are large differences in the market's view on the impact of "anti - involution" on production, and the price will have wide - range fluctuations [66]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Nickel - **Fundamentals**: Macro and news factors jointly disturb, and nickel prices may range - bound. The policy expectations of macro - adjustment, supply optimization, and elimination of backward production capacity are fermenting, but the fundamentals and macro - expectations may deviate. The short - term Indonesian policy news is within market expectations [4]. - **Reality**: The support of nickel ore is weakening, the short - term inventory of refined nickel is stable, but the expected increase in low - cost supply has a drag effect. The inventory of nickel - iron is high, but the marginal restocking slightly repairs the price [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 135 tons to 39,114 tons, LME nickel inventory decreased by 3,654 tons to 203,922 tons [6]. - **Market News**: There are various policy - related news from Indonesia, such as the APNI's suggestion on the HPM formula and the possible change of the RKAB approval cycle [9]. Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: Macro - sentiment dominates the marginal direction of steel prices, and the real - world fundamentals have poor elasticity. The macro - policy expectations on the supply - side boost the market, but specific policy guidance is needed for a trend - upward movement [5]. - **Supply - demand**: It shows a double - weak pattern. The negative feedback leads to a decline in supply, and the inventory is slightly reduced. The production and demand data of China and Indonesia show certain changes [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: The total social inventory of stainless steel decreased by 2.54% week - on - week, and the inventory of different types of stainless steel also decreased [8]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - **Price Movement**: The disk is oscillating strongly, and the spot price has increased. The Friday closing price is 9,725 yuan/ton, and the spot prices in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia have also risen [27]. - **Supply - demand Fundamentals**: The industry inventory is de - stocked again. The supply side has a marginal increase in weekly production, and the demand side has stable short - term demand from downstream industries [28]. - **后市观点**: Pay attention to the resumption rhythm of upstream factories. The disk may correct next week, but the improved fundamentals will support the downside [31]. Polysilicon - **Price Movement**: The disk has risen significantly, and the spot quotation is high. The Friday closing price is 51,025 yuan/ton, and there is some high - price成交 in the spot market [27]. - **Supply - demand Fundamentals**: The short - term weekly production has a marginal increase, and the upstream inventory is de - stocked. The demand side has a decline in silicon wafer production due to terminal factors [29]. - **后市观点**: It is in a policy - dominated market with a short - term callback drive. The market is trading on the supply - side changes brought by "anti - involution" [32]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Movement**: The main contract has risen rapidly with significant pull - backs. The 2509 contract closed at 80,520 yuan/ton, and the spot price also increased [63]. - **Supply - demand Fundamentals**: The inventory continues to increase. The supply side has an increase in lithium concentrate price, and there are differences in the market's view on the impact of "anti - involution" on production. The demand side has weak purchasing willingness at high prices [64]. - **后市观点**: There are large differences between long and short positions, and the price will have wide - range fluctuations. The market has different views on the impact of key mines' production reduction or suspension [66].
