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ICE农产品期货主力合约收盘全线下跌,咖啡期货跌7.56% 09-18 02:20Wind AI
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-09-17 22:12
Group 1 - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) agricultural futures saw a decline across all major contracts on September 17, with raw sugar futures dropping by 2.45% to 15.51 cents per pound [1] - Cotton futures decreased by 0.74%, closing at 67.18 cents per pound [1] - Cocoa futures fell by 0.26%, settling at $7352.00 per ton [1] - Coffee futures experienced a significant drop of 7.56%, ending at 378.40 cents per pound [1]
银河期货花生日报-20250917
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-09-17 09:51
Report Overview - The report is a peanut daily report dated September 17, 2025, provided by the Commodity Research Institute's Agricultural Product R & D department [1][2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Recently, the prices of domestic peanuts and imported peanuts have remained stable. Although the supply is still low and downstream demand is weak, peanut prices are expected to remain relatively stable in the short - term. Peanut oil and peanut meal prices are also stable, and oil mills' theoretical profit is acceptable. The 11 - contract peanuts are starting to strengthen and will experience short - term bottom - range fluctuations. It is expected that the output of the new peanut season will be similar to last year, and with the decrease in planting costs and the partial listing of new peanuts, the 11 - contract peanuts will continue to fluctuate within a narrow range [5][11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data - **Futures Market**: PK604 closed at 7868, up 2 (0.03%), with a trading volume of 12 (up 33.33%) and an open interest of 438 (up 0.46%); PK510 closed at 7818, up 2 (0.03%), with a trading volume of 2,259 (down 56.49%) and an open interest of 10,545 (down 11.45%); PK601 closed at 7828, up 8 (0.10%), with a trading volume of 8,669 (down 54.73%) and an open interest of 46,165 (up 2.74%) [3] - **Spot Market**: In Henan Nanyang, peanuts were priced at 8600 yuan/ton (down 400 yuan/ton); in Shandong Jining and Linyi, they were 8400 yuan/ton (stable). The price of Rizhao peanut meal was 3350 yuan/ton (stable), Rizhao soybean meal was 2970 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton), peanut oil was 14670 yuan/ton (stable), and Rizhao first - grade soybean oil was 8560 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan/ton). The import price of Sudanese peanuts was 8500 yuan/ton (stable) [3] - **Spread**: The PK01 - PK04 spread was - 40 (up 6); the PK04 - PK10 spread was 50 (stable); the PK10 - PK01 spread was - 10 (down 6) [3] 3.2 Market Analysis - In the Northeast, the price of 308 common peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin was 4 yuan/jin (up 0.1 yuan/jin), and in Changtu, Liaoning was 4.1 yuan/jin (down 0.05 yuan/jin). In Henan, the price of Baisha common peanuts was 4.2 - 4.35 yuan/jin (down 0.1 yuan/jin), and in Junan, Shandong was 4.1 yuan/jin (stable). The price of imported Sudanese refined peanuts was 8150 yuan/ton, and Senegalese oil peanuts were 7600 - 7800 yuan/ton (stable). Most peanut oil mills stopped purchasing today, with the pre - stop mainstream transaction price at 7300 - 7900 yuan/ton and the theoretical break - even price at 8050 yuan/ton. Domestic first - grade ordinary peanut oil was priced at 14800 yuan/ton (stable), and small - pressed fragrant peanut oil was 16500 yuan/ton (stable). Rizhao soybean meal was 2970 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton), and the unit - protein spread between peanut meal and soybean meal was high, with peanut meal expected to be weak in the short - term [5][9] 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: The 11 - contract peanuts are fluctuating at a low level. Currently, it is advisable to wait and see. After stabilization, one can try to go long on the 05 - contract peanuts [12] - **Spread**: Wait and see [13] - **Options**: Hold the short position of pk511 - P - 7600 [14] 3.4 Related Attachments - The report provides six charts, including the spot price of Shandong peanuts, peanut oil mill's profit, peanut oil price, the basis between peanut spot and continuous contracts, the spread between the 10 - 1 contracts, and the spread between the 1 - 4 contracts [16][22][25]
光大期货农产品日报-20250917
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-17 07:12
