6 证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 9 月 18 日 晨会纪要 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 第一创业证券研究所 一、宏观经济组： 事件一： 9 月 18 日（星期四）2 点，美联储公开市场委员会（FOMC）2025 年第六次议息 会议。 邮箱：liuxiaoyu@fcsc.com 点评一： 9 月 18 日凌晨 2 点，美联储公布了 2025 年的第六份利率决议,决定将联邦基金 利率区间下调 25 个基点至 4-4.25%，符合市场预期，这是美联储自去年 9 月开 启降息周期以来，今年前五次暂停降息后首次再度重启降息，投票结果显示， 有投票权的 12 位 FOMC 委员中 11 票赞成，1 票反对，就是刚上任的米兰支持降 息 50 个基点，反对人数少于预期。上次投反对票的特朗普的支持者副主席鲍曼 和理事沃勒出人意外投了赞成票。 本次声明与 7 月相比，有以下不同：删掉了有关"上半年经济增长温和"的说 法，改成"经济活动和就业增长已放缓，劳动力市场的下行风险已经增加"。 具体表现就是就业增长已经放缓，失业率略有上升但仍维持在低位，通胀有所 上升且处于略高水平。在新闻发布会上，鲍威尔强调，应将 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, acknowledging a weakening labor market and mentioning rising inflation [1] - The dot plot indicates two more rate cuts expected this year and one in the next year, with Powell stating that calls for a 50 basis point cut were not strong [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - The S&P 500 closed down 0.10%, while the Dow Jones increased by 0.57%, and the Nasdaq fell by 0.33% [2] - Nvidia dropped over 2.6%, while Tesla rose by 1.01%, with small-cap stocks initially rising before turning to slight declines [3] Group 3: Chinese Stocks Performance - The Chinese concept stock index surged by 2.85%, with notable gains from companies like Baidu and Pinduoduo, which rose over 10% [4] Group 4: Economic Indicators - U.S. Treasury yields fluctuated post-Fed announcement, with the 10-year yield rising by 6.3 basis points and the 2-year yield increasing by 5.62 basis points [4] - The dollar initially fell by 0.4% but later rebounded, gaining over 0.8% from its daily low [4] Group 5: AI and Technology Developments - Figure AI's founder announced significant announcements aimed at achieving human-level intelligence within three days [5] - Musk indicated that the Grok 5 model will begin training in a few weeks, expressing optimism about achieving AGI through Grok 5 [5] Group 6: Sector Insights - According to securities firms, the market has upward potential due to the easing of U.S. monetary policy, which may lead to further domestic rate cuts [7] - The economic outlook shows signs of a "weak recovery," with ongoing efforts to boost consumption and the stock market [7] Group 7: Industry Trends - The demand for HDDs is expected to rise significantly, with Western Digital announcing price increases due to unprecedented demand levels [8] - The AI-driven demand for data center storage has notably increased, with HDDs being preferred for their capacity and cost advantages [9] Group 8: Semiconductor Developments - Alibaba's Pingtouge has developed an AI-focused PPU chip that surpasses Nvidia's A800 in key performance metrics [11] - The domestic AI chip market is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating that Pingtouge's RISC-V chip shipments could exceed 10 billion units by 2027 [11]

Important Market News - The Federal Reserve decided to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut since December 2024 [1] - Major U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones up 0.57%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 fell by 0.33% and 0.1% respectively [1] - International precious metal futures generally declined, with COMEX gold futures down 0.82% at $3694.60 per ounce and silver down 2.15% at $41.99 per ounce [1] - Crude oil prices slightly decreased, with WTI crude down 0.85% at $63.97 per barrel and Brent crude down 0.83% at $67.90 per barrel [1] Industry Insights - China Unicom's project on green electricity and intelligent computing centers was highlighted, showcasing partnerships with several domestic brands, including Alibaba's Pingtouge, with a total computing power of 3479P from 1747 devices and 22832 computing cards [2] - The PPU developed by Alibaba's Pingtouge is optimized for large model inference, achieving peak computing power of 120TFLOPS, indicating strong competitive positioning in edge computing and AI inference [3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released a draft for mandatory national standards on intelligent connected vehicles, aiming to enhance safety in the industry [4] - The new standards are expected to benefit hardware with safety attributes, testing institutions, and leading autonomous driving companies, particularly as the cost of LiDAR sensors has significantly decreased [5] - Western Digital announced plans to gradually increase prices for all HDD products due to unprecedented demand levels driven by AI and cloud computing, with expectations of continued price increases in the coming quarters [6] - Micron is expected to provide optimistic earnings guidance, with DRAM and NAND prices projected to rise due to limited supply and unexpected demand [7]