镍:宏观预期定方向,基本面限制弹性不锈钢:宏观情绪主导边际,现实面仍有待修复
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-27 12:51
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: The price is expected to show a range - bound oscillation with a tug - of - war between bulls and bears. Macro - policy expectations and fundamentals interact, and short - term Indonesian policy news has limited impact on the nickel market [4]. - Stainless steel: Macro sentiment dominates the marginal direction of steel prices, but the real - world fundamentals have poor elasticity. It is expected that the price will follow the macro sentiment and show a range - bound oscillation [5]. - Industrial silicon: The industry fundamentals still provide support, but attention should be paid to the resumption of production by upstream factories. The market may correct next week, but the improved fundamentals will support the downside [27][31]. - Polysilicon: It is in a policy - driven market, and there may be a short - term correction. The price is expected to be in the range of 45,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton next week [27][32]. - Lithium carbonate: There are large differences in the market's view on the impact of anti - involution policies on production, leading to wide - range price fluctuations. It is recommended to hold positions cautiously [63][66]. - Palm oil: The macro sentiment has faded, and the fundamentals may experience a pull - back [86]. - Soybean oil: It lacks effective driving forces, and attention should be paid to the results of Sino - US negotiations [87]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Conditions**: The nickel futures closed at 124,360 yuan/ton, and the stainless - steel futures closed at 13,030 yuan/ton. The trading volume of nickel futures was 165,710 lots, and that of stainless - steel futures was 200,473 lots [12]. - **Fundamentals**: For nickel, the support from nickel ore is weakening, and the inventory of refined nickel is stable in the short - term. For stainless steel, the supply - demand situation is weak, and the inventory has slightly decreased [4][5]. - **Market News**: There are various policy - related and project - related news from Indonesia, such as potential changes in mining quota periods and project production suspensions [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Movements**: The industrial silicon futures closed at 9,725 yuan/ton, and the polysilicon futures closed at 51,025 yuan/ton. The spot prices of both also increased [27]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Industrial silicon's industry inventory decreased, and polysilicon's upstream inventory was reduced. The supply and demand of both have their own characteristics, such as the increase in industrial silicon production in some regions and the reduction in polysilicon downstream demand [28][29]. - **Outlook**: Industrial silicon should focus on the resumption of production by upstream factories, and polysilicon may correct in the short - term due to policy factors [31][32]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trends**: The lithium carbonate 2509 contract closed at 80,520 yuan/ton, and the 2511 contract closed at 79,160 yuan/ton. The spot price was 72,900 yuan/ton [63]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: The supply of lithium carbonate may be affected by anti - involution policies, and there are differences in the market's view on its impact. The demand from downstream is weak at high prices, and the inventory continues to increase [64][65]. - **Market Outlook**: There are large differences between bulls and bears, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to hold positions cautiously [66]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Previous Week's Performance**: The palm oil 09 contract decreased by 0.31% last week, and the soybean oil 09 contract decreased by 0.20% [87]. - **Outlook**: Palm oil's macro - driven rise may face a pull - back due to weak fundamentals, and soybean oil lacks strong driving forces and should pay attention to Sino - US negotiations [86][87].
镍:宏观预期定方向,基本面限制弹性,不锈钢:宏观情绪主导边际,现实面仍有待修复
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-27 07:33
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel price is expected to fluctuate within a range due to the resonance of macro and news factors, with the policy expectations of macro - structural adjustment and supply optimization fermenting, but the logic between fundamental verification and macro expectations may fluctuate before clear policies on nickel are implemented. The nickel ore support is weakening, and the low - cost supply increment of refined nickel and high inventory in the ferronickel segment have an impact on the price [1]. - The marginal direction of stainless steel prices is dominated by macro sentiment, and the elasticity of the real - world fundamental logic is poor. The macro policy expectations on the domestic supply - side boost commodities, but a clear policy is needed for a trend - upward movement. The supply - demand of stainless steel shows a double - weak pattern, and the price is expected to follow the macro sentiment and fluctuate within a range [2]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Nickel Fundamentals - **Macro and News Factors**: Macro policy expectations are fermenting, but no clear policies on nickel have been implemented. Short - term policy news from Indonesia is frequent but within market expectations. APNI suggests re - evaluating the HPM formula for nickel ore, and the Indonesian government may change the RKAB approval cycle [1]. - **Real - world Situation**: The support of nickel ore is weakening, with the premium starting to decline in July after an increase in Indonesian quota approvals, and the fire - method cash cost has decreased by 1.4%. Refined nickel inventory is stable in the short term, but the expected increase in low - cost supply is a drag. Ferronickel inventory is high, but marginal restocking slightly boosts the price [1]. 