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Corn: The 11 - month contract of corn is in a downward trend. New grain is gradually being listed, and the price has no significant fluctuations. The downstream feed mills mainly use inventory and make small - scale replenishments. Short - term attention should be paid to whether the January contract can break through the price low in mid - August. Short - term, beware of price rebounds after a sharp decline, and maintain a short - selling strategy in the medium - term [1]. - Soybean Meal: CBOT soybeans reached a two - week high on Tuesday. The domestic soybean meal spot market continues to fluctuate. The previous negative factors in the supply - demand report and the spot market have been digested. With sufficient domestic supply and increased apparent consumption, the price will mainly fluctuate. The strategy is to participate in short - term long positions [1]. - Oils: BMD palm oil was closed for holidays on Monday and Tuesday. The price of domestic oil futures has strengthened, with rapeseed oil leading the rise and breaking through the 10,000 - yuan/ton mark. The market atmosphere is generally optimistic, and the oils are in a strong - side fluctuation. The strategy is to buy volatility or sell put options [1]. - Eggs: The spot price of eggs continues to rebound. The futures price has lifted from the bottom due to spot market support, but the inference of a downward trend in production capacity needs verification. It is recommended to wait and see and participate with a light position. Continuously monitor the impact of the breeding side's replenishment and elimination sentiment on supply and market sentiment [2]. - Pigs: The futures price of pigs is fluctuating weakly, and the spot price continues to decline. The supply side still exerts pressure on the price. The market is waiting for policy guidance, and attention should be paid to the impact of market sentiment on the futures price [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Research Views - **Corn**: The 11 - month contract has reduced positions and adjusted, with the futures price continuing to decline. New grain is gradually being listed, and the price of the sales area has not changed. The overall market sentiment is bearish. In the short - term, beware of price rebounds after a sharp decline, and maintain a short - selling strategy in the medium - term [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans rose due to optimistic export expectations and uncertain crop yields. The domestic soybean meal spot market is in a volatile state, and the strategy is to participate in short - term long positions [1]. - **Oils**: BMD palm oil was closed for holidays. The domestic oil futures market strengthened, with rapeseed oil leading the rise. The market atmosphere is optimistic, and the strategy is to buy volatility or sell put options [1]. - **Eggs**: The spot price of eggs rebounded, and the futures price lifted from the bottom. However, the trend of production capacity decline needs verification. It is recommended to wait and see and participate with a light position [2]. - **Pigs**: The futures price of pigs is fluctuating weakly, and the spot price continues to decline. The supply side exerts pressure on the price, and the market is waiting for policy guidance [2]. Market Information - The外交部 has no information on whether Chinese and US leaders will talk this week [3]. - Kenanga Research predicts that edible oil prices, including palm oil, will remain firm in 2025 and 2026 due to supply lagging behind demand [3]. - OPEC+ representatives will hold a meeting in Vienna on September 18 - 19 to discuss updating member countries' production capacity estimates [3]. - As of the end of the 37th week (September 13), the average operating rate of domestic oil mills increased by 2.71% to 64.99%, and the total soybean crushing volume increased by 101,300 tons to 2.4298 million tons [3]. - Huachu.com will conduct a central reserve frozen pork rotation and delivery auction on September 18, with 15,000 tons of domestic frozen pork up for auction [4]. Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: Presented the 1 - 5 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [6][7][11][15]. - **Contract Basis**: Presented the basis of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [14][17][18][24]. Introduction of the Agricultural Product Research Team - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute. She has won multiple awards and has rich experience [26]. - Hou Xueling is an analyst of soybeans at Everbright Futures, with more than ten years of futures experience and many awards [26]. - Kong Hailan is a researcher of eggs and pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a master's degree in economics and rich experience [26].
广发期货《农产品》日报-20250917
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-17 06:40
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided in the given reports. Group 2: Core Views of the Reports 粕类产业 - Domestic two - meal decline space is limited, and the cost support expectation of meal products in the fourth quarter is still strong. It is expected that 01 will operate in the range of 3000 - 3100 [1]. 生猪产业 - The slaughter volume of the breeding end has increased, and the spot pressure has been continuously realized. The short - term rebound of the futures price does not rule out the possibility of subsequent decline, and it is expected that the futures and spot prices will continue to bottom out [3]. 油脂 industry - Palm oil futures are expected to gradually rise to around 4500 ringgit and maintain a strong consolidation. Domestic palm oil futures are expected to follow the upward trend. For soybean oil, the supply in the United States supports the market, and the domestic soybean oil inventory has increased. The spot basis quotation may rise with the reduction of soybean supply [7]. 