1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic operation in September was stable, but due to the rising year - on - year base, it was difficult to have an unexpectedly high reading. The GDP growth rate in the third quarter was expected to be around 4.7% [2][53]. - For the bond market, the "broad credit" policy was intensified in the fourth quarter, and it was expected that the annual economic growth target could be achieved. Short - term attention should be paid to the effects of new policy - based financial instruments, and October was an important window period. The bond market should look for structural opportunities in October, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield above 1.8% gradually had allocation value, with 1.9% as the upper - limit protection for the year [2][54]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Inflation - **CPI**: Affected by high - temperature rainfall and the holiday effect, food prices rose, while non - food items were affected by falling oil prices and might be weaker than the seasonal level. It was expected that the CPI in September would have a month - on - month increase of about 0.3% and a year - on - year increase to around - 0.1%. Specifically, the food item was expected to have a month - on - month increase of 0.9% and a year - on - year decrease to around - 4.2%, and the non - food item was expected to have a month - on - month increase of around 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of around 0.8% [7][12]. - **PPI**: Due to the weak terminal demand for domestic bulk commodities, the "Golden September" performance was rather dull. It was expected that the PPI in September would have a month - on - month decrease of around - 0.1%, and the sharp rise in the carry - over effect would push the year - on - year increase to around - 2.4% [16]. 3.2 Foreign Trade - **Export**: It was expected that the export growth rate in September would remain stable at around 4.5%. In terms of price, the decline of the CCFI index year - on - year in September narrowed significantly compared with August, indicating that the price drag might improve. In terms of quantity, the year - on - year growth rates of port container throughput and cargo throughput in September were basically the same as those in August. Also, the growth rate of the feed - processing trade, which led exports by about one month, remained stable in August, so the export reading in September was likely to remain stable compared with August [21]. - **Import**: It was expected that the import growth rate in September would be around 0.8%. The year - on - year increase of the CRB spot index in September narrowed, and the year - on - year decline of the CDFI index monthly average also widened slightly, indicating that the supporting effect of price on imports might continue to weaken [21]. 3.3 Industry The industrial growth rate in September was expected to drop to around 4.9%. Although the production sub - index of the PMI in September increased seasonally, the month - on - month increase was lower than the seasonal level. Considering the short - term impact of "anti - involution" and important events on the production rhythm and the fact that high - frequency data of downstream investment demand did not show super - seasonal performance, the year - on - year industrial added value was expected to decline slightly [23]. 3.4 Investment - **Manufacturing Investment**: The cumulative growth rate of manufacturing investment from January to September was expected to be around 4.3%. The boosting effect of the "Two - New" policies on manufacturing investment had been weakening since the third quarter, and the growth rate of equipment purchases had been falling from July to August. Some enterprises might delay their expansion plans under the promotion of "anti - involution", and the uncertainty of Sino - US economic and trade frictions continued to postpone, which might lead to a temporary slowdown in manufacturing investment [28]. - **Infrastructure Investment (excluding electricity)**: The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) from January to September was expected to be around 1.1%. According to the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the PMI of civil engineering construction, which represented infrastructure investment, was below 50% in September, indicating that the short - term growth of investment - related construction activities was still weak. It was expected that the single - month year - on - year growth of infrastructure investment would remain negative, and the cumulative growth rate would continue to decline to around 1.1% [28]. - **Real Estate Investment**: The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate investment from January to September was expected to be around - 13.4%. In terms of sales, high - frequency data showed that the year - on - year growth rate of the transaction area of new homes in 30 cities turned positive, and the growth rate of the sales area bottomed out due to the low - base effect. In terms of investment, the construction PMI showed that the activity index of housing construction was below 50%, indicating that the real estate investment growth rate might continue to decline to - 13.4% [32]. - **Overall Fixed - Asset Investment**: It was comprehensively judged that the fixed - asset investment growth rate in September would be around 0.2% [35]. 3.5 Social Retail The year - on - year growth rate of social retail was expected to drop to around 4.3%. According to the data from the Passenger Car Association, the base in September last year increased slightly, and the slowdown of subsidy issuance in some regions led to a slowdown in automobile sales. Considering the high base of durable - goods retail caused by the "trade - in" policy in the same period last year, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail in September was expected to continue to decline [37]. 3.6 Financial Data - **Credit**: It was expected that the new credit in September would be about 150 billion yuan, slightly lower than the level of the same period last year. The new social financing was about 3.1 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 66 billion yuan. The residents' credit in September was expected to be around 25 billion yuan, a slight increase compared with the same period last year [45]. - **Components of Social Financing**: In the off - balance - sheet items, trust loans in September might increase slightly by 2 billion yuan, entrusted loans might decrease slightly by about 1.5 billion yuan, undiscounted bills might increase by 10.72 billion yuan, the loan write - off scale might be 17.52 billion yuan, and the net financing scale of credit ABS was around 1.43 billion yuan. In direct financing, the new financing amount of corporate bonds was 8.47 billion yuan, and stock financing might be 4.16 billion yuan. The net financing scale of government bonds in the month might be close to 1.2 trillion yuan, and its year - on - year support for social financing might weaken [45]. - **M2 Growth Rate**: Affected by the high base of last year, it was expected that the year - on - year growth rate of M2 would decline to around 8.4% [48].