3.2 Stainless Steel Fundamentals - **Macro and Real - world Logic**: Macro sentiment dominates the marginal direction of steel prices. The real - world fundamental logic has poor elasticity. The macro policy expectations on the supply - side boost commodities, but specific policies are needed for a trend - upward movement [2]. - **Supply - demand Situation**: The supply - demand of stainless steel shows a double - weak pattern. The resonance production cuts in China and Indonesia from June to July have alleviated the over - supply situation. The apparent demand in June increased by 2% year - on - year, and the production in June increased by 4% year - on - year, while the production plan for July decreased [2]. 3.3 Inventory Changes - **Refined Nickel Inventory**: China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 135 tons to 39,114 tons, with an increase in warehouse receipt inventory and a decrease in spot inventory. LME nickel inventory decreased by 3,654 tons to 203,922 tons [3]. - **Ferronickel Inventory**: The ferronickel inventory in mid - July was 37,534 tons, up 50% year - on - year and down 11% month - on - month [5]. - **Stainless Steel Inventory**: On July 24, 2025, the total social inventory of stainless steel decreased by 2.54% week - on - week. The inventory of various types of stainless steel also decreased [5]. - **Nickel Ore Inventory**: The nickel ore inventory at 14 Chinese ports increased by 395,100 wet tons to 9.8787 million wet tons [5]. 3.4 Market News - **Trade - related News**: In March, the governor of Ontario, Canada, proposed to stop exporting nickel to the US in response to US tariff threats [6]. - **Project - related News**: In April, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI ferronickel RKEF, EPC - contracted by China ENFI, entered the trial - production stage [6]. - **Environmental - related News**: Environmental violations were found in the IMIP in Indonesia, and possible fines may be imposed on the verified illegal companies [6]. - **Policy - related News**: Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year, and mining companies need to resubmit the 2026 RKAB starting from October 2025 [6][7]. - **Production - related News**: Due to long - term production losses, an Indonesian ferronickel smelting industrial park has suspended the production of all EF production lines, which is expected to affect the monthly ferronickel output by about 1,900 metal tons [7]. 3.5 Weekly Key Data Tracking - **Futures Data**: Data on the closing prices, trading volumes, and spreads of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel futures, as well as the prices and spreads of various nickel - related products such as imported nickel, ferronickel, and nickel ore are provided [9].
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20250725
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 02:06
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report presents the market trends and forecasts of various commodities on July 25, 2025, including precious metals, base metals, energy, and agricultural products. Each commodity has its own unique trend influenced by factors such as supply - demand, macro - economic news, and policy changes [2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to oscillate and decline, with a trend strength of 1 [2][7][9]. - **Silver**: Expected to break through and rise, with a trend strength of 1 [2][7][9]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Lacks a clear driving force, with prices in a state of oscillation. The trend strength is 0 [2][11][13]. - **Zinc**: Prices are turning weak, and the trend strength is 0 [2][14][16]. - **Lead**: High domestic total inventory restricts price rebounds, and the trend strength is 0 [2][17][18]. - **Tin**: Prices are disturbed by floods in Wa State. The trend strength is - 1 [2][20][23]. - **Aluminum**: Short - term oscillation. Aluminum oxide prices are strengthening, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend strengths are 0 for aluminum, 1 for aluminum oxide, and 0 for cast aluminum alloy [2][25][27]. - **Nickel**: Macro - sentiment boosts expectations, but reality limits elasticity. The trend strength is 0. Stainless steel is dominated by macro - sentiment at the margin, and fundamentals determine elasticity, with a trend strength of 0 [2][28][32]. Energy - related Commodities - **Carbonate Lithium**: Supply - side disturbances intensify, and it may be strong in the short term, with a trend strength of 1 [2][33][35]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Warehouse receipts are being cleared, and the market shows resistance to decline. The trend strength is 0. Polysilicon is affected more by policy disturbances, and attention should be paid to the upside space, with a trend strength of 1 [2][37][39]. - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - expectations, it oscillates strongly, with a trend strength of 1 [2][40][41]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both are in a state of wide - range oscillation, with trend strengths of 0 for rebar and 0 for hot - rolled coil [2][43][46]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silico - Manganese**: Overseas mining companies' quotation increases lead to wide - range oscillations, with trend strengths of 0 for both [2][47][49]. - **Coke**: After three rounds of price increases, it oscillates strongly, with a trend strength of 1. Coking coal has strengthened supply - policy expectation constraints and oscillates strongly, with a trend strength of 1 [2][51][53]. - **Steam Coal**: Daily consumption is recovering, and it oscillates and stabilizes, with a trend strength of 0 [2][55][58]. Others - **Log**: Oscillates repeatedly [2][59].