玉米 industry - In the short term, the market supply and demand are loose, and the futures price fluctuates weakly; in the medium term, it maintains a weak situation, and short - selling should be cautious [8]. 白糖 industry - The raw sugar price is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern. The domestic spot pressure still exists. The futures price is expected to stabilize around 5500 in the short term, but the rebound space is limited, and the idea of selling high is still maintained later [12]. cotton industry - In the short term, domestic cotton prices may fluctuate within a range, and will be under pressure after the new cotton is listed in the long term [14]. egg industry - The demand may drive up the egg price to the annual high, but the supply side may suppress the increase. After the replenishment of traders ends next week, the egg price in some areas may decline slightly [18]. Group 3: Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 粕类产业 - **豆粕**: The current price in Jiangsu is 3030 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the futures price of M2601 is 3041 yuan, down 1 yuan; the basis is - 11 yuan, up 1 yuan; the spot basis in Jiangsu is m2601 - 90; the Brazilian 11 - month shipping schedule's disk import profit is 7 yuan, up 13 yuan [1]. - **菜粕**: The current price in Jiangsu is 2620 yuan, up 20 yuan; the futures price of RM2601 is 2518 yuan, up 14 yuan; the basis is 102 yuan, up 6 yuan; the Canadian 11 - month shipping schedule's disk import profit is 866 yuan, up 103 yuan [1]. - **Soybean**: The current price of Harbin soybeans is 3980 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean contract is 3924 yuan, down 15 yuan; the basis is 56 yuan, up 15 yuan; the current price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu is 3900 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean - 2 contract is 3729 yuan, up 1 yuan; the basis is 171 yuan, down 1 yuan [1]. - **Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread of soybean meal is 239 yuan, up 1 yuan; the 01 - 05 spread of rapeseed meal is 121 yuan, up 10 yuan; the spot oil - meal ratio is 2.86, up 0.017; the main contract oil - meal ratio is 2.77, up 0.015; the spot soybean - rapeseed meal spread is 410 yuan, down 20 yuan; the 2601 spread is 523 yuan, down 15 yuan [1]. 生猪 industry - **Futures indicators**: The main contract basis is - 550 yuan, down 105 yuan; the price of live - hog 2511 is 13160 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan; the price of live - hog 2601 is 13680 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the 11 - 1 spread is - 520 yuan, down 50 yuan; the main contract position is 84857, up 3795 [3]. - **Spot prices**: The prices in Henan, Shandong, Liaoning, Guangdong, Hunan, and Hebei have all decreased to varying degrees [3]. - **Spot indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points is 149204, up 1122; the weekly white - strip price is 20.10 yuan, unchanged; the weekly piglet price is 26.00 yuan/kg, unchanged; the weekly sow price is 32.51 yuan, unchanged; the weekly slaughter weight is 128.32 kg, up 0.1 kg; the weekly self - breeding profit is 17 yuan/head, down 35.8 yuan; the weekly purchased - piglet breeding profit is - 162 yuan, down 35.7 yuan; the monthly fertile sow inventory is 40420000 heads, down 10000 heads [3]. 油脂 industry - **Soybean oil**: The futures price of Y2601 is 8122 yuan, up 46 yuan; the basis is 238 yuan, up 4 yuan; the spot basis in Jiangsu in September is 01 + 210; the warehouse receipt is 24544, unchanged [7]. - **Palm oil**: The current price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9400 yuan, up 80 yuan; the futures price of P2601 is 9252 yuan, up 78 yuan; the basis is 148 yuan, up 2 yuan; the spot basis in Guangdong in September is 01 + 20; the disk import cost in Guangzhou Port in September is 9679.8 yuan, up 39.2 yuan; the disk import profit is - 428 yuan, up 39 yuan; the warehouse receipt is 1570, unchanged [7]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The current price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10060 yuan, up 120 yuan; the futures price of Ol601 is 9586 yuan, up 75 yuan; the basis is 474 yuan, up 45 yuan; the spot basis in Jiangsu in September is 01 + 200; the warehouse receipt is 8202, unchanged [7]. - **Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread of soybean oil is 296 yuan, down 4 yuan; the 01 - 05 spread of palm oil is 230 yuan, down 18 yuan; the 01 - 05 spread of rapeseed oil is 467 yuan, up 78 yuan; the spot soybean - palm oil spread is - 740 yuan, down 30 yuan; the 2601 soybean - palm oil spread is - 1064 yuan, down 18 yuan; the spot rapeseed - soybean oil spread is 1400 yuan, up 70 yuan; the 2601 rapeseed - soybean oil spread is 1635 yuan, up 111 yuan [7]. 玉米 industry - **Corn**: The price of corn 2511 at Jinzhou Port's flat - hatch price is 2166 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; the basis is 144 yuan, up 1 yuan; the 11 - 3 spread is - 2 yuan, up 3 yuan; the Shekou bulk grain price is 2420 yuan/ton, unchanged; the north - south trade profit is 39 yuan, unchanged; the CIF price is 1941 yuan, down 2 yuan; the import profit is 479 yuan, up 2 yuan; the number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning is 1003, up 379; the position is 1573720, up 2703; the warehouse receipt is 43975, up 232 [8]. - **Corn starch**: The price of corn starch 2511 is 2443 yuan, unchanged; the spot price in Changchun is 2560 yuan, unchanged; the spot price in Weifang is 2800 yuan, unchanged; the basis is 117 yuan, unchanged; the 11 - 3 spread is - 32 yuan, up 10 yuan; the starch - corn futures spread is 277 yuan, up 1 yuan; the Shandong starch profit is - 33 yuan, up 3 yuan; the position is 335166, up 8120; the warehouse receipt is 9217, down 21 [8]. 