黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-31 市场情绪趋弱，钢价震荡运行 钢材：市场情绪趋弱，钢价震荡运行 市场分析 昨日螺纹钢期货主力合约收于3134元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3282元/吨。现货方面，昨日钢材现货成交整体一般偏 弱，环比昨日略有转弱，刚需低价拿货为主，有对昨日的补跌。全国建材成交9.32万吨。 供需与逻辑：建材供需基本面暂无矛盾，保持淡季水平。板材依旧受制于高库存压制，价格边际波动有限。短期 市场心态纠结，盘面短期切换节奏较快。关注环保及季节性减产情况、需求去库变化、利润状况、成本支撑、原 料补库、钢材出口及国内政策。 策略 单边：中性 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：市场情绪谨慎，矿价震荡运行 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡运行，最终铁矿石2605合约收盘789元/吨，较前一交易日下跌3.5元，跌幅 0.44%；现货方面，临近元旦假期，市场交投趋稳，贸易商多随行就市，钢厂维持低库存运行，补库意愿有限，采 购价格多随行就市。全国主港铁矿累计成交84.5万吨，环比下跌24.55%。 供需与逻辑：补库预期支撑 ...

新京报贝壳财经讯12月30日，盛新锂能（002240）发布公告称，公司拟通过全资子公司盛屯锂业以现金 20.8亿元收购四川启成矿业有限公司(简称"启成矿业")30%股权，交易完成后，公司持有启成矿业100% 股权。盛屯锂业和启成矿业分别持有惠绒矿业15.10%和70.97%股权。惠绒矿业拥有木绒锂矿的采矿权 证，木绒锂矿已查明Li2O资源量98.96万吨，平均品位1.62%，为四川地区锂矿品位最高的矿山之一，生 产规模为300万吨/年，目前正在积极推进矿山开发建设。 ...

Market Overview - The three major indices opened higher, with the education sector leading the gains. As of the market opening, the Shanghai Composite Index was at 3968.73, up 0.09%; the Shenzhen Component Index was at 13627.26, up 0.17%; and the ChiNext Index was at 3247.74, up 0.15% [1]. Policy Announcements - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance have allocated 625 billion yuan in special long-term bonds to support the consumption of old goods in the first batch for 2026 [1]. - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced a new policy on the value-added tax for individuals selling homes, with a 3% tax rate for properties held for less than two years and exemption for those held for two years or more [1]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with three other departments, issued a plan for the digital transformation of the automotive industry, promoting the large-scale application of intelligent robots in various manufacturing processes [1]. - The Ministry of Commerce and eight other departments released the implementation details for the 2026 vehicle trade-in subsidy, offering up to 20,000 yuan for scrapping eligible old vehicles and purchasing new energy vehicles [1][2]. Industry Developments - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance announced a large-scale equipment update and trade-in policy for consumer goods, providing a 15% subsidy for energy-efficient home appliances and a maximum of 1,500 yuan per item [2]. - The Ministry of Education plans to advance artificial intelligence in education, with policies expected to be released next year to enhance AI education and applications [2]. Corporate Announcements - Aoyuan Ceiling announced a change in its actual controller to Shi Qiming, and its stock has resumed trading. Dongjie Intelligent has terminated its major asset restructuring plan, and its stock has also resumed trading [4]. - Salt Lake Co. plans to acquire a 51% stake in Minmetals Salt Lake for 4.605 billion yuan to accelerate the development of a world-class salt lake industry base. Shengxin Lithium Energy intends to acquire a 30% stake in Qicheng Mining for 2.08 billion yuan [4]. - China National Airlines plans to purchase 60 Airbus A320NEO aircraft, with a total catalog price of approximately 9.53 billion USD [6]. - Guotou Zhonglu intends to issue shares at a premium of 147.4% to acquire 100% of China Electronics Engineering Design Institute for 6.026 billion yuan [6]. Market Sentiment - Citic Securities reported an increase in expectations for the appreciation of the RMB, which is favorable for the performance of RMB-denominated equity assets. The central bank is expected to adopt more flexible policy tools, focusing on domestic demand [10].

