而贵金属指数今天也出现了跌停，看起来跌势非常的猛烈，但从我自身的理解看，这种下跌能否改变需求紧张的格局吗？答案是否定的，既然改变不了基本 面，有什么可担心的，我也从来不认为美联储的换届就一定能够重塑美元信用，站在这样的立场上，面对今天市场情绪的过度紧张，我觉得这个时候反而应 该更冷静一些。 免责声明：文中内容仅供参考，不构成任何操作建议或提示，基金有风险，投资请谨慎！ 这个时候各位可以想想，记得在上周的时候，黄金期货价格到了5600美元，如果再与当下的4500美元做一个对比，相当于很短的时间，黄金价格下跌幅度超 过20%，应该说这种力度和跌幅相当之大了。 对于贵金属这波大波动幅度的原因，大家也都清楚，多少与川大提名的美联储未来新任负责人沃什有关，市场预期宽松的货币政策周期有结束的可能性，以 沃什的风格美联储未来存在缩表的可能性，很显然这是有利于恢复美元信用，会使得之前持续很长时间的全球流动性逻辑重塑，应该说这是连续两个交易日 贵金属和有色金属大跌的主要原因。 但是我以为，最近两个交易日贵金属以及金属价格的大跌，本质上还是与此前大幅度上涨有关，累计获利盘与市场利空刚好形成了一致，才出现了做空动能 超额释放现象。 ...

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market indices experienced a collective decline, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 2.23% to 26,775.57 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index dropping by 3.36% to 5,526.31 points, and the China Enterprises Index decreasing by 2.54% to 9,080.19 points [2]. Sector Analysis - The recent market adjustment is attributed to a technical pullback following a rapid rise in indices, compounded by hawkish comments from Fed Chair nominee Waller, which stirred market sentiment. This is not seen as a trend reversal signal [5]. - Key focus remains on the sustainability of volatility, with three main supportive drivers for the first quarter identified: improved liquidity environment, resonance of domestic and foreign capital, and upward revisions in corporate earnings expectations due to economic recovery [6][7]. Investment Strategy - Analysts suggest adopting a mid-term perspective, emphasizing opportunities in small and mid-cap sectors with clear catalysts, such as education, AI applications, and specialty consumption [8]. Sector-Specific Movements - Gold and related stocks saw significant declines, with Shandong Gold dropping by 12.56% and Chifeng Jilong Gold falling by 12.18%, influenced by a broader downturn in commodity prices [10][12]. - The cement and building materials sector also faced losses, with Western Cement declining by 15.47% and China National Building Material falling by 10.14%. The latter is projected to report a loss of approximately RMB 2.3 billion to RMB 4 billion for the year ending December 31, 2025 [13]. - Semiconductor stocks were affected by industry demand fluctuations, with Huahong Semiconductor down by 11.24% and Zhaoyi Innovation down by 9.25%. Reports indicate tightening order reviews by major manufacturers in response to market volatility [15]. Resilient Sectors - Some gaming stocks performed well, with Yabo Technology Holdings increasing by 8.79% and Sands China rising by 4.05%. Yabo announced a technical service agreement with the Hong Kong Gold Exchange [17]. - The liquor sector also showed resilience, with Yiyuan Liquor rising by 8.33% and Qingdao Beer increasing by 1.46%. Analysts expect the liquor industry to hit bottom by 2026, with a potential investment opportunity arising around the Chinese New Year [19]. Notable Stock Movements - Cloud Wisdom saw a rise of 5.49%, with expectations of significant revenue growth from its large model-related business, projected to reach approximately RMB 600 million to RMB 620 million in 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of about 1057% to 1095% [20]. - Kangzheng Pharmaceutical increased by 7.77% following the approval of clinical trials for its complement factor B inhibitor, indicating potential for new product launches [21].

与此同时，该基金最新成交量为8.52亿份，最新成交额达15.36亿元，居可比基金第一。 工业有色ETF万家（560860.SH），场外联接(A类：018489；C类：018490）。 2026年2月2日，工业有色ETF万家（560860.SH）收跌9.98%，主力资金（单笔成交额100万元以上）净 流入1.99亿元，居可比基金第一。（数据来源：Wind） 拉长时间看，该基金近5个交易日有4天主力资金净流入，合计流入1.36亿元，居可比基金第一。（数据 来源：Wind） ...

