软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2026 年 2 月 4 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周二，ICE 美棉下跌 0.59%，报收 62.3 美分/磅，郑棉主力合约环比上涨 0.07%，报 | 震荡 | | | 收 14650 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 16256 手至 71.79 万手，棉花 3128B 现货 | | | | 价格指数 15650 元/吨，较前一日上涨 80 元/吨。国际市场方面，海外宏观仍有阶 | | | | 段性扰动，贵金属风险集中释放，美元指数 97-98 区间震荡，美棉期价短期难寻 | | | | 上行驱动。国内市场方面，昨日郑棉期价振幅较大，尾盘基本收平。我们认为，节 | | | | 前郑棉上行驱动有限，短期商品市场波动较大，随着春节临近，持仓或有小幅下 | | | | 降。基本面角度来看，当前棉花库存高位、进口增量，总供应充裕。节前下游纺织 | | | | 企业虽有补库动作，但目前纺企棉花库存可用天数已经创下近五年来同期新高，再 | | | | 度大幅补库动力有限，纺织企业也将陆续开始放假，郑棉上行驱 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term decline. Brazil is in the early stage of soybean harvest, with expected record - high production. US soybeans fell due to export decline expectations, and domestic soybean meal continued to decline with inventory accumulation. However, the spot price rose slightly, and the basis strengthened. Be cautious about further shorting, and pay attention to February rainfall in Argentine soybean regions [1][4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term adjustment. The entry of the first batch of Australian rapeseeds into crushing and stable Sino - Canadian trade reduced market bullish sentiment. Coastal oil mill rapeseed meal inventory broke the previous zero state, and the decline in soybean meal further expanded the decline of rapeseed meal. It shows a second - dip trend in the short term. Focus on subsequent rapeseed procurement and US - Canada trade progress [1][7]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term adjustment. Indonesia's plan to ban the export of used cooking oil and palm waste supported palm oil prices, but the January Malaysian palm oil export data was average, with a risk of inventory accumulation in January. Be cautious about going long, and pay attention to January Malaysian palm oil inventory estimates and the US - Iran situation [1][9]. - **Soybean Oil**: Short - term adjustment. Brazil's soybean harvest is in the early stage, with expected production increase, which is bearish for the market. Coupled with the weakening of crude oil, soybean oil continued to decline slightly. Pay attention to the Malaysian palm oil situation and Argentine weather [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Short - term adjustment. The crushing of Australian rapeseeds in China alleviated the tight supply in South China, but downstream demand has not improved significantly, and the basis has weakened. The Sino - Canadian rapeseed trade policy is unclear. Rapeseed oil futures prices rebounded slightly following palm oil. Focus on rapeseed imports and US - Canada trade progress [1]. - **Cotton**: Oscillatory adjustment. The US cotton market declined due to external commodities and a stronger US dollar. It has been in low - level consolidation since 2025, and the new - cotton narrative in 2026 is expected to start after the first quarter. In China, new - cotton processing is basically completed, and raw - material inventory is being depleted at a moderate pace. The import side faces price - difference pressure, and domestic demand is in a weakening stage. In the short term, the upward drive is weak, but there is a strong expectation in the medium - long term. Continuously monitor the linkage between domestic and foreign cotton and the inventory depletion situation in the first half of the year [1][13]. - **Red Dates**: Under pressure. Spot performance is flat. With the peak of new - product listing and the arrival of the consumption peak season, futures price fluctuations increase. High inventory depletion is accelerating, which may drive a short - term rebound. However, in a supply - demand loose pattern, the overall trend is expected to be bearish with occasional rebounds. Pay attention to short - term rebound opportunities during the cold - season peak [1][16]. - **Hogs**: Oscillatory and weakening. In the context of high supply and demand in February, there may be short - term price rebounds in some regions, but they lack a sustainable basis. Near - month contracts are prone to decline due to weak supply - demand and delivery logic, so pay attention to low - level risk control. Far - month contracts lack a basis for upward trend due to poor capacity reduction. Focus on short - term long - allocation and rebound opportunities [1][18]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Market Situation**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2727 