凤阳花鼓非遗传承人孙凤城、高静与滁州学院花鼓艺术团的学生同台演出。 图片由滁州学院提供 编者按 国家越来越重视中华优秀传统文化的继承与弘扬，高度重视非物质文化遗产的保护与传承工作。然而，非 遗项目普遍面临传承碎片化、展示场景有限、年轻人参与度低等难题。同时，专业化、高素质的非遗保护 人才的需求缺口正在不断扩大。近年来，围绕地方优势非遗项目，不少地方本科高校开设相关专业。记者 在安徽调研时发现，不少高校用"对口高考"招收大批中职学生，让中职生闯入了本科高校非遗"赛道"，成了 非遗传承的一支生力军。 宿州学院表演专业（泗州戏方向）的学生在进行演出前的化妆。 图片由宿州学院提供 让记者感到意外的是，张文并非出自梨园世家，也不是科班出身，他在上中职时与戏曲结缘，后来走上专 业道路，考上了本科高校。其实，他的经历并非个案，随着国家对非遗保护传承的日益重视，不少地方应 用型本科高校开设戏曲、传统工艺美术等专业（方向），随着"对口高考"招生规模不断扩大，开始招收大 批中职毕业生。 对此，记者深度调研发现，有很多专业，目前中职学校基本已经"贯通"高职院校，而"对口高考"的实施，使 得中职学校开始接通本科院校非遗"赛道"，越来 ...

Group 1 - The overall situation between China and the US is expected to converge, with limited adverse effects on the market [3][15]. - China has taken proactive measures indicating a shift in power dynamics, enhancing national governance capabilities and boosting investor confidence in A-shares [4][16]. - The A-share market is predicted to experience short-term weakness but long-term strength, maintaining a sideways trend with limited downside in the short term [5][17]. Group 2 - Investment opportunities remain concentrated in the technology sector, particularly in computer/media and electronics/communication, with a focus on industrial software, foundational software, and AI applications [6][18]. - Strategic metals are favored, with gold expected to outperform rare earths and copper, driven by factors such as currency credit deterioration and demand from global infrastructure upgrades [7][19]. - The impact of tariff conflicts is deemed limited, as companies have already prepared for such risks [8][20].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The new round of Sino - US tariff game has suddenly escalated. Trump's actions have political motives and negotiation considerations, aiming to force China to make concessions and reshape the negotiation framework with higher tariffs. The persistence of this round of friction may be stronger than that in April [7]. - In the market, there are certain risk - aversion features in the capital market after the holiday, but long - term funds may still be providing support. The market has not entered a systematic de - leveraging stage. The mid - term investment mainlines are clear, including technology and semiconductor industries, resource assets such as rare earth and gold, and large financial sectors like banks and securities [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Review - **Market Performance** - Most major market indices rose last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index having the largest increase of 0.37%. Among major industries, the utility index and energy index performed relatively well, with weekly increases of 3.69% and 3.13% respectively, while the telecommunications service index and information technology index performed weakly, with decreases of 2.79% and 2.22% respectively [9][13]. - Among 30 Shenwan primary industries, 17 rose. The industries with larger increases were non - ferrous metals, coal, and steel, rising 4.44%, 4.41%, and 4.18% respectively. The industries with larger decreases were media, electronics, and power equipment, falling 3.83%, 2.63%, and 2.52% respectively [9][16]. - **Trading Volume** - The average daily trading volume of the Wind All - A Index last week was 26029.82 billion yuan (the previous value was 21876.96 billion yuan), at an extremely high historical level (98.00% of the three - year historical quantile) [9][19]. - **Valuation Tracking** - As of October 10, 2025, the valuation (PE_TTM) of the Wind All - A Index was 22.47, an increase of 0.13 from the previous week, at the 92.50% quantile of the past five - year history. Among 30 Shenwan primary industries, 17 saw a recovery in valuation (PE_TTM) [9][23]. Market Observation - **Analysis of the Sino - US Tariff Game** - Trump's actions in threatening to impose "significantly increased tariffs" on Chinese goods have both political motives and negotiation considerations. He hopes to force China to make concessions and reshape the negotiation framework. The persistence of this round of friction may be stronger than that in April due to China's stance, Trump's lower political pressure, and the uncertainty of the APEC summit [7]. - In the market, there are risk - aversion features, but long - term funds may still be providing support, and the market has not entered a systematic de - leveraging stage. The mid - term mainlines are technology and semiconductor industries, resource assets such as rare earth and gold, and large financial sectors [8]. - **Investment Recommendations** - Due to the sudden and persistent nature of this round of Sino - US friction, investors should not simply copy the "quick bottom - fishing" strategy in April. The adjustment space of the index is expected to be controllable. The mid - term mainlines are technology and semiconductor industries, resource assets such as rare earth and gold, large financial sectors, and the Hong Kong stock market may have phased allocation opportunities in high - dividend and new - consumption sectors [8]. Economic Calendar - This week, important domestic economic data to be released include China's export and import annual rates in US dollars, trade balance, new RMB loans, social financing scale, M2 money supply year - on - year, CPI, and PPI. Overseas, important data include the US unadjusted CPI year - on - year, PPI year - on - year, retail sales year - on - year, and core retail sales month - on - month. There are also important events such as speeches by the Fed Chairman and the Fed's financial regulatory vice - chairman [25].