Group 1: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Citigroup economists expect a cooling in core CPI for September, projecting a rise of 0.28%, down from 0.35% in August, with housing inflation easing overall service inflation [1] - Barclays highlights that the rise in gold prices reflects increasing market distrust in the existing fiscal and monetary order, with major economies' debt exceeding 100% of GDP and a lack of political will for fiscal consolidation [1] - Dutch International Group anticipates a continued bull market for gold, forecasting an average price of $4,000 per ounce in Q4, driven by central bank purchases and geopolitical risks [1] Group 2: Bond Market and Eurozone Stability - Dutch International Group reports that the low volatility environment in the Eurozone makes current bond yield spreads highly attractive, with the 10-year French and Italian bond spreads tightening to 82 basis points [2] - The political crisis in France serves as a warning for Europe, with ongoing challenges in managing rising government debt and the need for structural reforms [2] - Mitsubishi UFJ analysts suggest that if France avoids early elections, the euro may regain an upward trend against the dollar [2] Group 3: Currency and Interest Rate Predictions - Dutch International Group indicates that the yen is becoming the preferred funding currency for carry trades, as expectations for low interest rates persist [4] - Capital Economics forecasts that the USD/JPY exchange rate will end at 150 by the end of 2025, with a potential rebound for the yen expected once the Bank of Japan resumes rate hikes [4] - Mizuho Securities maintains that the Bank of Japan will adopt a hawkish stance in the short term, despite reduced urgency for rate hikes [4] Group 4: Gold Market Projections - China International Capital Corporation predicts that gold prices could exceed $4,500 per ounce in Q1 of next year, driven by rising expectations for Fed rate cuts and geopolitical tensions [5] - The report emphasizes that while short-term factors may fade, the long-term bullish fundamentals for gold remain intact [5] Group 5: Energy Storage and Lithium Battery Industry - CITIC Securities identifies that the energy storage sector is at a pivotal point, with significant cost reductions and policy support driving demand and market penetration [6] - The report highlights that the lithium battery supply chain is expected to improve significantly as energy storage demand accelerates [6] Group 6: Superhard Materials and Coal Sector - CITIC Securities notes that recent export controls on superhard materials may accelerate industry consolidation, leading to potential price increases in the long term [7] - The coal sector is projected to experience sustained excess returns due to balanced supply and demand dynamics, with potential price upside in the upcoming quarter [7] Group 7: AI Industry Developments - CITIC Securities observes that advancements in AI technology are exceeding expectations, with significant progress in commercialization and monetization [7] - The report emphasizes the growing importance of computing power in the AI industry, highlighting opportunities in related sectors such as optical modules and fiber optics [7]

Group 1 - Understanding the reasonable pricing of the bond market may require comprehension of the overdrawn market conditions in December 2024, where the 10-year government bond yield dropped from 2.02% to 1.68%, a decrease of 35 basis points, indicating a significant overdraw [7][8] - The financial system's lack of long-term capital is a key issue, with the proportion of government bonds with maturities over 7 years increasing from 33% in 2021 to over 43% in 2025, while the growth of long-term capital in the financial system has not kept pace [11][12] - The current bond market's characteristics can be understood through a game-theoretic perspective, where the slow duration reduction may be influenced by market sentiment, leading to a disconnection between market performance and fundamentals [14][15] Group 2 - The recent growth in credit bond ETFs is driven by policy support, with the scale reaching 485.9 billion yuan by the end of September 2025, and the second batch of 14 technology innovation bond ETFs launched, indicating a trend towards expansion [22][23] - The resilience of credit bonds in the third quarter can be attributed to a favorable funding environment, investor reluctance to sell, and the expansion of credit bond ETFs, with expectations for continued fluctuations in credit spreads in the fourth quarter [25][26] - The "Southbound Bond Connect" policy is expected to enhance the liquidity of offshore bonds, with the recent regulatory