伦敦金属交易所（LME）公布数据显示，上周伦铜库存整体继续回升，1月29日库存增至逾八个月新高176,075吨，而后库存小幅回落，最新库存水平为 174,975吨。 刘明康 上周，纽铜库存继续累积，最新库存水平为577,724吨，再创阶段性新高。 156 5309 0867 注：一般来说，国内外交易所库存不断下降将对期价形成支撑，反之，则对期价有所利空。 作为全球最大的铜消费国，中国产业链面临三大挑战：上游资源对外依存度攀升、中游加工环节产能过剩、下游需求受高铜价抑制。为助力行业应对变局， 上海有色网携手铜产业链企业联合编制《2026中国铜产业链分布图》中英双语版，点击此链接即可免费领取铜产业链分布图： https://s.wcd.im/v/470opZ19l/。 SMM联合制作联系人 上海期货交易所最新公布数据显示，1月30日当周，沪铜库存继续累积，周度库存增加3.13%至233,004吨，增至近十个月新高。国际铜库存减少101吨至 15,794吨。 2023年以来三大交易所铜库存对比 以下为2026年1月以来三大交易所铜库存数据：（单位：吨） | 日期 | COMEX | LME | SHFE | | - ...

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that the precious metals market is experiencing a significant correction, but this is not seen as the end of the bull market. It suggests looking for low-position chips in gold between 4800-4900 USD per ounce [4] - Copper prices have shown considerable volatility, reaching historical highs above 14,000 USD before a sharp correction. The report anticipates a tight supply-demand situation for copper in 2026 due to production forecast downgrades by major companies [5] - The aluminum market is facing weak demand due to high prices, with expectations of a decline in operating rates. The report suggests that buying on dips remains a viable strategy [6] - Tantalum prices are expected to rise due to supply shocks from mining accidents in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which account for over 15% of global tantalum supply [6] - Tin prices have significantly dropped, influenced by macroeconomic events and supply uncertainties from conflict-affected regions. The report recommends buying on dips within a price range of 300,000 to 350,000 CNY [8] Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown a weekly increase of 2.6%, ranking fifth among industry sectors [18] Section 2: Prices - LME copper decreased by 0.85%, aluminum by 1.88%, while zinc increased by 0.57%. Precious metals saw COMEX gold drop by 1.94% and silver by 17.94% [19][20] Section 3: Inventory - Global visible copper inventories increased by 28,066 tons, while aluminum saw a decrease of 6,204 tons. Other metals like zinc and lead also experienced inventory changes [32][34]

Core Viewpoint - The overall market sentiment indicators are stable, with rapid fund switching observed, indicating a bullish sentiment in the market [4][5]. Group 1: Market Sentiment Indicators - The market sentiment structure indicators include various metrics such as industry trading volatility, trading congestion, price-volume consistency, and others, which collectively inform the sentiment direction [2][3]. - As of January 30, the market sentiment indicator value is 2.6, a slight increase from 2.35 the previous week, suggesting a stable sentiment with a bullish bias [4]. - The sentiment structure indicator has fluctuated around the zero axis within the range of [-6, 6] over the past five years, with significant volatility observed in 2023 [3]. Group 2: Sub-indicator Analysis - The industry trading volatility has shown a slight recovery, indicating increased frequency of fund switching between different sectors, while the industry trend indicator has rapidly declined, suggesting growing divergence in short-term industry outlooks [5][18]. - The price-volume consistency indicator remains high, reflecting a strong correlation between market attention and stock price movements, indicating active market sentiment [7]. - The financing balance ratio has slightly increased, indicating that leveraged funds are maintaining a high level of sentiment, with overall investor risk appetite remaining positive [19]. Group 3: Sector Performance and Trends - The short-term score for the food and beverage sector has risen significantly, while growth and small-cap styles are currently favored [26]. - The highest short-term scores are observed in the oil and petrochemical, construction materials, and non-ferrous metals sectors, indicating strong performance in these areas [26][27]. - The average congestion levels are highest in sectors like non-ferrous metals and oil and petrochemicals, while the lowest are in transportation and real estate, suggesting varying levels of market focus and potential risks [32][34].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market experienced a widespread decline on February 2, with over 10 futures contracts hitting or approaching the daily limit down, including gold, silver, platinum, palladium, copper, aluminum, nickel, crude oil, and lithium carbonate [1][2] - Precious metals saw significant drops, with silver futures down 17%, platinum and palladium down 16%, and gold futures also hitting the limit down with a 16% decline [1][2] - Industrial metals faced similar declines, with tin futures hitting the limit down at 11%, while copper and aluminum futures dropped by 9%, and lithium carbonate futures fell by 14% [2][3] Group 2 - In the energy sector, crude oil futures hit the limit down with a 7% decline, while other energy products like fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil also saw declines exceeding 5% [3][4] - The A-share market showed a downward trend, with all three major indices falling over 2%, and a total trading volume of 2.58 trillion yuan, down 250.8 billion yuan from the previous trading day [5][6] - The non-ferrous metals sector was notably impacted, with multiple stocks such as Sichuan Gold and Chifeng Jilong Gold hitting the limit down, reflecting the broader market's struggles [5]