yuan/ton, down 0.84% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3168.57 yuan/ton, down 0.42%. The soybean crushing profit decreased, and the basis strengthened. The export decline expectation led to a fall in US soybeans, and domestic inventory accumulation pressured the market [2][4]. - **Brazilian Situation**: As of last Thursday, Brazilian farmers had completed 10% of the 2025/26 soybean harvest area, 5 percentage points higher than the previous week and higher than last year's 9%. Multiple institutions predict record - high Brazilian soybean production in 2025/26 [3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Situation**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2249 yuan/ton, down 1.19% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2562.63 yuan/ton, down 0.73%. Coastal oil mill rapeseed meal inventory increased, and the market sentiment was bearish [5][7]. - **Supply Situation**: China has completed the customs clearance of at least one ship of Australian rapeseeds and is expected to start crushing this week. Chinese crushers have also ordered Canadian rapeseeds and rapeseed meal for shipment in the coming months [7]. Palm Oil - **Market Situation**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 9094 yuan/ton, up 0.89% from the previous day. The national average price was 9100 yuan/ton, up 0.89%. The trading volume decreased, and the import cost increased. The inventory decreased slightly, and the proportion of bullish views increased [8]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Indonesia's export ban plan supported prices, but the January Malaysian palm oil export data was average, with a risk of inventory accumulation. India's palm oil imports reached a four - month high in January [9]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: Domestic cotton futures prices generally rose slightly, and US cotton prices declined slightly. The spot price decreased slightly, and the basis of some contracts weakened. The textile enterprise's profit decreased, and the demand of spinning and weaving enterprises declined [10]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Internationally, Brazil and Turkey are expected to reduce cotton production in 2026. In China, new - cotton processing is basically completed, inventory is being depleted, and import volume increased in December. However, domestic demand is in a weakening stage [11][12][13]. Red Dates - **Market Situation**: Futures prices rose slightly, and most spot prices remained stable. The basis of some contracts weakened, and the arrival volume in the Guangdong market decreased. The inventory of 36 sample enterprises decreased [14]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply of the spot market is stable, and the inventory depletion has accelerated. With the arrival of the peak consumption season, the futures price fluctuations increase [15][16]. Hogs - **Market Situation**: Futures prices generally declined, and the national average slaughter price decreased. The inventory of sample enterprises decreased slightly, and the slaughter volume increased. The slaughter profit improved, and the frozen - product storage rate decreased [17]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In January, the breeding side slightly exceeded the plan, and the supply in the south is relatively sufficient. In February, the planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises decreased, but the daily - average pressure increased. The demand increased during the pre - holiday period, and the overall profit remained above 0 yuan/head [18].

2月3日，2026年中央一号文件发布。其明确提出，"加强农产品期货市场建设"。这一表述虽然简短，但 释放出重要信号——期货市场在服务"三农"大局中的战略地位得到进一步确认。 与此同时，期货市场助力乡村全面振兴也有了清晰的航线。 文件提出，"创新乡村振兴投融资机制""健全财政金融协同支农投入机制"。这为期货市场发挥更广泛作 用创造了条件。期货标准仓单作为优质动产，可用于质押融资，盘活涉农企业库存资产。"期货+订单 农业"模式将期货价格引入农产品远期交易，帮助农民提前锁定收益，同时为企业提供稳定的原料供 应。该模式在黑龙江、新疆等地的大豆和棉花领域已有成功实践，有效连接小农户与大市场，促进了农 业经营体系的现代化转型。未来，随着期货市场品种体系的不断完善，将有更多特色农产品获得金融赋 能，县域特色产业也将随之发展壮大。 文件提出，"培育具有国际竞争力的农业企业""积极参与国际粮农治理"。这离不开具有国际影响力的农 产品定价中心建设。我国作为全球最大的农产品消费国和重要生产国，推动农产品期货市场国际化，吸 引更多国际参与者，有助于形成反映中国市场供需状况的价格体系，提升我国在国际农产品贸易中的话 语权，为国内农业企 ...

品种观点参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026 年 2 月 4 日） 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：美豆虽然收复部分跌幅，但全球充足供应施压市场。南美巴西大豆收割率提升，创纪录丰产预 期强化；中国后续或转向巴西采购，美国大豆出口检验量年度累计降 35.7%，对中国出口周环比下降 18%。 国内市场，节前备货尾声下游需求下滑。短期豆类市场受南美丰产与国内需求转弱主导，豆粕价格维持震 荡偏弱格局。近月明显承压，远月需关注供需边际变化影响。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) ...