changes allowing for increased issuance and trading of offshore bonds, which may provide investment opportunities in high-quality local government bonds and international institution bonds [28]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has returned to a weak state, with government bond futures declining across the board, and the market is expected to experience weak fluctuations post-holiday, with potential for slight rebounds due to policy changes and market dynamics in the fourth quarter [1][6]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed down, with the 30-year main contract falling by 0.49% to 113.970, the 10-year main contract down by 0.06% to 107.980, and the 5-year main contract down by 0.09% to 105.650 [2]. - The interbank major interest rate bonds weakened, with the 10-year policy bank bond yield rising by 0.75 basis points to 1.9675%, and the 30-year government bond yield increasing by 1.5 basis points to 2.139% [2]. Primary Market - The Ministry of Finance reported that the weighted average yield for 2-year and 50-year government bonds was 1.4526% and 2.2977%, respectively, with bid-to-cover ratios of 2.48 and 3.62 [3]. Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 4,090 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1,910 billion yuan for the day [5]. - Short-term Shibor rates collectively declined, with the overnight rate down by 0.3 basis points to 1.319% [5]. Institutional Perspectives - Guosheng Securities anticipates a potential recovery in the bond market during the fourth quarter, with a gradual reduction in yield spreads and a preference for leveraging and barbell strategies [6]. - CITIC Securities suggests that liquidity gaps in October are manageable, and if the central bank implements interest rate cuts or resumes government bond purchases, there may be further downward pressure on rates [6]. - Changjiang Securities notes that while consumer spending has shown signs of recovery, the sustainability of this trend and the recovery of corporate profits remain uncertain [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The panic in the bond market in September has been largely released, and the official version of the redemption fee new rule is unlikely to be implemented in the short - term. The current fundamental environment remains weak, and the certainty of loose liquidity is relatively high. Without special unexpected events, the market's room for further adjustment is limited. However, for interest rates to break through the current trading range, the market needs to reach a new consensus on the weakening fundamentals forcing monetary easing. Given the possible further slowdown of economic data in Q4 and the potential restart of central bank bond purchases in October, this consensus may form in October [2][6]. - Since 2022, due to insufficient endogenous power, the economy has shown a pattern of short - term improvement after the implementation of stimulus policies and weakening again during the observation period. This pattern may continue until the real estate market clears. Future fiscal and monetary policies may need to work together to stabilize demand, and the low - interest - rate environment may persist for a long time [2][37]. - The central bank maintained a relatively loose attitude in September. In October, the exogenous disturbances to the capital market mainly come from the tax period and the large - scale maturity of policy tools. As long as the central bank's attitude remains unchanged, the impact of tool maturity is limited. There is still a possibility of RRR cuts and interest rate cuts in Q4, and liquidity loosening may be the greatest certainty for the current bond market [2][3][49]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Domestic Holiday Travel Rebounds but Has Limited Impact on Consumption; Overseas Market Sees Coexistence of Risk - Aversion Sentiment and Soft - Landing Expectations - In September, economic data continued to decline. The manufacturing PMI in September rebounded slightly but remained below the boom - bust line, with demand recovery still weak [7]. - During the holiday, domestic travel numbers increased, but the growth rate of travel spending was relatively slow, and the overall impact on consumption was uncertain. New home sales during the National Day holiday were weak, while second - hand home sales improved slightly compared to previous years. Port freight and container freight volume growth rates were generally stable [12]. - Overseas, the U.S. government shutdown during the National Day holiday increased risk - aversion sentiment, leading to a rise in gold prices. However, the U.S. stock market was not significantly affected, and the U.S. bond yields declined slightly. The co - rise of stocks, bonds, foreign exchange, and commodities in the U.S. market reflects the combination of short - term risk - aversion sentiment and medium - term economic soft - landing expectations. The future direction of asset prices depends on the Fed's balance between the economy and inflation, which is difficult to determine in the short term [25][27]. 