白糖 industry - **Futures market**: The price of sugar 2601 is 5547 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the price of sugar 2605 is 5525 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the ICE raw sugar main contract is 15.88 cents/pound, down 0.08 cents; the 1 - 5 spread is 23 yuan/ton, unchanged; the main contract position is 385623, up 4016; the warehouse receipt is 11268, down 57; the effective forecast is 0, unchanged [12]. - **Spot market**: The price in Nanning is 5890 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Kunming is 5865 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the Nanning basis is 366 yuan, up 2 yuan; the Kunming basis is 341 yuan, up 12 yuan; the imported Brazilian sugar (within quota) is 4418 yuan, up 20 yuan; the imported Brazilian sugar (out - of - quota) is 5611 yuan, up 26 yuan; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar (within quota) and Nanning is - 1472 yuan, up 20 yuan; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar (out - of - quota) and Nanning is - 279 yuan, up 26 yuan [12]. - **Industry situation**: The cumulative national sugar production is 1116.21 million tons, up 119.89 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales is 1000.00 million tons, up 114.00 million tons; the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi is 646.50 million tons, up 28.36 million tons; the monthly sugar sales in Guangxi is 26.02 million tons, down 9.69 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales rate is 89.60%, up 0.66%; the cumulative sugar sales rate in Guangxi is 89.04%, up 0.62%; the national industrial inventory is 116.00 million tons, up 5.78 million tons; the sugar industrial inventory in Guangxi is 70.87 million tons, down 1.61 million tons; the sugar industrial inventory in Yunnan is 33.65 million tons, up 7.07 million tons; the sugar import is 13.00 million tons, up 8.00 million tons [12]. cotton industry - **Futures market**: The price of cotton 2605 is 13860 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the price of cotton 2601 is 13882 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the ICE US cotton main contract is 67.67 cents/pound, up 0.85 cents; the 5 - 1 spread is - 35 yuan/ton, unchanged; the main contract position is 492631, down 5664; the warehouse receipt is 4759, down 140; the effective forecast is 12, up 10 [14]. - **Spot market**: The arrival price of Xinjiang 3128B cotton is 15214 yuan, up 47 yuan; the CC Index 3128B is 15300 yuan, up 51 yuan; the FC Index M 1% is 13388 yuan/ton, unchanged; the difference between 3128B and the 01 contract is 1354 yuan, up 37 yuan; the difference between 3128B and the 05 contract is 1319 yuan, up 37 yuan; the difference between CC Index 3128B and FC Index M 1% is 1912 yuan, up 51 yuan [14]. - **Industry situation**: The industrial inventory is 148.17 million tons, down 33.85 million tons; the industrial inventory is 89.23 million tons, down 3.19 million tons; the import volume is 5.00 million tons, up 2.00 million tons; the bonded area inventory is 29.10 million tons, up 0.20 million tons; the year - on - year inventory of the textile industry is - 0.20%, down 1.00%; the yarn inventory days is 26.58 days, down 0.65 days; the grey fabric inventory days is 33.87 days, down 1.31 days; the cotton outbound shipping volume is 53.46 million tons, up 9.86 million tons; the immediate processing profit of spinning enterprises C32s is - 2055.00 yuan/ton, down 36.10 yuan; the retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and knitted textiles is 1045.00 billion yuan, up 83.70 billion yuan; the year - on - year monthly retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and knitted textiles is 3.10%, up 1.30%; the export value of textile yarns, fabrics, and products is 123.93 billion US dollars, up 7.89 billion US dollars; the year - on - year monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics, and products is 1.43%, up 0.91%; the export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 141.46 billion US dollars, down 10.16 billion US dollars; the year - on - year export value of clothing and clothing accessories is - 10.08%, down 9.47% [14]. egg industry - **Futures indicators**: The price of the egg 11 contract is 3113 yuan/500KG, down 30 yuan; the price of the egg 10 contract is 3090 yuan/500KG, down 36 yuan; the 11 - 10 spread is 23 yuan, up 6 yuan [17]. - **Spot indicators**: The egg - producing area price is 3.76 yuan/jin, up 0.10 yuan; the basis is 130 yuan/500KG, up 130 yuan; the egg - chick price is 2.60 yuan/feather, down 0.40 yuan; the culled - hen price is 4.61 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan; the egg - feed ratio is 2.50, up 0.07; the breeding profit is - 17.89 yuan/feather, up 4.71 yuan [17].