2026年02月04日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：宏观情绪回暖，油脂高位震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美国生柴政策逐步落地，提振油脂情绪 | 2 | | 豆粕：生柴政策影响、美豆小涨，或反弹震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：1号文件出台，盘面情绪稳定 | 4 | | 玉米：回调幅度有限 | 6 | | 白糖：区间整理 | 7 | | 棉花：预计保持震荡走势20260204 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：现货转弱 | 10 | | 生猪：旺季不旺，现货压力扩大 | 11 | | 花生：震荡偏弱 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 02 月 04 日 棕榈油：宏观情绪回暖，油脂高位震荡 豆油：美国生柴政策逐步落地，提振油脂情绪 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 9,094 | 涨跌幅 0.89% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 9,152 | 涨跌幅 0.64% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 2 月 4 日星期周三 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2 | 月 3 日，贵金属企稳，大宗商品整体获得支撑，植物油板块止跌回稳定，棕榈油 和菜籽油抗跌，豆油跌幅收窄。 | | | | | 豆油主力合约 Y2605 合约报收于 8086 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 0.07%，日减仓 | | | | | 31478 手； | | | | | 豆油次主力合约 Y2609 合约报收于 8030 元/吨，按收盘价日环比上涨 0.02%，日增 | | | | | 仓 4275 手; | | | | | 棕榈油主力合约 P2605 合约收盘价 9094 元/吨，按收盘价日环比上涨 0.89%，日减 | | | | | 仓 35 手； | | | | | 棕榈油次主力合约 P2609 报收于 9040 元/吨，按收盘价日环比上涨 0.92%，日减仓 | | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Beans 1**: ☆☆☆ [1] - **Soybean Meal**: ★★★ [1] - **Soybean Oil**: ★★★ [1] - **Palm Oil**: ★★★ [1] - **Rapeseed Meal**: ★★★ [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: ☆☆☆ [1] - **Corn**: ☆☆☆ [1] - **Live Pigs**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Eggs**: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The market is affected by concentrated geopolitical and macro - risk events with unclear directions, and the macro - situation's influence on overall commodities needs attention [2][4] - Different agricultural products have different market trends and influencing factors, and short - term trends are mainly in a state of shock, with some products having potential downward pressure [2][3][4][6][7][8][9] Summary by Category Beans 1 - Policy - end soybean auctions increase marginal supply, with all 60,608 tons of planned auctions sold at an average price of 4,298 yuan/ton, a premium of 210 - 310 yuan/ton [2] - Affected by macro factors, volatility increases, and short - term attention should be paid to policies and market sentiment [2] Soybeans & Soybean Meal - US soybeans rose and then fell, and the main contract of Dalian soybean meal M2605 fell 1.05% [3] - In late January, the domestic soybean crushing volume reached 2.3 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory rose to about 900,000 tons. In February, the crushing volume is expected to drop to 5.2 million tons, and the inventory may drop to about 650,000 tons [3] - Attention should be paid to the Brazilian soybean harvest, and short - term US soybeans and Dalian soybean meal may continue to be in a weak bottom - shock pattern [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Affected by geopolitical and macro - risk events and the approaching Spring Festival, they are expected to be in a shock pattern in the short term, and attention should be paid to the overall commodity atmosphere [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed oil is strong and the meal is weak. The Australian seed crushing and rapeseed imports are the focus. The first - quarter Australian seed arrival and crushing will ease the supply tension [6] - Attention should be paid to the new dynamics of Sino - Canadian and US - Canadian economic and trade relations. The short - term rapeseed products are expected to be in a shock pattern [6] Corn - The main corn contract C2603 continues to fluctuate. The national grain sales progress is nearly 60%, and the spot prices in the Northeast and North ports are falling [7] - The downstream enterprises' Spring Festival stocking is basically over, and the trading is dull. The short - term Dalian corn futures are expected to be in a weak shock pattern [7] Live Pigs - The live pig futures are running weakly, and the spot prices are mainly falling. The slaughter rhythm is accelerating, and the second - fattening pigs still need to be slaughtered [8] - In the medium and long term, due to the increasing slaughter pressure, the pig price is expected to have a low point in the first half of next year [8] Eggs - The egg futures are fluctuating, and the spot prices are falling. The egg price is expected to be weak after the Spring Festival [9] - The chicken - chick replenishment in January shows a recovery, and the egg price in the first half of 2026 has the power to repair upwards. The futures trading strategy is to wait for the spot low point and then configure long positions [9]