3.2 The Pattern of Fundamental Weakening During the Policy Observation Period May Persist; Future Fiscal and Monetary Policies Need to Collaborate to Stabilize Demand - Since 2022, the economic cycle pattern has changed. Although real estate sales have declined significantly, the debt accumulated by residents, developers, and urban investment platforms during the real estate up - cycle still exists. If housing prices do not turn upward, the adjustment of the asset - liability structure of relevant entities may still put pressure on short - term demand [28]. - From 2024Q4 to 2025Q1, the economy expanded due to fiscal policy and large - scale credit expansion. However, since Q2, economic momentum has gradually declined, and the anti - involution policy has also brought new pressure. To break this pattern before the real estate market clears, continuous fiscal stimulus to boost consumption may be required [34]. - Although policies have increasingly emphasized consumption, the current measures are relatively limited compared to previous large - scale investments. With the marginal weakening of the "trade - in" policy, consumption may face greater downward pressure in Q4. Future policies may maintain a "support without over - stimulation" tone, and the pattern of short - term improvement after policy implementation and subsequent weakening may continue [37]. 3.3 Liquidity Loosening May Be the Greatest Certainty for the Bond Market - In September, investors were more sensitive to the capital market and the central bank's operations. Although the central bank did not continuously increase net investment when capital prices rose, the average values of DR001 and DR007 in September were still slightly lower than 1.4% and 1.5%, indicating that the central bank maintained a relatively loose attitude, which may be related to exogenous disturbances and tool - positioning adjustments [38]. - This year, the central bank's policy tool investment has been at a historically high level, mainly to offset exogenous factors such as government deposits, central bank bond maturity, and resident cash withdrawals. Since Q3, the central bank has shifted to using longer - term tools, and may have relaxed control over short - term capital market fluctuations [40][41]. - In October, the exogenous disturbances to the capital market mainly come from the tax period and the large - scale maturity of policy tools. However, the reduction in government bond supply in October may ease the tax - period disturbances. There is still a possibility of RRR cuts and interest rate cuts in Q4, and the central bank may need to observe the situation. The central values of DR001 and DR007 in October are expected to be slightly lower than 1.4% and 1.5%, with a higher downward risk [49]. 3.4 The Bond Market in October: Be Prepared - The adjustment of the bond market in September was mainly due to the panic of trading desks caused by concerns about institutional liabilities. The spreads of policy - financial bonds, credit bonds, and perpetual bonds widened significantly. However, the adjustment was not due to liquidity pressure but rather the panic of trading desks. The scale of institutions such as wealth management remained stable [51]. - During the selling process of trading desks, the net buying of allocation - oriented institutions such as insurance companies, large banks, and wealth management companies increased, stabilizing interest rates. The weak sentiment of non - bank institutions and the decline in their leverage willingness have released potential risks to some extent [54]. - Since a large amount of trading capital has a cost around 1.75% - 1.8%, the market may experience fluctuations during the recovery process. For interest rates to break through the current trading range, a new consensus on the weakening fundamentals forcing monetary easing is needed. It is recommended to maintain a certain level of leverage in October, use 2 - 3 - year medium - and high - grade credit bonds as the core portfolio, retain some 10 - year treasury bond positions, and increase positions after clear signals. Short - term trading can also target the recovery of over - adjusted perpetual bonds, while the operation of ultra - long - term bonds needs to observe the trend of the equity market [57].