每周 一 景：湖南衡阳衡山 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 为什么特朗普政府的关税态度会出现如此快速的软化？美国为什么很难长期坚持对其他经济体的高关税政策？归根到底，是因为美国很难长时间逆着经济规律 做事情。 所以虽然关税政策短期有很大的不确定性，但是中长期来看，沿着经济规律演绎又是相对确定的。 本次关税再起波澜，我们认为政策的纠偏其实只是时间问题，对市场的影响预计会相对可控。 从宏观视角看，本次关税冲击和4月那次相比，我们认为也需要 考虑其他几方面因素：首先，市场是有"经验"和"记忆"的。其次，中国的应对经验更丰富。此外，当前的宏观信心和预期会更强一些。 所以总结来说，我们认为，外部因素的短期波动对国内的边际影响其实没有那么大，而真正需要关注的是国内经济、政策等因素的变化。只要我们继续坚持做 正确的事，就没什么好怕的。 风险提示： 全球地缘风险；美国政策的不确定风险；监管政策变化风险。 【宏观】胜人者有力，自胜者强 近期美国特朗普政府又开始酝酿对一些国家挑起关税摩擦，也引起市场诸多的关注。 我们认为对于外部环境变化不需要太悲观。就像我们在去年年度展望报 告当中提到的，"胜人者有力，自胜者强"，战胜别人看起来是有 ...

国泰海通证券报告认为，与4月冲击不同，当下贸易风险的边界相对清晰，国内金融稳定条件也更明 朗，因此外部冲击是扰动，不会终结趋势。投资更应看到中国"转型牛"内在确定性的趋势：中国转型加 快、无风险收益下沉与资本市场改革。当下中国社会和投资人关于"找资产"的需求持续井喷，尤其是发 展逻辑坚实的优质资产，因此，外部局势的冲突和扰动所造成的资产下跌反而是买点。地缘冲击和调整 难免，但时间不会久，幅度可控，是增持中国的时机。国泰海通认为风格不会切换，聚焦产业发展、反 内卷和稳定价值。1）中国AI创新与国产化进展提速，新一轮资本开支扩张周期出现；国产半导体设 备"deepseek时刻"或临近，推荐：港股互联网/电子半导体/国防军工/传媒/机器人等。2）金融板块在经 历调整后，股息回报和稳定价值提高，推荐：券商/银行/保险。3）反内卷的背后是经济治理思路的转 变，有助打破或修正此前充分定价的通缩预期，看好格局改善的周期品：有色（稀土）/化工/钢铁/新能 源等。 ...