Important Market News - The Federal Reserve decided to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut since December 2024 [1] - Major U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones up 0.57%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 fell by 0.33% and 0.1% respectively [1] - International precious metal futures generally declined, with COMEX gold futures down 0.82% at $3694.60 per ounce and silver down 2.15% at $41.99 per ounce [1] - Oil prices slightly decreased, with WTI crude oil down 0.85% at $63.97 per barrel and Brent crude down 0.83% at $67.90 per barrel [1] Industry Insights - China Unicom's project on green electricity and intelligent computing centers has signed contracts for 1,747 devices and 22,832 computing cards, achieving a total computing power of 3,479P [2] - The performance parameters of Alibaba's PPU, NVIDIA A800, and other computing cards were highlighted, showing that Alibaba's PPU outperforms NVIDIA A800 and is comparable to H20 [2] - The RISC-V architecture from Alibaba's Pingtouge is expected to see shipments exceed 10 billion units by 2027, with a potential global market share of 15% [3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China released a draft for mandatory national standards on intelligent connected vehicles, aiming to enhance safety in the industry [4] - The new standards are expected to benefit hardware with safety attributes, testing institutions, and leading autonomous driving companies [5] - Western Digital announced plans to increase prices for all HDD products due to unprecedented demand levels driven by AI and cloud computing [6] - Micron is expected to provide optimistic earnings guidance, with DRAM and NAND sales and prices projected to rise due to limited supply and unexpected demand [6]

证券日报网讯 德明利9月17日在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司通过多年存储领域的经营和资源 积累，已经形成稳定的存储晶圆采购渠道，与长江存储、长鑫存储、海力士、三星、闪迪等存储原厂或 其主要经销商建立了长期战略合作关系，具备了规模化采购优势，能够为下游客户的开拓提供有力支 撑。 （编辑 袁冠琳） ...

Group 1: Market Trends and Pricing - Micron has announced a price increase of over 10% for consumer products, with potential price hikes of 20%-30% for DDR4, DDR5, LPDDR4X, and LPDDR5X due to market conditions [2][3] - The NAND market is expected to see increased demand in the second half of the year, driven by AI server shipments and new smartphone releases, leading to a comprehensive price rise in the fourth quarter [3] Group 2: Business Growth and Partnerships - The company ranks third in total capacity for enterprise SATA SSDs in China and first among domestic brands, with enterprise PCIe SSDs and RDIMM products being adopted by leading domestic companies [3][4] - The TCM (Technology Cooperation Manufacturing) model is currently in collaboration with SanDisk, accelerating UFS product integration into Tier 1 customer supply chains [4][5] Group 3: Product Development and Performance - The company has launched SOCAMM2, a memory product designed for AI data centers, which offers significant improvements in bandwidth and power efficiency compared to traditional RDIMM [4] - The self-developed main control chips have achieved over 80 million units in deployment by the end of July, with ongoing rapid growth in deployment scale [5]

Group 1: AI Infrastructure and Market Potential - Bernstein's report highlights the massive potential of AI inference systems, predicting a trillion-dollar "super blue ocean" market by 2030, benefiting major tech companies focused on IT hardware and consumer electronics [1][2] - The global AI infrastructure investment wave is expected to reach up to $2 trillion, with Nvidia's CEO forecasting spending on AI infrastructure to hit $3 trillion to $4 trillion before 2030, presenting significant long-term growth opportunities [2] Group 2: Company-Specific Insights - Apple is identified as the "best entry point for the AI inference revolution," with strong pre-order demand for the iPhone 17, particularly in China, indicating robust market interest despite initial criticisms [3][4] - Dell and HPE are expected to benefit from the significant growth in AI server shipments, which should lead to substantial increases in profitability and free cash flow [4][5] Group 3: Storage Demand and Market Dynamics - The surge in AI inference demand is anticipated to drive long-term growth in data storage needs, with Seagate and SanDisk positioned to benefit significantly from this trend [6][8] - NAND flash leader SanDisk has seen a remarkable 500% stock price increase this year, while Seagate and Western Digital have also experienced substantial gains, reflecting the booming storage market driven by AI infrastructure [6][8] Group 4: Future Growth Projections - Data center storage is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of approximately 23% until 2030, with HDD and NAND manufacturers poised to benefit from the ongoing surge in storage demand driven by AI inference [8] - The emergence of AI agents is transforming AI from an information tool to a highly intelligent productivity tool, enhancing operational efficiency across various sectors [7]