Core Insights - Understanding the reasonable pricing of the bond market may require comprehending the overdrawn market conditions expected in December 2024 [11][12] - The financial system's lack of long-term capital is a significant concern, with potential solutions including reserve requirement cuts and central bank purchases of long-term bonds [16][17][18] - The current bond market characteristics can be interpreted through a game-theoretic lens, where market sentiment may decouple from fundamentals and liquidity [19][20] - The steepening of the yield curve indicates a potential shift in the mid-term logic of the bond market, influenced by factors such as anti-involution policies and the relative attractiveness of equities [27][28] - The growth of credit bond ETFs is notable, with structural demand expected to persist, although short-term spread compression may be limited [29][30] - The resilience of credit bonds in Q3 can be attributed to a favorable funding environment and investor reluctance to sell, with expectations for continued volatility in Q4 [32][33][34] - Recent policies regarding the "southbound bond connect" are expected to enhance the liquidity and attractiveness of offshore bonds [36] - The convertible bond market is anticipated to see excess returns primarily from sectors with strong growth narratives, such as AI and humanoid robotics [37][38] - The current strategy for convertible bonds emphasizes equal-weighted allocations with a focus on high-growth individual securities [38] - The convertible bond market presents both risks and opportunities, with institutional actions providing potential entry points during market corrections [40] Summary by Sections Understanding Reasonable Pricing in the Bond Market - The divergence between long-term interest rates and funding rates since May is largely attributed to the anticipated overdrawn conditions in December 2024 [11][12] Financial System's Lack of Long-Term Capital - The steepening yield curve since Q3 is linked to the financial system's insufficient long-term capital, exacerbated by high government bond supply and strong equity market performance [16][17] Game-Theoretic Understanding of the Bond Market - The slow adjustment of duration in the current bond market reflects a game-theoretic mindset among investors, impacting the relationship between market behavior and underlying fundamentals [19][20] Mid-Term Logic Shift in the Bond Market - The bond market is likely to face a mid-term logic shift starting in 2025, driven by anti-involution policies and changing investor preferences between equities and bonds [27][28] Growth of Credit Bond ETFs - The expansion of credit bond ETFs is supported by regulatory changes and a low-interest environment, with expectations for continued growth in scale and number [29][30] Q3 Credit Bond Resilience and Q4 Outlook - The strong performance of credit bonds in Q3 is attributed to a favorable funding environment and investor behavior, with expectations for continued fluctuations in Q4 [32][33][34] "Southbound Bond Connect" Policy Implications - Recent policy developments regarding the "southbound bond connect" are expected to improve the liquidity and attractiveness of offshore bonds, enhancing market dynamics [36] Convertible Bond Market Insights - The convertible bond market is expected to see excess returns from sectors with strong growth potential, with a focus on strategic allocations [37][38] Convertible Bond Strategy - The recommended strategy for convertible bonds involves equal-weighted allocations while emphasizing high-growth individual securities for enhanced returns [38] Risks and Opportunities in the Convertible Bond Market - The convertible bond market presents both risks and opportunities, with institutional actions creating favorable entry points during market corrections [40]

Group 1 - Gold prices reached a historic high, with December futures contracts dropping by $70.8 to close at $3999.7, remaining above spot gold prices by over $10 [1] - The market sentiment for precious metals is bolstered by the U.S. government shutdown and various geopolitical risks, providing strong support for gold prices in the short term [1] - The Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting minutes indicate a potential for further interest rate cuts this year, with predictions suggesting two 0.25 percentage point cuts by year-end [1] Group 2 - The bond market is on alert as delayed U.S. economic data is expected to increase volatility, with traders preparing for potential market disruptions in the $30 trillion U.S. Treasury market [2] - A ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas has been reached, marking a significant step towards ending a two-year conflict, which may influence geopolitical stability [2] Group 3 - Technical analysis shows that gold futures have a significant bullish advantage in the short term, with the next upward target being a close above the key resistance level of $4100.00 [3] - Key resistance levels for gold futures are identified at $4081.00 and $4100.00, while support levels are at $4019.20 and $4000.00 [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The economy shows mixed trends with GDP growing, but some indicators like CPI in negative territory. The holiday consumption market has a good momentum, and policies are expected to support economic growth in Q4 [1][15][16]. - The metal market is affected by various factors such as export controls and macro - economic trends. Copper prices are expected to rise, and silver has reached a historical high [4][5][7]. - The bond market has a positive start after the holiday, with yields mostly down. Different institutions have different outlooks on the bond market's future trends [19][26][27]. - The stock market has a strong performance after the holiday, with A - shares rising and certain sectors having significant movements. Stock ETFs