农产品日报:郑棉震荡偏强,糖价窄幅波动-20250917
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-17 02:23
Report Industry Investment Rating - All three commodities (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [3][6][8] Core Viewpoints - For cotton, the global cotton supply - demand situation is expected to improve, with short - term support for domestic cotton prices but potential downward pressure in the medium - term and upward potential in the long - term [2][3] - For sugar, the Brazilian sugar production situation and domestic sales performance affect the price, with short - term downward pressure but limited further decline space [5][6] - For pulp, the supply pressure remains, and demand is weak, with short - term prices expected to continue low - level fluctuations [7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: Cotton 2601 contract closed at 13,895 yuan/ton yesterday, up 10 yuan/ton (+0.07%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: 3128B cotton Xinjiang arrival price was 15,214 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan/ton; national average price was 15,300 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan/ton [1] - US cotton: As of September 14, the boll opening rate was 50%, 3 percentage points slower than last year and 1 point faster than the five - year average; the harvest rate was 9%, 1 point slower than last year and 1 point faster than the five - year average; the good - excellent rate was 52%, 13 points higher than last year and 10 points higher than the five - year average [1] Market Analysis - International: The September USDA report adjusted up global cotton production, consumption, and trade volume, and adjusted down initial and ending stocks. The US cotton supply - demand data changed little, with only a slight increase in production. The new - year supply - demand of US cotton is expected to improve, but short - term upside is limited due to slow export sales [2] - Domestic: Cotton de - stocking is fast, and commercial inventory is at a historical low. The supply is still tight at the end of the year, and demand improves marginally in the peak season. However, new - year production is expected to increase, and hedging pressure may be high during the new cotton listing [2] Strategy - If the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season fails, Zhengzhou cotton may fall. In the long - term, the supply - demand is not expected to be too loose, and the cotton price center may rise after seasonal pressure [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: Sugar 2601 contract closed at 5,547 yuan/ton yesterday, down 2 yuan/ton (-0.04%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: Guangxi Nanning sugar price was 5,890 yuan/ton, unchanged; Yunnan Kunming price was 5,865 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [4] - Market information: Brazilian mid - southern sugarcane yield in August decreased by 1.6% year - on - year, and the sugar extraction rate decreased by 2.9%. German beet sugar production in 2025/26 is expected to drop by 4.9% [4] Market Analysis - Raw sugar: The sugar production in Brazil's mid - southern region increased in August, and the northern hemisphere has an increasing production expectation, which suppresses the raw sugar price. However, the ethanol price provides support, and the downward space is limited [5] - Zhengzhou sugar: Domestic sales in August were poor, and the market worried about syrup policy relaxation. The domestic price is under downward pressure, but the downward space is limited after continuous decline [5][6] Strategy - Adopt an approach of waiting for a rebound after bottom - grinding in the short - term [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: Pulp 2511 contract closed at 5,068 yuan/ton yesterday, up 12 yuan/ton (+0.24%) from the previous day [6] - Spot: Shandong Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp price was 5,650 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; Russian softwood pulp price was 5,140 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [6] - Market information: The import wood pulp spot market had more price increases than decreases, with some prices adjusted by 10 - 150 yuan/ton [6] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills have announced production cuts, but it hasn't significantly changed the supply pattern. Domestic pulp production capacity will increase in the second half of the year, and wood pulp imports are expected to decline. Port inventory is at a high level, and supply pressure remains [7] - Demand: European and American pulp consumption is weak, and global pulp mill inventory pressure is emerging. Domestic demand is weak, with paper mills' raw material procurement cautious and low operating rates [7] Strategy - The pulp market fundamentals have no obvious improvement, and prices are expected to continue low - level fluctuations in the short - term [8]
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:农产品-20250917
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-17 01:37
Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products of Guotai Junan Futures on September 17, 2025, covering multiple agricultural products such as palm oil, soybean oil, and corn [1]. 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Palm oil: Supported by U.S. soybean oil and macro - level factors [2]. - Soybean oil: U.S. soybeans continued to rise, and the outcome of China - U.S. negotiations should be monitored [2]. - Soybean meal: Due to optimistic trade sentiment, it is in a low - level oscillation [2]. - Soybean No.1: In oscillation [2]. - Corn: Operating in an oscillatory manner [2]. - Sugar: With a weak basis [2]. - Cotton: The market is focused on the listing of new cotton [2]. - Eggs: The peak season for spot sales is ending, and inventory remains high [2]. - Pigs: Policy expectations have materialized, but the weakness of the spot market is difficult to change [2]. - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the listing of new peanuts [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: Palm oil's daily - session closing price was 9,482 yuan/ton with a 0.64% increase, and the night - session was 9,524 yuan/ton with a 0.44% increase; soybean oil's daily - session closing price was 8,418 yuan/ton with a 0.50% increase, and the night - session was 8,452 yuan/ton with a 0.40% increase [5]. - Spot: Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong) was 9,400 yuan/ton with an 80 - yuan increase; first - grade soybean oil (Guangdong) was 8,750 yuan/ton with a 50 - yuan increase [5]. - Basis and Spread: Palm oil (Guangdong) basis was - 82 yuan/ton; the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 1,064 yuan/ton [5]. - **Macro and Industry News** - Kenanga Research predicted that edible oil prices, including palm oil, would remain firm in 2025 and 2026 due to supply lagging behind demand [6]. - Anec expected Brazil's soybean exports in September to reach 753 million tons and soybean meal exports to be 219 million tons [7]. - Abiove maintained Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production forecast at 170.3 million tons, and adjusted some production and export forecasts for soybean products [7]. - **Trend Intensity** - Palm oil and soybean oil trend intensities were both 0, indicating a neutral outlook [11]. Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: DCE Soybean No.1 2511's daily - session closing price was 3,924 yuan/ton with a 0.46% decrease; DCE Soybean Meal 2601's daily - session closing price was 3,041 yuan/ton with a 0.33% decrease [12]. - Spot: In Shandong, soybean meal prices were between 3,020 - 3,040 yuan/ton, with some price adjustments compared to the previous day [12]. - Industry Data: The trading volume of soybean meal was 13.38 million tons per day, and the inventory was 110.85 million tons per week [12]. - **Macro and Industry News** - On September 16, CBOT soybean futures closed higher due to optimistic sentiment about China - U.S. trade negotiations and uncertainty about U.S. soybean production [12]. - **Trend Intensity** - The trend intensities of soybean meal and soybean No.1 were both 0, indicating a neutral outlook [14]. Corn - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: C2511's daily - session closing price was 2,166 yuan/ton with a 0.55% decrease, and the night - session was 2,169 yuan/ton with a 0.14% increase [16]. - Spot: The price at Jinzhou's平仓 was 2,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [16]. - Spread: The basis of the main 11 - contract was 134 yuan/ton [16]. - **Macro and Industry News** - Northern corn collection and port prices remained stable, and prices in different regions showed different trends [17]. - **Trend Intensity** - The corn trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral outlook [18]. Sugar - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: The main futures price was 5,547 yuan/ton with a 2 - yuan decrease [19]. - Spot: The mainstream spot price was 5,940 yuan/ton, unchanged [19]. - Basis and Spread: The mainstream spot basis was 393 yuan/ton with a 2 - yuan increase; the 15 - spread was 23 yuan/ton, unchanged [19]. - **Macro and Industry News** - India's monsoon precipitation increased again; Brazil's sugar exports decreased; Conab lowered the forecast of Brazil's 25/26 sugar production [19]. - In the domestic market, production, consumption, and import forecasts for different seasons were provided, and there were expectations of a decrease in sucrose yield and an increase in production costs in Guangxi [20]. - In the international market, ISO predicted a global sugar supply shortage in the 25/26 and 24/25 seasons [21]. - **Trend Intensity** - The sugar trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral outlook [22]. Cotton - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: CF2601's daily - session closing price was 13,895 yuan/ton with a 0.07% increase, and the night - session was 13,940 yuan/ton with a 0.32% increase [23]. - Spot: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,162 yuan/ton with a 10 - yuan increase [23]. - Spread: The CF1 - 5 spread was 35 yuan/ton, unchanged [23]. - **Macro and Industry News** - The domestic cotton spot market was quiet, waiting for new cotton to be listed; the cotton textile market was lackluster, with slow - moving prices [24]. - ICE cotton futures rose by over 1%, following the overall strength of the commodity market, and the market was watching the Fed's interest - rate decision [24]. - **Trend Intensity** - The cotton trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral outlook [27]. Eggs - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: Egg 2510's closing price was 3,090 yuan/500 kilograms with a 0.99% decrease; Egg 2601's closing price was 3,378 yuan/500 kilograms with a 0.03% increase [29]. - Spot: The price of eggs in Liaoning was 3.60 yuan/jin, up from the previous day [29]. - Spread: The Egg 10 - 1 spread was - 288 yuan, down from the previous day [29]. - **Trend Intensity** - The egg trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral outlook [29]. Pigs - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: Pig 2511's price was 13,275 yuan/ton with a 20 - yuan increase; Pig 2601's price was 13,745 yuan/ton with a 55 - yuan increase [32]. - Spot: The price of pigs in Henan was 13,230 yuan/ton with a 100 - yuan decrease [32]. - Spread: The Pig 2511 basis was - 45 yuan/ton with a 120 - yuan decrease; the Pig 11 - 1 spread was - 470 yuan/ton with a 35 - yuan decrease [32]. - **Market Logic** - The supply in September was large, and the market pressure was increasing. The spot price was expected to decline further. Attention should be paid to the downward trend of the central price in March and May. The short - term LH2511 contract had a support level of 12,500 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 13,500 yuan/ton [34]. - **Trend Intensity** - The pig trend intensity was - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [33]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: PK510's closing price was 7,816 yuan/ton with a 0.10% increase; PK511's closing price was 7,796 yuan/ton with a 0.57% increase [36]. - Spot: The price of Liaoning 308 common peanuts was 8,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Henan Baisha common peanuts was 8,100 yuan/ton with a 160 - yuan decrease [36]. - Spread: The basis of Liaoning 308 common peanuts was 384 yuan/ton; the 10 - 11 inter - period spread was 20 yuan/ton [36]. - **Spot Market Focus** - In different regions, new peanuts were gradually being listed, with small trading volumes and generally stable prices [37]. - **Trend Intensity** - The peanut trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral outlook [38].