盘前要闻 1、2026年以旧换新政策公布，涉及汽车、手机、平板、智能眼镜等 类型：宏观 情绪影响：正面 发改委、财政部联合发文，明确2026年"两新"政策的支持范围、补贴标准和工作要求。2026年国补主要 有四类，即汽车报废、汽车置换、家电和数码、智能产品。与2025年国补相比，少了家装、电动自行车 两大类。数码国补对象是手机、平板、智能手表手环、智能眼镜等4类产品，相比2025年新增了一项智 能眼镜。 2、美政府已颁发许可证，批准三星和SK海力士向中国出口芯片制造设备 类型：行业 情绪影响：正面 路透社报道称，据消息人士透露，三星和SK海力士已获美国批准，在2026年向中国出口芯片制造设 备。在今年早些时候撤销一些科技公司在美国芯片制造设备出口方面的许可豁免后，美国暂时松绑了对 韩国企业的限制。 3、四部门发文推动汽车行业数字化转型，推动智能机器人规模化应用 类型：行业 中国12月PMI数据将公布 机构观点 利好利空前瞻 情绪影响：正面 工信部等四部门联合印发《汽车行业数字化转型实施方案》。方案提出，组织行业"人工智能+"应用行 动，遴选一批人工智能创新应用标杆案例；推动智能机器人在焊接、喷涂、总装等环节规 ...

Group 1 - Mercuria has signed a purchase agreement with Bulgarian mining company Geotechman to acquire 100% of the copper concentrate output from the Ellatzite mine by 2026 [1] - The agreement includes a $250 million prepayment loan, aligning with Mercuria's strategy to expand its metal business in Europe [1] - The Ellatzite mine is expected to produce 195,000 wet tons of copper concentrate in 2026 [1] Group 2 - Mercuria's global metal head, Kostas Bintas, stated that the transaction is part of a bet on structural changes in the global energy system leading to substantial profits [1] - Geotechman's deputy manager, Ivan Vutov, mentioned that the agreement will enable Geotechman to competitively enter the international market [1] - Mercuria indicated that the global copper market is expected to tighten again next year, driving up prices for copper concentrate and refined copper [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company, China Uranium Corporation (001280.SZ), confirmed its involvement in thorium mining alongside uranium extraction, indicating a diversification in its resource utilization strategy [1] Group 1: Company Operations - The company currently engages in the comprehensive utilization of unique stone resources, which will lead to the production of chlorinated rare earths, uranium, and thorium products [1]

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance have allocated 62.5 billion yuan for the first batch of special bonds to support the consumption upgrade policy for old goods replacement in 2026 [6] - The new policy will expand support to include the installation of elevators in old residential areas, equipment updates in elderly care institutions, and facilities for fire rescue, among others, to better meet public needs [6] - The policy aims to optimize application conditions and review processes, lowering the investment threshold for equipment updates, and increasing support for small and medium-sized enterprises [6] Group 2 - The implementation regulations for the Value-Added Tax Law will take effect on January 1, 2026, detailing taxpayer and tax scope, applicable tax rates, and tax calculation methods [7] - Individuals selling residential properties purchased for less than two years will be subject to a 3% VAT, while those selling properties held for two years or more will be exempt from VAT starting January 1, 2026 [7] Group 3 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a digital transformation implementation plan for the automotive industry, aiming for significant improvements in smart manufacturing capabilities and digitalization by 2027 [8] - The plan includes enhancing labor productivity by 10% and reducing product development and delivery cycles by 20% by 2027 [8] Group 4 - Beijing's Health Commission has released measures to support the innovation and development of the artificial intelligence industry in healthcare, aiming to establish a comprehensive AI product development and application model by 2027 [9] - The goal is to create a support system for AI in healthcare that ensures precise demand matching, efficient data flow, rapid technology transfer, and collaborative ecosystem development [9]