have attracted large - scale capital inflows [30]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data - GDP in Q2 2025 had a 5.2% year - on - year growth at constant prices, slightly lower than the previous quarter [1]. - In September 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up from the previous month, while the non - manufacturing PMI was 50%, down from the previous month [1]. - In August 2025, the CPI was - 0.4% year - on - year, and the PPI was - 2.9% year - on - year [1]. - In August 2025, the social financing scale increment was 25668 billion yuan, and the new RMB loans of financial institutions were 5900 billion yuan [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption technical requirements for 2026 - 2027 are adjusted, and the pure - electric range of plug - in hybrid and extended - range passenger cars is increased [2]. - The added value of small and medium - sized industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 7.6% year - on - year in the first eight months, outperforming large enterprises [2][15]. - Regulatory measures are taken to address price disorderly competition in some industries [2][14]. - Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts [3]. 3.2.2 Metal - China implements export controls on multiple metal - related items and includes foreign entities in the unreliable entity list [4][14]. - London basic metals rose on October 9, 2025, with LME copper hitting $11,000 per ton for the first time since May 2024 [4]. - Spot silver prices reached a record high, and silver futures have risen by over 70% this year [5]. - The global refined copper market is expected to have a surplus in 2025 and a shortage in 2026 [6]. - High - grade copper premiums in Europe are expected to reach a record high in 2026, and Goldman Sachs raises its copper price forecast for 2026 [6][7]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Zangge Mining's subsidiary obtains new mining rights for associated minerals such as lithium [8]. - Copper production of some major mines in Chile decreased in August 2025 [8][9]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Russia destroys 60% of Ukraine's natural gas production capacity before winter [10]. - The US expects India to reduce Russian oil purchases [10]. - Saudi Arabia sets the official selling price of Arabian light crude oil to the US in November [10]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - The State Development and Reform Commission releases the application and allocation rules for grain import tariff quotas in 2026 [11]. - Pig prices have fallen below the cost line and may continue to decline [11]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 5 decreased by 6.62% month - on - month [11]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On October 9, 2025, the central bank carried out a 6120 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net withdrawal of 14513 billion yuan [12]. - The central bank conducts a 11000 - billion - yuan 3 - month买断式 reverse repurchase operation, with a net investment of 3000 billion yuan in October [13]. 3.3.2 Key News - China strengthens extraterritorial jurisdiction through export controls and lists foreign entities [4][14]. - Regulatory measures are taken to address price disorderly competition [2][14]. - The holiday consumption market has a good growth momentum [15]. - Policies are expected to support economic growth in Q4 [16]. - The bond ETF market has expanded significantly this year [16]. - Some securities firms raise capital through fixed - increase and bond issuance [17]. - Some bond - related events include debt maturity, new borrowing, and disciplinary actions [18]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Review - After the holiday, the bond market has a positive start, with yields mostly down and futures up [19]. - Different bond varieties have different price movements in the exchange and over - the - counter markets [19][20]. - Interest rates in the money market show mixed trends [20][21]. - Bond issuance yields and related multiples are announced [22]. - European and US bond yields mostly rise [23]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB depreciates against the US dollar, while the off - shore RMB appreciates [24]. - The US dollar index rises, and most non - US currencies fall [24]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Huatai Fixed Income believes that the bond market will be in a weak shock in October, and investors should pay attention to potential opportunities [26]. - CITIC Securities predicts the bond market trend based on policy and liquidity factors [26][27]. - CITIC Securities analyzes the impact of the US government shutdown and the expected decline of Chinese deposit rates [27]. - Hongze Fixed Income Ye Qing comments on the investment risks of science - tech enterprises [27]. 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - Multiple bonds are scheduled for listing, issuance, payment, and principal - and - interest repayment on October 10, 2025 [28][29]. 3.4 Stock Market Key News - A - shares perform strongly after the holiday, with some sectors having significant gains and losses [30]. - The Hong Kong stock market has mixed performance, with some stocks having large net purchases or sales [30]. - Stock ETFs have attracted over 1100 billion yuan in September [30]. - The online issuance of Shanghai ETFs will be optimized [31].