Core Insights - The recent escalation of the US-China supply chain and tariff conflict is a continuation of trade frictions since 2018, and it is not a new negative factor for the A-share market. Historical experience shows that such shocks often create phase low points and investment opportunities [2][6][10] - Compared to the tariff shock in April this year, the current market has more favorable conditions, including investor expectations of tariff threats and stronger market resilience due to key resistance levels being surpassed [4][10] - Short-term adjustments are inevitable, but the market still shows resilience, with the potential for new highs after the shock ends. This adjustment may serve as an opportunity to optimize the investment structure [2][10] Industry and Company Analysis - The classic response strategy to the US-China conflict emphasizes self-sufficiency and domestic circulation, suggesting a focus on sectors with relatively low positions and marginal improvements, such as military industry, semiconductors, software self-sufficiency, new consumption, and non-ferrous metals [2][10] - The current market sentiment is bolstered by a stronger willingness of residents to invest, increased protective actions from important institutional investors, and accelerated trends in new industries like artificial intelligence and semiconductors, which provide long-term value during corrections [4][10] - The average guarantee ratio in the market has significantly improved from 261% in April to 287%, enhancing the market's ability to withstand downturns despite a larger scale of financing [4][9][10] - The recent market dynamics indicate that sectors such as gold, copper, cobalt, photovoltaic batteries, lithium battery equipment, wind power, semiconductors, and automotive are experiencing improvements or high levels of prosperity [4][10]

Core Viewpoint - The main factors influencing the A-share market in October are policies and external events, liquidity, and fundamentals, with historical data indicating a tendency for the market to be volatile during this month [1][2]. Group 1: Historical Performance - Since 2010, the Shanghai Composite Index has shown an upward trend in October during years when the "Five-Year Plan" was implemented, such as in 2010, 2015, and 2020 [2][3]. - Out of the last 15 years, the index has risen in 8 instances during October [2]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Policies and external events are the core influencing factors; positive developments may lead to market gains, while tightening policies or negative external shocks could weaken the market [2][3]. - Liquidity conditions are also crucial; a loose liquidity environment can boost the market, as seen in 2010 with the anticipation of QE2, in 2015 with interest rate cuts, and in 2019 with Fed rate cuts [2][3]. - The performance of the third-quarter reports is expected to significantly impact the market in October, with potential structural recovery in earnings [2][3]. Group 3: October Outlook - The A-share market is likely to continue a slow bullish trend in October, supported by positive policy expectations and a potentially loose liquidity environment [3]. - The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session may enhance positive policy expectations, while geopolitical tensions could remain a concern, particularly regarding U.S.-China trade relations [3]. - Economic conditions are expected to show weak recovery, with third-quarter earnings reports indicating a structural rebound in sectors like technology and cyclical industries [3]. Group 4: Sector Allocation - The technology and growth sectors are expected to outperform in October, particularly those related to the "14th Five-Year Plan," which emphasizes technological innovation and domestic demand [4]. - Historical data suggests that industries with strong earnings reports during the third-quarter disclosure period tend to perform well, with high growth expected in technology and cyclical sectors [4]. - The current Fed rate cut cycle may favor technology and certain cyclical industries, with a higher likelihood of leading performance from sectors like computing, automotive, and electronics [4]. - Recommendations include accumulating positions in sectors benefiting from policy support and improving fundamentals, such as communication, machinery, electronics, and renewable energy [4].