盛新锂能：拟20.8亿元收购启成矿业30%股权，后者300万吨/年木绒锂矿正在推进开发建设 【投资经营】 【重要事项】 盐湖股份：拟46.05亿元现金收购五矿盐湖51%股权，加快推进世界级盐湖产业基地建设 中伟股份：锁定5-6亿湿吨镍矿资源的供应，掌控碳酸锂资源量超1000万吨 泰和科技：拟通过改造原磷酸铁锂生产装置生产磷酸焦磷酸铁钠，形成年产1万吨磷酸焦磷酸铁钠生产 规模 乾照光电：砷化镓太阳能电池相关产品已批量应用于国内在轨运行的大型商业航天星座组网卫星 星宸科技：车规级激光雷达SPAD芯片SS905HP与SS901适用于L3及以上场景，第一批产品将于2026年 上半年量产 【签约合作】 罗博特科：与英伟达共同开发的全球首个300mm双面晶圆测试平台已完成可靠性测试 精测电子：拟向客户出售多台半导体前道量检测设备等，合同总计金额达到5.71亿元 金盘科技：签订海外数据中心项目合同，金额约6.96亿元 九丰能源：2025年已连续九次为海南商业航天发射场长征系列火箭发射提供特燃特气保障 昊志机电：部分产品已在头部商业航天公司实现小批量应用并形成小幅盈利 *ST名家：拟与专业投资机构共同投资GPU算力芯片项目并 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite the global mining capacity entering an expansion cycle and China's port iron ore inventory reaching historical highs, iron ore futures prices remain resilient at high levels, indicating a divergence between long-term expectations and short-term realities [1] Inventory Levels - Although the total port iron ore inventory is at a historical high, the inventory structure is severely differentiated, leading to a "loose total, tight structure" scenario [2] - The differentiation in varieties exacerbates structural contradictions, with Brazilian ore inventory being high while Australian ore inventory is generally low, particularly for certain grades like PB powder, which is at a low level [2] - Steel mills are currently shifting towards purchasing lower-grade Australian ore due to profit fluctuations, which has led to a structural supply shortage and sustained increases in spot prices [2] - The low inventory levels at steel mills reinforce the demand for replenishment, providing solid short-term buying support for iron ore prices [2] Mining Profits - Iron ore, as a crucial industrial raw material, follows the logic of "demand determines direction, supply determines elasticity" [3] - China's iron ore demand remains strong, with cumulative pig iron production increasing by approximately 24.5 million tons year-on-year, leading to an estimated increase in iron ore demand of about 39.2 million tons [3] - The global iron ore supply is characterized by an oligopolistic structure, with four major mining companies controlling nearly half of the production and over 70% of the trade volume [3] - This asymmetric structure allows mining companies to maintain high profits even during industry downturns, contributing to the long-term price resilience of iron ore [3] Steel Mill Replenishment - The specific participant structure in the futures market further solidifies the strong price trend of iron ore, with foreign institutions holding significant long positions that influence market sentiment and price movements [4] - The persistent backwardation in iron ore futures creates an inherent attractiveness for long positions, providing stable support for prices [4] - Historical trends indicate that significant price declines in iron ore are typically driven by demand contractions rather than supply increases, which are often fully priced in by the market [4] Overall Market Dynamics - Supply growth is a long-term slow variable with limited short-term impact on iron ore prices; the main contradictions currently lie in demand and inventory structure [5] - In the short term, due to the current structural contradictions in inventory and the seasonal replenishment phase for steel mills, there is still potential for slight price increases [5] - However, as supply continues to increase and replenishment ends, along with the current low profitability of steel mills, iron ore may face downward pressure if production recovery in Q1 next year does not meet expectations [5] Future Focus - Two key variables to monitor are the changes in domestic steel mill production rhythms and the actual production and shipping progress of the West Mangdu project, which could be critical drivers in breaking the current price stalemate [6]

Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines strategic opportunities and challenges for China's economic and social development, emphasizing high-quality growth and a focus on various key sectors [2][3]. Economic Opportunities - The plan identifies numerous new opportunities, including the development of a modern industrial system and the strengthening of the real economy, with specific mentions of sectors such as mining, metallurgy, chemicals, and advanced technologies [3]. - The goal is to achieve significant results in high-quality development, with economic growth maintained within a reasonable range and an increase in domestic consumption driving economic growth [2][3]. Economic Challenges - Challenges include unbalanced development, insufficient effective demand, and pressures on employment and income growth, which need to be addressed to convert challenges into opportunities [4]. - The plan sets a target for per capita GDP to reach the level of moderately developed countries by 2035, requiring an average annual GDP growth of approximately 4.17% from 2025 to 2035 [4]. Consumer Income and Spending - The plan aims to increase residents' income through various channels, including wage, operational, property, and transfer income, with a focus on enhancing the share of labor remuneration in national income distribution [7][11]. - There is an emphasis on improving the structure of income distribution to promote a more reasonable allocation of income among residents [7]. Investment and Consumption - The plan suggests that increasing government spending on social welfare and implementing direct consumer support policies will enhance residents' consumption capacity [8][11]. - The importance of stabilizing the stock market to increase residents' property income and subsequently boost consumption is highlighted [14]. Capital Market Development - The stability of the capital market is crucial for enhancing investor confidence and ensuring sustainable income growth, which in turn affects consumer behavior [14][15]. - Encouraging long-term funding sources for technological innovation is essential for fostering a robust capital market and supporting economic growth [15][18]. Technological Innovation and Global Competitiveness - The plan emphasizes the need for China to cultivate high-quality listed companies with international competitiveness, particularly in the technology sector, to participate in global competition [18]. - The focus is on creating a favorable investment environment for companies to grow and attract long-term capital into the market [18].