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Overseas macro: The US government is in a shutdown, and Japan is likely to have its first female prime minister. A shutdown over 15 days may affect the release of important economic data. If Koike Sanae is elected, it may impact Sino - Japanese relations and market risk preference [7]. - Domestic macro: The domestic economy continues to stabilize. The manufacturing PMI is 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points month - on - month. The non - manufacturing PMI drops 0.3 points to 50.0. During the holiday, consumption and travel were active [7]. - Asset view: In October, domestic assets benefit from policy expectations and ample liquidity. Overseas, the focus is on the Fed's October rate cut and the BoJ's inaction. The weak - dollar trend continues but with a slower slope. In the fourth quarter, maintain the asset allocation order of equities > commodities > bonds [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market - **Stock Index Futures**: All major stock index futures showed gains. The CSI 300 futures had a daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and year - to - date increase of 1.54%, 1.54%, 1.54%, 1.54%, and 19.59% respectively. The Shanghai 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures also had positive performances [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Most treasury bond futures had small increases, except for the 2 - year treasury bond futures with a year - to - date decline of 0.56% [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was flat on the day, with different trends in other currency pairs. For example, the euro - US dollar exchange rate remained unchanged on the day, while the US dollar - Japanese yen exchange rate had a weekly increase of 3.52% [3]. - **Interest Rates**: Some interest rates had minor changes, such as the 10 - year Chinese treasury bond yield decreasing by 2.7 bp [3]. 3.2 Hot Industries - Industries like construction, steel, and non - ferrous metals had positive daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and year - to - date performances. For example, the non - ferrous metals index had a year - to - date increase of 33.42% [3]. - Some industries such as food and beverage, automotive, and defense and military had mixed performances, with some showing daily declines but positive long - term trends [3]. 3.3 Overseas Commodities - **Energy**: Crude oil futures (NYMEX WTI and ICE Brent) had small daily increases but year - to - date declines. Natural gas prices were mostly down, with NYMEX natural gas having a daily decline of 5.14% [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver had significant year - to - date increases, with COMEX gold up 53.85% year - to - date [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Most non - ferrous metals showed positive long - term trends, but some had daily fluctuations [3]. - **Agricultural Products**: Agricultural products had diverse performances. For example, CBOT soybeans had a year - to - date increase of 1.96%, while ICE 2 - cotton had a year - to - date decline of 5.03% [3]. 3.4 Other Commodities - **Shipping**: The container shipping route to Europe had a significant daily decline of 50.38% [4]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver continued to show positive trends, with silver having a year - to - date increase of 49.52% [4]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Copper, tin, and other metals had positive price movements, while some like alumina had a weak fundamental situation [4]. - **Black Building Materials**: Most black building materials showed a mixed performance, with some like iron ore having a positive year - to - date performance and others like silicon iron having a decline [4]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil had a year - to - date decline of 15.88%. Most chemical products showed a trend of price fluctuations and were in a state of supply - demand adjustment [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: Some agricultural products like soybeans and peanuts had different price trends, with peanuts having a year - to - date decline of 2.83% [4]. 3.5 Market Outlook by Sector - **Financial**: Stock markets had a shrinking - volume rebound, and bond markets remained weak. Stock index futures were expected to rise in a volatile manner, while bond futures were expected to be volatile [8]. - **Precious Metals**: Driven by dovish expectations, the prices of gold and silver were expected to rise in a volatile manner [8]. - **Shipping**: Attention was paid to the rate of freight price decline, and the container shipping route to Europe was expected to be volatile [8]. - **Black Building Materials**: A negative feedback was difficult to form, and the sector was expected to remain volatile before the holiday [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Supply disruptions continued to ferment, and most metals were expected to be volatile, with some like copper expected to rise in a volatile manner [8]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The crude oil market continued to be volatile, and the chemical market was mainly for hedging and arbitrage, with most products expected to be volatile [10]. - **Agriculture**: Affected by Argentina's tariff policy, oilseeds and meal were hit. Most agricultural products were expected to be volatile [10].

Group 1 - The total outstanding credit bond balance in China reached 30.49 trillion yuan as of September 30, 2025, with a net financing of 139.89 billion yuan in September 2025 [4] - The outstanding local government financing bonds (城投债) amounted to 15.31 trillion yuan, with a September issuance of 503.91 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.84% and a year-on-year increase of 9.78% [4] - The outstanding industrial bonds (产业债) stood at 15.18 trillion yuan, with a September issuance of 731.63 billion yuan, showing a month-on-month increase of 17.85% and a year-on-year increase of 15.04% [4] Group 2 - In September 2025, the transaction volume of local government financing bonds was 1.021 trillion yuan, with a turnover rate of 6.67% [5] - The transaction volume of industrial bonds was 1.267 trillion yuan, with a turnover rate of 8.35% [5] - The credit spreads for both local government financing bonds and industrial bonds widened compared to the previous month [5]