Market Overview - The A-share market opened with mixed performance among the three major indices, followed by a downward trend with all indices falling over 1% [1] - As of the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 1.32%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.41%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.18% [1][2] - The total trading volume for the half-day reached 1.66 trillion yuan, with nearly 3,500 stocks declining [1] Index Performance - Shanghai Composite Index: 4063.54, down 54.41 points (-1.32%) [2] - Shenzhen Component Index: 14006.25, down 199.65 points (-1.41%) [2] - ChiNext Index: 3306.94, down 39.41 points (-1.18%) [2] - CSI 300 Index: 4656.16, down 50.18 points (-1.07%) [2] - CSI 500 Index: 8179.80, down 190.72 points (-2.28%) [2] - CSI 1000 Index: 8105.79, down 149.07 points (-1.81%) [2] Sector Performance - The liquor sector showed strong performance with multiple stocks rising significantly [3] - The commercial aerospace sector was also active, with several stocks experiencing substantial gains [3] - Other sectors that performed well included optical communication, CPO concepts, and superhard materials [3] - Conversely, the three major telecom operators collectively weakened, and the chip industry chain continued to decline, particularly in the storage sector [3] - Other sectors with notable declines included non-ferrous metals, oil and gas, agriculture, and semiconductors [3]

Core Viewpoint - In January, the global asset allocation logic shifted from valuation recovery to profit-driven, with A-shares continuing an upward trend supported by policies, funding, and valuation [1][2]. Group 1: A-share Market Performance - The A-share market showed a steady upward trend in January, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 3.76%, the ChiNext Index by 4.47%, and the Shenzhen Index by 5.03% by the end of January [2]. - The non-ferrous metals sector led the gains with a 22.59% increase, followed by media, oil and petrochemicals, construction materials, and basic chemicals with respective increases of 17.94%, 16.31%, 13.31%, and 12.72% [2]. Group 2: Fund Performance - Public FOFs (funds of funds) performed well, with some products achieving monthly returns exceeding 30%. For instance, the Guotai Industry Rotation A fund had a monthly return of 30.31%, while the Guotai Preferred Navigation fund reached 37.12% [3][5]. - A total of 35 FOFs had monthly performance exceeding 10%, with 4 funds surpassing 20% [3]. Group 3: Market Trends and Predictions - Analysts noted that the core drivers of asset performance in January were cross-year capital reallocation and sentiment recovery, with expectations of a "spring excitement" in the stock market in the first quarter [3][7]. - The transition from valuation-driven to profit-driven narratives in global asset allocation is expected to continue, with a focus on sectors showing clear performance improvements, particularly in technology and cyclical industries [7]. Group 4: Fund Issuance and Research Activity - The issuance of public funds accelerated in January, with a significant number of FOFs focusing on themes like technological innovation and high-end manufacturing, reflecting market interest in economic transformation opportunities [6][7]. - A total of 156 public fund institutions participated in A-share research activities in January, covering 486 stocks across 30 first-level industries, indicating high research engagement [7].

格隆汇2月2日丨创新新材(600361.SH)公布，截至2026年1月31日，公司已累计回购股份15,429,150股， 占公司最新总股本的比例为0.4108%,回购成交的最高价为4.32元/股、最低价为3.93元/股，成交总金额为 人民币64,448,632元（不含印花税、交易佣金等交易费用）。 ...