【环球财经】芝加哥农产品期价16日全线上涨
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-09-17 00:35
新华财经纽约9月16日电(记者徐静)芝加哥期货交易所玉米、小麦和大豆期价16日全线上涨。 当天,芝加哥期货交易所玉米市场交投最活跃的12月合约收于每蒲式耳4.2900美元,比前一交易日上涨 5.75美分,涨幅为1.36%;小麦12月合约收于每蒲式耳5.3350美元,比前一交易日上涨8.50美分,涨幅为 1.62%;大豆11月合约收于每蒲式耳10.4900美元,比前一交易日上涨6.25美分,涨幅为0.60%。 芝加哥期货交易所农产品期价走高,玉米收复15日失地,大豆11月合约测试10.50-10.60美元图表阻力价 位,芝加哥小麦12月合约下一个阻力价位为5.40美元。早期买盘始于大豆,随后蔓延至玉米。预计10月 份美国玉米、大豆单产下降是当天农产品价格上涨的主要原因。 2025-2026年度欧盟小麦出口计划进展极其缓慢。截至9月14日,欧盟仅出口378万吨小麦,较上年下降 34%。黑海和欧盟小麦出口销售低迷,令业界对世界小麦交易协会预测的本作物年度全球小麦贸易量增 加600万吨的前景存疑。 (文章来源:新华财经) ...
芝加哥小麦期货涨超1.6%,大豆油涨约1.8%
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-09-16 21:56
Core Viewpoint - The Bloomberg Grain Index increased by 1.24% to 29.7981 points, showing a consistent upward trend throughout the day [1] Group 1: Commodity Futures Performance - CBOT corn futures rose by 1.36%, reaching $4.29 per bushel [1] - CBOT wheat futures increased by 1.62%, closing at $5.3350 per bushel [1] - CBOT soybean futures saw a rise of 0.60%, priced at $10.49 per bushel [1] - Soybean meal futures gained 0.14% [1] - Soybean oil futures experienced a significant increase of 1.78% [1]
进口玉米拍卖增量,期货跌幅较大
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-16 06:59
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The corn market is expected to have a short - term bearish and long - term bullish pattern, with short - term attention on selling opportunities on rallies and potential reverse arbitrage opportunities [1][9]. - The protein meal market is expected to continue range - bound trading, with long positions held at 2900 - 2910 and opportunities to add positions on dips. Oil mills are advised to sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises are suggested to buy basis contracts or price at low levels [7]. - The hog market is expected to have low - level oscillations in the short term, and the supply pressure may gradually weaken in 2026 if the de - capacity policy is effectively implemented [9]. - The natural rubber market is expected to be oscillating and bullish in the short term, while the synthetic rubber market is expected to continue its oscillating trend [11][13]. - The cotton market is expected to have short - term range - bound trading, with support at 13800 yuan/ton and resistance at 14300 yuan/ton [14]. - The sugar market is expected to be bearish in the long term and may stop falling and rebound in the short term, with a trading range of 5500 - 5750 [16]. - The pulp market is expected to have an oscillating trend, with an expected trading range of 4950 - 5300 [17]. - The offset paper market is recommended for range - bound operations between 4000 - 4500 [18]. - The log market is expected to stop falling and stabilize in September, with a possible range of 780 - 840 [20]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1行情观点 3.1.1油脂 - Despite the bearish USDA September supply - demand report, the domestic oils and fats oscillated strongly on the previous day. The market is focused on the Fed's September interest - rate meeting, and the crude oil price was strong due to regional tensions. - The US soybean yield may be further revised down, and the domestic soybean oil inventory may peak. The Malaysian palm oil may continue to accumulate inventory in September, and the demand for palm oil in Indonesian biodiesel may be better than expected. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory is slowly declining but still high year - on - year. - In the short term, pay attention to the sustainability of the upward trend, and in the medium term, the probability of price increases is high [5]. 3.1.2蛋白粕 - Internationally, the Fed is likely to cut interest rates, and the US - China talks were held in Spain. The US soybean yield was slightly revised down, and the end - inventory consumption ratio increased slightly. The probability of La Nina from September to November is 55%. The Brazilian soybean planting progress should be monitored. - Domestically, the double - meal prices fell due to the neutral - bearish supply - demand report and the US - China talks. In the short term, the oil mills' soybean meal inventory continues to accumulate, and the feed enterprises' physical inventory is slightly increasing. In the long term, there is no supply gap before December, and the demand for soybean meal may increase steadily [7]. 3.1.3玉米及淀粉 - The domestic corn prices showed mixed trends. The supply side is affected by the active selling of old - crop grains and the expected new - crop harvest pressure. The demand side sees some support from the replenishment of small - scale feed enterprises in the south. - In the short term, there are opportunities to sell on rallies and potential reverse arbitrage opportunities. In the long term, the market is not pessimistic [1][9]. 3.1.4生猪 - In the short term, the supply of hogs is abundant, and the price is under pressure. In the medium term, the pig supply is expected to increase. In the long term, if the de - capacity policy is effective, the supply pressure will gradually weaken in 2026 [9]. 3.1.5天然橡胶 - After a sharp decline last week, the rubber price rebounded. The supply side needs to monitor the production increase and inventory reduction. The demand side needs to observe the downstream procurement intention. - In the short term, the price is expected to be oscillating and bullish [11]. 3.1.6合成橡胶 - The BR futures rebounded slightly after stabilizing. It mainly follows the trend of natural rubber and is supported by the short - term tight supply of butadiene. - In the short term, the price may be oscillating and bullish [13]. 3.1.7棉花 - Internationally, the global cotton production may not decline significantly. Domestically, the commercial inventory is low, the demand is improving, and the new - cotton opening price is expected to be higher than last year. - In the short term, the price is expected to be range - bound [14]. 3.1.8白糖 - In the long term, the global sugar market supply is expected to be loose, and the price is under downward pressure. In the short term, the fundamental supply is also relatively loose, but the price may stop falling and rebound [16]. 