研究所 农产品研发报告 花生日报 2026 年 2 月 3 日 | 第一部分 | | | | | 数据 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 花生数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2026/2/3 | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | PK604 | | 7926 | -12 | -0.15% | 10,482 | -18.10% | 53,118 | 5.31% | | PK610 | | 8232 | 20 | 0.24% | 64 | -56.46% | 2,727 | -0.11% | | PK601 | | 8210 | 4 | 0.05% | 2 | -71.43% | 28 | 3.70% | | 现货与基差 | | | | | | | | | | 现货 | | 河南南阳 | 山东济宁 | 山东临沂 | 日照花生粕 | 日照豆粕 | 花生油 | 日照一级豆油 | | 今日报价 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is neutral [3][5] 2. Core Views - The soybean and soybean meal inventories of oil mills are gradually being depleted, with a shortage of near - month arrivals. Affected by the macro - level recently, domestic soybean meal prices have been oscillating strongly. However, due to the expected high yield of the new - season Brazilian soybeans, the supply pressure will gradually be released in the future, and soybean meal prices are expected to mainly oscillate [2] - As the Spring Festival approaches, the enthusiasm of grain farmers and traders to sell grains has improved, but the snowfall has slowed down the purchase and sales rhythm. On the demand side, the north - south port inventories are still relatively low, with a certain replenishment demand. Deep - processing and feed enterprises' inventories have increased significantly after previous restocking and are currently mainly purchasing as needed, lacking obvious guiding factors before the festival [4] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal 3.1.1 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2605 contract was 2750 yuan/ton, a change of - 17 yuan/ton (- 0.61%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2605 contract was 2276 yuan/ton, a change of - 11 yuan/ton (- 0.48%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3160 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a spot basis of M05 + 410 (a change of + 7 from the previous day); in Jiangsu, it was 3040 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a spot basis of M05 + 290 (a change of + 7 from the previous day); in Guangdong, it was 3040 yuan/ton, a change of - 30 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a spot basis of M05 + 290 (a change of - 13 from the previous day). In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2470 yuan/ton, a change of - 20 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a spot basis of RM05 + 194 (a change of - 9 from the previous day) [1] - Market News: As of January 28, the sowing of the 2025/26 soybean season in Argentina was 99.5% complete, up from 96.2% a week ago. Currently, 83.8% of the soybean crops are rated normal to good, slightly lower than the previous report [1] 3.1.2 Market Analysis - The soybean and soybean meal inventories of oil mills are being gradually consumed, with less near - month arrivals. Waiting for the new - season Brazilian soybeans to arrive, and affected by the macro - level recently, domestic soybean meal prices are oscillating strongly. However, due to the high - yield pressure of the new - season Brazilian soybeans, the supply pressure will gradually be released in the future, and soybean meal prices are expected to mainly oscillate [2] 3.1.3 Strategy - The strategy for soybean meal is neutral [3] 3.2 Corn and Corn Starch 3.2.1 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2603 contract was 2261 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton (- 0.44%) from the previous day; the corn starch 2603 contract was 2513 yuan/ton, a change of - 8 yuan/ton (- 0.32%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day, and the spot basis was C03 + 69 (no change from the previous day); in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2630 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day, and the spot basis was CS03 + 117 (a change of + 8 from the previous day) [3] - Market News: As of January 28, the corn planting area in Argentina for the 2025/26 season was 97.2% of the total expected area (7.8 million hectares), up from 93.1% a week ago [3] 3.2.2 Market Analysis - As the Spring Festival approaches, the enthusiasm of grain farmers and traders to sell grains has improved, but the snowfall has slowed down the purchase and sales rhythm. The north - south port inventories are still relatively low, with a certain replenishment demand. Deep - processing and feed enterprises' inventories have increased significantly after previous restocking and are currently mainly purchasing as needed, lacking obvious guiding factors before the festival [4] 3.2.3 Strategy - The strategy for corn is neutral [5]

农产品日报 | 2026-02-03 棉价内强外弱，郑糖低位整理 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2605合约14575元/吨，较前一日变动-95元/吨，幅度-0.65%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价15806元/吨，较前一日变动-134元/吨，现货基差CF05+1231，较前一日变动-39；3128B棉全国均价16070元/吨， 较前一日变动-113元/吨，现货基差CF05+1495，较前一日变动-18。 近期市场资讯，据美国农业部（USDA）报告，1月23日至1月29日，美国2025/26年度棉花分级检验2.44万吨，78.1% 的皮棉达到ICE期棉交割要求。其中陆地棉检验量为2.14万吨，皮马棉为0.30万吨。至同期，累计分级检验296.18 万吨，81.8%的皮棉达到ICE期棉交割要求。其中陆地棉检验量为287.90万吨，皮马棉为8.28万吨。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡收跌。国际方面，25/26年度全球供需格局整体仍偏宽松，最新一周美棉出口签约再度转弱，终 端需求受关税政策以及地缘政治局势恶化影响，整体表现疲软，短期ICE美棉预计仍将维持低位震荡。中长期看， 美棉已处于低估 ...