Core Viewpoint - Micron Technology (MU.US) has seen a pre-market increase of over 1.6%, reaching $160.38, with stock prices expected to hit new highs following reports of potential price hikes in NAND flash and DRAM products by 20%-30% [1] Group 1: Price Adjustments - Micron Technology has paused NAND flash and DRAM pricing for one week, leading to industry speculation about significant price increases [1] - Sandisk, a NAND manufacturer, has already announced a price increase of over 10% for all channel and consumer products [1] Group 2: Analyst Upgrades - Several major banks have raised their target prices for Micron Technology ahead of earnings releases [1] - Mizuho has increased Micron's target price from $155 to $182 while maintaining an "Outperform" rating, citing positive outlooks for HBM and strong performance in the DRAM-NAND market as key factors for the upgrade [1]

Core Viewpoint - The storage market is experiencing a significant upward trend due to production cuts by major manufacturers, leading to inventory depletion and price increases in both NAND Flash and DRAM markets [1][2]. Group 1: Production Cuts and Market Impact - Major storage manufacturers have announced production cuts: Micron by 10%, Samsung by 15%, SK Hynix by 10% in the first half of the year, and Kioxia starting in December 2024 [1][2]. - As a result of these cuts, the global NAND Flash market price index increased by 9.2% and the DRAM market price index surged by 47.7% in the first half of 2025 [1][2]. Group 2: DRAM Market Dynamics - In Q3 2024, some manufacturers will shift traditional DRAM capacity to higher-margin products like DDR5 and HBM, leading to a price surge for DDR4 and LPDDR4X starting in Q2 [2]. - The average fixed trading price for PC DRAM (DDR4 8Gb 1Gx8) reached $3.90 in July, a 50% increase month-over-month, marking four consecutive months of significant price hikes [2]. Group 3: AI-Driven Demand and Price Trends - Increased capital expenditures in AI by major companies like Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta are driving demand for enterprise storage [3]. - SanDisk announced a price increase of over 10% for its products, citing growth in AI applications and data center storage needs [3]. Group 4: Domestic Market Opportunities - The trend of domestic substitution is gaining momentum, with the potential for "China's cloud infrastructure" to replicate overseas market conditions from Q4 2022 [4][5]. - Domestic storage manufacturers are expected to benefit from the expansion of AI infrastructure and the increasing demand for enterprise-level storage solutions [5]. Group 5: Beneficiary Companies - Key beneficiaries in the storage module sector include Demingli, Jiangbolong, Baiwei Storage, Shannon Chip, and Kaipu Cloud [6]. - Advanced storage manufacturers such as Zhaoyi Innovation, Hengshuo Co., and Beijing Junzheng are also positioned to benefit [6].

Core Viewpoint - The storage market is experiencing a significant price increase driven by supply-side reductions and a surge in demand, marking the beginning of a new upward cycle in the industry [1][3]. Price Increases in Storage Products - Major storage manufacturers, including SanDisk, have announced price hikes across their product lines, effective immediately for new orders, while existing contracts remain unaffected [2]. - As of September 15, the average spot price for DDR4 8Gb (1Gx8) 3200 has risen to $5.33, a more than 260% increase from the first quarter average of $1.47 [2]. - The average spot price for MLC 32Gb 4GBx8 has reached $3.54 as of September 1, reflecting a cumulative increase of 54.29% since the beginning of the year [2]. Factors Driving Price Increases - The current price surge is attributed to structural adjustments on the supply side and a robust demand growth on the demand side [3]. - Major manufacturers, including Samsung and SK Hynix, have announced production cuts, accelerating the market's inventory reduction process [3]. - There is a shift in production capacity from traditional DRAM to higher-margin products like DDR5 and high-bandwidth memory (HBM), tightening the supply of older DRAM products like DDR4 [3]. - Demand is being driven by the explosion of AI applications, large-scale data center construction, and a recovery in the consumer electronics market [3]. - Omdia projects that the global DRAM market size will grow by approximately 17% in Q2 2025, largely due to the rise of generative AI, which is expected to sustain DRAM contract price increases and HBM shipment growth [3]. Performance of Storage-Related Stocks - A total of 40 stocks in the A-share market are involved in the storage industry, with an average increase of 5.36% since September, benefiting from rising storage product prices [4]. - Notable performers include Shannon Chip Creation, Xiechuang Data, and Demingli, with cumulative increases of 79.16%, 38.59%, and 25.01%, respectively [4]. - 17 storage-related stocks reported year-on-year growth in net profit for the first half of the year, with a 55% success rate in profit increases [4]. Company-Specific Developments - Shanghai Xinyang reported a net profit of 133 million yuan in the first half of the year, with its electronic etching materials playing a crucial role in the production of storage chips [5]. - Foreign institutional investors have shown significant interest in storage concept stocks, with 16 stocks being investigated by foreign institutions this year [5]. - Lanke Technology is positioned as a leading player in memory interconnect technology and is the only Chinese company among the three memory interface chip suppliers, poised to benefit from the rapid development of domestic DRAM manufacturers [6].