3.1.9纸浆 - After reaching a new low, the pulp futures rebounded. The market sentiment is stable, and the demand is average. The supply side has some new increments, and the demand side is in the seasonal peak season but with a weak upward - transmission effect. - The price is expected to oscillate in the low - level range [17]. 3.1.10双胶纸 - The double - offset paper futures have been oscillating around the listing price of 4200 yuan/ton. The price is at a neutral level, and there is a lack of clear upward or downward drivers. - It is recommended for range - bound operations between 4000 - 4500 [18]. 3.1.11原木 - The log market has been affected by the weak reality and the expectation of the peak season. The inventory is decreasing, and the demand is expected to increase in September. - The price is expected to stop falling and stabilize [20]. 3.2品种数据监测 The report only lists various agricultural product categories such as "油脂油料", "蛋白粕", "玉米、淀粉", etc., but no specific data monitoring content is provided. 3.3评级标准 - The rating standards include "偏强" (expected increase > 2 standard deviations), "震荡偏强" (expected increase of 1 - 2 standard deviations), "震荡" (expected increase/decrease within ±1 standard deviation), "震荡偏弱" (expected decrease of 1 - 2 standard deviations), and "偏弱" (expected decrease > 2 standard deviations). - The time period is the next 2 - 12 weeks, and the standard deviation is calculated as 1 - time standard deviation = 500 - trading - day rolling standard deviation/current price [177].
养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告-20250916
Fang Zheng Zhong Qi Qi Huo· 2025-09-16 06:00
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The soybean oil market is currently mixed with both bullish and bearish factors. The Y2601 contract may oscillate widely between 8250 - 8450 in the short - term and is expected to rise in the long - term. Consider buying out - of - the - money call options or going long on the 01 contract bean oil - meal ratio [3]. - China's temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed imports may lead to a significant reduction in Canadian rapeseed purchases. The rapeseed market is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [3]. - Malaysian palm oil is in a seasonal inventory accumulation phase. The market is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and it is advisable to go long with a light position [4]. - The corn and corn starch markets are under pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [6]. - The hog market is in a low - level consolidation phase. It is advisable to wait for capacity reduction to be confirmed and then consider going long on the 2601 contract [9]. - The egg market has rebounded. It is recommended to avoid short - selling rashly and consider going long on the 2511 contract at a low price [9]. Summary According to the Directory Part One: Sector Strategy Recommendations 1. Market Judgment - For soybeans (including bean one and bean two), the supply is expected to increase, and the market is expected to be bearish or volatile. For peanuts, the new season has increased production and reduced costs, and the market is expected to be volatile. For soy oil, the market is expected to be slightly bullish. For rapeseed oil, the market is expected to be slightly bullish. For palm oil, the market is expected to be slightly bearish. For soybean meal and rapeseed meal, the market is expected to be volatile. For corn and starch, the market is under pressure. For hogs, the market is expected to rebound. For eggs, the market is expected to find a bottom [12]. 2. Commodity Arbitrage - For inter - month spreads, it is recommended to wait and see for most varieties, except for the 3 - 5 spread of soybean meal (go long on the spread) and the 1 - 3 spread of hogs (go long on the spread at a low price) and the 10 - 1 spread of eggs (go long on the spread at a low price). For inter - commodity spreads, it is recommended to go short on the 01 soybean oil - palm oil spread, go long on the 01 rapeseed oil - soybean oil spread, and go long on the 01 bean oil - meal ratio [13][14]. 3. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies - The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various commodities in different sectors, including oilseeds, oils, proteins, energy and by - products, and livestock [15]. Part Two: Key Data Tracking Table 1. Oilseeds and Oils - **Daily Data**: It includes the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and different shipping dates, such as the CNF price, import duty - paid price, and the cost of soybean meal when the crushing profit is zero [17]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the inventory and operating rates of various oilseeds and oils, including soybeans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts [19]. 2. Feed - **Daily Data**: It provides the import cost data of corn from Argentina and Brazil in different months [19]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and inventory of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises [20]. 3. Livestock - It provides daily and weekly data on hogs and eggs, including spot prices, price changes, production, consumption, and inventory data [21][23][25]. Part Three: Fundamental Tracking Charts - It includes a large number of charts related to the livestock, oilseeds and oils, and feed sectors, such as the closing prices of futures contracts, spot prices, inventory, production, and consumption data of various commodities [26][35][60]. Part Four: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils - It provides the historical volatility charts of various commodities' options, such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio of corn options [94]. Part Five: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils - It provides the warehouse receipt quantity charts of various commodities, including rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, hogs, and eggs [97].