Core Viewpoint - The main factors influencing the A-share market in October are policies and external events, liquidity, and fundamentals, with historical data indicating a tendency for the market to be volatile during this month [2][3]. Policy and External Events - Positive policies and external events are crucial for potential A-share market gains, as seen in years like 2010, 2015, and 2020 when the Shanghai Composite Index rose in October following the implementation of the "Five-Year Plans" [2][3]. - Conversely, tightening policies or negative external shocks could lead to a weaker A-share market [2]. Liquidity - Liquidity is a significant factor affecting the A-share market in October; a loose liquidity environment may boost the market, as evidenced by events like the anticipated QE2 in 2010 and interest rate cuts by the central bank in 2015 [2][3]. - A tightening liquidity scenario could result in weaker market performance [2]. Earnings Reports - The third-quarter earnings reports are expected to have a substantial impact on the A-share market in October, with a potential structural recovery in profitability anticipated [3][5]. Current Market Outlook - The A-share market is likely to continue a slow bullish trend in October, supported by positive policy expectations and a potentially loose liquidity environment [3]. - Historical trends suggest that sectors related to technology and cyclical industries may outperform in October, particularly those aligned with the "14th Five-Year Plan" [4][5]. Sector Allocation - The technology and cyclical sectors are expected to remain favored in October, with recommendations to accumulate positions in technology, core assets, and cyclical industries [4][5]. - Specific industries such as computing, media, military, and new energy are projected to show strong earnings growth, while sectors with high economic activity are likely to be concentrated in technology and cyclical industries [5].

Core Viewpoint - Despite increased market volatility, several subjective private equity institutions, including Freshwater Spring, remain optimistic about structural opportunities in the market [1] Market Dynamics - The recent market fluctuations are viewed as a healthy correction following rapid price increases in certain assets [3] - Current A-share market liquidity is primarily driven by institutional investors, with individual investors' demand for stock assets still accumulating but not fully released [3] - There has been a notable increase in interest from long-term active funds in Europe and the U.S. towards Chinese assets, although significant inflows have yet to materialize [3] - The liquidity environment is expected to remain abundant in the short term, providing a foundation for stable market operations [3] Seasonal Trends - The fourth quarter typically exhibits a defensive market trend, with undervalued sectors likely to outperform [4] - The market faces a reporting gap after the third-quarter results, making low-valuation and stable-earning sectors more attractive to investors [4] - The fourth quarter is also characterized by numerous economic work meetings, influencing market expectations for the upcoming year [4] Investment Strategies - Private equity firms are focusing on increasing allocations to high-growth and cyclical assets [5][6] - Freshwater Spring has adjusted its portfolio to include high-certainty growth companies in the electronics sector and strong fundamental pharmaceutical firms, while also maintaining positions in cyclical assets [6] - Qinghe Spring has shifted its focus towards upstream resource industries, citing the sustainability of weak dollar and supply constraints as key factors [7] - The firm is also exploring investment opportunities in cyclical companies currently at low price levels, anticipating potential profit increases as demand improves [7] Structural Opportunities - The market is expected to continue evolving in a "slow bull" manner, with ongoing structural opportunities [8] - Investment frameworks are centered around "technology + consumption," with a focus on industry and policy factors [8] - The emphasis is on technological breakthroughs and policy expectations related to the "14th Five-Year Plan," aiming to identify potential investment opportunities in resonant sectors [8]

1、国新办举行"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列主题新闻发布会， 住建部相关负责人介绍，目前全国房地产白名单项目贷款的审批金额已超7万亿 元。 存量住房市场规模持续扩大， 全国已有15个省区市二手住宅的交易量超过新房； 将会同有关部门研究制定若干个落实中央城市工作会议精神 的配套文件，且正在研究让老房子通过改造成为"好房子"。 2、北京时间10月11日凌晨， 加密货币市场突发 "黑天鹅"，单日全网合约爆仓金额突破190亿美元，涉及爆仓人数高达164万，创下币圈历史最高单日清算 纪录，且九成为多单爆仓。 当日比特币从12.2万美元高位最低下探至10.15万美元，24小时跌幅超17%；以太坊价格一度跌至3400美元，24小时跌幅超 20%、狗狗币、SUI 等小市值币种跌幅更为惨烈，持仓量腰斩。 1、 国务院副总理张国清在浙江调研专精特新企业发展、安全生产等工作。 他强调，要大力促进专精特新企业发展壮大，持续提升化工企业本质安全水 平。支持专精特新企业始终坚持技术创新，推进强链补链固链，加快数字化智能化转型。 2、 商务部国际贸易谈判代表兼副部长李成钢出席二十国集团贸易投资部长会议。 李成钢指出，各方应支持多边贸易体 ...